Decision Thresholds

Safety alignment learned in high-resource languages transfers poorly to low-resource languages. Models refuse harmful prompts in English but fail to refuse when the same prompts are translated into Swahili or Burmese. Adaptive steering methods like AdaSteer and CAST inherit this failure cross-lingually. We diagnose where transfer breaks down. Across Qwen2.5-7B, Gemma-2-9B, and Llama-3.1-8B on 23 languages, the harmfulness direction extracted from high-resource activations linearly separates harmful from harmless low-resource prompts nearly as well as high-resource ones. The relevant representation is present. Yet harmful refusal drops from 87.9% to 43.9%. The model fails to convert the representation into refusal. What fails to transfer is calibration of the safety decision, not the underlying representation. We exploit this by recalibrating, rather than retraining, a high-resource gate: a low-rank logistic readout with its decision threshold reset using as few as 1 to 4 target-language examples per class. The gate routes between refusal steering and harmfulness-direction ablation, substantially raising mean refusal selectivity ($Δ$ = harmful $-$ harmless refusal) from 33.6 for the strongest adapted baseline to 54.5 while preserving MMLU utility. These results suggest that some low-resource safety failures can be repaired by recalibrating existing representations rather than learning new ones. Our code is released: https://github.com/rashadaziz/low-resource-safety.

This paper develops a model-theoretic framework for verifying context-conditioned language-model behavior by replacing benchmark labels with finite semantic certificates. The first problem is finite determinacy: when do examples in a context force the answer to a query without changing model parameters? In finite-field linear task families, we prove an exact row-space criterion, compute the residual hypothesis count, derive full and query-local identification curves, and show that extracting a smallest forcing subcontext is NP-complete even for binary outputs. The second problem is threshold emergence: when does an apparent benchmark jump reflect a semantic transition rather than a discontinuity of the scoring map? We prove an anti-mirage theorem separating thresholded metrics from semantic confidence and give a rate-sensitive crossing bound for latent commitments becoming visible above threshold. The common semantic object is a confidence functional on definable events. We show that it is a Boolean probability measure, equivalently a Keisler measure on the relevant type space, whose measure-one formulas form a proper filter and whose Stone-space representation is invariant under definitional expansion. The resulting calculus provides finite context certificates, pair-separator hitting sets, query teaching dimension, prompt-preservation criteria, and scale-limit witnesses. Exact-arithmetic ancillary scripts reproduce the finite-field and threshold calculations and generate the data used by the figures.

Protein-language systems are often evaluated by whether they generate plausible biological text, but a structural question has a sharper semantics: it denotes a measurement in a 3D coordinate system. We introduce ProtStructQA, an executable benchmark for protein structural question answering in which each natural-language question is generated from a hidden typed domain-specific language (DSL) program and the answer is obtained by executing that program on an AlphaFold-predicted structure. ProtStructQA releases 382.2K questions covering confidence, distances, predicted aligned error (PAE), solvent exposure, secondary structure, topology and contacts, and held-out compositions: a 330K active benchmark over 10K proteins from four species, plus a 52.2K hard-negative robustness pool. Without fine-tuning, we evaluate Qwen3 models from 0.6B to 8B under direct prompting, chain-of-thought, grammar-constrained executable voting, executable voting with chain-of-thought, and multi-turn ReAct-style tool use, and replicate the headline finding on Gemma-3-1B and Gemma-3-12B. We find a capability-dependent denotation threshold between Qwen3-1.7B and Qwen3-4B: below it, tool-mediated ReAct dominates because models often fail to produce executable denotations; above it, chain-of-thought flips from mostly harmful to strongly beneficial and becomes the strongest strategy on most splits. Parse-failure and family-level analyses show that the threshold is a transition from unparseable language to executable structural denotation, while grammar and execution remain selectively valuable for PAE and secondary-structure queries. ProtStructQA reframes scientific QA as compilation from language to measurement and provides a diagnostic testbed for when language models can map words to executable 3D structural measurements.

When many reinforcement-learning policies achieve near-optimal return, a post-hoc auditor may have to distinguish among many behaviorally distinct but return-equivalent policies. We formalize this phenomenon through an occupancy-measure analogue of Rashomon capacity: the metric entropy of the near-optimal occupancy region, computed relative to an audited deployment class. Because occupancy measures identify behavior only up to occupancy equivalence, we formulate auditing at the occupancy-class level and distinguish exact local-query oracles from noisy sample-query oracles. Our main exact-query result is conditional: if the audited class contains a $2/H$-separated near-optimal packing whose local signatures are $b$-sparse, then exact local-query auditing requires $Ω(M/b)$ queries; when the packing realizes deployment-class capacity and $b=O(1)$, this becomes $Ω(2^{\Hopt^\cF(\eps)})$. We give a finite discounted hidden-branch MDP attaining this bound and show the exact Bayes success law. For noisy hidden-trigger testing, we prove a mixture lower bound of order $M/β$, where $β$ is the per-sample KL signal, yielding $Ω(2^{\Hopt^\cF(\eps)}/(ρ^2Δ^2))$ for capacity-order packings with $β=O(ρ^2Δ^2)$. We also provide a static target-recognition information lower bound, a transcript-compatible oracle-cover verification upper bound, and a canonical occupancy regularizer whose regularized audited capacity collapses when a trusted reference occupancy is available. Controlled benchmarks distinguish positive sparse-signature instances from high-capacity negative controls where exact auditing is easy, and map the noisy-trigger law to post-processed continuous-control and visual-RL auditing regimes.

