LLM Abstention

LLM: Large Language Model

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11 papers in the last four weeks, up 120% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

Jul 13Week of Sep 28

Latest papers 61

Oct 7, 2026stat.ML

Certified by Abstention: Distribution-Free Guarantees for Chain-of-Thought Verifiers at Small Calibration Budgets

Signals that predict whether a chain-of-thought (CoT) trace is correct are compared by AUC, but deploying one requires a threshold with a guarantee. We ask what distribution-free selective guarantees deliver for CoT verifiers at realistic calibration budgets of tens to a few hundred labelled problems, using seven open models, five verifier signals and 37,000 graded traces. The central observation is validity by abstention: an (α,δ)(α,δ)-valid procedure that issues a certificate with probability PfireP_{\rm fire} bounds the failure probability of an issued certificate only by δ/Pfireδ/P_{\rm fire}, so a certificate that rarely fires can be valid and wrong every time it is used. In a simulation with known risk the standard certificate fails in at most 0.3% of calibration draws but in up to 69% of those in which it fires. A certification floor and a lattice condition for Benjamini-Hochberg conformal selection explain why certificates abstain at these budgets, and the data bear them out: the standard certificate returns nothing or a large accepted set, and an unreadable residual-stream probe buys two to three times the coverage of the readable signals, an edge a cross-fitted reconstruction cannot recover linearly from the readable features. We then give a floor-started fixed-sequence certificate, valid without monotonicity assumptions, that covers more than the Bonferroni certificate on every model-signal pair and raises coverage at the non-vacuous target 0.75π00.75π_0 from 0.05 to 0.16, although the floor keeps absolute coverage small. Finally, a certificate cannot see what matters after deployment: under benchmark shift the error among accepted traces tracks the new task's base error, and under best-of-nn selection against the verifier it rises past the target while the empirical failure frequency stays below δδ, because abstention absorbs the failures.
Oct 7, 2026cs.CL

Arctic Questions, Missing Answers: A Dataset and Benchmark for LLM Abstention in Arctic Science

Large language models (LLMs) should abstain from scientific multiple-choice questions when no option is valid, but frequent abstention alone does not demonstrate sensitivity to answer availability. We introduce ArcticQA, a dataset of 194 questions derived from primary Arctic research, with automated checks of answer support and distractor contradiction against source evidence. We further develop ArcticAbstain, a paired benchmark comparing answer-present and answer-absent conditions, with the correct answer replaced by a distractor in the latter and an explicit abstention option in both. We evaluate eight models from the Gemini, Claude, and ChatGPT families at high reasoning effort, with three trials per condition, yielding 9,312 recorded responses. Answer-present abstention rates range from 0.0% to 63.0%, whereas replacing the correct answer increases abstention by 5.05 percentage points on average. These findings highlight substantial baseline differences and the need to evaluate abstention frequency and responsiveness jointly. The dataset and benchmark are available at https://github.com/BenWilcox8/arctic-qa.
Oct 6, 2026cs.CL

Knowing When Not to Answer: Cross-Domain and Multi-Turn Generalization of Latent Underspecification Signals

Large language models routinely answer questions that cannot be answered from the information given, and in dialogue they answer before enough has been said. Unanswerability is linearly decodable from hidden states, but it is unclear which of its forms share a representation and whether the signal is useful in dialogue. We contribute a turn-labeled multi-turn benchmark (423 conversations, 1,661 labeled turn-states) and an evaluation harness with a simulated user who answers clarifying questions, and use them with six datasets and six open-weight LLMs to test how far probes for unanswerability carry. Probes transfer robustly between datasets that share a ground of unanswerability: missing information in math (AUROC 0.77-0.97) and in a passage (SQuAD 2.0<->MuSiQue, 0.77-0.90). Probes for epistemic "known-unknowns" transfer poorly to math, but this separation weakens under lexical controls and changes with layer and coordinate system, so it remains unresolved. Single-turn probes fail zero-shot to detect when a conversation becomes answerable; in-structure probes recover it, but no better than a bag-of-words classifier. A gate on the calibrated probe, with no model fine-tuning, fires on underspecified turns far more precisely than chance, and its end-task success comes within 0.08 of a gate given the true labels. Yet across four models it does not reliably beat vanilla generation or prompted consolidation. The remaining gap lies mostly in how models use a clarification, not in detection.
Oct 6, 2026cs.CL

Penalty-Framed No-Valid-Option MCQA: Analyzing LLM Abstention under Invalid Choices

Multiple-choice question answering (MCQA) is commonly used to evaluate large language models under the assumption that one of the provided options is correct, typically using answer-selection accuracy. However, in real deployments, users or retrieval systems may provide invalid option sets in which none of the listed choices is correct, and selecting one of them may incur downstream cost. We study this setting as penalty-framed no-valid-option MCQA. Using the mathematics subset of MMLU-Pro, we remove the labeled correct option, allow models to either choose a remaining option or output ABSTAIN, and penalize invalid forced-choice responses. We further introduce correct-conditioned analysis, evaluating abstention only on instances that the model originally answered correctly. Experiments show that high MCQA accuracy does not fully guarantee abstention reliability: even under explicit no-valid-option-aware instructions and penalty-based scoring, models still produce invalid forced-choice responses for a subset of originally correct instances. These results show that penalty-framed no-valid-option MCQA reveals an aspect of model reliability not captured by standard answer-selection accuracy.
Oct 6, 2026cs.CL

