Distribution Shift Robustness

Clinical decision-support systems are expert systems whose recommendations clinicians act on directly, yet they are usually cleared on one aggregate accuracy number from a held-out test set. That number says nothing about input reliability under encoding shifts, subgroup gaps, threshold sensitivity, or operational feasibility. We present RISED, a pre-deployment evaluation framework operationalising five dimensions (Reliability, Inclusivity, Sensitivity, Equity, Deployability) through BCa bootstrap 95% confidence intervals, literature-grounded thresholds, and Holm-Bonferroni-corrected PASS / FAIL / INCONCLUSIVE verdicts; Equity is a proxy-dependence diagnostic rather than a gating test. Applied to seven cohorts spanning 35 years (n from 303 to 99,492), RISED surfaces failures invisible to AUROC: on Diabetes 130, Reliability passes by three orders of magnitude (PSS = 0.0004) while Inclusivity (AUC parity gap = 0.262) and Sensitivity (max threshold-flip rate 49.1%) fail decisively; both NHIS cohorts reproduce this. NHANES 2021-2023, with a complete feature profile, achieves INCONCLUSIVE verdicts; BRFSS 2024 produces the suite's most severe Sensitivity failure (max threshold-flip rate 64.2%) after instrument rotation removed hypertension and cholesterol. The pattern recurs on credit- and income-prediction cohorts, confirming domain-agnosticity; a multi-model check shows the failures are data-driven, not model-specific. RISED ships as an open-source Python package complementing TRIPOD+AI, FUTURE-AI, and Fairlearn with the structured numerical evidence those standards require but do not prescribe.

Accurately and consistently indexing biomedical literature by publication type and study design is essential for supporting evidence synthesis and knowledge discovery. Prior work on automated publication type and study design indexing has primarily focused on expanding label coverage, enriching feature representations, and improving in-domain accuracy, with evaluation typically conducted on data drawn from the same distribution as training. Although pretrained biomedical language models achieve strong performance under these settings, models optimized for in-domain accuracy may rely on superficial lexical or dataset-specific cues, resulting in reduced robustness under distributional shift. In this study, we introduce an evaluation framework based on controlled semantic perturbations to assess the robustness of a publication type classifier and investigate robustness-oriented training strategies that combine entity masking and domain-adversarial training to mitigate reliance on spurious topical correlations. Our results show that the commonly observed trade-off between robustness and in-domain accuracy can be mitigated when robustness objectives are designed to selectively suppress non-task-defining features while preserving salient methodological signals. We find that these improvements arise from two complementary mechanisms: (1) increased reliance on explicit methodological cues when such cues are present in the input, and (2) reduced reliance on spurious domain-specific topical features. These findings highlight the importance of feature-level robustness analysis for publication type and study design classification and suggest that refining masking and adversarial objectives to more selectively suppress topical information may further improve robustness. Data, code, and models are available at: https://github.com/ScienceNLP-Lab/MultiTagger-v2/tree/main/ICHI

Despite the burgeoning body of work on distribution shifts, provenance shift-where the relationship between data source and label changes at deployment-remains poorly understood and under-addressed. In this paper, we establish a formal connection between provenance shift, counterfactual invariance, and invariant learning to derive a learning objective for robustness. We then introduce \textsc{DeconDTN-Toolkit}, a specialized evaluation and remediation suite designed to simulate provenance shifts of varying degrees while maintaining the training protocol and the infrastructure of existing benchmarks. We reveal the vulnerability of Empirical Risk Minimization under provenance shift, introduce a robust out-of-distribution performance indicator, and conduct a comprehensive evaluation on existing algorithms. Our work provides both the theoretical grounding and the practical tools necessary to characterize the problem of confounding by provenance, and implementations of methods to mitigate it.

