Conformal Prediction

Latest papers 334

55 papers in the last four weeks, up 57% on the four weeks before. 0.3% of all new papers.

Set-Preserving Calibration from Conformal P-Values to E-Values
Jun 2, 2026Nabil Alami, Jad Zakharia, Souhaib Ben TaiebE-Values Conformal Prediction
Department of Statistics and Data Science, MBZUAI · Ecole Normale Superieure de Cachan · Department of Computer Science, University of Mons
The Ghost Annotator: a Framework to Explore Human Label Variation in Content Moderation through Conformal Prediction
Jun 1, 2026Mirko Lai, Alessandra Urbinati, Simona Frenda +2Annotator Disagreement Conformal Prediction
Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland · aequa-tech, Torino, Italy · Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA +2
Conformal Risk Prediction for Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Using Gradient Boosting with Distribution-Free Coverages
May 31, 2026Xinze ZhangConformal Prediction Clinical Risk Prediction
University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90007, USA
Multi-Agent Conformal Prediction with Personalized Statistical Validity
May 30, 2026Martin V. Vejling, Christophe A. N. Biscio, Adrien Mazoyer +2Weighted Conformal Prediction Conformal Prediction
Department of Electronic Systems Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark · Department of Mathematical Sciences Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark · Institut de Mathématiques de Toulouse Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France
DistMatch: Adaptive Binning via Distribution Matching for Robust Sequential Conformal Prediction
May 30, 2026Enver Menadjiev, Jihyeon Seong, Jisu Yeo +1Distribution Shift Robustness Conformal Prediction
Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, South Korea · INEEJI, South Korea
EnergyMamba: An Uncertainty-Aware Graph-Enhanced Selective State Space Model for Energy Consumption Prediction
May 30, 2026Dahai Yu, Rongchao Xu, Lin Jiang +1Selective SSMs Time Series Forecasting
Florida State University · Tallahassee, Florida, USA
Parameter-Free and Group Conditional Online Conformal Prediction
May 29, 2026Beepul Bharti, Ambar Pal, Jacopo Teneggi +1Uncertainty Quantification Group-Conditional Conformal Prediction
1Johns Hopkins University · 2Amazon Responsible AI
Conformal Reliability: A New Evaluation Metric for Conditional Generation
May 29, 2026Yachen Gao, Xinwei Sun, Yikai Wang +4Uncertainty Quantification Conformal Prediction
Institute of Science and Technology for Brain-Inspired Intelligence, Fudan University, Shanghai, China · Shanghai Innovation Institute, Shanghai, China · School of Data Science, Fudan University, Shanghai, China +2
BOKBO (Best of K Bad Options): Calibrated Abstention for VLA Policies
May 28, 2026Anya Singh, Cabrel Happi, Jai Relan +2Selective Prediction Conformal Prediction
Relling Systems
Leave a Window Out: Modifying the Jackknife for Predictive Inference in Time Series
May 28, 2026Hanyang Jiang, Rina Foygel Barber, Ashwin Pananjady +1Conformal Prediction Regression Prediction Intervals
Schools of Industrial and Systems Engineering⋆and Electrical and Computer Engineering†, Georgia Tech · Department of Statistics, University of Chicago‡
Conformal Certification of Reasoning Trace Prefixes
May 28, 2026Matt Y. Cheung, Ashok Veeraraghavan, Hanjie Chen +1Conformal Prediction Language Model Calibration
Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering, Rice University · Department of Computer Science, Rice University
Anytime-Valid Federated Conformal RAG for LLM Swarms
May 27, 2026Prasanjit Dubey, Xiaoming HuoRetrieval-Augmented Generation Anytime-Valid Inference
H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332, U.S.A.
Conf-Gen: Conformal Uncertainty Quantification for Generative Models
May 27, 2026Gabriel Loaiza-Ganem, Kevin Zhang, Wei Cui +2Uncertainty Quantification Conformal Prediction
Layer 6 AI, Toronto, Canada
High Performance, Low Reliability: Uncertainty Benchmarking for Tabular Foundation Models
May 27, 2026José Lucas De Melo Costa, Fabrice Popineau, Arpad Rimmel +1Tabular Foundation Models Uncertainty Quantification
CentraleSup´elec, Universit´e Paris-Saclay Gif-sur-Yvette - France
SAFEVPR: Patch-Based Conformal Verification for Safe Cross-Condition Sequence Visual Place Recognition
May 27, 2026Ha Sier, Jiaqiang Zhang, Zhuo Zou +2Distribution Shift Visual Place Recognition
Turku Intelligent Embedded and Robotic Systems (TIERS) Lab, University of Turku, Turku, Finland · School of Information Science and Technology, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
Distribution-Aware Conformal Prediction: A Framework for generating efficient prediction intervals for time series
May 26, 2026Daniel Schweizer, Peter Kuhn, Jayant Sharma +3Conformal Prediction Uncertainty Calibration
Fraunhofer Institute for Highspeed Dynamics, Ernst-Mach-Institut, EMI Freiburg, Germany
Structure-Adaptive Conformal Inference for Large-Scale Out-of-Distribution Testing
May 26, 2026Rongyi Sun, Wenguang Sun, Zinan ZhaoFDR Control Conformal Prediction
Center for Data Science and School of Mathematical Sciences, Zhejiang University. · Center for Data Science and School of Management, Zhejiang University.
MiRD: Reliable Set-Valued Prediction for Open-Ended Question Answering via Miscoverage Risk Decomposition
May 25, 2026Anqi Hu, Zhiyuan Wang, Zijun Jia +1LLM Hallucination Mitigation Set Prediction
University of Electronic Science and Technology of China · Beihang University
Conformalised imprecise inference for robust extrapolation under limited data
May 25, 2026Yu Chen, Scott FersonDistribution Shift Robustness Uncertainty Quantification
Institute for Risk and Uncertainty · University of Liverpool · Liverpool
Benchmarking non-conformity score functions in conformal prediction
May 24, 2026Sol Erika BomanSet Prediction Conformal Prediction
Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet · Department of Molecular Medicine and Surgery, Karolinska Institutet
Cluster Frequency Conformal Prediction for Local Coverage
May 24, 2026Tomer Lavi, Bracha Shapira, Nadav RappoportConformal Prediction Multiclass Classification
Institute of Applied AI Research (AAIR) Faculty of Computer and Information Science Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva 84105, ISRAEL · Institute for Interdisciplinary Computational Science (ICS) Faculty of Computer and Information Science Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva 84105, ISRAEL
Empirical Bayes Conformal Prediction for Vision and Language Models
May 22, 2026Jiapeng Zeng, Yogesh Prabhu, Zhanpeng Zeng +2VLM Evaluation Empirical Bayes
University of Wisconsin–Madison · University of California San Diego · Xiamen University
CausalGuard: Conformal Inference under Graph Uncertainty
May 21, 2026Vikash Singh, Weicong Chen, Debargha Ganguly +12Causal Effect Estimation Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation
1Case Western Reserve University
Calibration, Uncertainty Communication, and Deployment Readiness in CKD Risk Prediction: A Framework Evaluation Study
May 20, 2026Michael O. EnioladeUncertainty Quantification Conformal Prediction
University of the Cumberlands
A Deployment Audit of Release-Side Risk in Conformal Triage under Prevalence Shift
May 20, 2026Chengze Li, Xiao Liu, Hanrong Zhang +7Distribution Shift Algorithmic Auditing
University of Illinois Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA · Manteia Technologies Co., Ltd, Xiamen, China · University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL, USA +1
Provable Joint Decontamination for Benchmarking Multiple Large Language Models
May 20, 2026Zhenlong Liu, Hao Zeng, Hongxin WeiLLM Evaluation Benchmark Contamination
Department of Statistics and Data Science, Southern University of Science and Technology · Shanghai Innovation Institute
Everywhere Valid Bounds on False Discovery Proportions in Conformal Inference
May 20, 2026Ziang Song, Ying Jin, Emmanuel J. CandèsFDR Control Conformal Prediction
Department of Statistics, Stanford University · Department of Statistics and Data Science, University of Pennsylvania · Department of Mathematics, Stanford University
Online Conformal Prediction with Corrupted Feedback
May 19, 2026Bowen Wang, Matteo Zecchin, Osvaldo SimeoneConformal Prediction Uncertainty Calibration
Department of Engineering, King’s College London, WC2R 2LS London, U.K. · Communication Systems Department, EURECOM, 06410 Sophia Antipolis, France · Institute for Intelligent Networked Systems, Northeastern University London, E1W 1LP London, U.K.
CASCADE Conformal Prediction: Uncertainty-Adaptive Prediction Intervals for Two-Stage Clinical Decision Support
May 19, 2026Ricardo Diaz-Rincon, Muxuan Liang, Adolfo Ramirez-Zamora +1Clinical Decision Support Conformal Prediction
University of Florida · MD Anderson Cancer Center · University of Louisville
Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification for Continuous AI Agent Evaluation
May 19, 2026Yuxuan Gao, Megan Wang, Yi Ling YuUncertainty Quantification AI Agent Evaluation
OpenMesh · University of Pennsylvania · Columbia Univer

