Task Transferability Estimation

A natural strategy for inverse problems with scarce labelled data is to transfer relational structure learned from abundant forward-simulation data. We show this strategy fails systematically, even when it satisfies the standard theoretical justification for why structure should help. We prove that approximate structure provides estimation-error benefits whenever the edge error satisfies $Δ< n^2 - kn$, reducing sample complexity from $O(n^2)$ to $O(kn+Δ)$. Structure learned via Neural Relational Inference (NRI) from dynamics prediction satisfies this condition, yet on a source-localisation task across 180 CFD-simulated hydrogen-leak scenarios and 180 acoustic scenarios, it degrades performance by 116% and 201% relative to a flexible, task-optimised attention baseline, while a physics-based prior (Green's function) degrades by only 69-72%. Four independent lines of evidence show this is not a tuning failure: NRI improves only 0.5% when given 18x more training data (versus 16.6% for the task-optimised baseline, $p<0.001$); performance is insensitive to the NRI edge threshold across a wide range; the dynamics-learned graph overlaps the task-optimal graph on only 6% of edges; and two further dynamics-derived structure estimators (correlation- and mutual-information-based) show no measurable benefit over a structure-free baseline, with the correlation-based estimator performing markedly worse. We formalise this gap as a statement about approximation error that the edge-accuracy condition cannot control, and we provide a lightweight transferability test (Jaccard similarity against a partially-observed target-task graph) that separates successful from failed transfer in all four domain/structure pairs we evaluate, using under an hour of computation and 15-20% of target-domain data; we present this as a heuristic calibrated on few cases, not a validated general threshold.

Cross-lingual transfer describes how knowledge in a source language benefits a target language. Measuring it quantitatively requires broad multilingual pre-training, as prior work has done with cross-lingual transfer matrices. We ask whether transfer is predictable from freely available typological features, and whether the prominence of high-resource source languages reflects typology or data quality and quantity. We show that typological databases contain cheap and dense signals about cross-lingual transfer. Our typology-only random forest on a 24-language prior-work transfer matrix scores leave-one-language-out $ρ{=}0.705$ and $R^2{=}0.49$, beating a non-typological control at $ρ{=}0.62$, which verifies the ability of typology-only predictions to reconstruct costly measured cross-lingual transfer. The signal survives leave-one-script-out and leave-one-family-out protocols, so script and family confounding do not explain the effect. By decomposing the transfer into a typology term and a resource-and-script bias term, we find the best-source ranking sensitive to this bias. In contrast, typology is not affected by this bias, which makes it a zero-compute screening tool that replaces hundreds of training runs with a model fit. Our code is available here.

Laboratories often face a new molecular assay with 16-64 labels and a bank of predictors whose training data and parameters are unavailable. The practical question is which frozen outputs to include in a small local model. AssayRouter treats completed assays as pseudo-targets and labels each candidate by its post-fit utility: the reduction in held-out discovery loss when the candidate is added to the local target predictor. A shared regressor learns to predict this utility from candidate behavior on the support set, without source identity; on a new assay, one frozen ranking selects four sources and separate labels fit a convex combiner. We train only on completed ChEMBL-MT assays and evaluate 24 external regression assays across six frozen interface families. AssayRouter-C lowers strict four-call negative log-likelihood (NLL) by 0.0409 relative to Support-CV@4. Frozen candidate-label permutations confirm that candidate-utility correspondence carries the transferred information, and leave-one-interface-out training shows that the mapping generalizes to unseen predictor families. Completed assays therefore provide transferable supervision for scarce-label routing through frozen prediction interfaces.