Deep learning models in medical imaging often fail when deployed in new clinical environments due to distribution shifts in demographics, scanner hardware, or acquisition protocols. A central challenge is underspecification, where models with similar validation performance exhibit divergent real-world failure modes. Although stress testing has emerged as a tool to assess this, current methods typically rely on simple, uninformed perturbations (e.g., brightness or contrast changes), which fail to capture clinically realistic variation and can overestimate robustness. In this work, we introduce a counterfactual stress testing framework based on causal generative models that create realistic "what if" images by intervening on attributes such as scanner type and patient sex while preserving anatomical identity, enabling controlled and semantically meaningful evaluation under targeted distribution shifts. Across two imaging modalities (chest X-ray and mammography), three model architectures, and multiple shift scenarios, we show that counterfactual stress tests provide a substantially more accurate proxy for real out-of-distribution performance than classical perturbations, capturing the direction and relative magnitude of performance changes as well as model ranking. These results suggest that causal generative models can serve as practical simulators for robustness assessment, offering a more reliable basis for evaluating medical AI systems prior to deployment.

Machine learning has become increasingly prevalent in football performance analysis, yet most studies prioritize predictive accuracy while implicitly assuming that learned performance determinants and their interpretations are transferable across competition levels. Whether interpretability remains reliable under domain shift-from elite to university football remains largely unexplored. This study investigates whether performance determinants learned from elite competitions are structurally transferable to university-level football and whether their interpretations remain robust under domain shift. Models were trained on large-scale event data from the top five European leagues and applied to university football data from National Tsing Hua University (NTHU) using an identical feature space. Random Forest and Multilayer Perceptron models were interpreted using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and Counterfactual Impact Score (CIS). Across five experiments, elite football exhibited a stable and consistent hierarchy of performance determinants across leagues, models, and explanation methods. In contrast, NTHU university football showed substantial reordering of key indicators, reduced explanation stability, weaker structural agreement with elite domains, and increased sensitivity to explanation method. These findings suggest that interpretability robustness is domain-dependent. Rather than reflecting methodological limitations alone, instability in explanations under domain shift may serve as a diagnostic signal of structural ambiguity in the target domain.

Offline-to-online learning aims to improve online decision-making by leveraging offline logged data. A central challenge in this setting is the distribution shift between offline and online environments. While some existing works attempt to leverage shifted offline data, they largely rely on UCB-type algorithms. Thompson sampling (TS) represents another canonical class of bandit algorithms, well known for its strong empirical performance and naturally suited to offline-to-online learning through its Bayesian formulation. However, unlike UCB indices, posterior samples in TS are not guaranteed to be optimistic with respect to the true arm means. This makes indices constructed from purely online and hybrid data difficult to compare and complicates their use. To address this issue, we propose sample-mean anchored TS (Anchor-TS), which introduces a novel median-based anchoring rule that defines the arm index as the median of an online posterior sample, a hybrid posterior sample, and the online sample mean. The median anchoring systematically corrects bias induced by distribution shift by mitigating over-estimation for suboptimal arms and under-estimation for optimal arms, while exploiting offline information to obtain more accurate estimates when the shift is small. We establish theoretical guarantees showing that the proposed algorithm safely leverages offline data to accelerate online learning, and quantifying how the degree of distribution shift and the size of offline data affect the resulting regret reduction. Extensive experiments demonstrate consistent improvements of our algorithm over baselines.

ML models in healthcare are typically evaluated using curated real-world EHR data. A key limitation of such evaluations is that they may fail to assess the robustness of ML models to changes in the data at deployment, which is a common issue because EHR data used for ML model development cannot capture all such changes. Mass casualty incidents (MCIs) caused by disasters are critical instances where this will be an issue, as they induce rare, uncertain, and novel changes to routine system conditions. Because real-world EHR data from MCIs are often limited or unavailable, assessing ML robustness under such conditions before deployment remains challenging. Here, we propose an agent-based modelling approach for generating synthetic EHR data to evaluate the robustness of ML models under MCI scenarios. We use real-world EHR data to develop and calibrate an agent-based model (ABM) of an emergency department (ED) that explicitly models patient arrivals, resource capacity, and clinical workflow. By changing these system conditions to reflect plausible MCI scenarios, the ED model generates synthetic versions of the real-world EHR data that exhibit shifts in system behaviour. Using these synthetic data, we test ML models for predicting length of stay. We observed consistent declines in recall under MCI conditions relative to baseline system conditions, resulting in an increase in the number of patients with prolonged length of stay that were missed by the ML models. These results highlight the impact of changes in system conditions on patient outcomes, EHR data, and ML model performance. Our work establishes ABM-based synthetic EHR data generation as a proactive and systematic approach for evaluating the robustness of ML models under MCI or other system conditions not captured in real-world EHR data, supporting the safer and more effective deployment of ML models in healthcare systems.