While LLM-based Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) achieves high accuracy, its speed is limited by sequential autoregressive decoding. Diffusion Language Models (DLMs) offer a parallel alternative, yet their decoding strategies remain under-explored in ASR contexts. This paper analyzes three decoding schemes for DLM-based ASR: fixed-number, static confidence threshold, and dynamic confidence threshold. We introduce a round-wise analysis of decoding progress using Negative Log-Likelihood-based uncertainty as a proxy for prediction reliability. Our results show that both threshold-based strategies provide a better accuracy-speed trade-off than fixed-number schemes. This behavior is associated with the more concentrated confidence distribution observed in the evaluated ASR settings: many tokens reach high confidence early, enabling multiple tokens to be committed in early decoding rounds while lower-confidence tokens are deferred to later rounds. The static-threshold strategy achieves accuracy close to autoregressive decoding at lower decoding cost.

AI governance frameworks increasingly emphasize fairness, transparency, accountability, and lifecycle risk management in high-stakes domains. However, many current approaches remain observational, relying on static metric reporting, post-hoc auditing, and monitoring dashboards without directly governing deployment readiness, remediation progression, escalation states, or assurance-driven deployment control. This paper introduces Operational AI Deployment Assurance (OADA), a governance framework for translating fairness disagreement, subgroup instability, threshold sensitivity, remediation outcomes, and operational uncertainty into deployment-oriented assurance decisions. Building on prior work on the Fairness Disagreement Index (FDI) and FairRisk-FDI, OADA reframes governance uncertainty as an operational concern within AI deployment pipelines rather than a byproduct of metric disagreement. The framework introduces Deployment Assurance Scores, Deployment Readiness Classifications, Threshold Stability Zones, Governance Escalation States, and remediation-aware assurance progression. These constructs support lifecycle-oriented governance decisions across high-stakes settings by connecting evaluation outputs to deployment-state interpretation, reassessment, escalation, and operational control. Through deployment-oriented evaluation across facial recognition systems, with discussion extended to healthcare AI as a representative high-stakes domain, the paper demonstrates how systems may appear acceptable under isolated fairness or performance metrics while still exhibiting instability that affects deployment readiness. The proposed framework positions operational deployment assurance as a governance layer between evaluation and real-world AI deployment.

Multilevel image thresholding is widely used for segmentation in applications ranging from medical imaging to remote sensing. Classical objective functions, such as Otsu's between-class variance and Kapur's entropy, are often optimized using metaheuristic algorithms, with performance evaluated via metrics like Structural Similarity Index (SSIM) and Peak Signal-to-Noise Ratio (PSNR). These evaluations implicitly assume that SSIM and PSNR provide unbiased measures of segmentation quality. In this study, we examine this assumption by analyzing the correlation between thresholding objective functions and quality metrics across all possible thresholds for images in the BSDS500 dataset. Results show that Otsu's criterion consistently exhibits high correlation with both SSIM and PSNR, while Kapur's entropy demonstrates weaker and more variable correlation. Otsu outperforms Kapur in correlation with PSNR for all images and with SSIM for over 91%. Our findings reveal an inherent metric-objective-function bias. This work highlights the need for more neutral evaluation frameworks and motivates extending the analysis to additional thresholding criteria and domains. Source code of this paper can be found at https://w3id.org/met-dp/icpr26-95

As state-of-the-art neural networks are deployed on reasoning and algorithmic tasks, exactness guarantees become increasingly important. However, high average-case accuracy can still mask inconsistent behaviors. This motivates exact certification, which asks for the smallest set of labeled examples needed to certify that a learned hypothesis equals the target. We show that while some hypotheses are easy to certify, even minimal overparametrization can make certification exponentially hard across several hypothesis classes. For threshold circuits of depth $\ge 2$, adding a single extra gate can force certificate sizes exponential in the input dimension. We show an analogous hardness result for log-precision Transformers with only constant architectural overhead. We also characterize approximate certification, showing that allowing only polynomially many mistakes still requires exponentially large certificates, whereas constant relative-error guarantees can hide exponentially many mistakes. Empirically, we study certification for constructed circuits and trained Transformers for recognizing binary addition. While the constructed circuits instantiate the exponential barrier for certification, the trained Transformer analysis shows that imperfect models can evade detection by large uniformly sampled certificate candidates.

We study the contradiction graphs associated with binary concept classes. For a class $H \subseteq \{0,1\}^X$, the order-$m$ contradiction graph $G_m(H)$ has as vertices the $H$-realizable labeled sequences of length $m$, with two vertices adjacent when the two sequences assign opposite labels to some common domain point. Our main result is that the single graph $G_m(H)$ determines the threshold predicate $\mathrm{VCdim}(H)\ge m$. Consequently, the full sequence $(G_m(H))_{m \ge 1}$ determines the exact VC dimension and, in particular, detects finite versus infinite VC dimension, answering a question posed by Alon et al. (2024).

Agent Skills, structured packages of procedural knowledge loaded into an LLM agent at inference time, are widely reported to improve task pass rates by an average of 16.2percentage points across diverse domains. Yet the same benchmarks show wide variance, with 16 of 84 tasks suffering negative deltas when Skills are introduced. The community has not yet articulated a clean mechanism for \emph{when} Skills help and when they are merely redundant overhead. We re-analyze a recently published 180-run controlled study of an MCP-grounded autonomous Capture-the-Flag (CTF) agent under four documentation conditions of increasing richness (591, 12865, 17253, and 36001 tokens) and show that these conditions correspond almost exactly to a No-Skills, Experiential-Skills, Curated-Skills, and Comprehensive-Skills ablation. In offensive cybersecurity, a domain not deeply covered by existing Skills benchmarks, the marginal benefit of Skills collapses. The spread between the no-Skills and full-Skills conditions is only 8.9pp ($p = 0.71$, $χ^2$; $p = 0.25$, Cochran--Armitage trend test; five of six pairwise Cohen's $h$ values fall below the $0.2$ small-effect threshold). We argue that the missing variable is \emph{environment-feedback bandwidth}. When an agent's tool layer returns strict, schema-validated, low-latency observations, the environment itself supplies the procedural correction signal that Skills are normally needed to provide. As a result, the marginal benefit of curated Skills diminishes substantially, and, in some cases (e.g., our timing side-channel setting), actively degrades performance. We articulate a falsifiable hypothesis, sketch its design implications for compound AI systems, and will release the reanalysis pipeline to support replication.

