Decision Tree Learning

Conventional decision tree algorithms produce effective, transparent models that can be audited, communicated, and deployed independently of the training data, but require learning every new task from scratch. In contrast, tabular foundation models demonstrate that meta-learning from a synthetic prior distribution enables strong in-context prediction for previously unseen tasks, especially in small-sample regimes. However, this approach does not produce a standalone model that can be inspected in isolation. We introduce MotherTree, a tabular transformer that meta-learns decision tree induction: given a training set for a new task, it outputs a hard, axis-aligned decision tree, equivalent in form to classically trained trees, in a single forward pass. MotherTree is pre-trained on a synthetic prior using stochastic gradient descent without requiring reference trees for supervision. On established benchmarks with controlled sample size, the approach is competitive with size-matched trees from common algorithms: recursive partitioning, gradient-based tree learning, globally optimal trees, and distillation from tabular foundation models. Notably, MotherTree consistently improves over from-scratch gradient-based learning and acts as a strong initializer: task-specific tuning of the generated tree outperforms the corresponding from-scratch learner on all benchmarks and sample sizes. These results show that meta-learning can provide effective inductive biases for learning stand-alone, small decision tree classifiers.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) possess rich world knowledge and impressive generalization capabilities, their direct application to tabular data classification is hindered by high inference costs and limited interpretability. In contrast, decision trees are fast and transparent but often underperform in low-data regimes. In this work, we propose a novel framework that bridges these paradigms by distilling LLM knowledge into interpretable decision trees under a few-shot learning setting. Instead of directly prompting the LLM to generate full trees, which is often unstable and inefficient, we develop a three-stage paradigm that prompts the LLM to generate rules and organize the rules into a tree. Experiments on multiple real-world tabular datasets demonstrate that our method achieves superior accuracy and interpretability with significantly lower prompting overhead compared to existing baselines.

The integration of model-based and data-driven paradigms provides a powerful framework for fault diagnosis by combining the interpretability of analytical redundancy relations, i.e., input-output relations that are used as diagnosis indicators in model-based diagnosis, with the adaptability of learning techniques. DT4X is a recent diagnosis algorithm that uses symbolic regression to generate multivariate relations leveraging some properties of analytical redundancy relations and uses them as split functions in a decision tree. However, its symbolic regression procedure optimizes only the separation between two selected classes at each node, often fragmenting the remaining classes and degrading both interpretability and diagnosis performance. This paper introduces DT4X+, an enhanced version of DT4X that modifies the construction of training sets and the symbolic-regression loss so that expressions separate the target classes while preserving the coherence of non-target classes. The resulting relations become fully consistent with ARR properties and lead to more informative splits, improved robustness, and better performance on dynamic-system datasets. Experiments conducted on several benchmark systems demonstrate the benefits of this enhanced formulation.

We develop an exact linear programming (LP) formulation for bounded-depth classification trees with binary features, using a junction-tree representation. The formulation is integral and supports recursive subtree optimization. Exact reductions make the model smaller while preserving the optimal value and recovery of an optimal tree. The reduced model supports two solution methods: column generation and message passing. Column generation solves integral restricted LPs and uses bounds over the full feasible domain to certify optimality. Message passing recursively combines optimal subtree costs. Both methods solve common subtree problems that, once the preceding tree decisions are fixed, can be evaluated independently and in parallel. Computational experiments show that the exact reductions substantially reduce the size of the junction-tree formulation. The resulting linear programming formulation certifies instances for which the tested mixed-integer formulation does not establish optimality within the same computational budget, while the column-generation and message-passing methods certify more instances and achieve an order-of-magnitude reduction in geometric-mean runtime relative to an existing state-of-the-art exact method for optimal classification trees.

