Weather Forecasting

Ask about this topic

Overview

Weather forecasting estimates how atmospheric conditions will evolve to support decisions ranging from daily planning to severe-weather warnings. Numerical weather prediction solves physical equations, while machine-learning approaches use transformers, graph networks, state-space models, and generative methods trained on reanalysis, satellite, radar, or station observations; data assimilation combines observations with model states. Current work also develops probabilistic ensembles, short-range radar nowcasts, regional downscaling, and forecasts for events such as tropical cyclones and heavy precipitation. A central challenge is producing reliable long-range and extreme-event forecasts while preserving physical consistency, representing local detail, and validating performance against real observations rather than reanalysis alone.

Latest papers

CardsList

178 papers34 papers in the last four weeks, up 55% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

Mar 23, 2026

Extending Precipitation Nowcasting Horizons via Spectral Fusion of Radar Observations and Foundation Model Priors

Precipitation nowcasting is critical for disaster mitigation and aviation safety. However, radar-only models frequently suffer from a lack of large-scale atmospheric context, leading to performance degradation at longer lead times. While integrating meteorological variables predicted by weather foundation models offers a potential remedy, existing architectures fail to reconcile the profound representational heterogeneities between radar imagery and meteorological data. To bridge this gap, we propose PW-FouCast, a novel frequency-domain fusion framework that leverages Pangu-Weather forecasts as spectral priors within a Fourier-based backbone. Our architecture introduces three key innovations: (i) Pangu-Weather-guided Frequency Modulation to align spectral magnitudes and phases with meteorological priors; (ii) Frequency Memory to correct phase discrepancies and preserve temporal evolution; and (iii) Inverted Frequency Attention to reconstruct high-frequency details typically lost in spectral filtering. Extensive experiments on the SEVIR and MeteoNet benchmarks demonstrate that PW-FouCast achieves state-of-the-art performance, effectively extending the reliable forecast horizon while maintaining structural fidelity. Our code is available at https://github.com/Onemissed/PW-FouCast.

Yuze Qin, Qingyong Li, Zhiqing Guo +3

Key Laboratory of Big Data & Artificial Intelligence in Transportation (Ministry of Education), Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, China · CMA Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology, Nanjing Innovation Institute for Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing, China

Precipitation NowcastingWeather ForecastingFeature Fusion
AskPDF
Mar 22, 2026

Sonny: Breaking the Compute Wall in Medium-Range Weather Forecasting

Weather forecasting is a fundamental problem for protecting lives and infrastructure from high-impact atmospheric events. Recently, data-driven weather forecasting methods based on deep learning have demonstrated strong performance, often reaching accuracy levels competitive with operational numerical systems. However, many existing models rely on large-scale training regimes and compute-intensive architectures, which raises the practical barrier for academic groups with limited compute resources. Here we introduce Sonny, an efficient hierarchical transformer that achieves competitive medium-range forecasting performance while remaining feasible within reasonable compute budgets. At the core of Sonny is a two-stage StepsNet design: a narrow slow path first models large-scale atmospheric dynamics, and a subsequent full-width fast path integrates thermodynamic interactions. To stabilize medium-range rollout without an additional fine-tuning stage, we apply exponential moving average (EMA) during training. On WeatherBench2, Sonny yields robust medium-range forecast skill, remains competitive with operational baselines, and demonstrates clear advantages over FastNet, particularly at extended tropical lead times. In practice, Sonny can be trained to convergence on a single NVIDIA A40 GPU in approximately 5.5 days.

Minjong Cheon

Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Sejong University, Seoul, South Korea

Weather ForecastingSpatiotemporal ForecastingTransformer
AskPDF
Mar 20, 2026

Enhancing AI-Based Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasting via Systematic Bias Correction

Tropical cyclones (TCs) pose severe threats to life, infrastructure, and economies in tropical and subtropical regions, underscoring the critical need for accurate and timely forecasts of both track and intensity. Recent advances in AI-based weather forecasting have shown promise in improving TC track forecasts. However, these systems are typically trained on coarse-resolution reanalysis data (e.g., ERA5 at 0.25 degree), which constrains predicted TC positions to a fixed grid and introduces significant discretization errors. Moreover, intensity forecasting remains limited especially for strong TCs by the smoothing effect of coarse meteorological fields and the use of regression losses that bias predictions toward conditional means. To address these limitations, we propose BaguanCyclone, a novel, unified framework that integrates two key innovations: (1) a probabilistic center refinement module that models the continuous spatial distribution of TC centers, enabling finer track precision; and (2) a region-aware intensity forecasting module that leverages high-resolution internal representations within dynamically defined sub-grid zones around the TC core to better capture localized extremes. Evaluated on the global IBTrACS dataset across six major TC basins, our system consistently outperforms both operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and most AI-based baselines, delivering a substantial enhancement in forecast accuracy. Remarkably, BaguanCyclone excels in navigating meteorological complexities, consistently delivering accurate forecasts for re-intensification, sweeping arcs, twin cyclones, and meandering events. Our code is available at https://github.com/DAMO-DI-ML/Baguan-cyclone.

