Conformal Prediction

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Period ending 2026-09-21

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148 papers

Latest in Conformal Prediction

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Conformal Candidate Certification for Offline Model-Based Optimization
Jun 13, 2026Seungjin ChoiConformal Calibration Conformal Prediction
Audited Conformal Prediction for Classification under Unknown Distribution Shift
Jun 12, 2026Yanfei Zhou, Rizal Fathony, Nam H. Nguyen +1Conformal Prediction Distribution Shifts
Conformal calibration and look-elsewhere effect in anomaly detection for new-physics searches
Jun 11, 2026Jack Y. Araz, Michael SpannowskyAnomaly Score High Energy Physics
From Uncertain Judgments to Calibrated Rankings: Conformal Elo Estimation for LLM Evaluation
Jun 11, 2026Bora Kargi, David SalinasLarge Language Model Evaluation Judges
Policy-driven Conformal Prediction for Trustworthy QoT Estimation
Jun 10, 2026Kiarash Rezaei, Omran Ayoub, Paolo Monti +1Conformal Prediction Conformal Calibration
Generalized Conformal Predictive Systems Under Distributional Shifts
Jun 9, 2026Jef Jonkers, Johanna ZiegelConformal Prediction Distribution Shifts
SPACR: Single-Pass Adaptive Training of Uncertainty-Aware Conformal Regressors
Jun 9, 2026Soundouss Messoudi, Sylvain Rousseau, Sébastien DesterckeConformal Prediction
Report the Floor: A Training-Free Conformal Interval Is a Mandatory Baseline for Probabilistic Time-Series Forecasting
Jun 8, 2026Valery ManokhinMultivariate Forecasting Conformal Prediction
Operator learning for the 2D incompressible Navier-Stokes equations: a conformal prediction approach in the data-scarce regime
Jun 7, 2026Weinan Wang, Bowen Gang, Hao DengProbabilistic Operator Learning Shallow Water Equations
Conformal Prediction for Neural Operators: Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification in Physics Simulation
Jun 7, 2026Michael ChinReliable Uncertainty Quantification Neural Operators
Conformal Risk-Averse Decision Making with Action Conditional Guarantee
Jun 4, 2026Zihan Zhu, Shayan Kiyani, George Pappas +1Conformal Prediction Conditional-Value-At-Risk
Conformal Language Modeling via Posterior Sampling
Jun 2, 2026Nicolas Emmenegger, Theo X. Olausson, Armando Solar-Lezama +1Large Language Model Generation Large Language Model Post-Training
Bayesian Tensor Decomposition with Diffusion Model Prior
Jun 2, 2026Zerui Tao, Qibin ZhaoDiffusion Priors Low-Rank Factorization
The Ghost Annotator: a Framework to Explore Human Label Variation in Content Moderation through Conformal Prediction
Jun 1, 2026Mirko Lai, Alessandra Urbinati, Simona Frenda +2Human Annotators Large Language Model Uncertainty
One Transit Is All You Need: Detecting Exoplanets Through Learned Stellar Behaviour with EXOVEIL
Jun 1, 2026Pratik PriyanshuExoplanet Atmospheres Phase-Folded Light Curves
Does Compression Preserve Uncertainty? A Unified Benchmark for Quantized and Sparse LLMs via Conformal Prediction
Jun 1, 2026Yujia Tong, Yuxi Wang, Yunyang Wan +3Large Language Model Uncertainty Large Language Model Compression
Multi-Agent Conformal Prediction with Personalized Statistical Validity
May 30, 2026Martin V. Vejling, Christophe A. N. Biscio, Adrien Mazoyer +2Conformal Prediction Heterogeneity
DistMatch: Adaptive Binning via Distribution Matching for Robust Sequential Conformal Prediction
May 30, 2026Enver Menadjiev, Jihyeon Seong, Jisu Yeo +1Conformal Prediction Quantile Regression
Parameter-Free and Group Conditional Online Conformal Prediction
May 29, 2026Beepul Bharti, Ambar Pal, Jacopo Teneggi +1Finite-Sample Coverage Guarantees Conformal Prediction
Conformal Reliability: A New Evaluation Metric for Conditional Generation
May 29, 2026Yachen Gao, Xinwei Sun, Yikai Wang +4Conformal Prediction Evaluation Metrics
Leave a Window Out: Modifying the Jackknife for Predictive Inference in Time Series
May 28, 2026Hanyang Jiang, Rina Foygel Barber, Ashwin Pananjady +1Conformal Prediction Multivariate Forecasting