A skill bank that helps one multi-agent system may leave another's behavior unchanged. A transferred rule helps only when target agents act on it successfully. We study this path for routing and communication skills in Count-Frequency and AgentsNet, using teams of 4--32 agents and GPT and Qwen model ladders. Source evolution meets a joint quality, cost, model-tier, and confirmation goal in 14 of 16 settings. We then evaluate Evo2Team, which selects, adapts, and confirms source skills for the target team, alongside six frozen selectors across 28 transfer directions. Evo2Team's target-side exploration cost is below that of evolving a new target bank in every direction, even when reused reference evaluations are charged once. Twenty of 28 held-out outcomes meet the positive-transfer criterion, including three saved diagnostic tests. Selection alone does not explain these outcomes: KNN and CORAL choose different banks in two AgentsNet directions but produce identical recorded executions. When Evo2Team changes execution, gains can reach many tasks, as in a Count-Frequency direction that improves 28 of 32 tasks over KNN. Seven positive AgentsNet outcomes save 6.1--14.6% in deployment cost while using transferred skills on only three to six of fifteen tasks. In five earlier accepted directions, all 22 task records using transferred skills pass three fixed-graph confirmations, but four fail in recorded executions on new graphs. Graphs and model responses change together in this comparison. These results show that skill transfer must be assessed through the actions agents take, the tasks those actions reach, and the quality and cost of the final deployment.

Greenhouse gas emissions estimates can be derived using inverse methods by combining atmospheric concentration observations with chemical transport models. The latter traditionally use physics-driven simulators such as Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Models (LPDMs), which are expensive to run and do not scale well to modern satellites' high resolution data. Previously we developed a performant atmospheric transport emulator that approximates LPDM outputs ("footprints") over South America ~1,000X faster than the UK Met Office's LPDM. Expanding towards global emulation is not straightforward, as atmospheric transport is regionally heterogeneous. This paper evaluates spatial transferability capabilities of models across four world regions: South America, East Asia, South Asia, North Africa using both region-specific and multi-region models, and leave-one-region-out experiments. Regional differences are characterised in the context of input variable and output footprint distributions. This work builds intuition in cross-region generalisation and transfer learning, aiding regional performance towards efficient global emissions estimates.

Introduction: Occupational accident narratives describe work situations, unfavourable conditions, accident events, and consequences, but differences in terminology and reporting practices hinder systematic analysis across sectors and organisations. This study examined whether a model developed in one occupational sector could identify the same accident-process information in unseen sectors and reporting environments. Method: French accident narratives were segmented into factual units and expert-annotated as work situation, explicitly reported unfavourable condition, accident event or deviation, or reported consequence. Models were developed on 42,244 factual units from 6,040 construction-sector narratives and evaluated without retraining on metallurgy, chemistry-plastics, and an independently collected company corpus. We compared a TF-IDF-based lexical model, frozen pretrained text representations, and task-adapted pretrained models. Results: Average balanced accuracy was 75.0% for TF-IDF, 76.9% for frozen pretrained representations, and about 85.7% after task adaptation. Across repeated runs, leading adapted approaches showed similar overall performance, with no method consistently outperforming the others. Performance was lower and more variable on the company corpus, where transfer also involved a different reporting environment and data source. Conclusions: Accident-process roles learned from construction narratives remained identifiable in other sectors and an independent organisational setting. Practical Applications: The framework can support assisted coding, expert review, cross-sector analysis, and prevention-oriented analysis of large accident-report collections.

Web agents often revisit the same sites, yet most evaluations discard the procedures learned in earlier successful interactions. We introduce EconSkills, a skill library and evaluation framework that distills verified EconWebArena trajectories into parameterized standard operating procedures for retrieving live economic data. Each skill records its scope, navigation procedure, site-specific guidance, verification checks, and recovery steps while replacing source-instance values with placeholders. EconSkills separates two questions: whether a known relevant procedure transfers to a held-out task, and whether an agent can retain that benefit when selecting from a library. In controlled transfer, matched skills improve success over no-skill prompting and require fewer steps on paired successes. Under the evaluated prompt formats, the parameterized skill prompt substantially outperforms the corresponding raw-trajectory prompt. With the full 50-skill library, retrieval is competitive with the no-skill baseline overall and performs best on tasks with a direct family match; approximate matches on other tasks offset these gains. Browser trajectories further identify when procedural guidance shortens portal-specific navigation and when semantic verification remains necessary. These results establish that reusable economic web procedures can transfer across task instances and provide a concrete design target for match-aware selection and context delivery.