Rethinking Faithfulness in LLMs: A Pairwise Context-Sensitive Perspective

Large language models (LLMs) are expected to answer questions faithfully based on the provided context, abstaining when the context information is insufficient to answer the questions. Existing faithfulness evaluations typically assess each question-context instance in isolation; however, such instance-level evaluation fails to capture a fundamental requirement of faithful behavior: the ability to adapt model responses to changes in available contexts. In particular, a model should provide correct answers when sufficient evidence is present and abstain when it is not. In this work, we propose a Pairwise Faithfulness Benchmark (PFaithBench) that evaluates whether a model can switch between answering and abstaining for the same question under supporting versus non-supporting contexts. Our evaluations across thirty-nine models with seven model families demonstrate that faithfulness fundamentally involves a trade-off between answering and abstaining, and that most current models exhibit a strong bias toward answering, with most faithfulness errors arising from over-answering, i.e., models tend to fabricate a response even when the provided context is insufficient. We further conduct a series of studies on faithfulness training under different data constructions. Our results show that training outcomes are highly sensitive to the specific composition of answering and abstaining data. Constructing answering and abstaining data from mismatched sources can cause models to rely on dataset-specific shortcuts rather than actual context sufficiency. Moreover, increasing answer-supervised data improves answering performance but exacerbates over-answering, while increasing abstaining data reduces hallucination but leads to over-abstention. The code and data are released at https://github.com/tmlr-group/PFaithBench.
Oct 3, 2026cs.AI

Decide, Ask, or Defer: Clinical LLMs under Incomplete Evidence

Clinical LLMs must decide not only what diagnosis to produce, but also whether the available evidence is sufficient for autonomous decision making. Binary DECIDE/ABSTAIN formulations merge distinct non decision states and do not explicitly evaluate information acquisition. We introduce a DECIDE/ASK/DEFER formulation together with a blinded protocol that prevents models from using evidence completeness metadata. We evaluate Qwen, Gemini, and GPT on 200 matched clinical evidence states constructed from DDXPlus. The models show substantial differences in action selection under identical evidence, with disagreement in 137 of 200 states. For Qwen, a matched targeted versus random analysis shows that selected information changes the likelihood of a subsequent autonomous decision more clearly than diagnostic correctness. Its matched DECIDE/ABSTAIN baseline further reveals a safety autonomy tradeoff: the three action policy rescues some erroneous autonomous decisions but also removes some correct autonomous deci sions. These results show that separating information acquisition from clinician deferral exposes behavior that binary abstention hides, without yielding a uniformly improved decision policy.
Oct 1, 2026cs.CL

A Citation-Grounded Benchmark for Trustworthy Earnings Call Transcript Analysis with Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) have been increasingly used for financial document analysis, including earnings call transcripts (ECTs). Beyond generating standalone claims, users increasingly prefer grounded analyses that pair claims with verifiable citations from source documents to enable independent validation. However, evaluating such analytical claims typically requires extensive expert annotation, which is costly and difficult to scale, and real-world financial analysis commonly involves long context-question-answer triplets, further increasing task complexity. To address these challenges and benchmark the current landscape of grounded analysis by LLMs, we propose a numeric evidence evaluation method that enables groundedness assessment without reliance on expert annotation. We also introduce an automated dataset construction pipeline and construct ECTs-100 from the top 100 constituents of the S&P 500 to support benchmark of both groundedness and correctness. In addition, we examine conscious incompetence, a practical failure mode in financial analysis in which LLMs must detect when available evidence is insufficient and refrain from producing unsupported hallucinations. Empirical results show that LLMs perform well in groundedness but face notable limitations in correctness, with informational insufficiency presenting an additional challenge.
Sep 30, 2026cs.LG

When the Right Answer Is Missing: An Arithmetic-Dependent Rejection Bottleneck in Jev

Typed decision models such as Jev offer an efficient alternative to generative LLMs in decision-making workflows by selecting directly from predefined options. When candidate sets contain no valid answer, TypeSafe recommends including an "other" or "none-of-the-above" option to enable rejection. In this report, however, we identify an arithmetic-dependent rejection bottleneck: Jev reliably selects correct numerical answers when available but frequently accepts incorrect alternatives when they are absent despite an explicit rejection option. On paired arithmetic problems, answer-present accuracy reaches 99%, while correct rejection falls to 7%. Moreover, this gap persists across numerical magnitudes, operation depths, contextual formulations, and rejection labels, and extends to scenarios such as time calculation and capacity rounding. Yet native Boolean verification achieves 99% exact-match accuracy on the same answer-absent arithmetic cases, showing that categorical rejection can fail even when the model successfully verifies candidate correctness. Finally, we show that a simple decision threshold selected on separate development problems raises arithmetic rejection accuracy from 7% to 79% while retaining 97% answer-present accuracy, substantially mitigating the failure without retraining or additional inference.
Sep 28, 2026cs.CV

