Decision Trees

This study presents a comparative analysis between two primary approaches in Natural Language Processing (NLP): Machine Learning (ML) utilizing the PyCaret AutoML framework, and Deep Learning (DL). The evaluation is conducted on a sentiment analysis task using an Indonesian e-commerce review dataset sourced from Hugging Face. The dataset, consisting of 15,000 samples, is partitioned into training, validation, and testing sets. The ML experiments compare LightGBM, Logistic Regression, and Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms, whereas the DL experiment implements a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) architecture. The experimental results demonstrate that the BiLSTM model outperforms all ML models, achieving an accuracy of 98.87% and an F1-Score of 98.87%. Meanwhile, LightGBM emerges as the best-performing ML model with an accuracy of 98.23% in a highly efficient training time. This research proves that the BiLSTM architecture is highly capable of capturing the sequential context of Indonesian review texts, making it the superior model for this specific classification task.

Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDTs) dominate tabular machine learning, with modern implementations like XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost being based on Newton boosting: a second-order descent step in the space of decision trees. Despite its empirical success, the global convergence of Newton boosting is poorly understood compared to first-order boosting. In this paper, we introduce Restricted Newton Descent, which studies convex optimization with Newton's method on Hilbert spaces with inexact iterates, based on the concepts of cosine angle and weak gradient edge. Within this framework, we recover Newton boosting with GBDTs and classical finite-dimensional theory as special cases. We first prove that vanilla Newton boosting achieves a linear rate of convergence for smooth, strongly convex losses that satisfy a Hessian-dominance condition. To handle general convex losses with Lipschitz Hessians, we extend a recent gradient regularized Newton scheme to the restricted weak learner setting. This scheme minimally modifies the classical algorithm by introducing an adaptive $\ell_2$-regularization term proportional to the square root of the gradient norm at each iteration. We establish a $\mathcal{O}(\frac{1}{k^2})$ rate for this scheme, thereby obtaining a globally convergent second-order GBDT algorithm with a rate matching that of first-order boosting with Nesterov momentum. In numerical experiments, we show that our scheme converges while vanilla Newton boosting may diverge.

Decision trees and diffusion models are ostensibly disparate model classes, one discrete and hierarchical, the other continuous and dynamic. This work unifies the two by establishing a crisp mathematical correspondence between hierarchical decision trees and diffusion processes in appropriate limiting regimes. Our unification reveals a shared optimization principle: \emph{Global Trajectory Score Matching (GTSM)}, for which gradient boosting (in an idealized version) is asymptotically optimal. We underscore the conceptual value of our work through two key practical instantiations: \treeflow, which achieves competitive generation quality on tabular data with higher fidelity and a 2\times computational speedup, and \dsmtree, a novel distillation method that transfers hierarchical decision logic into neural networks, matching teacher performance within 2% on many benchmarks.

We present CRADIPOR, a numerical dispersion prediction tool for automotive crash simulations. Finite Element (FE) crash models are widely used throughout vehicle development, but their predictions are not strictly repeatable because of parallel computation and model complexity. As a result, performance criteria evaluated during post-processing may exhibit significant numerical dispersion, which complicates engineering decision-making. Although dispersion can be estimated by repeating the same simulation, this approach is generally impractical because of its high computational cost. This work therefore investigates a prediction tool that can be applied during routine crash-simulation post-processing without repeating the computation. The proposed approach relies on a Rank Reduction Autoencoder (RRAE) combined with supervised classification in order to identify regions sensitive to numerical dispersion. The comparative analysis suggests that the RRAE-based framework is more effective than the Random Forest baseline on the studied dataset. Among the tested signal representations, wavelet-based and slope-based inputs appear to be the most promising, with slope variations providing the best classification performance. These results support the use of structured latent representations for improving numerical-dispersion detection in automotive crash post-processing.

This paper extends and explains the Multiple Additive Neural Networks (MANN) methodology, an enhancement to the traditional Gradient Boosting framework, utilizing nearly shallow neural networks instead of decision trees as base learners. This innovative approach leverages neural network architectures, notably Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Capsule Neural Networks, to extend its application to both structured data and unstructured data such as images and audio. For structured data the advantages of capsule neural networks as feature extractors are used and combined with MANN as a classifier. MANN's unique architecture promotes continuous learning and integrates advanced heuristics to combat overfitting, ensuring robustness and reducing sensitivity to hyperparameter settings like learning rate and iterations. Our empirical studies reveal that MANN surpasses traditional methods such as Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) in accuracy across well-known datasets. This research demonstrates MANN's superior precision and generalizability, making it a versatile tool for diverse data types and complex learning environments.

