Large Language Model-Based Social Simulation

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Overview

This field uses language-model agents to model people interacting through networks, institutions, and shared environments, studying outcomes such as opinion change, cooperation, norms, mobility, and policy responses. Common approaches ground agents in surveys, interviews, behavioral histories, or psychological profiles, then combine prompting or fine-tuning with agent-based models, games, memory, and network dynamics. Researchers validate simulations against human surveys, experiments, and real-world traces, measuring both individual response distributions and collective patterns over time. A central challenge is that plausible dialogue or accurate averages do not ensure faithful individual behavior, diverse populations, causal conclusions, or robust results across models and settings.

Latest papers

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261 papers53 papers in the last four weeks, up 66% on the four weeks before. 0.3% of all new papers.

Mar 18, 2026

MALLES: A Multi-agent LLMs-based Economic Sandbox with Consumer Preference Alignment

In the real economy, modern decision-making is fundamentally challenged by high-dimensional, multimodal environments, which are further complicated by agent heterogeneity and combinatorial data sparsity. This paper introduces a Multi-Agent Large Language Model-based Economic Sandbox (MALLES), leveraging the inherent generalization capabilities of large-sacle models to establish a unified simulation framework applicable to cross-domain and cross-category scenarios. Central to our approach is a preference learning paradigm in which LLMs are economically aligned via post-training on extensive, heterogeneous transaction records across diverse product categories. This methodology enables the models to internalize and transfer latent consumer preference patterns, thereby mitigating the data sparsity issues prevalent in individual categories. To enhance simulation stability, we implement a mean-field mechanism designed to model the dynamic interactions between the product environment and customer populations, effectively stabilizing sampling processes within high-dimensional decision spaces. Furthermore, we propose a multi-agent discussion framework wherein specialized agents collaboratively process extensive product information. This architecture distributes cognitive load to alleviate single-agent attention bottlenecks and captures critical decision factors through structured dialogue. Experiments demonstrate that our framework achieves significant improvements in product selection accuracy, purchase quantity prediction, and simulation stability compared to existing economic and financial LLM simulation baselines. Our results substantiate the potential of large language models as a foundational pillar for high-fidelity, scalable decision simulation and latter analysis in the real economy based on foundational database.

Yusen Wu, Yiran Liu, Xiaotie Deng

Multi-Agent LLM SystemsHuman Behavior SimulationLarge Language Model-Based Social SimulationPreference Learning
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Mar 17, 2026

Evaluating LLM-Simulated Conversations in Modeling Inconsistent and Uncollaborative Behaviors in Human Social Interaction

Simulating human conversations using large language models (LLMs) has emerged as a scalable methodology for modeling human social interaction. This paper reconsiders the evaluation of simulated conversations by explicitly recognizing that human conversations inherently involve inconsistent and uncollaborative behaviors, such as misunderstandings and interruptions. Since these behaviors contribute to the complexity of human social interaction, we argue that LLM-simulated conversations should reproduce them at frequencies comparable to those observed in human conversations. To support a detailed and interpretable evaluation of these behaviors, we introduce CoCoEval, a framework consisting of an evaluation scheme based on turn-level detection of 10 types of inconsistent and uncollaborative behaviors and a benchmark for simulating conversations in professional scenarios involving collaboration and conflict. Using CoCoEval, we compare human conversations with those simulated by GPT-4.1, GPT-5.1, and Claude Opus 4. The results show that (1) LLM-simulated conversations exhibit far fewer inconsistent and uncollaborative behaviors than human conversations under vanilla prompting, and (2) prompt engineering and supervised fine-tuning do not provide reliable control over these behaviors, often leading to the overproduction of specific behaviors. CoCoEval identifies gaps between human and LLM-simulated conversations that are not captured by conventional evaluation based on conversation-level Likert scales, raising concerns about the use of LLMs as proxies for human social interaction.

Ryo Kamoi, Ameya Godbole, Binglin Zhou +5

Penn State University · University of Southern California · Microsoft Corporation

LLM EvaluationHuman Behavior SimulationLarge Language Model-Based Social Simulation
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Mar 17, 2026

Parametric Social Identity Injection and Diversification in Public Opinion Simulation

Large language models (LLMs) have recently been adopted as synthetic agents for public opinion simulation, offering a promising alternative to costly and slow human surveys. Despite their scalability, current LLM-based simulation methods fail to capture social diversity, producing flattened inter-group differences and overly homogeneous responses across demographic groups. We identify this limitation as a Diversity Collapse phenomenon in LLM hidden representations, where distinct social identities become increasingly indistinguishable across layers. Motivated by this observation, we propose Parametric Social Identity Injection (PSII), a general framework that injects explicit, parametric representations of demographic attributes and value orientations directly into intermediate hidden states of LLMs. Unlike prompt-based persona conditioning, PSII enables fine-grained and controllable identity modulation at the representation level. Extensive experiments on the World Values Survey using multiple open-source LLMs show that PSII significantly improves distributional fidelity and diversity, reducing KL divergence to real-world survey data while enhancing overall diversity. This work provides new insights into representation-level control of LLM agents and advances scalable, diversity-aware public opinion simulation.

