Online Advertising

Advertising platforms use randomized lift tests to measure incrementality, but privacy-preserving reporting systems degrade the observed signal through match-rate loss, linkability loss, attribution-window loss, aggregation-threshold suppression, randomized reporting noise, and segment-heterogeneous signal loss. This paper formulates privacy-constrained advertising measurement as a robust causal decision problem under the mentioned signal losses. Given a randomized experiment and an ambiguity set for privacy-induced degradation, the framework projects the observation-compatible fiber of clean/unfiltered experimental worlds onto the incrementality functional and returns certified, rejected, and unresolved decisions. The main result gives a sharp decision frontier. Reports outside the frontier support uniformly valid certification or rejection, whereas reports inside it contain too little information for any method to uniformly distinguish above-threshold incrementality from non-incrementality. Supporting results give finite-sample certification, sample-complexity guarantees, a minimax lower bound showing that signal loss reduces effective information, and a reporting-granularity tradeoff. On 2.0M Criteo Uplift rows and the 64K-row Hillstrom email experiment, clean conversion lift is positive in both datasets, with lifts 0.00112 and 0.00495, respectively. Population certification survives mild degradation in Criteo and severe degradation in Hillstrom, while all considered finite-sample stress settings in both datasets remain unresolved after simultaneous uncertainty and reporting noise are included. Overall, the research contributes a decision-theoretic layer for privacy-aware incrementality measurement whose output is the strongest causal-claim justified by degraded ads signals.

Online advertising platforms rely on machine learning models to predict click-through rates (pCTR) and conversion rates (pCVR) for auction mechanisms. We introduce a novel framework to study the interaction between recommender system model quality, auction format, and autobidder behavior. We formalize when model improvements -- defined via a refinement relation inspired by filtrations in probability theory -- lead to improvements in platform-level Evaluation Criteria Metrics (ECM) such as revenue, welfare, or liquid welfare. Our main contributions are: (1) a formal definition of model improvement based on cluster refinement, and (2) a systematic characterization of ECM monotonicity across different combinations of bidder types (tCPA, max-CPA), auction formats (first-price, second-price, VCG), and budget constraints. We show that first-price auctions with uniform bidding guarantee revenue monotonicity for tCPA bidders without budgets (via Jensen's inequality), while second-price auctions and budget constraints can break this property. We provide full numerical constructions for the non-monotonicity results. Our findings have practical implications for advertising platforms seeking to align model improvements with business outcomes.

The digital media landscape has seen a pervasive shift toward short-form video advertising on TV, social media and e-commerce platforms. The present study focuses on deep saliency prediction for short-form video advertising. Deep saliency models have been used to generate predictions of human eye fixation patterns with the purpose of enhancing user interaction with digital technology and optimizing its design. For video ads, dynamic saliency maps capture where and when viewers are looking, revealing why video ads are effective, and how their content should be optimized. We develop and test a new deep dynamic saliency prediction model called ViASNet (Video Ad Saliency Network), which has an architecture founded on the 3D U-Net, and accommodates the influence of audio and the semantic meaning of scenes. We assess the model's performance on 151 video ads, each seen by about 20 viewers wile their eye movements were tracked, and explore the critical factors influencing model performance through ablation experiments. We calculate the entropy of the predicted saliency maps frame-by-frame as a diagnostic tool to identify ads and scenes that fail to engage viewers, and illustrate its use on test data of 15 unseen ads. Our study reveals that ad design and testing can be sped up considerably through automated systems built on deep saliency models such as ViASNet.

Recommendation systems power engagement and monetization across feeds, ads, and short-video platforms, but translating the latest advances in Large Language Models into Recommendation Systems (RecSys) gains remains rare, particularly in advertising and production-scale real-world industry setups. Prior real-world LLM successes typically fall into three buckets: (a) generative retrieval that directly predicts the next items for candidate generation, (b) late-stage re-ranking that uses LLMs, and (c) auxiliary signal enrichment with LLMs. We introduce a complementary paradigm for ads: a fine-tuned open-source LLM used not as a ranker, but as an ads-specific ancillary predictor, forecasting likely advertisers from user profiles and histories. This LLM-driven advertiser prediction augments conventional candidate generation and provides informative priors to downstream ranking. Developed in a large-scale production advertising system, our approach produces substantial offline improvements and measurable online business impact, demonstrating that LLM world knowledge and predictive capacity can be efficiently harnessed. Beyond validating LLMs for ads applications, our results show that targeted ancillary predictions can unlock end-to-end gains across both retrieval and late-stage ranking, offering a practical path to LLM-enhanced recommendation at scale.