Norway's electricity market is heavily dominated by hydropower, but the 2021-2022 energy crisis and stronger integration with Continental Europe have fundamentally altered price formation, reducing the reliability of forecasting models calibrated on historical data. Despite the critical need for updated models, a unified benchmark evaluating feature contributions across all structurally diverse Norwegian bidding zones remains lacking. Here we present a comprehensive evaluation of one-step-ahead forecasting of the Nord Pool market across all five Norwegian bidding zones. We constructed a multimodal hourly dataset spanning 2019-2025 and evaluated eight forecasting model families, including Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), autoregressive models with exogenous variables, and advanced deep learning architectures, using a strictly causal test set. We implemented robust rolling-origin backtesting, leave-one-group-out feature ablation, and conditional regime analysis to dissect model performance and feature utility. Our results show that LightGBM achieves the best performance in every zone, with mean absolute error ranging from 1.60 to 5.58 euros per megawatt-hour, while a ridge-regularized autoregressive model with exogenous variables remains a highly competitive linear benchmark in northern zones. Feature ablation reveals that models relying solely on lagged prices and calendar variables achieve high accuracy and often match or closely approach the performance of the full multimodal model. However, conditional regime analysis demonstrates that external features like reservoir levels and gas prices remain crucial to stratify forecast errors, which consistently increase under stressed market regimes. This highlights the practical value of model interpretability and regime awareness for decision makers facing structural changes in market dynamics.

Tree ensembles provide strong classification performance but usually behave as black-box models. Post-hoc interpretability techniques such as RuleCOSI+ extract a small ruleset that approximates the ensemble, but this simplification can leave the probabilities attached to the extracted rules unreliable. In particular, RuleCOSI+ assigns empirical class probabilities to the extracted rules and repeatedly uses those rule statistics during its greedy combination and simplification procedure. We present RCProb, a probabilistic extension that uses smoothed atomic class-conditional evidence for the expensive search stages and a support-adaptive mixture with an ensemble-informed m-estimate for the final rule probabilities. The method is evaluated on 18 binary and 5 multiclass datasets using random forest (RF) and gradient boosting machine (GBM) ensembles. Relative to RuleCOSI+, the median paired log-loss reduction is 71.9% for RF and 62.5% for GBM, with both differences remaining significant after Holm correction. The number of rules decreases by 38.7% for RF and 38.5% for GBM, while the primary tests do not detect a macro-F1 difference. Confidence-ECE also decreases for both ensembles, with statistical support for RF after correction. A separate controlled experiment with dedicated calibration data shows that native RCProb probabilities are competitive with RuleCOSI+ followed by temperature scaling, although additional post-hoc calibration can still improve RCProb. The results show that probability estimation is an important part of rule extraction and not only a post-processing step.

Falls among older adults are a significant public health concern, leading to severe injuries, loss of independence, and increased healthcare costs. This study evaluates the effectiveness of various models, including a Geometric approach, XGBoost, SVM, and several deep learning architectures, in classifying walker usage, standing vs. sitting, and posture for smart walkers used. Geometric and XGBoost were the top performers. XGBoost achieved near-perfect training accuracy in binary classification tasks, with 99.84% for walker choice and 99.69% for standing vs. sitting. For posture classification, Geometric approach attained 89.9% accuracy for 8 postures, and XGBoost obtained 99.24% during training for 17 postures. Deep learning models such as the 4-layer CNN and Encoder-Decoder CNN also demonstrated strong performance in binary classification, with accuracies above 98%. This study underscores the potential of machine learning to enhance human-robot interaction in smart walkers, particularly for fall prevention.