Peisong Niu, Haifan Zhang, Yang Zhao +6

DAMO Academy, Alibaba Group Bellevue, USA

Tropical Cyclone Intensity ForecastingWeather ForecastingProbabilistic Forecasting
AskPDF
Mar 17, 2026

Target Concept Tuning Improves Extreme Weather Forecasting

Deep learning models for meteorological forecasting often fail in rare but high-impact events such as typhoons, where relevant data is scarce. Existing fine-tuning methods typically face a trade-off between overlooking these extreme events and overfitting them at the expense of overall performance. We propose TaCT, an interpretable concept-gated fine-tuning framework that solves the aforementioned issue by selective model improvement: models are adapted specifically for failure cases while preserving performance in common scenarios. To this end, TaCT automatically discovers failure-related internal concepts using Sparse Autoencoders and counterfactual analysis, and updates parameters only when the corresponding concepts are activated, rather than applying uniform adaptation. Experiments show consistent improvements in typhoon forecasting across different regions without degrading other meteorological variables. The identified concepts correspond to physically meaningful circulation patterns, revealing model biases and supporting trustworthy adaptation in scientific forecasting tasks. The code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Concept-Gated-Fine-tune-62AC.

Shijie Ren, Xinyue Gu, Ziheng Peng +6

Alibaba Group, Hangzhou, China

Extreme Weather ForecastingWeather ForecastingFine-TuningSelective Fine-Tuning
AskPDF
Mar 17, 2026

Implementation of tangent linear and adjoint models for neural networks based on a compiler library tool

This paper presents TorchNWP, a compilation library tool for the efficient coupling of artificial intelligence components and traditional numerical models. It aims to address the issues of poor cross-language compatibility, insufficient coupling flexibility, and low data transfer efficiency between operational numerical models developed in Fortran and Python-based deep learning frameworks. Based on LibTorch, it optimizes and designs a unified application-layer calling interface, converts deep learning models under the PyTorch framework into a static binary format, and provides C/C++ interfaces. Then, using hybrid Fortran/C/C++ programming, it enables the deployment of deep learning models within numerical models. Integrating TorchNWP into a numerical model only requires compiling it into a callable link library and linking it during the compilation and linking phase to generate the executable. On this basis, tangent linear and adjoint model based on neural networks are implemented at the C/C++ level, which can shield the internal structure of neural network models and simplify the construction process of four-dimensional variational data assimilation systems. Meanwhile, it supports deployment on heterogeneous platforms, is compatible with mainstream neural network models, and enables mapping of different parallel granularities and efficient parallel execution. Using this tool requires minimal code modifications to the original numerical model, thus reducing coupling costs. It can be efficiently integrated into numerical weather prediction models such as CMA-GFS and MCV, and has been applied to the coupling of deep learning-based physical parameterization schemes (e.g., radiation, non-orographic gravity wave drag) and the development of their tangent linear and adjoint models, significantly improving the accuracy and efficiency of numerical weather prediction.

Sa Xiao, Hao Jing, Honglu Sun +1

State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology (LaSW), Beijing, China · CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre (CEMC), Beijing, China

Weather ForecastingData AssimilationEfficient Neural Network Inference
AskPDF
Mar 16, 2026

FuXiWeather2: Learning accurate atmospheric state estimation for operational global weather forecasting

Numerical weather prediction has long been constrained by the computational bottlenecks inherent in data assimilation and numerical modeling. While machine learning has accelerated forecasting, existing models largely serve as "emulators of reanalysis products," thereby retaining their systematic biases and operational latencies. Here, we present FuXiWeather2, a unified end-to-end neural framework for assimilation and forecasting. We align training objectives directly with a combination of real-world observations and reanalysis data, enabling the framework to effectively rectify inherent errors within reanalysis products. To address the distribution shift between NWP-derived background inputs during training and self-generated backgrounds during deployment, we introduce a recursive unrolling training method to enhance the precision and stability of analysis generation. Furthermore, our model is trained on a hybrid dataset of raw and simulated observations to mitigate the impact of observational distribution inconsistency. FuXiWeather2 generates high-resolution (0.25∘0.25^{\circ}) global analysis fields and 10-day forecasts within minutes. The analysis fields surpass the NCEP-GFS across most variables and demonstrate superior accuracy over both ERA5 and the ECMWF-HRES system in lower-tropospheric and surface variables. These high-quality analysis fields drive deterministic forecasts that exceed the skill of the HRES system in 91% of evaluated metrics. Additionally, its outstanding performance in typhoon track prediction underscores its practical value for rapid response to extreme weather events. The FuXiWeather2 analysis dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18872728.

Xiaoze Xu, Xiuyu Sun, Songling Zhu +5

Shanghai Academy of Artificial Intelligence for Science, Shanghai, & 200232, China. · Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Incubation Institute, Fudan University, Shanghai & 200433, China. · FuXi Intelligent Computing Technology Co., Ltd., Shanghai & 200233, China.