Atmospheric visibility is a critical variable for transportation safety and air quality management, however, accurate prediction remains challenging due to the complex interactions between meteorological conditions and air pollutants, as well as the rarity of low-visibility events. This study introduces a machine learning framework to nowcast visibility in six major South Korean cities. To handle the imbalance in the 2018-2020 training data, we applied the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique with Nominal and Continuous (SMOTENC) and Conditional Tabular Generative Adversarial Network (CTGAN). An ensemble approach combining machine learning and deep learning models was then used and evaluated on a 2021 test dataset. The results revealed a marked decline in predictive performance in the test set compared to the cross-validation phase. This degradation was attributed to a distributional shift between training and testing periods, which was quantitatively confirmed by measuring the Wasserstein distance of the most influential feature identified by SHAP analysis. In general, this study presents a methodology that aims to simultaneously address the dual challenges of data imbalance and temporal distributional shifts, and emphasizes the necessity of accounting for evolving external environmental factors when implementing nowcasting models on time-series data.

Federated learning enables hospitals to collaboratively train segmentation models without sharing patient data. However, current evaluation protocols report only average performance across clients, masking failures at individual sites. In clinical deployment, a model that fails consistently at one hospital is a real safety risk that a good mean score can hide entirely. We introduce MedFL-Stress, a controlled stress-testing framework that exposes exactly this failure mode. Using 2D axial slices from BraTS 2020 distributed across four simulated hospital clients, we apply graded MRI appearance shifts (gamma contrast, scale-shift, and noise-plus-blur) reflecting scanner and acquisition variability in real multi-site deployments. Three federated baselines are evaluated: FedAvg, FedProx, and FedBN. Worst-hospital Dice and inter-hospital disparity are treated as primary metrics, not supplementary observations. FedAvg achieves the highest global mean Dice (0.8159) but conceals a 0.0850 gap between its best and worst-performing hospital. FedBN closes that gap by 41% (0.0850 to 0.0503) while sacrificing less than half a Dice point in mean accuracy (0.8159 to 0.8109), and the weakest hospital gains 3.5 Dice points outright (0.7309 to 0.7656). These findings demonstrate that robustness-oriented evaluation protocols are essential for reliable federated medical imaging deployment.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) robustness is difficult to diagnose when target-domain labels are unavailable. We consider a more restrictive source-only variant of unsupervised accuracy estimation: selecting robust checkpoints using only source-domain representations, with no target samples or target labels. We propose \textbf{TopoGeoScore}, a source-only geometric scorer for label-free OOD checkpoint selection. Given a trained checkpoint, we construct class-conditional mutual $k$-nearest-neighbour graphs from source embeddings and extract three interpretable signals: a torsion-inspired reduced Laplacian log-determinant for global class-manifold complexity, Ollivier--Ricci curvature for local neighbourhood regularity, and higher-order topological summaries for fragmented connectivity, loops, and global--local inconsistency. Instead of fixing their weights by hand, TopoGeoScore learns a non-negative linear score through a self-supervised objective that enforces invariance under approximately geometry-preserving embedding views and separation from structure-breaking views. The score remains interpretable and uses no target-domain samples or labels. Results across CIFAR-based corruption and distribution-shift benchmarks, ImageNet-C, MNLI$\to$HANS transfer, and OGBN-Arxiv suggest that source representations contain measurable global--local--topological evidence of robustness, supporting practical checkpoint selection before deployment under distribution shift.

We introduce GC-ART (Global Curve Adaptive Rational Tone-mapping), a lightweight differentiable pre-processing module for robust image classification. GC-ART predicts an endpoint-pinned rational tone curve from per-channel soft histograms using a 643-parameter MLP, then applies the curve pointwise before the classifier. The module is trained end-to-end with cross-entropy and a soft monotonicity penalty. On CIFAR-10 with a CIFAR-style ResNet-18, GC-ART matches clean accuracy with the unenhanced baseline and other learned enhancers, improves over the baseline on multiplicative darkening, and achieves the best learned-method result on contrast corruption (48.45% vs. 46.27% for the baseline and 47.13% for Zero-DCE++). These results suggest that histogram-conditioned rational curves can learn useful global tone corrections, including contrast-expanding behavior, while preserving edge locations by construction through pointwise mapping. GC-ART also uses substantially fewer FLOPs than convolutional learned enhancers at 32 x 32. The current hyperparameters are untuned, leaving room for systematic improvement.

