Short-Horizon Forecasting

Follow this topic Ask about this topic

Momentum

4 papers in the last four weeks, up 33% on the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

Jul 6Week of Sep 21

Latest papers 36

Oct 1, 2026cs.LG

Calibrating Prediction Timeliness Through Multi-Objective Hyperparameter Optimization for Remaining Useful Life Prediction

In predictive maintenance, early and late RUL prediction errors carry asymmetric consequences, yet hyperparameter optimization typically targets a single accuracy metric that treats both directions equally. This study treats the optimization objective itself as a design variable. Five architectures (MLP, LSTM, XGBoost, TCN, and Transformer) are evaluated under three regimes: single-objective maximization of

R^2

, single-objective minimization of the NASA scoring function, and a multi-objective formulation that jointly optimizes both criteria. The multi-objective search employs NSGA-II with Entropy-CRITIC weighting for Pareto selection. Seventy-five model-dataset-strategy combinations are assessed on the NASA C-MAPSS turbofan and BackBlaze hard-disk drive benchmarks. On C-MAPSS, all strategies achieve comparable accuracy (

R^2 \approx 0.89

), yet multi-objective optimization reduces directional imbalance by approximately 33%, improving calibration of early versus late predictions. Model rankings prove configuration-dependent, with simpler architectures frequently outperforming deeper temporal models. On BackBlaze, the objectives shift from complementary to conflicting, producing divergent Entropy-CRITIC weights and a substantial generalization gap (best

R^2 \approx 0.34

). These results demonstrate that the optimization objective materially shapes prognostic behavior and that multi-objective search provides a practical mechanism for calibrating prediction timeliness in RUL modeling.

Tugrul Cabir Hakyemez, Ener Uras Gokhan

Department of Management Information Systems Istanbul Bilgi University Istanbul, Turkey · Beştepe Koleji Ankara, Turkey

Useful Life Prediction General Grid Search Framework Multi-Objective Optimization Prognostics Short-Horizon Forecasting

Sep 30, 2026stat.ML

CAMOS: Coupled Oscillatory State-Space Model for Multimodal Clinical Time-Series

Longitudinal clinical cohorts are multimodal, irregularly sampled and pervasively incomplete: in ADNI, positron emission tomography and cerebrospinal fluid assays are absent from roughly half of all visits. Linear state-space models handle irregular sampling gracefully but treat a missing modality by masking the input, leaving the transition operator untouched. We prove that this is a representational limitation: the latent state of any linear state-space layer whose transition operator does not depend on the availability pattern is an additive function of the availability indicators, so no such layer can represent an interaction between two modalities being jointly present or jointly absent. We propose CAMOS, which gives each modality a bank of second-order oscillators coupled through a matrix that sits inside the differential equation and is gated by availability, so the transition operator itself becomes a function of which measurements were taken. Coupling invalidates the analysis of uncoupled oscillatory models, and we restore it: a per-channel Gershgorin budget makes the effective stiffness positive definite uniformly over all

2^M

availability patterns and all gaps, an energy argument charges amplification to availability transitions rather than sequence length, and a channel factorization preserves exact associative parallel scans. On ADNI, CAMOS outperforms uncoupled oscillatory state-space models and clinical fusion models on same-visit staging, landmark prediction and longitudinal forecasting, and under zero-shot transfer to OASIS-3 it is the only model that avoids collapse to the majority class.

Maxx Richard Rahman, Mostafa Hammouda, Wolfgang Maass

Saarland University and German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI) Saarbrücken, Germany · Saarland University Saarbrücken, Germany

State Space Models Positron Emission Tomography Short-Horizon Forecasting Representational Capacity

Sep 29, 2026cs.LG

State Transport Routing for Short-horizon Adaptation in Multi-horizon Photovoltaic Forecasting

Recent power measurements provide valuable information for photovoltaic(PV) power forecasting, but directly extrapolating short-term trends can introduce substantial errors over longer forecast horizons. To address this challenge, we propose state transport routing (STR), a lightweight adapter that refines the predictions of a frozen forecasting model. STR combines the original forecast with two complementary trajectories derived from the latest measured power level and its recent trend. A horizon-conditioned router adjusts their contributions over the first 120 min, while leaving subsequent predictions unchanged. Experiments on four public PV datasets show that STR consistently outperforms a parameter-matched residual adapter. On PVDAQ, the same approach improves five neural forecasting backbones, reducing all-horizon normalized mean absolute error by 0.0201-0.2364 percentage points, with paired 95% confidence intervals excluding zero. No reliable improvement is observed for LightGBM. These findings demonstrate the potential of structured state adaptation to improve short-term forecasting across different neural architectures without retraining the underlying models or altering their longer-horizon predictions.

Xu Yuqing, Zhou Liguo, Sun Ze +2

Huaibei Normal University, China

Energy Forecasting Short-Horizon Forecasting Photovoltaic

Sep 29, 2026cs.LG

PDE-OBS: Controlled Evaluation Across Observation Patterns

Physical-field reconstruction and forecasting depend on both measurement density and spatial layout, yet evaluation under a single observation pattern does not characterize performance when that pattern changes. We introduce PDE-OBS, an integrated benchmarking platform spanning numerical data generation, model training, and inference and evaluation under varying observation conditions. It combines 560,000 fields and trajectories from seven partial differential equation families with configurable observation operators and seven adapted baseline methods for stationary reconstruction and short-horizon forecasting. Separating observation construction from physical records allows users to specify parameterized patterns and deterministic mixtures for training and testing while preserving prediction targets and data splits. The evaluation protocol uses references trained for each test pattern to compare models on identical test observations and targets, alongside equal-count groups for spatial-layout comparisons. On a 14,000-record subset, we evaluate 441 trained models under nine test patterns, yielding 3,969 evaluations. Mean cross-pattern error exceeds mean matched-pattern error in all 49 PDE-method pairs, and this finding persists in a configuration-matched subset of 117 models. Denser test observations do not consistently reduce error for a fixed model. Mixed-pattern training on five completed pairs reduces large single-pattern transfer errors, although destination-trained references usually remain more accurate. Together, the benchmark and findings support systematic evaluation of observation-pattern sensitivity and provide a reusable workflow for developing methods under changing measurement conditions. Code: https://github.com/ru1ch3n/PDE-OBS.

