Continuous Glucose Monitoring

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2 papers in the last 28 days · 0.0% of indexed attention

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Period ending 2026-09-14

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A weekly snapshot of new work published in Continuous Glucose Monitoring.

21 papers

Latest in Continuous Glucose Monitoring

Sep 11, 2026stat.ML

Evaluating Time-Series Foundation Models and Multimodal Dietary Context for CGM Forecasting

Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) provides high-frequency measurements of glucose dynamics and enables short-term glucose forecasting for diabetes management. Although time-series foundation models have shown strong general forecasting ability, their effectiveness for CGM prediction and the added value of multimodal dietary context remain unclear. We conduct a comprehensive empirical study using eight public CGM datasets spanning Type 1 diabetes, Type 2 diabetes, and non-diabetes populations. Under a unified protocol across multiple context lengths and prediction horizons, zero-shot foundation models did not consistently outperform strong task-specific baselines such as Elastic Net and PatchTST. In contrast, lightweight fine-tuning substantially improved forecasting performance. For example, fine-tuned Chronos-Bolt reduced RMSE by 6.5%-18.4% in the T1D cohort and by 8.6%-18.2% in the non-diabetes/T2D cohort, with comparable improvements in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution test settings. We further evaluate multimodal dietary context using CGMacros, which provides temporally aligned CGM signals, food images, and macronutrient records. A residual-based fusion framework reduced overall RMSE by approximately 3% and postprandial RMSE by approximately 15% relative to the CGM-only baseline. Moreover, Chronos-based CGM representations were more strongly correlated with observed postprandial glucose increments than representations from LSTM and CatBoost, even after those models incorporated additional dietary modalities, suggesting that pretrained temporal representations better preserve meal-induced excursion patterns. These findings show that foundation models require CGM-specific adaptation for reliable forecasting and that dietary context provides clinically meaningful signals beyond CGM alone, especially during postprandial periods.
Bowen Zhang, Hsiu-Wen Cheng, Hongyu Yang +9
Sep 8, 2026cs.AI

It's All in the Way You Say It: The Role of Information Representation in LLM-Based Glycemic-Event Prediction

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being investigated for physiological time-series prediction, yet their effectiveness may depend not only on the model itself, but also on how physiological information is represented and presented at inference time. This study investigates prompt-based general-purpose LLMs for postprandial hyperglycemia and hypoglycemia prediction in individuals with type 1 diabetes. Using the OhioT1DM dataset, we evaluate multiple open-weight LLMs under zero-shot and few-shot inference across prediction horizons of 30, 60, and 90 minutes. The analysis varies both the textual representation of the available physiological information and the amount of information exposed to the model, ranging from glucose observations alone to derived descriptors and additional contextual variables related to insulin, meals, carbohydrates, and physical activity. Performance is compared with conventional patient-specific supervised models and with Gluco-LLM, a language-model-based architecture explicitly adapted to glucose time-series forecasting. Results show a marked task-dependent behavior. Conventional supervised models achieve the strongest performance for hyperglycemia prediction, whereas the best observed prompt-based LLM configurations improve performance for hypoglycemia across all investigated horizons. The effectiveness of prompt-based inference is also strongly influenced by how physiological information is represented, while providing additional contextual information does not lead to a systematic improvement. Overall, these findings highlight physiological information representation as a central design factor in prompt-based LLM approaches to glycemic-event prediction.
Andrea Apicella, Pasquale Arpaia, Matteo Orefice +2
Aug 3, 2026cs.HC

Reassessing the Feasibility of PPG-Based Non-Invasive Blood Glucose Level Estimation

