Shapley Additive Explanations

Follow this topic Ask about this topic

Momentum

4 papers in the last four weeks, level with the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

Jul 6Week of Sep 21

Latest papers 44

Sep 30, 2026cs.AI

Reasoning Externalization for Faithful Large Language Model Narratives of Stock Return Predictions

In finance, interpreting machine learning predictions is essential, yet the numerical outputs of explainable AI can be difficult for non-experts to understand. While large language models (LLMs) can translate these outputs into natural language, they may produce errors when inferring numerical changes and feature relations. We propose an LLM narrative framework for cross-sectional stock return prediction that combines temporal Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) evidence with historical regime analogs. Temporal evidence tracks changes in the normalized global SHAP importance of an XGBoost model over six months. Historical analogs are past periods with similar changes in SHAP importance, their model performance and subsequent market returns are provided as comparative context. Using this framework, we conduct a controlled study of progressive reasoning externalization, sequentially providing raw SHAP sequences, deterministic temporal descriptors, and feature relations. Each generated claim is verified against provenance-linked evidence. Across Qwen3, externalizing numerical and relational reasoning improved evidence faithfulness as well as temporal and relational accuracy. Evidence faithfulness increased from 0.696 to 0.996 for Qwen3-32B-Instruct. While historical analogs did not improve structured automatic faithfulness, they received higher human-rated usefulness scores. These results suggest that externalizing verifiable reasoning enhances narrative faithfulness and that historical context adds interpretive value.

Sujung Kim, Seung Hwan Cho, Sangjin Park +1

Department of Industrial Data Engineering, Hanyang University, Republic of Korea · School of Interdisciplinary Industrial Studies, Hanyang University, Republic of Korea

Large Language Model Forecasting Shapley Additive Explanations Narrative Generation

Sep 23, 2026cs.LG

When Explanations Cannot Be Read: Measuring and Correcting SHAP and LIME Rendering for Right-to-Left Languages

Post hoc explanation methods such as SHAP and LIME are widely used to interpret text classifiers, but their visualizations are mainly designed for left-to-right languages. When applied to right-to-left (RTL) languages such as Urdu, Arabic, Persian, and Hebrew, the attribution values remain mathematically valid, while their visual presentation fails. Tokens appear out of sequence, connected letterforms break apart, and plot layouts do not follow the natural reading direction. This study addresses this gap as a visualization problem rather than a limitation of the explanation methods themselves. We present SHAP-RTL, a rendering layer that corrects reading direction and script shaping in SHAP and LIME visualizations, with per-language font selection, while preserving the original attribution values, feature ordering, and model outputs. The approach is evaluated on Urdu, Arabic, Hebrew, and Persian hate and offensive-language datasets using TF-IDF and logistic regression classifiers. Rendering correctness is measured by an OCR round trip over 200 feature words per language. Default rendering yields character error rates of 0.820 to 0.979, meaning the label no longer carries its token; the common reshape-and-reorder workaround fails for Urdu at 0.998, worse than no correction; and the Matplotlib 3.11.0 text rewrite inverts that workaround, while SHAP-RTL remains correct under both versions. The framework also verbalizes the same attributions as short contextual explanations in the reader's language, constrained to the identified features. Evaluation in this paper concerns rendering correctness; assessment of the generated explanations is left to future work. The study highlights the importance of language-aware visualization in making post hoc explainability more accessible across different writing systems.

Rameesha Zia, Muhammad Shahid Iqbal Malik

School of Computing Sciences, Pak-Austria Fachhochschule, Institute of Applied Sciences and Technology, Haripur 22620, Pakistan

Explainable AI Methods Shapley Additive Explanations Shaping Motion-Language Alignment Optical Character Recognition Visual Representations

Sep 17, 2026cs.LG

Evaluating Explanation Methods by the Predictors They Induce

Explanations of machine learning models are usually judged by criteria that are hard to compare. We propose a simpler test: if an explanation really describes how a model uses its features, it should be possible to rebuild the model's predictions from it. We turn each explanation into a predictor by reading each feature's effect and adding them up, and measure how well that predictor reproduces the model on unseen data. Nothing is fitted, so the score reflects the explanation itself. The test applies to any explanation that can be written as a function of the features; we demonstrate it on partial dependence plots (PDP), accumulated local effects (ALE), SHAP and LIME. We prove that summing partial dependence curves gives the best possible additive summary of a model when its features are independent, and that this fails when they are dependent. Across 13 real datasets and 9 synthetic designs and four model families, which method scores best depends entirely on feature dependence: where features are independent SHAP is slightly worse than PDP, exactly as the theory predicts; on dependent real data SHAP leads. Some widely used quality metrics even prefer a damaged explanation to an intact one.

Jacob Selbæk, Hugo L. Hammer

Department of Computer Science, Oslo Metropolitan University, Oslo, Norway · Department of Holistic Systems, SimulaMet, Oslo, Norway · Department of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway

Shapley Additive Explanations Explainable AI Methods Model Evaluation Simple

Sep 14, 2026cs.LG

DynSHAP: Towards Explainable Dynamic Survival Analysis

Deep learning models for dynamic survival analysis (DSA) achieve strong predictive performance by incorporating longitudinal patient data, but their black box nature limits clinical trust and adoption. Existing explainability methods cannot handle longitudinal, irregular inputs and functional survival outputs simultaneously, which limits their usability in DSA. We propose DynSHAP, a SHAP framework suited specifically for dynamic survival analysis. It extends common marginal SHAP estimators to this setting by treating time--feature pairs as players in the Shapley game. We further introduce Temporal DynSHAP, which learns linear dependencies in features over time and uses conditional sampling to address them in explanations. When applied to synthetic data with known ground-truth attributions, Temporal DynSHAP recovers temporally dependent features more accurately than marginal estimators for a given state-of-the-art model. Applied to two real-world clinical datasets and two DSA architectures, DynSHAP produces attributions faithful to model learning, allowing medical experts to see which patient information drove the prediction and when.

Nastasya Anokhina, Jonas Jür\ss, Pietro Liò

University of Cambridge

Shapley Additive Explanations Survival Analysis Explainability Temporal Dynamics

Sep 3, 2026cs.AI

A Computationally Feasible Framework for Causal Probabilistic Explanation

Explaining why a specific outcome occurred, and which inputs deserve the blame or credit, is central to philosophical, scientific, and policy analysis. Existing tools split into two camps. The theory of actual causality (AC) gives principled verdicts, but only for toy-sized models, because computing them requires enumerating counterfactual scenarios. Scalable attribution methods like SHAP (or even causal SHAP) at least partially ignore the causal structure that generated the data, and can give answers that conflict with a careful causal analysis. We close this gap with Probabilistic Causal Impact (PCI). PCI builds on actual causality and on Pearl's notions of probability of necessity and sufficiency, but recasts the question of explainability as an estimation problem on a probabilistic causal model that is easily approximated via Monte Carlo. By specifying a distribution over "candidate explanations," a distribution over counterfactual values, and a scoring function, PCI provides tractable, causally grounded, graded explanations, generalizing AC and Pearl's probability of causation as degenerate cases. We evaluate PCI in synthetic and real-world examples, spanning consistency checks with AC, scaling experiments, complex continuous-valued dynamical systems, and a real-world deployed causal machine learning model trained on millions of datapoints.

