Conformal Prediction

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55 papers in the last four weeks, up 57% on the four weeks before. 0.3% of all new papers.

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  1. Beyond Fixed False Discovery Rates: Post-Hoc Conformal Selection with E-Variables

    Apr 13, 2026Meiyi Zhu, Osvaldo SimeoneFDR ControlE-Values

    Department of Engineering, King’s College London, WC2R 2LS, London, U.K. · Institute for Intelligent Networked Systems, Northeastern University London, E1 8PH London, U.K.

  2. Uncertainty-Aware Transformers: Conformal Prediction for Language Models

    Apr 10, 2026Abhiram Vellore, Niraj K. JhaLLM Uncertainty EstimationConformal Prediction

    Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Princeton University

  3. From Debate to Decision: Conformal Social Choice for Safe Multi-Agent Deliberation

    Apr 9, 2026Mengdie Flora Wang, Haochen Xie, Guanghui Wang +9LLM Agent SafetySelective Prediction

    AWS Generative AI Innovation Center · HSBC Holdings Plc., HSBC Technology Center, China

  4. Weighted Bayesian Conformal Prediction

    Apr 7, 2026Xiayin Lou, Peng LuoConformal PredictionWeighted Conformal Prediction

    Technical University of Munich · Massachusetts Institute of Technology

  5. Staggered Integral Online Conformal Prediction for Safe Dynamics Adaptation with Multi-Step Coverage Guarantees

    Apr 7, 2026Daniel M. Cherenson, Dimitra PanagouConformal PredictionAdaptive Conformal Inference

    Robotics Department, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA

  6. Debiased Machine Learning for Conformal Prediction of Counterfactual Outcomes Under Runtime Confounding

    Apr 4, 2026Keith Barnatchez, Kevin P. Josey, Rachel C. Nethery +1Counterfactual PredictionConformal Prediction

    Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health · Department of Biostatistics and Informatics, Colorado School of Public Health · Department of Data Science, Dana Farber Cancer Institute

  7. Adaptive Stopping for Multi-Turn LLM Reasoning

    Apr 1, 2026Xiaofan Zhou, Huy Nguyen, Bo Yu +2Efficient Language Model ReasoningConformal Prediction

    Department of Computer Science, University of Illinois Chicago, Chicago, IL 60607, USA · Data science, Augustana College, Rock Island, IL 61201, USA · Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA

  8. Online Reasoning Calibration: Test-Time Training Enables Generalizable Conformal LLM Reasoning

    Apr 1, 2026Cai Zhou, Zekai Wang, Menghua Wu +6Language Model CalibrationConfidence Estimation in Language Models

    Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (MIT EECS) · Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (MIT CSAIL) · Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems (MIT LIDS) +1

  9. Conformal Prediction Assessment: A Framework for Conditional Coverage Evaluation and Selection

    Mar 28, 2026Zheng Zhou, Xiangfei Zhang, Chongguang Tao +1Conformal Prediction

    Qiuzhen College, Tsinghua University · Yau Mathematical Sciences Center, Tsinghua University

  10. Conformalized Signal Temporal Logic Inference under Covariate Shift

    Mar 28, 2026Yixuan Wang, Danyang Li, Matthew Cleaveland +2Signal Temporal LogicConformal Prediction

    Mingyu Cai and Yixuan Wang are with Mechanical Engineering, University of California, Riverside, CA, 92521, USA. · Danyang Li and Roberto Tron are with Mechanical Engineering, Boston University. · Matthew Cleaveland is with MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA, 02421, USA

  11. Contrastive Conformal Sets

    Mar 27, 2026Yahya Alkhatib, Wee Peng TayContrastive LearningConformal Prediction

    School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore

  12. Conformal Prediction for Nonparametric Instrumental Regression

    Mar 26, 2026Masahiro KatoRegression Prediction IntervalsConformal Prediction

    The University of Tokyo

  13. Conformal Selective Prediction with General Risk Control

    Mar 25, 2026Tian Bai, Ying JinSelective PredictionConformal Risk Control

    Department of Statistics, Stanford University · Department of Statistics and Data Science, University of Pennsylvania

  14. Conformal Cross-Modal Active Learning

    Mar 24, 2026Huy Hoang Nguyen, Cédric Jung, Shirin Salehi +3Active LearningConformal Prediction

    AIT Austrian Institute of Technology · Automation & Control Institute, Technical University of Vienna · Chair of Information Theory and Data Analytics (INDA), RWTH Aachen University

  15. CRPS-Optimal Binning for Univariate Conformal Regression

    Mar 23, 2026Paolo ToccaceliConditional Distribution EstimationRegression Prediction Intervals

    Centre for Reliable Machine Learning, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham, Surrey TW20 0EX, UK