Multi-intent natural language understanding requires retrieval systems that simultaneously achieve high accuracy and computational efficiency, yet existing approaches apply either uniform single-step retrieval that compromises recall or fixed-depth hierarchical decomposition that introduces excessive latency regardless of query complexity. This paper proposes Adaptive Tree-of-Retrieval (Adaptive ToR), a complexity-aware retrieval architecture that dynamically configures retrieval topology based on query characteristics. The system integrates four components: (1) a Query Tree Classifier computing a Query Complexity Index from weighted linguistic signals to route queries to either a rapid single-step path or an adaptive-depth hierarchical path; (2) a Tree-Based Retrieval module that recursively decomposes complex queries into focused sub-queries calibrated to predicted complexity; (3) an Adaptive Pruning Module employing two-stage filtering combining quantitative similarity gating with semantic relevance evaluation to suppress exponential node growth; and (4) a Retrieval Reranking Layer featuring a deduplicator-first pipeline and global LLM rescoring for production efficiency. Evaluation on the NLU++ benchmark (2,693 multi-intent queries across Banking and Hotel domains) yields 29.07% Subset Accuracy and 71.79% Micro-F1, a 9.7% relative improvement over fixed-depth baselines, while reducing latency by 37.6%, LLM invocations by 43.0%, and token consumption by 9.8%. Depth-wise analysis reveals that 26.92% of queries resolve within three seconds (2.45s mean latency) via single-step routing (d=0: 37.9% Subset Accuracy, 74.8% Micro-F1), while token consumption scales by 4.9x across depths, validating complexity-aware resource allocation and establishing Pareto-optimal balance across accuracy, latency, and computational efficiency.

We propose PathBoost, a gradient tree boosting method for graph-level classification and regression that learns discriminative path-based features directly from the input graph structure. Building on a previous work, which was tailored to a specific chemistry application, PathBoost introduces three key extensions: (i) adaptation to binary classification through gradient boosting with a logistic loss, (ii) incorporation of multiple node and edge attributes into the path feature space via a prefix-based decomposition, and (iii) automatic anchor node selection based on categorical attribute diversity, eliminating the need for the user to specify the starting point of the considered path features. We compared PathBoost to graph neural networks and graph kernel approaches on several benchmark datasets, obtaining better results in half of them, and comparable results in the rest. PathBoost shows better performances on graphs with larger average node counts. Overall, the results demonstrate that path-based boosting methods can be competitive with more complex black-box approaches.

Grading knee osteoarthritis (KOA) on plain radiographs is poorly reproducible across readers. A single-grade disagreement on the Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) scale can alter surgical management or redirect a patient from conservative therapy to intra-articular injection. Meanwhile, deep learning models that outperform human readers often offer no explanation for their decisions. We present Knee-xRAI, a pipeline that decomposes the grading process by mimicking clinical radiological workflows. It independently measures joint space narrowing (JSN), osteophytes, and subchondral sclerosis, then combines these findings into an explainable KL grade. Specifically, a U-Net++ architecture quantifies JSN via contour segmentation, an SE-ResNet-50 multi-task network grades osteophytes per anatomical site on the OARSI scale, and a hybrid texture-CNN detects binary sclerosis. This pipeline yields a 50-dimensional feature vector evaluated via an XGBoost-SHAP classifier (Path A, audit) and a ConvNeXt hybrid predictor (Path B, deployed). On 8,260 OAI-derived radiographs, the JSN module achieved a Dice score of 0.8909 and an mJSW ICC of 0.8674. Path A reached a QWK of 0.6294 and an AUC of 0.8046, confirming the structured feature vector carries substantial diagnostic signal. Path B achieved a QWK of 0.8436 and an AUC of 0.9017. SHAP analysis identifies JSN as the dominant feature, with osteophytes adding a consistent increment and sclerosis contributing marginally. Removing JSN evidence collapses KL3-KL4 recall while early grades remain intact, aligning with the KL diagnostic criteria. Knee-xRAI grounds every prediction in an auditable chain of measured radiographic findings, providing clinical transparency at the point of care.

Objective: To propose and retrospectively validate an integrated framework addressing three barriers to clinical translation of readmission prediction: lack of explainability, absence of deployment reliability infrastructure, and inadequate demographic fairness evaluation. Materials and Methods: We constructed a cohort of 415231 adult admissions from the MIMIC-IV database (30-day readmission prevalence 18.0%), split 70/15/15. Logistic regression, XGBoost, and LightGBM models were trained on 26 features. SHAP provided per-patient explanations. Fairness was evaluated across 16 subgroups using AUC-ROC, false negative rate (FNR), and positive predictive value (PPV). Calibration was assessed using Brier scores and calibration curves. Results: XGBoost achieved AUC-ROC 0.696 (95% CI 0.691-0.701), outperforming or matching the LACE baseline (AUC 0.60-0.68). LightGBM achieved best calibration (Brier 0.146). Prior admissions were the dominant predictor. All subgroups met equity thresholds (delta AUC <= 0.05, delta FNR <= 0.10). Conclusion: This framework delivers competitive performance, clinically actionable explanations, and strong demographic equity. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/Tomisin92/readmission-prediction.