fMRI foundation models increasingly aggregate heterogeneous data across brain states, cohorts, and acquisition settings, yet pretraining domains are commonly treated as a flat mixture and downstream tasks are adapted independently. We study whether measured learning relations can organize both stages without modifying the backbone. During pretraining, a lightweight Brain-DiT proxy estimates difficulty and directed facilitation across ten fMRI domains, yielding a priority-guided cumulative domain curriculum combined with high-to-low-noise timestep scheduling and joint consolidation. During adaptation, controlled first- and higher-order transfer across fifteen tasks constructs a directed taskonomy, from which budgeted integer programming (BIP) selects directly supervised source tasks and target-specific routes. The joint priority-domain and high-to-low-timestep curriculum reduces v-NMSE, PSD-NMSE, and FC-MSE by 6.5%, 16.3%, and 10.5%, respectively, relative to uniform sampling over both dimensions, and shows strong downstream performance across six in- and out-of-domain tasks. The taskonomy reveals asymmetric, target-dependent transfer, while exploratory sealed-test evaluation shows larger descriptive gains for BIP policies when higher-order route spaces are available than for matched random controls. Together, these findings support organizing fMRI pretraining and adaptation by measured learning relations rather than treating domains and tasks as independent flat sets.

Human mobility serves as an essential proxy for understanding social, economic, and environmental dynamics in urban systems. Geospatial transferability, which measures a model's capability in a new location or unseen region, is a critical dimension for comparing different human mobility generation models. However, few studies have studied the intrinsic characteristics of geospatial transferability. To this end, this study systematically investigates the geospatial transferability of four representative human mobility generation models using a large-scale benchmark dataset of census tract level commuting flows across 2265 counties in the United States. Inspired by the domain adaptation theory in machine learning, we introduce geographic domain shift to describe the intrinsic differences in geographic feature distributions and spatial structures between source and target regions, which may jointly affect model transferability. Moreover, we propose two metrics, mutual information and spatial shift, to quantify the geographic domain shift. To examine their associations with model transferability, we employ linear mixed-effects regression to analyze the associations between geographic domain shifts and transferability. Our results reveal substantial spatial heterogeneity and asymmetry in transfer performance across regions. Both information shift and spatial shift exhibit statistically significant and complementary explanatory power. This indicates that geospatial transferability depends not only on model design but also on intrinsic geographic differences. These findings provide a novel methodological framework for evaluating and improving the geospatial transferability of human mobility generation models and support more robust and fair human mobility data synthesis across diverse regions. It also offers insights on spatial transferability for GeoAI model development.

In transfer learning, the choice of source model largely influences the performance on a target dataset. Still, selecting a fitting source remains a challenging task, especially in medical imaging where one has to decide between models pre-trained on off-the-shelf options, such as ImageNet, and domain specific datasets. Transferability estimation (TE) metrics address this problem by aiming to predict the best performing source model in a computationally cost effective way. However, previous work has reported conflicting TE metric performances due to differences in experimental setups. Moreover, most TE metrics are designed for and evaluated on natural images, while being optimized for accuracy, whereas in medical imaging metrics that are more robust to class imbalance are typically used. We study the impact of varying the target dataset as an isolated factor, by constructing miniature populations of different sample sizes and random seeds. In addition, we investigate the influence of the evaluation metric used to obtain the reference ranking. We find that small modifications to the target dataset change the rankings. Furthermore, we show that the choice of evaluation metric affects the reference rankings and therefore the evaluation of TE metrics. Overall, we observe a low agreement between rankings from TE metrics and reference. The code, model checkpoints and data splits used in this work are available through https://github.com/niclasclassen/robustness-of-transferability-estimation-metrics-for-medical-imaging.