Auto-bidding systems aim to maximize advertiser value over long horizons under budget constraints and ratio targets such as cost-per-acquisition, yet future traffic and auction dynamics are non-stationary and uncertain. Existing approaches face distinct limitations: control-based pacing reacts to deviations but cannot anticipate future conditions, while RL and generative methods fold constraints into reward signals, obscuring violations and degrading under distribution shift. We shift the learning target from actions to responses with the Generative Response Model (GRM), a history-conditioned sequence model that jointly predicts future traffic volume and horizon-aggregate cost/value curves as functions of a single bid multiplier. We show that under mild monotonicity conditions, the optimality gap relative to full per-tick control is bounded by the dispersion of per-tick marginal value-per-cost. Given predicted responses, a lightweight analytic controller enforces each active constraint via a 1D root-finding step. We prove this controller is exact for the single-multiplier problem and bound constraint violations under receding-horizon replanning in terms of prediction error. Experiments on AuctionNet show that GRM improves constraint stability and overall score compared to existing baselines.

In the competitive landscape of sponsored search, balancing retrieval quality with production latency is a critical challenge. While large retrieval models based on Small Language Models (SLMs) such as Qwen3-Embedding-4B/8B set strong upper bounds on public benchmarks, their deployment in high-throughput, latency-sensitive environments remains impractical. In this paper, we present HARNESS-LM (HLM), a three-phase training framework for transferring the capabilities of large-scale retrievers into compact, cost-efficient models. The approach comprises: (1) training a high-performance reference ("teacher") retriever by fine-tuning a billion-parameter-scale SLM; (2) aligning query representations via an L2 objective to distill knowledge into a sub-600M parameter student encoder; and (3) applying a final contrastive refinement stage to optimize the student for retrieval performance. We also present a comprehensive empirical study of key design choices, including alignment objectives, embedding dimensionality, model scale, architecture, and optimization strategies, to identify configurations that are most effective in production settings. On a real-world Bing Ads evaluation benchmark, HLM recovers over 98% of the reference retriever's precision across multiple settings, while delivering up to 27x lower online query-encoder latency and 20x higher throughput on NVIDIA A100 GPUs. Online A/B testing on Bing Ads further shows a +1% Revenue, +0.6% Impression, and +0.4% Click uplift over the current ensemble of retrievers running in production with the deployed 190M parameter model, clearly highlighting the practical efficacy of the HLM recipe in a real-world sponsored search setting.

Traditional ads recommendation systems have primarily focused on optimizing for prediction accuracy of click or conversion events using canonical metrics such as recall or normalized discounted cumulative gain (NDCG). With the hyper-growth of ads inventory and liquidity with generative AI technologies, the prediction stability and predictability is becoming increasingly critical. Intuitively, prediction stability and predictability can be defined to quantify system robustness with respect to minor/noisy input (ads, creatives) perturbations, the lack of which could lead to advertiser perceivable problems such as repeatability, cold start and under-exploration. In this paper, we introduce a new evaluation framework for quantifying stability and predictability of an ads recommender system, and present an online validated semantic candidate generation framework powered by fine-tuned Large Language Models (LLMs) that showed significant improvement along these metrics by fundamentally improving the semantic-awareness of the system. The approach extracts hierarchical semantic attributes from ad creatives to obtain LLM representations, which serve as the foundation for graph-based expansion, ensuring the retrieved candidates encapsulate semantic variants of an ad, guaranteeing that small creative variants from the advertiser yield consistent and explainable delivery results to the user. We tested this LLM ads retrieval framework in a large-scale industrial ads recommendation system, demonstrating significant improvements across offline and online A/B experiments, showcasing gains in both predictability and traditional performance metrics. Although evaluated in the ads stack, this is a general framework that can be applied broadly to any large-scale recommendation and retrieval systems facing similar scaling and predictability challenges.