Non-invasive blood glucose level (BGL) estimation from photoplethysmography (PPG) holds great promise for wearable health monitoring, but results across studies are hard to compare due to inconsistent datasets, data leakage, and non-standardized evaluation metrics. We present the first reproducible, extensible evaluation pipeline and use it to reassess five representative PPG-based BGL methods on published datasets under three increasingly strict data-split protocols: random window-level, participant-aware, and leave-some-participants-out (LSPO). Models appeared competitive under random splitting but collapsed under participant-aware and LSPO evaluation, with nearly all yielding near-zero or negative R2^2 values comparable to a mean-prediction baseline. Critically, across every model and split, over 90% of predictions fell within clinically acceptable zones (Clarke Error Grid A+B), including the baseline. This reveals a fundamental disconnect: clinical zone metrics systematically conceal model failure in this domain. Our findings demonstrate that random train-test splits substantially overestimate the generalization of PPG-based BGL models due to sample-level data leakage, and that robust ML evaluation must precede clinical validation to meaningfully assess real-world utility.
Supraja Ramesh, Markus Neufeld, Michael Küttner +2
Jul 23, 2026cs.LG

GlucoTune: A Unified Framework for Blood Glucose Preprocessing, Forecasting, and Benchmarking in Diabetes

Preprocessing blood glucose time-series data is a critical yet often overlooked step in developing data-driven methods for diabetes management, particularly for type 1 diabetes. The lack of standardized preprocessing workflows and evaluation protocols hinders reproducibility and complicates fair comparison across studies. These challenges are further exacerbated by data-sharing restrictions, as privacy and licensing constraints often prevent the redistribution of preprocessed medical datasets. To address these limitations, we present GlucoTune, a comprehensive and extensible framework for reproducible experimentation with blood glucose time-series data. The framework standardizes the entire experimental workflow, from preprocessing to model evaluation, enabling reproducible experiments directly from the original datasets. Reproducible preprocessing is achieved through configurable pipelines defined in portable YAML configuration files, ensuring consistent data handling without distributing sensitive preprocessed data. Beyond preprocessing, GlucoTune provides a unified interface for implementing, training, and evaluating blood glucose prediction models. The framework integrates public datasets through standardized wrappers and provides a curated collection of state-of-the-art blood glucose prediction and general time-series forecasting methods, while remaining readily extensible to additional datasets, preprocessing strategies, and forecasting models. To promote transparent and consistent evaluation, GlucoTune includes a benchmarking leaderboard that reports results across datasets, preprocessing configurations, and forecasting methods, enabling systematic comparison of experimental settings. We demonstrate the effectiveness of GlucoTune through comprehensive experiments and assess its usability in a user study.
Davide Marelli, Giorgia Rigamonti, Mirko Paolo Barbato +1
Jul 21, 2026cs.LG

Subject-Conditioned Glucose Forecasting in Type-1 Diabetes

Accurate forecasting of blood glucose concentration is key in the management of Type 1 Diabetes, facilitating early detection of adverse glycemic events and supporting timely therapeutic interventions. Despite recent advances in glucose prediction, most existing approaches rely on population-level representations or implicit personalization strategies that fail to deliver effective subject-specific forecasts. In this work, we propose Subject-Conditioned Glucose Prediction (SCGP), a novel multimodal deep learning architecture conceived for personalized blood glucose prediction. SCGP conditions glucose predictions based on observed glucose data and a compact subject-specific representation learned from contextual information. By explicitly separating subject characterization from glucose dynamics modeling and avoiding early fusion of heterogeneous inputs, the proposed framework effectively captures inter-subject variability while preserving robust and reliable temporal modeling. Experiments on two state-of-the-art benchmark datasets demonstrate that SCGP consistently improves forecasting performance, enabling reliable detection of adverse glycemic events across multiple prediction horizons, highlighting the benefits of explicit subject conditioning for personalized diabetes management.
Giorgia Rigamonti, Mirko Paolo Barbato, Davide Marelli +1
Jun 28, 2026cs.LG

Interventional Flow Matching: Prospective Dose-Response Forecasting with Velocity-Field Jacobian Regularization