Industrial multi-label document understanding pipelines score candidate labels and threshold or rank them to form a label set per document. This early selection step directly affects the accuracy of downstream information extraction from the document, as well as the associated verification effort. In practice, OCR noise, label imbalance, instance-dependent label cardinality, and asymmetric error costs make global score thresholds brittle and hard to maintain as document formats evolve. We present RAPT, a deployment-oriented retrieval-augmented score thresholding wrapper, applied post-hoc to improve label set selection without retraining the underlying classifier. RAPT is a model-agnostic wrapper: any predictor that provides document representations for similarity search and per label confidence scores can be used, including metric learning encoders and fine-tuned transformer classifiers. For each query document, given a classifier's score vector, RAPT retrieves similar document thresholding situations (cases) and adapts the query's label set selection threshold using their outcomes. The adaptation selects the final label set by locally aggregating neighbour solutions (e.g. average label count, cutoff calibration). Evaluation compared multi-label classifiers (metric learners and transformers) combined with RAPT against global and label-wise thresholding baselines, and against few-shot LLMs. Across an industrial dataset and six public benchmarks, RAPT consistently outperformed global and label-wise static thresholding baselines. In the industrial setting, RAPT achieved its best predictive performance with metric learners, reaching 0.87 Macro-F1, while fine-tuned transformer variants on average achieved 0.775 Macro-F1, outperforming fewshot LLM baselines (K = 5) by 2x and requiring at least 115x less inference time and 13.5x less GPU memory.

Automated plankton image recognition is increasingly used in aquatic ecosystem monitoring, but deployed classifiers inevitably encounter unseen taxa and non-target particles. Open-set recognition methods are usually evaluated with sample-level metrics such as AUROC, AUPR, and FPR@95% unknown-recall operating points, whereas ecological monitoring depends on community-level estimates of taxon abundance and diversity. This study examines the mismatch between these objectives using controlled pseudo-communities and three datasets spanning marine zooplankton imaged by ZooScan, marine phytoplankton imaged by IFCB, and freshwater plankton imaged by an in-situ camera. We define Open-Set Community Distortion (OSCD), a Bray-Curtis-style error over known taxa plus an unknown bin, with directional components distinguishing known-taxon overestimation from underestimation. Closed-set classifiers achieved high known-class accuracy, but unknown samples were often absorbed with high confidence and in structured ways. Sample-level OOD metrics were not sufficient to select ecological operating points: for MSP, FPR@95% unknown-recall thresholds produced large test-community OSCD on all three datasets mainly because true known taxa were over-rejected into the unknown bin. Community-aware threshold calibration reduced MSP OSCD relative to fixed 95% known recall on SYKE-ZooScan 2024 and SYKE-IFCB 2022; on ZooLake the fixed-recall baseline was already close to the community-aware threshold, and the best community-level method was a prototype-distance variant rather than MSP. The benefit of community-aware calibration therefore depends on validation-community representativeness and the gap between fixed recall and the community optimum. These results show that open-set plankton recognition should be evaluated as an ecological measurement problem, not only as a sample-level detection task.

Critical-data-size accounts of grokking suggest a natural post-threshold intuition: once training data is sufficient to identify the underlying rule, additional data should accelerate validation convergence. We show that this intuition can fail in a controlled structured-output task. In Needleman--Wunsch (NW) matrix generation, small Transformers reach high validation exact-match accuracy fastest at an intermediate dataset size, not at the largest one. Past this dataset-size sweet spot, generalization remains achievable but requires more gradient updates. Conversely, in the regime where partial validation competence first appears, larger datasets can require fewer updates to reach high training accuracy, suggesting that emerging rule structure can accelerate fitting beyond example-wise memorization. A multiplication baseline does not show the same post-threshold slowdown. These results separate the critical data size for the onset of generalization from the dataset size that optimizes update-based convergence, and identify structured-output tasks where learning the rule and completing exact-fitting can diverge.

Most anomaly detection systems output scores rather than calibrated decisions, leaving practitioners to choose thresholds heuristically and without clear statistical interpretation. Conformal anomaly detection addresses this limitation by converting anomaly scores into calibrated p-values that are valid under the statistical assumption of data exchangeability, with a growing literature extending this idea beyond that setting. We present 'nonconform', a Python package for applying conformal anomaly detection within existing machine-learning workflows, and use it as the basis for an implementation-grounded introduction to the field. The package integrates with 'scikit-learn', 'pyod', and custom anomaly detectors, and provides a unified interface for calibration, p-value generation, and false discovery rate control. It supports several conformalization strategies, ranging from simple split-conformal calibration to more data-efficient and shift-aware extensions. Through a progression from foundational concepts to advanced conformalization strategies, complemented by code examples, the paper connects the statistical ideas behind conformal anomaly detection to their practical use in 'nonconform'. Empirical results demonstrate that the implemented methods enable statistically principled anomaly detection. Together, the package and exposition aim to make core conformal anomaly detection workflows more accessible and reproducible in experimental and production-oriented settings.