When Does an Image Determine the Answer? Benchmarking Visual Answerability across Charts and Scenes

Reliable visual question answering requires correct answers when evidence is sufficient and abstention when it is not. We introduce a benchmark that connects complete-question evaluation with explicit evidence for its labels across PlotQA charts, CLEVR rendered scenes, and GQA photographs. Each question groups original and edited images, presented independently; success requires every supported answer and every required abstention to be correct. For chart missing-information labels, executable witnesses establish that admissible complete charts give different answers but identical pixels after masking. Scene labels follow source programs and edits, with a residual-cue analysis for photographs. Across 72,000 responses from six model configurations, the highest observed complete task success rates are 57.0%, 43.5%, and 33.7%, respectively. On charts, the strongest configuration achieves 96.2% per-view decision accuracy, yet 265 of its 835 groups with every decision correct still contain incorrect answers. Evaluating supported answers and necessary abstentions together exposes failures that answerability decisions alone conceal.
Sep 26, 2026cs.AI

The Commit-Abstain Circuit: Why Language Models Hallucinate Instead of Abstaining

Language models (LMs) often hallucinate by committing to confident answers rather than abstaining, even when they do not have enough information to answer reliably. A large body of existing work mitigates hallucination through detection or abstention mechanisms, but leaves open how models internally arrive at the decision to commit or abstain in the first place. We study this decision through mechanistic analysis, framing hallucination as unsupported commitment: the model commits despite exhibiting signals of unanswerability. Using causal gating, we identify a Commit-Abstain Circuit (CAC), a sparse, causally localised subset of attention heads and MLP sublayers underlying this decision. Across ten LMs (3B-14B) from five families and three benchmarks, the CAC exhibits a recurring accumulate-yet-undercorrect pattern: commitment-promoting components build up commitment in earlier layers, while abstention-promoting components act later as corrective signals that are often insufficient to overturn the accumulated commitment. Building on this finding, a lightweight policy trained on CAC activations improves decision accuracy by 12.2 points over the model's intrinsic commit-abstain margin, reduces false abstentions by 2.5 times, transfers to unseen benchmarks, and extends to larger models (27B-35B). The CAC is both diagnostic, clarifying how models overcommit, and practical, enabling improved abstention decisions.
Sep 24, 2026cs.CL

ChunkRank: Model-Aware Text Chunking and Abstention-Aware Answer Selection for LLM Pipelines

We present ChunkRank, an open-source Python library that derives chunk boundaries from a target model's tokenizer and context window, and selects an answer among candidates produced independently per chunk. It ships a validated registry of 90 models across 15 providers and six answer-selection methods, and needs only three core dependencies. For chunking, ChunkRank avoids context-window overflow automatically from the model name, whereas character-based splitters overflow or waste the budget, and a fidelity study across 11 languages shows why token-exact budgets matter beyond English. For answer selection we report a negative result: on NaturalQuestions, TriviaQA and HotpotQA, with extractive and generative readers, no content-based ranker reliably beats taking the first non-empty answer. The reason is reader abstention on chunks that lack the answer, not answer position. A long-context baseline shows that chunking matches single-call reading on single-hop questions, so ChunkRank targets small-window and beyond-window settings. Code, registry and evaluation harness are released.
Sep 23, 2026cs.CL

Meet, Compare, or Abstain: LatWeave for Deterministic Multi-Hop Question Answering on Knowledge Lattices

Probabilistic question-answering systems -- whether large language models (LLMs) themselves, retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), or trained multi-hop retrievers -- conflate "what is known" and "how to reason" into a single probabilistic computation: hallucination cannot be eradicated, evidence chains cannot be audited, and the system answers even when it does not know. We present LatWeave, which organizes knowledge into a multidimensional knowledge lattice and compiles multi-hop QA into three deterministic operators -- meet (constraint intersection), compare (lattice-order comparison), and abstain (structural abstention); LLMs appear only on the construction side (one-shot extraction) and the query-planning side, while the answer-generation path is zero-LLM, zero-task-training, and auditable end to end -- so that question answering over Web-published knowledge becomes reproducible item by item. Rather than claiming across-the-board SOTA, we characterize the operating envelope of this paradigm on six public benchmarks: when knowledge is complete (MetaQA, 39,093 questions) meet chains are near-lossless over three hops (any-hit 0.9975, on par with fully supervised KBQA); on templated multi-hop home ground (2WikiMultihopQA held-out n=1,258) EM 0.865, well above published structure-augmented RAG reproductions; on open-text deep composition (MuSiQue) and extraction-coverage gaps (HotpotQA) we report degradation honestly and attribute it to causes outside the lattice-algebra layer; and when information is incomplete (IIRC) we achieve structural abstention with abstain accuracy 0.971 and leak rate 0.029. Within the operating envelope, deterministic execution pays no performance penalty, and every step on the answer path can be recomputed -- precisely the source of end-to-end auditability.
Sep 16, 2026cs.CL