Predicting a patient's physiological trajectory under a planned treatment sequence is a prospective interventional problem, not standard time-series extrapolation. We study this problem in glucose management, where insulin and carbohydrate records are policy-dependent: future drivers are coupled to patient state, behavior, and clinical decision rules, so observational forecasting accuracy alone does not guarantee correct responses to planned interventions. We introduce Interventional Flow Matching (IFM), a continuous-time generative framework for physiologically constrained prospective forecasting. IFM conditions a flow-matching velocity field on patient history and planned future drivers in a bounded latent glucose space. Rather than embedding strict mechanistic glucose--insulin ODE equations or enforcing causality through rollout-based simulations, IFM uses a solver-free regularization: it penalizes the Jacobian of the instantaneous velocity field with respect to smoothed treatment drivers. This imposes signed, dose-bounded local sensitivities directly on the learned dynamics: insulin lowers glucose, carbohydrates raise it, and both responses remain within plausible ranges. On a simulated UVA/Padova type 1 diabetes cohort, IFM achieves the strongest balance between observed-driver RMSE and interventional response metrics. Across experiments, it consistently produces physiologically correct responses to both insulin and carbohydrate drivers while maintaining high directional, and ranking consistency.
Amirreza Dolatpour Fathkouhi, Justin Lee, Heman Shakeri
Jun 17, 2026cs.LG

MetaboNet-Bench: A Multi-modal Benchmark for Glucose Forecasting in Type 1 Diabetes

Glucose forecasting algorithms are an important aspect of glycemic control management in type 1 diabetes. So far, the research community has developed numerous algorithms and models for forecasting. However, it is well-recognized that the lack of standardized model performance evaluation benchmarks makes fair comparison difficult and hinders further innovation, and thus benchmark standardization is in urgent need. Furthermore, many published glucose forecasting algorithms are limited to CGM data alone, ignoring other multimodal signals such as insulin dosing and carbohydrate intake. Here, we introduce MetaboNet-Bench, a benchmark for multimodal glucose forecasting for patients with type 1 diabetes that provides an extensible open-source evaluation framework for comparison of glucose forecasting algorithms that leverage glucose, insulin, and carbohydrate data. We then demonstrate its utility by benchmarking several recently published glucose forecasting models and a custom multimodal time-series model, representing different model architectures. The results show that the benefit of adding data modalities is conditioned on the complexity of the model and that incorporating more clinical metrics helps identify meaningful gaps to fill for future research.
Nathaniel Jeffries, Miriam Wolff, Sam Royston +5
Jun 14, 2026cs.LG

An Exploratory Study of Blood Glucose Estimation from Photoplethysmography Signals using Machine Learning

Diabetes and extreme blood sugar levels are some of the major health problems faced by humans today across the world. While Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) has emerged as an effective technology for management of diabetes as well as for monitoring blood sugar levels, this technology has traditionally been invasive (that is, requiring the piercing of the skin) and carries the risk of irritation, induration, etc. This highlights the need for accurate and non-invasive CGM methods that can be deployed at scale. With the emergence of various sensing technologies and their integration in wearables like the smart-watch, we now have the capability to continuously monitor body signals like the Photoplethysmogram (PPG) in a non-invasive manner. Having the ability to continuously monitor blood glucose through CGMs and continuously monitor PPG signals through a smart-watch offers an opportunity to get dense data on these two, opening the possibility of building machine learning and deep learning based models to estimate blood glucose level from PPG signals. In this work, we first present a paired dataset comprising continuous PPG signals from a smartwatch along with glucose values recorded using a CGM device. We also present the results of some preliminary experimental explorations performed on our dataset. These preliminary results suggest that some predictive signals may exist, though more exploration is needed with more data from a larger number of individuals. The dataset can be accessed at https://zenodo.org/records/20577959
Ruhani Bhatia, Vijval Ekbote
Jun 8, 2026cs.IR

MetaPlate: Counterfactual-Guided RAG-LLM Tool for Personalized Food Recommendation and Hyperglycemia Prevention