Weather ForecastingData Assimilation
AskPDF
Mar 16, 2026

AGCD: Agent-Guided Cross-Modal Decoding for Weather Forecasting

Accurate weather forecasting is more than grid-wise regression: it must preserve coherent synoptic structures and physical consistency of meteorological fields, especially under autoregressive rollouts where small one-step errors can amplify into structural bias. Existing physics-priors approaches typically impose global, once-for-all constraints via architectures, regularization, or NWP coupling, offering limited state-adaptive and sample-specific controllability at deployment. To bridge this gap, we propose Agent-Guided Cross-modal Decoding (AGCD), a plug-and-play decoding-time prior-injection paradigm that derives state-conditioned physics-priors from the current multivariate atmosphere and injects them into forecasters in a controllable and reusable way. Specifically, We design a multi-agent meteorological narration pipeline to generate state-conditioned physics-priors, utilizing MLLMs to extract various meteorological elements effectively. To effectively apply the priors, AGCD further introduce cross-modal region interaction decoding that performs region-aware multi-scale tokenization and efficient physics-priors injection to refine visual features without changing the backbone interface. Experiments on WeatherBench demonstrate consistent gains for 6-hour forecasting across two resolutions (5.625 degree and 1.40625 degree) and diverse backbones (generic and weather-specialized), including strictly causal 48-hour autoregressive rollouts that reduce early-stage error accumulation and improve long-horizon stability.

Jing Wu, Yang Liu, Lin Zhang +13

Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, China · The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China · Jiangxi Science and Technology Normal University, Nanchang, China +5

Weather Forecasting
AskPDF
Mar 16, 2026

Integrating Weather Foundation Model and Satellite to Enable Fine-Grained Solar Irradiance Forecasting

Accurate day-ahead solar irradiance forecasting is essential for integrating solar energy into the power grid. However, it remains challenging due to the pronounced diurnal cycle and inherently complex cloud dynamics. Current methods either lack fine-scale resolution (e.g., numerical weather prediction, weather foundation models) or degrade at longer lead times (e.g., satellite extrapolation). We propose Baguan-solar, a two-stage multimodal framework that fuses forecasts from Baguan, a global weather foundation model, with high-resolution geostationary satellite imagery to produce 24-hour irradiance forecasts at kilometer scale. Its decoupled two-stage design first forecasts day-night continuous intermediates (e.g., cloud cover) and then infers irradiance, while its modality fusion jointly preserves fine-scale cloud structures from satellite and large-scale constraints from Baguan forecasts. Evaluated over East Asia using CLDAS as ground truth, Baguan-solar outperforms strong baselines (including ECMWF IFS, vanilla Baguan, and SolarSeer), reducing RMSE by 16.08% and better resolving cloud-induced transients. An operational deployment of Baguan-solar has supported solar power forecasting in an eastern province in China, since July 2025. Our code is accessible at https://github.com/DAMO-DI-ML/Baguan-solar.git.

Ziqing Ma, Kai Ying, Xinyue Gu +7

DAMO Academy, Alibaba Group, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China · College of Computer Science, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China · DAMO Academy, Alibaba Group, Bellevue, USA

Solar Irradiance ForecastingSolar Power ForecastingSpatiotemporal ForecastingTime Series ForecastingWeather ForecastingMultimodal Fusion
AskPDF
Mar 13, 2026

MR-GNF: Multi-Resolution Graph Neural Forecasting on Ellipsoidal Meshes for Efficient Regional Weather Prediction

Weather forecasting offers an ideal testbed for artificial intelligence (AI) to learn complex, multi-scale physical systems. Traditional numerical weather prediction remains computationally costly for frequent regional updates, as high-resolution nests require intensive boundary coupling. We introduce Multi-Resolution Graph Neural Forecasting (MR-GNF), a lightweight, physics-aware model that performs short-term regional forecasts directly on an ellipsoidal, multi-scale graph of the Earth. The framework couples a 0.25° region of interest with a 0.5° context belt and 1.0° outer domain, enabling continuous cross-scale message passing without explicit nested boundaries. Its axial graph-attention network alternates vertical self-attention across pressure levels with horizontal graph attention across surface nodes, capturing implicit 3-D structure in just 1.6 M parameters. Trained on 40 years of ERA5 reanalysis (1980-2024), MR-GNF delivers stable +6 h to +24 h forecasts for near-surface temperature, wind, and precipitation over the UK-Ireland sector. Despite a total compute cost below 80 GPU-hours on a single RTX 6000 Ada, the model matches or exceeds heavier regional AI systems while preserving physical consistency across scales. These results demonstrate that graph-based neural operators can achieve trustworthy, high-resolution weather prediction at a fraction of NWP cost, opening a practical path toward AI-driven early-warning and renewable-energy forecasting systems. Project page and code: https://github.com/AndriiShchur/MR-GNF

Andrii Shchur, Inna Skarga-Bandurova

Kyiv School of Economics · Oxford Brookes University

Weather ForecastingGraph Neural NetworksSpatiotemporal GNNs
AskPDF
Mar 13, 2026

3DTCR: Vortex-following generative reconstruction improves tropical cyclone intensity prediction from global AI weather forecasts