Rafal Urbaniak, Sam Witty, Daniel Waxman +7

Basis Research Institute · Sorbus AI · Massachusetts Institute of Technology +3

Causal Reasoning Causal Modeling Shapley Additive Explanations Feasibility

Aug 12, 2026cs.AI

CAS: A Causal Attribution Score for Local and Global Explainable Artificial Intelligence

Predictive explanation methods attribute a model output; they do not, by themselves, attribute an intervention effect on the real-world outcome. We introduce the Causal Attribution Score (CAS), a compact score architecture for causal explanation. CAS starts from an identified interventional coalition game, allocates the joint intervention contrast with causal Shapley contributions, and converts those raw outcome-scale effects into Local CAS, Signed Local CAS, and two complementary Global CAS summaries. The innovation is not a new Shapley formula, but a local-to-global causal reporting layer with an explicit intervention target. In the known-truth benchmark, eight repeated primary-interaction simulations (n = 2,200 each, three actions) gave mean Local CAS MAE of 0.107 for coalition-aware CAS, compared with 0.173 for one-at-a-time normalisation and 0.213 for a global normalised absolute ATE vector. The paired advantage over one-at-a-time normalisation increased from -0.003 under additivity to 0.091 under strong interactions. On both empirical DoubleML datasets, 401(k) eligibility/net financial assets (n = 9,915) and Pennsylvania reemployment bonus/unemployment duration (n = 5,099), predictive SHAP/TreeSHAP rankings differed materially from Feature-CAS rankings of treatment-effect modifiers. In Pennsylvania, dep1 (exactly one dependent) moved from predictive global rank 13 to Feature-CAS rank 2 and was the leading local Feature-CAS modifier. These results isolate the added value of separating what predicts the outcome from what explains heterogeneity in an estimated causal effect.

Michael Georgiades, Charalambia Varnava

Department of Computer Science Neapolis University Pafos Cyprus · CaSToRC The Cyprus Institute Nicosia, Cyprus

Shapley Additive Explanations Shapley Value Explainable Artificial Intelligence Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Coalition Formation Scores

Aug 11, 2026cs.LG

RelShap: Relationally Consistent Shapley Explanations

Machine learning pipelines commonly flatten relational data into single-table representations, discarding structural constraints. Widely used Shapley value-based feature attributions then rely on feature independence, evaluating the model on combinations that could never arise in the underlying data, producing misleading explanations. We propose RelShap, a framework that incorporates relational constraints and data provenance into Shapley value computation, restricting both background data and coalition evaluation to relationally valid configurations. The framework is estimator-agnostic and composes with Kernel SHAP, Monte Carlo, and Leverage SHAP without altering their sampling or weighting properties. Functional dependencies further induce equivalence classes over feature coalitions, which RelShap exploits to reduce runtime without changing Shapley values; we provide a combinatorial characterization of the expected speedup. Experiments across multiple datasets, models, and estimators show that RelShap produces explanations that are more faithful to the data-generating process, correctly identifying the dominant feature in controlled settings where existing methods, including Conditional SHAP and ManifoldShap, do not. Our code is available at: https://github.com/duneag2/relshap.

Seungeun Lee, Joao Fonseca, Julia Stoyanovich

New York University, New York, USA · INESC-ID, Lisbon, Portugal

Shapley Additive Explanations Shapley Value Shaping Explainable AI Methods

Aug 11, 2026cs.CR

Dueling Deep Q-Learning for Intrusion Detection

Intrusion detection systems (IDS) and automated systems for detecting and reporting cyber threats, are commonly handled via supervised machine learning methods. Though effective, these models struggle to effectively adapt to new attack types. This study proposes a novel approach by employing a reward-based, dueling Q-learning model for IDS, achieving an average accuracy of 99.68% across multiple attack classes. The proposed model has a dueling network architecture which separates its predictions into value and advantage streams. This has the benefit of improving learning efficiency and stability. The model was trained on the CIC-IDS2018, a benchmark dataset based on real-world intrusion detection scenarios, having multiple attack classes such as DDoS, botnets, and brute-force attacks. Furthermore, Explainable AI (XAI), specifically SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations), was also integrated into the training and evaluation process to provide interpretability into the model's predictions.

Logan Luna, Matthew P. Berkowitz, Laxima Niure Kandel +1

Georgia Institute of Technology · Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Daytona Beach, USA · School of Computer Science, College of Computing, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA +1

Intrusion Detection Deep Q-Networks Q-Learning Shapley Additive Explanations

Aug 5, 2026cs.LG

Evaluating Machine Learning Models for Post-Wildfire Debris-Flow Prediction

Prediction of post-wildfire debris flows is critical for mitigating hazards to communities, infrastructure, and resources during intense rainfall in recently burned areas. However, identifying reliable machine learning models is complicated by overlapping debris-flow and non-debris-flow events in feature space, the need for model interpretability, and limited training data. This paper addresses these challenges through a systematic evaluation of machine learning models in terms of predictive performance, feature importance, and synthetic data augmentation. Using basin-scale observations of post-wildfire debris-flow events across the western United States, we compare 15 models, including the Tabular Prior-Data Fitted Network (TabPFN). Repeated stratified cross-validation shows that TabPFN achieves the highest unaugmented performance with a threat score of 0.637, closely followed by the best tree-based models. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) are used to identify the features driving predictions, revealing that short-duration rainfall intensity and storm accumulation consistently rank highest, while burn severity and terrain features contribute less. We further evaluate synthetic data augmentation using TabPFN-generated samples to address the scarcity of debris-flow observations. Synthetic augmentation improves the performance of all models except CNN, with the largest mean threat score increase of +0.041 among the deep learning models. By combining rigorous model benchmarking, interpretable feature analysis, and synthetic data augmentation, this work provides a comprehensive framework for improving post-wildfire debris-flow prediction.

Quinn Ledingham, Zhengsen Xu, Yimin Zhu +6

Department of Geomatics Engineering, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada

Wildfire Prediction Rainfall Model Evaluation Tabular Prior-Data Fitted Network Shapley Additive Explanations Deep Learning

Aug 2, 2026stat.ML

Model-Agnostic FDR Control via Group Gaussian Mirror and Permutation SHAP

Most FDR-controlled feature selection methods are designed for coordinate-wise hypotheses, where each feature has a single weight or importance score. This abstraction fails in sequential and grouped models, where one original feature is represented by a block of sub-features, such as lags, recurrent states, or attention-based interactions. We propose a grouped-feature FDR control framework for such settings. For grouped linear models, we construct null-symmetric block-level mirror statistics with matrix-valued perturbations. For neural sequential models, we combine Permutation SHAP derivatives as model-agnostic block-level importance scores with kernel-based dependence measure. The framework is model-agnostic across network architectures, does not require specifying the covariate distribution, and reduces to Gaussian Mirror or Neural Gaussian Mirror when the block size is one. We prove FDR control for low- and high-dimensional grouped linear models and asymptotic symmetry of smoothed Permutation SHAP derivatives under fixed fitted nonlinear models. Experiments on simulated and real-world datasets show reliable FDR control and improved power under correlated grouped-feature signals.

Jiaan Han, Junxiao Chen, Yanzhe Fu

Columbia Business School Columbia University · Department of Statistics University of Hong Kong

Feature Importance False Discovery Rate Shapley Additive Explanations Importance Gaussian Primitives

Aug 2, 2026cs.LG

Interpretable machine learning for predicting splitting strength of asphalt concrete: insights from SHAP analysis

This paper presents an interpretable machine-learning framework for predicting the splitting strength (ST) of asphalt concrete and supporting data-driven mixture design. A database consisting of 296 samples was established, and 14 input variables related to asphalt properties, aggregate gradation, and fiber characteristics were selected for modeling. Six machine-learning models, namely TabPFN, ANN, SVR, RF, XGBoost, and LightGBM, were developed and compared. Hyperparameter optimization was performed for five models using NSGA-II, while TabPFN was directly applied with its default configuration. The results show that all six models achieved satisfactory predictive capability, whereas TabPFN delivered the best overall performance on the testing set, with the lowest RMSE of 0.28, MAE of 0.21, MAPE of 18.01%, MAD of 0.14, the highest R^2 of 0.88, and the highest composite score of 0.91. SHAP analysis further revealed that nine dominant variables accounted for 92.0% of the total average contribution, among which Ag9.5, FT, Ag4.75, AC, and Du were the most influential. In addition, favorable parameter ranges for improving ST were quantified, such as Ag9.5 < 66.8%, Ag4.75 < 45.0%, AC < 5.4 wt.%, AV < 3.6%, and Du > 134.7 cm. Finally, a GUI platform integrating prediction and SHAP-based explanation was developed to improve the accessibility and practical applicability of the proposed framework.

