Short-Horizon Forecasting

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4 papers in the last four weeks, up 33% on the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

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Calibrating Prediction Timeliness Through Multi-Objective Hyperparameter Optimization for Remaining Useful Life Prediction
Oct 1, 2026Tugrul Cabir Hakyemez, Ener Uras GokhanUseful Life Prediction General Grid Search Framework
Department of Management Information Systems Istanbul Bilgi University Istanbul, Turkey · Beştepe Koleji Ankara, Turkey
CAMOS: Coupled Oscillatory State-Space Model for Multimodal Clinical Time-Series
Sep 30, 2026Maxx Richard Rahman, Mostafa Hammouda, Wolfgang MaassState Space Models Positron Emission Tomography
Saarland University and German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI) Saarbrücken, Germany · Saarland University Saarbrücken, Germany
State Transport Routing for Short-horizon Adaptation in Multi-horizon Photovoltaic Forecasting
Sep 29, 2026Xu Yuqing, Zhou Liguo, Sun Ze +2Energy Forecasting Short-Horizon Forecasting
Huaibei Normal University, China
PDE-OBS: Controlled Evaluation Across Observation Patterns
Sep 29, 2026Ruichen Xu, Siyao Wang, Fang Wan +7Spatiotemporal Fields Short-Horizon Forecasting
Stony Brook University · University of California, Davis · Independent Research +3
Predicting Delayed Train Trajectories on the Dutch Railway Network: Explainable AI Evaluation of Topological, Operational and Weather Features with Tree Based Ensemble Methods
Sep 28, 2026Jia Long Bao, Ali Mohammed Mansoor Alsahag, Seyed Sahand Mohammadi ZiabariShort-Horizon Forecasting Relighting
LLN: Learnable Lens Networks for Parameter-Efficient Long-Horizon Dynamical Prediction
Sep 28, 2026Binbin Yong, Zhao Su, Lan Guo +3Residual Connections Short-Horizon Forecasting
Lanzhou University · Monash University · University of Wollongong
LTV-CTDNet: Compositional Turning Decomposition for Short-Term Turning-Movement Forecasting
Sep 27, 2026Md Atiqur Rahman Mallick, Kamrul Hasan, Robert T. WhiteShort-Horizon Forecasting
Graduate Student, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Tennessee State University, Nashville, TN, 37209 · Assistant Professor, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Tennessee State University, Nashville, TN, 37209 · TSMO Manager Nashville Department of Transportation & Multimodal Infrastructure Nashville, TN 37210
SeeQ: Training Generalist Value Functions for Long-Horizon Robotic Manipulation
Sep 18, 2026Saksham Singh, Zheyuan Hu, Max Sobol Mark +3Robot Policies Robotic Manipulation
Carnegie Mellon University
DriveMotion: A Large-Scale Multi-Source Benchmark for Driver Motion Sequence Modeling and Forecasting
Sep 8, 2026Yuhang Wang, Chuheng Wei, Jingxin Yang +2Human Motion Prediction Naturalistic Driving Data
University of South Florida · Purdue University · Stanford University +1
Quantile-Led Feature Extraction for Multi-Horizon Predictive Maintenance in Industrial Manufacturing Systems
Sep 7, 2026David J Poland, Daniele Ravi, Na HelianPredictive Maintenance Feature Extraction
Department of Computer Science, University of Hertfordshire, College Lane, Hatfield, AL10 9AB, United Kingdom
Dense-Cast: A lightweight ensemble of deep learning architectures for precipitation nowcasting
Aug 6, 2026Gourav Jyoti Kalita, Hidam Kumarjit SinghPrecipitation Nowcasting Rainfall
Department of Electronics and Communication Technology, Gauhati University, Guwahati-781014, Assam, India
Hybrid Machine Learning Framework for Herd-Level Cattle Growth Pattern and Weight Gain Forecasting in Grazing-Based Production Systems
Aug 6, 2026Muhammad Riaz Hasib Hossain, Rafiqul Islam, Shawn R. McGrath +2Short-Horizon Forecasting Precision Agriculture
a School of Computing, Mathematics and Engineering, Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia · b School of Computing, Mathematics and Engineering, Charles Sturt University, Albury, NSW 2640, Australia · c Gulbali Institute for Agriculture, Water and Environment, Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2678, Australia +4
CENTILE: A Telemetry Foundation Model Evaluated by the Decisions It Drives
Aug 3, 2026Zifan Zhang, Zhichao Hou, Tingxiang Ji +1Multivariate Telemetry Data Short-Horizon Forecasting
Department of Computer Science, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA
Temporal-Distance JEPA: Plan-Aware Representation Learning for Latent World Model Predictive Control
Jul 28, 2026Jiaxin Bai, Jiaxuan XiongLow-Latency Latent Planning Video Joint Embedding Predictive Architecture
Hong Kong Baptist University Hong Kong, China
Nipping the Butterfly Effect in the Bud: Self-Output Fine-Tuning for Autoregressive Weather Prediction
Jul 23, 2026Yun-Ye Cai, Hsuan-Tien LinArtificial Intelligence Weather Models Short-Horizon Forecasting
National Taiwan University · Taipei, Taiwan
A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Models for Long and Short-Term Forecasting of the Egyptian Stock Market: A Focus on EGX30
Jul 15, 2026Muhammed Walid, Ahmed El-Naeimy, Hosam Moubarak +1Short-Horizon Forecasting Sri Lanka
Cyber Physical Lab, Department of Computer Science & Engineering · Egypt-Japan University Of Science and Technology, Alexandria, Egypt · Accounting Department +1
Accuracy-Preserving Stability Regularization for Large-Scale Retail Demand Forecasting
Jul 14, 2026Jize Li, Jiani He, Dishu Yang +3Short-Horizon Forecasting Regularization
Boston University, Boston, MA, USA · Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA · Northeastern University, San Jose, CA, USA +3