Selection Is Retrieval, Abstention Is Not: On-Device Tool Routing over 70 Korean-English Actions

An AI assistant that calls tools makes two decisions on every request: which tool to invoke, and whether any available tool applies. In the usual design a single language model makes both, by emitting a call or by declining to emit one. On a device that has to answer without a server, the language model is what makes that design expensive, dominating both the latency and the memory of the router. The common alternative is to remove the model completely and rank the catalog of local actions with a retriever instead. That substitution is not symmetric across the two decisions. A retriever returns its highest-scoring candidate for every input and cannot signal that the catalog holds no valid action. Our earlier study found that constraining a decoder to a tool grammar repairs malformed output without improving the choice. What the substitution costs in each decision has not been measured. We evaluate the two decisions separately over 600 Korean and English requests and a catalog of 70 local actions. The router may also ask for a missing slot, reply, or delegate. Half the in-catalog requests reuse catalog vocabulary and half paraphrase it, separating lexical overlap from the action requested. Character 3-gram BM25 selects 162 of 164 lexically matched requests and 85 of 166 paraphrases. Restricting the candidate set to seven raises the paraphrase figure to a mean of 0.825 over five trials. No classifier over its score features separates in-catalog from out-of-catalog above 0.697 area under the curve, where the frozen encoder multilingual-e5-base reaches 0.806. Using that encoder for abstention alone keeps 376 of the requests local and misroutes 9 of the 150 needing delegation. Abstention, not selection, is where a neural component is required. A neural ranker improves every quality metric and is rejected on latency and memory rather than accuracy.
Sep 15, 2026cs.CL

When Should LLMs Abstain? Chain-of-Self-Questioning for Selective Risk Control

Large language models can produce fluent answers when their factual support is weak. This paper introduces Chain-of-Self-Questioning (CoSQ), a prompt-only framework that makes answer commitment conditional on an explicit assessment of the information required to answer a question. We evaluate three CoSQ variants under seventeen conditions on the 817-item TruthfulQA multiple-choice validation set using eleven open-weight and hosted model families. In the final balanced-option protocol, Grounded-CoSQ at τ=0.90 reduces the mean unconditional wrong-commitment rate from 13.1% under chain-of-thought prompting to 8.9%, a 32.1% relative reduction, while increasing answered accuracy from 86.9% to 89.7% and answering 87.6% of questions. Both improvements hold for all eleven models and at every evaluated threshold. Critical-CoSQ and Adaptive-CoSQ provide neighboring operating points with 88.6% and 86.5% coverage, respectively, while remaining more reliable than the baseline. A secondary Natural Questions Short-Answer evaluation provides convergent open-form evidence. These findings show that self-assessment can support explicit, tunable answer-or-abstain decisions when an unsupported commitment is more costly than referral or review.
Sep 14, 2026cs.SE

A decision-basis contract for auditable LLM-assisted medical billing verification: deterministic rules, verbatim evidence, and fail-closed abstention

This work presents a proof of concept for auditable LLM-assisted medical billing verification based on a decision-basis contract. The contract separates deterministic checks of versioned fee-catalog rules from LLM-based assessment of free-text documentation. The deterministic layer resolves the applicable catalog release and checks code availability, quantity limits, and exclusions. The semantic layer classifies each claimed item as supported, contradicted, or missing required information. Support and contradiction require a verbatim evidence span; unavailable rule context, unsuccessful assessment, or missing required evidence prevents support through fail-closed abstention. We evaluated four locally run open-weight models on a synthetic catalog and 36 curated cases under the contract, an ablation without explicit documentation requirements, and an end-to-end baseline. Outcome agreement varied across models and showed no consistent advantage over the baseline. Explicit documentation requirements improved identification of missing information for all four models. The evidence gate also exposed cases in which correct raw judgments lacked valid evidence and were converted to incomplete decision-basis entries. The results show how explicit decision records can make rule findings, documentation judgments, and abstention reasons inspectable. Evaluation on real catalogs, independently annotated documentation, and with human reviewers is required to assess practical value.
Sep 12, 2026cs.AI