Ruichen Xu, Siyao Wang, Fang Wan +7

Stony Brook University · University of California, Davis · Independent Research +3

Spatiotemporal Fields Short-Horizon Forecasting Model Training

Sep 28, 2026cs.LG

Predicting Delayed Train Trajectories on the Dutch Railway Network: Explainable AI Evaluation of Topological, Operational and Weather Features with Tree Based Ensemble Methods

The reliable prediction of passenger train delays is a critical component of railway management. While contemporary research frequently attempts to maximize absolute accuracy by deploying opaque deep learning architectures, the underlying data mechanics driving longitudinal predictive decay remain underexplored. Consequently, this study provides an explainable temporal robustness analysis of network-wide railway delay prediction. Focusing on the Dutch railway network, this research utilizes interpretable tree-based ensembles to integrate granular topological, environmental, and operational features. The overarching finding establishes that while feature-rich tree-based models improve simultaneous (within-month) prediction, predictive performance systematically degrades when evaluated across non-simultaneous (future) months. Furthermore, multi-horizon SHAP and dispersion analyses explicitly link this degradation to environmental feature volatility and instability within the statistical target definition. Ultimately, this thesis demonstrates that richer feature sets alone are insufficient to resolve long-term forecasting constraints, underscoring the necessity to transition toward dynamic, season-aware architectures anchored by absolute operational boundaries.

Jia Long Bao, Ali Mohammed Mansoor Alsahag, Seyed Sahand Mohammadi Ziabari

Short-Horizon Forecasting Relighting Ensemble Weather Prediction Artificial Intelligence Evaluation Instability

Sep 28, 2026cs.LG

LLN: Learnable Lens Networks for Parameter-Efficient Long-Horizon Dynamical Prediction

Explicit residual connections of the form (x+f(x)), often combined with normalization layers, have become a standard strategy for training very deep neural networks. However, residual addition primarily provides an algebraic shortcut for gradient propagation, while leaving the evolution of feature geometry across layers largely unconstrained. We introduce Learnable Lens Networks (LLN), a physics-inspired architecture that replaces direct feature-space residual accumulation with learnable optical transport in an augmented position-angle phase space. Each layer alternates between free propagation, which provides an implicit transport path, and a learnable lens field that performs nonlinear trajectory transformation and focusing. Theoretically, we establish that LLN transport is globally invertible and volume-preserving for any differentiable lens field, with the implemented coordinate-wise Gaussian transport further satisfying symplecticity. Importantly, these structural constraints do not limit expressivity: with unrestricted embeddings and readouts, LLN retain universal approximation of continuous end-to-end maps. Experiments across diverse dynamical systems demonstrate that LLN improves long-horizon prediction while using substantially fewer parameters than same-depth comparators. Further analysis reveals stable depth-wise gradient transport and interpretable learned dynamics under the coupled propagation and refraction design.

Binbin Yong, Zhao Su, Lan Guo +3

Lanzhou University · Monash University · University of Wollongong

Residual Connections Short-Horizon Forecasting Long-Horizon Task Planning

Sep 27, 2026cs.LG

LTV-CTDNet: Compositional Turning Decomposition for Short-Term Turning-Movement Forecasting

Short-term turning-movement forecasts can support signal control and corridor operations, but unconstrained neural networks may produce physically impossible negative counts or outputs that are not explicitly tied to an approach-demand total. This study introduces the Linear Temporal-Variable Compositional Turning Decomposition Network (LTV-CTDNet), a forecasting framework designed to combine competitive accuracy with structurally admissible outputs. LTV-CTDNet was evaluated using seven months of 15-minute LiDAR observations from eight monitored corridor locations in Nashville, Tennessee. Its lightweight encoder combines recent turning-movement history, weekly time-slot embeddings, and location embeddings. The Compositional Turning Decomposition framework separately predicts nonnegative approach totals and within-approach turning proportions, then reconstructs movement forecasts from these components. Among the evaluated predefined configurations, LTV-CTDNet achieved a movement-level MAE of 1.8189 and RMSE of 3.8072. Its accuracy gains over the strongest sequence models were modest, but it produced no negative forecasts, while unconstrained learned models generated negative values in approximately 10.6% to 29.2% of raw forecast cells. The framework enforces nonnegative outputs and exact agreement between each model-predicted approach total and the sum of its component movements by construction, providing directly interpretable forecasts without clipping or coherence correction.

Md Atiqur Rahman Mallick, Kamrul Hasan, Robert T. White

Graduate Student, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Tennessee State University, Nashville, TN, 37209 · Assistant Professor, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Tennessee State University, Nashville, TN, 37209 · TSMO Manager Nashville Department of Transportation & Multimodal Infrastructure Nashville, TN 37210

Short-Horizon Forecasting

Sep 18, 2026cs.RO

SeeQ: Training Generalist Value Functions for Long-Horizon Robotic Manipulation

Despite rapid progress, generalist robot policies remain brittle on complex, long-horizon tasks that comprise multiple stages or require repeated attempts and deliberation on the same underlying stage before success. Q-value functions can improve these policies by ranking candidate actions or guiding policy improvement, but learning from sparse task-level rewards entails long credit-assignment horizons, difficult Bellman backups, and broad data-coverage requirements. We introduce SeeQ (Subtask-elicited Q-functions), which instead learns Q-values for the currently active subtask. This shortens the value-prediction horizon and enables effective learning with temporal-difference (TD) objectives. During training, subtask-level annotations present in offline robot data provide the decomposition and enable learning from broad, potentially suboptimal robot datasets. To eliminate the need for human annotations or modular subtask prediction systems at test time, our Q-function architecture is trained to autoregressively predict the active subtask in natural language before estimating its value. We instantiate SeeQ using a base vision-language backbone, pretrain it on diverse open-source robot manipulation data, and finetune it on downstream tasks. Across four real-world manipulation tasks on two bimanual robot platforms, the SeeQ value function substantially improves best-of-N policy steering.

Saksham Singh, Zheyuan Hu, Max Sobol Mark +3

Carnegie Mellon University

Robot Policies Robotic Manipulation Value Functions Large-Scale Robot Demonstration Datasets Short-Horizon Forecasting Elicitation

Sep 8, 2026cs.CV

DriveMotion: A Large-Scale Multi-Source Benchmark for Driver Motion Sequence Modeling and Forecasting

Driver motion can provide cues to ongoing behavior, attention, and near-term driving intent. However, most existing driver-centric datasets focus on recognizing predefined driver behaviors from short video clips, while human motion forecasting benchmarks largely target motion outside the vehicle. We introduce DriveMotion, a multi-source benchmark for continuous driver motion forecasting. DriveMotion contains 393 hours of 133-keypoint motion sequences at 10 Hz from 360 drivers, integrating naturalistic driving data, curated public in-cabin videos, and the AIDE dataset into a unified representation with per-joint validity masks and synchronized driving context. Naturalistic driving contains long periods of limited body movement, making uniformly sampled evaluation dominated by persistence and less sensitive to brief but behaviorally meaningful motion. To address this, we use dynamics-anchored evaluation, placing forecasting windows around vehicle maneuvers identified offline from CAN signals without providing CAN to the model at inference. Arm motion in pre-maneuver windows is 3.4x greater than in route-matched stable-driving controls. On these anchored windows, learned models reduce forecasting error over persistence by up to 15%, while maneuver-enriched training improves forecast-derived Part-State F1 by 44% over the zero-motion reference. Training on the full multi-source corpus further reduces forecasting error on held-out web drivers by 38% compared with BATON-only training. DriveMotion provides identity-disjoint splits, fixed evaluation subsets, and reference implementations for reproducible evaluation of continuous driver motion forecasting. The dataset and benchmark are available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/HenryYHW/DriveMotion