Online Multiple Testing (OMT), a fundamental pillar of sequential statistical inference, traditionally evaluates the False Discovery Rate (FDR) and statistical power in isolation, obscuring the highly asymmetric costs of false positives and false negatives in modern automated pipelines. To unify this evaluation, we introduce $\textit{Weighted Regret}$. Under this metric, we prove the $\textit{Duality of Regret Conservation}$: purely deterministic procedures ensuring strict FDR control inevitably incur an $Ω(T)$ linear regret penalty, as threshold depletion during signal-sparse cold starts forces massive false negatives. Tailored for exogenous testing streams, we propose Decoupled-OMT (DOMT) as a baseline-agnostic meta-wrapper. By incorporating a history-decoupled, strictly non-negative random perturbation, DOMT rescues purely deterministic baselines from severe threshold depletion. Crucially, it preserves exact asymptotic safety in stationary environments and rigorously bounds finite-sample error inflation during cold-starts. Guaranteeing zero additional false negatives, it yields an order-optimal $Ω(\sqrt{T})$ regret reduction in bursty environments, with a derived ``Cold-Start Tax'' characterizing the exact phase transition of algorithmic superiority. Experiments validate that DOMT consistently curtails empirical weighted regret, achieving an order-optimal sublinear mitigation of threshold depletion to navigate the non-stationary Pareto frontier.

We give the first quantitative prediction of grokking delay under AdamW. Treating the delay as a first-passage time, we derive a closed-form law T_grok - T_mem = (1 / 2 kappa_LL eta lambda) log(V_mem / V_star), where V_t = ||theta_t||^2 is the squared parameter norm, V_star is an architecture-dependent threshold, and kappa_LL absorbs the AdamW correction to the clean-SGD contraction rate 2 eta lambda. Calibrating (kappa_LL, V_star) on a single hyperparameter cell predicts grokking delays on 26 held-out runs with MAPE 17.7% over a 41x delay range; the law generalises to MLPs (MAPE 18.0%, N=34) and degrades to 23.3% on cross-task extension (N=46, 43.5x range), with a structured residual in which V_star / V_mem stays comparatively stable within architecture (CV about 14% on the 1L transformer). First-passage of V_t is necessary but not sufficient. A quantile-margin theorem establishes that positive delay requires both norm separation V_mem > V_post and angular reachability of a threshold alpha_star = arcsin(C / V_T_mem^(1/2)), where C is computable from the empirical NTK feature map and the validation-margin quantile. Calibrating C on modulus p=89 predicts alpha_star = 47.2 degrees at p=97 (observed 47.8 degrees, error 1.3%) as a prior cross-cell prediction. Causal interventions that freeze the norm or remove weight decay at memorisation eliminate grokking (0/6 vs. 3/3 baseline), trapping the angular displacement near 12 degrees. kappa_LL is empirically measured per architecture rather than derived from (beta_1, beta_2, epsilon); within-architecture CV stays at most 15% across four architectures, but values differ by about 2x between architectural variants beyond depth alone. Empirical scope is algorithmic tasks (modular arithmetic, sparse parity) under AdamW; whether the law transfers to natural-language scale models is open.

Safety in reinforcement learning is often specified through cumulative cost constraints, but these trajectory-level guarantees do not directly prevent unsafe individual decisions, especially under nonstationarity. In continual and nonstationary settings, the difficulty is amplified because the risk associated with the same action can vary across contexts, while a fixed state-level threshold may be either too conservative or too weak. We propose Constraint Projection Safety Shield (CPSS), a runtime mechanism that converts a cumulative safety budget into adaptive state-level control constraints during execution. CPSS tracks the remaining safety budget, projects it into a time-varying admissible risk threshold, and filters policy actions whose predicted safety cost exceeds the active threshold. The threshold is adjusted online using contextual signals so that enforcement becomes stricter in more demanding or rapidly changing regimes and less restrictive when the available safety budget is sufficient. We analyze the resulting shielded policy and show that the mechanism guarantees per-state threshold satisfaction for executed actions, induces finite-horizon cumulative cost bounds, and yields a performance degradation bound in terms of intervention frequency and per-step reward distortion. We evaluate CPSS in nonstationary highway merging scenarios using highway-env. Across multiple seeds, CPSS substantially reduces proximity-based safety violations and increases separation margins while intervening selectively rather than dominating the learned policy. These results support adaptive budget-to-threshold projection as a practical way to transform cumulative safety specifications into effective local safety control for continual reinforcement learning systems.

Clinical decision-support systems are expert systems whose recommendations clinicians act on directly, yet they are usually cleared on one aggregate accuracy number from a held-out test set. That number says nothing about input reliability under encoding shifts, subgroup gaps, threshold sensitivity, or operational feasibility. We present RISED, a pre-deployment evaluation framework operationalising five dimensions (Reliability, Inclusivity, Sensitivity, Equity, Deployability) through BCa bootstrap 95% confidence intervals, literature-grounded thresholds, and Holm-Bonferroni-corrected PASS / FAIL / INCONCLUSIVE verdicts; Equity is a proxy-dependence diagnostic rather than a gating test. Applied to seven cohorts spanning 35 years (n from 303 to 99,492), RISED surfaces failures invisible to AUROC: on Diabetes 130, Reliability passes by three orders of magnitude (PSS = 0.0004) while Inclusivity (AUC parity gap = 0.262) and Sensitivity (max threshold-flip rate 49.1%) fail decisively; both NHIS cohorts reproduce this. NHANES 2021-2023, with a complete feature profile, achieves INCONCLUSIVE verdicts; BRFSS 2024 produces the suite's most severe Sensitivity failure (max threshold-flip rate 64.2%) after instrument rotation removed hypertension and cholesterol. The pattern recurs on credit- and income-prediction cohorts, confirming domain-agnosticity; a multi-model check shows the failures are data-driven, not model-specific. RISED ships as an open-source Python package complementing TRIPOD+AI, FUTURE-AI, and Fairlearn with the structured numerical evidence those standards require but do not prescribe.