Random forests (RFs) predict well but are opaque, whereas single decision trees are interpretable but unstable. Artificial representative trees (ARTs) were developed as interpretable surrogate models for RFs, but their use as standalone prediction models with uncertainty quantification has not been systematically investigated. We combine ARTs with leaf-wise Mondrian conformal predictive systems (CPS), enabling a single tree to provide continuous predictions, prediction intervals, and probabilities of exceeding arbitrary thresholds. We compared ARTs with CPS against decision trees with CPS and separate regression and probability trees across five simulation scenarios, 21 benchmark datasets, and a cross-sectional NHANES example data set. Repeated cross-validation assessed predictive performance, interpretability, and stability. ARTs with CPS yield compact, structurally stable trees with substantially more reproducible split-variable selection than decision trees across benchmark datasets and NHANES. Decision trees showed slightly better predictive performance and narrower prediction intervals, while coverage was broadly comparable. CPS-based trees generally achieved lower and less variable Brier scores than multi-model approaches. Combining ARTs with CPS therefore provides a single, interpretable, and stable model for continuous predictions and calibrated probabilities, balancing predictive performance with reproducibility and transparency in settings where stability and interpretability are essential.

The shipping industry has a significant impact on the global economy, emphasizing the need for operational availability and safety through the use of effective maintenance techniques. During the last decades, predictive maintenance (PdM) has emerged as a promising solution compared to the existing conventional maintenance systems. This is because it offers several advantageous functions, such as damage predictions for vessel components, reduced downtime, improved and extended life of machinery, as well as higher safety during voyages. However, existing methodologies developed for performing PdM do not provide explanations of their results to users, so that they can understand the failures that may occur. To address this limitation, this paper proposes a novel framework based on a fuzzy decision tree and a deep residual neural network, aiming to perform explainable PdM on naval vessels. The proposed framework is able to generate fuzzy local rules based on the dataset used, and can provide explanations of its outcomes, using cause-and-effect relationships, in a way that are understandable to users, thereby gaining their trust. Experiments using a publicly available dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework, as it achieves an accuracy of 99.24%.

Many real-world decisions require prioritizing high-risk cases, such as clinicians prioritizing high-risk patients before lower-risk ones. Falling rule lists (FRLs), which are ordered if--then rules with monotonically decreasing risks, provide an interpretable framework for such tasks; however, their single-path structure yields a highly restricted model class. We introduce falling trees, a new family of interpretable models that enforces the same monotonic risk constraint while permitting tree-structured branching. We present GRAVITree, a novel dynamic-programming-with-bounds algorithm for learning the Rashomon set of falling trees under depth and branching constraints. Our formulation can interpolate between rule lists and full decision trees, enabling user-desired model expressivity. In a new clinical dataset and in many public classification benchmarks, falling trees match or outperform FRLs and other interpretable baselines, often producing more sparse decisions for high-risk instances. Our results show that falling trees strike a practical balance between interpretability, expressiveness, and risk prioritization for high-stakes settings.

Classification and regression trees are typically constructed using a greedy splitting rule that maximizes the immediate reduction in prediction error at each node. Although this strategy is computationally efficient, it can miss splits that yield small short-term gains but create substantial downstream improvements after further partitioning. We propose a look-ahead tree-building method that evaluates each candidate split by the prediction error reduction achieved after growing a conventional CART subtree below that split. Because the full look-ahead procedure can be computationally expensive, we also describe a smart look-ahead algorithm that learns downstream split values using node-level features. The proposed framework preserves the interpretability of recursive partitioning while improving split selection in hierarchical or interaction-driven settings. We conduct a simulation study comparing conventional, full look-ahead, and smart look-ahead methods under several settings and apply the proposed methods to analyze two real data examples demonstrating the merit of the new methods.

Decision trees are prized for their interpretability and strong performance on tabular data, but popular greedy top-down induction algorithms can yield suboptimal and unnecessarily complex structures. Optimal decision tree methods address this through global optimization, yet remain restricted to axis-aligned threshold splits, which limit the expressivity of each node and often force deep, complex trees to capture non-linear feature effects. Shape Generalized Trees (SGTs) generalize threshold splits to learnable univariate shape functions, improving expressivity and enabling more compact trees. However, existing SGT induction algorithms are greedy and offer no optimality guarantees. In this work, we introduce Literati, the first algorithm for optimal SGT induction. We propose a novel AND/OR graph formulation of the problem that jointly optimizes tree structure and shape function complexity. To solve this AND/OR graph, we develop an AO*-based algorithm with two enhancements that improve anytime performance while preserving optimality: a secondary heuristic for OR-node selection and a round-robin policy for AND-node exploration. Across 24 real-world datasets, Literati achieves higher training and test accuracy than state-of-the-art tree approaches.