Logged advertising auctions make offline reserve-price evaluation attractive but risky. Replay tables can identify policies with large apparent yield gains, yet they can also hide weak threshold support, multiple-comparison effects, subgroup harm, and bidder-response uncertainty. Existing replay and off-policy evaluation methods estimate or rank policy values, but they do not directly answer the operational question of whether the available evidence is strong enough to justify validation. This paper develops a support-aware offline decision framework for reserve-policy selection. Rather than outputting a single point-estimate winner, the framework converts logged evidence into a conservative decision object consisting of certified policies, statistically dominated alternatives, and unresolved candidates requiring further validation. The main theoretical result gives a unified finite-catalog guarantee showing that, under simultaneous uncertainty control and conservative support gates, the framework preserves the best gate-passing policy while eliminating only policies with certified regret. Supporting results characterize support-localized replay generalization, establish information-theoretic threshold-resolution limits, and quantify when heterogeneous bidder response can overturn localized replay rankings. Experiments on iPinYou real-time-bidding logs show that the leading reserve rule achieves a 47.66% replay lift in season two, a 40.71% simultaneous lower-bound lift, and a 43.87% frozen out-of-time replay lift in season three. The framework reduces a 19-policy catalog to a two-policy validation shortlist while certifying non-harm across 44 advertiser, exchange, and region segments. The results support the central claim that offline reserve-policy evaluation should produce certified validation decisions rather than point-estimate rankings alone.

Guaranteed display advertising is crucial for platform monetization, yet existing methods often operate under a single-slot assumption, limiting their ability to optimize allocation across multi-slot page views. In this paper, we propose a novel joint optimization framework for multi-slot GD allocation, addressing key challenges such as slot-level redundancy, contract imbalance, and exposure concentration. Our approach formulates the allocation as an offline bipartite matching problem with a contract roulette mechanism for slot exclusivity and Page View constraints for impression control, and incorporates a scalable allocation optimization algorithm for efficient large-scale deployment. Extensive online tests on the Meituan advertising platform demonstrate that our method significantly improves merchant ROI, platform revenue efficiency, and contract fulfillment robustness. Specifically, online A/B tests show a 28.99% increase in Average Revenue Per User under 70% traffic, and DID analysis further indicates improved contract stability, demonstrating the strong applicability and effectiveness of our framework in real-world advertising deployments.

Automated bidding is central to modern digital advertising. Early rule-based methods lacked adaptability, while subsequent Reinforcement Learning approaches modeled bidding as a Markov Decision Process but struggled with long-term dependencies. Recent generative models show promise, yet they lack explicit mechanisms to balance exploration and safety, relying solely on action perturbations or trajectory guidance without a safety fallback. This results in inefficient exploration and elevated financial risk for advertising platforms. To address this gap, we propose GUIDE (Generative Auto-Bidding with Unified Modeling and Exploration), a framework that synergistically integrates directed exploration with a safe fallback mechanism. GUIDE employs a Decision Transformer (DT) to jointly model historical bidding actions and environmental state transitions. A Q-value module guides the DT's exploration via regularization constraints, while an Inverse Dynamics Module (IDM) leverages DT-predicted future states to infer robust, behaviorally consistent actions as a safe policy fallback. The Q-value module then adaptively selects the final action between these two options, balancing exploration and safety. Together, these components form an integrated "explore-safeguard-select" pipeline that unifies efficiency and safety. We conduct extensive experiments on public datasets, in simulated auction environments, and through large-scale online deployment on Taobao, a leading Chinese advertising platform. Results show GUIDE consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across all scenarios. In real-world deployment, GUIDE achieves notable gains: +4.10% ad GMV, +1.40% ad clicks, +1.66% ad cost, and +3.52% ad ROI, demonstrating its effectiveness and strong industrial applicability.

Major deployed generative AI advertising systems preserve a visible boundary between commercial content and AI-generated responses. Yet empirical research shows that ads woven directly into large language model (LLM) outputs often go undetected by users. We argue that generative AI fundamentally changes advertising: rather than placing products into discrete slots, it enables interventions on the generative process itself, which induce commercial influence through less observable channels. This reframes generative AI advertising as a problem of trustworthy intervention rather than content placement. We introduce a taxonomy organized by influence tier, corresponding to interventions on progressively more latent variables: product mentions, information framing, behavioral redirection, and long-term preference shaping; and show how these tiers instantiate across modalities and system architectures, including retrieval-augmented generation and agentic pipelines where upstream decisions can sharply constrain downstream outcomes. Both major deployed systems and designed mechanisms concentrate on the most observable and easiest-to-govern tier, while the forms of commercial influence most consequential for user autonomy remain poorly understood and lack frameworks for detection, measurement, or disclosure. The central challenge is whether commercial influence in generative systems can be made trustworthy, i.e., attributable, measurable, contestable, and aligned with user welfare.