Global numerical weather prediction (NWP) and artificial intelligence (AI) models often underestimate tropical cyclone (TC) intensity, partly because coarse grids underresolve fine-scale three-dimensional inner-core structures that influence TC intensity evolution. Kilometer-scale NWP simulations can better resolve these structures but are too costly for operational use, which also makes high-resolution TC data limited. Here we construct a 3-km, TC-centered dataset for 2018--2024 using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and develop 3DTCR, a vortex-following generative framework that reconstructs three-dimensional TC structure from FuXi global forecasts. 3DTCR combines conditional flow matching (CFM) with two-stage training to learn a coarse-to-fine mapping from center-aligned reanalysis simulation pairs and then adapt it to forecast inputs through latent space alignment. Evaluated on 2024 western North Pacific (WNP) forecasts, 3DTCR reduces the root mean square error (RMSE) and the magnitude of the mean bias error (MBE) in maximum 10-m wind speed by 36.5% and 60.7% relative to FuXi, and by 8.9% and 28.2% relative to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts high-resolution system (ECMWF-HRES), respectively. Case studies suggest that reconstructions capture wind gradients between the eye and eyewall, vertical structure of horizontal winds, and vortex asymmetries, while inheriting the FuXi-predicted TC tracks. 3DTCR generates 5-day TC-centered atmospheric fields in approximately 3 minutes on one GPU, whereas a full-basin 3-km WRF simulation takes about 400 hours on 32 CPU cores. These results demonstrate that such a vortex-following generative reconstruction can add localized three-dimensional detail to global forecasts and improve TC intensity prediction without basin-wide kilometer-scale numerical integration.

Jun Liu, Xiaohui Zhong, Kai Zheng +5

Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Incubation Institute, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200433, China. · Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200438, China. · Shanghai Academy of Artificial Intelligence for Science, Shanghai, 200232, China.

Tropical Cyclone Intensity ForecastingWeather Forecasting3D ReconstructionPhysics-Informed Generative ModelingFlow-Based Generative Modeling
AskPDF
Mar 13, 2026

From AI Weather Prediction to Infrastructure Resilience: A Real-Time Correction-Downscaling Framework for Tropical Cyclone Impact Forecasting

This paper addresses a missing capability in infrastructure resilience: turning fast, global AI weather forecasts into asset-scale, actionable risk intelligence. We introduce the AI-based Correction-Downscaling Framework (ACDF), which combines real-time bias correction, terrain-informed downscaling, and fragility-based power transmission system risk assessment for tropical cyclone impacts. ACDF separates storm-scale bias correction from terrain-aware refinement, mitigating error propagation while restoring the sub-kilometer wind variability that governs structural loading. Tested on 11 typhoons affecting Zhejiang, China under leave-one-storm-out evaluation, ACDF produces 500 m wind fields over a province-scale domain, reduces station-scale wind-speed MAE by 38.8% relative to Pangu-Weather, and runs in approximately 25 s per 12-h cycle on a single GPU. In the Typhoon Hagupit case, ACDF reproduced observed high-wind tails, identified a coastal high-risk corridor, and flagged the transmission line that subsequently failed, demonstrating actionable guidance at tower and line scales. ACDF provides an end-to-end pathway from global AI weather forecasts to operational, impact-based early warning for critical infrastructure.

You Wu, Zhenguo Wang, Naiyu Wang

College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China · State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co., LTD. Electric power Research Institute China

Weather ForecastingClimate DownscalingPower Systems
AskPDF
Mar 11, 2026

Trustworthy Predictive Distributions for Tail Events with Semiparametric Diagnostic Transport Maps

Machine learning forecast systems are moving beyond point predictions to full predictive distributions for future outcomes y conditional on complex inputs x. However, these distributions are often locally miscalibrated, especially for high-stakes tail events where accurate uncertainty quantification is most needed to establish trust in models. Local miscalibration occurs because training data often lack examples of low-frequency events. The goal of this paper is to describe a simple, yet flexible framework that, at deployment, produces interpretable diagnostics and a robust correction mechanism of predictive distributions when train examples are limited. With this goal in mind, we introduce a semiparametric version of the Local Amortized Diagnostic and Reshaping (LADaR) framework that posits a covariate-dependent parametric model for a diagnostic transport map regressed nonparametrically on inputs to describe how to correct tail probabilities across the feature space to match calibration data. These maps provide the user with local, real-time diagnostics and a reshaped predictive distribution that can be related back to physical processes in the input space. We apply these semiparametric diagnostic transport maps to short-term tropical cyclone intensity forecasting to detect evolutionary modes linked to local miscalibration in the National Hurricane Center's forecasts and improve predictions for severe weather hazards.

Elizabeth Cucuzzella, Rafael Izbicki, Ann B. Lee

Department of Statistics and Data Science, Carnegie Mellon University · Department of Statistics, Federal University of Sao Carlos

Probability CalibrationProbabilistic ForecastingTropical Cyclone Intensity ForecastingUncertainty CalibrationWeather Forecasting
AskPDF
Mar 10, 2026

Developing Machine Learning-Based Watch-to-Warning Severe Weather Guidance from the Warn-on-Forecast System

While machine learning (ML) post-processing of convection-allowing model (CAM) output for severe weather hazards (large hail, damaging winds, and/or tornadoes) has shown promise for very short lead times (0-3 hours), its application to slightly longer forecast windows remains relatively underexplored. In this study, we develop and evaluate a grid-based ML framework to predict the probability of severe weather hazards over the next 2-6 hours using forecast output from the Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS). Our dataset includes WoFS ensemble forecasts valid every 5 minutes out to 6 hours from 108 days during the 2019--2023 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments. We train ML models to generate probabilistic forecasts of severe weather akin to Storm Prediction Center outlooks (i.e., likelihood of a tornado, severe wind, or severe hail event within 36 km of each point). We compare a histogram gradient-boosted tree (HGBT) model and a deep learning U-Net approach against a carefully calibrated baseline generated from 2-5 km updraft helicity. Results indicate that the HGBT and U-Net outperform the baseline, particularly at higher probability thresholds. The HGBT achieves the best performance metrics, but predicted probabilities cap at 60% while the U-net forecasts extend to 100%. Similar to previous studies, the U-Net produces spatially smoother guidance than the tree-based method. These findings add to the growing evidence of the effectiveness of ML-based CAM post-processing for providing short-term severe weather guidance.

