Channel State Prediction

Adaptive modulation and coding (AMC) improves the spectral efficiency of underwater acoustic (UWA) links, but its feedback is inevitably stale: sound propagates slowly, and by the time channel state information (CSI) arrives, the fast time-varying multipath channel has moved on. Predictive link adaptation therefore needs more than a point forecast: it needs a distribution over each candidate action's consequences. We propose PRB-WM, a physics-regularized Beta world model for predictive per-subcarrier link adaptation on real time-varying UWA channels. A persistence-anchored stochastic latent-space dynamics model learns how the channel evolves; a counterfactual outcome head evaluates, for every candidate modulation and coding scheme (MCS), a Beta-binomial distribution of bit errors on shared imagined futures; and a chance-constrained receding-horizon model predictive controller maximizes expected spectral efficiency subject to a bounded probability of violating the bit error rate (BER) target. To the best of our knowledge, PRB-WM is the first world model for UWA communications. In closed-loop replay of six measured sea-trial links from the public UWA Channel Library against a 24-method pool spanning the full methodological spectrum, PRB-WM attains a mean goodput 87% above the strongest baseline, ranks first on all six time-varying links at the longest lookahead, and is the only method whose realized frame risk decreases systematically with lookahead, meeting the BER-violation contract where no baseline does. Ablations confirm that rollout sampling dispersion is essential to the chance constraint and that the physics anchor is necessary for trainability.

This paper considers channel state information (CSI) prediction using neural networks for time-varying multi-antenna channels from noisy historical observations. The main challenge is to exploit temporal correlation while distinguishing channel evolution from observation noise. We propose JEPA-kMMVAE, which combines a joint-embedding predictive architecture with a k-memory Markov variational autoencoder to predict future CSI through temporally structured latent representations. The framework supports direct prediction and residual corrections relative to the latest latent state and noisy CSI observation. Simulation results show that the residual configuration outperforms the evaluated baselines at moderate and high input CSI signal-to-noise ratios, while sequence baselines remain more accurate under stronger noise.

Reliable prediction of time-varying channel state information (CSI) is essential for efficient wireless communication. Each CSI frame is a matrix-valued representation of the wireless channel response, and a sequence of CSI frames forms a temporal channel trajectory. Modern deep learning-based CSI predictors, however, often provide only point predictions and lack calibrated uncertainty estimates. This limitation is particularly problematic in multi-step CSI prediction, where the target is a sequence of future CSI matrices, and downstream decisions such as beamforming or scheduling may fail if any part of the predicted trajectory is unreliable. We propose trajectory-adaptive calibration and error profiling with conformal risk control (TRACE-CRC), a method for trajectory-aware uncertainty quantification in multi-step CSI prediction. TRACE-CRC constructs Frobenius-norm uncertainty balls around predicted CSI matrices and controls the risk that at least one future frame is uncovered. Instead of calibrating each future step independently, TRACE-CRC combines future-step-dependent error profiling, trajectory difficulty stratification, and learn-then-test (LTT) risk control. Empirically, TRACE-CRC achieves reliable trajectory-level coverage with substantially smaller uncertainty balls than conservative multi-step corrections, while avoiding the trajectory undercoverage of compact stepwise and adaptive conformal baselines.

Accurate and timely channel state information (CSI) is essential for next-generation wireless systems, yet existing works treat CSI compression and CSI prediction as separate problems, both in academia and in current 3GPP studies. Consequently, channel aging remains insufficiently addressed within standardized CSI feedback pipelines. In this article, we propose a unified compression-prediction framework that integrates Contrastive Predictive Coding (CPC) directly into the 3GPP-compliant CSI compression architecture. Instead of predicting high-dimensional CSI matrices, our approach forecasts future latent representations and jointly optimizes reconstruction fidelity and temporal predictive coherence via a combined 1-SGCS and InfoNCE objective. This design enables temporal representation learning without increasing feedback overhead. We present two variants: CPC-before-Compression, which performs autoregressive modeling on encoded features prior to quantization, and CPC-after-Compression, which shifts temporal modeling to the base-station to reduce the complexity of users' devices. Evaluations on 3GPP-compliant datasets from Nokia, Oppo, and CATT show that CPC-before-Compression achieves over 90% reconstruction accuracy with 32x lower decoder GFLOPs than the 3GPP baseline, while CPC-after-Compression preserves an identical encoder footprint and the same 64-bit feedback overhead. By unifying compression and prediction within a standardized pipeline, the proposed framework provides an age-aware, computationally efficient CSI feedback solution. The source code is publicly available at: https://github.com/AhmedRadwan02/cpc-3gpp