Postprandial hyperglycemia is a key risk factor for metabolic disorders; however, existing dietary guidance is often static, impractical, and insufficiently personalized, providing recommendations that are difficult to follow or not impactful. While recent advances leverage continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) and machine learning to predict glycemic responses, these approaches are largely predictive and lack actionable guidance. Moreover, recommendation systems are often misaligned with user goals and require extensive input. We present MetaPlate, a counterfactual explanation (CF) guided, context-aware decision-support framework that generates personalized meal recommendations to mitigate postprandial glucose excursions in healthy adults. MetaPlate integrates multimodal data, including CGM readings, wearable-derived physiological signals, and user-provided meal inputs from 2525 individuals to model pre-meal context. A machine learning model predicts glucose response, while a CF optimization module adjusts meal composition modifying macronutrient amounts to maintain glucose levels within a target range (140\leq 140 mg/dL). An LLM-based retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) layer enhances interpretability by producing human-readable recommendations using constrained search of the USDA food database. We evaluate MetaPlate via a structured expert-in-the-loop assessment with registered dietitians (RDs), comparing performance before and after prompt refinement. Results show improvements in meal realism, portion suitability, and recommendation likelihood, with expert feedback indicating a shift from clinically implausible outputs to actionable, contextually appropriate recommendations. Our findings emphasize the importance of domain knowledge and structured constraints in LLM-driven systems and highlight the potential of MetaPlate as a real-time personalized dietary decision-support tool.
Asiful Arefeen, Carol Johnston, Hassan Ghasemzadeh
Jun 5, 2026cs.LG

GlucoFM-Bench: Benchmarking Time-Series Foundation Models for Blood Glucose Forecasting

Blood glucose forecasting models are foundational for modern diabetes management systems, as reliable short-term predictions can enable proactive interventions, support automated insulin delivery, and reduce the risk of hypo- and hyperglycemic events. From a modeling perspective, glucose forecasting poses unique challenges due to heterogeneous physiological dynamics across diabetes populations. Traditional machine learning and deep learning models have been extensively evaluated for glucose prediction, yet recent time-series foundation models (TSFMs) remain much less studied in this setting. To bridge this gap, we present GlucoFM-Bench, a comprehensive benchmark evaluating state-of-the-art TSFMs alongside supervised deep learning models for blood glucose forecasting. We assess eight representative architectures, including pre-trained TSFMs, time-series large language models, and task-specific deep learning models, across 15 publicly available diabetes-relevant datasets comprising 1,117 individuals with type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes, prediabetes, and no diabetes. Models are evaluated under zero-shot, few-shot, and full-shot protocols, with systematic variation in context length and prediction horizon. Across datasets, pre-trained TSFMs, especially Chronos-2 and TimesFM, show strong zero-shot and few-shot transfer, with the best zero-shot model performing within 5% of the best full-shot supervised model. Yet, when task-specific data are abundant, a lightweight LSTM remains strongest, outperforming TSFMs by 4--21% under full-shot training. Stratified analyses reveal persistent challenges in T1D cohorts and hypo-/hyperglycemic ranges, highlighting the need for evaluation beyond aggregate error metrics. Together, GlucoFM-Bench provides a standardized and reproducible foundation for evaluating, comparing, and improving foundation models for blood glucose forecasting.
Baiying Lu, Zhaohui Liang, Ryan Pontius +2
Jun 3, 2026cs.LG

Evidence-Guided Neural Architecture Selection under Uncertainty for Subject-Specific Blood Glucose Forecasting

Reliable neural architecture selection is an open challenge in time-series forecasting under limited, noisy, and heterogeneous data, where standard heuristic architecture design and validation approaches fail to ensure accurate and reliable prediction and generalization. We propose EVIDENT (EVidence-based IDEntification of Neural archiTectures), a framework for architecture selection that integrates Bayesian training, evidence-based ranking, and task-specific validation under uncertainty. The framework explores the candidate architecture pool and identifies the lowest-capacity model that satisfies a prescribed validation criterion. We demonstrate this method using temporal convolutional networks (TCNs) for individualized blood glucose forecasting in type 1 diabetes patients. The results show that EVIDENT systematically rejects both under- and over-parameterized TCN architectures on population-level diabetes data, while identifying models that generalize reliably to unseen patients. When multiple architectures are competitive, the framework further supports plausibility-weighted ensemble predictions that enhance predictive performance. Compared with a random-search baseline, EVIDENT identified smaller architectures with more consistent forecasting performance on unseen patients. These findings establish EVIDENT as a strategy to neural architecture discovery, enabling reliable model selection for high-consequence forecasting in data-limited and heterogeneous settings.
Md Azharul Islam, Dwyer Deighan, Tarunraj Singha +1
May 29, 2026cs.LG