High-level spatial Dubins airplane-based reference smoothing with low-level geometric tracking for quadrotor control
Jul 13, 2026Mogens PlessenQuadrotor Aerial Navigation
Findklein GmbH, Switzerland
RhyMix: A Lightweight Adaptive Multi-Rhythm Network for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting
Jul 9, 2026Sumit Satishrao Shevtekar, Chandresh Kumar MauryaShort-Horizon Forecasting Temporal Convolutional Networks
NEST: Tackling Dataset-Level Distribution Shifts via Regime-Oriented Mixture-of-Experts
Jul 7, 2026Lanhao Li, Bingshu Xie, Lijun Sun +3Mixture-Of-Experts Architectures Distribution Shifts
1Beihang University
CRISP: A Spatiotemporal Camera-Radar Backbone for Driving via Forecasting-Based World-Model Pretraining
Jul 5, 2026Jingyu Song, Yi Liu, Katherine A. SkinnerAutonomous Driving Spatio-Temporal Transformers
Department of Robotics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA
AutoSpeed: Annotation-Free Stage-Adaptive Motion Speed Learning for Robot Manipulation
Jul 1, 2026Qingda Hu, Ziheng Qiu, Jieru Zhao +2Visuomotor Policy Robotic Manipulation
College of Intelligent Robotics and Advanced Manufacturing, Fudan University, Shanghai, China · School of Computing, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
A Comparative Study of Deep Learning Architectures for Multi-Horizon Behavioural Forecasting for Mobile Health
Jun 12, 2026Pavlos Nicolaou, Kleanthis Malialis, Artemis Kontou +1Forecasting Backbone Short-Horizon Forecasting
KIOS Research and Innovation Center of Excellence · Department of Computer Science University of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus
Effects of Social Interactions in Self-Organising Railway Traffic Management
Jun 11, 2026Fabio Oddi, Federico Naldini, Leo D'Amato +3Intelligent Transportation Short-Horizon Forecasting
Institute for Cognitive Sciences and Technologies, CNR, Via Giandomenico Romagnosi 18A, 00196, Rome, Italy · Dipartimento di Ingegneria Informatica, Automatica e Gestionale, La Sapienza Universit´a di Roma, Via Ariosto 25, 00185, Rome, Italy · Univ. Gustave Eiffel, COSYS-ESTAS, F-59650 Villeneuve d’Ascq, France +1
Dynamic Execution Horizon Prediction for Chunk-based Robot Policies
Jun 9, 2026Yuchi Zhao, Miroslav Bogdanovic, Arjun Sohal +5Action Chunks Long-Horizon Manipulation
Department of Computer Science, University of Toronto, 40 St George St., Toronto, ON M5S 2E4, Canada · Vector Institute for Artificial Intelligence, W1140-108 College St., Schwartz Reisman Innovation Campus, Toronto, ON M5G 0C6, Canada · Acceleration Consortium, 700 University Ave., Toronto, ON M7A 2S4, Canada +7
Metric-Aware Hybrid Forecasting for the CTF4Science Lorenz Challenge
Jun 2, 2026Cen LuShort-Horizon Forecasting Chaos
EPFL & Idiap Research Institute · Switzerland
Stabilizing distribution-free probabilistic forecasts
May 27, 2026Jente Van Belle, Honglin Wen, Wouter Verbeke +1Probabilistic Forecasting Short-Horizon Forecasting
Faculty of Economics and Business, KU Leuven, Belgium · Department of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, China · Dyson School of Design Engineering, Imperial College London, United Kingdom +3
Semigroup Consistency as a Diagnostic for Learned Physics Simulators
May 25, 2026Lennon J. ShikhmanPhysics Simulation Short-Horizon Forecasting
Georgia Institute of Technology
Learning Long-Term Temporal Dependencies in Photovoltaic Power Output Prediction Through Multi-Horizon Forecasting
May 18, 2026Sumit Laha, Ankit Sharma, Hassan ForooshEnergy Forecasting Photovoltaic
Department of Computer Science University of Central Florida Orlando, Florida, United States.
MambaRain: Multi-Scale Mamba-Attention Framework for 0-3 Hour Precipitation Nowcasting
May 14, 2026Chunlei Shi, Cui Wu, Xiang Xu +10Precipitation Nowcasting Rainfall
School of Automation, Southeast University · Nanjing XinDa Institute of Meteorological Science and Technology · Beijing Leninainfo Technology Co., Ltd. +5
ECTO: Exogenous-Conditioned Temporal Operator for Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting
May 12, 2026Cao Yuan, Junjun WangOffshore Wind Turbine Short-Horizon Forecasting
Wuhan Polytechnic University, Wuhan, 430048, Hubei, China
ChaosNetBench: Benchmarking Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks on Chaotic Lattice Dynamics
May 10, 2026Henok Tenaw Moges, Charalampos Skokos, Deshendran MoodleyTemporal Graph Neural Networks Chaos
Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research (CAIR) University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa · Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos Group, Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
Predictive but Not Plannable: RC-aux for Latent World Models
May 8, 2026Wenyuan Li, Guang Li, Keisuke Maeda +2Latent World Models World Models
Hokkaido University
Liquid Neural Network Models for Natural Gas Spot Price Time-Series Forecasting
Apr 24, 2026Yiqian Liu, Jiayi Niu, Adam Kelleher +1Electricity Price Forecasting Short-Horizon Forecasting
Department of Data Science, Columbia University New York, NY, USA
Walrus: A Cross-Domain Foundation Model for Continuum Dynamics
Nov 19, 2025Michael McCabe, Payel Mukhopadhyay, Tanya Marwah +22Wireless Foundation Models Foundation Model
Polymathic AI · Flatiron Institute · New York University +9
Spatio-Temporal Partial Sensing Forecast for Long-term Traffic
Aug 2, 2024Zibo Liu, Zhe Jiang, Zelin Xu +5Accurate Traffic Forecasting Spatio-Temporal Forecasting
Department of Computer & Information Science & Engineering, University of Florida · Department of Computer Science, University of Kentucky