The integration of advertising auction mechanisms into large language model (LLM)-based chatbots presents a significant opportunity for commercialization, yet poses unique challenges in balancing relevance, efficiency, and user experience. Recently, Feizi et al.\citep{feizi2023online} and Hajiaghayi et al.\citep{hajiaghayi2024ad} outlined a retrieve-then-generate paradigm that decouples retrieval and generation, offering lightweight ad insertion and payment determination. However, current retrieval relies solely on text embedding similarity, which may lead to commercial misinterpretation and issues such as repetitive insertions. In this paper, we propose LERA, a two-stage retrieve-then-generate auction framework tailored for LLM chatbots. In the first stage, embedding-based coarse filtering pre-selects a small set of candidate advertisers. In the second stage, the LLM itself is queried with a carefully designed prompt to produce logits over candidates, which serve as refined organic relevance scores. These scores are combined with bids, and a critical-value payment rule accounts for both the coarse-filtering and fine-ranking thresholds, ensuring truthfulness for utility-maximizing advertisers. The framework naturally extends to multiple ad insertions within dynamic dialogue flows and long responses. Experiments on a synthetic advertiser-query benchmark show that LERA substantially improves ad selection accuracy and insertion diversity while incurring only controllable latency overhead.

Marketplace platforms routinely evaluate pricing and allocation policies using logged observational data, yet strong offline performance does not imply that a policy is safe to deploy. In real-time bidding (RTB) marketplaces, reserve-price and floor-policy changes affect not only revenue but also fill, advertiser value, budget pacing, and competition across auctions, creating feedback and interference. The central problem is therefore not to estimate whether a policy improves an offline metric, but to determine whether the available evidence justifies direct launch or only further validation. In this regard, we propose a support-aware decision-support system (DSS) that distinguishes promising from actionable evidence. The framework integrates replay, support-aware off-policy evaluation (OPE), conservative lower-bound ranking, multi-sided guardrails, out-of-time validation, sensitivity analysis, and interference-aware validation design into a claim-preserving pipeline that outputs a launch-readiness classification rather than a single performance estimate. Applying the framework to iPinYou-style RTB logs, we identify a margin-gated floor policy as the leading candidate, with a 47.7% replay yield lift, a 45.8% conservative lower-tail lift, and stable out-of-time performance. However, the framework does not recommend direct launch. A decision-rule ablation shows that simplified pipelines select the same policy but incorrectly recommend deployment, leaving key causal assumptions unresolved. In contrast, the proposed DSS selects the same policy but changes the action to online validation, reflecting missing evidence on propensities, bidder response, and interference. Overall, the contribution is a reproducible DSS protocol that prevents decision overclaim under partial identification and converts offline evaluation into an auditable, action-oriented recommendation.

Generating realistic and user-preferred advertisements is a key challenge in e-commerce. Existing approaches utilize multiple independent models driven by click-through-rate (CTR) to controllably create attractive image or text advertisements. However, their pipelines lack cross-modal perception and rely on CTR that only reflects average preferences. Therefore, we explore jointly generating personalized image-text advertisements from historical click behaviors. We first design a Unified Advertisement Generative model (Uni-AdGen) that employs a single autoregressive framework to produce both advertising images and texts. By incorporating a foreground perception module and instruction tuning, Uni-AdGen enhances the realism of the generated content. To further personalize advertisements, we equip Uni-AdGen with a coarse-to-fine preference understanding module that effectively captures user interests from noisy multimodal historical behaviors to drive personalized generation. Additionally, we construct the first large-scale Personalized Advertising image-text dataset (PAd1M) and introduce a Product Background Similarity (PBS) metric to facilitate training and evaluation. Extensive experiments show that our method outperforms baselines in general and personalized advertisement generation. Our project is available at https://github.com/JD-GenX/Uni-AdGen.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable potential in advertising scenarios such as ad creative generation and targeted advertising. However, deploying LLMs in real-time advertising systems poses significant challenges due to their high inference latency and computational cost. In this paper, we propose an Efficient Generative Targeting framework that integrates adaptive group quantization, layer-adaptive hierarchical sparsification, and prefix-tree parallel verification to accelerate LLM inference while preserving generation quality. Extensive experiments on two real-world advertising scenarios demonstrate that our framework achieves significant speedup with acceptable quality degradation, making it operationally viable for practical deployments.