Off-Target Effects of Response-Style Alignment in a Korean 27B Language Model

We post-train Qwen3.8-27B for Korean response style -- verbosity, list and markdown usage, discourse structure and register -- and measure two behaviours the objective never targets: abstention on ambiguous social questions in KoBBQ, where the benchmark-correct answer is UNKNOWN, and unprompted disclosure in securities guidance. Both move, and the changes are expressed primarily through the model's emission policy: how often it answers and how much it says. Matched target-form controls show that answer propensity depends on the training target, not the prompt set or recipe alone. Holding prompts, recipe, data volume and serving fixed and changing only the target text, three style seeds give positive answer-rate point estimates (mean +0.82 pp) and three neutral seeds negative ones (mean -1.53 pp); the observed seed ranges do not overlap and the means differ by 2.34 pp. A length-matched arm lies between them, and a fourth arm that stays short while preserving hedging is unstable across seeds, so which feature of the form is responsible is unresolved. For absolute stereotyped exposure the decomposition into an answer-propensity term and a conditional-composition term is an algebraic identity, not a finding; its empirical content is where the movement went. Across the trained checkpoints the changes are dominated by answer propensity while the composition term stays small, and because that term is evaluated on treatment-dependent answered subsets we do not read it as evidence about latent preference. Two measurement results follow. A between-arm contrast in conditional stereotyped share does not identify a change in conditional content preference when answer status is treatment-dependent. And agreement between two rule detectors for the same construct runs from 0.44 to 0.99 depending on which checkpoint produced the text -- observable without any reference labels.
Sep 1, 2026cs.CL

Learning Evidence Sufficiency Boundaries for Selective Answering in Grounded Multi-Hop QA

Grounded question answering systems should answer only when the supplied evidence supports the answer. In multi-hop QA, this requirement is difficult because partial evidence can make an unsupported answer appear plausible. We study selective answering through evidence sufficiency boundaries: for the same question, a model should abstain under unsupported or partially supported context, answer when the context first becomes sufficient, and keep the answer stable when redundant evidence is added. We introduce Evidence Sufficiency Boundary Training, a generation-native training framework that constructs ordered evidence chains and supervises the abstain-to-answer transition directly. The method combines level supervision, a boundary flip margin, post-boundary stability, and answer recall protection. We build evidence chains from HotpotQA, 2WikiMultiHopQA, and MuSiQue, then evaluate models with chain metrics, raw QA utility, and unsupported-answer rates on external non-answerable sets. With Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct and LoRA adaptation, Evidence Sufficiency Boundary Training gives the strongest boundary localization among the tested systems, with flip accuracy of 0.807 compared with 0.781 for a token-level abstention baseline. It also achieves the lowest overall unsupported-answer rate on external non-answerable evaluation, 0.095 compared with 0.101 for the same baseline, while retaining competitive raw QA F1. The results show that grounded selective answering improves when training marks the evidence level where refusal should give way to answering.
Sep 1, 2026cs.CL

CHARM: Character Hallucination for Multicultural Role Play Benchmark

Role-playing large language models (LLMs) are expected to adopt a character's style while also respecting that character's knowledge boundaries. Prior evaluations detect character hallucination but rarely distinguish whether errors arise from failure to recognize a boundary or from failure to comply despite recognition. We introduce CHARM, a multicultural benchmark of 40 real and fictional characters drawn from five cultural-linguistic regions, and validated by native reviewers. It probes two boundary types, Temporal (historical vs. modern) and Cross-Universe (entities outside a character's narrative or historical universe), using abstention-enabled multiple-choice questions. We propose a two-stage evaluation that separates Boundary-Awareness (explicit recognition that a query is out of scope) from Boundary-Compliance (abstention when answering concrete questions). Evaluations across six LLMs show that hallucination is driven predominantly by compliance failures. Models frequently acknowledge that a query lies outside the character's knowledge yet still provide factual, out-of-character answers. By re-posing the same questions to the target character, we confirm that a large fraction of these cases are verified parametric overrides; the model stores the relevant fact but fails to suppress it. We also observe systematic cultural variation in these failures, consistent with imbalances in how characters from different regions are represented in model knowledge.
Aug 30, 2026cs.CL

Compression-Aware Abstention: Teaching LLMs to Refuse When KV-Compression Masks Remove Answer Evidence

KV-cache compression reduces LLM inference memory by evicting context tokens, but when the evicted tokens contain answer-bearing evidence, the model may hallucinate instead of recognizing that the compressed context is insufficient. We address this failure from a behavioral perspective: to our knowledge, this is the first work to formulate compression-aware abstention as a learning problem, in which a model learns to answer when supporting evidence survives compression and abstain when it does not. We construct supervision from compressor survival masks and tight answer-bearing spans, labeling examples as Confident when evidence survives and Abstain when it is removed. A 10.1M-parameter LoRA adapter trained on ~2.6K MuSiQue 2-hop QA examples reduces base-model hallucinations by 97% under prompt-style truncation while preserving correct answering on evidence-retaining examples. Unlike prompt-only abstention baselines, which over-abstain on many answerable high-retention examples, the trained adapter learns a conditional policy. We also evaluate the method under actual compressed-cache decoding, where multi-compressor training yields a 6-22x relative lift over the unaided base on evidence-retaining examples. Controlled-deletion experiments show that the learned behavior is driven by evidence content rather than input length alone.
Aug 30, 2026cs.CL

Check The Scoreboard: An Analysis of Scoring Schemes on Multiple-Choice Evaluation