PINE: Pruning Boosted Tree Ensembles with Conformal In-Distribution Prediction Equivalence
May 27, 2026Haruki Yajima, Yusuke MatsuiDecision Trees Heterogeneous Pruning Scores
SAFEVPR: Patch-Based Conformal Verification for Safe Cross-Condition Sequence Visual Place Recognition
May 27, 2026Ha Sier, Jiaqiang Zhang, Zhuo Zou +2Visual Place Recognition Vision Sensors
Distribution-Aware Conformal Prediction: A Framework for generating efficient prediction intervals for time series
May 26, 2026Daniel Schweizer, Peter Kuhn, Jayant Sharma +3Conformal Prediction Quantile Regression
Cluster Frequency Conformal Prediction for Local Coverage
May 24, 2026Tomer Lavi, Bracha Shapira, Nadav RappoportConformal Prediction
Multicalibration Boosting: Theory, Convergence, and Transferability
May 23, 2026Hanxuan Ye, Hongzhe LiConformal Prediction Multicalibration and Calibration
Empirical Bayes Conformal Prediction for Vision and Language Models
May 22, 2026Jiapeng Zeng, Yogesh Prabhu, Zhanpeng Zeng +2Conformal Prediction Nonconformity Scores
SLIP-RS: Structured-Attribute Language-Image Pre-Training for Remote Sensing Object Detection
May 22, 2026Chenxu Wang, Yuxuan Li, Yunheng Li +3Fine-Grained Perception Object Detection
Online Conformal Prediction with Corrupted Feedback
May 19, 2026Bowen Wang, Matteo Zecchin, Osvaldo SimeoneConformal Prediction Finite-Sample Coverage Guarantees
Conformal Prediction via Transported Beta Laws
May 18, 2026Thiago R. Ramos, Helton Graziadei, Luben M. C. CabezasConformal Prediction Conformal Calibration
SAGA: A Sequence-Adaptive Generative Architecture for Multi-Horizon Probabilistic Forecasting with Adaptive Temporal Conformal Prediction
May 18, 2026Gustav Olaf Yunus Laitinen-Fredriksson Lundström-Imanov, Hafize Gonca CömertConformal Prediction Conditional Distribution
Concise and Logically Consistent Conformal Sets for Neuro-Symbolic Concept-Based Models
May 18, 2026Samuele Bortolotti, Emanuele Marconato, Andrea Pugnana +2Neuro-Symbolic Framework Conformal Prediction
Online Conformal Prediction for Non-Exchangeable Panel Data
May 18, 2026Daohong Tu, Kay GieseckeConformal Prediction Conformal Calibration
Skew-adaptive conformal prediction
May 15, 2026Paulo C. Marques F., Helton GraziadeiConformal Prediction Quantile Regression
On the Burden of Achieving Fairness in Conformal Prediction
May 14, 2026Ziang Gao, Pengqi Liu, Archer Yi Yang +3Conformal Prediction Conformal Calibration
Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Reliable and Explainable Medical Image Classification
May 13, 2026One Octadion, Novanto Yudistira, Lailil MuflikhahMedical Image Classification Conformal Prediction
Online Conformal Prediction: Enforcing monotonicity via Online Optimization
May 12, 2026Eduardo Ochoa Rivera, Ambuj TewariConformal Prediction Quantile Regression
Multi-Variable Conformal Prediction: Optimizing Prediction Sets without Data Splitting
May 12, 2026Laura Lützow, Simone Garatti, Marco C. Campi +2Conformal Prediction Finite-Sample Coverage Guarantees
PASC: Pipeline-Aware Conformal Prediction with Joint Coverage Guarantees for Multi-Stage NLP and LLM Pipelines
May 12, 2026Varun KotteLarge Language Model Pipelines Conformal Prediction
Partial Model Sharing Improves Byzantine Resilience in Federated Conformal Prediction
May 12, 2026Ehsan Lari, Reza Arablouei, Stefan WernerByzantine Attacks Conformal Prediction
RareCP: Regime-Aware Retrieval for Efficient Conformal Prediction
May 9, 2026Manuel Heurich, Maximilian Granz, Tim LandgrafConformal Prediction Rare Events
CONTRA: Conformal Prediction Region via Normalizing Flow Transformation
May 8, 2026Zhenhan Fang, Aixin Tan, Jian HuangConformal Prediction Normalizing Flows
GRAPHLCP: Structure-Aware Localized Conformal Prediction on Graphs
May 8, 2026Peyman Baghershahi, Fangxin Wang, Debmalya Mandal +1Graph Neural Networks Conformal Prediction
Aggregation in conformal e-classification
May 8, 2026Vladimir VovkConformal Prediction Conformal Calibration