Decision trees are among the most widely used models in machine learning, largely due to their transparent decision logic, making them well-suited for high-stakes decision-making contexts. However, most existing learning algorithms focus on predictive performance, overlooking the joint optimization of other desirable properties, such as structural sparsity. In this work we propose TREVIS, an approach for learning decision trees with respect to complex objectives, based on the exploration of the latent space of a Tree Transformer Variational Auto-Encoder (TTVAE). By mapping decision trees onto latent representations, TREVIS replaces the discrete search space with a continuous one, enabling gradient-based optimization via a differentiable surrogate model. We experiment with TREVIS for learning decision trees that jointly optimize predictive performance and sparsity. Results show that TREVIS discovers decision trees matching the predictive performance of existing near-optimal algorithms while improving their structural sparsity.

Deep learning-based building footprint extraction from high-resolution imagery often produces topologically inconsistent vectors unfit for direct GIS database ingestion. To address this, we present a multidomain GeoAI quality control framework that automates error detection to systematically purify vector footprint databases. Candidate footprints were generated across five UAV survey sites in Bangladesh using U-Net (ResNet-34) and SAM-LoRA (ViT-B). The extracted raster masks were vectorized, geometrically regularized, and consolidated under a spatial-exclusivity constraint to eliminate duplicate representations. We used twenty-four predictors capturing geometric, spatial-contextual, and raster-derived spectral and texture properties. Machine Learning (ML) classifiers were trained on a development partition (Sites B-D) and rigorously validated on a spatially independent test set (Site E) excluded from hyperparameter tuning and class balancing. The experimental results demonstrate that geometric and spatial-contextual predictors using Decision Tree (DT) provide the most effective discriminatory evidence for identifying object-level boundary deformations. DT achieved an accuracy of 95.31%, an F1-score of 91.06%, and a Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) of 0.880 on the unseen testing site. At the database level, this framework successfully identified 87.34% of erroneous footprints while maintaining 98.31% of acceptable structures, reducing the residual error proportion from 27.32% to 4.62% and improving final database purity to 95.38%. This translates into a relative error reduction of 83.09%. The findings indicate that post-segmentation object-level ML provides a highly transferable, robust mechanism for automated quality assurance in production-ready geographic information system (GIS) workflows.

In the operation of machine learning models, model update is a fundamental process that requires careful consideration of its impact on downstream decision-making. Particularly when operating explainable models, changes in explanations resulting from model updates can lead to detrimental outcomes for users. Decision trees, due to their high transparency, are frequently employed in risk-sensitive decision-making and serve as a prominent example in which the aforementioned issue is evident. However, existing research addressing similar issues has focused on explanations based on feature contributions, and thus cannot handle explanations derived from tree structures. Therefore, this paper proposes the Backward Compatibility Loss in Tree-based eXplanations (BCLTX), a loss metric that suppresses changes in decision tree explanations before and after updates. Furthermore, we design CART with Backward Compatibility in Tree-based eXplanations (CART-BCTX), a lightweight algorithm that improves upon CART for the decision tree update problem under BCLTX. Experimental results using 10 real-world datasets, including both classification and regression tasks, show that CART-BCTX achieves favorable trade-offs between prediction performances and BCLTX values, with comparable computation times to CART, regardless of the task.