Jun 2, 2026J/K move · Enter open · S save

Set-Preserving Calibration from Conformal P-Values to E-Values

Nabil Alami, Jad Zakharia, Souhaib Ben Taieb

Department of Statistics and Data Science, MBZUAI · Ecole Normale Superieure de Cachan · Department of Computer Science, University of Mons

E-Values Conformal Prediction

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Standard conformal prediction (CP) procedures are typically formulated in terms of p-values, but reliance on p-values alone limits flexibility, for example, when combining dependent evidence across models or data splits. Recent work has explored e-value formulations for conformal inference, yet a direct connection between p- and e-value formulations in CP has been missing, especially regarding their statistical efficiency. We first identify limitations of classical p-to-e calibrators in the CP setting, showing that they are not set-preserving and can lead to overly conservative prediction sets. To address this, we propose a novel P2E calibrator that converts conformal p-values into e-values without altering the prediction set induced by the original conformal p-value. We establish both theoretically and empirically that our calibrator can yield significant efficiency gains over existing p-to-e calibrators. This e-value formulation enables principled use of recent advances in e-value merging and randomization, where we demonstrate its impact in two applications: cross-conformal prediction (CCP), whose variants typically provide only approximate

1-2α

coverage, and conformal aggregation (CA). In both cases, our e-value-based methods satisfy the desired

1-α

coverage guarantee while improving efficiency over standard baselines. More broadly, our approach expands the flexibility of CP and opens new directions for efficient, distribution-free uncertainty quantification.