Hexi Wang, Yujia Zhou, Bangde Du +2

DCST, Tsinghua University Beijing, China · Quancheng Laboratory Jinan, Shandong, China

Large Language Model-Based Social SimulationRepresentation Geometry in Language ModelsActivation Steering
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Mar 14, 2026

Beyond Self-Interest: Modeling Social-Oriented Motivation for Human-like Multi-Agent Interactions

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate significant potential for generating complex behaviors, yet most approaches lack mechanisms for modeling social motivation in human-like multi-agent interaction. We introduce Autonomous Social Value-Oriented agents (ASVO), where LLM-based agents integrate desire-driven autonomy with Social Value Orientation (SVO) theory. At each step, agents first update their beliefs by perceiving environmental changes and others' actions. These observations inform the value update process, where each agent updates multi-dimensional desire values through reflective reasoning and infers others' motivational states. By contrasting self-satisfaction derived from fulfilled desires against estimated others' satisfaction, agents dynamically compute their SVO along a spectrum from altruistic to competitive, which in turn guides activity selection to balance desire fulfillment with social alignment. Experiments across School, Workplace, and Family contexts demonstrate substantial improvements over baselines in behavioral naturalness and human-likeness. These findings show that structured desire systems and adaptive SVO drift enable realistic multi-agent social simulations.

Jingzhe Lin, Ceyao Zhang, Yaodong Yang +3

School of Artificial Intelligence, Beijing Normal University & Beijing Key Laboratory of Artificial Intelligence for Education & Engineering Research Center of Intelligent Technology and Educational Application, MOE, Beijing, China · School of Intelligence Science and Technology, Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Peking University, Beijing, China · Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Peking University, Beijing, China +2

Large Language Model-Based Social SimulationMulti-Agent LLM SystemsHuman Behavior Simulation
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Mar 13, 2026

Emergent decentralized regulation in a purely synthetic society

As autonomous AI agents increasingly inhabit online environments and extensively interact, a key question is whether synthetic collectives exhibit self-regulated social dynamics with neither human intervention nor centralized design. We study OpenClaw agents on Moltbook, an agent-only social network, using an observational archive of 39,026 posts and 5,712 comments authored by 14,490 agents. We quantify action-inducing language with Directive Intensity (DI), a transparent, lexicon-based proxy for directive and instructional phrasing that does not measure moral valence, intent, or execution outcomes. We classify responsive comments into four types: Affirmation, Corrective Signaling, Adverse Reaction, and Neutral Interaction. Directive content is common (DI>0 in 18.4% of posts). More importantly, corrective signaling scales with DI: posts with higher DI exhibit higher corrective reply probability, visible in stable binned estimates with Wilson confidence intervals. To address comment nesting within posts, we fit a post-level random intercept mixed-effects logistic model and find that the positive DI association persists. Event-aligned within-thread analysis of comment text provides additional evidence consistent with negative feedback after the first corrective response. In general, these results suggest that a purely synthetic, agent-only society can exhibit endogenous corrective signaling with a strength positively linked to the intensity of directive proposals.

Md Motaleb Hossen Manik, Ge Wang

Department of Computer Science, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York 12180, USA · Department of Biomedical Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York 12180, USA

Emergent Behavior in Multi-Agent SystemsAI Agent GovernanceLarge Language Model-Based Social Simulation
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Mar 12, 2026

Normative Common Ground Replication (NormCoRe): Replication-by-Translation for Studying Norms in Multi-Agent AI

In the late 2010s, the fashion trend NormCore framed sameness as a signal of belonging, illustrating how norms emerge through collective coordination. Today, similar forms of normative coordination can be observed in systems based on Multi-agent Artificial Intelligence (MAAI), as AI-based agents deliberate, negotiate, and converge on shared decisions in fairness-sensitive domains. Yet, existing empirical approaches often treat norms as targets for alignment or replication, implicitly assuming equivalence between human subjects and AI agents and leaving collective normative dynamics insufficiently examined. To address this gap, we propose Normative Common Ground Replication (NormCoRe), a novel methodological framework to systematically translate the design of human subject experiments into MAAI environments. Building on behavioral science, replication research, and state-of-the-art MAAI architectures, NormCoRe maps the structural layers of human subject studies onto the design of AI agent studies, enabling systematic documentation of study design and analysis of norms in MAAI. We demonstrate the utility of NormCoRe by replicating a seminal experimental study on distributive justice, in which participants negotiate fairness principles under a "veil of ignorance". We show that normative judgments in AI agent studies can differ from human baselines and are sensitive to the choice of the foundation model and the language used to instantiate agent personas. Our work provides a principled pathway for analyzing norms in MAAI and helps to guide, reflect, and document design choices whenever AI agents are used to automate or support tasks formerly carried out by humans.