Probabilistic Regression Trees (PRTrees) are a smooth and consistent alternative to classical regression trees, producing continuous predictions through probabilistic split assignments. This paper extends the PRTree framework to accommodate missing predictor values directly during tree construction, eliminating the need for prior imputation. Three strategies are proposed, each exploiting the available information differently: a uniform-probability approach, a partial-observation approach, and a dimension-reduced smoothing approach. These modifications are defined to preserve the fundamental probabilistic properties of the original methodology, including probability conservation and marginal compatibility, under arbitrary patterns of missing covariate values. The proposed methods are evaluated on several real-world datasets exhibiting different levels of missingness and are compared with classical regression trees. The results show that the effectiveness of probabilistic tree construction depends strongly on the treatment of missing observations. Across the considered datasets, the fill strategy emerged as the dominant modeling component, often exerting a larger influence on predictive performance than either the smoothing distribution or the proxy-selection criterion. In datasets where a substantial proportion of observations contained missing predictor values, the proposed methods frequently outperformed CART, while maintaining the interpretability and flexibility of tree-based models.

The Rashomon effect describes the phenomenon that many models can achieve nearly equivalent performance on the same learning task, with significant ramifications for robustness, feature importance, and customizability. These use cases motivate the computation of Rashomon sets: the set of all models whose regularized loss is near-optimal. Decision trees are one of the few model classes for which Rashomon sets can be fully enumerated, but this computation has always been conditional on a binarization of the original data, either restricting which splits each tree is allowed to make or substantially increasing the complexity of an already difficult combinatorial problem. We introduce the first algorithm that exactly enumerates decision-tree Rashomon sets while exploiting the ordered structure of continuous features. We further develop a relaxation for approximate enumeration and an anytime algorithm that progressively refines the set of candidate thresholds, producing increasingly detailed approximations that converge to the continuous-feature Rashomon set. Experiments show that coarse binarization can miss many trees, important features, and predictive multiplicity; our algorithms achieve orders-of-magnitude speedups over existing enumeration methods, with approximations providing further speedups while maintaining near-perfect recall.

Optimal decision trees (ODTs) are compact, interpretable machine learning models that globally optimize a given objective, but their scalability remains challenging. While recent work has proposed a variety of search strategies to improve scalability, the precise contribution of each strategy remains unclear. To address this gap, we introduce a general algorithmic framework for ODTs that instantiates previously used search strategies and enables the definition of new ones. This provides a common lens through which to understand and compare different strategies, which we use to empirically investigate the effect of 18 search strategies. Compared to the state of the art, the best strategy in our evaluation achieves significantly better anytime performance for classification, and improves runtime by more than an order of magnitude for regression.

Over the past decade, decision trees have been used to represent controllers (a.k.a. policies) in an explainable way, with dtControl2 as a current state-of-the-art tool. However, for systems that are large or have many corner cases, even such representations tend to be too complex and not human-comprehensible. Unfortunately, reducing the size of the decision tree is not straightforward, as missing just a single crucial case might result in an incorrect controller. We tackle this issue in the setting of Markov decision processes, extending dtControl2 by "$\varepsilon$" functionality: Given an allowed imprecision $\varepsilon \geq 0$, we construct a smaller decision tree, distilling the essence of the controller, while still guaranteeing its $\varepsilon$-optimality. This enables us to provide tunably simpler explanations, omitting a controllable amount of detail. Our tool constructs decision trees that are orders of magnitude smaller than the state of the art.

Swarm Learning is a decentralized collaborative learning mechanism that allows multiple organizations to train a shared model without central coordination or direct data sharing. In typical horizontal Swarm Learning, datasets across sites are usually assumed to share the same feature set. However, in real-world applications, sites often have partially overlapping features because measurements, protocols, and available covariates differ across sites. This feature heterogeneity creates a practical issue for machine learning algorithms such as Random Forests. Specifically, when decision trees are pooled into a global Random Forest, inference at a given site can become ill-defined if a traversal encounters a split on a feature that is not available locally, often forcing organizations to discard site-specific variables upfront. In this paper, we address feature heterogeneity in Swarm Learning with Random Forests under partially overlapping feature spaces. We propose several deterministic and probabilistic inference-time strategies that resolve such missing splits without restricting training to the intersection of features. We evaluate the methods on nine datasets and demonstrate that they outperform both the intersection baseline and locally trained models across a broad range of scenarios.

