Selective Prediction

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32 papers in the last four weeks, up 88% on the four weeks before. 0.3% of all new papers.

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  1. Uncertainty-Aware Abstention in Large Language Models with Provable Alignment Guarantees

    Jul 5, 2026Sijin Dong, Hiroyuki ShinnouSelective PredictionConfidence Estimation in Language Models

    1Ibaraki University, Japan.

  2. Model Confidence-Guided Multi-Image Fusion of Fundus Images for Diabetic Retinopathy Diagnosis

    Jul 3, 2026Ananya Raghu, Anisha Raghu, Alice S. Tang +3Multi-Source Image FusionSelective Prediction

    Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA · Bakar Computational Health Sciences Institute, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA · Wilmer Eye Institute, Department of Ophthalmology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA +3

  3. Aligning Language Models with Selective Prediction

    Jul 3, 2026Gaoxiang Luo, Yifan Wu, Sinian Zhang +2RL for Language ModelsLLM Alignment

    Department of Computer Science and Engineering · 2Bioinformatics and Computational Biology Program · 3Division of Biostatistics and Health Data Science

  4. Denoised Conformal Alignment for Reliable Selection of Conditional Average Treatment Effect Predictions

    Jul 3, 2026Xinyun Lu, Haoang Chi, Zhiheng ZhangCausal Effect EstimationSelective Prediction

    Shanghai University of Finance and Economics · Shanghai Jiao Tong University · National University of Defense Technology, Changsha, China +2

  5. Robustness Meets Uncertainty: Evidential Adversarial Training for Robust Selective Classification

    Jul 3, 2026Nicolas Sournac, Ahmed Baha Ben Jmaa, Bertrand BraeckeveldtAdversarial TrainingEvidential Deep Learning

    Multitel Research & Innovation Center, Artificial Intelligence Department, Belgium · TRAIL – Trusted AI Labs, Belgium

  6. Efficient Waste Sorting for Circular Economy: A Confidence-guided comparison between One-Vs-All and One-Vs-Rest Classification Strategies with Human-in-the-Loop for Automated Waste Sorting

    Jul 2, 2026Mohammed Fahad Ali, Dominique Briechle, Marit Briechle-Mathiszig +2Selective PredictionMulticlass Classification

    Institute for Software and Systems Engineering Clausthal University of Technology Germany

  7. Beyond Supervised Clarification: Input Rewriting with LLMs for Dialogue Discourse Parsing

    Jul 2, 2026Yiming Liu, Ziyue Zhang, Zhichao Xu +4Selective PredictionLLM Prompting

    University of Oklahoma · University of Utah · Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory +1

  8. Evaluating Large Language Model Raters for German Open-Response Clinical Questions: A Physician-Annotated Benchmark Study of Agreement, Evaluator Bias, and Abstention

    Jul 1, 2026William Philipp, Finn Fassbender, Daniel Fister +12Multilingual Language Model EvaluationLLM-as-a-Judge

    Section for Clinical Research-IT, Institute of Medical Biometry and Statistics, University of Luebeck, Luebeck, Germany · Medical Faculty, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany · German Medical Students’ Association (bvmd), Berlin, Germany +9

  9. Uncertainty-Aware Last-Layer Adaptation of RETFound for Referable Diabetic Retinopathy Screening Under Dataset Shift

    Jun 30, 2026Karim MardhaniBayesian Neural NetworksDistribution Shift Robustness

    University of Colorado Boulder Boulder, CO, USA

  10. Teaching LLMs to Recommend and Defer in Underrepresented Epilepsy Care

    Jun 30, 2026Shreyas Rajesh, Kartik Sharma, Tonmoy Monsoor +8Prompt LearningSelective Prediction

    Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles · Makerere University · St. Francis Hospital Nsambya +1

  11. Know Before You Fetch: Calibrated Retrieval-Budget Allocation for Retrieval-Augmented Generation

    Jun 29, 2026Zhe Dong, Fang Qin, Manish Shah +1Retrieval-Augmented GenerationSelective Prediction

    University of Maine at Presque Isle · Stanford University · Independent Researcher

  12. Budgeted Act-or-Defer Multi-Agent LLM Deliberation with Local Reliability Bounds

    Jun 28, 2026Mengdie Flora Wang, Haochen Xie, Guanghui Wang +2AI Agent ReliabilityMulti-Agent LLM Systems

    1AWS Generative AI Innovation Center, USA · General Motors (GM), USA

  13. HKVLM: Faithful Query--Region Binding for Frozen-Detector Visual Grounding

    Jun 27, 2026Bo MaSelective PredictionCross-Modal Alignment

    Auckland University of Technology

  14. Risk-Aware Selective Multimodal Driver Monitoring with Driver-State World Modeling

    Jun 25, 2026Daosheng Qiu, Haozhuang Chi, Hao Su +4Selective PredictionWorld Models

    Hubei University, Wuhan, China · Nanyang Technological University, Singapore · Osaka University, Osaka, Japan

  15. Beyond Logprobs: A Multi-Signal Confidence Engine for LLM-Based Document Field Extraction

    Jun 23, 2026Nitesh KumarSelective PredictionDocument Information Extraction

    1Perfios Software Solutions Pvt. Ltd.