Reconciling platform revenue with user experience in LLM advertising motivates a data-centric foundation. We introduce NaiAD, the first comprehensive dataset for LLM-native advertising comprising 58,999 carefully constructed ad-embedded responses paired with user queries. NaiAD is organized around theoretically grounded evaluation metrics that separately and comprehensively capture user and commercial utility. To mitigate the dimensional collinearity of aligned LLMs, we propose a decoupled generation pipeline that produces structurally diverse samples, ranging from responses that explicitly disentangle stakeholder utilities to responses that are uniformly strong or weak across dimensions. We further provide score labels calibrated by a Variance-Calibrated Prediction-Powered Inference (VC-PPI) framework, aligning automated scoring with human annotations. Mechanistic analyses reveal that successful ad integration relies on reasoning paths that cluster into four distinct semantic strategies. Models leveraging NaiAD internalize these strategies to simultaneously improve user and commercial utility, while enabling independent control over these distinct objectives via in-context learning. Together, these results position NaiAD as a foundational infrastructure for developing future LLM-native ad systems.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) transition into conversational agents, generative advertising emerges as a crucial monetization strategy. However, embedding advertisements within unstructured LLM outputs introduces a critical trilemma: balancing advertiser payoffs, platform revenue, and user experience. Existing methods, such as prompt injection or rigid position slots, disrupt semantic coherence and lack a parametric framework for independent control, rendering rigorous mechanism design intractable. To bridge this gap, we introduce Neuron Auctions, a novel paradigm that shifts the auction object from the surface text space to the LLM's internal representations. Leveraging mechanistic interpretability, we identify brand-specific feed-forward network (FFN) neurons and demonstrate that competing brands activate within approximately orthogonal subspaces. This near-perfect independence allows us to define continuous, disentangled intervention budgets (specifically, neuron counts and amplification factors) as auctionable commodities. Building on this computational carrier, we design a continuous menu-based auction mechanism that naturally guarantees strategy-proofness and optimizes revenue for the platform. By explicitly incorporating a user utility penalty into the platform's optimization objective, our framework dynamically prices out overly aggressive interventions. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Neuron Auctions effectively preserve natural discourse quality while achieving an optimal alignment between commercial incentives and user satisfaction.

Auto-bidding is a crucial task in real-time advertising markets, where policies must optimize long-horizon value under delivery constraints (e.g., budget and CPA). Existing methods for auto-bidding rely on compact numerical state representations: while they can implicitly capture delivery dynamics, they offer limited support for explicitly representing and controlling high-level intent, evolving feedback, and operator-style strategic guidance in real campaigns. Meanwhile, Large Language Models (LLMs) offer a powerful method for encoding semantic information, it remains unclear when LLMs help and how to integrate them without sacrificing numerical precision. Through systematic preliminary studies, we find that (1) LLM embeddings contain bidding-relevant cues yet cannot replace numerical features, and (2) gains emerge only with careful semantic--numeric integration rather than naive concatenation. Motivated by these findings, we propose \textit{SemBid}, a novel auto-bidding framework that injects LLM-encoded semantics into offline bidding trajectories at the token level. SemBid introduces three semantic inputs: \textit{Task}, \textit{History}, and \textit{Strategy}. It injects these semantics as tokens alongside numerical trajectory tokens and uses self-attention to integrate them, improving controllability and generalization across objectives. Across diverse scenarios and budget regimes, SemBid outperforms competitive baselines from offline RL and generative sequence modeling, with more consistent gains in overall performance, constraint satisfaction, and robustness. Our code is available at: \href{https://github.com/AlanYu04/SemBid-KDD2026}{\textcolor{blue}{here}}.

Online advertising governance faces significant challenges due to the non-stationary nature of regulatory policies, where emerging mandates (e.g., restrictions on education or aesthetic anxiety) create severe label inconsistencies and reasoning ambiguities in historical datasets. In this paper, we propose ARGUS, a policy-adaptive governance system that enables evolving reinforcement through multi-agent adversarial umpiring. ARGUS addresses the sparsity of new policy data by employing a three-stage framework: (1) Policy Seeding for initial perception; (2) Adversarial Label Rectification, which utilizes a Prosecutor-Defender-Umpire'' architecture to resolve conflicts between stale labels and new mandates; and (3) Latent Knowledge Discovery, which employs a tripartite dialectical discussion to unearth sophisticated, gray-area'' violations. By leveraging RAG-enhanced policy knowledge and Chain-of-Thought synthesis as dynamic rewards for reinforcement learning, ARGUS synchronizes its reasoning pathways with evolving regulations. Extensive experiments on both industrial and public datasets demonstrate that ARGUS significantly outperforms traditional fine-tuning baselines, achieving superior policy-adaptive learning with minimal gold data.