We introduce COAT (Counterfactual Optimal Action Tree), a framework for learning interpretable prescriptive policies from observational data. COAT combines counterfactual outcome estimation with large-scale mixed-integer optimization, using column generation to translate causal predictions into feasible, transparent decisions under business and regulatory constraints. We apply COAT to airline ancillary pricing, a setting characterized by complex business rules and limited experimental flexibility. In a 17-week field pilot with a major global airline, COAT increased upsell revenue per booking by 6.9%, with the airline projecting $50-$150 million in incremental annual premium seat revenue across eligible domestic markets. The success of the pilot led to scaled adoption and informed broader AI-driven decision initiatives within the organization.

Decision trees generate interpretable if--then rules, yet they contain irrelevant conditions (IRCs). These IRCs arise from the structural mechanism of tree splitting and persist even in modern optimal sparse tree induction algorithms. Existing IRC deletion methods overlook this structural mechanism; therefore, they either preserve the original tree too loosely to remain reliable, or too strictly to achieve meaningful simplification. This study provides theoretical foundations for reliable IRC deletion by establishing theorems and propositions related to the underlying IRC mechanism. The key finding is that a binary split shifts class proportions in opposite directions relative to the parent. Specifically, an increase in the class-1 proportion along one branch necessitates an increase in the class-0 proportion along its sibling, thereby generating a C1-link and a C0-link. Based on this structural fact, we propose a structural IRC deletion framework. Relative to each leaf, links that increase the leaf-class proportion are matched, whereas links that increase the proportion of the opposite leaf-class are mismatched. These mismatched links are flagged as structurally suspicious IRC candidates. Rather than deleting them outright, the framework rigorously diagnoses their relevance by assessing prediction reliability. It selectively deletes conditions that are structurally and empirically irrelevant, while strictly protecting those whose deletion would reduce the rule's reliability. Experimental results confirm that the proposed framework achieves substantial rule simplification without sacrificing the reliability of the original tree.

Ensuring model reliability in Explainable AI requires a global assessment of the hypothesis space. We propose a formal framework for the exhaustive analysis of optimal and near-optimal decision trees, called Algebraic Decision Tree Counting (ADTC). Inspired by Algebraic Model Counting (AMC) in knowledge representation, ADTC reformulates diverse analytical tasks, such as optimization, counting, and sampling, into a unified sum-of-products computation over a semiring $R$. While the hypothesis space of decision trees is doubly exponential with respect to the maximum depth $Δ$, our dynamic programming algorithm achieves $O^*(n^{O(Δ)})$ time complexity in the number of features $n$, where $O^*$ suppresses polynomial factors. To handle complex constraints consisting of multiple tree metrics, we introduce model behavior tensors that aggregate semiring values via convolution products over a tensor semiring. This algebraic approach efficiently constructs a model profile that captures the global landscape and trade-offs between criteria such as accuracy, size, and fairness. We demonstrate the utility of our software, emtrees, on real-world datasets, illustrating how ADTC facilitates evidence-based model selection in sensitive domains.

Conditional inference trees (CIT) and conditional inference forests (CIF) reduce split-selection bias by testing features before choosing split thresholds, but repeated permutation tests and threshold searches can make these methods computationally expensive. We study CIT and CIF as top-$k$ feature-ranking methods for downstream prediction using real-data benchmarks, runtime ablations, and synthetic feature-recovery experiments. At a fixed node, if the features and permutation budget do not depend on the node responses, Bonferroni-corrected $+1$ Monte Carlo permutation $p$-values control nodewise rejection under the complete permutation null. CIF ranks 4th among 17 classification methods on 22 datasets and 3rd among 18 regression methods on 8 datasets. With Bonferroni correction held fixed, the CIF runtime ablations indicate that adaptive stopping and the number of thresholds searched have the largest measured effect on runtime: turning off adaptive stopping and using exact threshold search increase fitting time by 4.0--8.4$\times$ and 1.9--10.8$\times$, respectively, while downstream score changes are at most 0.011. Sparse high-$p$ simulations indicate that forest feature sampling can leave informative features out of many split decisions. Overall, the results support CIF as a top-$k$ feature-ranking method in the evaluated downstream prediction benchmarks.