In many scientific domains, including experimentation, researchers rely on measurements of proxy outcomes to achieve faster and more frequent reads, especially when the primary outcome of interest is challenging to measure directly. While proxies offer a more readily accessible observation for inference, the ultimate goal is to draw statistical inferences about the primary outcome parameter and proxy data are typically imperfect in some ways. To correct for these imperfections, current statistical inference methods often depend on strict identifying assumptions (such as surrogacy, covariate/label shift, or missingness assumptions). These assumptions can be difficult to validate and may be violated by various additional sources of distribution shift, potentially leading to biased parameter estimates and miscalibrated uncertainty quantification. We introduce an estimate-level framework, inspired by domain adaptation techniques, to empirically calibrate proxy-based inference. This framework models the proxy-primary metric discrepancy as a random effect at the parameter level, estimating its distribution from aggregated historical observations across past domains (e.g., experiments, time periods, or distinct segments). This method avoids the requirement for retaining individual-level response data. Additionally, this adjustment can be layered on top of existing proxy-correction methods (such as prediction-powered inference or importance weighting) to account for additional biases not addressed by those corrections. To manage uncertainty when the number of historical domains is limited, we provide both a method-of-moments estimator and a domain bootstrap procedure. We further validate this approach using publicly available datasets and real-world experiments.

Despite extensive research into mitigating distribution shifts, many existing algorithms yield inconsistent performance, often failing to outperform baseline Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) across diverse scenarios and necessitating newer algorithms which can handle scenarios where existing algorithms currently underperform. Furthermore, high algorithmic complexity frequently limits interpretability and offers only an indirect means of addressing spurious correlations. We propose eXplaining to Learn (eX2L): an interpretable, explanation-based framework that decorrelates confounding features from a classifier's latent representations during training. eX2L achieves this by penalizing the similarity between Grad-CAM activation maps generated by a primary label classifier and those from a concurrently trained confounder classifier. On the rigorous Spawrious Many-to-Many Hard Challenge synthetic data benchmark, eX2L achieves an average accuracy (AA) of 82.24% +/- 3.87% and a worst-group accuracy (WGA) of 66.31% +/- 8.73%, outperforming the current state-of-the-art (SOTA) by 5.49% and 10.90%, respectively. Beyond its competitive performance, eX2L demonstrates that functional domain invariance can be enforced by explicitly decoupling label and nuisance attributes at the group level.

We study long-horizon deployment of a frozen predictor under dynamic covariate shift. A time-domain Poincare inequality first reduces temporal risk volatility to derivative energy. A Jacobian-velocity theorem then supplies the corresponding pathwise control. Given explicit regularity and domination assumptions, the theorem identifies directional tangent energy along the deployment path as the governing quantity. Under low-rank drift, that quantity reduces to directional Jacobian energy in the drift subspace, motivating drift-aligned tangent regularization (DTR) and a matched monitoring proxy. Rather than smoothing the network isotropically, DTR penalizes sensitivity only along estimated drift directions. We validate the theorem-to-method pipeline in four experiments: a synthetic benchmark for the time-domain inequality, a controlled synthetic comparison against isotropic Jacobian regularization, and two frozen-deployment studies on the UCI Air Quality and Tetouan power-consumption datasets. DTR reduces risk volatility and directional gain in the controlled low-rank regime and beats isotropic smoothing there. It also gives validation-selected deployment gains on both real datasets, with the Air Quality subspace estimated from target-orthogonal sensor motion. Moderate drift-subspace misspecification is tolerable while orthogonal misspecification largely removes the benefit.

TabPFN has recently gained attention as a foundation model for tabular datasets, achieving strong performance by leveraging in-context learning on synthetic data. However, we find that TabPFN is vulnerable to label shift, often overfitting to the majority class in the training dataset. To address this limitation, we propose DistPFN, the first test-time posterior adjustment method designed for tabular foundation models. DistPFN rescales predicted class probabilities by downweighting the influence of the training prior (i.e., the class distribution of the context) and emphasizing the contribution of the model's predicted posterior, without architectural modification or additional training. We further introduce DistPFN-T, which incorporates temperature scaling to adaptively control the adjustment strength based on the discrepancy between prior and posterior. We evaluate our methods on over 250 OpenML datasets, demonstrating substantial improvements for various TabPFN-based models in classification tasks under label shift, while maintaining strong performance in standard settings without label shift. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/seunghan96/DistPFN.