Montgomery Flora, Samuel Varga, Corey Potvin +1

Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma · NOAA/OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma · AI Institute for Research on Trustworthy AI in Weather, Climate, and Coastal Oceanography +5

Extreme Weather ForecastingWeather ForecastingProbabilistic Forecasting
AskPDF
Mar 9, 2026

Designing probabilistic AI monsoon forecasts to inform agricultural decision-making

Hundreds of millions of farmers make high-stakes decisions under uncertainty about future weather. Forecasts can inform these decisions, but available choices and their risks and benefits vary between farmers. We introduce a decision-theory framework for designing useful forecasts in settings where the forecaster cannot prescribe optimal actions because farmers' circumstances are heterogeneous. We apply this framework to the case of seasonal onset of monsoon rains, a key date for planting decisions and agricultural investments in many tropical countries. We develop a system for tailoring forecasts to the requirements of this framework by blending systematically benchmarked artificial intelligence (AI) weather prediction models with a new "evolving farmer expectations" statistical model. This statistical model applies Bayesian inference to historical observations to predict time-varying probabilities of first-occurrence events throughout a season. The blended system yields more skillful Indian monsoon forecasts at longer lead times than its components or any multi-model average. In 2025, this system was deployed operationally in a government-led program that delivered subseasonal monsoon onset forecasts to 38 million Indian farmers, skillfully predicting that year's early-summer anomalous dry period. This decision-theory framework and blending system offer a pathway for developing climate adaptation tools for large vulnerable populations around the world.

Colin Aitken, Rajat Masiwal, Adam Marchakitus +7

Development Innovation Lab, University of Chicago, IL, 60637 · Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, IL, 60637 · Data Science Institute, University of Chicago, IL, 60637 +5

Weather ForecastingProbabilistic ForecastingAI-Assisted Decision Making
AskPDF
Mar 4, 2026

Two-Stage Photovoltaic Forecasting: Separating Weather Prediction from Plant-Characteristics

Several energy management applications rely on accurate photovoltaic generation forecasts. Common metrics like mean absolute error or root-mean-square error, omit error-distribution details needed for stochastic optimization. In addition, several approaches use weather forecasts as inputs without analyzing the source of the prediction error. To overcome this gap, we decompose forecasting into a weather forecast model for environmental parameters such as solar irradiance and temperature and a plant characteristic model that captures site-specific parameters like panel orientation, temperature influence, or regular shading. Satellite-based weather observation serves as an intermediate layer. We analyze the error distribution of the high-resolution rapid-refresh numerical weather prediction model that covers the United States as a black-box model for weather forecasting and train an ensemble of neural networks on historical power output data for the plant characteristic model. Results show mean absolute error increases by 11% and 68% for two selected photovoltaic systems when using weather forecasts instead of satellite-based ground-truth weather observations as a perfect forecast. The generalized hyperbolic and Student's t distributions adequately fit the forecast errors across lead times.

Philipp Danner, Hermann de Meer

University of Passau, Innstraße 41, Passau, Germany

Solar Power ForecastingSolar Irradiance ForecastingProbabilistic Time Series ForecastingWeather Forecasting
AskPDF
Feb 28, 2026

Phys-Diff: A Physics-Inspired Latent Diffusion Model for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

Tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting is critical for disaster warning and emergency response. Deep learning methods address computational challenges but often neglect physical relationships between TC attributes, resulting in predictions lacking physical consistency. To address this, we propose Phys-Diff, a physics-inspired latent diffusion model that disentangles latent features into task-specific components (trajectory, pressure, wind speed) and employs cross-task attention to introduce prior physics-inspired inductive biases, thereby embedding physically consistent dependencies among TC attributes. Phys-Diff integrates multimodal data including historical cyclone attributes, ERA5 reanalysis data, and FengWu forecast fields via a Transformer encoder-decoder architecture, further enhancing forecasting performance. Experiments demonstrate state-of-the-art performance on global and regional datasets.

Lei Liu, Xiaoning Yu, Kang Chen +4

University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China · Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, China

Tropical Cyclone Intensity ForecastingWeather ForecastingPhysics-Informed Diffusion ModelsLatent Diffusion ModelsSpatiotemporal ForecastingMultivariate Time Series Forecasting
AskPDF
Feb 26, 2026

Partial recovery of meter-scale surface weather

Near-surface weather varies over tens to hundreds of meters, yet remains unresolved in analyses and forecasts. We test whether this variation can be inferred without resolving atmospheric dynamics. Combining sparse weather stations, high-resolution Earth observation, and coarse atmospheric dynamics, we infer temperature, dewpoint, and wind at 30-m resolution across the contiguous United States. Against measurements held out in space and time, estimates reduce error by 11-28% relative to the strongest baseline. Within held-out 0.25∘0.25^\circ grid cells, we recover more spatial variance than baselines, explaining nearly half of temperature variability in the median cell. The method captures time-varying differences between locations and produces coherent patterns associated with topography and land cover. Beyond weather, our findings illustrate how sparse observations of a dynamical system can be combined with dense observations of persistent environmental structure to recover otherwise unresolved spatial variability.

