Clinical Risk Prediction

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Overview

Clinical risk prediction estimates the likelihood and timing of outcomes such as deterioration, complications, readmission, or disease onset to support screening and care decisions. Methods range from logistic and Cox regression and clinical scores to gradient-boosted trees, survival models, temporal neural networks, and multimodal systems combining EHR data, notes, images, and wearable signals. Current work also explores calibration, uncertainty estimates, explainability, and privacy-preserving learning across hospitals. A central challenge is ensuring that strong results reflect genuine future risk and remain reliable across populations and settings, rather than being inflated by data leakage or weakened by distribution shift.

Latest papers

CardsList

218 papers21 papers in the last four weeks, down 5% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

  1. Improving Risk Stratification in Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy: A Novel Score Combining Echocardiography, Clinical, and Medication Data

    Mar 27, 2026Marion Taconné, Valentina D. A. Corino, Annamaria Del Franco +6Clinical Outcome PredictionCardiovascular Risk Prediction

    Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering (DEIB), Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milano, Italy · CardioTech Lab, IRCCS Centro Cardiologico Monzino, 20138 Milano, Italy · Cardiomyopathy Unit, Careggi University Hospital, 50134 Florence, Italy +2

  2. CORA: Generalizable coronary artery disease assessment and risk stratification from coronary CT angiography using pathology-centric representation learning

    Mar 25, 2026Jinkui Hao, Gorkem Durak, Halil Ertugrul Aktas +4Synthetic Data PretrainingCoronary Angiography

    Department of Radiology, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, USA · Department of Biomedical Engineering, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, USA · Department of Cardiology, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, USA +1

  3. PPGL-Swarm: Integrated Multimodal Risk Stratification and Hereditary Syndrome Detection in Pheochromocytoma and Paraganglioma

    Mar 23, 2026Zelin Liu, Xiangfu Yu, Jie Huang +6Medical DiagnosisClinical Risk Prediction

    Shanghai Jiao Tong University · The Chinese University of Hong Kong · Ruijin Hospital +1

  4. Cerebra: A Multidisciplinary AI Board for Multimodal Dementia Characterization and Risk Assessment

    Mar 23, 2026Sheng Liu, Long Chen, Zeyun Zhao +16Clinical Risk PredictionClinical Decision-Making

    Department of Biomedical Data Science, Stanford University · Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford University · Center for Data Science, New York University +13

  5. Representation-Level Adversarial Regularization for Clinically Aligned Multitask Thyroid Ultrasound Assessment

    Mar 22, 2026Dina Salama, Mohamed Mahmoud, Nourhan Bayasi +2Multi-Task LearningClinical Risk Prediction

    University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada · University of Calgary, Calgary, Canada

  6. Federated Learning with Multi-Partner OneFlorida+ Consortium Data for Predicting Major Postoperative Complications

    Mar 17, 2026Yuanfang Ren, Varun Sai Vemuri, Zhenhong Hu +6Clinical Risk PredictionClinical Outcome Prediction

    Intelligent Clinical Care Center, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL. · Department of Medicine, Division of Nephrology, Hypertension, and Renal Transplantation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL. · Department of Surgery, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL. +1

  7. CrossADR: enhancing adverse drug reactions prediction for combination pharmacotherapy with cross-layer feature integration and cross-level associative learning

    Mar 16, 2026Y. CheungClinical Risk PredictionGraph Neural Networks

    School of Mathematical Sciences and Shanghai Key Laboratory of PMMP, East China Normal University, 200241, Shanghai, China

  8. Multimodal Deep Learning for Early Prediction of Patient Deterioration in the ICU: Integrating Time-Series EHR Data with Clinical Notes

    Mar 16, 2026Binesh SadanandanClinical Risk PredictionLongitudinal EHR Modeling

  9. Deep Learning From Routine Histology Improves Risk Stratification for Biochemical Recurrence in Prostate Cancer

    Mar 15, 2026Clément Grisi, Khrystyna Faryna, Nefise Uysal +11Clinical Risk PredictionOncology

    Department of Pathology, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, The Netherlands · Department of Molecular and Translational Medicine, University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy · Surgical Pathology Unit, Verona University Hospital Trust, Verona, Italy +4