GlucoFM: A Dual-Stream Foundation Model for Continuous Glucose Monitoring

Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) provides a dense view of daily metabolic physiology, yet existing generic time-series and CGM-specific foundation models often encode glucose traces as entangled single-stream sequences, leaving the distinct temporal structure of glycemic dynamics only implicitly modeled. We present GlucoFM, a lightweight CGM foundation model that aligns irregular recordings to a 24-hour chronological grid, preserves observation masks, and decomposes glucose dynamics into slow physiological state and transient event streams, capturing low-frequency glycemic baselines and short-term deviations that may reflect acute physiological responses or sensor artifacts. GlucoFM is pretrained on 109,066 hours of unlabeled CGM recordings from 477 subjects with two complementary objectives: masked contextual latent prediction over fused daily representations and temporal dynamics prediction over state and event streams. Across four diverse cohorts and seven clinical prediction tasks, GlucoFM achieves the strongest subject-disjoint linear-probing performance among evaluated baselines, improving average PR-AUC by 4.1 points over the best CGM-specific foundation model. Its gains are most pronounced on core metabolic outcomes, leading PR-AUC on all diabetes-risk and ββ-cell dysfunction tasks and on 3 of 4 insulin-resistance tasks. GlucoFM also achieves the best overall cross-dataset transfer performance and strong few-shot adaptation among evaluated methods, and consistent gains when aggregating multiple days for subject-level prediction, highlighting physiology-aware decomposition as an effective inductive bias for transferable CGM representation learning.
Zechen Li, Keerthana Natarajan, Weizhi Zhang +11
May 20, 2026cs.LG

PACD-Net: Pseudo-Augmented Contrastive Distillation for Glycemic Control Estimation from SMBG

Effective diabetes management requires continuous monitoring of glycemic levels. Clinically, glycemic control is assessed using metrics such as Time in Range (TIR), Time Below Range (TBR), and Time Above Range (TAR), typically derived from continuous glucose monitoring (CGM). However, many patients rely on self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) due to the high cost and limited accessibility of CGM. Unlike CGM, SMBG provides sparse and irregular measurements, making accurate estimation of these metrics challenging. Conventional supervised learning approaches struggle under such sparsity, leading to poor generalization and unstable performance. To address this, we propose PACD-Net, a self-supervised contrastive knowledge distillation framework for estimating glycemic control from SMBG. Pseudo-SMBG samples with richer temporal coverage are used as teacher signals to guide learning from sparse observations. In addition, multi-view contrastive learning enforces representation consistency across diverse sampling patterns. The model adopts a hybrid Swin Transformer-CNN backbone to capture temporal dependencies in sparse SMBG sequences. Experimental results demonstrate that PACD-Net consistently outperforms existing methods in estimating TAR, TIR, and TBR from real-world SMBG data, achieving improved accuracy as well as enhanced stability and generalization under extremely sparse observation settings. The proposed framework provides a practical tool for clinical SMBG interpretation and offers a generalizable approach for learning from sparse and irregularly sampled sensor data in broader applications.
Canyu Lei, David Repaske, Jianxin Xie
May 16, 2026cs.LG

PhysioSeq2Seq: A Hybrid Physiological Digital Twin and Sequence-to-Sequence LSTM for Long-Horizon Glucose Forecasting in Type 1 Diabetes

Accurate long-horizon glucose forecasting is critical for automated insulin delivery systems, which help people with type 1 diabetes (T1D) manage their glucose and avoid dangerous hypoglycemia. However, standard recursive long short-term memory (LSTM) networks suffer from systematic negative bias at longer horizons due to error compounding, while purely mechanistic ordinary differential equation (ODE) models fail to generalize across individuals when parameterized at the population level. We propose PhysioSeq2Seq, a hybrid architecture that combines patient-specific physiological modeling with a sequence-to-sequence (Seq2Seq) LSTM. For each glucose segment, twin matching searches a population of 300 parameterized digital twins to identify the best-fitting physiological match from a 3-hour continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) history. The 10 internal ODE state variables of the matched twin are injected as exogenous covariates into both the encoder and decoder of the Seq2Seq LSTM. This simultaneous 48-step prediction strategy eliminates recursive error compounding, while the ODE features provide a physics-grounded constraint that bounds long-horizon drift within physiologically plausible ranges. PhysioSeq2Seq was trained on CGM and insulin data from 348 participants in the Type 1 Diabetes Exercise Initiative (T1DEXI) dataset and evaluated on 74 held-out participants. At the 240-minute horizon, PhysioSeq2Seq achieves a mean absolute error of 39.28 mg/dL and a mean error of -10.62 mg/dL, reducing bias by 13.89 mg/dL over the recursive LSTM and reducing mean absolute error by 28.62 mg/dL over the ODE-based digital twin. These results show that eliminating architectural feedback and injecting patient-matched physiological states is an effective and clinically meaningful strategy for long-horizon glucose forecasting in T1D.
Phat Tran, Neville Mehta, Clara Mosquera-Lopez +3
May 11, 2026cs.LG