Existing auto-bidding algorithms in digital advertising often treat the value of an ad opportunity as the revenue obtained when an ad is shown and/or clicked, and bid accordingly. This can lead to wasteful spending because the true value is the marginal gain from paid exposure: even without winning a sponsored slot, an advertiser may still earn revenue via an organic search result (e.g., on Google or Amazon). Motivated by recent work, we model ad value as a treatment effect--the outcome difference between winning and losing the auction--and study online learning for bidding in second-price (Vickrey) auctions under this causal perspective. We develop algorithms that attain rate-optimal regret under several feedback models. A key ingredient exploits the information revealed by the second-price payment rule, which strictly improves regret relative to analogous learning problems in first-price auctions.

Treatment allocation under budget constraints is a central challenge in digital advertising: advertisers must decide which users to show ads to while spending a limited budget wisely. The standard approach follows a two-stage offline pipeline - first collect historical data to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE), then solve a constrained optimization to allocate the budget. This works well with abundant data, but fails in cold-start settings such as new campaigns, new markets, or new customer segments where little historical data exists. We propose Budget-Constrained Causal Bandits (BCCB), an online framework that learns which users respond to ads while simultaneously spending the budget, making treatment decisions one user at a time. BCCB unifies three components into a single sequential process: learning individual-level ad effectiveness, exploring users whose response is uncertain, and pacing the budget over time. We evaluated on the Criteo Uplift dataset, a large-scale advertising dataset from a real randomized controlled trial. Our key finding is a data-efficiency crossover: offline methods require approximately 10,000 historical observations to produce reliable results, while BCCB operates effectively from the very first user. Furthermore, BCCB exhibits 3-5x lower performance variance between runs, making it more practical for real campaign planning. Among purely online methods, BCCB consistently outperforms standard Thompson Sampling, budgeted Thompson Sampling, and greedy HTE estimation across all budget levels tested.

Delayed feedback poses a core challenge for online CVR prediction, forcing a trade-off between label accuracy and data freshness. Existing methods address this through delay modeling or sample reweighting, yet neglect how post-click behaviors evolve over the observation period. To overcome this limitation, we formalize this evolution as feedback trajectory and propose TRACE. Instead of forcing hard labels on unrevealed samples, our method evaluates how well the accumulated feedback status aligns with conversion versus non-conversion, dynamically refining posteriors without waiting for final outcomes. To counteract early-stage trajectory sparsity, we further design a reliability-gated retrospective completer that leverages full-lifecycle data to provide adaptive posterior guidance for unrevealed samples. Extensive experiments validate TRACE's superiority over state-of-the-art baselines and confirm the retrospective completion module as a model-agnostic enhancer for existing systems. Our code is available at https://github.com/LunaZhangxy/TRACE.

Current benchmarks for evaluating large language models (LLMs) in social media moderation completely overlook a serious threat: covert advertisements, which disguise themselves as regular posts to deceive and mislead consumers into making purchases, leading to significant ethical and legal concerns. In this paper, we present the CHASM, a first-of-its-kind dataset designed to evaluate the capability of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) in detecting covert advertisements on social media. CHASM is a high-quality, anonymized, manually curated dataset consisting of 4,992 instances, based on real-world scenarios from the Chinese social media platform Rednote. The dataset was collected and annotated under strict privacy protection and quality control protocols. It includes many product experience sharing posts that closely resemble covert advertisements, making the dataset particularly challenging.The results show that under both zero-shot and in-context learning settings, none of the current MLLMs are sufficiently reliable for detecting covert advertisements.Our further experiments revealed that fine-tuning open-source MLLMs on our dataset yielded noticeable performance gains. However, significant challenges persist, such as detecting subtle cues in comments and differences in visual and textual structures.We provide in-depth error analysis and outline future research directions. We hope our study can serve as a call for the research community and platform moderators to develop more precise defenses against this emerging threat.