Accurate channel state information (CSI) prediction is essential for proactive beamforming and resource management in 5G massive MIMO systems, yet the deployment of high-accuracy transformer-based predictors on base-station hardware remains challenging because the most capable models carry upwards of 30,M parameters. This paper introduces Lightweight PCGAE-Net, which addresses the efficiency problem not by post-hoc compression but by correcting two architectural flaws in the current state of the art. The first is a sequential attention ordering bias: in CS3T-UNet, group-wise temporal attention (GTA) always operates on features that have already been transformed by cross-shaped spatial attention (CSA), distorting what temporal information GTA can capture. We remove this dependency by routing both attention modules to the same layer-normalized input and combining their independent outputs through a learned per-channel sigmoid CrossGate. The second flaw is an uncompressed bottleneck: applying full self-attention at the deepest encoder stage, where channel depth reaches $4C$, is quadratically expensive and carries redundant features. A Bottleneck AutoEncoder (BAE) with $1\times1$ convolutions halves this depth and uses an auxiliary reconstruction loss to prevent information collapse. Wrapping these components inside a shallower encoder-decoder with frequency-domain dimensionality reduction ($N_f\!=\!32$, $C\!=\!48$) produces a model with just 8.54,M parameters -- 58% fewer than the CS3T-UNet baseline -- that outperforms it by up to 3.26,dB at 5,km/h and 6.0,dB at 9,km/h in single-step prediction on QuaDriGa dataset.

To make cross-band channel prediction practical for AI-native RAN, algorithms must generalize across diverse environments and support real-time inference. Existing approaches achieve one but not both. To bridge this gap, we introduce GUIDE, a physics-guided deep unfolding framework that embeds wireless channel physics into differentiable layers. Without retraining in unseen environments, GUIDE achieves 2.75x beamforming gain than the deep learning-based baseline FIRE with only a slight increase in inference time, and 1.39x beamforming gain than the strongest model-based baseline R2F2 while running over 1610x faster.

Non-terrestrial networks (NTNs) are expected to play a pivotal role in sixth-generation (6G) systems by enabling ubiquitous connectivity and massive communication. In this context, channel prediction emerges as a key technique to improve the spectrum utilization efficiency by limiting the pilot overhead. However, many proposed predictors based on artificial intelligence (AI) are characterized by high inference complexity, posing challenges to onboard implementation. In this paper, we address the challenge of designing accurate yet computationally efficient channel prediction techniques tailored to low Earth orbit (LEO) NTNs, where strict power constraints limit model complexity, to enable spectral efficiency gains. We propose an iterative joint channel estimation and prediction framework in the context of 6G NTNs that significantly reduces pilot overhead by transmitting pilots only in the initial slot and relying on data-driven processing for subsequent slots. We introduce Data-driven Refinement and Iterative Forecast for wireless channel Tracking (DRIFT), a lightweight architecture that refines data-aided channel estimates and predicts future channel frequency responses with low computational cost and reduced error propagation. Two predictor variants based on convolutional and long short-term memory layers are investigated. Simulation results in an end-to-end simulation of an uplink LEO NTN scenario show that the proposed approach achieves up to 12% spectral efficiency gain compared to conventional pilot-based systems, with robustness to training-test mismatches and consistent performance across different channel models. Moreover, DRIFT requires fewer than 200k multiply-accumulate operations, making it suitable for on-board satellite implementation under stringent power constraints.