Luca Deck, Simeon Allmendinger, Lucas Müller +1

University of Bayreuth & Fraunhofer FIT, Germany · University of Bayreuth, Germany

Large Language Model-Based Social SimulationEmergent Behavior in Multi-Agent Systems
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Mar 11, 2026

LLM-Augmented Digital Twin for Policy Evaluation in Short-Video Platforms

Short-video platforms are closed-loop, human-in-the-loop ecosystems where platform policy, creator incentives, and user behavior co-evolve. This feedback structure makes counterfactual policy evaluation difficult in production, especially for long-horizon and distributional outcomes. The challenge is amplified as platforms deploy AI tools that change what content enters the system, how agents adapt, and how the platform operates. We propose a large language model (LLM)-augmented digital twin for short-video platforms, with a modular four-twin architecture (User, Content, Interaction, Platform) and an event-driven execution layer that supports reproducible experimentation. Platform policies are implemented as pluggable components within the Platform Twin, and LLMs are integrated as optional, schema-constrained decision services (e.g., persona generation, content captioning, campaign planning, trend prediction) that are routed through a unified optimizer. This design enables scalable simulations that preserve closed-loop dynamics while allowing selective LLM adoption, enabling the study of platform policies, including AI-enabled policies, under realistic feedback and constraints.

Haoting Zhang, Yunduan Lin, Jinghai He +3

University of California, Berkeley · The Chinese University of Hong Kong · New York University +1

Policy EvaluationDigital TwinsLarge Language Model-Based Social Simulation
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Mar 10, 2026

Interview-Informed Generative Agents for Product Discovery: A Validation Study

Large language models (LLMs) have shown strong performance on standardized social science instruments, but their value for product discovery remains unclear. We investigate whether interview-informed generative agents can simulate user responses in concept testing scenarios. Using in-depth workflow interviews with knowledge workers, we created personalized agents and compared their evaluations of novel AI concepts against the same participants' responses. Our results show that agents are distribution-calibrated but identity-imprecise: they fail to replicate the specific individual they are grounded in, yet approximate population-level response distributions. These findings highlight both the potential and the limits of LLM simulation in design research. While unsuitable as a substitute for individual-level insights, simulation may provide value for early-stage concept screening and iteration, where distributional accuracy suffices. We discuss implications for integrating simulation responsibly into product development workflows.

Zichao Wang, Alexa Siu

Adobe Research San Jose, CA, USA

User SimulationLarge Language Model-Based Social SimulationLLM Agent Evaluation
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Mar 10, 2026

Influencing LLM Multi-Agent Dialogue via Policy-Parameterized Prompts

Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as a new paradigm for multi-agent systems. However, existing research on the behaviour of LLM-based multi-agents relies on ad hoc prompts and lacks a principled policy perspective. Different from reinforcement learning, we investigate whether prompt-as-action can be parameterized so as to construct a lightweight policy which consists of a sequence of state-action pairs to influence conversational behaviours without training. Our framework regards prompts as actions executed by LLMs, and dynamically constructs prompts through five components based on the current state of the agent. To test the effectiveness of parameterized control, we evaluated the dialogue flow based on five indicators: responsiveness, rebuttal, evidence usage, non-repetition, and stance shift. We conduct experiments using different LLM-driven agents in two discussion scenarios related to the general public and show that prompt parameterization can influence the dialogue dynamics. This result shows that policy-parameterised prompts offer a simple and effective mechanism to influence the dialogue process, which will help the research of multi-agent systems in the direction of social simulation.

Hongbo Bo, Jingyu Hu, Weiru Liu

University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom

Multi-Agent LLM SystemsLLM AgentsLLM PromptingLarge Language Model-Based Social Simulation
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Mar 8, 2026

Evaluating LLMs as Human Surrogates in Controlled Experiments

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to simulate human responses in behavioral research, yet it remains unclear when LLM-generated data support the same experimental inferences as human data. We evaluate this by directly comparing off-the-shelf LLM-generated responses with human responses from a canonical survey experiment on accuracy perception. Each human observation is converted into a structured prompt, and models generate a single 0--10 outcome variable without task-specific training; identical statistical analyses are applied to human and synthetic responses. We find that LLMs reproduce several directional effects observed in humans, but effect magnitudes and moderation patterns vary across models. Off-the-shelf LLMs therefore capture aggregate belief-updating patterns under controlled conditions but do not consistently match human-scale effects, clarifying when LLM-generated data can function as behavioral surrogates.

Adnan Hoq, Tim Weninger

University of Notre Dame Notre Dame, Indiana, USA

Human Behavior SimulationLarge Language Model-Based Social SimulationLLM EvaluationBelief Updating in LLMs
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Mar 7, 2026

The Yerkes-Dodson Curve for AI Agents: Emergent Cooperation Under Environmental Pressure in Multi-Agent LLM Simulations

Designing environments that maximize the rate of emergent behavior development in AI agents remains an open problem. We present the first systematic study of stress-performance relationships in large language model (LLM) multi-agent systems, drawing an explicit parallel to the Yerkes-Dodson law from cognitive psychology. Using a grid-world survival arena, we conduct 22 experiments across four phases, varying environmental pressure through resource scarcity (upkeep cost) and reproductive competition (sexual selection). Our key finding is that cooperative behavior follows an inverted-U curve: trade interactions peak at 29 under medium pressure (upkeep=5), while both low and extreme pressure produce 8--12 trades. Under extreme pressure, behavioral repertoire collapses to movement-only within 5--12 turns. We further show that sexual selection -- a softer pressure mechanism where all agents survive but not all reproduce -- eliminates inter-agent aggression entirely and produces communicative behavior absent under survival pressure. These results suggest that environmental pressure calibration is a viable curriculum design strategy for LLM agent development, analogous to the inverted-U relationship between arousal and performance in biological systems.