Reach and Frequency (R&F) contract advertising is an important form of widely used brand advertising. Unlike performance advertising, R&F contracts emphasize controllable delivery of UV and PV under given targeting, scheduling, and frequency control constraints. In practical systems, advertisers typically need to view the UV, PV change curves at different budget levels in real time when creating an R&F contract. However, most existing publicly available advertising datasets are based on independent samples, lacking a characterization of the core structure of the "budget-performance curve" (including UV and PV) in R&F contracts.This paper proposes and releases a large-scale R&F contract inventory estimation dataset. This dataset uses the R&F contract context consisting of "targeting-scheduling-frequency control" as the basic context, providing observations of UV and PV corresponding to multiple budget points within the same context, thus forming a complete budget-performance curve. The dataset explicitly includes a time-window-based frequency control mechanism (e.g.,"no more than 3 times within 5 days") and naturally satisfies the monotonicity and diminishing marginal returns characteristics in the budget and scheduling dimensions. We further derive the theoretical maximum exposure ceiling and use it as a consistency check to evaluate data quality and the feasibility of model predictions. Using this data set, this paper defines two standardized benchmark tasks: single-point performance prediction and reconstruction of budget-performance curves, and provides a set of reproducible baseline methods and evaluation protocols. This dataset can support systematic research on problems such as structural constraint learning, monotonic regression, curve consistency modeling, and R&F contract planning.The code for our experiments can be found at https://github.com/pengyunshan/RF-Inventory.

Cost-per-click (CPC) in paid search is an auction-generated outcome shaped by a competitive landscape that is only partially observable from any single advertiser's history. From 1.66 billion Google Ads log records for a concentrated car-rental market (2021-2023), we construct a weekly panel of 1,811 keyword series over 127 weeks (218,924 keyword-week observations) and build competition-aware proxies from keyword text, CPC trajectories, and geographic market structure. The design combines (i) semantic neighborhoods and a semantic keyword graph from pretrained transformer-based keyword representations, (ii) behavioral neighborhoods from Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) alignment of CPC trajectories, and (iii) geographic-intent covariates capturing localized demand and marketplace heterogeneity. We evaluate these signals both as exogenous covariates and as relational priors in spatiotemporal graph forecasters, benchmarking them against statistical, neural, and time-series foundation-model baselines. The results reveal a clear horizon crossover. At one week, graph-based models achieve the lowest error, reducing sMAPE by 15.1% relative to the strongest classical/ML baseline; at the six- and twelve-week horizons, covariate-augmented foundation models dominate, reducing sMAPE by 22.5% and 27.6%, respectively. The gains concentrate in the high-CPC, high-volatility keywords where forecasting errors are most costly. A falsification battery supports the competition interpretation at the planning horizon: the semantic competition graph outperforms a confounder-matched non-competitive graph by 4.05 sMAPE points, and matched-neighbour and time-shuffled controls show the six-week gains are competition-specific rather than generic smoothing. Together, the findings establish a horizon-dependent competition-aware forecasting design for auction-driven advertising markets under partial observability.

Brand advertising plays a critical role in building long-term consumer awareness and loyalty, making it a key objective for advertisers across digital platforms. Although real-time bidding has been extensively studied, there is limited literature on algorithms specifically tailored for brand auction ads that fully leverage their unique characteristics. In this paper, we propose a lightweight Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework designed for brand advertising campaigns, exploiting the inherent attributes of brand ads -- such as stable user engagement patterns and fast feedback loops -- to simplify modeling and improve efficiency. Our approach utilizes online isotonic regression to construct monotonic bid-to-spend and bid-to-conversion models directly from streaming data, eliminating the need for complex machine learning models. The algorithm operates fully online with low computational overhead, making it highly practical for real-world deployment. Simulation results demonstrate that our approach significantly improves spend efficiency and cost control compared to baseline strategies, providing a scalable and easily implementable solution for modern brand advertising platforms.