Jianglei Xing, Xiao Tan, Dongzhao Jin +3

College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210024, China · State Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210024, China · Department of Civil, Environmental, and Geospatial Engineering, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, Michigan, 49931, United States +3

Shapley Additive Explanations Pavement

Jul 20, 2026cs.LG

Automated Data Engineering and Feature Selection for the Case Study of Warpage Detection in Fused Deposition Modeling

This study contributes toward development of an Automated Data Processing (ADP) framework designed to evaluate and reinforce optimal machine learning model-feature combinations for predictive tasks in fused deposition modeling (FDM) process datasets. The methodology is centered around a reinforcement learning-inspired policy updating mechanism, where multiple machine learning models are trained on both full feature sets and feature subsets selected through Shapley-based Explainable AI (SHAP XAI) across 217 datasets. At each episode, the framework assesses the predictive accuracy and F1-scores of each model-feature pair, computes a scalar reward, and updates

Q

values to guide future model selection. SHAP XAI feature importance was employed to generate reduced yet informative feature subsets to enable the framework to explore performance with dimensionality. The policy was shown to evolve over multiple episodes, with reward distributions used to visualize performance stability. Overall, results indicate that leveraging the ADP framework through XAI algorithms successfully converges toward optimal model-feature configurations with improved accuracy and stability. Specifically, the proposed framework improves the test-set AUC from 0.9248 to 0.9731 and increases the mean reward value by more than fifty percent compared with the baseline full-feature configuration.

Saleh Valizadeh Sotubadi, Nazanin Mahjourian, Vinh Nguyen

Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Michigan Technological University, 1400 Townsend Drive, Houghton, 49931, MI, USA.

Feature Selection Shapley Additive Explanations Learning Policy

Jul 19, 2026cs.LG

Interpretable Machine Learning for Air Pollution and Respiratory Health Prediction: A Socioeconomic Subgroup Analysis

Air pollution and climate-related stressors are increasingly important concerns for respiratory health, especially in settings with unequal environmental exposure and healthcare capacity. This study evaluates an interpretable machine learning framework for predicting respiratory disease rates and air-quality status using structured country-level weekly data. Two supervised learning tasks were considered: regression of respiratory disease rate per 100,000 population and binary classification of air-quality status. Nine regression models and nine classification models were compared using nested cross-validation. Model interpretation was conducted using SHAP values, and subgroup analysis was performed across income levels and geographic regions. The results showed that PM2.5 concentration was the dominant predictor of respiratory disease rate, with linear and regularized linear models achieving the strongest regression performance. For air-quality classification, models achieved high balanced accuracy when PM2.5 was included, but performance decreased substantially when PM2.5 was removed, indicating strong dependence on pollutant-related information. SHAP analysis showed that, without PM2.5, socioeconomic and meteorological variables such as GDP per capita, precipitation, and healthcare access became more influential. Subgroup analysis showed similar aggregate regression error across income groups, but PM2.5 contributed more strongly to predictions in lower-middle-income countries. These results show that model accuracy alone is not sufficient for climate-health prediction. Interpretable models can help identify dominant pollution-related signals, test whether results depend on key pollutant variables, and show whether prediction patterns differ across socioeconomic groups.

Maede Azani Hassan Abadi, Shouyi Wang

Department of Industrial, Manufacturing, & Systems Engineering, The University of Texas at Arlington

Air Pollution Respiratory Sound Classification Shapley Additive Explanations Demographics

Jul 16, 2026cs.AI

Explaining Process Control Optimisation Recommendations via GradientSHAP and Implicit Differentiation

Automated optimisation is increasingly adopted in industrial processes, yet a trust gap persists between engineers who design these algorithms and operators who must act on their recommendations. Explainable AI methods like SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) have transformed interpretability for machine learning predictions; optimisation outputs could benefit from similar techniques. We present an approach that integrates Implicit Function Theorem (IFT) based sensitivity analysis with SHAP attribution and narrative generation via Large Language Models (LLM), producing explanations tailored for operators. Our approach leverages IFT to compute exact parameter sensitivities

\partial p^*/\partial x

from the optimality conditions, enabling efficient GradientSHAP computation. For an industrial High Pressure Grinding Roll (HPGR) control optimisation problem with 22 features, we achieve equivalent SHAP attributions (correlation

>

0.99 with KernelSHAP) with over 40

\times

speedup, enabling real-time natural language explanations. We validate on industrial scenarios and present feedback from domain experts on generated explanations.

Paul Darm, Cem Alpturk, Kenneth Ulrich +3

University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom · Weir, Malmö, Sweden · Weir, Glasgow, United Kingdom

Shapley Additive Explanations Prompt Optimization Robust Optimization Industrial Implicit Differentiation Narrative Generation

Jul 15, 2026cs.LG

Local Additive Feature Attribution: A Mathematical Taxonomy and Reporting Checklist

Feature-attribution methods are central to explainable artificial intelligence. Their assumptions are expressed in several mathematical languages: cooperative-game values, path integrals, gradient operators, perturbation distributions, and backpropagation rules. This survey proposes a common framework for local additive feature attribution. It organizes Shapley, path-based, gradient/backpropagation, perturbation, and CAM-style methods around five specification choices: value function, reference, path, perturbation distribution, and conservation rule. It then compares these methods through an axiom-by-method matrix and links common failure modes, including baseline sensitivity, off-manifold perturbations, sanity-check failures, adversarial manipulation, and method disagreement, to the assumptions that produce them. Finally, the survey proposes a ten-item reporting checklist for studies that use local additive attributions. The central message is that attribution results are meaningful only relative to the mathematical assumptions under which they are defined, and that those assumptions should be reported.

Rebecca Afriyie Sarpong, Daniel Commey

Shapley Additive Explanations Explainable Artificial Intelligence Contributions Report Taxonomy Backpropagation+1

Jul 6, 2026q-fin.RM

SHARC: SHAP-Based Interpretability in Machine Learning Risk Models for Regulatory Capital under ICAAP and CCAR

The adoption of non-parametric machine learning models for regulatory capital estimation introduces a fundamental governance challenge: the inability to explain model outputs in a manner auditable by supervisory bodies. This 'black box' problem remains a major barrier to the adoption of Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and related ML architectures in ICAAP and CCAR workflows despite their predictive advantages over traditional parametric approaches. This paper addresses this barrier through SHARC (SHAP for Regulatory Capital), an explainability framework for the Hybrid GPR-HS architecture and its stress-testing extension. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), derived from cooperative game theory and satisfying the properties of Local Accuracy, Missingness, Consistency, and Efficiency, are applied to Stressed Value-at-Risk (SVaR) outputs under three macro scenarios: West Asia War, Climate Risk, and AI Bubble/Regulatory Burden. SHARC decomposes SVaR into baseline, mean-driven, and volatility-driven components, enabling transparent linkage between scenario design and capital outcomes. Two findings emerge. First, SHARC consistently links non-linear SVaR outputs to underlying scenario inputs, confirming framework fidelity and providing auditable traceability of capital drivers. Second, under stress conditions, the mean return component (directional loss magnitude) dominates the variance component (volatility baseline) in determining capital levels, with implications for capital limit-setting, position management, and hedging strategy. The results establish SHARC as a regulator-aligned explainability layer that makes the Hybrid GPR-HS framework fully auditable and consistent with FRTB, ICAAP Pillar 2, and CCAR transparency requirements.