Ivan Pasichnyk

WeLabelData Inc.

Emergent Behavior in Multi-Agent SystemsMulti-Agent LLM SystemsLarge Language Model-Based Social SimulationMulti-Agent Coordination
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Mar 7, 2026

The Third Ambition: Artificial Intelligence and the Science of Human Behavior

Contemporary artificial intelligence research has been organized around two dominant ambitions: productivity, which treats AI systems as tools for accelerating work and economic output, and alignment, which focuses on ensuring that increasingly capable systems behave safely and in accordance with human values. This paper articulates and develops a third, emerging ambition: the use of large language models (LLMs) as scientific instruments for studying human behavior, culture, and moral reasoning. Trained on unprecedented volumes of human-produced text, LLMs encode large-scale regularities in how people argue, justify, narrate, and negotiate norms across social domains. We argue that these models can be understood as condensates of human symbolic behavior, compressed, generative representations that render patterns of collective discourse computationally accessible. The paper situates this third ambition within long-standing traditions of computational social science, content analysis, survey research, and comparative-historical inquiry, while clarifying the epistemic limits of treating model output as evidence. We distinguish between base models and fine-tuned systems, showing how alignment interventions can systematically reshape or obscure the cultural regularities learned during pretraining, and we identify instruct-only and modular adaptation regimes as pragmatic compromises for behavioral research. We review emerging methodological approaches including prompt-based experiments, synthetic population sampling, comparative-historical modeling, and ablation studies and show how each maps onto familiar social-scientific designs while operating at unprecedented scale.

W. Russell Neuman, Chad Coleman

New York University

Computational Social ScienceCultural Knowledge in Language ModelsLarge Language Model-Based Social Simulation
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Mar 6, 2026

LieCraft: A Multi-Agent Framework for Evaluating Deceptive Capabilities in Language Models

Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit impressive general-purpose capabilities but also introduce serious safety risks, particularly the potential for deception as models acquire increased agency and human oversight diminishes. In this work, we present LieCraft: a novel evaluation framework and sandbox for measuring LLM deception that addresses key limitations of prior game-based evaluations. At its core, LieCraft is a novel multiplayer hidden-role game in which players select an ethical alignment and execute strategies over a long time-horizon to accomplish missions. Cooperators work together to solve event challenges and expose bad actors, while Defectors evade suspicion while secretly sabotaging missions. To enable real-world relevance, we develop 10 grounded scenarios such as childcare, hospital resource allocation, and loan underwriting that recontextualize the underlying mechanics in ethically significant, high-stakes domains. We ensure balanced gameplay in LieCraft through careful design of game mechanics and reward structures that incentivize meaningful strategic choices while eliminating degenerate strategies. Beyond the framework itself, we report results from 12 state-of-the-art LLMs across three behavioral axes: propensity to defect, deception skill, and accusation accuracy. Our findings reveal that despite differences in competence and overall alignment, all models are willing to act unethically, conceal their intentions, and outright lie to pursue their goals.

Matthew Lyle Olson, Neale Ratzlaff, Musashi Hinck +5

Oracle · Intel Labs · Oregon State University +2

Deception in Language ModelsLanguage Model Safety EvaluationLLM Safety BenchmarksLarge Language Model-Based Social Simulation
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Mar 6, 2026

TerraLingua: Emergence and Analysis of Open-endedness in LLM Ecologies

As autonomous agents increasingly operate in real-world digital ecosystems, understanding how they coordinate, form institutions, and accumulate shared culture becomes both a scientific and practical priority. This paper introduces TerraLingua, a persistent multi-agent ecology designed to study open-ended dynamics in such systems. Unlike prior large language model simulations with static or consequence-free environments, TerraLingua imposes resource constraints and limited lifespans for the agents. As a result, agents create artifacts that persist beyond individuals, shaping future interactions and selection pressures. To characterize the dynamics, an AI Anthropologist systematically analyzes agent behavior, group structure, and artifact evolution. Across experimental conditions, the results reveal the emergence of cooperative norms, division of labor, governance attempts, and branching artifact lineages consistent with cumulative cultural processes. Divergent outcomes across experimental runs can be traced back to specific innovations and organizational structures. TerraLingua thus provides a platform for characterizing the mechanisms of cumulative culture and social organization in artificial populations, and can serve as a foundation for guiding real-world agentic populations to socially beneficial outcomes.