While Large Language Model (LLM) agents have made remarkable progress on complex reasoning, evaluating them in real-world environments remains an open problem. Existing benchmarks are largely confined to idealized simulations and fail to capture specialized domains such as advertising and marketing analytics, where tasks require multi-round interaction with professional tools and where ground-truth answers quickly become obsolete as data and platform rules evolve. To address this, we propose AD-Bench, a benchmark built from real user marketing-analysis requests on a production advertising platform. AD-Bench introduces two key designs: (i) a dynamic ground-truth pipeline that replays expert tool-call trajectories to regenerate answers consistent with the current environment, mitigating answer obsolescence; and (ii) a trajectory-aware evaluation that jointly measures end-to-end answer correctness (Pass@k) and trajectory coverage. Requests are stratified into three difficulty levels (L1-L3) to probe multi-round, multi-tool collaboration. Experiments show that the best model, Claude-Opus-4.7, attains Pass@1 = 76.9% and Pass@3 = 80.4% with 82.7% trajectory coverage overall, yet drops sharply on L3 to Pass@1 = 61.4% and Pass@3 = 65.1%, revealing that even state-of-the-art agents have substantial gaps in complex advertising analytics.

In online advertising, marketing interventions such as coupons introduce significant confounding bias into Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction. Observed clicks reflect a mixture of users' intrinsic preferences and the uplift induced by these interventions. This causes conventional models to miscalibrate base CTRs, which distorts downstream ranking and billing decisions. Furthermore, marketing interventions often operate as multi-valued treatments with varying magnitudes, introducing additional complexity to CTR prediction. To address these issues, we propose the Unified Multi-Valued Treatment Network (UniMVT). Specifically, UniMVT disentangles confounding factors from treatment-sensitive representations, enabling a full-space counterfactual inference module to jointly reconstruct the debiased base CTR and intensity-response curves. To handle the complexity of multi-valued treatments, UniMVT employs an auxiliary intensity estimation task to capture treatment propensities and devise a unit uplift objective that normalizes the intervention effect. This ensures comparable estimation across the continuous coupon-value spectrum. UniMVT simultaneously achieves debiased CTR prediction for accurate system calibration and precise uplift estimation for incentive allocation. Extensive experiments on synthetic and industrial datasets demonstrate UniMVT's superiority in both predictive accuracy and calibration. Furthermore, real-world A/B tests confirm that UniMVT significantly improves business metrics through more effective coupon distribution.

Optimizing a single advertising campaign across heterogeneous channels is a central challenge in industrial autobidding. Auction mechanisms vary across channels in ranking rules (pure eCPM vs. UE-augmented scoring), pricing formats (first- vs. second-price), and bidding conventions (uniform vs. non-uniform), while advertisers impose shared campaign-level constraints. We propose HOB, which makes marginal cost (MC) computable and alignable across heterogeneous channels, especially for first-price auctions (FPA) with organic-paid coexistence, where existing bidding formulations do not yield a practical aligned MC form. At the global level, HOB derives channel-specific MC forms and coordinates disparate channels through a shared MC target. At the local level, HOB models free-win probability and winning-price uncertainty with a zero-inflated exponential distribution, yielding an efficient surplus-optimal bidding strategy for non-uniform first-price auctions. We show that any interior optimum satisfies MC equalization across channels. Experiments on a controlled offline benchmark, industrial log replay, and large-scale online A/B tests demonstrate that HOB consistently delivers significant performance gains. Deployed on a large-scale commercial DSP, HOB delivers a 3.0% lift in GMV while maintaining return on advertising spend (ROAS) constraints.

We study budget pacing in repeated first-price auctions when an advertiser's private-value distributions change over time and the stationary competing-bid distribution is unknown. We ask how a feasible expenditure plan should enter online bid shading, learning, and hard budget control. We establish a plan-to-performance decomposition for a plan-driven projected-dual policy. The policy uses any feasible expenditure plan as a soft target, learns an unknown stationary competing-bid CDF from thresholds revealed after each auction, and enforces the campaign budget on every sample path. Against a distribution-informed expected-budget fluid benchmark, the uniform-plan reward gap is $O(\sqrt T)+O(\mathcal W_T)$, where $\mathcal W_T$ measures heterogeneity in private-value distributions. With a supplied feasible plan, the global gap decomposes into a one-sided $O(\sqrt{T})$ fixed-plan execution term and a plan-mismatch term bounded by $(b/2a)PlanError$. The same analysis provides guarantees for strict and relaxed period-cap comparators, exact recovery of the global benchmark under a specific allowance vector, and separate lower bounds establishing the necessity of the temporal-heterogeneity and Plan Error terms. An upstream planner can translate forecasts or managerial priorities into a feasible spending trajectory, while the online controller adapts bids using realized thresholds and expenditures. The guarantee is modular: it evaluates the final normalized or projected plan through $PlanError$. A specific forecasting model can be linked to the guarantee by establishing how its primitive estimation errors propagate to this plan-quality metric.