Designing fair algorithmic decision systems requires balancing model performance with fairness toward affected individuals: More fairness might require sacrificing some performance and vice versa, yet the space of possible trade-offs is still poorly understood. We investigate fairness in binary prediction-based decision problems by conceptualizing decision making as a multi-objective optimization problem that simultaneously considers decision-maker utility and group fairness. We investigate the set of Pareto-optimal decision rules for arbitrary utility functions for decision maker, arbitrary population distributions, and a wide range of group fairness metrics. We find that the Pareto frontier consists of deterministic, group-specific threshold rules applied to individuals' success probability. This complements existing optimality theorems from literature which, for specific fairness constraints, posit lower-bound threshold rules only. However we also show that, depending on the used fairness metric, the Pareto frontier may include upper-bound threshold rules, thus preferring individuals with lower success probabilities. We show that the location of the Pareto frontier depends only on population characteristics, utility functions and fairness score, but not on the technical design of the algorithm - our findings hold for pre-, in-, and post-processing approaches alike. Our results generalize existing optimality theorems for fairness-constrained classification and extend them to generalized fairness metrics and fairness principles, and to partial fairness regimes. This paper connects formal fairness research with legal and ethical requirements to search for less discriminatory alternatives, offering a principled foundation for evaluating and comparing algorithmic decision systems.

Safe fine-tuning defenses are often endorsed on the basis of a held-out gap reduction, but the same reduction can come from sampling noise, subject artifacts, capability loss, or a mechanism that does not transfer. We introduce Acceptance Cards: an evaluation protocol, a documentation object, an executable audit package, and a claim-specific evidential standard for safe fine-tuning defense claims. The protocol checks statistical reliability, fresh semantic generalization, mechanism alignment, and cross-task transfer before treating a gap reduction as a full-card pass. Re-scored under this installed-gap protocol, SafeLoRA fails the full-card pass on Gemma-2-2B-it: under strict mechanism-class coding it fails all four diagnostics, and under a permissive shrinkage relabel it still fails three of four. This is a narrow installed-gap audit on one model family, not a global judgment of SafeLoRA's effectiveness. In a 46-cell audit, no cell satisfies the strict conjunction. The closest family is a near miss that passes reliability and mechanism checks where the required data are available, but fails the fresh-subject threshold, lacks a strict transfer pass, and carries a measurable deployment-accuracy cost.

High-throughput gene perturbation experiments can test several genetic interventions in parallel, yet experimental budgets remain limited. A central goal is hit discovery: identifying as many perturbations as possible whose phenotypic effect exceeds a predefined threshold. Pure exploration strategies are statistically inefficient, wasting budget on low-value regions. Bayesian optimization methods offer a principled alternative but target a single global optimum, over-exploiting dominant modes while neglecting other high-value regions. We formalize hit discovery as a sequential experimental design problem and propose Probability-of-Hit, an acquisition function that directly targets threshold exceedance by ranking candidates according to their posterior probability of being a hit. We prove asymptotic optimality of this approach and demonstrate strong empirical performance on both synthetic benchmarks and real biological immunology datasets, including up to 6.4% improvement over baselines on the Schmidt IL-2 dataset.

Many high-stakes decisions in health care, public policy, and clinical development require committing to a single policy that will be applied uniformly across a heterogeneous population. Regulatory and fairness standards sometime requires that the chosen policy performs adequately in every pre-specified subpopulation, not only on average. We formalize this as a Selection of the Best with Fairness Constraints (SBFC) problem, in order to identify the policy with the highest average performance among those policies that meet a minimum per-subpopulation threshold. We establish an instance-specific lower bound on sample complexity of the SBFC problem. We then develop a Track-and-Stop with Constraints on Subpopulation (T-a-S-CS) algorithm that achieves the lower bound asymptotically. We extend the framework to general closed-set and penalty-based fairness specifications with matching guarantees. Numerical experiments and a case study using the International Stroke Trial demonstrate substantial efficiency gains over policy-level allocation baselines.

An agent's probability report is paid for twice: by a strictly proper scoring rule, and by an approval rule for the decision it triggers. In this classical decision-coupled setting, non-affine approval is known to defeat truthful reporting. We show the conflict is endogenous: when feasible, the welfare-maximizing approval rule is never affine. The distortion, however, is predictable and can be designed around. There is a reserve report at which pretending to be the marginal type costs exactly the approval prize. Approving at or above the reserve screens types perfectly under every strictly proper score, and the reserve does not depend on the type distribution. A Lipschitz rule with a single kink attains first-best exactly; under strict feasibility no continuously differentiable rule does. The binding constraint is steepness, not smoothness. First-best is attainable within a slope budget if and only if the budget is at least the critical slope: the steepest chord of the pretending cost up to the reserve. Below it the welfare loss is cubic in the shortfall. Where the pretending cost is convex up to the reserve, as for Brier, log and power scores, the critical slope is closed-form. The instances are AI-agent oversight and marketplace operation.