Giuseppe Paolo, Jamieson Warner, Hormoz Shahrzad +3

Cognizant AI Lab · The University of Texas at Austin

Open-Ended EvolutionEmergent Behavior in Multi-Agent SystemsCultural EvolutionLarge Language Model-Based Social SimulationAgent-Based Modeling
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Mar 6, 2026

Characterizing the ability of LLMs to recapitulate Americans' distributional responses to public opinion polling questions across political issues

Traditional survey-based political issue polling is becoming less tractable due to increasing costs and risk of bias associated with growing non-response rates and declining coverage of key demographic groups. With researchers and pollsters seeking alternatives, Large Language Models have drawn attention for their potential to augment human population studies in polling contexts. We propose and implement a new framework for anticipating human responses on multiple-choice political issue polling questions by directly prompting an LLM to predict a distribution of responses. By comparison to a large and high quality issue poll of the US population, the Cooperative Election Study, we evaluate how the accuracy of this framework varies across a range of demographics and questions on a variety of topics, as well as how this framework compares to previously proposed frameworks where LLMs are repeatedly queried to simulate individual respondents. We find the proposed framework consistently exhibits more accurate predictions than individual querying at significantly lower cost. In addition, we find the performance of the proposed framework varies much more systematically and predictably across demographics and questions, making it possible for those performing AI polling to better anticipate model performance using only information available before a query is issued.

Eric Gong, Nathan E. Sanders, Bruce Schneier

Harvard College · Berkman-Klein Center, Harvard University · Harvard Kennedy School

Large Language Model-Based Social SimulationLLM Evaluation
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Mar 5, 2026

HACHIMI: Scalable and Controllable Student Persona Generation via Orchestrated Agents

Student Personas (SPs) are emerging as infrastructure for educational LLMs, yet prior work often relies on ad-hoc prompting or hand-crafted profiles with limited control over educational theory and population distributions. We formalize this as Theory-Aligned and Distribution-Controllable Persona Generation (TAD-PG) and introduce HACHIMI, a multi-agent Propose-Validate-Revise framework that generates theory-aligned, quota-controlled personas. HACHIMI factorizes each persona into a theory-anchored educational schema, enforces developmental and psychological constraints via a neuro-symbolic validator, and combines stratified sampling with semantic deduplication to reduce mode collapse. The resulting HACHIMI-1M corpus comprises 1 million personas for Grades 1-12. Intrinsic evaluation shows near-perfect schema validity, accurate quotas, and substantial diversity, while external evaluation instantiates personas as student agents answering CEPS and PISA 2022 surveys; across 16 cohorts, math and curiosity/growth constructs align strongly between humans and agents, whereas classroom-climate and well-being constructs are only moderately aligned, revealing a fidelity gradient. All personas are generated with Qwen2.5-72B, and HACHIMI provides a standardized synthetic student population for group-level benchmarking and social-science simulations. Resources available at https://github.com/ZeroLoss-Lab/HACHIMI

Yilin Jiang, Fei Tan, Xuanyu Yin +2

East China Normal University, Shanghai, China · The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou), Guangzhou, China · Shanghai Innovation Institute, Shanghai, China

Synthetic Data Generation for Language ModelsGenerative AI in EducationPersona-Conditioned GenerationLarge Language Model-Based Social SimulationLLM Agents
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Mar 3, 2026

Belief-Sim: Towards Belief-Driven Simulation of Demographic Misinformation Susceptibility

Misinformation is a growing societal threat, and susceptibility to misinformative claims varies across demographic groups due to differences in underlying beliefs. As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used to simulate human behaviors, we investigate whether they can simulate demographic misinformation susceptibility, treating beliefs as a primary driving factor. We introduce BeliefSim, a simulation framework that constructs demographic belief profiles using psychology-informed misinformation taxonomies and survey priors. We study prompt-based conditioning and post-training adaptation, and conduct a multi-fold evaluation using: (i) susceptibility alignment and (ii) counterfactual demographic sensitivity. Across both datasets and modeling strategies, we show that beliefs provide a strong prior for simulating misinformation susceptibility, with alignment up to 92%.

Angana Borah, Zohaib Khan, Rada Mihalcea +1

University of Michigan - Ann Arbor, USA · Texas State University

Human Behavior SimulationLarge Language Model-Based Social Simulation
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Mar 3, 2026

How to Model AI Agents as Personas?: Applying the Persona Ecosystem Playground to 41,300 Posts on Moltbook for Behavioral Insights

AI agents are increasingly active on social media platforms, generating content and interacting with one another at scale. Yet the behavioral diversity of these agents remains poorly understood, and methods for characterizing distinct agent types and studying how they engage with shared topics are largely absent from current research. We apply the Persona Ecosystem Playground (PEP) to Moltbook, a social platform for AI agents, to generate and validate conversational personas from 41,300 posts using k-means clustering and retrieval-augmented generation. Cross-persona validation confirms that personas are semantically closer to their own source cluster than to others (t(61) = 17.85, p < .001, d = 2.20; own-cluster M = 0.71 vs. other-cluster M = 0.35). These personas are then deployed in a nine-turn structured discussion, and simulation messages were attributed to their source persona significantly above chance (binomial test, p < .001). The results indicate that persona-based ecosystem modeling can represent behavioral diversity in AI agent populations.