Multiple-choice question answering (MCQA) benchmarks in NLP use number-right scoring (accuracy), but in educational testing, the scoring scheme, the combination of the response mode models follow and the rule for grading responses, is a key design choice that dictates which abilities to reward. We examine how alternatives to number right change what MCQA measures with six education-inspired schemes that assess abilities beyond accuracy: distractor elimination, abstention, confidence calibration, and self-correction. On LLM benchmarks, these schemes: 1) shift rankings of 31 LLMs beyond rephrased number right prompts; 2) better predict the LLMs users prefer in LLM Arena; and 3) reveal distinct model capabilities, like that GPT-5 rarely abstains and readily self-corrects, while weaker open-weight models often abstain and hesitate to eliminate choices. Given the benefits of alternative scoring schemes, we discuss ways to extend them to tasks beyond MCQA.
Aug 10, 2026cs.CL

When Confidence Fails: Overconfidence in LLMs under Uncertainty and Missing Clinical Information

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved strong performance in medical question answering and clinical reasoning tasks. However, their reliability under uncertainty remains poorly understood which raises critical concerns for deployment in high-stakes clinical settings. In such environments, incorrect predictions are inherently risky, but confident incorrect predictions can be particularly harmful as they may mislead clinical decision-making. In this paper, we conduct a systematic behavioral analysis of LLMs under clinical information uncertainty. We propose an evaluation framework based on the MedMCQA dataset consisting of two complementary uncertainty settings. First, we introduce linguistic uncertainty cues through prompt modifications to simulate ambiguous clinical contexts. Second, we construct an answer removal setting, wherein the correct option is deliberately excluded mandating the model to recognize insufficient information and abstain. We analyze both model accuracy and confidence behavior using multiple calibration metrics including calibration gap, Expected Calibration Error (ECE), and Unsafe Confident Error Rate (UCER) across 500 medical questions. Our results reveal a consistent failure mode, i.e., although accuracy degrades under increasing uncertainty, model confidence remains misaligned with accuracy. This leads to a substantial increase in unsafe confident errors, indicating that model confidence remains largely insensitive to clinically meaningful information loss. Furthermore, we observe significant variation across models in their ability to abstain when the correct answer is unavailable, with some models persistently producing high confidence hallucinated answers. These findings expose critical limitations in the epistemic reliability of current LLMs and highlight the need for uncertainty aware evaluation methods prior to their deployment in clinical workflows.
Aug 8, 2026cs.AI

REIN: Bridging the Gap between Reasoning and Reliability via Reflection and Abstention Alignment

Large reasoning models (LRMs) are prone to hallucination, which undermines their reliability and poses challenges for safe deployment. Hallucinations in LRMs arise from two distinct failure sources: reasoning hallucination, where flawed inference steps propagate to an incorrect conclusion, and knowledge hallucination, where the model lacks the requisite factual knowledge to answer the query. To address reasoning hallucination, we propose REIN, an alignment framework that trains LRMs to produce a structured reasoning sequence, \texttt{<think>} $$\rightarrow \texttt{<reflection>} $$\rightarrow <answer>\texttt{<answer>}, enabling explicit self-reflection before committing to a final answer. To address knowledge hallucination, REIN introduces a reward mechanism that encourages explicit abstention (e.g., "I don't know") when none of the sampled reasoning chains yields a correct answer, allowing the model to refrain from unsupported predictions. Extensive evaluations on mathematical and commonsense reasoning benchmarks show that REIN consistently improves selective accuracy, reduces incorrect-but-self-endorsed responses, and maintains high coverage compared with competitive baselines. Notably, REIN achieves these gains within a single forward pass, without requiring process supervision, inference-time controllers, external search, or multi-round critiques. Experiments on multiple backbones show that REIN reduces the hallucination proxy by 58∼72%58\sim72\% relative to the base models while maintaining 86∼91%86\sim91\% average coverage, and improves selective accuracy on attempted questions by 6.6∼14.2%6.6\sim14.2\%.
Aug 7, 2026cs.AI

CliniCARE-Bench: Clinical Calibrated Audit of Medical Reasoning in EHR

Large language models perform strongly on medical knowledge benchmarks, but reliable clinical deployment requires agents to conduct defensible investigations over heterogeneous, longitudinal records: determining what evidence is needed, retrieving and reconciling structured and free-text data, grounding conclusions in verifiable evidence, and deferring cases that cannot be resolved reliably. We introduce CliniCARE-Bench (Clinical Calibrated Audit of Medical Reasoning in EHR), a benchmark for retrospective clinical audit: 25 clinician-validated scenarios instantiated as 750 patient-specific cases over real-patient-derived MIMIC-IV data. Systems investigate each case through a governed, logged tool environment for record retrieval, computation, and policy access, and return one of four verdicts---Yes, No, Indeterminate: Lack of Data, or Indeterminate: Medically Ambiguous---the last two separating missing evidence from residual medical ambiguity. Beyond verdict accuracy, we score patient-evidence and policy grounding, process adherence, calibrated abstention, reliability, and efficiency against case-level reference verdicts produced by independent multi-model adjudication and calibrated against Clinical Board review. Every retrieval, computation, and report is replayable, so the investigation trace is inspectable and scorable. To our knowledge, CliniCARE-Bench is the first deployment-oriented clinical-agent benchmark to jointly evaluate real longitudinal EHR investigation, claim-level evidence grounding, governing-policy use, process adherence, and calibrated abstention within a common patient-level adjudication framework. Across 16 agentic systems, four-way accuracy spans 65.3-76.1%, but raw accuracy overstates investigation quality. Defect-free accuracy, which credits a verdict only when correct and free of prohibited shortcuts, is 4.8-14.8 points lower and reorders the leaderboard.
Aug 2, 2026cs.CL