This paper proposes SpikeWFM, a novel hybrid architecture that integrates spiking neural networks (SNNs) with conventional artificial neural network (ANN)-based transformers for wireless foundation models (WFMs). Inspired by the noise-robust and energy-efficient information processing in the human brain, SpikeWFM aims to enhance the resilience of WFMs against noise and interference while maintaining strong generalization capabilities across diverse wireless scenarios. Drawing from the success of large language models, WFMs leverage self-supervised pre-training on large-scale datasets spanning various wireless environments to learn a unified embedding that supports a wide range of downstream tasks, including channel prediction, channel estimation, beam predition, positioning and etc. Such models typically outperform task-specific designs and exhibit superior adaptability to unseen conditions. However, existing WFMs remain vulnerable to realistic noise and interference in practical wireless systems. To address this limitation, we incorporate spiking neurons into the transformer-based WFM architecture. We provide a brief theoretical analysis demonstrating how the SNN-ANN hybrid effectively mitigates noise and interference through temporal sparsity and event-driven processing. Experimental results show that SpikeWFM consistently outperforms conventional ANN-based WFMs in both pre-training convergence and channel prediction accuracy. Additional results on communication and sensing tasks will be presented in the full journal version of this work.

Accurate channel state information (CSI) prediction is essential for improving the reliability and spectral efficiency of massive MIMO-OFDM systems in high-mobility scenarios. Existing deep learning methods struggle to jointly capture short-term local variations and long-range nonlinear dependencies in CSI sequences. To address this challenge, we propose ChannelKAN, a hybrid CNN-KAN channel prediction model with multi-scale frequency domain information enhancement. The key insight is that CNNs and Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) are naturally complementary: CNNs extract intra-time-step local spatial-frequency correlations, while KANs with learnable Chebyshev polynomial activations fit inter-time-step nonlinear temporal evolution in a holistic manner. Specifically, a dual-domain expansion module first generates complementary frequency-domain and delay-domain CSI representations. A multi-scale frequency information enhancement module then retains dominant spectral components at multiple scales to strengthen key features and suppress noise. Next, a CNN-KAN feature extraction module captures local correlations via cascaded convolutions and models long-range dependencies via Chebyshev KAN layers. Finally, a dual-domain fusion module adaptively integrates features from both branches to produce the prediction. Experiments on 3GPP-compliant QuaDRiGa datasets demonstrate that ChannelKAN outperforms RNN, LSTM, GRU, CNN, and Transformer baselines in normalized mean square error (NMSE), spectral efficiency (SE), and bit error rate (BER) across various velocities and signal-to-noise ratios. Ablation studies further confirm the effectiveness of each proposed module.

Recent works have demonstrated that attention-based transformer and large language model (LLM) architectures can achieve strong channel state prediction (CSP) performance by capturing long-range temporal dependencies across channel state information (CSI) sequences. However, these models suffer from quadratic scaling in sequence length, leading to substantial computational cost, memory consumption, and inference latency, which limits their applicability in real-time and resource-constrained wireless deployments. In this paper, we investigate whether selective state space models (SSMs) can serve as a hardware-efficient alternative for CSI prediction. We propose MambaCSP, a hybrid-attention SSM architecture that replaces LLM-based prediction backbones with a linear-time Mamba model. To overcome the local-only dependencies of pure SSMs, we introduce lightweight patch-mixer attention layers that periodically inject cross-token attentions, helping with long-context CSI prediction. Extensive MISO-OFDM simulations show that MambaCSP improves prediction accuracy over LLM-based approaches by 9-12%, while delivering up to 3.0x higher throughput, 2.6x lower VRAM usage, and 2.9x faster inference. Our results demonstrate that hybrid state space architectures provide a promising direction for scalable and hardware-efficient AI-native CSI prediction in future wireless networks.