Open-vocabulary object detection often fails under distribution shifts, as it can be misled by spurious correlations between non-causal visual attributes (e.g., brightness, texture) and object categories. Existing test-time adaptation (TTA) methods either depend on costly online optimization or perform global calibration, overlooking the attribute-specific nature of these failures. To address this, we propose FACTOR (counterFACtual training-free Test-time adaptation for Open-vocabulaRy object detection), a lightweight framework grounded in counterfactual reasoning. By perturbing test images along non-causal attributes and comparing region-level predictions between original and counterfactual views, FACTOR quantifies attribute sensitivity, semantic relevance, and prediction variation to selectively suppress attribute-dependent predictions-without parameter updates. Experiments on PASCAL-C, COCO-C, and FoggyCityscapes show that FACTOR consistently outperforms prior TTA methods, demonstrating that explicit counterfactual reasoning effectively improves robustness under distribution shifts.

Static benchmarks measure a model frozen at training time. Real systems face distribution shift: new categories, paraphrased queries, drift: and must recover online via user corrections. No existing benchmark measures recovery speed under correction streams. We introduce OCRR (Online Correction Recovery Rate): a benchmark that streams a corpus through a classification system, applies oracle or stochastic corrections to wrong predictions, and reports two curves: novel-class accuracy and original-distribution accuracy versus correction count. We evaluate the substrate alongside nine baseline algorithms from five families plus seven bounded-storage variants of the substrate for the Pareto sweep, including standard online-learning baselines (river), continual-learning methods (EWC, A-GEM, LwF), retrieval/parametric hybrids (kNN-LM), parameter-efficient fine-tuning of a 1.5 B-parameter encoder (LoRA on DeBERTa-v3-large), and a hash-chained append-only substrate (Substrate). On Banking77 and CLINC150, under oracle and sparse correction policies, the substrate is the only system that simultaneously recovers novel-class accuracy (88.7 +/- 2.9 %) and retains original-distribution accuracy (95.4 +/- 0.8 %) beating the next-best published continual-learning baseline by 32.6 percentage points at equal memory budget, and beating LoRA-on-DeBERTa-v3-large by 84.6 percentage points on retention. We further find that classification accuracy remains stable at 99 % even as approximate-nearest-neighbour recall@5 degrades from 0.69 to 0.23 across 10 k to 10 M corpus scales, suggesting the substrate's margin-band majority vote is robust to retrieval imperfection in a way that pure top-k recall metrics do not predict. Code and data are available at https://github.com/adriangrassi/ocrr-benchmark.

In classification tasks, models may rely on confounding variables to achieve strong in-distribution performance, capturing spurious features that fail under distribution shift. This shortcut behavior leads to substantial degradation in out-of-distribution settings. Task arithmetic offers a potential solution by removing unwanted signals via subtraction of secondary model updates, but it typically requires full fine-tuning, which is computationally expensive. Prompt tuning provides a parameter-efficient alternative by adapting models through a small set of trainable virtual tokens. Task arithmetic on the resulting prompts presents an appealing alternative to operations on entire models, but the extent to which this approach can limit reliance on spurious features remains to be established. In this work, we study whether composing soft prompts through task arithmetic improves robustness to confounding shifts. We propose Hybrid Prompt Arithmetic (HyPA), which combines task prompts with linearized confounder prompts to counteract spurious correlations. Across multiple benchmarks, HyPA consistently improves the robustness-performance trade-off relative to prompt-arithmetic baselines under distribution shift. We further analyze how HyPA affects hidden representations and find evidence consistent with it mitigating confounding either by reducing the influence of confounder signals on predictions or by suppressing them in the representation. These results establish HyPA as a parameter-efficient and promising approach for improving robustness under confounding shifts in the evaluated setting.