Cross-dataset generalisation remains a major barrier to clinical deployment of echocardiographic left ventricular segmentation, yet the sources of this shift are rarely disentangled. We examined whether transfer degradation could be estimated before deployment using handcrafted ultrasound descriptors, VAE latent features, and segmentation-derived latent features across six echocardiographic datasets. Geometry-aware preprocessing substantially improved several poor transfer cases, suggesting that much of the apparent domain shift reflects field-of-view and framing inconsistencies rather than intrinsic acoustic differences alone. Intensity z-normalisation changed dataset separability by less than 0.005, indicating that brightness and contrast are not the dominant shift axis. Absolute Dice drop on held-out source-target pairs was predicted with an R-squared value of 0.612, an MAE of 0.082, and a Spearman rho of 0.681. The variant without LV and fan-shaped features retained approximately 70% of this explanatory power, supporting mask-free transfer-risk monitoring. The most informative discrepancy measure depended on the representation, with CMD strongest in z-normalised handcrafted features, with an absolute r of approximately 0.86 and an R-squared value of approximately 0.70; log-Wasserstein strongest in VAE space, with an r of approximately -0.90 and an R-squared value of approximately 0.81; and log-MMD strongest in LV-segmentation latent features, with an r of approximately -0.92 and an R-squared value of approximately 0.84. Apparent vendor effects were largely dataset-confounded. Echocardiographic domain shift is therefore structured and measurable, and its impact on segmentation can be partly reduced through geometry-aware preprocessing and anticipated using representation-specific transfer-risk estimation.

The growing number of medical vision foundation models highlights the need for effective model selection. However, mainstream selection methods rely on exhaustive fine-tuning, which is computationally expensive. Most of the existing Transferability Estimation (TE) metrics are primarily designed for image-level classification. They fail to preserve spatial relationships and fine-grained boundary details, which are crucial for the segmentation task. Additionally, while image-level tasks typically process a single feature vector per input, dense prediction tasks in 3D medical imaging require voxel-wise evaluation against dense annotations. To bridge these gaps, we propose a \textit{non-parametric, topology-driven} framework that estimates transferability directly from the alignment between the sparse 1-skeleton graph of dense features and semantic labels via Minimum Spanning Trees (MST). We decouple the alignment into two complementary geometric scales: Local Boundary-Aware Topological Consistency (LBTC) to assess boundary separability, where we prove that the MST leakage rate serves as a finite-sample lower bound on the Bayes error; and Global Representation Topology Divergence (GRTD) to evaluate the overall anatomical layout. Crucially, we formally justify a counterintuitive mechanism: Although without fine-tuning, the randomly initialized segmentation decoder acts as a topology-preserving spatial projector, reducing the variance of pairwise distance estimates and stabilizing global alignment evaluation. Fused via a task-adaptive gating mechanism, these dual metrics adapt to diverse clinical complexities. Evaluated on a large-scale benchmark of 114,000 3D medical volumes across diverse anatomical tasks, our topological framework achieves state-of-the-art transferability estimation with an average weighted Kendall (outperforming by 0.36) while accelerating evaluation by 56 times.

The growing availability of trajectory datasets has fueled major advances in data-driven motion prediction. Yet, models trained on one dataset often fail to generalize beyond their training domain as a result of differences in scene layouts, agent behaviors, and sensing conditions. A framework that learns latent representations of datasets and quantifies their similarity using distributional metrics is presented. This large-scale study covers 24 major datasets, including the most widely used motion-prediction benchmarks, and shows that the resulting transferability scores strongly correlate with cross-dataset model performance. The results provide practical guidance for dataset selection, pretraining, and large-scale foundation models for motion prediction, paving the way toward more generalizable and robust predictive systems.