Ujjwala Vadrevu

Shapley Additive Explanations Regulation Volatility Transparency Interpretability

Jul 2, 2026cs.LG

Adaptive Group-Based Counterfactual Explanations for Time-Series Rehabilitation Data

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) for multivariate time-series classifiers are often difficult to interpret in domains where experts reason in terms of semantic feature groups rather than individual channels. In rehabilitation movement analysis with multi-sensor inertial measurement units (IMUs), clinicians interpret motion through muscle-group and joint-segment abstractions; yet, most existing counterfactual methods operate at the channel level, producing scattered and biomechanically incoherent explanations. We propose a two-stage framework for group-based counterfactual generation in high-dimensional IMU data. We first show that Shapley-Adaptive (SA) group ranking preserves counterfactual validity but fails to enforce group-level sparsity, motivating the need for explicit group selection. We then introduce Learnable Gate (LG) methods, which incorporate trainable per-group relevance gates jointly optimized with perturbation masks. Experiments on the KneE-PAD rehabilitation dataset demonstrate that LG substantially improves modality-group sparsity compared to the channel-level M-CELS baseline while maintaining or improving validity, temporal smoothness, and generation efficiency. Exercise-specific analyses further show that group-structured counterfactuals yield concise, muscle-level corrective guidance aligned with clinical reasoning. Overall, the proposed framework enhances interpretability without sacrificing counterfactual quality, enabling more actionable explanations for rehabilitation movement analysis.

Emmanuel C. Chukwu, Rianne M. Schouten, Monique Tabak +1

Eindhoven University of Technology Eindhoven, the Netherlands · University of Twente Enschede, the Netherlands

Counterfactual Explanation Rehabilitation Counterfactual Generation Shapley Additive Explanations Explainable AI Methods Inertial Measurement Units+1

Jul 2, 2026cs.AI

Profit-Based Counterfactual Explanations for Product Improvement: A Case Study of Manga Sales in Japan

Counterfactual explanation (CE) is widely used to enhance the interpretability of machine learning models and support data-driven decision-making based on model predictions. However, existing CE methods typically require two exogenously specified inputs: a desired output value (target) and a distance function that quantifies changes in explanatory variables. In regression settings, neither the validity of target specification nor the practical interpretation of the distance metric has been sufficiently addressed. Furthermore, most existing CE methods focus on altering predictions rather than optimizing a decision objective, even though real-world decision-making often requires explicit objective maximization. To address these limitations, we formulate CE as a profit maximization problem in management and marketing contexts and propose a framework termed profit-based counterfactual explanation (PBCE). PBCE eliminates the need for exogenous target specification by directly maximizing profit as the primary optimization objective. Concurrently, the distance term is reinterpreted as the cost of modifying product attributes, providing a clear and economically grounded interpretation.

Keita Kinjo, Takeshi Ebina

Faculty of Business Studies, Kyoritsu Women’s University, 2-2-1, Hitotsubashi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 101-8437, Japan · School of Commerce, Meiji University, 1-1, Kanda-surugadai, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 101-8301, Japan

Counterfactual Explanation Shapley Additive Explanations Objective Functions Causal Inferences Data-Driven Improvement+2

Jul 1, 2026q-fin.CP

Shapley in Context: Explaining Financial Language with Domain Expertise

In recent years, large language models have achieved remarkable success and have seen growing adoption in financial applications. At the same time, explainability remains critical in finance, a domain characterized by high stakes and strict regulatory requirements. Although numerous methods have been proposed to explain black box machine learning models, the majority of these approaches are designed for general purpose tasks and do not incorporate domain specific knowledge. In this work, we study the explainability of financial textual data modeled by large language models through the lens of the Shapley value. Specifically, we investigate whether Shapley based attributions align with established financial domain knowledge. Through rigorous theoretical analysis and extensive empirical evaluations, we demonstrate that Shapley values can yield explanations that are consistent with financial reasoning and can offer meaningful insights into the model's behavior in text based financial applications.

Dangxing Chen, Pengzhan Guo

Zu Chongzhi Center, Duke Kunshan University, Kunshan, Jiangsu, CN · Digital Innovation Research Center, Duke Kunshan University, Kunshan, Jiangsu, CN

Shapley Additive Explanations Explainability Financial Question Answering Shapley Value

Jun 29, 2026cs.LG

Decision-Value Attribution in Predict-then-Optimize Systems

Predictive models are increasingly embedded in operational decision-making, yet standard explanation methods typically explain forecasts rather than the decisions those forecasts induce. This distinction is important in predict-then-optimize systems: large forecast changes may leave the optimizer's action unchanged, while small changes can alter the selected decision and its realized value. We propose Decision Value Attribution (DVA), a Shapley-based framework for attributing the value of a fixed prediction--optimization pipeline. The framework defines cooperative games whose payoff is the downstream decision value, allowing the players to be information sources, optimization or design parameters, or both. We present three variants: InfoDVA attributes value to features, DesignDVA attributes value to operational configurations, and Decision-Value Interactions (DVI) quantifies how information and design jointly create value. We further distinguish post-DVA, which evaluates decisions using realized outcomes, from pre-DVA, which evaluates decisions under the model's full prediction. This separation turns attribution into a decision-level diagnostic of whether the model's operational beliefs align with realized performance. The resulting attributions are expressed in the units of the operational objective and decompose the gain or loss relative to a baseline. Case studies in electricity storage arbitrage and emergency medical service coverage show that predictive explanations can be poor proxies for operational value, that DVA can guide targeted information-control interventions, and that optimization configurations determine when predictive information is decision-relevant.

Konstantinos Ziliaskopoulos, Alexander Vinel, Alice E. Smith

Auburn University, Industrial & Systems Engineering, 36849, Auburn, AL, USA · University of Alabama, Mechanical Engineering & Computer Science, 35487, Tuscaloosa, AL, USA

Shapley Additive Explanations

Jun 26, 2026cs.LG

OperatorSHAP: Fast and Accurate Shapley Value Estimation for Neural Operators

Understanding model predictions is essential for physical applications, where outputs often inform safety-critical decisions, such as structural load assessment, weather warnings, and clinical diagnosis. Shapley values satisfy many desirable properties as an attribution method, but their computational cost during inference hinders their practical use. Current amortized explainers, such as FastSHAP, are limited to homogeneous inputs, which is problematic for physical applications where data often comes from irregular grids and geometries. We introduce OperatorSHAP, a grid-agnostic attribution method and training procedure that allows us to train FastSHAP-like explainers for neural operators. We establish a theoretical framework for attributions in function space, connecting to Aumann-Shapley values. We further show that OperatorSHAP's explanations are consistent with state-of-the-art discrete Shapley values across resolutions and transfer across grid sizes without retraining.

Joshua Stiller, Santo M. A. R. Thies, Felix Czaja +1

LMU Munich, MCML · LMU Munich · LMU Munich, MCML, DFKI

Shapley Additive Explanations Shapley Value Neural Operators Shaping Explainable AI Methods Value

Jun 22, 2026cs.LG

The Unseen Hand: Manipulating Model Fairness and SHAP with Targeted Identity Re-Association Attacks

As machine learning models grow more influential and opaque, algorithmic fairness and explainability are critical for ensuring accountability. However, we demonstrate that these auditing mechanisms are themselves vulnerable to subtle manipulation, camouflaging the influence of protected features. While prior work on data-agnostic attacks has exposed this vulnerability, they leave behind detectable artifacts that compromise their stealth. We introduce Targeted Identity Re-Association (TIRA) attacks, a novel family of attacks that iteratively and probabilistically manipulate a model's outputs without requiring access to the model's internals or feature representations. We formalize two algorithms: Probabilistic Micro-Shuffling (PMiS), which applies localized adjacent swaps, and Probabilistic Rank-Shift Micro-Perturbation (PRSMP), which introduces small, randomized rank shifts. We empirically demonstrate that TIRA attacks are highly effective at pushing fairness metrics towards ideal values. Crucially, TIRA attacks successfully confound SHAP-based explanations, leaving effectively zero residual attribution for protected features, a major improvement over prior work.