  10. Bridging the Visual-to-Physical Gap: Physically Aligned Representations for Fall Risk Analysis

    Mar 12, 2026Xianqi ZhangMotion Representation LearningClinical Risk Prediction

    Faculty of Computing, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China · Suzhou Research Institute, Harbin Institute of Technology, Suzhou 215104, China

  11. Survival Meets Classification: A Novel Framework for Early Risk Prediction Models of Chronic Diseases

    Mar 12, 2026Shaheer Ahmad Khan, Muhammad Usamah Shahid, Muddassar FarooqClinical PredictionClinical Risk Prediction

    CureMD Research, 80 Pine St 21st Floor, New York, NY 10005, United States

  12. PRIME-CVD: A Parametrically Rendered Informatics Medical Environment for Education in Cardiovascular Risk Modelling

    Mar 11, 2026Nicholas I-Hsien Kuo, Marzia Hoque Tania, Blanca Gallego +1Medical EducationSynthetic Data Generation

    Centre for Big Data Research in Health (CBDRH), The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia

  13. Automatic Cardiac Risk Management Classification using large-context Electronic Patients Health Records

    Mar 10, 2026Jacopo Vitale, David Della Morte, Luca Bacco +5Clinical Risk PredictionCardiovascular Risk Prediction

    Research Unit of Intelligent Health Technologies, Universit`a Campus Bio-Medico di Roma, Rome, Italy. · Central Diagnostic Laboratory, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.

  14. Data-Driven Priors for Uncertainty-Aware Risk Prediction of Clinical Deterioration using Multimodal Data

    Mar 9, 2026L. Julián Lechuga López, Tim G. J. Rudner, Farah E. ShamoutBayesian Neural NetworksUncertainty Quantification

    Tandon School of Engineering, New York University · New York University Abu Dhabi · University of Toronto

  15. Learning Clinical Representations Under Systematic Distribution Shift

    Mar 7, 2026Yuanyun Zhang, Shi LiOOD GeneralizationInvariant Representation Learning

    Columbia University

  16. Early Warning of Intraoperative Adverse Events via Transformer-Driven Multi-Label Learning

    Mar 5, 2026Xueyao Wang, Xiuding Cai, Honglin Shang +2Clinical Risk PredictionMulti-Label Classification

    Chengdu Institute of Computer Application, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610213, China · University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China · China Zhenhua Research Institute Co., Ltd., Guiyang 550014, China

  17. Enhanced Atrial Fibrillation Prediction in ESUS Patients with Hypergraph-based Pre-training

    Mar 2, 2026Yuzhang Xie, Yuhua Wu, Ruiyu Wang +3Clinical Risk PredictionHypergraph Learning

    Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA

  18. A Robust Framework for Secure Cardiovascular Risk Prediction: An Architectural Case Study of Differentially Private Federated Learning

    Feb 28, 2026Rodrigo Tertulino, Laércio AlencarCardiovascular Risk PredictionDifferentially Private Federated Learning

    Federal Institute of Education, Science, and Technology of Rio Grande do Norte (IFRN), Natal 3030-290, RN, Brazil

  19. Tipping the Balance: Impact of Class Imbalance Correction on the Performance of Clinical Risk Prediction Models

    Feb 27, 2026Amalie Koch Andersen, Hadi Mehdizavareh, Arijit Khan +8Class-Imbalanced LearningProbability Calibration

    Medical Informatics and Image Analysis, Department of Health Science and Technology, Aalborg University, Denmark. · Medical & Translational Science, Novo Nordisk A/S, Søborg, Denmark · Department of Computer Science, Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark +10

  20. Diagnostics for Individual-Level Prediction Instability in Machine Learning for Healthcare

    Feb 27, 2026Elizabeth W. Miller, Jeffrey D. BlumeClinical Risk PredictionClinical Decision-Making

    School of Data Science University of Virginia Charlottesville

  21. A Data-Driven Approach to Support Clinical Renal Replacement Therapy

    Feb 26, 2026Alice Balboni, Luis Escobar, Andrea Manno +5HealthcareClinical Risk Prediction