Conformal prediction (CP) provides powerful, distribution-free prediction sets, but its guarantees rely on the exchangeability of training and test data, which is often violated in practice due to covariate shifts. While weighted conformal prediction (WCP) is designed to handle such shifts, it can suffer from significant undercoverage when the density ratio between the distributions is unbounded and/or must be learned. This is because of both overfitting in learning the density ratio, and high variance in estimating the nonconformity score threshold. To address this, we introduce clipped least-squares importance fitting (CLISF) as a reduced-variance method for density ratio estimation. Specifically, we show that density ratios learned using CLISF, when plugged into WCP, have bounded expected undercoverage. Furthermore, we show that the undercoverage can be corrected by running WCP with a slightly inflated coverage target; crucially, we are able to estimate the required level of inflation from the data. We provide the first theoretical guarantees for weight clipping in conformal inference, achieving dataset-conditional coverage with a sample complexity that does not blow up with the higher moments of the true density ratio -- a key limitation of prior work. We verify our results on real-world benchmarks and synthetic data.

Conformal prediction (CP) constructs prediction sets with marginal coverage guarantees under the assumption that the calibration and test distributions are identical. However, under distribution shift, existing approaches primarily align marginal conformal score distributions, which is sufficient to preserve marginal coverage but does not control the conditional coverage error at individual test inputs. As a consequence, CP can remain unreliable in regions where the conditional score distributions are mismatched. In this work, we bound the conditional invalidity of CP under distribution shift in terms of the Wasserstein distance between the calibration and test distributions. This result highlights the role of invertible transport in mitigating conditional coverage degradation. Motivated by this insight, we introduce Branched Normalizing Flow (BNF), a two-branch architecture that normalizes a test input to the calibration distribution and transforms the prediction set of the normalized input back to the test distribution while preserving conditional guarantees. Empirically, BNF consistently improves conditional coverage robustness on nine datasets across a wide range of confidence levels.

Models that are nearly indistinguishable on in-distribution data can behave very differently under distribution shift. We introduce Perturb-and-Correct (P&C), a post-hoc method for constructing epistemically diverse predictors from a single pretrained network. P&C applies random hidden-layer perturbations with a least-squares correction in the following affine layer, producing predictors that agree on calibration data while remaining free to disagree away from it. We analyze this mechanism through the post-correction residual that remains in the activation of the layer corrected using calibration data, yielding a leverage-based preservation bound and a covariance interpretation of ensemble disagreement. Empirically, P&C achieves a strong ID/OOD tradeoff across MuJoCo dynamics prediction and CIFAR-10 OOD detection, and scales to a pretrained ViT-B/16 on ImageNet-1K. In matched comparisons with Deep Ensembles, P&C substantially reduces construction and storage cost. Our findings highlight the potential in further exploiting overparameterization as a strength of deep learning models.

Modern stochastic optimization pipelines increasingly rely on learned generative models to represent uncertainty, while downstream decisions are evaluated almost entirely through Monte Carlo scenarios. This shifts the operational object of uncertainty from an explicit probability law to the sampler induced by the learned generator. Reliability therefore depends on two errors: sampler misspecification and finite-simulation error. We propose Sampler-Robust Optimization (SRO), which optimizes decisions against the worst-case sampler induced by perturbing the learned generator. This sampler-first formulation aligns with simulation-based decision pipelines and admits a sharpness-aware interpretation: it favors decisions whose performance is stable under generator perturbations, rather than merely under the nominal sampler. Under a coverage assumption, we show that the empirical worst-case objective provides a high-probability upper certificate for the true population objective, with finite-simulation error partially absorbed by the robustification used to guard against sampler misspecification. The framework accommodates generative models with or without explicit densities and admits efficient minimax procedures. Portfolio-optimization experiments show that SRO produces more stable decisions and improves out-of-sample performance under distribution shift.