Sannaan Khan, Muhammad U. S. Khan

National University of AbstractSciences and Technology (NUST)

Fairness Audits Shapley Additive Explanations Algorithmic Fairness Model Auditing Random Rotations Hand

Jun 17, 2026cs.CV

An approach with Visual and Tabular Mamba to multimodal medical data using Mixed Fusion

This article presents a complementary approach for integrating multimodal medical data in cancer classification, based on state space models represented by the Mamba architecture. To this end, a mixed multimodal fusion architecture, called Mixed Fusion, was employed and developed to enhance the interpretability of the decision-making process. The proposed approach explores two variants of Mamba: one dedicated to visual processing, responsible for classifying the lesion image and generating probabilities associated with the target classes, and another focused on tabular processing, which uses these probabilities together with clinical and/or sociodemographic data to produce the final diagnosis. The experiments were conducted on two medical datasets: PAD-UFES-20, composed of clinical images and information associated with skin lesions, and NDB-UFES, consisting of histopathological images and sociodemographic data related to oral cancer. The results indicate slightly lower performance in balanced accuracy, compared with Transformer-based approaches, on PAD-UFES-20, and superior performance on NDB-UFES. Additionally, substantial gains were observed in the recall metric. Furthermore, the adoption of the Mixed Fusion architecture enables the application of the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) method, increasing the interpretability of the results. These findings indicate that Mamba-based models constitute a suitable alternative for multimodal classification in medical data, especially in scenarios in which sensitivity is a relevant requirement.

Matheus B. Rocha, Gustavo B. Dettogni, Renato A. Krohling

Labcin - Nature Inspired Computing Lab, Federal University of Espírito Santo, Vitória, Brazil · PPGI - Graduate Program in Computer Science, Federal University of Espírito Santo, Vitória, Brazil

Multimodal Clinical Data Cancer Detection Mamba-Based Models Mamba Electronic Health Records Shapley Additive Explanations

Jun 17, 2026cs.AI

Analysing drivers and interdependencies in European electricity markets using XAI

Electricity markets are inherently complex systems characterised by strong nonlinearities, high-dimensional interactions, and increasing interdependence across regions. While deep neural networks (DNNs) have demonstrated strong predictive capabilities for electricity prices, their lack of interpretability limits their usefulness for understanding the underlying drivers of price formation. This paper addresses this gap by combining DNN models with explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques to analyse the determinants of electricity prices across 39 European bidding zones. We employ SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to quantify feature contributions and apply and extend SSHAP, an aggregation framework to improve interpretability in high-dimensional settings. The analysis identifies that renewable energy sources, particularly solar, play a disproportionately important role in price formation despite their lower share in total power generation. Gas prices remain a dominant and consistent driver across electricity markets, while interconnections significantly shape price dynamics, highlighting the strong interdependence of European electricity systems. In addition, a synthetic EU-wide electricity market is constructed to explore the counterfactual scenario of a fully integrated market with a single price.

Antoine Pesenti, Aidan O'Sullivan

UCL Energy Institute, University College London, UK

Electricity Markets Shapley Additive Explanations Xai

Jun 16, 2026cs.LG

P $^2$ CE: Model-Agnostic Plausible Pareto-Optimal Counterfactual Explanations

The increasing use of machine learning algorithms in social applications has raised concerns about fairness and transparency, leading to the development of counterfactual explanations. These explanations supports individuals to understand and potentially alter unfavorable decisions in areas such as loan applications, job selections, and more, by providing actionable changes to input features that would lead to a desired outcome. Existing methods often struggle to balance feasibility, plausibility, and computational efficiency. To address this, we introduce P

^2

CE, an algorithm for generating plausible Pareto-optimal counterfactual explanations, offering users a diverse set of optimal trade-offs between different notions of feasibility. P

^2

CE employs an auxiliary isolation forest outlier detector to ensure that explanations are in accordance with the data distribution and leverages SHAP values to obtain optimal results with short computing times, regardless of the underlying model. Our algorithm was empirically evaluated on three datasets, demonstrating superior performance in terms of both solution quality and computational efficiency compared to related techniques.

Arthur Hendricks Mendes de Oliveira, Giovani Valdrighi, Marcos Medeiros Raimundo

Instituto de Computa¸c˜ao, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Albert Einstein Avenue, Campinas, 13083-889, S˜ao Paulo, Brazil.

Counterfactual Explanation Shapley Additive Explanations Causal Inferences Explainable AI Methods Outliers

Jun 13, 2026cs.AI

Feature Attribution in Directed Acyclic Graphs Using Edge Intervention

Shapley value-based feature attribution methods face challenges in scenarios involving complex feature interactions and causal relationships, even when a causal structure is provided. Existing methods typically adopt a node-centric view, attributing importance solely to individual features. Consequently, they often fail to simultaneously capture the externality and exogenous influence of features, leading to unreasonable interpretations. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel feature attribution method called DAG-SHAP, which is based on edge intervention. DAG-SHAP treats each feature edge as an individual attribution object, ensuring that both externality and exogenous contributions of features are appropriately captured. Additionally, we introduce an approximation method for efficiently computing DAG-SHAP. Extensive experiments on both real and synthetic datasets validate the effectiveness of DAG-SHAP. Our code is available at https://github.com/ZJU-DIVER/DAG-SHAP.

Qiheng Sun, Junxu Liu, Xiaokai Mao +4

The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China · Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China · University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, USA

Shapley Additive Explanations Causal Graph Directed Acyclic Graph Edge

Jun 11, 2026cs.LG

Interpretable Factor Decomposition for Decision Intelligence in Large-Scale Financial Markets: Evidence from China's A-Share Market

We present an interpretable machine learning pipeline to decompose Cross-Sectional Equity Return Predictability into auditable factor contribution. We apply an XGBoost model with TreeSHAP attribution and conduct stress testing on 3632 Chinese A-share stocks from 2009 until 2019. Using 60-month, rolling windows over 55 months of out-of-sample data, XGBoost obtains a mean AUC of 0.547 and +2.38%/month (Newey-West t = 5.94; Annualized Sharpe 2.23) long-short spread for the top vs bottom quintiles. This alpha is persistent after adjusting for the Carhart four-factor model (+2.31%/month; t = 7.48). SHAP Decomposition indicates that behavioral signals (turnover and momentum) account for 58.2% of predictive attribution compared to 10.7% for valuation ratios, on average, across 55 industry groups. Ablation analysis serves to cross-validate this ranking and provides evidence that SHAP and ablation diverge in a manner that highlights feature substitutability structure that is largely invisible to either method used in isolation.

Xiao Han, Yao Xiao, Zhen Zhang +1

Goizueta Business School Emory University Atlanta, GA, USA · College of Computing Georgia Institute of Technology Atlanta, GA, USA · School of Data Science University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia, PA, USA +1

Shapley Additive Explanations Exploratory Factor Analysis Xgboost Model

Jun 9, 2026cs.NI

Generative Explainability for Next-Generation Networks: LLM-Augmented XAI with Mutual Feature Interactions

As artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) models become integral to network operations, their lack of transparency poses a significant barrier to operator trust. Existing explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques often fail to bridge this gap for non-specialists, producing technical outputs that are difficult to translate into actionable insights. This paper presents a framework specifically designed to address this shortcoming. It leverages a moderately sized large language model (LLM) and extends beyond the standard use of SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) feature influence values. The framework employs a structured prompt enriched with mutual feature interaction data to generate human-understandable natural language explanations. To validate our framework, we performed an empirical evaluation on an optical quality of transmission (QoT) estimation use case with human evaluators. We collected independent performance evaluations from specialists, which showed a high inter-evaluator agreement. Compared to a state-of-the-art baseline that uses only SHAP feature influence values in a straightforward prompt, our approach improves the explanation usefulness and scope by 12.2% and 6.2%, while achieving 97.5% correctness.