The deep integration of communication with intelligence and sensing, as a defining vision of 6G, renders environment-aware channel prediction a key enabling technology. As a representative 6G application, vehicular communications require accurate and forward-looking channel prediction under stringent reliability, latency, and adaptability demands. Traditional empirical and deterministic models remain limited in balancing accuracy, generalization, and deployability, while the growing availability of onboard and roadside sensing devices offers a promising source of environmental priors. This paper proposes an environment-aware channel prediction framework based on multimodal visual feature fusion. Using GPS data and vehicle-side panoramic RGB images, together with semantic segmentation and depth estimation, the framework extracts semantic, depth, and position features through a three-branch architecture and performs adaptive multimodal fusion via a squeeze-excitation attention gating module. For 360-dimensional angular power spectrum (APS) prediction, a dedicated regression head and a composite multi-constraint loss are further designed. As a result, joint prediction of path loss (PL), delay spread (DS), azimuth spread of arrival (ASA), azimuth spread of departure (ASD), and APS is achieved. Experiments on a synchronized urban V2I measurement dataset yield the best root mean square error (RMSE) of 3.26 dB for PL, RMSEs of 37.66 ns, 5.05 degrees, and 5.08 degrees for DS, ASA, and ASD, respectively, and mean/median APS cosine similarities of 0.9342/0.9571, demonstrating strong accuracy, generalization, and practical potential for intelligent channel prediction in 6G vehicular communications.

We introduce a self-supervised framework for learning predictive and structured representations of wireless channels by modeling the temporal evolution of channel state information (CSI) in a compact latent space. Our method casts the problem as a world modeling task and leverages the Joint Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA) to learn action-conditioned latent dynamics from CSI trajectories. To promote geometric consistency and compositionality, we parameterize transitions using homomorphic updates derived from Lie algebra, yielding a structured latent space that reflects spatial layout and user motion. Evaluations on the DICHASUS dataset show that our approach outperforms strong baselines in preserving topology and forecasting future embeddings across unseen environments. The resulting latent space enables metrically faithful channel charts, offering a scalable foundation for downstream applications such as mobility-aware scheduling, localization, and wireless scene understanding.

Wireless networks are highly vulnerable to spoofing attacks, especially when attackers transmit consecutive spoofing packets. Conventional physical layer authentication (PLA) methods have mostly focused on single-packet spoofing attack. However, under consecutive spoofing attacks, they become ineffective due to channel evolution caused by device mobility and channel fading. To address this challenge, we propose a channel prediction-based PLA framework. Specifically, a Transformer-based channel prediction module is employed to predict legitimate CSI measurements during spoofing interval, and the input of channel prediction module is adaptively updated with predicted or observed CSI measurements based on the authentication decision to ensure robustness against sustained spoofing. Simulation results under Rayleigh fading channels demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves low prediction error and significantly higher authentication accuracy than conventional benchmark, maintaining robustness even under extended spoofing attacks.

Channel hopping (CS) communication systems must adapt to interference changes in the wireless network and to node mobility for maintaining throughput efficiency. Optimal scheduling requires up-to-date network state information (i.e., of channel occupancy) to select non-overlapping channels for links in interference regions. However, state sharing among nodes introduces significant communication overhead, especially as network size or node mobility scale, thereby decreasing throughput efficiency of already capacity-limited networks. In this paper, we eschew state sharing while adapting the CS schedule based on a learning-based channel occupancy prediction. We propose the MiLAAP attention-based prediction framework for machine learning models of spectral, spatial, and temporal dependencies among network nodes. MiLAAP uses a self-attention mechanism that lets each node capture the temporospectral CS pattern in its interference region and accordingly predict the channel occupancy state within that region. Notably, the prediction relies only on locally and passively observed channel activities, and thus introduces no communication overhead. To deal with node mobility, MiLAAP also uses a multi-head self-attention mechanism that lets each node locally capture the spatiotemporal dependencies on other network nodes that can interfere with it and accordingly predict the motion trajectory of those nodes. Detecting nodes that enter or move outside the interference region is used to further improve the prediction accuracy of channel occupancy. We show that for dynamic networks that use local CS sequences to support relatively long-lived flow traffics, the channel state prediction accuracy of MiLAAP is remarkably ~100% across different node mobility patterns and it achieves zero-shot generalizability across different periods of CS sequences.