Yuhang Wang, Chuheng Wei, Jingxin Yang +2

University of South Florida · Purdue University · Stanford University +1

Human Motion Prediction Naturalistic Driving Data Drives Short-Horizon Forecasting Large-Scale Benchmark Advanced Jet Trainer

Sep 7, 2026cs.AI

Quantile-Led Feature Extraction for Multi-Horizon Predictive Maintenance in Industrial Manufacturing Systems

In data-driven predictive maintenance (PdM), feature extraction is usually treated as fixed preprocessing: a descriptor set is chosen once and reused while the downstream model or forecasting horizon changes. This paper isolates the representation-learning stage and presents a quantile-led feature-extraction framework based on a dual-stage MLP-QRNN hierarchy. QRNN1 learns a broad ten-quantile conditional distribution for each sensor channel, while skip-connected QRNN2 refines a retained mid-tail quantile set into compact, channel-resolved, distribution-aware features. A fixed thirteen-pipeline ablation spans 1-hour, 70-hour, and 30-day regimes across 72 machines in 9 industrial facilities, with the downstream temporal classifier held fixed within each regime. Increasing the retained mid-tail set from two to four quantiles improves 30- and 60-minute F1-score, reaching 75.92% and 72.44% with attention enabled. The results also show that representations do not transfer reliably beyond their design horizon unless feature capacity, temporal embedding, activation strategy, and sensor breadth are scaled with the forecasting task. The unmodified short-horizon extractor falls to 42.90% F1 at 70 hours, whereas horizon-conditioned extractors reach 60.38% at 70 hours and 79.97% at 30 days. The framework therefore supports treating PdM feature extraction as a horizon-dependent representational stage rather than fixed preprocessing.

David J Poland, Daniele Ravi, Na Helian

Department of Computer Science, University of Hertfordshire, College Lane, Hatfield, AL10 9AB, United Kingdom

Predictive Maintenance Feature Extraction Short-Horizon Forecasting Quantile Regression Manufacturing

Aug 6, 2026cs.CV

Dense-Cast: A lightweight ensemble of deep learning architectures for precipitation nowcasting

Proper short-term forecasting of precipitation is crucial in disaster management and preparedness. Nonetheless, the variability and nonlinearity of precipitation make short-term forecasting challenging for meteorologists. Moreover, capturing temporal dependencies in spatiotemporal data is a challenge in precipitation nowcasting. In this article, we introduce a lightweight deep learning model for half-hourly precipitation nowcasting. This model has been designed by incorporating the DenseNet architecture, residual connections, and transformer encoders for effective precipitation nowcasting with reduced model parameters. The North-Eastern region of India has been selected as the area of interest for our study. The region receives the highest precipitation during the months of June-September due to the monsoon season. The proposed model takes the previous five time-steps of half-hourly precipitation as inputs and predicts the precipitation in the next two half-hours. The GPM IMERG precipitation dataset with a 30-minute cadence has been used in this study for training and testing the model. The proposed architecture achieves best MAE of 0.235 millimetres, RMSE of 0.735 millimetres, and KGE score of 0.816 at an interval of 30 minutes.

Gourav Jyoti Kalita, Hidam Kumarjit Singh

Department of Electronics and Communication Technology, Gauhati University, Guwahati-781014, Assam, India

Precipitation Nowcasting Rainfall Short-Horizon Forecasting Deep Learning Dense Ensemble+1

Aug 6, 2026cs.AI

Hybrid Machine Learning Framework for Herd-Level Cattle Growth Pattern and Weight Gain Forecasting in Grazing-Based Production Systems

Commercial grazing systems yield irregular livestock observations, which challenge cattle growth forecasting. This study developed a hybrid machine learning framework for herd level cattle weight forecasting using automated sensing observations collected between 2022 and 2024 in southeastern Australia. Weekly live weight observations, demographic variables, and lagged environmental predictors were integrated into structured forecasting datasets. Herd level forecasting trajectories were generated through temporal aggregation of animal level predictions. Four hybrid architecture families were evaluated, including residual, stacked, cascade, and ensemble assisted frameworks. ARIMA, LSTM, and GRU models were used as comparative baselines. Independent testing demonstrated strong predictive agreement across multiple forecasting horizons. The cascade GB to RF to NN architecture achieved the best performance, with a test R^2 of 0.889, RMSE of 21.319 kg, and MAE of 15.462 kg. Hybrid architectures maintained greater robustness than recurrent sequential models under sparse observation conditions. Forecasting error increased progressively across extended prediction horizons. Feature importance analysis identified animal age, rainfall, and temperature as dominant predictors influencing herd level growth forecasting. The proposed framework may support feed allocation, grazing management, and livestock marketing decisions under heterogeneous sensing environments.

Muhammad Riaz Hasib Hossain, Rafiqul Islam, Shawn R. McGrath +2

a School of Computing, Mathematics and Engineering, Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia · b School of Computing, Mathematics and Engineering, Charles Sturt University, Albury, NSW 2640, Australia · c Gulbali Institute for Agriculture, Water and Environment, Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2678, Australia +4

Short-Horizon Forecasting Precision Agriculture

Aug 3, 2026cs.NI

CENTILE: A Telemetry Foundation Model Evaluated by the Decisions It Drives

Modern computing and networking infrastructure emits telemetry continuously, yet operators convert it into decisions with a separate predictor per task, entity, and horizon. One generative model, pretrained once over an operator's own event streams, could replace this fleet, an approach that already scales to high-cardinality streams in recommendation systems. However, point-forecast error on operational telemetry saturates near simple last-value baselines, so lower error alone need not improve the decisions it feeds. To close this gap, we present \sys, a generative foundation model for network and systems telemetry, evaluated by replaying the decisions its calibrated conditional quantiles drive. \sys treats heterogeneous telemetry as event-driven, irregularly timed entity streams and serves flexible forecast horizons in a single pass, requiring no future timestamps. To our knowledge, \sys is the first pretrained telemetry model to improve both HPC scheduling and network provisioning decisions under replay, its runtime estimator transferring zero-shot across months and its pretrained weights across domains from hours of target data. Extensive experiments on HPC job logs and network traffic confirm that \sys lowers the mean bounded slowdown of backfilling by up to approximately

77\%

over deployed user estimates and roughly halves the deployed rule's violation rate. Our code is available at https://github.com/ZzZTripleZzZ/all-in-one.