Jonathan Giezendanner, Qidong Yang, Ruizhe Huang +7

Massachusetts Institute of Technology · Shell Information Technology · Allen Institute for AI +1

Weather Forecasting
AskPDF
Feb 26, 2026

Scaling Laws of Global Weather Models

Data-driven models are revolutionizing weather forecasting. To optimize training efficiency and model performance, this paper analyzes empirical scaling laws within this domain. We investigate the relationship between model performance (validation loss) and three key factors: model size (NN), dataset size (DD), and compute budget (CC). Across a range of models, we find that Aurora exhibits the strongest data-scaling behavior: increasing the training dataset by 10x reduces validation loss by up to 3.2x. GraphCast demonstrates the highest parameter efficiency, yet suffers from limited hardware utilization. Our compute-optimal analysis indicates that, under fixed compute budgets, allocating resources to more total training data yields greater performance gains than increasing model size. Furthermore, we analyze model shape and uncover scaling behaviors that differ fundamentally from those observed in language models: weather forecasting models consistently favor increased width over depth. These findings suggest that future weather models should prioritize wider architectures and larger effective training datasets to maximize predictive performance.

Yuejiang Yu, Langwen Huang, Alexandru Calotoiu +1

Department of Computer Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.

Scaling LawsWeather ForecastingAI Scaling Laws
AskPDF
Feb 26, 2026

A Synergistic Approach: Dynamics-AI Ensemble in Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

This study addresses a critical challenge in AI-based weather forecasting by developing an AI-driven optimized ensemble forecast system using Orthogonal Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations (O-CNOPs). The system bridges the gap between computational efficiency and dynamic consistency in tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting. Unlike conventional ensembles limited by computational costs or AI ensembles constrained by inadequate perturbation methods, O-CNOPs generate dynamically optimized perturbations that capture fast-growing errors of FuXi model while maintaining plausibility. The key innovation lies in producing orthogonal perturbations that respect FuXi nonlinear dynamics, yielding structures reflecting dominant dynamical controls and physically interpretable probabilistic forecasts. Demonstrating superior deterministic and probabilistic skills over the operational Integrated Forecasting System Ensemble Prediction System, this work establishes a new paradigm combining AI computational advantages with rigorous dynamical constraints. Success in TC track forecasting paves the way for reliable ensemble forecasts of other high-impact weather systems, marking a major step toward operational AI-based ensemble forecasting.

Yonghui Li, Wansuo Duan, Hao Li +3

State Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China · University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 101408, China · Shanghai Academy of Artificial Intelligence for Science (SAIS), Shanghai, 200232, China +5

Tropical Cyclone Intensity ForecastingWeather ForecastingProbabilistic Forecasting
AskPDF
Feb 25, 2026

AviaSafe: A Physics-Informed Data-Driven Model for Aviation Safety-Critical Cloud Forecasts

Current AI weather forecasting models predict conventional atmospheric variables but cannot distinguish between cloud microphysical species critical for aviation safety. We introduce AviaSafe, a hierarchical, physics-informed neural forecaster that produces global, six-hourly predictions of these four hydrometeor species for lead times up to 7 days. Our approach addresses the unique challenges of cloud prediction: extreme sparsity, discontinuous distributions, and complex microphysical interactions between species. We integrate the Icing Condition (IC) index from aviation meteorology as a physics-based constraint that identifies regions where supercooled water fuels explosive ice crystal growth. The model employs a hierarchical architecture that first predicts cloud spatial distribution through masked attention, then quantifies species concentrations within identified regions. Training on ERA5 reanalysis data, our model achieves lower RMSE for cloud species compared to baseline and outperforms operational numerical models on certain key variables at 7-day lead times. The ability to forecast individual cloud species enables new applications in aviation route optimization where distinguishing between ice and liquid water determines engine icing risk.

Zijian Zhu, Qiusheng Huang, Anboyu Guo +2

Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Incubation Institute, Fudan University · Shanghai Academy of Artificial Intelligence for Science · Shanghai Innovation Institute +2

Weather ForecastingSpatiotemporal Forecasting
AskPDF
Feb 17, 2026

Ensemble-size-dependence of deep-learning post-processing methods that minimize an (un)fair score: motivating examples and a proof-of-concept solution

Fair scores reward ensemble forecast members that behave like samples from the same distribution as the verifying observations. They are therefore an attractive choice as loss functions to train data-driven ensemble forecasts or post-processing methods when large training ensembles are either unavailable or computationally prohibitive. The adjusted continuous ranked probability score (aCRPS) is a fair and ensemble-size-unbiased scoring rule when applied to ensembles with forecast members that are interpretable as conditionally independent draws from an underlying predictive distribution. However, distribution-aware post-processing methods that introduce structural dependency between members can violate this assumption, such that aCRPS no longer functions as a fair scoring rule. We demonstrate this effect using two approaches designed to minimize the expected aCRPS of a finite ensemble: (1) a linear member-by-member calibration, which couples members through a common dependency on the sample ensemble mean, and (2) a deep-learning method, which couples members via transformer self-attention across the ensemble dimension. In both cases, the results are sensitive to ensemble size and apparent gains in aCRPS can correspond to systematic unreliability characterized by over-dispersion. We introduce trajectory transformers as a proof-of-concept that ensemble-size independence can be achieved. This approach is an adaptation of the Post-processing Ensembles with Transformers (PoET) framework and applies self-attention over lead time while preserving the conditional independence required by aCRPS. When applied to weekly mean T2mT_{2m} forecasts from the ECMWF subseasonal forecasting system, this approach successfully reduces systematic model biases whilst also improving or maintaining forecast reliability regardless of the ensemble size used in training or real-time forecasts.