The field of machine learning is subject to an increasing interest in models that are not only accurate but also interpretable and robust, thus allowing their end users to understand and trust AI systems. This paper presents a novel method for learning a set of optimal quantile regression trees. The advantages of this method are that (1) it provides predictions about the complete conditional distribution of a target variable without prior assumptions on this distribution; (2) it provides predictions that are interpretable; (3) it learns a set of optimal quantile regression trees without compromising algorithmic efficiency compared to learning a single tree.

The discretization of continuous numerical attributes remains a persistent computational bottleneck in the induction of decision trees, particularly as dataset dimensions scale. Building upon the recently proposed MSD-Splitting technique -- which bins continuous data using the empirical mean and standard deviation to dramatically improve the efficiency and accuracy of the C4.5 algorithm -- we introduce Adaptive MSD-Splitting (AMSD). While standard MSD-Splitting is highly effective for approximately symmetric distributions, its rigid adherence to fixed one-standard-deviation cutoffs can lead to catastrophic information loss in highly skewed data, a common artifact in real-world biomedical and financial datasets. AMSD addresses this by dynamically adjusting the standard deviation multiplier based on feature skewness, narrowing intervals in dense regions to preserve discriminative resolution. Furthermore, we integrate AMSD into ensemble methods, specifically presenting the Random Forest-AMSD (RF-AMSD) framework. Empirical evaluations on the Census Income, Heart Disease, Breast Cancer, and Forest Covertype datasets demonstrate that AMSD yields a 2-4% accuracy improvement over standard MSD-Splitting, while maintaining near-identical O(N) time complexity reductions compared to the O(N log N) exhaustive search. Our Random Forest extension achieves state-of-the-art accuracy at a fraction of standard computational costs, confirming the viability of adaptive statistical binning in large-scale ensemble learning architectures.

The evaluation of machine learning models typically relies mainly on performance metrics based on loss functions, which risk to overlook changes in performance in relevant subgroups. Auditing tools such as SliceFinder and SliceLine were proposed to detect such groups, but usually have conceptual disadvantages, such as the inability to directly address continuous covariates. In this paper, we introduce FairTree, a novel algorithm adapted from psychometric invariance testing. Unlike SliceFinder and related algorithms, FairTree directly handles continuous, categorical, and ordinal features without discretization. It further decomposes performance disparities into systematic bias and variance, allowing a categorization of changes in algorithm performance. We propose and evaluate two variations of the algorithm: a permutation-based approach, which is conceptually closer to SliceFinder, and a fluctuation test. Through simulation studies that include a direct comparison with SliceLine, we demonstrate that both approaches have a satisfactory rate of false-positive results, but that the fluctuation approach has relatively higher power. We further illustrate the method on the UCI Adult Census dataset. The proposed algorithms provide a flexible framework for the statistical evaluation of the performance and aspects of fairness of machine learning models in a wide range of applications even in relatively small data.

Today, machine learning is widely applied in sensitive, security-related, and financially lucrative applications. Model extraction attacks undermine current business models where a model owner sells model access, e.g., via MLaaS APIs. Additionally, stolen models can enable powerful white-box attacks, facilitating privacy attacks on sensitive training data, and model evasion. In this paper, we focus on Decision Trees (DT), which are widely deployed in practice. Existing black-box extraction attacks for DTs are either query-intensive, make strong assumptions about the DT structure, or rely on rich API information. To limit attacks to the black-box setting, CPU vendors introduced Trusted Execution Environments (TEE) that use hardware-mechanisms to isolate workloads from external parties, e.g., MLaaS providers. We introduce TrEEStealer, a high-fidelity extraction attack for stealing TEE-protected DTs. TrEEStealer exploits TEE-specific side-channels to steal DTs efficiently and without strong assumptions about the API output or DT structure. The extraction efficacy stems from a novel algorithm that maximizes the information derived from each query by coupling Control-Flow Information (CFI) with passive information tracking. We use two primitives to acquire CFI: for AMD SEV, we follow previous work using the SEV-Step framework and performance counters. For Intel SGX, we reproduce prior findings on current Xeon 6 CPUs and construct a new primitive to efficiently extract the branch history of inference runs through the Branch-History-Register. We found corresponding vulnerabilities in three popular libraries: OpenCV, mlpack, and emlearn. We show that TrEEStealer achieves superior efficiency and extraction fidelity compared to prior attacks. Our work establishes a new state-of-the-art for DT extraction and confirms that TEEs fail to protect against control-flow leakage.