Visual model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) agents can perform well on the training distribution, but often break down once the test environment shifts. In visual MBRL, recognizing that a shift has occurred is often the easier part; the harder part is turning that recognition into useful action-level correction. We study several ways of responding to shift, including planning penalties, direct fine-tuning, global residual correction, and coarse gating. In our experiments, these approaches either do not improve closed-loop control or hurt in-distribution (ID) performance. Based on these negative results, we propose JEPA-Indexed Local Expert Growth. The method uses a frozen JEPA representation only for problem indexing, while cluster-specific residual experts add local action corrections on top of the original controller. The baseline controller itself is not modified. Using paired-bootstrap evaluation, we find that the original naive-preference variant is not stable under stricter testing. In contrast, the harder-pair variant produces statistically significant OOD improvements on all four evaluated shift conditions while preserving ID performance. The learned experts also remain useful when the same shift is encountered again, which supports the view of adaptation as incremental knowledge growth rather than repeated full retraining. We further show that automatic ID rejection can be achieved with simple density models, whereas fine-grained discrimination among OOD sub-families is limited by the representation. Overall, the results indicate that, for visual MBRL under distribution shift, the main challenge is not simply noticing that the environment has changed, but applying the right local action correction after the change has been recognized.

Learning-based fluence map prediction offers a fast alternative to iterative inverse planning in intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT), but its robustness under realistic distribution shifts remains unclear. We study a two-stage transformer pipeline that maps anatomy (CT and contours) to dose and then to beamlet fluence maps. We compare fluence-stage transformer backbones with hierarchical, global, and hybrid attention, trained with a physics-informed loss enforcing energy consistency. Robustness is evaluated under geometric perturbations, radiometric noise, reduced training data, and domain shifts using a prostate IMRT dataset, with additional evaluation of the dose stage on public datasets. Results show smooth degradation under moderate perturbations but sharp failures under severe rotations and noise. Hierarchical transformers (e.g., SwinUNETR) exhibit slower growth in upper-quartile energy error, indicating improved robustness. We further show that SSIM alone fails to capture clinically relevant errors, highlighting the need for physics-informed evaluation.

Foundation segmentation models such as the Segment Anything Model (SAM) have demonstrated strong generalization across natural images; however, their robustness under clinically realistic medical imaging domain shifts remains insufficiently quantified. We present a systematic slice-level robustness audit of SAM (ViT-B) for spleen segmentation in abdominal CT using 1,051 nonempty slices from 41 volumes in the Medical Segmentation Decathlon. A standardized ground-truth-derived bounding-box protocol was used to isolate encoder robustness from prompt uncertainty. Controlled perturbations simulating inter-scanner variability, including Gaussian noise, blur, contrast scaling, gamma correction, and resolution mismatch, were applied across ten conditions. The clean baseline achieved a mean Dice score of 0.9145 (95% CI: [0.909, 0.919]) with a failure rate of 0.67%. Across all perturbations, the absolute mean ΔDice remained below 0.01. Paired Wilcoxon signed-rank tests with Benjamini-Hochberg false discovery rate correction identified statistically significant but small-magnitude changes under selected conditions, while McNemar analysis showed no significant increase in failure probability. These findings indicate that SAM exhibits stable segmentation behavior under moderate CT domain shifts, supporting its role as a robust foundation baseline for medical image segmentation research. As health digital twins increasingly incorporate foundation segmentation models for anatomical modeling and organ-level monitoring, formal characterization of robustness under real-world imaging variability is a necessary step toward trustworthy deployment.

Developing robust and clinically reliable EEG biomarkers requires evaluation frameworks that explicitly address cross population generalization in multi site settings such as Parkinsons disease (PD) detection. Models trained under i.i.d. assumptions often capture population specific artifacts rather than disease relevant neural structure, leading to poor generalization across clinical cohorts. EEG further amplifies this challenge due to low signal to noise ratio and heterogeneous acquisition conditions. We propose a population aware evaluation framework to assess the robustness and clinical reliability of EEG biomarkers under distribution shift. Using an n gram expansion strategy, we enumerate all cross population train test configurations across five independent cohorts, resulting in 75 directional evaluations. A nested cross validation design with integrated channel selection ensures prospective biomarker identification without population leakage. Results show that cross population transfer is asymmetric and that both accuracy and biomarker stability improve with increasing training population diversity, achieving up to 94.1% accuracy on held out cohorts. A theoretical analysis based on mixture risk optimization and hypothesis space contraction explains these trends, showing that multi population training promotes population robust representations. This work establishes a principled framework for learning robust, generalizable, and clinically reliable EEG biomarkers for multi site biomedical applications.