Christopher David Roberts

ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom

Probabilistic ForecastingWeather Forecasting
AskPDF
Feb 16, 2026

PDE foundation models are skillful AI weather emulators for the Martian atmosphere

We show that AI foundation models that are pretrained on numerical solutions to a diverse corpus of partial differential equations can be adapted and fine-tuned to obtain skillful predictive weather emulators for the Martian atmosphere. We base our work on the Poseidon PDE foundation model for two-dimensional systems. We develop a method to extend Poseidon from two to three dimensions while keeping the pretraining information. Moreover, we investigate the performance of the model in the presence of sparse initial conditions. Our results make use of four Martian years (approx.~34 GB) of training data and a median compute budget of 13 GPU hours. We find that the combination of pretraining and model extension yields a performance increase of 34.4% on a held-out year. This shows that PDEs-FMs can not only approximate solutions to (other) PDEs but also anchor models for real-world problems with complex interactions that lack a sufficient amount of training data or a suitable compute budget.

Johannes Schmude, Sujit Roy, Liping Wang +10

IBM Research · NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, Al, USA · Earth System Science Center, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Al, USA +1

PDE Foundation ModelsWeather ForecastingPDE Surrogate ModelingPDE Operator LearningClimate Science
AskPDF
Feb 4, 2026

Symmetric Composition of Anisotropic Operators for Global Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Climate Forecasting

Accurate global Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) climate forecasting is critical for disaster preparedness and resource management, yet it remains challenging due to chaotic atmospheric dynamics. Despite advances in geometry-aware representations, existing methods do not specify how the zonal and meridional interactions that govern real atmospheric dynamics should be explicitly coordinated and composed, leaving an important architectural gap for S2S forecasting. In this paper, we propose AnisoCast, which explicitly models anisotropic global atmospheric dynamics for accurate S2S climate forecasting. It couples: (1) an Anisotropic Embedding strategy that tokenizes the global grid into latitudinal rings, preserving the integrity of zonal periodic structures; and (2) stacked Aniso Blocks that arrange latent Zonal and Meridional Operators in a weight-shared palindromic composition inspired by symmetric operator splitting. Extensive experiments on the ERA5 reanalysis dataset demonstrate that AnisoCast establishes a new state-of-the-art, significantly outperforming existing methods in both forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency.

Ziyu Zhou, Yuchen Fang, Weilin Ruan +4

The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou), Guangzhou, China · DAMO Academy, Alibaba Group, Hangzhou, China · The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong SAR, China

Climate ScienceTime Series ForecastingClimate ModelingWeather Forecasting
AskPDF
Dec 28, 2025

Long-Range Distillation: Distilling 10,000 Years of Simulated Climate into Long Timestep AI Weather Models

Accurate long-range weather forecasting remains a major challenge for AI models, both because errors accumulate over autoregressive rollouts and because reanalysis training datasets provide limited sampling of the slow modes of variability underpinning predictability. Most AI and all numerical weather prediction models are autoregressive, repeatedly applying short-lead forecasts to reach subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) or seasonal lead times, often causing instability and miscalibration. Long-timestep probabilistic models that generate long-range forecasts in a single step offer an alternative, but training on the 40-year reanalysis record leads to overfitting, suggesting orders of magnitude more data are required. We introduce long-range distillation, whereby a long-timestep probabilistic student'' model is trained to forecast directly at long-range using a huge synthetic dataset generated by an autoregressive teacher'' model. Using the Deep Learning Earth System Model (DLESyM) as teacher, we generate over 10,000 years of simulated climate to train student models across a range of timescales. In perfect-model experiments, the distilled models outperform climatology and approach their teacher's skill while replacing hundreds of autoregressive steps with a single timestep. In the real world, both a diffusion model student fine-tuned on ERA5 and a linear inverse model student with mixed DLESyM-ERA5 training achieve S2S forecast skill competitive with the ECMWF IFS ensemble, with synthetic pre-training providing improvements beyond ERA5-only training. This demonstrates the benefit of synthetic pre-training for both deep learning and classical data-driven methods, and represents the first demonstration that real-world skill can be improved by training on AI-generated synthetic data in volumes far exceeding the observational record.