Continual learning aims to update models under distribution shift without forgetting, yet many high-stakes deployments, such as healthcare, also require interpretability. In practice, models that adapt well (e.g., deep networks) are often opaque, while models that are interpretable (e.g., decision trees) are brittle under shift, making it difficult to achieve both properties simultaneously. In response, we propose Tree of Concepts, an interpretable continual learning framework that uses a shallow decision tree to define a fixed, rule-based concept interface and trains a concept bottleneck model to predict these concepts from raw features. Continual updates act on the concept extractor and label head while keeping concept semantics stable over time, yielding explanations that do not drift across sequential updates. On multiple tabular healthcare benchmarks under continual learning protocols, our method achieves a stronger stability-plasticity trade-off than existing baselines, including replay-enhanced variants. Our results suggest that structured concept interfaces can support continual adaptation while preserving a consistent audit interface in non-stationary, high-stakes domains.

Covering one third of Earth's land surface, forests are vital to global biodiversity, climate regulation, and human well-being. In Europe, forests and woodlands reach approximately 40% of land area, and the forestry sector is central to achieving the EU's climate neutrality and biodiversity goals; these emphasize sustainable forest management, increased use of long-lived wood products, and resilient forest ecosystems. To meet these goals and properly address their inherent challenges, current practices require further innovation. This chapter introduces DigiForest, a novel, large-scale precision forestry approach leveraging digital technologies and autonomous robotics. DigiForest is structured around four main components: (1) autonomous, heterogeneous mobile robots (aerial, legged, and marsupial) for tree-level data collection; (2) automated extraction of tree traits to build forest inventories; (3) a Decision Support System (DSS) for forecasting forest growth and supporting decision-making; and (4) low-impact selective logging using purpose-built autonomous harvesters. These technologies have been extensively validated in real-world conditions in several locations, including forests in Finland, the UK, and Switzerland.

Interpretable machine learning is essential in high-stakes domains where decision-making requires accountability, transparency, and trust. While rule-based models offer global and exact interpretability, learning rule sets that simultaneously achieve high predictive performance and low, human-understandable complexity remains challenging. To address this, we introduce TT-Sparse, a flexible neural building block that leverages differentiable truth tables as nodes to learn sparse, effective connections. A key contribution of our approach is a new soft TopK operator with straight-through estimation for learning discrete, cardinality-constrained feature selection in an end-to-end differentiable manner. Crucially, the forward pass remains sparse, enabling efficient computation and exact symbolic rule extraction. As a result, each node (and the entire model) can be transformed exactly into compact, globally interpretable DNF/CNF Boolean formulas via Quine-McCluskey minimization. Extensive empirical results across 28 datasets spanning binary, multiclass, and regression tasks show that the learned sparse rules exhibit superior predictive performance with lower complexity compared to existing state-of-the-art methods.

This work considers a number of optimization problems and reductive relations between them. The two main problems we are interested in are the Optimal Decision Tree and Set Cover. We study these two fundamental tasks under precedence constraints, that is, if a test (or set) $X$ is a predecessor of $Y$, then in any feasible decision tree $X$ needs to be an ancestor of $Y$ (or respectively, if $Y$ is added to set cover, then so must be $X$). For the Optimal Decision Tree we consider two optimization criteria: worst case identification time (height of the tree) or the average identification time. Similarly, for the Set Cover we study two cost measures: the size of the cover or the average cover time. Our approach is to develop a number of algorithmic reductions, where an approximation algorithm for one problem provides an approximation for another via a black-box usage of a procedure for the former. En route we introduce other optimization problems either to complete the `reduction landscape' or because they hold the essence of combinatorial structure of our problems. The latter is brought by a problem of finding a Maximum Density Precedence-Closed Subfamily, where the density is defined as the ratio of the number of items the family covers to its size. We provide $\mathcal{O}^*(\sqrt{m})$-approximation polynomial-time algorithms for all aforementioned problems. The picture is complemented by a number of hardness reductions that provide $\mathcal{O}(m^{1/12-ε})$-inapproximability results for the decision tree and covering problems. Besides giving a complete set of results for general precedence constraints, we also provide polylogarithmic approximation guarantees for two most typically studied and applicable graph types, outforests and inforests. By providing corresponding hardness results, we show most of these results to be tight.