Kiarash Rezaei, Omran Ayoub, Sebastian Troia +3

Department of Electrical Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology, 412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden · University of Applied Sciences and Arts of Southern Switzerland, 6928 Lugano, Switzerland · Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milan, Italy +1

Explainable Artificial Intelligence Xai Shapley Additive Explanations High-Order Correlations AI Trustworthiness

May 29, 2026cs.LG

Beyond Additive Decompositions: Interpretability Through Separability

Interpretable machine learning requires models that are accurate and structurally faithful to the data. Existing explainability methods rely heavily on additive representations (e.g., Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), functional ANOVA), which can suffer from signal cancellation and off-support extrapolation in the presence of strong interactions. We propose Tensor Separation Learning (TSL), a regression model that learns a sum of rank-1 products of univariate per-feature functions via a stagewise greedy procedure with orthogonal refitting. By enforcing separability, TSL avoids the information loss inherent in additive projections caused by marginalizing higher-order interactions. The learned TSL model can be fully reconstructed from first-order partial dependence functions, up to constant factors. This stage-wise correspondence ensures that the resulting visualizations are faithful to the fitted components. We establish approximation-rate guarantees for functions with bounded mixed

p

-th order partial derivatives and demonstrate that TSL competes with black-box models on regression benchmarks.

Jinyang Liu, Munir Eberhardt Hiabu

Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Denmark.

Shapley Additive Explanations Interpretability Separability High-Order Correlations Generalized Linear Model Basis Decomposition

May 28, 2026cs.CR

XAI-SOH-FL: Enhancing SOH-FL with Adaptive Aggregation and Explainable AI for Intrusion Detection in Heterogeneous IoT

Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) in Internet of Things (IoT) environments face significant challenges due to data heterogeneity, lack of labeled data, and limited model interpretability. Federated Learning (FL) offers a privacy-preserving solution; however, existing approaches such as SOH-FL suffer from two key limitations: reliance on a manually tuned aggregation parameter γ and lack of explainability in model predictions. In this paper, we propose XAI-SOH-FL, an enhanced framework that integrates adaptive aggregation and explainable artificial intelligence into the SOH-FL paradigm. First, we introduce a dynamic γ selection mechanism based on similarity thresholding, enabling the aggregation process to adapt to evolving data distributions. Second, Bayesian Optimization is employed to automatically determine optimal γ values, eliminating the need for manual tuning. Third, SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) is incorporated to provide feature-level interpretability for intrusion detection decisions. Experimental evaluation on the CICIDS2017 dataset demonstrates that the proposed approach achieves an accuracy of 94.12% and an F1-score of 0.92, outperforming the baseline SOH-FL model while converging in fewer communication rounds. Furthermore, SHAP-based analysis reveals that flow-level features such as Flow Duration and Packet Length significantly influence model predictions. These results indicate that XAI-SOH-FL provides an effective balance between accuracy, adaptability, and interpretability in heterogeneous IoT environments.

Ambreen Aslam, Maaz Hassan, Bibi Zahra +1

School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (SEECS), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan

Intrusion Detection Internet Of Thing Federated Learning Explainable Artificial Intelligence Shapley Additive Explanations

May 25, 2026cs.LG

Electricity Consumption Forecasting: An Approach Using Cooperative Ensemble Learning with SHapley Additive exPlanations

Electricity expense management presents significant challenges, as this resource is susceptible to various influencing factors. In universities, the demand for this resource is rapidly growing with institutional expansion and has a significant environmental impact. In this study, the machine learning models long short-term memory (LSTM), random forest (RF), support vector regression (SVR), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) were trained with historical consumption data from the Federal Institute of Paraná (IFPR) over the last seven years and climatic variables to forecast electricity consumption 12 months ahead. Datasets from two campuses were adopted. To improve model performance, feature selection was performed using Shapley additive explanations (SHAP), and hyperparameter optimization was carried out using genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO). The results indicate that the proposed cooperative ensemble learning approach named Weaker Separator Booster (WSB) exhibited the best performance for datasets. Specifically, it achieved an sMAPE of 13.90% and MAE of 1990.87 kWh for the IFPR-Palmas Campus and an sMAPE of 18.72% and MAE of 465.02 kWh for the Coronel Vivida Campus. The SHAP analysis revealed distinct feature importance patterns across the two IFPR campuses. A commonality that emerged was the strong influence of lagged time-series values and a minimal influence of climatic variables.

Eduardo Luiz Alba, Gilson Adamczuk Oliveira, Matheus Henrique Dal Molin Ribeiro +1

Industrial & Systems Engineering Graduate Program (PPGEPS), Federal University of Technology-Parana (UTFPR), Via do Conhecimento, KM 0l—Fraron, Pato Branco 85503-390, PR, Brazil

Electricity Price Forecasting Shapley Additive Explanations Retrieval-Augmented Forecasting Ensemble Climate Particle Swarm Optimization+1

May 22, 2026cs.LG

Verified SHAP: Provable Bounds for Exact Shapley Values of Neural Networks

Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) are widely recognised as computationally intractable for neural networks, since they induce an exponential search space over the input features. In this work, we take a first step towards scaling exact SHAP computation to larger search spaces by introducing an algorithm that leverages recent advances in neural network verification to compute arbitrarily tight exact lower and upper bounds on SHAP values for neural networks, ultimately recovering the exact SHAP values. We demonstrate that our approach scales to orders of magnitude larger search spaces than state-of-the-art exact methods. This provides an important first step towards exact SHAP computation and establishes a principled cornerstone for evaluating statistical approximation methods on larger search spaces.

David Boetius, Shahaf Bassan, Guy Katz +2

University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany · Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel · University of St.Gallen, St.Gallen, Switzerland.

Shapley Value Shapley Additive Explanations Neural Network Verification Neural Network Upper Bounds Approximation+2

May 18, 2026stat.ML

Generalized Functional ANOVA in Closed-Form: A Unified View of Additive Explanations

The functional ANOVA, or Hoeffding decomposition, provides a principled framework for interpretability by decomposing a model prediction into main effects and higher-order interactions. For independent inputs, this classical decomposition is explicit. It is closely connected to SHAP values, generalized additive models, and orthogonal polynomial expansions, and therefore constitutes a fundamental tool for additive explainability. In the more general and realistic dependent setting, however, obtaining a tractable representation and estimating the decomposition from data remain challenging. In this work, we address this problem for continuous inputs. By combining Hilbert space methods with the generalized functional ANOVA, we build an explicit decomposition Riesz Basis allowing to easily compute the decomposition. Our formulation recovers the classical independent case and its associated orthogonal decomposition. Building on this representation, we propose a simple but mighty algorithm to estimate the decomposition from a data sample in a model-agnostic setting and we compare it empirically with several state-of-the-art explanation methods, demonstrating the power of the approach.

Baptiste Ferrere, Nicolas Bousquet, Fabrice Gamboa +1

EDF R&D, SINCLAIR Lab · Université de Toulouse · Sorbonne Université +2

Shapley Additive Explanations Explainability Basis Decomposition Generalized Linear Model Explainable AI Methods Kernel Hilbert Spaces+2

May 14, 2026stat.ML

RoSHAP: A Distributional Framework and Robust Metric for Stable Feature Attribution

Feature attribution analysis is critical for interpreting machine learning models and supporting reliable data-driven decisions. However, feature attribution measures often exhibit stochastic variation: different train--test splits, random seeds, or model-fitting procedures can produce substantially different attribution values and feature rankings. This paper proposes a framework for incorporating stochastic nature of feature attribution and a robust attribution metric, RoSHAP, for stable feature ranking based on the SHAP metric. The proposed framework models the distribution of feature attribution scores and estimates it through bootstrap resampling and kernel density estimation. We show that, under mild regularity conditions, the aggregated feature attribution score is asymptotically Gaussian, which greatly reduces the computational cost of distribution estimation. The RoSHAP summarizes the distribution of SHAP into a robust feature-ranking criterion that simultaneously rewards features that are active, strong, and stable. Through simulations and real-data experiments, the proposed framework and RoSHAP outperform standard single-run attribution measures in identifying signal features. In addition, models built using RoSHAP-selected features achieve predictive performance comparable to full-feature models while using substantially fewer predictors. The proposed RoSHAP approach improves the stability and interpretability of machine learning models, enabling reliable and consistent insights for analysis.