Scott A. Martin, Noah Brenowitz, Dale Durran +1

NVIDIA Research, Santa Clara, CA, USA · School of Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA · Department of Atmospheric & Climate Science, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA

Weather ForecastingSpatiotemporal ForecastingKnowledge DistillationSynthetic Data PretrainingProbabilistic Forecasting
AskPDF
Oct 23, 2025

CSU-PCAST: A Dual-Branch Transformer Framework for medium-range ensemble Precipitation Forecasting

Accurate medium-range precipitation forecasting is essential for hydrometeorological risk management but remains challenging for both numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems and data-driven models. We present CSU-PCAST, a deep learning-based ensemble forecasting framework for global precipitation prediction. The model is trained using ERA5 atmospheric and surface variables at 0.25° resolution with precipitation labels from NASA's IMERG dataset. CSU-PCAST uses 57 prognostic variables and static geographical fields to predict both atmospheric states and 6-h accumulated precipitation. The framework employs a Swin Transformer backbone with stochastic noise conditioning, temporal embeddings, and a dual-branch decoder for precipitation and non-precipitation variables. During inference, CSU-PCAST is initialized from operational GFS analyses and generates 30 ensemble members out to 15 days using an autoregressive strategy. Evaluation against GEFS over the full year of 2023 shows improved precipitation forecast skill at short lead times, including higher Critical Success Index (CSI) and lower RMSE during the first several forecast days. CSU-PCAST also reduces GEFS wet bias for light precipitation and dry bias at heavier precipitation thresholds. Probabilistic verification demonstrates lower CRPS, higher Brier Skill Scores at several thresholds, and improved ensemble reliability relative to GEFS, although both systems remain underdispersive. A case study of the Sanba extreme precipitation event further shows improved spatial structure and exceedance-probability guidance. These results demonstrate the potential of CSU-PCAST for short-to-medium-range ensemble precipitation forecasting while highlighting remaining challenges in extreme precipitation prediction and ensemble calibration.

Tianyi Xiong, Haonan Chen, Kelly Mahoney +3

Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO · NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO

Precipitation ForecastingProbabilistic ForecastingWeather Forecasting
AskPDF
Oct 15, 2025

A Storm-Centric 250 m NEXRAD Level-II Dataset for High-Resolution ML Nowcasting

Machine learning-based precipitation nowcasting relies on high-fidelity radar reflectivity sequences to model the short-term evolution of convective storms. However, the development of models capable of predicting extreme weather has been constrained by the coarse resolution (1-2 km) of existing public radar datasets, such as SEVIR, HKO-7, and GridRad-Severe, which smooth the fine-scale structures essential for accurate forecasting. To address this gap, we introduce Storm250-L2, a storm-centric radar dataset derived from NEXRAD Level-II and GridRad-Severe data. We algorithmically crop a fixed, high-resolution (250 m) window around GridRad-Severe storm tracks, preserve the native polar geometry, and provide temporally consistent sequences of both per-tilt sweeps and a pseudo-composite reflectivity product. The dataset comprises thousands of storm events across the continental United States, packaged in HDF5 tensors with rich context metadata and reproducible manifests.

Andy Shi

Precipitation ForecastingPrecipitation NowcastingWeather Forecasting
AskPDF
Oct 10, 2025

CRPS-LAM: Probabilistic Regional Weather Forecasting with Continuous Ranked Probability Score

Limited-Area Models (LAMs) enable weather forecasting over regional domains at higher resolutions than what is computationally feasible for global models. At such high resolutions, machine learning approaches for weather prediction increasingly rely on ensemble methods to produce probabilistic forecasts. However, existing machine learning LAMs are not scalable due to relying on computationally costly diffusion models or inefficient graph neural networks. We tackle this by introducing a new hybrid CNN/GNN architecture, tailored to the LAM weather forecasting problem. Using this architecture, we construct the DET-LAM deterministic model, producing LAM forecasts both more efficiently and accurately than its graph-based competitor. We then tackle the ensemble forecasting problem, by using this architecture as a backbone for the generative model CRPS-LAM. CRPS-LAM is trained using a Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) objective, enabling efficient training and sampling in a single forward pass. This yields a speedup of ≈×39\approx \times 39 compared to diffusion-based baselines. We evaluate our approach on regional domains in northern Europe, demonstrating that CRPS-LAM produces skillful and well-calibrated forecasts across a range of atmospheric variables.

Erik Larsson, Joel Oskarsson, Tomas Landelius +1

Linköping University · ETH AI Center · SMHI & Linköping University

Graph Neural NetworksEnsemble LearningProbabilistic ForecastingSpatiotemporal ForecastingWeather Forecasting
AskPDF
Aug 25, 2025

Huracan: A skillful end-to-end data-driven system for ensemble data assimilation and weather prediction

Over the past few years, machine learning-based data-driven weather prediction has been transforming operational weather forecasting by providing more accurate forecasts while using a mere fraction of computing power compared to traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP). However, those models still rely on initial conditions from NWP, putting an upper limit on their forecast abilities. A few end-to-end systems have since been proposed, but they have yet to match the forecast skill of state-of-the-art NWP competitors. In this work, we propose Huracan, an observation-driven weather forecasting system which combines an ensemble data assimilation model with a forecast model to produce highly accurate forecasts relying only on observations as inputs. Huracan is not only the first to provide ensemble initial conditions and end-to-end ensemble weather forecasts, but also the first end-to-end system to achieve an accuracy comparable with that of ECMWF ENS, the state-of-the-art NWP competitor, despite using a smaller amount of available observation data. Notably, Huracan matches or exceeds the continuous ranked probability score of ECMWF ENS on 80.2% of the variable and lead time combinations. Our work is a major step forward in end-to-end data-driven weather prediction and opens up opportunities for further improving and revolutionizing operational weather forecasting.

Zekun Ni, Jonathan Weyn, Hang Zhang +7

Microsoft Corporation. · Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.

Ensemble LearningData AssimilationProbabilistic ForecastingWeather Forecasting
AskPDF