Probabilistic Object Detection with Conformal Prediction
May 8, 2026Christopher Ries, Moussa Kassem Sbeyti, Nicolas Bianco +1Conformal Prediction Object Detection
TRACE: Transport Alignment Conformal Prediction via Diffusion and Flow Matching Models
May 8, 2026Zhenhan Fang, Aixin Tan, Jian HuangConformal Prediction Nonconformity Scores
Conformal Agent Error Attribution
May 7, 2026Naihe Feng, Yi Sui, Shiyi Hou +2Multi-Agent Systems Visual Attribution
Inductive Venn-Abers and related regressors
May 7, 2026Ivan Petej, Vladimir VovkConformal Prediction Binary Classification
When Does Trimming Help Conformal Prediction? A Retained-Law Diagnostic under Calibration Contamination
May 7, 2026Congye WangContamination Conformal Prediction
Confidence is the key: how conformal prediction enhances the generative design of permeable peptides
May 7, 2026Laura van Weesep, Sunay Chankeshwara, Leonardo De Maria +3Cyclic Peptides Conformal Prediction
Online Localized Conformal Prediction
May 6, 2026Yuheng Lai, Garvesh RaskuttiConformal Prediction Conformal Inference
Delving into Non-Exchangeability for Conformal Prediction in Graph-Structured Multivariate Time Series
May 6, 2026Ruichao Guo, Xingyao Han, Luo Wenshui +3Conformal Prediction Multivariate Time Series Forecasting
Multimodal Learning on Low-Quality Data with Conformal Predictive Self-Calibration
May 5, 2026Xun Jiang, Yufan Gu, Disen Hu +5Robust Multimodal Learning Conformal Prediction
Training-Free Probabilistic Time-Series Forecasting with Conformal Seasonal Pools
May 5, 2026Valery ManokhinMultivariate Forecasting Conformal Prediction
Differentiable Optimization Layered Safety-Critical Control for Risk-Aware Navigation via Conformal Prediction
May 5, 2026Jinyang Dong, Shizhen Wu, Yongchun FangObstacle Avoidance Control Barrier Functions
Conformalized Percentile Interval: Finite Sample Validity and Improved Conditional Performance
May 4, 2026Ran Zou, Wanrong Zhu, Bin NanConformal Prediction Quantile Regression
Weight Clipping for Robust Conformal Inference under Unbounded Covariate Shifts
May 3, 2026James Wang, Surbhi GoelConformal Inference Conformal Prediction
Robust Conditional Conformal Prediction via Branched Normalizing Flow
May 3, 2026Rui Xu, Xingyuan Chen, Wenxing Huang +4Conformal Prediction Conformal Calibration
Stable Localized Conformal Prediction via Transduction
May 2, 2026Yinjie Min, Liuhua Peng, Changliang ZouConformal Prediction Localization Methods
Optimal Spatio-Temporal Decoupling for Bayesian Conformal Prediction
May 1, 2026Yu-Hsueh Fang, Chia-Yen LeeConformal Prediction Bayesian

Jun 13, 2026 · stat.MLJ/K move · Enter open · S save

Conformal Candidate Certification for Offline Model-Based Optimization

Seungjin Choi

CROID Research and aSSIST University, Seoul, Korea.

Offline model-based optimization (MBO) proposes candidates by optimizing a surrogate trained on a fixed historical dataset. Because candidates are deliberately out-of-distribution, surrogate rankings are least reliable exactly where the optimizer is most aggressive, yet existing methods provide no per-candidate statistical certificate that a design meets a target threshold. We propose \emph{Conformal Candidate Certification} (CCC), a post-hoc wrapper that attaches a calibrated one-sided lower bound to each candidate and advances only those whose bound exceeds the target. We show that entropy-regularized surrogate maximization induces a Gibbs-tilted proposal, so the same surrogate supplies importance weights for weighted conformal prediction without a separate density-ratio estimation step. In a controlled synthetic study, CCC certifies

16.7\%

of an aggressive proposal pool with empirical coverage 0.990 at nominal 0.90, while standard conformal prediction ignoring the covariate shift collapses to 0.416 coverage.

Conformal Calibration Conformal Prediction Llm-Based Optimization Modeling Entropy-Regularized Equilibrium Selection Online Gibbs Measures

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