Recent work has shown that well-optimized individual decision trees can match complex black box models in some settings, primarily in noisy domains. For the remaining settings, however, complex ensembled compositions of trees often achieve higher accuracy at the cost of interpretability, leaving practitioners with difficult modeling decisions along an accuracy-interpretability tradeoff. Ideally, we would like to classify as much of the data as possible with one or a small number of trees, achieving interpretability for most samples while maintaining state-of-the-art accuracy. We introduce Multistage Defer Trees: a sequence of sparse decision trees that each make predictions for most samples, while deferring a small proportion to the next tree in the sequence or, ultimately, to a black box. We demonstrate that we can train this model class to match the performance of complex tree-based ensembles while routing most samples through only one or a small number of sparse decision trees. We discuss a range of techniques for training these models while maintaining simplicity. Our method expands the accuracy--interpretability frontier in settings where single-tree methods remain insufficient, demonstrating that even when complex models are necessary, they need not be fully opaque.

This work presents a deterministic, machine-assisted framework for SI-compliant PCB design based on the Earth Mover's Distance (EMD). In contrast to conventional surrogate-based optimization methods that rely on iterative black-box search procedures, the proposed approach follows an interpretable, sequential evaluation strategy. Neural surrogate models are first used to efficiently predict waveform describing features from topology-dependent design parameters. A decision tree then acts as a physically motivated quality gate that identifies SI-compliant waveforms according to predefined SI criteria. Within the resulting valid solution space, the Earth Mover's Distance is employed as a similarity metric to rank candidate designs according to their proximity to an ideal reference signal. This enables not only the deterministic identification of admissible parameter regions but also a transparent prioritization of physically superior solutions without inverse modeling or stochastic search procedures. The methodology is demonstrated using a large-scale set of simulated DDR3 fly-by waveforms. By combining surrogate prediction, interpretable classification, and EMD-based waveform evaluation, the framework provides an explainable and computationally efficient alternative to conventional optimization strategies for supporting PCB development with AI-based methods.

Classification and Regression Trees (CART) constitute one of the most influential paradigms in statistical learning. Although a variety of impurity measures have been proposed for different statistical models, these criteria are typically introduced on a case-by-case basis and analyzed separately. In this paper, we study CART through the lens of Bregman divergences. This perspective places the classical least-squares criterion, Poisson deviance, Kullback-Leibler-type losses, and other impurity measures associated with exponential-family models within a common framework. As a result, key ingredients of the CART methodology -- including node representatives, impurity measures, and split selection rules -- can be expressed and analyzed through general properties of convex functions rather than through separate model-specific constructions. Beyond the algorithmic formulation, we investigate theoretical properties of Bregman-based CART procedures. In particular, we analyze how geometric properties of the generating convex function influence impurity reductions and stability of recursive partitions. We also establish consistency results within the proposed framework, providing a unified theoretical treatment for a broad family of CART type procedures. Our results provide a geometric interpretation of impurity-based tree construction and show that many classical CART impurity criteria admit a common interpretation within a Bregman framework.

In the era of Explainable Artificial Intelligence, there is a renewed focus on single trees for their ease of interpretation. This paper introduces Simultaneous Latent Budget Trees, a probabilistic machine learning framework for classification trees in the presence of a stratification factor such as a temporal, spatial, or demographic variable, acting as a control variable or potential confounder. Standard tree growth procedures are not designed to optimize a conditional split rule. A model-based split rule is proposed in which child nodes are interpreted as latent components of a simultaneous mixture model, such as the Simultaneous Latent Budget Model and its constrained versions, fitted to the parent node. Mixing parameters drive the observations, differently for each group, to the child nodes whereas latent budgets parameters update the response classes profile of each level of the control variable. Parameters are estimated by least squares considering a neural network perspective of the model. An informative tree structure can be interactively visualized with interpretation aids on the node and the paths, including visual pruning and decision tree selection procedure. Suitable measures are proposed to handle an unbalanced response class distribution. The proposed methodology is applied to investigate gender-related differences in disease progression of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis. The SLBT library with the various tree-based algorithms is available in the linked GitHub repository.