Zifan Zhang, Zhichao Hou, Tingxiang Ji +1

Department of Computer Science, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA

Multivariate Telemetry Data Short-Horizon Forecasting Wireless Foundation Models Decisions

Jul 28, 2026cs.CL

Temporal-Distance JEPA: Plan-Aware Representation Learning for Latent World Model Predictive Control

Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs) learn world models by predicting in representation space rather than reconstructing pixels, making them a natural backbone for latent model predictive control from offline demonstration logs. JEPA-style training optimizes short-horizon latent prediction, whereas planning requires a multi-step ranking of imagined futures by goal progress. Prior JEPA planners often inherit that ranking from embedding geometry, typically latent Euclidean distance, which arises as a byproduct of representation learning rather than as a progress cost mined from the logs. We propose Temporal-Distance-JEPA, which retains the LeWM encoder--predictor backbone and mines a directed temporal cost from reward-free trajectories: same-trajectory step order supplies positive targets, cross-trajectory pairs act as heuristic negatives, and a rollout-consistency term matches the planner horizon. The mined supervision serves two roles: as the deployed planning cost when progress is topological, and as a representation signal that improves Euclidean planning when contact geometry dominates. Under locked evaluation, deploying the mined cost raises Two-Room success to 100.0% versus LeWM's 97.4%, while shared Euclidean planning on the same temporally trained checkpoint raises OGB-Cube by 14.2 points over LeWM and improves Push-T. Against LeWM and the concurrent RC-aux baseline under locked evaluation, Temporal-Distance-JEPA matches or exceeds both methods on every environment. Ablations show that the directed head, cross-trajectory negatives, and rollout consistency each contribute. Temporal-Distance-JEPA narrows the train--plan gap for JEPA world-model planners by discovering temporal progress structure in offline logs and co-designing cost form with plan-time deployment. Code is available at https://github.com/HKBU-KnowComp/Temporal-Distance-JEPA.

Jiaxin Bai, Jiaxuan Xiong

Hong Kong Baptist University Hong Kong, China

Low-Latency Latent Planning Video Joint Embedding Predictive Architecture Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures Model Predictive Control Short-Horizon Forecasting Representation Learning

Jul 23, 2026cs.LG

Nipping the Butterfly Effect in the Bud: Self-Output Fine-Tuning for Autoregressive Weather Prediction

Long-horizon weather forecasting is a fundamental challenge in atmospheric science, for which autoregressive Deep Learning Weather Prediction (DLWP) has emerged as the primary paradigm. Although the autoregressive pipeline is highly scalable and flexible, its prediction errors grow rapidly over long forecasting horizons. In this work, we study this error growth phenomenon from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Our analysis reveals that the growth is driven by a feedback loop between output errors and input distribution shifts. Specifically, the autoregressive process amplifies small initial output errors, which progressively corrupt subsequent input distributions, echoing the butterfly effect in atmospheric science and ultimately deteriorating forecasting accuracy over longer horizons. Furthermore, we show that this distributional shift originates at the earliest stage of inference, with out-of-distribution signatures detectable as early as the first autoregressive step. To mitigate this issue, we propose \textbf{Self-Output Fine-Tuning (SOFT)}, a plug-and-play strategy that leverages the model's own one-step predictions to calibrate the biased input distribution encountered at the first step. Extensive experiments demonstrate that, despite its simplicity, SOFT achieves state-of-the-art performance on long-horizon forecasting tasks and substantially reduces both prediction errors and distributional discrepancy. The success of SOFT highlights the importance of reexamining the fundamental pipeline of deep learning weather prediction, representing a critical pipeline advance for atmospheric science.

Yun-Ye Cai, Hsuan-Tien Lin

National Taiwan University · Taipei, Taiwan

Artificial Intelligence Weather Models Short-Horizon Forecasting Weather Prediction Autoregressive Model Distribution Shifts Chaos+1

Jul 15, 2026cs.AI

A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Models for Long and Short-Term Forecasting of the Egyptian Stock Market: A Focus on EGX30

This study concentrates on predicting stock prices in the Egyptian market, focusing on the EGX30, an influential financial hub in the Middle East. While most research focuses on global stocks, there's a growing need to understand stock trends in developing countries like Egypt. The study compares different machine learning models for forecasting EGX30 trends, covering short and long-term predictions. Using historical EGX30 data, including metrics like root mean squared error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, and coefficient of determination, models like K-Nearest Neighbours, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, long short-term memory networks, and gated recurrent unit networks were evaluated. The goal is to determine the most effective models for EGX30 prediction, considering Egypt's unique market dynamics. Insights from this study aid investors in making informed decisions. Results show that the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) outperformed the other models in the one-week, one-month, and two-months while the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model outperformed others in the one-day predictions, highlighting their usefulness in predictive analysis for financial markets. The study also showed the importance of using the ensemble techniques, especially in the long-term predictions which proved better results reaching 5 times the GRU in the two-month predictions. Additionally, the study notes the surprisingly good performance of K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN) on long-term predictions, suggesting its enduring relevance and potential for future applications in the fintech domains.

Muhammed Walid, Ahmed El-Naeimy, Hosam Moubarak +1

Cyber Physical Lab, Department of Computer Science & Engineering · Egypt-Japan University Of Science and Technology, Alexandria, Egypt · Accounting Department +1

Short-Horizon Forecasting Sri Lanka Comparison

Jul 14, 2026cs.LG

Accuracy-Preserving Stability Regularization for Large-Scale Retail Demand Forecasting

Retail demand forecasts are reused across replenishment, capacity, labor, and transportation planning cycles. Point-error objectives do not constrain abrupt movement between adjacent forecasts, while post-hoc smoothing acts only after model fitting. We ask whether a training-time penalty on consecutive within-series movement can improve horizontal forecast-path stability without materially changing point accuracy. The penalty is evaluated in a temporal-structured pipeline combining recent-demand embeddings with calendar, price, hierarchy, item, and store features. On selected M5 demand series at 1000, 3000, and 4000-series scales, the stability-aware hybrid model improves Forecast Stability Score over XGBoost by 6.91%, 6.66%, and 7.68%, respectively, while RMSE changes remain within 0.72% across three random seeds. Post-hoc exponential smoothing attains lower raw movement but incurs a larger RMSE cost; training-time regularization preserves more point accuracy and performs favorably under normalized stability. These findings extend forecast evaluation from point-error minimization toward an accuracy-stability trade-off perspective for operational retail forecasting.

Jize Li, Jiani He, Dishu Yang +3

Boston University, Boston, MA, USA · Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA · Northeastern University, San Jose, CA, USA +3

Short-Horizon Forecasting Regularization Post-Hoc Text Embeddings

Jul 13, 2026cs.RO

High-level spatial Dubins airplane-based reference smoothing with low-level geometric tracking for quadrotor control

A method for the control of quadrotors is presented. It is composed of a high-level reference smoothing step and a low-level reference tracking step. The high-level step leverages the Dubins airplane model for dimensionality reduction and reduced computational complexity, and exploits its structure for decoupling, spatial modeling and the formulation of a small linear program. The low-level step leverages a geometric tracking controller, which is based on the full quadrotor model. The method is designed for the tracking of references subject to lateral constraints along the path. An example is the tracking of references along obstacle contours. It is differentiated between two different setups. Either the high-level planning step is conducted once and offline, or, alternatively, the high-level planning step is conducted recedingly online in closed-loop over a limited spatial prediction horizon.