Accurate production forecasts are essential for the integration of renewable energy sources into the power grid. This paper illustrates how to obtain probabilistic forecasts of wind power generation using gradient boosting trees and an ensemble of weather forecasts. To this end, we perform a comparative analysis across three state-of-the-art probabilistic prediction methods-conformalized quantile regression, natural gradient boosting and conditional diffusion models-all of which can be combined with tree-based machine learning. The methods are validated using four years of data for all Belgian offshore wind farms. We benchmark the models against the power curve and a calibrated wake model as well as a probabilistic method using stochastic variational Gaussian process regression. The tree-based models significantly reduce the mean absolute error in comparison to the deterministic baselines. Additionally, all three methods outperform the Gaussian process baseline in probabilistic skill, while two out of the three also improve point forecast accuracy. The conditional diffusion model attains the best performance, with improvements of 5% in mean absolute error and 12% in continuous rank probability score compared to the probabilistic baseline. Last, the results indicate an average improvement in point forecast accuracy of 17% by using an ensemble of weather forecasts instead of a single provider.

Tabular foundation models, such as TabPFNv2 and TabICL, have recently dethroned gradient-boosted trees at the top of predictive benchmarks, demonstrating the value of in-context learning for tabular data. We introduce TabICLv2, a new state-of-the-art foundation model for regression and classification built on three pillars: (1) a novel synthetic data generation engine designed for high pretraining diversity; (2) various architectural innovations, including a new scalable softmax in attention improving generalization to larger datasets without prohibitive long-sequence pretraining; and (3) optimized pretraining protocols, notably replacing AdamW with the Muon optimizer. On the TabArena and TALENT benchmarks, TabICLv2 without any tuning surpasses the performance of the current state of the art, RealTabPFN-2.5 (hyperparameter-tuned, ensembled, and fine-tuned on real data). With only moderate pretraining compute, TabICLv2 generalizes effectively to million-scale datasets under 50 GB GPU memory while being markedly faster than RealTabPFN-2.5. We provide extensive ablation studies to quantify these contributions and foster open research by releasing code for inference, pretraining, and synthetic data generation at https://github.com/soda-inria/tabicl.

Tree-boosting is a widely used machine learning technique for tabular data. However, its out-of-sample accuracy is critically dependent on multiple hyperparameters. In this article, we empirically compare several popular methods for hyperparameter optimization for tree-boosting including random grid search, the tree-structured Parzen estimator (TPE), Gaussian-process-based Bayesian optimization (GP-BO), Hyperband, the sequential model-based algorithm configuration (SMAC) method, and deterministic full grid search using $59$ regression and binary classification data sets. We find that the SMAC method clearly outperforms all the other considered methods on average, and it gives stable performance across a diverse collection of tabular data sets under a fixed tuning budget, which is relevant for users who cannot afford extensive manual trial-and-error tuning. We further observe that (i) a relatively large number of trials larger than $100$ is typically required for accurate tuning, (ii) using default values for hyperparameters or a full search over a small grid often yields very inaccurate models, (iii) all considered hyperparameters can have a material effect on the accuracy of tree-boosting, i.e., there is no small set of hyperparameters that is more important than others, and (iv) choosing the number of boosting iterations using early stopping yields more accurate results compared to including it in the search space for regression tasks.

Complex tables with multi-level headers, merged cells and heterogeneous layouts pose persistent challenges for LLMs in both understanding and reasoning. Existing approaches typically rely on table linearization or normalized grid modeling. However, these representations struggle to explicitly capture hierarchical structures and cross-dimensional dependencies, which can lead to misalignment between structural semantics and textual representations for non-standard tables. To address this issue, we propose an Orthogonal Hierarchical Decomposition (OHD) framework that constructs structure-preserving input representations of complex tables for LLMs. OHD introduces an Orthogonal Tree Induction (OTI) method based on spatial--semantic co-constraints, which decomposes irregular tables into a column tree and a row tree to capture vertical and horizontal hierarchical dependencies, respectively. Building on this representation, we design a dual-pathway association protocol to symmetrically reconstruct semantic lineage of each cell, and incorporate an LLM as a semantic arbitrator to align multi-level semantic information. We evaluate OHD framework on two complex table question answering benchmarks, AITQA and HiTab. Experimental results show that OHD consistently outperforms existing representation paradigms across multiple evaluation metrics.