HopRefusalBench: Diagnosing Refusal Failures in Search-Augmented Agents for Multi-Hop Reasoning

Search-augmented large language model agents are increasingly capable of solving knowledge-intensive tasks, but their behavior when a multi-hop question is fundamentally unanswerable remains poorly understood. Existing abstention benchmarks largely expose defects at the surface of single-hop queries and therefore cannot reveal failures that emerge only after valid intermediate reasoning and retrieval. We introduce HopRefusalBench, the first controlled benchmark of refusal within multi-hop search, comprising 889 unanswerable questions constructed from KILT-grounded entity paths. It crosses three causes of unanswerability (answer unknown, false premise, and underspecified context) with root, middle, and terminal topologies, making premise verification, intermediate-bridge validation, and terminal stopping separately observable. We further propose a final-outcome taxonomy spanning target-aware refusal, pseudo-refusal, hallucinated completion, and search-budget exhaustion, together with source-aware trajectory metrics for post-trigger continuation and token waste. Across ten frontier proprietary and open-weight models in search-augmented mode, the best model achieves a target-aware correct halting rate (TCHR) of only 42.9%. Root and middle items are consistently harder than terminal items, and all models attain their highest TCHR on false premises and their lowest on underspecified questions. Yet when pooled across categories, 84.7--98.4% of each model's explicit refusal-like responses identify the correct rationale, localizing the main bottleneck to committing to an appropriate non-answer; failed trajectories instead diverge into hallucination or search-budget exhaustion. These results establish refusal in multi-hop search as a consequential evaluation problem and provide a foundation for diagnosing and improving the reliability of search-augmented agents.
Jul 31, 2026cs.LG

Abstention as an Action Can Kill Both the Reward Gradient and the KL Anchor: Collapse Law and Repair for Error-Penalized Reinforcement Learning

Error-penalized scoring rules (+1+1 for a correct answer, −λ-λ for a wrong one, 00 for abstaining) are increasingly prescribed against hallucination: a rational agent facing such a rule answers exactly when its correctness probability exceeds Chow's threshold t∗=λ/(1+λ)t^\ast=λ/(1+λ). We prove that a KL-anchored gradient learner can do the opposite. When abstention is a discrete action, the reward gradient and the anchor's restoring force are throttled by the same gate-saturation factor and die together: under explicit conditions (among them, blanket answering loses score in expectation and prompts share a bounded readout) the model drifts toward refusing everything, its mean training reward rising to zero like 1/t1/t in training time tt, so the curve reads as improvement while coverage collapses. The advantage estimator compounds the failure: in its sparse-answer regime, group normalization silently replaces every designed penalty with an effective penalty of one, moving the learned threshold from t∗t^\ast to 1/21/2. The repair is structural: train a mandatory confidence report with a strictly proper score plus a correctness reward, and abstain only at deployment by thresholding the report. The always-emitted report has no gate to saturate, so no shared factor can kill its reward gradient and its anchor together, and its calibrated optimum is attracting. Simulations confirm every prediction, and experiments on language models at two scales confirm the mechanism live: the rule silences questions the models demonstrably still solve within ten optimizer steps, an ablation isolates the cause, and report-level training raises coverage, accuracy, and calibration together.
Jul 15, 2026cs.CL

Graded Entity-Familiarity Readouts in Language Models: Polish Adaptation, Cross-Language Robustness, and Refusal Steering

Can a language model estimate its familiarity with an entity before generating an answer? We study activations at the final prompt token in twelve instruction-tuned models from the Bielik, PLLuM, Gemma-4, and Qwen3 families, using a new dataset of 1,440 Polish entities spanning four domains and ten Wikipedia-pageview deciles, plus fabricated controls. Familiarity-probe scores separate real from fabricated entities in every family; in the Polish-adapted Bielik and PLLuM families they additionally track entity popularity (model-mean Spearman ρρ 0.28-0.57, versus at most 0.11 in Gemma-4 and Qwen3), a pattern more strongly associated with Polish adaptation than with parameter count in this model sample. In a paired experiment on two families, probes retain 96-101% of within-language AUROC when the Polish question stem is replaced with an English one around unchanged entity names, showing robustness to prompt language in this setting. In Gemma-4-12B, the only model that natively refuses, adding a one-dimensional familiarity direction at a single layer moves refusal rates monotonically in both directions (0.24 to 1.00 on well-known entities; 0.73 to 0.00 on unknown ones). Finally, a calibrated familiarity probe is competitive among pre-generation abstention gates, although post-generation detectors better predict behavioral error on average. These results support a graded pre-generation entity-familiarity readout, and a separation between representational familiarity and the policy that converts it into abstention.
Jul 4, 2026cs.SE