Mogens Plessen

Findklein GmbH, Switzerland

Quadrotor Aerial Navigation Motion Planning Short-Horizon Forecasting

Jul 9, 2026cs.LG

RhyMix: A Lightweight Adaptive Multi-Rhythm Network for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting

Real-world time series exhibit complex dynamics characterized by multiple simultaneous temporal patterns: short-term fluctuations, periodic seasonal cycles, long-term trends, and irregular abrupt changes. However, many existing forecasting architectures rely on single-path temporal modeling--transformers capture long-range dependencies but smooth local variations, convolutions capture local patterns but have limited receptive fields, and linear models are efficient but cannot capture nonlinear dynamics. To address this, we introduce RhyMix (RHYthm MIXture), a hybrid neural architecture designed around a parallel dual-path modeling paradigm with adaptive gating mechanisms. RhyMix integrates two complementary encoding branches: (i) a Cyclic Path that incorporates explicit seasonal inductive bias through learnable cyclic embeddings, capturing predictable rhythmic patterns; and (ii) a lightweight Multi-Scale Temporal Convolutional Network with Channel Attention Path that employs multi-scale depthwise dilated convolutions to capture temporal dependencies across different receptive fields. A key innovation is the use of adaptive gating at multiple levels: a path gate dynamically combines four specialized forecasting heads (Direct, Trend-Seasonal Decomposition, Local Convolution, and Periodic Fusion) per sample and channel, while a hybrid gate adaptively balances the Cyclic and MSTCN-CA Paths based on input characteristics. This design ensures the model adapts to specific temporal patterns while maintaining linear complexity in sequence length, channels, and prediction horizon. Across extensive benchmarks on 12 real-world datasets for long-term forecasting, RhyMix achieves state-of-the-art performance on 10 of 12 datasets. The model remains lightweight (~40K params) with linear complexity and low-latency inference (<5ms),suitable for resource-constrained edge devices and real-time deployment.

Sumit Satishrao Shevtekar, Chandresh Kumar Maurya

Short-Horizon Forecasting Temporal Convolutional Networks Time Series Temporal Dynamics Spatio-Temporal Transformers Inductive Bias

Jul 7, 2026cs.LG

NEST: Tackling Dataset-Level Distribution Shifts via Regime-Oriented Mixture-of-Experts

Accurate long-term forecasting in complex systems is frequently compromised by dataset-level distribution shifts, where diverse underlying behavioral modes and evolving system states drive the dynamic multivariate time-series. While existing methods predominantly focus on local temporal shifts, they fail to explicitly model the global structural challenge where datasets are composites of distinct operational regimes. In this paper, we propose NEST, a specialized framework designed to model and recompose these evolving structures through a two-phase dense MoE architecture. NEST first facilitates structural specialization by partitioning the dataset into distinct operational regimes through unsupervised clustering in a principled moment-entropy space. We introduce a regime-oriented router mechanism that generates initial expert weights based on temporal content, subsequently refined through geometric modulation to regime centroids. Crucially, rather than acting as monolithic predictors, individual experts function as specialized kernels that capture regime-specific dynamics by evolving unique variate-attention patterns. Extensive evaluations on diverse benchmarks, including heterogeneous network traffic and physical phenomena, demonstrate that NEST consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance. Our code and datasets are available at https://github.com/Aaralshin/NEST

Lanhao Li, Bingshu Xie, Lijun Sun +3

1Beihang University

Mixture-Of-Experts Architectures Distribution Shifts Short-Horizon Forecasting

Jul 5, 2026cs.CV

CRISP: A Spatiotemporal Camera-Radar Backbone for Driving via Forecasting-Based World-Model Pretraining

Camera-radar (CR) fusion is a practical sensing configuration for autonomous driving, but existing models are typically trained with task-specific supervision, limiting reusable representation learning. We present CRISP, a spatiotemporal CR backbone pretrained through forecasting-based representation learning. Given historical multi-view images and radar sweeps, CRISP learns a unified bird's-eye-view (BEV) representation by predicting future LiDAR point clouds. LiDAR is used only as privileged supervision during pretraining; the deployed model requires only camera and radar. To make forecasting-based pretraining effective for CR fusion, CRISP introduces an enhanced radar encoder, radar-enhanced temporal self-attention, and multimodal feature rendering with modality innovation gating. These components inject radar range and Doppler cues into BEV temporal propagation and allow BEV tokens to selectively incorporate camera and radar evidence. Experiments on nuScenes show that CRISP improves long-horizon point cloud forecasting and transfers effectively to downstream tasks, including 3D detection, tracking, online mapping, motion forecasting, future occupancy prediction, and planning, suggesting that predictive CR pretraining is a promising path toward scalable driving representations under practical sensor configurations. The project website is https://umfieldrobotics.github.io/CRISP.

Jingyu Song, Yi Liu, Katherine A. Skinner

Department of Robotics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA

Autonomous Driving Spatio-Temporal Transformers Radar Short-Horizon Forecasting World Models Taco

Jul 1, 2026cs.RO

AutoSpeed: Annotation-Free Stage-Adaptive Motion Speed Learning for Robot Manipulation

Different stages of manipulation tasks exhibit varying levels of difficulty, suggesting stage-dependent motion speeds and temporal prediction horizons. However, existing IL-based visuomotor policies typically imitate the execution speed of expert demonstrations and operate with a fixed temporal prediction horizon, limiting flexibility and overall task throughput. In this paper, we introduce AutoSpeed, a model-agnostic learning framework that enables existing visuomotor policies to predict trajectories with stage-adaptive motion speeds, without requiring speed or stage annotations. We treat future trajectories at different speeds as candidate optimization targets, evaluate each candidate using a composite cost that trades off prediction error against prediction horizon, and optimize the policy toward the minimum-cost candidate. With a fixed-length action sequence, speed modulation adjusts the effective temporal prediction horizon: simple stages are executed faster with a longer prediction horizon, whereas complex stages are executed more slowly with a shorter prediction horizon. Specifically, we implement speed modulation in the frequency domain via the discrete cosine transform (DCT), which enables smooth, non-integer speed scaling and thus preserves motion continuity. Extensive evaluations show that AutoSpeed substantially reduces task execution time while also improving success rates. Under the AutoSpeed framework, the inferred motion speeds exhibit a strong correspondence with task stages.