Assessing the importance of individual features in Machine Learning is critical to understand the model's decision-making process. While numerous methods exist, the lack of a definitive ground truth for comparison highlights the need for alternative, well-founded measures. This paper introduces a novel post-hoc local feature importance method called Counterfactual Importance Distribution (CID). We generate two sets of positive and negative counterfactuals, model their distributions using Kernel Density Estimation, and rank features based on a distributional dissimilarity measure. This measure, grounded in a rigorous mathematical framework, satisfies key properties required to function as a valid metric. We showcase the effectiveness of our method by comparing with well-established local feature importance explainers. Our method not only offers complementary perspectives to existing approaches, but also improves performance on faithfulness metrics (both for comprehensiveness and sufficiency), resulting in more faithful explanations of the system. These results highlight its potential as a valuable tool for model analysis. Link to repository: https://github.com/EddieConti/CID

Many high-stakes screening tasks require predicting rare outcomes from unstructured text, where errors are costly and decisions must be auditable. We introduce Random Rule Forest (RRF), an interpretable ensemble that uses a large language model (LLM) not as an end-to-end predictor but as a generator of simple YES/NO questions. Each question acts as a weak learner, and their responses are combined by a plain unit-weight vote into an auditable ``green-flags'' scorecard: enough independent positive signals indicate a higher chance of success. We argue this deliberate simplicity is a robust default when positives are scarce and learned weights are hard to estimate. We evaluate RRF in two low-base-rate domains. On early-stage startup screening from founder profiles, RRF produces a transparent scorecard whose precision is several times the base rate (with light expert input raising it further) and, unlike direct prompting, its operating point can be controlled directly. On an established Phase~I clinical-trial benchmark, RRF outperforms published baselines on the threshold-independent metrics PR-AUC and ROC-AUC. Together these show that LLMs can serve as auditable feature generators for high-stakes text-based decisions, combining transparency with competitive predictive performance.

With the rapid development of machine learning and deep learning techniques, actuaries and the broader insurance industry face a persistent trade-off between predictive accuracy and interpretability. This paper provides a comprehensive applied assessment of Explainable Boosting Machines (EBM) in a car insurance framework, focusing on claim frequency and severity modeling. EBM combines the additive structure of generalized additive models (GAM) with a cyclic gradient boosting algorithm, resulting in a glass-box model whose predictions are interpretable by design. Using real-world data, we empirically illustrate its practical relevance and compare EBM with modern benchmark models used in non-life insurance pricing. The evaluation considers (i) out-of-sample predictive accuracy, including Murphy diagrams and Bregman dominance tests, and (ii) calibration assessment using T-reliability diagrams and Murphy's score decomposition. Finally, we highlight the link between EBM predictions and Shapley values, showing how predictions can be transparently decomposed into exact main and pairwise interaction effects, providing actionable insights beyond predictive performance.

Model trees provide an appealing way to perform interpretable machine learning for both classification and regression problems. In contrast to ``classic'' decision trees with constant values in their leaves, model trees can use linear combinations of predictor variables in their leaf nodes to form predictions, which can help achieve higher accuracy and smaller trees. Typical algorithms for learning model trees from training data work in a greedy fashion, growing the tree in a top-down manner by recursively splitting the data into smaller and smaller subsets. Crucially, the selected splits are only locally optimal, potentially rendering the tree overly complex and less accurate than a tree whose structure is globally optimal for the training data. In this paper, we empirically investigate the effect of constructing globally optimal model trees for classification and regression with linear support vector machines at the leaf nodes. To this end, we present mixed-integer linear programming formulations to learn optimal trees, compute such trees for a large collection of benchmark data sets, and compare their performance against greedily grown model trees in terms of interpretability and accuracy. We also compare to classic optimal and greedily grown decision trees, random forests, and support vector machines. Our results show that optimal model trees can achieve competitive accuracy with very small trees. We also investigate the effect on the accuracy of replacing axis-parallel splits with multivariate ones, foregoing interpretability while potentially obtaining greater accuracy.

Semi-supervised anomaly detection is based on the principle that any record that looks different from normal training data is a potential anomaly. However, in some cases we are specifically interested in anomalies that correspond to high attribute values (or low, but not both). For distance-based methods, we propose an asymmetrical distance measure that takes this monotonicity into account by incorporating the ramp function. For the Isolation Forest algorithm, we propose a modified path length algorithm. Through experiments on synthetic and real-life datasets, we show that these proposals increase anomaly detection performance on datasets with monotonic attributes.