Predictive models are often deployed through existing decision policies that stakeholders are reluctant to change unless a risk constraint requires intervention. We study risk-controlled post-processing: given a deterministic baseline policy, choose a new policy that maximizes agreement with the baseline subject to a chance constraint on a user-specified loss. At the population level, we show that the optimal policy has a threshold structure: it follows the baseline except on contexts where switching to the oracle fallback policy yields a large reduction in conditional violation risk. At the finite-sample level, given a fitted fallback policy and score, we develop a post-processing algorithm that uses calibration data to select a threshold. Leveraging tools from algorithmic stability and stochastic processes, we show that under regularity conditions, in the i.i.d. setting, the expected excess risk of the post-processed policy is $O(\log n/n)$. In the special case when an exact-safe fallback policy is available, the algorithm achieves precise expected risk control under exchangeability. In this setting, we also give high-probability near-optimality guarantees on the post-processed policy. Experiments on a COVID-19 radiograph diagnosis task, an LLM routing problem, and a synthetic multiclass decision task show that targeted post-processing can meet or nearly meet risk budgets while preserving substantially more agreement with the baseline than score-blind random mixing.

Benign overfitting is well-characterized in $\ell_2$ geometries, but its behavior under the $\ell_1$ implicit bias of greedy ensembles remains challenging. The analytical barrier stems from the non-linear coupling of coordinate selection thresholds, which invalidates standard spectral resolvent tools. To isolate this algorithmic bias, we characterize the high-dimensional risk of continuous-time $\ell_2$-Boosting over $p$ features and $n$ samples. By coupling the Convex Gaussian Minimax Theorem with delicate asymptotic expansions of double-sided truncated Gaussian moments, we analytically resolve the non-smooth $\ell_1$ interpolant. Under an isotropic pure-noise model, we prove that benign overfitting fails at the linear rate: greedy selection localizes noise into sparse active sets, and the excess variance decays at a logarithmic rate $Θ(σ^2/\log(p/n))$ for noise variance $σ^2$. We remark that while this localization mechanism should persist in the presence of signals, the exact signal-noise decomposition remains an open problem. For spiked-isotropic designs with $k^*$ head eigenvalues and $r_2 = p - k^*$ tail dimensions, the risk converges to zero when $r_{2} \gg n$, but only at a logarithmic rate $Θ(σ^2/\log(r_2/n))$, which is slower than the linear decay observed in $\ell_2$ geometries. To avoid this slow convergence, we analyze the non-smooth subdifferential dynamics of the boosting flow. This yields a tuning-free early stopping rule that, under a bounded $\ell_1$-path condition, recovers the Lasso basic inequality and attains the minimax-optimal empirical prediction rate for $\ell_1$-bounded signals.

How many key-value associations can a $d\times d$ linear memory store? We show that the answer depends not only on the $d^2$ degrees of freedom in the memory matrix, but also on the retrieval criterion. In an isotropic Gaussian model for the stored pairs, we show that top-1 retrieval, where every signal must beat its largest distractor, requires the logarithmic model-size scale $d^2\asymp n\log n$. We prove that the correlation matrix memory construction, which stores associations by superposing key-target outer products, achieves this scale through a sharp phase transition, and that the same scaling is necessary for any linear memory. Thus the logarithm is the intrinsic extreme-value price of winner-take-all decoding. We next consider listwise retrieval, where the correct target need not be the unique top-scoring item but should remain among the strongest candidates. To formalize this regime, we propose the Tail-Average Margin (TAM), a convex upper-tail criterion that certifies inclusion of the correct target in a controlled candidate list. Under this listwise retrieval criterion, the capacity follows the quadratic scale $d^2\asymp n$. At load $n/d^2\toα$, we develop an exact asymptotic theory for the TAM empirical-risk minimizer through a two-parameter scalar variational principle. The theory has a rich phenomenology: in the ridgeless limit it yields a closed-form critical load separating satisfiable and unsatisfiable phases, and it predicts the limiting laws of true scores, competitor scores, margins, and percentile profiles. Finally, a small-tail extrapolation further leads to the conjectural sharp top-1 threshold $d^2\sim 2n\log n$.

We present our system for SemEval-2026 Task 9: Multilingual Polarization Detection, a binary classification task spanning 22 languages. Our approach fine-tunes separate Gemma~3 models (12B and 27B parameters) per language using Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA), augmented with synthetic data generated by a large language model (LLM). We employ three synthetic data strategies (direct generation, paraphrasing, and contrastive pair creation) using GPT-4o-mini, with a multi-stage quality filtering pipeline including embedding-based deduplication. We find that per-language threshold tuning on the development set yields 2 to 4% F1 improvements without retraining. We also use weighted ensembles of 12B and 27B model predictions with per-language strategy selection. Our final system achieves a mean macro-F1 of 0.811 across all 22 languages, ranking 2nd overall of the participating teams, with 1st place finishes in 3 languages and top-3 in 8 languages. We also find that alternative architectures (XLM-RoBERTa, Qwen3) that showed strong development set performance suffered 30 to 50% F1 drops on the test set, highlighting the importance of generalization.

Scene understanding is a vital part of autonomous driving systems, which requires the use of deep learning models. Deep learning methods are intrinsically black box models, which lack transparency and safety in autonomous driving. To make these systems transparent, multi-task visual understanding has become crucial for explainable autonomous driving perception systems, where simultaneous prediction of multiple driving behaviors and their underlying explanations is essential for safe navigation and human trust in autonomous vehicles. In order to design an accurate and cross-cultural explainable autonomous driving system, we introduce a comprehensive confidence threshold sensitivity analysis that evaluates various threshold values to identify optimal decision boundaries for different tasks. Our analysis demonstrates that traditional fixed threshold approaches are suboptimal for multi-task scenarios. Through extensive evaluation, we demonstrate that our adaptive threshold selection methodology improves F1-scores across different tasks. In addition, we introduce IUST-XAI-AD, a novel dataset consisting of 958 images with human annotations for driving decisions and corresponding reasoning. This dataset addresses the critical gap in domain-specific evaluation benchmarks for distinct driving contexts and provides a more challenging test environment compared to existing datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that confidence threshold sensitivity analysis can significantly improve model performance, while the introduction of the IUST-XAI-AD dataset reveals important insights about cross-cultural driving behavior patterns. The combined contributions of this work provide both methodological advances and practical evaluation tools that can accelerate the development of more reliable, explainable, and culturally-adaptive autonomous driving systems for global deployment.