Qingda Hu, Ziheng Qiu, Jieru Zhao +2

College of Intelligent Robotics and Advanced Manufacturing, Fudan University, Shanghai, China · School of Computing, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China

Visuomotor Policy Robotic Manipulation Motion Action Sequences Short-Horizon Forecasting

Jun 12, 2026cs.LG

A Comparative Study of Deep Learning Architectures for Multi-Horizon Behavioural Forecasting for Mobile Health

Wearable devices and smartphones generate rich behavioural time series that can support proactive health interventions, yet systematic comparisons of modern forecasting architectures for these data are lacking. In particular, it remains unclear how models generalise across populations, how different architectures respond to participant-level fine-tuning and how forecasting accuracy degrades across multi-day horizons. We benchmark six deep learning architectures, two zero-shot Foundation Models (FM) and statistical baselines on three public datasets encompassing over 800 participants, reporting per-feature metrics for step counts, screen time and sleep duration across 1-8 day horizons. We further conduct a per-feature personalisation study across all six architectures and assess FM transferability across dataset sizes and temporal granularities. Our key findings are: (i) no single architecture dominates, PatchTST leads among trained models while the three runners-up (TCN, MLP, Transformer) show no meaningful performance difference; (ii) the FM TimesFM matches or exceeds trained models zero-shot, especially in low-data regimes and (iii) participant-level fine-tuning reduces per-feature RMSE by 16-60%, with sleep benefiting most and step counts least. These results provide practical guidance on architecture selection, FM applicability and personalisation strategies for mobile health forecasting. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to jointly evaluate modern deep learning, FMs and personalisation for multi-horizon behavioural forecasting from wearables.

Pavlos Nicolaou, Kleanthis Malialis, Artemis Kontou +1

KIOS Research and Innovation Center of Excellence · Department of Computer Science University of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus

Forecasting Backbone Short-Horizon Forecasting Wearable Devices Deep Learning Architectures Deep Learning Time Series+1

Jun 11, 2026cs.MA

Effects of Social Interactions in Self-Organising Railway Traffic Management

Recent research is exploring self-organised traffic management as a solution for scaling to complex real-world networks. In such a system, trains predict their neighbourhood, produce traffic plan hypotheses, and agree via consensus with neighbours on a future traffic plan to be implemented. This paper investigates a structural parameter within this pipeline: the predictive neighbourhood horizon. The horizon is used by trains to identify future potential conflicts with neighbours, and to establish the local interaction topology, that is, the subset of trains to negotiate with. As the primary design variable, the horizon directly determines the size and density of the social interaction graph, whereas its impact on the complexity of local sub-problems and the distributed consensus dynamics represents a trade-off to be explored. Through a closed-loop simulation framework the study evaluates how variations of the horizon impact the overall decentralised coordination process, from initial conflict detection to distributed schedule consensus. The analysis focuses on investigating the potential trade-off introduced by the horizon choice: balancing local tractability and computational responsiveness with the need for global schedule coherence and feasibility in safety-critical environments. Contrary to intuition, our empirical results indicate that the short time horizons suffice, while long values compromise local tractability and computational responsiveness with no gain in global schedule optimality.

Fabio Oddi, Federico Naldini, Leo D'Amato +3

Institute for Cognitive Sciences and Technologies, CNR, Via Giandomenico Romagnosi 18A, 00196, Rome, Italy · Dipartimento di Ingegneria Informatica, Automatica e Gestionale, La Sapienza Universit´a di Roma, Via Ariosto 25, 00185, Rome, Italy · Univ. Gustave Eiffel, COSYS-ESTAS, F-59650 Villeneuve d’Ascq, France +1

Intelligent Transportation Short-Horizon Forecasting Network Science Topology Impact Analysis

Jun 9, 2026cs.RO

Dynamic Execution Horizon Prediction for Chunk-based Robot Policies

Action chunking has become a standard design in modern robot policies, from diffusion/flow policies to vision-language-action models, where the policy predicts a sequence of actions and executes a fixed number of them instead of acting one step at a time. However, this paradigm relies on a key assumption: a fixed execution horizon. During chunk execution, the policy operates open-loop, which is particularly problematic for fine-grained manipulation tasks that require frequent replanning. In practice, the execution horizon is typically chosen through empirical tuning and is highly task-dependent. To this end, we propose Dynamic Execution Horizon Prediction (DEHP), an effective method that trains a lightweight execution-horizon prediction branch using online reinforcement learning while keeping the pretrained chunk policy completely frozen. This makes the method compatible with black-box chunk policies and isolates the effect of adapting the execution horizon from changes to the underlying action generator. Across our evaluations, DEHP improves the success rate of different high-precision and long-horizon manipulation tasks by a large margin. Our qualitative analysis further shows that DEHP predicts shorter execution horizons during fine-grained stages of the task and longer horizons during free-space motion. In this way, DEHP balances the efficiency of open-loop chunk execution with the reactivity of closed-loop single-step control. Project page: https://dehp-chunking.github.io/

Yuchi Zhao, Miroslav Bogdanovic, Arjun Sohal +5

Department of Computer Science, University of Toronto, 40 St George St., Toronto, ON M5S 2E4, Canada · Vector Institute for Artificial Intelligence, W1140-108 College St., Schwartz Reisman Innovation Campus, Toronto, ON M5G 0C6, Canada · Acceleration Consortium, 700 University Ave., Toronto, ON M7A 2S4, Canada +7

Action Chunks Long-Horizon Manipulation Robot Policies Action Prediction Action Generation Short-Horizon Forecasting+1

Jun 2, 2026cs.LG

Metric-Aware Hybrid Forecasting for the CTF4Science Lorenz Challenge

We describe our approach to the CTF4Science Lorenz challenge, a benchmark that mixes short-horizon forecasting, long-time distribution matching, and trajectory reconstruction across nine task pairs. The key discovery is that no single model family dominated all metrics. Instead, we built a metric-aware hybrid system that assigned a different predictor to each metric family: (1) synthetic-pretrained denoisers for full-trajectory reconstruction, (2) Lorenz ODE fitting and trajectory shooting for the first 20 forecast steps, and (3) histogram-tail substitution using synthetic Lorenz libraries for long-time evaluation. A representative mature submission from this system family scored 83.83551 on the public leaderboard, and a small follow-up stack of the same ideas reached 83.85529. We focus on the cleaner intermediate system because it captures the full method while remaining simple enough to reproduce and analyze, while the final submission can be understood as a conservative extension of the same backbone.

Cen Lu

EPFL & Idiap Research Institute · Switzerland

Short-Horizon Forecasting Chaos Challenges

May 27, 2026cs.LG

Stabilizing distribution-free probabilistic forecasts

Multi-step-ahead forecasts are often updated as new observations become available, since shorter forecast horizons typically improve forecast quality. However, such improvements come at the cost of forecast instability, i.e., variability in forecasts for the same target period. This instability can trigger costly changes to plans formulated based on the forecasts and may erode trust in the forecasting system. In this work, we integrate forecast stability alongside forecast quality into the training of distribution-free probabilistic time-series forecasting models, allowing us to control this trade-off. We propose a method for generating stabilized forecasted conditional quantile functions using regression splines parameterized by a neural network. This approach enables joint optimization of quality and stability, as it allows us to directly penalize dissimilarities arising from forecast updates. Furthermore, it allows assigning varying importance to stabilizing different parts of the forecast distributions (e.g., central parts vs. tails) to focus on the parts most relevant for the intended downstream use (e.g., the upper tail for inventory management). We empirically evaluate the proposed method on two datasets with different statistical properties and show that it can effectively reduce forecast instability without a substantial loss in forecast quality, and that it can target stabilization effort toward specific parts of the forecast distributions.