Training-free source selection for LLM families with shared vocabularies arises in scientific string domains such as SMILES, protein, and genomic sequences, where candidate corpora share a tokenizer but differ in prediction targets. This creates an activation-dark regime: representation-similarity metrics can be uninformative without assumptions about label-conditioned error geometry, while classical update-geometry metrics are computationally prohibitive at vocabulary scale. We show that, in a shared-output head setting, representation metrics (e.g., CKA) are non-identifiable for transfer; models can share identical representations yet have orthogonal head updates. The key identity is that head Fisher alignment is exactly a cosine between kernel mean embeddings in the joint activation-error space, exposing activation, error, and coupling factors rather than requiring a materialized Fisher matrix. FisherSketch estimates this cosine directly in a single streaming pass, making K=128,256 head Fisher alignment practical with a 16 KB task signature (m=4096) and a 192 KB per-task streaming state, small enough to store next to a model hash, but encoding transfer-relevant update structure. Beyond source selection, the same signatures and marginals provide a diagnostic instrument for studying whether LLM task similarity is driven by activations, errors, or their coupling; shared-parameter and internal-layer validations, together with Llama-3.1-8B verbalizer-shift experiments, show that FisherSketch remains informative when activation similarity cannot distinguish tasks.

Cognitive tasks are organized by shared and specialized neural processes. Masked fMRI reconstruction provides a common self-supervised objective for quantifying transfer relations among task states, but existing reconstruction-based taskonomies mainly study one-to-one transfer from a single source task to a target. Here, we extend an fMRI cognitive taskonomy from single-source to multi-source transfer across 23 Human Connectome Project task states and use Boolean Integer Programming (BIP) to analyze budget-constrained task allocation. We train 1,127 task-specific and transfer models. Single-source transfer is directional and paradigm structured: motor states transfer well within the motor paradigm but provide limited support to most non-motor targets, consistent with a shared sensorimotor execution system and effector-specific representations. Multi-source transfer depends on the composition of the source set, suggesting that many-to-one task relations are not fully captured by pairwise taskonomy alone. Across supervision budgets, BIP repeatedly allocates direct supervision to several 0-back and 2-back working-memory states, although these states are not consistently the strongest individual sources. This pattern may reflect the integration of perceptual, attentional, and executive processes in working-memory tasks. Together, these findings reveal a cross-paradigm-limited motor cluster and working-memory states with high priority under the specified global allocation objective. Our study extends reconstruction-based fMRI taskonomy from one-to-one transfer to many-to-one task relations and budget-constrained task dependencies.

Different vision neural networks -- trained to classify, contrast, reconstruct, or match images to text -- should have correspondingly different internal representations. We report that they do not. After training, the top sixteen principal directions of variation inside thirteen modern vision encoders converge to the same sixteen-dimensional geometric object. We call this the cross-architecture substrate and study it with PCA, centred kernel alignment (CKA), and Pang 2026 calibration. The substrate transports across four visual domains (natural photographs, medical CT, satellite, microscopy) at median Procrustes-CKA 0.679, and across eight domains (adding sketches, depth, thermal infrared, astronomy) at 0.604, every pair >0.40. It survives Pang calibration globally (7.4x disc-vs-MAE separation, n=13,394) and locally (4.82-5.30, p<10^{-44}). It is not pixel statistics (0.263), not Gabor features (0.31), not a random projection (0.041), and emerges in the first 10% of training while accuracy keeps climbing. We deliver four applications: a label-free transferability filter beating LogME (3x faster, +0.15 Kendall-tau); a four-way domain detector (99.6% accuracy); a frozen low-shot probe (16 dims beat 768-dim DINOv2 by 3.78pp at N=50 labels per class); and a teacher-free distillation auxiliary matching trained-teacher KD on 33 pairs (7.56pp peak gain at 10% label fraction). The substrate does not cross modalities, does not help cross-paradigm distillation, and does not predict transfer quality (rho=0.08 against transfer accuracy).