We show that a threshold in decision capacity determines whether self-play reinforcement learning agents collapse under asymmetric rule perturbations. Across poker variants, matrix games, a dice game, and multiple learning algorithms, eliminating all positive-reach contingent decisions causes rapid convergence to a deterministic exploitation attractor, a fixed point at near-maximal loss. Preserving even a single positive-reach contingent decision point prevents this collapse. A frozen baseline and fixed-opponent control confirm that the mechanism is co-adaptation under constraint, not the perturbation itself. The phenomenon is timing-invariant, fully reversible upon action restoration, and intensifies under function approximation. These results establish a sharp threshold at zero reach-weighted contingent action capacity, with severity scaling continuously via reach-weighted capacity in the tested domains.

This paper introduces the use of per-class regularization hyperparameters in Gabriel graph-based binary classifiers. We demonstrate how the quality index used for regularization behaves both in the margin region and in the presence of outliers, and how incorporating this regularization flexibility can lead to solutions that effectively eliminate outliers while training the classifier. We also show how it can address class imbalance by generating higher and lower thresholds for the majority and minority classes, respectively. Thus, rather than having a single solution based on fixed thresholds, flexible thresholds expand the solution space and can be optimized through hyperparameter tuning algorithms. Friedman test shows that flexible thresholds are capable of improving Gabriel graph-based classifiers.

We introduce the Banach-Butterfly Invariant (BBT), an influence-adaptive Banach geometry on the Walsh-Hadamard butterfly factorization. For a Boolean function $f:\{-1,+1\}^n\to\{-1,+1\}$ with coordinate influences $\mathrm{Inf}_\ell(f)$, BBT assigns exponent $p_\ell = 1+\mathrm{Inf}_\ell(f)$ to butterfly layer $\ell$, yielding the contraction invariant $μ(f)=\prod_\ell 2^{-\mathrm{Inf}_\ell/(1+\mathrm{Inf}_\ell)}$. We prove a Jensen lower bound $\log_2μ(f) \ge -I(f)/(1+I(f)/n)$ and that $μ$ is strictly Schur-convex in the influence vector (modulo permutation), giving scaling classes $μ\sim 2^{-n/2}$ (parity), $2^{-Θ(\sqrt{n})}$ (majority), $2^{-1/2}$ (dictators). $\log_2μ$ is rational but not polynomial in the Fourier coefficients while $μ$ is algebraic, and $μ$ separates functions with identical total influence (122 pairs at $n=3$). Using the certified $n \le 4$ ternary Walsh-threshold universe from a companion synthesis manuscript as a finite testbed, we compute exact MILP minimum-support certificates for all 65,536 Boolean functions at $n=4$ (mean 6.42, max 9, all-odd by a parity argument) and on 10,000 of the 616,126 NPN-canonical representatives we enumerate at $n=5$ (matching OEIS A000370). Conditional Spearman $ρ(μ,|\mathrm{supp}|)$ at fixed total influence is $+0.571$ in the largest stratum at $n=4$ but reverses to $-0.38$ at $n=5$ under both function-uniform and NPN-canonical sampling: $μ$ is a valid Schur-convex concentration invariant, not a universal monotone predictor of minimum support across $n$. A companion application paper validates a real-valued WHT activation-energy proxy inspired by this theory on five pretrained LLMs at W2A16, cutting wikitext-2 perplexity by 15-58% versus vanilla auto-round; the transfer from Boolean theory to the real-valued proxy is qualitative, not formal.

Two recent approaches to computation in superposition reach different recursive capacity regimes: Hänni et al. certify $\tilde{O}(d^{3/2})$ computable features in width $d$ via an approximate-linear recursive template, while Adler and Shavit reach near-quadratic capacity (up to logarithmic factors) using thresholded Boolean recovery. The main contribution of this paper is conceptual: we argue these results are not contradictory because they maintain different interface invariants, and we formalize the distinction. As a tool, we record a rank-trace Welch-type lower bound for biorthogonal linear readouts: for $F \gg d$, the worst-case off-diagonal cross-talk of any unit-diagonal linear readout is $Ω(d^{-1/2})$, and the bound is tight on average for unit-norm tight frames. At quadratic feature load $F=d^2$, random-support threshold recovery succeeds for sparsities $s=O(d/\log d)$, while linear readouts still incur $Ω(s/d)$ average per-coordinate squared error on Bernoulli sparse states. Matching the Welch floor against the published tolerance of the Hänni correction layer explains the $d^{3/2}$ scale as a compatibility threshold for that template, not a universal upper bound. Robust nonlinear reset beyond the Hänni template is left open.