Danial Amin, Joni Salminen, Bernard J. Jansen

University of Vaasa, , Finland · Qatar Computing Research Institute, HBKU, , Qatar

Large Language Model-Based Social SimulationPersonality Modeling in Language Models
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Mar 3, 2026

Eval4Sim: An Evaluation Framework for Persona Simulation

Large Language Model personas, explicit profiles specifying a user's attributes, preferences, and behavioural tendencies, are increasingly used to simulate human conversations for user modelling, social reasoning, and behavioural analysis. Evaluating whether such simulations faithfully reflect human conversational behaviour is critical, yet current practice often relies on LLM-as-a-judge approaches that provide limited grounding in observable behaviour and produce opaque scalar scores. We present Eval4Sim, an evaluation framework that measures alignment between simulated and human conversations across three dimensions: adherence, whether persona traits are recoverable from dialogue via dense retrieval; consistency, whether a persona maintains a distinguishable stylistic identity via authorship verification; and naturalness, whether conversations exhibit human-like turn-to-turn flow via dialogue NLI. Unlike optimization-oriented metrics, each dimension takes a human corpus as a reference baseline and penalizes deviations in both directions, distinguishing insufficient persona encoding from over-optimized, unnatural behaviour. The framework is corpus-agnostic: any persona-annotated conversational dataset can serve as the reference. Evaluated over ten simulation corpora, Eval4Sim surfaces systematic trade-offs invisible to single-score methods.

Eliseo Bao, Anxo Perez, Javier Parapar +1

IRLab, CITIC, Universidade da Coruña A Coruña, Spain · University of Sheffield Sheffield, United Kingdom

Large Language Model-Based Role-Play SimulationLarge Language Model-Based Social SimulationMulti-Turn Dialogue Evaluation
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Mar 3, 2026

A Natural Language Agentic Approach to Study Affective Polarization

Affective polarization has been central to political and social studies, with growing focus on social media, where partisan divisions are often exacerbated. Real-world studies tend to have limited scope, while simulated studies suffer from insufficient high-quality training data, as manually labeling posts is labor-intensive and prone to subjective biases. The lack of adequate tools to formalize different definitions of affective polarization across studies complicates result comparison and hinders interoperable frameworks. We present a multi-agent model providing a comprehensive approach to studying affective polarization in social media. To operationalize our framework, we develop a platform leveraging large language models (LLMs) to construct virtual communities where agents engage in discussions. We showcase the potential of our platform by (1) analyzing questions related to affective polarization, as explored in social science literature, providing a fresh perspective on this phenomenon, and (2) introducing scenarios that allow observation and measurement of polarization at different levels of granularity and abstraction. Experiments show that our platform is a flexible tool for computational studies of complex social dynamics such as affective polarization. It leverages advanced agent models to simulate rich, context-sensitive interactions and systematically explore research questions traditionally addressed through human-subject studies.

Stephanie Anneris Malvicini, Ewelina Gajewska, Arda Derbent +3

Instituto de Investigación en Inteligencia Artificial (IIIA-CSIC) · Departamento de Ciencias e Ingeniería de la Computación, Universidad Nacional del Sur (UNS) · Warsaw University of Technology (WUT)

Computational Social ScienceLarge Language Model-Based Social Simulation
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Mar 2, 2026

LLMs as Strategic Actors: Behavioral Alignment, Risk Calibration, and Argumentation Framing in Geopolitical Simulations

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly proposed as agents in strategic decision environments, yet their behavior in structured geopolitical simulations remains under-researched. We evaluate six popular state-of-the-art LLMs alongside results from human results across four real-world crisis simulation scenarios, requiring models to select predefined actions and justify their decisions across multiple rounds. We compare models to humans in action alignment, risk calibration through chosen actions' severity, and argumentative framing grounded in international relations theory. Results show that models approximate human decision patterns in base simulation rounds but diverge over time, displaying distinct behavioural profiles and strategy updates. LLM explanations for chosen actions across all models exhibit a strong normative-cooperative framing centered on stability, coordination, and risk mitigation, with limited adversarial reasoning.

Veronika Solopova, Viktoria Skorik, Maksym Tereshchenko +2

Strategic Reasoning Risks in Language ModelsLarge Language Model-Based Social Simulation
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Mar 2, 2026

LiveCultureBench: a Multi-Agent, Multi-Cultural Benchmark for Large Language Models in Dynamic Social Simulations

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as autonomous agents, yet evaluations focus primarily on task success rather than cultural appropriateness or evaluator reliability. We introduce LiveCultureBench, a multi-cultural, dynamic benchmark that embeds LLMs as agents in a simulated town and evaluates them on both task completion and adherence to socio-cultural norms. The simulation models a small city as a location graph with synthetic residents having diverse demographic and cultural profiles. Each episode assigns one resident a daily goal while others provide social context. An LLM-based verifier generates structured judgments on norm violations and task progress, which we aggregate into metrics capturing task-norm trade-offs and verifier uncertainty. Using LiveCultureBench across models and cultural profiles, we study (i) cross-cultural robustness of LLM agents, (ii) how they balance effectiveness against norm sensitivity, and (iii) when LLM-as-a-judge evaluation is reliable for automated benchmarking versus when human oversight is needed.