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Calibrating Prediction Timeliness Through Multi-Objective Hyperparameter Optimization for Remaining Useful Life Prediction

Tugrul Cabir Hakyemez, Ener Uras Gokhan

Department of Management Information Systems Istanbul Bilgi University Istanbul, Turkey · Beştepe Koleji Ankara, Turkey

Useful Life Prediction General Grid Search Framework Multi-Objective Optimization Prognostics Short-Horizon Forecasting

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In predictive maintenance, early and late RUL prediction errors carry asymmetric consequences, yet hyperparameter optimization typically targets a single accuracy metric that treats both directions equally. This study treats the optimization objective itself as a design variable. Five architectures (MLP, LSTM, XGBoost, TCN, and Transformer) are evaluated under three regimes: single-objective maximization of

R^2

, single-objective minimization of the NASA scoring function, and a multi-objective formulation that jointly optimizes both criteria. The multi-objective search employs NSGA-II with Entropy-CRITIC weighting for Pareto selection. Seventy-five model-dataset-strategy combinations are assessed on the NASA C-MAPSS turbofan and BackBlaze hard-disk drive benchmarks. On C-MAPSS, all strategies achieve comparable accuracy (

R^2 \approx 0.89

), yet multi-objective optimization reduces directional imbalance by approximately 33%, improving calibration of early versus late predictions. Model rankings prove configuration-dependent, with simpler architectures frequently outperforming deeper temporal models. On BackBlaze, the objectives shift from complementary to conflicting, producing divergent Entropy-CRITIC weights and a substantial generalization gap (best

R^2 \approx 0.34

). These results demonstrate that the optimization objective materially shapes prognostic behavior and that multi-objective search provides a practical mechanism for calibrating prediction timeliness in RUL modeling.

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