The ability of large language models (LLMs) to express calibrated uncertainty is important for safe deployment. Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning is widely used to improve accuracy and reliability, but its effect on calibration is not fully understood. We show that this picture is incomplete: in some settings, increasing the reasoning budget beyond a task-specific threshold can cause models to become systematically overconfident, assigning high confidence to incorrect answers. We call this phenomenon Calibration Drift Under Reasoning (CDUR) and study it both theoretically and empirically. We define reasoning budget B and analyze conditions under which Expected Calibration Error ECE(B) follows a non-monotonic pattern: it first decreases as reasoning corrects errors, then increases as longer reasoning produces internally consistent but incorrect explanations. We propose a Hypothesis Lock-In model based on autoregressive generation to explain this behavior. We evaluate Llama-3.1-8B and Llama-3.3-70B on 47 reasoning-trap questions across four reasoning budgets and three seeds (1,368 API calls; 574 valid responses). The 8B model shows non-monotonic calibration behavior, while results for the 70B model are limited to baseline evaluation and are inconclusive for budget-dependent effects. We introduce CABStop, a calibration-aware stopping rule that halts reasoning when confidence diverges from an auxiliary accuracy estimate. These results suggest that increasing reasoning depth does not always improve reliability and should be monitored carefully.

In [97,99,100], an fl-RDT framework is introduced to characterize \emph{statistical computational gaps} (SCGs). Studying \emph{symmetric binary perceptrons} (SBPs), [100] obtained an \emph{algorithmic} threshold estimate $α_a\approx α_c^{(7)}\approx 1.6093$ at the 7th lifting level (for $κ=1$ margin), closely approaching $1.58$ local entropy (LE) prediction [18]. In this paper, we further connect parametric RDT to overlap gap properties (OGPs), another key geometric feature of the solution space. Specifically, for any positive integer $s$, we consider $s$-level ultrametric OGPs ($ult_s$-OGPs) and rigorously upper-bound the associated constraint densities $α_{ult_s}$. To achieve this, we develop an analytical union-bounding program consisting of combinatorial and probabilistic components. By casting the combinatorial part as a convex problem and the probabilistic part as a nested integration, we conduct numerical evaluations and obtain that the tightest bounds at the first two levels, $\barα_{ult_1} \approx 1.6578$ and $\barα_{ult_2} \approx 1.6219$, closely approach the 3rd and 4th lifting level parametric RDT estimates, $α_c^{(3)} \approx 1.6576$ and $α_c^{(4)} \approx 1.6218$. We also observe excellent agreement across other key parameters, including overlap values and the relative sizes of ultrametric clusters. Based on these observations, we propose several conjectures linking $ult$-OGP and parametric RDT. Specifically, we conjecture that algorithmic threshold $α_a=\lim_{s\rightarrow\infty} α_{ult_s} = \lim_{s\rightarrow\infty} \barα{ult_s} = \lim_{r\rightarrow\infty} α_{c}^{(r)}$, and $α_{ult_s} \leq α_{c}^{(s+2)}$ (with possible equality for some (maybe even all) $s$). Finally, we discuss the potential existence of a full isomorphism connecting all key parameters of $ult$-OGP and parametric RDT.

Morphing is a challenge to face recognition (FR) for which several morphing attack detection solutions have been proposed. We argue that face recognition and differential morphing attack detection (D-MAD) in principle perform very similar tasks, which we support by comparing an FR system with two existing D-MAD approaches. We also show that currently used decision thresholds inherently lead to FR systems being vulnerable to morphing attacks and that this explains the tradeoff between performance on normal images and vulnerability to morphing attacks. We propose using FR systems that are already in place for morphing detection and introduce a new evaluation threshold that guarantees an upper limit to the vulnerability to morphing attacks - even of unknown types.

Risk scoring systems are widely used in high-stakes domains to assist decision-making. However, existing approaches often focus on optimizing predictive accuracy or likelihood-based criteria, which may not align with the main goal of maximizing utility. In this paper, we propose a novel risk scoring system that directly optimizes net benefit over a range of decision thresholds. The model is formulated as a sparse integer linear programming problem which enables the construction of a transparent scoring system with integer coefficients, and hence, facilitates interpretation and practical application. We also establish fundamental relationships among net benefit, discrimination, and calibration. Our analysis proves that optimizing net benefit also guarantees conventional performance measures. We evaluated our method on multiple public datasets as well as on a large-scale credit risk dataset. This computational study demonstrated that our interpretable method can effectively achieve high net benefit while maintaining competitive discrimination and calibration performance.

To reduce memory consumption during LLM inference, a handful of methods have been proposed for KV cache pruning. While these techniques can accomplish lossless memory reduction on many datasets, they often hinge on an under-emphasized condition: an input/domain-specific threshold for KV cache budget needs to be pre-determined to achieve the optimal performance. However, such input-sensitive design may be considerably limited in real-world scenarios, as open-domain inputs span diverse domains, lengths and difficulty levels, without clear boundaries for threshold selection. As a result, the dependence of such input-sensitive threshold can be a fundamental limitation that causes large degradation on arbitrary inputs. In this work, we propose a new objective that lifts the threshold constraints for robust KV compression, advocating for "threshold-free" methods that adaptively adjust budget allocation while preserving full-cache performance. We then propose a novel method, ReFreeKV, serving as the first instantiation of this objective. Extensive experiments across 13 datasets with diverse context lengths, task types, and model sizes demonstrate its efficacy and efficiency. Our code is publicly released at https://github.com/Patrick-Ni/ReFreeKV.

Algorithmic recourse promises to help applicants rejected by automated systems by explaining the changes needed to secure acceptance. What incentive do decision-makers, such as banks and employers, have to offer recourse? We study this question in a screening model in which recourse is both productive and selective: completing recourse improves an applicant's value to the decision-maker, but applicants differ in their cost of completion. The optimal policy is a threshold rule: reject applicants with low scores, offer recourse to an intermediate range of scores, and accept applicants with high scores outright. Because the intermediate range spans the cutoff that would separate acceptance from rejection when recourse is not available, some marginal applicants gain a new path to acceptance, while others---who would have been accepted outright---must now clear a costly hurdle.