Parametric projections let analysts embed new points in real time, but input variations from measurement noise or data drift can produce unpredictable shifts in the 2D layout. Whether and where a projection is locally stable remains largely unexamined. In this paper, we present a stability evaluation framework that probes parametric projections with Gaussian perturbations around selected anchor points and assesses how neighborhoods deform in the 2D embedding. Our approach combines quantitative measures of mean displacement, bias, and nearest-anchor assignment error with per-anchor visualizations of displacement vectors, local PCA ellipsoids, and Voronoi misassignment for detailed inspection. We demonstrate the framework's effectiveness on UMAP- and t-SNE-based neural projectors of varying network sizes and study the effect of Jacobian regularization as a gradient-based robustness strategy. We apply our framework to the MNIST and Fashion-MNIST datasets. The results show that our framework identifies unstable projection regions invisible to reconstruction error or neighborhood-preservation metrics.

PGD adversarial training, the standard robustness method, can reduce Jacobian Frobenius norm yet worsen clean-input geometry (e.g., TDI 1.336 vs. ERM 1.093). We show this is not an implementation artifact but a theorem-level consequence of supervised learning. We prove that any encoder minimizing supervised loss must retain non-zero sensitivity along directions correlated with training labels, including directions that are nuisance at test time. This holds across proper scoring rules, architectures, and dataset sizes. We call this the geometric blind spot of supervised learning. This theorem unifies four empirical phenomena often treated separately: non-robust features, texture bias, corruption fragility, and the robustness-accuracy tradeoff. It also explains why suppressing sensitivity in one adversarial direction can redistribute sensitivity elsewhere. We introduce Trajectory Deviation Index (TDI), a diagnostic of geometric isotropy. Unlike CKA, intrinsic dimension, or Jacobian Frobenius norm alone, TDI captures the failure mode above. In our experiments, PGD attains low Frobenius norm but high TDI, while PMH attains the lowest TDI with one additional training term and no architectural changes. Across seven tasks, BERT/SST-2, and ImageNet ViT-B/16 (backbone family underlying CLIP/DINO/SAM), the blind spot is measurable and repairable. It appears at foundation-model scale, worsens with model scale and task-specific fine-tuning, and is substantially reduced by PMH. PMH also leads on non-Gaussian corruption types (blur/brightness/contrast) without corruption-specific training.

Variability in illumination is a primary factor limiting deep learning robustness for field-based plant disease detection. This study evaluates Histogram Matching (HM), a technique that transforms the pixel intensity distribution of an image to match a reference profile, to mitigate this in grapevine classification, distinguishing among healthy leaves, downy mildew, and spider mite damage. We propose a dual-stage integration of HM: (i) as a preprocessing step for normalization, and (ii) as a data augmentation technique to introduce controlled training variability. Experiments using 1,469 RGB images (comprising homogeneous leaf-focused and heterogeneous canopy samples) to train ResNet-18 models demonstrate that this combination significantly enhances robustness on real-world canopy images. While leaf-focused samples showed marginal gains, the canopy subset improved markedly, indicating that balancing normalization with histogram-based diversification effectively bridges the domain gap caused by uncontrolled lighting.

Data scarcity remains a fundamental bottleneck in applying deep learning to wireless communication problems, particularly in scenarios where collecting labeled Radio Frequency (RF) data is expensive, time-consuming, or operationally constrained. This paper proposes LLM-AUG, a data augmentation framework that leverages in-context learning in large language models (LLMs) to generate synthetic training samples directly in a learned embedding space. Unlike conventional generative approaches that require training task-specific models, LLM-AUG performs data generation through structured prompting, enabling rapid adaptation in low-shot regimes. We evaluate LLM-AUG on two representative tasks: modulation classification and interference classification using the RadioML 2016.10A dataset, and the Interference Classification (IC) dataset respectively. Results show that LLM-AUG consistently outperforms traditional augmentation and deep generative baselines across low-shot settings and reaches near oracle performance using only 15% labeled data. LLM-AUG further demonstrates improved robustness under distribution shifts, yielding a 29.4% relative gain over diffusion-based augmentation at a lower SNR value. On the RadioML and IC datasets, LLM-AUG yields a relative gain of 67.6% and 35.7% over the diffusion-based baseline. The t-SNE visualizations further validate that synthetic samples generated by better preserve class structure in the embedding space, leading to more consistent and informative augmentations. These results demonstrate that LLMs can serve as effective and practical data augmenters for wireless machine learning, enabling robust and data-efficient learning in evolving wireless environments.