  16. TrustFed: Enabling Trustworthy Medical AI under Data Privacy Constraints

    Mar 23, 2026Vagish Kumar, Syed Bahauddin Alam, Souvik ChakrabortyFederated LearningUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Applied Mechanics Indian Institute of Technology Delhi · Grainger College of Engineering Nuclear, Plasma & Radiological Engineering Department National Center for Supercomputing Applications, Urbana, IL, USA · Department of Applied Mechanics Yardi School of Artificial Intelligence (ScAI) Grainger College of Engineering Indian Institute of Technology Delhi University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA

  17. Bridging Conformal Prediction and Scenario Optimization: Discarded Constraints and Modular Risk Allocation

    Mar 19, 2026Giuseppe C. CalafioreConformal PredictionChance-Constrained Optimization

    Department of Electronics and Telecommunications Politecnico di Torino Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, 10129 Torino, Italy

  18. Efficient Federated Conformal Prediction with Group-Conditional Guarantee

    Mar 15, 2026Haifeng Wen, Osvaldo Simeone, Hong XingGroup-Conditional Conformal PredictionConformal Prediction

    1IoT Thrust, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou), Guangzhou, China · Institute for Intelligent Networked Systems (INSI), Northeastern University London, London, UK · Department of ECE, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, HK SAR

  19. Conformal e-prediction in the presence of confounding

    Mar 11, 2026Vladimir Vovk, Ruodu WangConformal Prediction

  20. Beyond Accuracy: Reliability and Uncertainty Estimation in Convolutional Neural Networks

    Mar 11, 2026Sanne Ruijs, Alina Kosiakova, Farrukh JavedUncertainty QuantificationUncertainty Calibration

    Department of Economics, Lund University, Sweden · Department of Statistics, Lund University, Sweden

  21. Formation-Aware Adaptive Conformalized Perception for Safe Leader-Follower Multi-Robot Systems

    Mar 9, 2026Richie R. Suganda, Bin HuRobot SafetyMulti-Robot Formation Control

    Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Houston, Houston, TX 77004, USA. · Department of Engineering Technology, University of Houston, Houston, TX 77004, USA.

  22. Beyond Data Splitting: Full-Data Conformal Prediction by Differential Privacy

    Mar 8, 2026Young Hyun Cho, Jordan AwanConformal PredictionDifferential Privacy

    Purdue University · University of Pittsburgh

  23. CREDO: Epistemic-Aware Conformalized Credal Envelopes for Regression

    Mar 6, 2026Luben M. C. Cabezas, Sabina J. Sloman, Bruno M. Resende +3Regression Prediction IntervalsConformal Prediction

    Department of Statistics, Federal University of S˜ao Carlos, S˜ao Carlos, Brazil · Institute of Mathematics and Computer Science , University of S˜ao Paulo, S˜ao Carlos, Brazil · Universit´e Grenoble Alpes, Inria, CNRS, Grenoble INP, LJK, France +1

  24. Uncertainty-Aware Solar Flare Regression

    Mar 5, 2026Jinsu Hong, Chetraj Pandey, Berkay AydinRegression Prediction IntervalsConformal Prediction

    Computer Science, Georgia State University, Atlanta, USA · Computer Science, Texas Christian University, Texas, USA

  25. Conformal Graph Prediction with Z-Gromov-Wasserstein Distances

    Mar 2, 2026Gabriel Melo, Thibaut de Saivre, Anna Calissano +1Conformal Prediction

    LTCI, Télécom Paris, Intistut Polytechnique de Paris, Palaiseau, France · Department of Statistical Science, University College London, London, UK

  26. Partial Causal Structure Learning for Valid Selective Conformal Inference under Interventions

    Mar 2, 2026Amir Asiaee, Kavey Aryan, James P. LongSelective InferenceCausal Structure Learning

    Department of Biostatistics, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, TN 37203, USA · Department of Informatics, King’s College London, London, UK · Department of Biostatistics, MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, USA

  27. Co-optimization for Adaptive Conformal Prediction

    Mar 2, 2026Xiaoyi Su, Zhixin Zhou, Rui LuoConformal PredictionRegression Prediction Intervals

    Department of Systems Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China · Alpha Benito Research, Los Angeles, USA

  28. Conformal Prediction for Risk-Controlled Medical Entity Extraction Across Clinical Domains

    Mar 1, 2026Manil Shrestha, Edward KimLanguage Model CalibrationConformal Prediction

    Department of Computer Science, Drexel University, Philadelphia, USA

  29. Efficient Conformal Volumetry for Template-Based Segmentation

    Feb 28, 2026Matt Y. Cheung, Ashok Veeraraghavan, Guha BalakrishnanSegmentation Uncertainty EstimationMedical Image Analysis

    Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering Rice University Houston, TX 77005, USA

  30. Proof-of-Perception: Certified Tool-Using Multimodal Reasoning with Compositional Conformal Guarantees

    Feb 27, 2026Arya Fayyazi, Haleh AkramiMultimodal ReasoningMultimodal Tool Use

    University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA · Nuro, Mountain View, CA