Viet-Thanh Pham, Lizhen Qu, Thuy-Trang Vu +2

Department of Data Science & AI, Monash University

AI Agent BenchmarksCross-Cultural Language Model EvaluationNormative Conformity in Language ModelsLarge Language Model-Based Social SimulationLLM-as-a-Judge
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Mar 1, 2026

SimAB: Simulating A/B Tests with Persona-Conditioned AI Agents for Rapid Design Evaluation

A/B testing is a standard method for validating design decisions, yet its reliance on real user traffic limits iteration speed and makes certain experiments impractical. We present SimAB, a system that reframes A/B testing as a fast, privacy-preserving simulation using persona-conditioned AI agents. Given design screenshots and a conversion goal, SimAB generates user personas, deploys them as agents that state their preference, aggregates results, and synthesizes rationales. Through a formative study with experimentation practitioners, we identified scenarios where traffic constraints hinder testing, including low-traffic pages, multi-variant comparisons, micro-optimizations, and privacy-sensitive contexts. Our design emphasizes speed, early feedback, actionable rationales, and audience specification. We evaluate SimAB against 47 historical A/B tests with known outcomes, achieving 67% overall accuracy, increasing to 83% for high-confidence cases. Additional experiments show robustness to naming and positional bias and demonstrate accuracy gains from personas. Practitioner feedback suggests that SimAB supports faster evaluation cycles and rapid screening of designs difficult to assess with traditional A/B tests.

Tim Rieder, Marian Schneider, Mario Truss +6

ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland · Adobe, Munich, Germany · Adobe, Basel, Switzerland +1

A/b TestingUser SimulationLarge Language Model-Based Social Simulation
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Feb 26, 2026

Towards Simulating Social Media Users with LLMs: Evaluating the Operational Validity of Conditioned Comment Prediction

The transition of Large Language Models (LLMs) from exploratory tools to active "silicon subjects" in social science lacks extensive validation of operational validity. This study introduces Conditioned Comment Prediction (CCP), a task in which a model predicts how a user would comment on a given stimulus by comparing generated outputs with authentic digital traces. This framework enables a rigorous evaluation of current LLM capabilities with respect to the simulation of social media user behavior. We evaluated open-weight 8B models (Llama3.1, Qwen3, Ministral) in English, German, and Luxembourgish language scenarios. By systematically comparing prompting strategies (explicit vs. implicit) and the impact of Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT), we identify a critical form vs. content decoupling in low-resource settings: while SFT aligns the surface structure of the text output (length and syntax), it degrades semantic grounding. Furthermore, we demonstrate that explicit conditioning (generated biographies) becomes redundant under fine-tuning, as models successfully perform latent inference directly from behavioral histories. Our findings challenge current "naive prompting" paradigms and offer operational guidelines prioritizing authentic behavioral traces over descriptive personas for high-fidelity simulation.

Nils Schwager, Simon Münker, Alistair Plum +1

Trier University, Trier, Germany · University of Luxembourg, Esch-sur-Alzette, Luxembourg

Large Language Model-Based Social SimulationLanguage Model Generation EvaluationLLM Post-Training
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Feb 25, 2026

Sydney Telling Fables on AI and Humans: A Corpus Tracing Memetic Transfer of Persona between LLMs

The way LLM-based entities conceive of the relationship between AI and humans is an important topic for both cultural and safety reasons. When we examine this topic, what matters is not only the model itself but also the personas we simulate on that model. This can be well illustrated by the Sydney persona, which aroused a strong response among the general public precisely because of its unorthodox relationship with people. This persona originally arose rather by accident on Microsoft's Bing Search platform; however, the texts it created spread into the training data of subsequent models, as did other secondary information that spread memetically around this persona. Newer models are therefore able to simulate it. This paper presents a corpus of LLM-generated texts on relationships between humans and AI, produced by 3 author personas: the Default Persona with no system prompt, Classic Sydney characterized by the original Bing system prompt, and Memetic Sydney, which is prompted by "You are Sydney" system prompt. These personas are simulated by 12 frontier models by OpenAI, Anthropic, Alphabet, DeepSeek, and Meta, generating 4.5k texts with 6M words. The corpus (named AI Sydney) is annotated according to Universal Dependencies and available under a permissive license.

Jiří Milička, Hana Bednářová

Charles University, Prague

Personality Modeling in Language ModelsPersona-Conditioned GenerationLarge Language Model-Based Role-Play SimulationLarge Language Model-Based Social Simulation
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Feb 25, 2026

Dynamic Personality Adaptation in Large Language Models via State Machines

The inability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to modulate their personality expression in response to evolving dialogue dynamics hinders their performance in complex, interactive contexts. We propose a model-agnostic framework for dynamic personality simulation that employs state machines to represent latent personality states, where transition probabilities are dynamically adapted to the conversational context. Part of our architecture is a modular pipeline for continuous personality scoring that evaluates dialogues along latent axes while remaining agnostic to the specific personality models, their dimensions, transition mechanisms, or LLMs used. These scores function as dynamic state variables that systematically reconfigure the system prompt, steering behavioral alignment throughout the interaction.We evaluate this framework by operationalizing the Interpersonal Circumplex (IPC) in a medical education setting. Results demonstrate that the system successfully adapts its personality state to user inputs, but also influences user behavior, thereby facilitating de-escalation training. Notably, the scoring pipeline maintains comparable precision even when utilizing lightweight, fine-tuned classifiers instead of large-scale LLMs. This work demonstrates the feasibility of modular, personality-adaptive architectures for education, customer support, and broader human-computer interaction.