    Department of Applied Science and Technology Politecnico di Torino Turin, Italy · Department of Inf. Eng., Computer Science and Mathematics University of L’Aquila L’Aquila, Italy · Dipartimento di Scienze della Salute University of Florence Florence, Italy +1

  22. Enhancing Framingham Cardiovascular Risk Score Transparency through Logic-Based XAI

    Feb 25, 2026Emannuel L. de A. Bezerra, Luiz H. T. Viana, Vinícius P. Chagas +3Explainable Artificial IntelligenceClinical Decision Support

    Instituto Federal do Ceará (IFCE), Maracanaú, Ceará Brazil

  23. Reliable XAI Explanations in Sudden Cardiac Death Prediction for Chagas Cardiomyopathy

    Feb 25, 2026Vinícius P. Chagas, Luiz H. T. Viana, Mac M. da S. Carlos +4Clinical Risk PredictionMortality Prediction

    Federal Institute of Education and Technology of Ceara, Maracanau, Ceara, Brazil · Universidade Feferal do Ceará (UFC), CE · Edson Saad Heart Institute – Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

  24. Early Risk Stratification of Dosing Errors in Clinical Trials Using Machine Learning

    Feb 25, 2026Félicien Hêche, Sohrab Ferdowsi, Anthony Yazdani +2Clinical Risk PredictionClinical Prediction

    Department of Radiology and Medical Informatics, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland · Actelion Pharmaceuticals Ltd, Basel, Switzerland

  25. Integrating Machine Learning Ensembles and Large Language Models for Heart Disease Prediction Using Voting Fusion

    Feb 25, 2026Md. Tahsin Amin, Tanim Ahmmod, Zannatul Ferdus +5Cardiovascular Risk PredictionClinical Risk Prediction

    Faculty of Computer Science & Engineering, Patuakhali Science & Technology University, Bangladesh · Dept. of Electrical & Electronic Engineering, Rajshahi University of Engineering & Technology, Bangladesh · Dept. of Industrial & Production Engineering, Ahsanullah University of Science & Technology, Bangladesh +3

  26. Improving Generalizability of Hip Fracture Risk Prediction via Domain Adaptation Across Multiple Cohorts

    Feb 20, 2026Shuo Sun, Meiling Zhou, Chen Zhao +8Cross-Dataset GeneralizationClinical Risk Prediction

    Department of Mathematical Sciences, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI, USA · Department of Statistics, Grand Valley State University, Allendale, MI, USA · Department of Computer Science, Kennesaw State University, Marietta, GA, USA +6

  27. The Sound of Death: Deep Learning Reveals Vascular Damage from Carotid Ultrasound

    Feb 19, 2026Christoph Balada, Aida Romano-Martinez, Payal Varshney +10Cardiovascular Risk PredictionClinical Risk Prediction

    German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI), 67663 Kaiserslautern, Germany · RPTU University Kaiserslautern-Landau, 67663 Kaiserslautern, Germany · University Medical Center of the Johannes Gutenberg-University Mainz, Germany +1

  28. Construction of a classification model for dementia among Brazilian adults aged 50 and over

    Feb 18, 2026F. S. Menezes, M. C. F. G. Barretto, E. Q. C. Garcia +2Clinical Risk Prediction

    Instituto de Medicina Integral Professor Fernando Figueira (IMIP) · Future Tech · Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco (UFRPE)

  29. Exploring Drug Safety Through Knowledge Graphs: Protein Kinase Inhibitors as a Case Study

    Feb 17, 2026David Jackson, Michael Gertz, Jürgen HesserClinical Risk PredictionBiomedical KGs

    Institute of Informatics, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands · Institute of Computer Science, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany · Data Analysis and Modeling in Medicine, Mannheim Institute for Intelligent Systems in Medicine (MIISM), Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, Mannheim, Germany

  30. In-Hospital Stroke Risk-State Classification from PPG-Derived Hemodynamic Features

    Feb 10, 2026Jiaming Liu, Cheng Ding, Jian Wu +2PhotoplethysmographyClinical Risk Prediction

    College of Artificial Intelligence, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, China · State Key Laboratory of Transvascular Implantation Devices and TIDRI, Hangzhou 310009, China · Zhejiang Key Laboratory of Medical Imaging Artificial Intelligence, Hangzhou 310058, China +1