We study hyperparameter optimization (HPO) from a numerical-optimization perspective and propose a multi-objective damped Newton--Gauss--Newton search method. Rather than perturbing each hyperparameter separately or treating model evaluations as independent trials, the method uses performance changes between successive full hyperparameter vectors to construct an iterative secant approximation of the local sensitivity matrix. Each iteration therefore requires only one new full-vector model evaluation while jointly updating all optimized hyperparameters. A Tikhonov-regularized Gauss--Newton system stabilizes the update when the number of hyperparameters exceeds the number of performance objectives. The search is initialized from readily available empirical/default settings of the underlying learner, without requiring a separate initialization search. We evaluate four-dimensional XGBoost HPO on three public classification datasets against exhaustive grid search, random search, and tree-structured Parzen estimator (TPE) optimization. On Breast Cancer Wisconsin, the proposed method matches the best validation accuracy of a 320-configuration grid search with slightly better log loss and ROC--AUC. Across three datasets and three seeds, predictive performance remains competitive with random search and TPE while using substantially fewer search iterations. A supplementary proprietary eight-dimensional threshold-optimization case study further demonstrates joint multi-parameter optimization under competing performance targets and reveals non-monotonic, oscillatory trajectories that motivate damping and best-iterate selection. Overall, the results establish iterative secant sensitivity as an evaluation-efficient local alternative to exhaustive HPO.

Fetal health classification is a critical task in obstetrics, enabling early identification and management of potential health problems. However, it remains challenging due to data complexity and limited labeled samples. This research paper presents a novel machine-learning approach for fetal health classification, leveraging a LightGBM classifier trained on a comprehensive dataset. The proposed model achieves an impressive accuracy of 98.31% on a test set. Our findings demonstrate the potential of machine learning in enhancing fetal health classification, offering a more objective and accurate assessment. Notably, our approach combines various features, such as fetal heart rate, uterine contractions, and maternal blood pressure, to provide a comprehensive evaluation. This methodology holds promise for improving early detection and treatment of fetal health issues, ensuring better outcomes for both mothers and babies. Beyond the high accuracy achieved, the novelty of our approach lies in its comprehensive feature selection and assessment methodology. By incorporating multiple data points, our model offers a more holistic and reliable evaluation compared to traditional methods. This research has significant implications in the field of obstetrics, paving the way for advancements in early detection and intervention of fetal health concerns. Future work involves validating the model on a larger dataset and developing a clinical application. Ultimately, we anticipate that our research will revolutionize the assessment and management of fetal health, contributing to improved healthcare outcomes for expectant mothers and their babies.

Classification outperforms regression across matched machine learning models in portfolio construction. A stacking ensemble of gradient boosted tree, random forest, and neural network yields a value-weighted annualized Sharpe ratio of 1.83 for classification and 1.11 for regression. This outperformance persists in multiclass settings, across subsamples, and after transaction costs. Spanning tests show that classification retains economically large alphas after we control for regression, whereas regression alphas shrink substantially once we control for classification. These results indicate that classification extracts more return information than matched regression. Our diagnostics trace classification's advantage to sharper and more precise separation of return deciles.

Building trustworthy machine learning algorithms for biological applications requires adapting to data heterogeneity from different sources, batches, distributions, or studies. We propose the 'Cross-Cluster Weighted Forest' (CCWF), an ensembling approach that explicitly leverages heterogeneity in the feature distribution to produce more accurate and more generalizable predictors than the standard Random Forest in cases when data can be naturally clustered. CCWF generalizes the RF architecture to an outer unsupervised layer, supervised subtasks, and ensembling. Specifically it involves unsupervised clustering of the training data, fitting a Random Forest on each cluster, and combining the forests via stacked regression weights that reward cross-cluster generalizability. We provide a theoretical analysis of an analytically tractable forest model showing that cluster-based ensembling is asymptotically more accurate than training a single forest on the full data, with the gain driven by bias reduction. In simulations, we find that CCWF is robust across data-generating regimes and outcome models; furthermore, we explore the influence of data partitioning and ensemble weighting strategies on the benefits of our method. Finally, we apply our approach to cancer molecular profiling and gene expression datasets that are naturally divisible into clusters; in both simulations and real data examples, we illustrate that our approach outperforms classic Random Forest by margins of 30-40%, aligning with our theoretical results. Overall, we show that CCWF provides a statistically grounded prediction algorithm for data spanning multiple domains or sub-populations, a structure common in biological applications.