  16. Selective Time Series Forecasting via Metalearning

    Jun 22, 2026Ricardo Inácio, Vitor Cerqueira, Marília Barandas +1Selective PredictionTime Series Forecasting

    Faculdade de Engenharia da Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal · University of Coimbra, Portugal · Fraunhofer Portugal AICOS, Portugal

  17. Interpretable Uncertainty Routing Separating Emotion Ambiguity from Distribution Shift in Facial Expression Recognition

    Jun 21, 2026Keito Inoshita, Takato UenoUncertainty QuantificationSelective Prediction

    Faculty of Business and Commerce, Kansai University, Suita, Japan · Data Science and AI Innovation Research Promotion Center, Shiga University, Hikone, Japan · Graduate School of Data Science, Shiga University, Hikone, Japan

  18. The Score Granularity Gap in Black-Box LLM Classification: A Comparative Study of Confidence Constructions

    Jun 20, 2026Ao Sun, Tian Sun, Jiaxing GengLLM EvaluationSelective Prediction

  19. Rejections Based on Predictive Uncertainty Enable Reliable Routine Soil Spectroscopy

    Jun 19, 2026Jonas Schmidinger, Robin Gebbers, Marc-Olivier Gasser +3Uncertainty QuantificationSelective Prediction

    Joint Lab Artificial Intelligence and Data Science, Osnabrück University, Osnabrück, Germany. · Department of Agromechatronics, Leibniz Institute for Agricultural Engineering and Bioeconomy (ATB), Potsdam, Germany. · Research and Development Institute for the Agri-environment (IRDA), Qu´ebec City, Canada. +1

  20. GroundControl: Anticipating Navigation Failures in Vision-Language Agents via Trajectory-Consistent Uncertainty Estimates

    Jun 18, 2026Nastaran Darabi, Divake Kumar, Sina Tayebati +2Uncertainty Estimation for VLA ModelsSelective Prediction

    University of Illinois at Chicago (UIC)

  21. Confidence-Aware Automated Assessment of Student-Drawn Scientific Models

    Jun 18, 2026Luyang Fang, Yingchuan Zhang, Jongchan Park +3Selective PredictionVision Transformer

    AI4STEM Education Center, Athens, GA, USA · Department of Statistics, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA

  22. Abstention-Aware Personalized Object Rearrangement via Uncertainty-Guided LLM Assistance

    Jun 15, 2026Sam Collin, Ali AyubSelective PredictionRobot Task Planning

    Concordia University, Montreal, Quebec H3G 1M8, Canada

  23. Look Again Before You Abstain:Budgeted Conformal Evidence Acquisition for Reliable Vision-Language Model

    Jun 15, 2026Jian Xu, Delu Zeng, John Paisley +1Hallucination Detection in VLMsActive Perception

    RIKEN iTHEMS · RIKEN AIP · South China University of Technology +1

  24. Calibrated Triage, Not Autonomy: Confidence Estimation for Medical Vision-Language Models

    Jun 14, 2026Reza Khanmohammadi, Kundan Thind, Mohammad M. GhassemiVLM EvaluationSelective Prediction

    Michigan State University East Lansing, MI, USA · Henry Ford Health Detroit, MI, USA

  25. When Correct Edges Cannot Be Verified: A Provenance Gap in Incomplete KGQA and a Provenance-Favoring Completion Policy

    Jun 14, 2026Yongqi Kang, Yu Fu, Yong ZhaoData ProvenanceSelective Prediction

    Sichuan University

  26. Mitigating Visual Hallucinations in Multimodal Systems through Retrieval-Augmented Reliability-Aware Inference

    Jun 14, 2026Pratheswaran Hariharan, Haiping Xu, Donghui YanProbability CalibrationSelective Prediction

    Computer and Information Science University of Massachusetts, Dartmouth, MA · Mathematics and Data Science University of Massachusetts, Dartmouth, MA

  27. False Sense of Safety in Selective Signal Classification: Auditing Bound Tightness and Exchangeability for Risk Control

    Jun 13, 2026Jingwen Zhou, Mingzhe WangSelective PredictionAnomaly Detection

    Xidian University, Xi’an, China

  28. Capability Minimization as a Safety Primitive: Risk-Aware Causal Gating for Least-Privilege LLM Agents

    Jun 11, 2026Laxmipriya Ganesh Iyer, Rahul Suresh BabuSelective PredictionCausal Inference

    Independent Researcher

  29. Towards Provably Fair Machine Learning: Bayesian Approaches For Consistent and Transparent Predictions

    Jun 10, 2026Owen O'Neill, Fintan CostelloSelective PredictionBayesian Inference

    University College Dublin, Ireland

  30. Density Ridge Selective Prediction for LLM and VLM Hallucination Detection under Calibration Label Scarcity

    Jun 8, 2026Nina I. ShamsiHallucination Detection in VLMsVision-Language Models

    Northeastern University Boston, United States