Jente Van Belle, Honglin Wen, Wouter Verbeke +1

Faculty of Economics and Business, KU Leuven, Belgium · Department of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, China · Dyson School of Design Engineering, Imperial College London, United Kingdom +3

Probabilistic Forecasting Short-Horizon Forecasting Forecast Quantile Regression

May 25, 2026cs.LG

Semigroup Consistency as a Diagnostic for Learned Physics Simulators

Learned physics simulators are often evaluated by one-step or short-horizon prediction error, but these metrics can miss failures in temporal composition and long-horizon rollout. For autonomous, state-complete systems, exact solution maps satisfy a semigroup law: direct evolution over

s+t

should agree with evolution over

s

followed by

t

. We propose normalized semigroup error as a post hoc, model-agnostic diagnostic comparing these direct and composed learned predictions. On one-dimensional heat and Burgers dynamics with time-conditioned ConvNet and FNO baselines, semigroup error is positively associated with rollout degradation, with trajectory-level Spearman correlation

ρ= 0.635

and

95%

CI

[0.621, 0.649]

. Semigroup regularization has mixed effects, supporting semigroup consistency primarily as an evaluation diagnostic rather than a universally beneficial training objective.

Lennon J. Shikhman

Georgia Institute of Technology

Physics Simulation Short-Horizon Forecasting Diagnosis Evolutionary Optimization Methods

May 18, 2026cs.CV

Learning Long-Term Temporal Dependencies in Photovoltaic Power Output Prediction Through Multi-Horizon Forecasting

The rapid global expansion of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity-reaching a record 597 GW in 2024-highlights the urgent need for robust forecasting models to mitigate the grid instability caused by the intermittent nature of solar irradiance. While deep learning-based direct forecasting using ground-based sky images (GSI) has emerged as a dominant approach, existing literature is often constrained by single-architecture evaluations and an exclusive focus on single-horizon (point) prediction. This paper proposes a transition from traditional single-horizon estimation toward a multi-horizon forecasting framework, leading to an architecture-independent improvement in accuracy. We hypothesize and demonstrate experimentally that joint optimization over a sequence of future values allows deep neural networks to better capture latent inter-step temporal dependencies by avoiding precocious convergence of the network in terms of both weight gradients and filter diversity. Leveraging this architecture-independent improvement that integrates sequential sky imagery with historical PV generation data, we evaluate the models' abilities to predict power output across multiple discrete future time steps simultaneously. Our methodology is validated through a comparative analysis across diverse deep learning architectures. The results demonstrate that this multi-horizon approach significantly enhances predictive accuracy and robustness across the entire forecast horizon while maintaining computational parsimony. By achieving superior performance with negligible overhead compared to single-horizon models, this work provides a scalable and efficient solution to improve the resilience of modern power grids.

Sumit Laha, Ankit Sharma, Hassan Foroosh

Department of Computer Science University of Central Florida Orlando, Florida, United States.

Energy Forecasting Photovoltaic Short-Horizon Forecasting Long-Range Temporal Dependencies Earth

May 14, 2026cs.CV

MambaRain: Multi-Scale Mamba-Attention Framework for 0-3 Hour Precipitation Nowcasting

Accurate precipitation nowcasting over extended horizons (0-3 hours) is essential for disaster mitigation and operational decision-making, yet remains a critical challenge in the field. Existing deterministic approaches are predominantly constrained to shorter prediction windows (0-2 hours), exhibiting severe performance degradation beyond 90 minutes owing to their inherent difficulty in capturing long-range spatiotemporal dependencies from radar-derived observations. To address these fundamental limitations, we propose MambaRain, a novel multi-scale encoder-decoder architecture that synergistically integrates Mamba's linear-complexity long-range temporal modeling with self-attention mechanisms for explicit spatial correlation capture. The core innovation lies in a hybrid design paradigm wherein Mamba blocks leverage selective state space mechanisms to model global temporal dynamics across extended sequences with computational efficiency, while self-attention modules explicitly characterize spatial correlations within precipitation fields - a capability inherently absent in Mamba's sequential processing paradigm. This complementary synergy enables comprehensive spatiotemporal representation learning, effectively extending the viable forecasting horizon to 2-3 hours with substantial accuracy improvements. Furthermore, we introduce a spectral loss formulation to mitigate blurring artifacts characteristic of chaotic precipitation systems, thereby preserving fine-scale motion details critical for nowcasting accuracy. Experimental validation demonstrates that MambaRain substantially outperforms existing deterministic methodologies in 0-3 hour nowcasting tasks, with particularly pronounced performance gains in the challenging 2-3 hour prediction range.

Chunlei Shi, Cui Wu, Xiang Xu +10

School of Automation, Southeast University · Nanjing XinDa Institute of Meteorological Science and Technology · Beijing Leninainfo Technology Co., Ltd. +5

Precipitation Nowcasting Rainfall Short-Horizon Forecasting Long-Range Temporal Dependencies Topomamba Multiscale+1

May 12, 2026cs.LG

ECTO: Exogenous-Conditioned Temporal Operator for Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

Accurate ultra-short-term wind power forecasting is critical for grid dispatch and reserve management, yet remains challenging due to the non-stationary, condition-dependent nature of wind generation. Meteorological exogenous variables carry substantial predictive information, but the most informative variable combination varies across sites, operating conditions, and prediction horizons. Existing deep learning approaches either treat exogenous inputs as generic auxiliary channels through uniform mixing or soft gating, or rely on fixed preprocessing steps such as PCA, without exploiting the physical structure of meteorological variables. We propose ECTO (Exogenous-Conditioned Temporal Operator), a unified framework that decomposes exogenous variable modeling into two complementary modules. Physically-Grounded Variable Selection (PGVS) performs hierarchical, group-aware sparse selection over exogenous variables using a domain-informed physical prior and sparsemax activations, producing a compact, condition-adaptive exogenous context. Exogenous-Conditioned Regime Refinement (ECRR) routes the forecast through learned regime experts that apply gain--bias calibration and horizon-specific corrections via a mixture-of-experts paradigm. Experiments on three wind farms spanning different climates, capacities (66--200 MW), and exogenous dimensions (11--13 variables) demonstrate that ECTO achieves the lowest MSE across all sites, with relative improvements over the strongest baseline ranging from 2.2% to 5.2%, widening to 8.6% at the longer prediction horizon (

H=32

). Ablation analysis confirms that each exogenous-related component contributes positively (PGVS +1.84%, ECRR +2.86%), and interpretability analysis reveals that PGVS learns physically meaningful, site-specific variable selection patterns, while ECRR converges to well-separated calibration strategies consistent across sites.