Lanxin Xiang, Liang Shi, Youhui Ye +3

Department of Statistics Virginia Tech · Department of Statistics Virginia Tech Transportation Institute · Department of Computer Science Virginia Tech

Shapley Additive Explanations Model-Based Bootstrap Distributional Information

May 12, 2026cs.LG

A New Technique for AI Explainability using Feature Association Map

Lack of transparency in AI systems poses challenges in critical real-life applications. It is important to be able to explain the decisions of an AI system to ensure trust on the system. Explainable AI (XAI) algorithms play a vital role in achieving this objective. In this paper, we are proposing a new algorithm for Explaining AI systems, FAMeX (Feature Association Map based eXplainability). The proposed algorithm is based on a graph-theoretic formulation of the feature set termed as Feature Association Map (FAM). The foundation of the modelling is based on association between features. The proposed FAMeX algorithm has been found to be better than the competing XAI algorithms - Permutation Feature Importance (PFI) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Experiments conducted with eight benchmark algorithms show that FAMeX is able to gauge feature importance in the context of classification better than the competing algorithms. This definitely shows that FAMeX is a promising algorithm in explaining the predictions from an AI system

Sayantani Ghosh, Amit Kumar Das, Amlan Chakrabarti

1DBS Bank. · Institute of Engineering & Management. · 1,2,3University of Calcutta.

Xai Explainability Feature Importance Shapley Additive Explanations Associations

May 11, 2026cs.LG

Is Data Shapley Not Better than Random in Data Selection? Ask NASH

Data selection studies the problem of identifying high-quality subsets of training data. While some existing works have considered selecting the subset of data with top-

m

Data Shapley or other semivalues as they account for the interaction among every subset of data, other works argue that Data Shapley can sometimes perform ineffectively in practice and select subsets that are no better than random. This raises the questions: (I) Are there certain "Shapley-informative" settings where Data Shapley consistently works well? (II) Can we strategically utilize these settings to select high-quality subsets consistently and efficiently? In this paper, we propose a novel data selection framework, NASH (Non-linear Aggregation of SHapley-informative components), which (I) decomposes the target utility function (e.g., validation accuracy) into simpler, Shapley-informative component functions, and selects data by optimizing an objective that (II) aggregates these components non-linearly. We demonstrate that NASH substantially boosts the effectiveness of Shapley/semivalue-based data selection with minimal additional runtime cost.

Xiao Tian, Jue Fan, Rachael Hwee Ling Sim +3

Department of Computer Science, National University of Singapore, Singapore · Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR), Singapore

Alignment-Aware Selection Shapley Value Shapley Additive Explanations Data Quality Random

May 6, 2026cs.LG

GRALIS: A Unified Canonical Framework for Linear Attribution Methods via Riesz Representation

The main XAI attribution methods for deep neural networks -- GradCAM, SHAP, LIME, Integrated Gradients -- operate on separate theoretical foundations and are not formally comparable. We present GRALIS (Gradient-Riesz Averaged Locally-Integrated Shapley), a mathematical framework establishing a representation theory for attributions: every additive, linear, and continuous attribution functional on L^2(Q,mu) admits a unique canonical representation (Q, w, Delta), proved necessary by the Riesz Representation Theorem. This class encompasses SHAP, IG, LIME and linearized GradCAM, but excludes nonlinear functionals such as standard GradCAM or attention maps. Seven formal theorems provide simultaneous guarantees absent in any individual method: (T1) necessary canonical form; (T2) exact completeness; (T3) Monte Carlo convergence O(1/sqrt(m))+O(1/k); (T4) exact Shapley Interaction Values; (T5) Hoeffding ANOVA decomposition; (T6) Sobol sensitivity generalization; (T7) multi-scale extension (MS-GRALIS) with minimum-variance weights. An algebraic appendix justifies the GRALIS-SIV correspondence via the Mobius transform without circularity. GRALIS satisfies 13.5/14 axiomatic properties vs. 2.5-6/14 for individual methods, including completeness, sensitivity, locality, order-k interactions and optimal multi-scale aggregation simultaneously. Preliminary validation on BreaKHis (1,187 histology images, DenseNet-121) reports deletion faithfulness AUC +0.015 (malignant), 96% class-conditional consistency, SAL = 0.762+/-0.109 and sparsity index 0.39. Extended comparison with baseline XAI methods is planned for a companion paper.

Raimondo Fanale

Universitas Mercatorum, Rome, Italy.

Shapley Additive Explanations Gradient-Weighted Class Activation Mapping Shapley Value Gradient Representation Space Unified Framework

May 6, 2026cs.LG

Social Determinants of Health and Fentanyl Overdose Mortality Across US Counties: An XGBoost and SHAP Analysis Identifying Silent Risk Counties and Treatment Deserts

Background: Fentanyl overdose deaths are still increasing across the U.S. We do not fully understand which county-level social and structural conditions lead to higher overdose death rates. Social determinants of health, including disability, treatment access, and behavioral health issues, may help identify vulnerable counties before deaths become severe. No earlier study has used explainable machine learning with SHAP attribution on 2022 CDC WONDER data to study treatment access gaps and silent risk counties. Methods: We combined data from four government sources for 975 U.S. counties, including CDC WONDER (2022) overdose mortality data, CDC Social Vulnerability Index (SVI), CDC PLACES health behavior data, and Area Health Resources Files. An XGBoost model was used to predict overdose mortality risk using Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR). Five-fold cross-validation was used to test model accuracy, and SHAP values were used to show which factors increase or decrease risk. Results: XGBoost outperformed all tested models (Spearman rho=0.67, R2=0.457, MAE=0.409, high-risk recall=71.1%). Top predictors were disability rate, hypertension, smoking, and lack of vehicle access. Treatment desert counties had 52.6% higher overdose mortality (SMR 1.786 vs 1.170; p<0.0001). K-means identified 143 silent risk counties. Overdose deaths were spatially clustered (Moran's I=0.505, p=0.001) with 75 hotspots and 136 coldspots. Suppressed counties were 58.2% of WONDER counties, mostly rural (72%) and treatment deserts (65%). Conclusions: County-level SDOH factors predict overdose deaths, especially disability, treatment access, and behavioral health burden. MOUD expansion should prioritize treatment desert counties, and silent risk counties need early intervention before mortality worsens.

Kabi Raj Tiruwa, Abhisan Ghimire, Anuj Kumar Shah

Clark University · Clark University, 910 Main St, Worcester, 01610, MA, USA. · Yeshiva University +1

Shapley Additive Explanations

May 6, 2026cs.LG

Physiologically Grounded Driver Behavior Classification: SHAP-Driven Elite Feature Selection and Hybrid Gradient Boosting for Multimodal Physiological Signals

An interpretable and scalable framework for decoding driving behaviors from multimodal physiological signals is proposed in this study. We utilize multimodal physiological driving behavior large-scale dataset comprising synchronized electroencephalogram (EEG), electromyography (EMG), and galvanic skin response (GSR) signals. Our approach involves rigorous preprocessing followed by a domain-specific feature extraction pipeline targeting time-domain, frequency-domain, and derived physiological indices. To address high dimensionality, we employ SHAP-based elite feature selection, retaining the top 250 features to reduce computational overhead while preserving predictive power. Hyperparameter optimization for extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) models is conducted using Bayesian optimization via Optuna. Finally, a weighted soft-voting ensemble is constructed to leverage the complementary strengths of both gradient boosting frameworks. The results demonstrate that the proposed ensemble achieves a test accuracy of 80.91% and a macro-F1 score of 0.79, significantly outperforming single-modality baselines and traditional machine learning models. Ablation studies confirm an 8% performance gain over the best single modality (EEG), validating the necessity of multimodal fusion. SHAP analysis further validates the physiological plausibility of the model, revealing that the EEG contributes the majority of predictive weight, GSR and EMG features provide critical discriminatory signals for high-arousal and motor-intensive maneuvers.