We ask: when do Bayesian model averaging (BMA) weights over decision trees carry sufficient epistemic information to justify committed exploitation of the averaging distribution? We answer this question in closed form for Bayesian decision trees (BDTs) with Dirichlet-Multinomial leaf models and a Catalan-exponential tree-size prior (Schetinin&Jakaite, 2025), establishing a complete non-asymptotic theory of rational commitment thresholds.

Deep reinforcement learning (RL) offers a promising route to real-time power grid operation, yet large neural policies are costly to evaluate, hard to deploy on constrained hardware, and opaque to operators. We ask whether a Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) agent for grid topology control can be compressed into compact tree-based surrogates without losing operational performance. A PPO teacher is trained on Grid2Op's standard 14-bus environment with a stability-oriented reward, using stress-focused data collection on critical, high-loading states. The policy is then distilled into a decision tree and a random forest. Across held-out validation episodes, both surrogates exceed the teacher in mean reward and survival length at a fraction of the inference cost. The decision tree shows high exact-action agreement with the PPO argmax and near-complete agreement within its top-ranked actions, while remaining small enough to be inspected directly. Feature-importance analysis reveals a representational shift: the PPO policy relies mainly on line-loading signals, while the distilled tree is driven primarily by bus-topology variables. These results suggest that stress-focused distillation can convert a black-box neural controller into a lightweight, auditable rule-like surrogate suited for real-time deployment, while also surfacing risks tied to deterministic actions and topology-specific generalization.

Standard machine learning pipelines often admit many near-optimal models. These "Rashomon sets" pose a range of challenges and opportunities for uncertainty-aware, robust decision making. They allow users to incorporate domain knowledge and preferences that would otherwise be difficult to specify directly in an objective, and they quantify diversity among valid models for a given training dataset and objective function. However, computation of Rashomon sets, even for simple, interpretable model classes such as sparse decision trees, continues to require immense memory and runtime resources. We present PRAXIS, an algorithm to approximate this Rashomon set with orders of magnitude improvement in runtime and memory usage. We validate that PRAXIS regularly recovers almost all of the full Rashomon set. PRAXIS allows researchers and practitioners to scalably model the Rashomon set for real-world datasets. Code for PRAXIS is available at https://github.com/zakk-h/PRAXIS

Bagging-based ensembles, most notably Adaptive Random Forests, are among the strongest performers for learning from data streams. A common denominator across these methods is their reliance on Hoeffding Trees as base learners, which grow decision trees incrementally by testing whether a candidate split is significantly better than its alternatives using concentration inequalities. Despite their empirical success, existing variants lack valid statistical guarantees. Current analyses rely on fixed-sample concentration bounds, while split decisions are made using data-dependent stopping rules, which invalidates their guarantees and can drive the probabilty of incorrect splits to one. We introduce a principled alternative based on anytime-valid inference. Our method provides: (i) anytime-valid control of false splits under arbitrary data streams, including non-stationary settings; (ii) finite commitment time under a predictive advantage; and (iii) under stationary i.i.d. data, risk is monotone decreasing and strictly improves at every split. Empirically, we evaluate both standalone trees and their use within Adaptive Random Forests on non-stationary streams. Our method improves performance while producing substantially smaller trees.

Despite Japan being one of the world's largest advanced democracies, the development of election forecasting models for its national elections remains limited. This study introduces nonlinear machine-learning forecasting models, based on decision tree and ensemble learning methods, for predicting the outcomes of Japanese lower-house elections. To assess the methodological benefits of our approach, we replicated the theoretical framework and dataset of Lewis-Beck and Tien's (LBT) foundational statistical forecasting model for Japanese elections. Our models demonstrated moderately but consistently improved predictive accuracy compared to LBT's model in both in-sample and out-of-sample evaluations, suggesting that nonlinear algorithms offer an alternative approach to classical linear methods in capturing complex electoral dynamics. This study represents one of the earlier applications of nonlinear machine-learning techniques to single-country election forecasting. It offers a replicable framework that, when combined with the country-specific electoral theories of other nations, may enhance the predictive performance of forecasting models in broader national contexts.