Cao Yuan, Junjun Wang

Wuhan Polytechnic University, Wuhan, 430048, Hubei, China

Offshore Wind Turbine Short-Horizon Forecasting

May 10, 2026cs.LG

ChaosNetBench: Benchmarking Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks on Chaotic Lattice Dynamics

Spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) are widely used for short-term forecasting in dynamic physical systems such as traffic and weather. However, the prevailing evaluation practice uses real world benchmark data sets in a single domain with a single fixed holdout splits, making it difficult to compare architectures across different dynamical regimes. We introduce ChaosNetBench (CNB), a synthetic benchmark dataset and evaluation framework for studying STGNN performance under controlled multidimensional chaotic dynamics. CNB is built on a lattice of coupled standard maps with independently tunable local chaos (

K

), coupling strength (

\varepsilon

), and system size (

N

), providing known topology and known dynamics across 96 system instances and 9{,}600 trajectories. We introduce chaos indicators, evaluation metrics and a protocol to analyze and compare the capacity of STGNN architectures to deal with different levels of local and global chaos. We illustrate the usage of the framework by analyzing 13 architectures (5 STGNNs and 8 non-graph baselines). The results reveal a regime dependent transition in which non-graph baselines (TCN, N-BEATS, iTransformer) remain competitive when there is low local chaos, while STGNNs (e.g., Graph WaveNet, D2STGNN, STAEformer) are generally more resilient to higher levels of local and global chaos. CNB provides a practical, reusable testbed for systematically comparing and analyzing the capacity of STGNN architectures to handle different levels of local and global chaos.

Henok Tenaw Moges, Charalampos Skokos, Deshendran Moodley

Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research (CAIR) University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa · Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos Group, Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa

Temporal Graph Neural Networks Chaos Short-Horizon Forecasting Neural Network

May 8, 2026cs.LG

Predictive but Not Plannable: RC-aux for Latent World Models

A latent world model may achieve accurate short-horizon prediction while still inducing a latent space that is poorly aligned with planning. A key issue is spatiotemporal mismatch: these models are often trained with local predictive supervision, but deployed for long-horizon goal-directed search in latent spaces where Euclidean distance may not reflect what is reachable within a finite action budget. We present the Reachability-Correction auxiliary objective (RC-aux), a lightweight correction for this mismatch in reconstruction-free latent world models. RC-aux keeps the world-model backbone unchanged and adds planning-aligned supervision along two axes. Along the time axis, multi-horizon open-loop prediction trains the model beyond one-step consistency. Along the space axis, budget-conditioned reachability supervision, together with temporal hard negatives, encourages the latent space to distinguish states that are eventually reachable from those reachable within the current planning horizon. At test time, the learned reachability signal can also be used by a reachability-aware planner to favor trajectories that are both goal-directed and attainable under the available budget. We instantiate RC-aux on LeWorldModel and evaluate it under both continuation-training and matched-from-scratch settings. Across goal-conditioned pixel-control tasks and a LIBERO-Goal extension, RC-aux improves LeWM-style planning with modest additional cost. These results suggest that planning with latent world models depends not only on predictive accuracy, but also on whether the learned representation encodes the temporal and geometric structure required by downstream search. The code is available at https://github.com/Guang000/RC-aux.

Wenyuan Li, Guang Li, Keisuke Maeda +2

Hokkaido University

Latent World Models World Models Short-Horizon Forecasting Reachability

Apr 24, 2026cs.LG

Liquid Neural Network Models for Natural Gas Spot Price Time-Series Forecasting

Natural gas is undoubtedly an essential component of the global energy system. Accurate short-term forecasting of natural gas price is challenging due to pronounced volatility driven by seasonal demand patterns, geopolitical developments, and shifting macroeconomic conditions. The nonlinear dynamics and frequent regime changes can limit the effectiveness of traditional time-series models. In this study, we explore the use of Liquid Neural Networks (LNNs) for short-horizon forecasting of the Henry Hub spot price, a primary benchmark for pricing. LNNs are designed to adapt continuously to evolving temporal patterns through dynamic internal state updates, making them well suited for nonstationary price behavior. By improving forecast accuracy in volatile market conditions, this work aims to reduce uncertainty and enhance decision support across energy trading and power market applications.

Yiqian Liu, Jiayi Niu, Adam Kelleher +1

Department of Data Science, Columbia University New York, NY, USA

Electricity Price Forecasting Short-Horizon Forecasting Electricity Markets Non-Stationarity Neural Network

Nov 19, 2025cs.LG

Walrus: A Cross-Domain Foundation Model for Continuum Dynamics

Foundation models have transformed machine learning for language and vision, but achieving comparable impact in physical simulation remains a challenge. Data heterogeneity and unstable long-term dynamics inhibit learning from sufficiently diverse dynamics, while varying resolutions and dimensionalities challenge efficient training on modern hardware. Through empirical and theoretical analysis, we incorporate new approaches to mitigate these obstacles, including a harmonic-analysis-based stabilization method, load-balanced distributed 2D and 3D training strategies, and compute-adaptive tokenization. Using these tools, we develop Walrus, a transformer-based foundation model developed primarily for fluid-like continuum dynamics. Walrus is pretrained on nineteen diverse scenarios spanning astrophysics, geoscience, rheology, plasma physics, acoustics, and classical fluids. Experiments show that Walrus outperforms prior foundation models on both short and long term prediction horizons on downstream tasks and across the breadth of pretraining data, while ablation studies confirm the value of our contributions to forecast stability, training throughput, and transfer performance over conventional approaches. Code and weights are released for community use.

Michael McCabe, Payel Mukhopadhyay, Tanya Marwah +22

Polymathic AI · Flatiron Institute · New York University +9

Wireless Foundation Models Foundation Model Long-Horizon Inference Short-Horizon Forecasting

Aug 2, 2024cs.LG

Spatio-Temporal Partial Sensing Forecast for Long-term Traffic

Traffic forecasting uses recent measurements by sensors installed at chosen locations to forecast the future road traffic. Existing work either assumes all locations are equipped with sensors or focuses on short-term forecast. This paper studies partial sensing forecast of long-term traffic, assuming sensors are available only at some locations. The problem is challenging due to the unknown data distribution at unsensed locations, the intricate spatio-temporal correlation in long-term forecasting, as well as noise to traffic patterns. We propose a Spatio-temporal Long-term Partial sensing Forecast model (SLPF) for traffic prediction, with several novel contributions, including a rank-based embedding technique to reduce the impact of noise in data, a spatial transfer matrix to overcome the spatial distribution shift from sensed locations to unsensed locations, and a multi-step training process that utilizes all available data to successively refine the model parameters for better accuracy. Extensive experiments on several real-world traffic datasets demonstrate its superior performance. Our source code is at https://github.com/zbliu98/SLPF

Zibo Liu, Zhe Jiang, Zelin Xu +5

Department of Computer & Information Science & Engineering, University of Florida · Department of Computer Science, University of Kentucky

Accurate Traffic Forecasting Spatio-Temporal Forecasting Short-Horizon Forecasting Spatiotemporal