Sahar Askari, Mohammad Mahdi Mirza Ali Mohammadi, Fatemeh Ensafdoust +2

Department of Computer Science and Engineering Shiraz University Shiraz, Iran · Department of Electrical Engineering Iran University of Science and Technology Tehran, Iran · Department of Computer Engineering Islamic Azad University, Rasht Branch Rasht, Iran +2

Physiological Signals Surface Electromyography Feature Selection Shapley Additive Explanations Advanced Jet Trainer

May 6, 2026cs.LG

Quadrature-TreeSHAP: Depth-Independent TreeSHAP and Shapley Interactions

Shapley values are a standard tool for explaining predictions of tree ensembles, with Path-Dependent SHAP being the most widely used variant. Despite substantial progress, existing methods still exhibit trade-offs between depth-dependent runtime, numerical stability, and support for higher-order interactions. To address these challenges, we introduce Quadrature-TreeSHAP, a quadrature-based reformulation of Path-Dependent TreeSHAP that is numerically stable, naturally extends to any-order Shapley interaction values and is practically insensitive to tree depth. Our implementation supports both CPU and GPU and is integrated into XGBoost. Our method is based on a weighted-Banzhaf interaction polynomial, which expresses Banzhaf interaction values as expectations under a feature participation probability

p

. Shapley values and any-order interaction values are then recovered by integrating these polynomials over

p

from 0 to 1. We evaluate these integrals using Gauss-Legendre quadrature, and show that, in practice, only 8 fixed quadrature points are sufficient to reach machine precision. In fact, Quadrature-TreeSHAP with 8 fixed points achieves greater numerical stability than TreeSHAP. This fixed-point formulation removes depth dependence from the inner computation and enables efficient SIMD execution. We confirm these advantages empirically. On 12 XGBoost benchmarks, Quadrature-TreeSHAP computes Shapley values 1.06x-10.59x faster than TreeSHAP on CPU and 1.84x-6.95x faster than GPUTreeSHAP on GPU. Shapley pairwise interactions are 3.80x-58.11x faster on CPU, with higher-order interactions achieving speedups of up to 1200x compared to TreeSHAP-IQ.

Ron Wettenstein, Rory Mitchell, Peng Yu

Reichman University, Herzliya, Israel · Nvidia Corporation · Shopify

Shapley Additive Explanations Tree Ensembles Shaping

May 4, 2026cs.LG

Enhancing RL Generalizability in Robotics through SHAP Analysis of Algorithms and Hyperparameters

Despite significant advances in Reinforcement Learning (RL), model performance remains highly sensitive to algorithm and hyperparameter configurations, while generalization gaps across environments complicate real-world deployment. Although prior work has studied RL generalization, the relative contribution of specific configurations to the generalization gap has not been quantitatively decomposed and systematically leveraged for configuration selection. To address this limitation, we propose an explainable framework that evaluates RL performance across robotic environments using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to quantify configuration impacts. We establish a theoretical foundation connecting Shapley values to generalizability, empirically analyze configuration impact patterns, and introduce SHAP-guided configuration selection to enhance generalization. Our results reveal distinct patterns across algorithms and hyperparameters, with consistent configuration impacts across diverse tasks and environments. By applying these insights to configuration selection, we achieve improved RL generalizability and provide actionable guidance for practitioners.

Lingxiao Kong, Cong Yang, Oya Deniz Beyan +1

Fraunhofer Institute for Applied Information Technology FIT, Germany · Soochow University, China · University of Cologne, Germany +1

Shapley Additive Explanations Hyperparameter

Apr 30, 2026cs.LG

Explainable Load Forecasting with Covariate-Informed Time Series Foundation Models

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently emerged as general-purpose forecasting models and show considerable potential for applications in energy systems. However, applications in critical infrastructure like power grids require transparency to ensure trust and reliability and cannot rely on pure black-box models. To enhance the transparency of TSFMs, we propose an efficient algorithm for computing Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) tailored to these models. The proposed approach leverages the flexibility of TSFMs with respect to input context length and provided covariates. This property enables efficient temporal and covariate masking (selectively withholding inputs), allowing for a scalable explanation of model predictions using SHAP. We evaluate two TSFMs - Chronos-2 and TabPFN-TS - on a day-ahead load forecasting task for a transmission system operator (TSO). In a zero-shot setting, both models achieve predictive performance competitive with a Transformer model trained specifically on multiple years of TSO data. The explanations obtained through our proposed approach align with established domain knowledge, particularly as the TSFMs appropriately use weather and calendar information for load prediction. Overall, we demonstrate that TSFMs can serve as transparent and reliable tools for operational energy forecasting.

Matthias Hertel, Alexandra Nikoltchovska, Sebastian Pütz +3

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany

Accurate Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting Time Series Foundation Models Shapley Additive Explanations Time Series Transformer Architectures Transmission

Apr 26, 2026cs.LG

Interpretable Physics-Informed Load Forecasting for U.S. Grid Resilience: SHAP-Guided Ensemble Validation in Hybrid Deep Learning Under Extreme Weather

Accurate short-term electricity load forecasting is a cornerstone of U.S. grid reliability; however, prevailing deep learning models remain opaque, limiting operator trust during extreme weather. A unified, interpretable, physics-informed ensemble framework is proposed, integrating a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) branch for local feature extraction and a Transformer branch for long-range dependency modeling; the branches are fused through a validation-optimized weighted ensemble and regularized by a physics-informed loss derived from the piecewise parabolic temperature-demand relationship of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system. Post-hoc interpretability is provided through SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) with the DeepExplainer backend, yielding global and event-level attributions. Using eight years of ERCOT hourly load data (2018-2025) fused with Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) records from three Texas stations, the framework achieves 713 MW MAE, 812 MW RMSE, and 1.18% MAPE on the test window. For Hampel-flagged extreme events, MAPE falls by 20.7% relative to its Transformer branch and by 40.5% relative to its CNN branch; an ablation confirms that the parabolic and ramp constraints drive a 14.7% RMSE reduction. SHAP analysis reveals a regime shift: temperature dominates under normal operation, whereas wind speed and precipitation become more influential during cold fronts and heatwaves.

Md Abubakkar, Sajib Debnath, Md. Uzzal Mia

Dept. of Computer Science, Midwestern State University, Dallas, TX, USA · O&M Analytics, AES Clean Energy, The AES Corporation, Louisville, CO, USA · Dept. of Information and Communication Engineering, Pabna University of Science and Technology, Bangladesh

Accurate Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting Shapley Additive Explanations Physics-Informed Learning

Apr 18, 2026cs.CL

From Scoring to Explanations: Evaluating SHAP and LLM Rationales for Rubric-based Teaching Quality Assessment

Automated scoring models are increasingly used to assign rubric-based quality ratings to complex language performances, including classroom transcripts, yet they typically provide little insight into why a particular score is produced. We propose a general framework for sentence-level interpretability of rubric-based scoring that combines model-agnostic Shapley-value attributions with rationales generated by large language models (LLMs). Instantiated on the Quality of Feedback dimension of the CLASS framework using the NCTE corpus, the framework enables systematic comparison of fine-tuned pretrained language models (PLMs) and prompted LLMs on both scoring performance and explanation faithfulness. Across 6k annotated transcript segments, fine-tuned PLMs outperform LLMs in prediction accuracy but exhibit label compression toward mid-scale scores. Deletion-based tests show that SHAP identifies sentences that reliably drive model predictions, producing typically larger and more coherent prediction shifts than LLM-generated rationales. Cross-model analyses further reveal that SHAP attributions transfer robustly across architectures, whereas LLM rationales exert limited and inconsistent influence. Overall, the findings demonstrate that SHAP provides more faithful and transferable explanations for rubric-based scoring, and that the proposed framework offers a principled basis for evaluating both scoring models and their explanations in high-stakes educational settings and other rubric-based language assessment tasks.

Ivo Bueno, Babette Bühler, Philipp Stark +5

1Technical University of Munich · 2Munich Center for Machine Learning (MCML) · 3Lund University +3

Rubric-Based Scoring Free-Form Textual Rationales Assessment Interpretability Explainable AI Methods Shapley Additive Explanations+1