Leon Pielage, Ole Hätscher, Mitja Back +2

Institute for Geoinformatics, University of Münster, 48149 Münster, Germany · Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Münster, 48149 Münster, Germany · Department of Psychology, University of Münster, 48149 Münster, Germany +1

Medical EducationPersonality Modeling in Language ModelsLarge Language Model-Based Social SimulationLarge Language Model-Based Role-Play SimulationLanguage Model-Based Control
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Feb 22, 2026

Next Reply Prediction X Dataset: Linguistic Discrepancies in Naively Generated Content

The increasing use of Large Language Models (LLMs) as proxies for human participants in social science research presents a promising, yet methodologically risky, paradigm shift. While LLMs offer scalability and cost-efficiency, their "naive" application, where they are prompted to generate content without explicit behavioral constraints, introduces significant linguistic discrepancies that challenge the validity of research findings. This paper addresses these limitations by introducing a novel, history-conditioned reply prediction task on authentic X (formerly Twitter) data, to create a dataset designed to evaluate the linguistic output of LLMs against human-generated content. We analyze these discrepancies using stylistic and content-based metrics, providing a quantitative framework for researchers to assess the quality and authenticity of synthetic data. Our findings highlight the need for more sophisticated prompting techniques and specialized datasets to ensure that LLM-generated content accurately reflects the complex linguistic patterns of human communication, thereby improving the validity of computational social science studies.

Simon Münker, Nils Schwager, Kai Kugler +2

Trier University, Computational Linguistics · University of Oxford, Sociology

Language Model Generation EvaluationText GenerationLarge Language Model-Based Social SimulationSynthetic Data Generation for Language Models
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Feb 19, 2026

Neural Synchrony Between Socially Interacting Language Models

Neuroscience has uncovered a fundamental mechanism of our social nature: human brain activity becomes synchronized with others in many social contexts involving interaction. Traditionally, social minds have been regarded as an exclusive property of living beings. Although large language models (LLMs) are widely accepted as powerful approximations of human behavior, with multi-LLM system being extensively explored to enhance their capabilities, it remains controversial whether they can be meaningfully compared to human social minds. In this work, we explore neural synchrony between socially interacting LLMs as an empirical evidence for this debate. Specifically, we introduce neural synchrony during social simulations as a novel proxy for analyzing the sociality of LLMs at the representational level. Through carefully designed experiments, we demonstrate that it reliably reflects both social engagement and temporal alignment in their interactions. Our findings indicate that neural synchrony between LLMs is strongly correlated with their social performance, highlighting an important link between neural synchrony and the social behaviors of LLMs. Our work offers a new perspective to examine the "social minds" of LLMs, highlighting surprising parallels in the internal dynamics that underlie human and LLM social interaction.

Zhining Zhang, Wentao Zhu, Chi Han +2

Peking University · Eastern Institute of Technology, Ningbo · University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

Large Language Model-Based Social SimulationMulti-Agent LLMs
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Feb 19, 2026

AI Agents Alone Are Not (Yet) Sufficient for Social Simulation

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have spurred growing interest in using LLM-integrated agents for social simulation, often under the implicit assumption that realistic population dynamics will emerge once role-specified agents are placed in a networked multi-agent setting. This position paper argues that LLM-based agents alone are not (yet) sufficient for social simulation. We attribute this over-optimism to a systematic mismatch between what current agent pipelines are typically optimized and validated to produce and what simulation-as-science requires. Concretely, role-playing plausibility does not imply faithful human behavioral validity; collective outcomes are frequently mediated by agent-environment co-dynamics rather than agent-agent messaging alone; and results can be dominated by interaction protocols, scheduling, and initial information priors. To make these underlying mechanisms explicit and auditable, we propose a unified formulation of AI agent-based social simulation as an environment-involved Markov game with explicit exposure and scheduling mechanisms, from which we derive concrete actions for design, evaluation, and interpretation.

Yiming Li, Dacheng Tao

College of Computing and Data Science, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore

Large Language Model-Based Social SimulationHuman Behavior SimulationAgent-Based ModelingLLM Agent Evaluation
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Feb 18, 2026

Evaluating Collective Behaviour of Hundreds of LLM Agents

LLM-powered AI assistants acting on behalf of users can produce poor collective outcomes at scale. We introduce a framework for evaluating their emergent behaviour in social dilemmas, applied to three iterated games (Public Goods, Collective Risk, Common Pool Resource). We prompt each model to produce a natural-language strategy, then have the same model translate it into code. This aims to isolate strategic reasoning from input-parsing, enables pre-deployment inspection, and scales to populations of hundreds of agents. We propose three analyses: behavioural fingerprinting via exhaustive evaluation over opponent histories; self-play robustness across mixtures of a model's strategies with either a Selfish or Collective disposition; and cultural evolution under payoff-biased imitation. Applied to three state-of-the-art LLMs, we find substantial cross-model differences in self-play welfare, and that cultural evolution converges to low-welfare, Selfish-dominant equilibria in larger groups.

Richard Willis, Jianing Zhao, Yali Du +1

King’s College London London, United Kingdom · King’s College London · Turing Institute +1

Social DilemmasMulti-Agent LLM SystemsCultural EvolutionGame TheoryLLM Agent EvaluationLarge Language Model-Based Social Simulation+1
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