The "I Don't Know" Filter: Enhancing Agentic Reliability in Function Calling

The language models that underpin agents have seen a rapid rise in performance on function calling benchmarks. However, the metrics used in the training and evaluation of these models often encourage models to make positive claims even when the answer is uncertain, leading to hallucinations. Such hallucinations can be disastrous when language models are trusted to use function calls to make decisions in high stakes applications. To that end, we propose an agent evaluation metric that takes into account the negative outcomes associated with incorrect function calls. Further, to catch hallucinations before they can cause harm, we propose a lightweight trainable filter that can quantify a language model's uncertainty and remove potentially harmful function calls. By training that filter to detect and suppress uncertain function calls without modifying the underlying model, we demonstrate a practical path toward agents that know when to say "I don't know," a property we argue is essential to production reliability.
Jun 28, 2026cs.LG

Reported Confidence in LLMs Tracks Commitment More Than Correctness

Confidence is an estimate of the probability that a chosen answer is correct. Verbal confidence reports are widely used as uncertainty measures in large language models, but whether they are best understood as estimates of correctness is unclear. We test this with a two-stage abstention paradigm from the neuroscience of perceptual decision making: a model first answers and reports its confidence, then decides whether to commit it to a user or abstain. Across four non-reasoning models, prompt framings, and confidence formats, verbal confidence predicted the commit/abstain decision substantially better than whether the answer was correct. Calibrated token log-probabilities showed the opposite profile, with abstention-prediction coupled to correctness discrimination, the signature of an answer-evidence signal. After removing the variance verbal confidence shared with log-probabilities, the residual stayed aligned with commitment while its link to correctness fell to near chance. The dissociation generalised to four reasoning models across four benchmarks of varying difficulty, from hard multiple-choice to frontier-level freeform questions. Mechanistic analyses in Gemma 3 and 4 were convergent: a post-answer state known to causally support verbal-confidence generation already encoded the future abstention decision before the abstention prompt, organised mainly by that decision rather than by correctness, the two lying in approximately orthogonal directions in activation space. Steering along a verbal-confidence-specific direction causally shifted abstention. Verbal and log-probability confidence are thus not interchangeable: log-probabilities track answer evidence and correctness, whereas verbal confidence is better understood as a behaviour-facing readout of an internal commit-readiness state, challenging the practice of treating verbal reports as proxies for reliability.
Jun 27, 2026cs.AI

Agentic Abstention: Do Agents Know When to Stop Instead of Act?

LLM agents are expected to act over multiple turns, using search, browsing interfaces, and terminal tools to complete user goals. Yet not every goal is well specified or achievable in the available environment. In such cases, a reliable agent should recognize that further interaction is unlikely to help and abstain from additional tool calls. We define Agentic Abstention, the problem of deciding when an agent should stop acting under uncertainty. Unlike standard LLM abstention, which is usually evaluated as a single-turn answer-or-abstain decision, agentic abstention is a sequential decision problem: an agent can answer, abstain, or gather more information at each turn, and the need to abstain may only become clear after interacting with the environment. We study this problem across web shopping, terminal environments, and question answering, evaluating 13 LLM-as-agent systems and 2 agent scaffolds on more than 28,000 tasks. Our results show that the main challenge is not only whether agents can abstain, but also when they abstain. Some agents never abstain when they should, while others do so only after many unnecessary interactions. This gap is especially large on tasks where the instruction appears feasible until the environment reveals otherwise (e.g., no valid result matches the instruction). We further find that model scale, reasoning, and agent scaffolding affect abstention in different ways, where larger or more capable models sometimes perform worse at timely abstention. Finally, we introduce CONVOLVE, a context engineering method for improving agentic abstention that distills full interaction trajectories into reusable stopping rules. On WebShop, CONVOLVE substantially improves timely abstention without updating model parameters, raising Llama-3.3-70B's timely recall rate from 26.7 to 57.4. Our dataset and code are available at https://lhannnn.github.io/agentic-abstention
Jun 23, 2026cs.LG

Grad Detect: Gradient-Based Hallucination Detection in LLMs

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across diverse tasks, yet they remain prone to generating hallucinations. Detecting these hallucinations is critical for deploying LLMs reliably in high-stakes applications. We present Grad Detect, a gradient-based approach for predicting hallucinations by analyzing layer-wise gradient patterns from a single forward-backward pass during inference. Our method shows that the internal gradient structure of a model carries rich information about the correctness of its output. This information is not accessible through output-level signals alone. We evaluate Grad Detect on several Q&A benchmarks across both hallucination detection and model abstention prediction, where it consistently outperforms confidence-based and sampling-based baselines. Through comprehensive layer ablation studies across all eleven models from four architectural families, we find that the final five layers concentrate over 97% of the discriminative gradient signal, enabling efficient deployment with minimal performance loss. Grad Detect provides a unified framework for predicting multiple dimensions of LLM reliability, offering strong predictive performance alongside interpretable insights into where and how model failures originate.