Transfer learning presumes that a representation learned on source tasks carries structure that remains usable on related target tasks. Standard evaluations probe this through target accuracy or distributional discrepancy, yet leave unspecified which structural invariant is meant to transfer. We supply that invariant categorically. A source task category $\mathcal A$, a target task category $\mathcal B$, and a task-change functor $J:\mathcal A\to\mathcal B$ determine, for every invariant-valued source representation $F:\mathcal A\to\mathcal V$, the universal transferred invariant $\operatorname{Lan}J F$. Given a target invariant $G:\mathcal B\to\mathcal V$, we define the transfer discrepancy $\operatorname{Comp}J(F,G)=\sup{b\in\operatorname{Ob}(\mathcal B)} d{\mathcal V}\bigl((\operatorname{Lan}_J F)(b),G(b)\bigr)$, evaluating transfer not by an objectwise comparison of source and target, but by comparing the target invariant against the one forced by the prescribed task transformation. We prove finite cokernel formulas for $(\operatorname{Lan}_J F)(b)$ in chain complexes and persistence modules, indexed by the comma category $J\downarrow b$. For persistence-valued finite-type one-parameter invariants, the discrepancy is computed exactly by bottleneck distances between barcodes. Controlled experiments on neural latent point clouds then test whether the score recovers the correct task functor and flags representation collapses that preserve classification accuracy while destroying transfer-relevant topology.

Machine learning deployments in real-world wireless communication tasks face significant generalization challenges due to location and environment-specific signal structure, high diversity in data across different deployments, and limited availability of real-world data. Current approaches for assessing data similarity between training and inference (deployment) distributions, as well as evaluating model transferability, suffer from high computational costs and inconsistent performance, leaving critical model deployment and model life cycle management decisions without a principled foundation. To address this, we introduce a dataset similarity framework built upon the feature space of a pretrained wireless foundation model. Our method, LWM-CDE (Contrastive learning of Dataset Embedding), fine-tunes the dataset embeddings of the foundation model using a combination of contrastive and geometry-shaping losses, creating a structured manifold where distance reliably indicates transferability. Extensive experiments on wireless benchmarks show that LWM-CDE achieves stronger correlation with empirical transfer performance than existing metrics while being more computationally efficient. The learned representation space supports more effective and data-efficient decision-making for tasks like source dataset selection, label-aware augmentation, and budgeted pretraining, demonstrating its broader utility across different wireless communication applications.

Machine learning methods rely on data. However, gathering suitable data can be challenging due to availability constraints, cost, or the need for domain expertise. Expanding datasets with additional sources is a common response to limited data, yet this practice does not always improve downstream performance and can sometimes lead to a loss of performance, known as negative transfer. We propose RADAR, a simple, geometrically grounded metric for estimating cross-domain transferability in foundation models. RADAR analyzes the layer-wise evolution of representations by measuring angular alignments and relative changes in distance along layer-to-layer displacement trajectories, and by comparing empirical distributions of within-domain and cross-domain dynamics. We hypothesize that domain transferability is related to the divergence between these trajectory distributions. We evaluate the metric across multiple modalities, including cross-lingual sentiment classification with text embedding models and cross-domain image classification with foundation vision models. Across several settings, RADAR provides competitive predictive performance relative to existing transferability metrics on several vision and text benchmarks, with particularly strong results when domain transitions are smooth or cleanly separated. Our ablations further suggest that the effectiveness of transferability estimation depends on the geometry of the model's internal representation space, with different modalities favoring different topological formulations.

While open sourced Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have proliferated, selecting the optimal pretrained model for a specific downstream task remains challenging. Exhaustive evaluation is often infeasible due to computational constraints and data limitations in few shot scenarios. Existing selection methods fail to fully address this: they either rely on data-intensive proxies or use symmetric textual descriptors that neglect the inherently directional and model-specific nature of transferability. To address this problem, we propose a framework that grounds model selection in the internal functional dynamics of the visual encoder. Our approach represents each task via layer wise conductance and derives a target-conditioned block importance distribution through entropy regularized alignment. Building on this, we introduce Directional Conductance Divergence (DCD), an asymmetric metric that quantifies how effectively a source task covers the target's salient functional blocks. This allows for predicting target model rankings by aggregating source task ranks without direct inference. Experimental results on 48 VLMs across 21 datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving a 14.7% improvement in NDCG@5 over SWAB.