A Proof-of-Concept Simulation-Driven Digital Twin Framework for Decision-Aware Diabetes Modeling

This paper presents a proof-of-concept digital twin framework for simulation-driven diabetes modeling using benchmark clinical data, synthetic temporal augmentation, and illustrative continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) analysis. Unlike traditional predictive models, the framework focuses on generating interpretable simulated trajectories rather than clinically validated outcomes. Evaluation is conducted using a public dataset combined with controlled synthetic scenarios to illustrate temporal behavior and intervention effects. Results illustrate the feasibility of integrating prediction with counterfactual simulation for decision-aware analysis. This work does not claim clinical readiness but provides a foundation for future research on simulation-driven digital twin systems in healthcare.
Zarrin Monirzadeh
May 1, 2026cs.LG

From Prediction to Practice: A Task-Aware Evaluation Framework for Blood Glucose Forecasting

Clinical time-series forecasting is increasingly studied for decision support, yet standard aggregate metrics can obscure whether a model is actually useful for the task it is meant to serve. In safety-critical settings, low average error can coexist with dangerous failures in exactly the high-risk regimes that matter most. We present a task-aware evaluation framework for blood glucose forecasting built around two downstream uses: hypoglycemia early warning and insulin dosing decision support. For early warning, we evaluate on real data from three clinical cohorts using event-level recall and false alarms per patient-day, metrics that reflect operational alarm burden rather than aggregate accuracy. We show that models appearing acceptable overall, with recall above 0.9 on the full test set, can fail badly in the post-bolus slice, where insulin-on-board is elevated and missed warnings carry the greatest clinical consequences. Standard forecasting evaluation, however, does not test whether a model can reason about the effects of actions, a requirement for supporting insulin dosing decisions. We therefore add a second, interventional arm using the FDA-accepted UVA/Padova simulator, where we evaluate whether forecasters can predict glucose responses to altered insulin plans in paired factual/counterfactual scenarios. We show that models that look strong on real-data forecasting often fail to predict the direction, magnitude, or ranking of intervention effects, and choose poor insulin doses when evaluated under a clinically motivated cost. Taken together, the two arms reveal a consistent gap between forecasting accuracy and task-relevant usefulness. We release the benchmark, the standardized preprocessing pipeline for public cohorts, and the simulator-based interventional dataset as a reproducible toolkit.
Alireza Namazi, Heman Shakeri
May 1, 2026cs.LG

CGM-JEPA: Learning Consistent Continuous Glucose Monitor Representations via Predictive Self-Supervised Pretraining

Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) can detect early metabolic subphenotypes (insulin resistance, IR; ββ-cell dysfunction), but population-scale deployment faces two coupled problems. First, the same physiological state appears through multiple views (CGM time series, venous OGTT, Glucodensity summaries), so single-view representations fail to transfer when deployment shifts the modality or setting. Second, baselines perform inconsistently across these shifts. Both problems point to one remedy: representations that abstract away from any single view to capture higher-level temporal and distributional structure. We propose CGM-JEPA, a self-supervised pretraining framework which predicts masked latent representations rather than raw values, yielding abstraction that transfers across modalities. X-CGM-JEPA adds a masked Glucodensity cross-view objective for complementary distributional information. We pretrain on \sim389k unlabeled CGM readings from 228 subjects and evaluate on two clinical cohorts (N=27N=27 and N=17N=17 public-release subsets) across three regimes (cohort generalization, venous-to-CGM transfer, home CGM) under 20-iteration ×\times 2-fold cross-validation. X-CGM-JEPA ranks first or second on AUROC for both endpoints across all three regimes while no baseline does, exceeding the strongest baseline by up to +6.5+6.5 pp in cohort generalization and +3.6+3.6 pp in venous-to-CGM transfer (paired Wilcoxon, p<0.001p<0.001). Under modality shift, it matches mean AUROC while redistributing toward weaker subgroups (ethnicity AUROC gap shrinks 25-54%); on sparse in-domain venous data, the distributional view lifts label-aware clustering (ARI +39%+39\%, NMI +40%+40\%). Code and weights: https://github.com/cruiseresearchgroup/CGM-JEPA
Hada Melino Muhammad, Zechen Li, Flora Salim +1
Apr 27, 2026cs.AI

An empirical evaluation of the risks of AI model updates using clinical data: stability, arbitrariness, and fairness

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) models used in clinical settings are increasingly deployed to support clinical decision-making. However, when training data become stale due to changes in demographics, environment, or patient behaviors, model performance can degrade substantially. While updating models with new training data is necessary, such updates may also introduce new risks. We evaluated the proposed monitoring framework on four publicly available U.S.-based Type 1 Diabetes datasets containing high-resolution continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) data, comprising approximately 11,300 weekly observations from 496 participants under 20 years of age. All datasets included structured sociodemographic information. Using the prediction of severe hyperglycemia events in children with type 1 diabetes as a case study, we examine how different model update strategies can adversely affect model stability (e.g., by causing predictions to "flip" for a large number of cases after an update), increase arbitrariness in predictions, or worsen accuracy equity and the balance of error rates across subpopulations. We propose multiple dimensions for continuous monitoring to detect these issues and argue that such monitoring is essential for the development of trustworthy clinical decision support systems.
Ioannis Bilionis, Ricardo C. Berrios, Luis Fernandez-Luque +1
Apr 18, 2026cs.AI

If Only My CGM Could Speak: A Privacy-Preserving Agent for Question Answering over Continuous Glucose Data

Continuous glucose monitors (CGMs) used in diabetes care collect rich personal health data that could improve day-to-day self-management. However, current patient platforms only offer static summaries which do not support inquisitive user queries. Large language models (LLMs) could enable free-form inquiries about continuous glucose data, but deploying them over sensitive health records raises privacy and accuracy concerns. In this paper, we present CGM-Agent, a privacy-preserving framework for question answering over personal glucose data. In our design, the LLM serves purely as a reasoning engine that selects analytical functions. All computation occurs locally, and personal health data never leaves the user's device. For evaluation, we construct a benchmark of 4,180 questions combining parameterized question templates with real user queries and ground truth derived from deterministic program execution. Evaluating 6 leading LLMs, we find that top models achieve 94% value accuracy on synthetic queries and 88% on ambiguous real-world queries. Errors stem primarily from intent and temporal ambiguity rather than computational failures. Additionally, lightweight models achieve competitive performance in our agent design, suggesting opportunities for low-cost deployment. We release our code and benchmark to support future work on trustworthy health agents.
Yanjun Cui, Ali Emami, Temiloluwa Prioleau +1
Apr 16, 2026cs.CL

Blinded Multi-Rater Comparative Evaluation of a Large Language Model and Clinician-Authored Responses in CGM-Informed Diabetes Counseling

Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) is central to diabetes care, but explaining CGM patterns clearly and empathetically remains time-intensive. Evidence for retrieval-grounded large language model (LLM) systems in CGM-informed counseling remains limited. To evaluate whether a retrieval-grounded LLM-based conversational agent (CA) could support patient understanding of CGM data and preparation for routine diabetes consultations. We developed a retrieval-grounded LLM-based CA for CGM interpretation and diabetes counseling support. The system generated plain-language responses while avoiding individualized therapeutic advice. Twelve CGM-informed cases were constructed from publicly available datasets. Between Oct 2025 and Feb 2026, 6 senior UK diabetes clinicians each reviewed 2 assigned cases and answered 24 questions. In a blinded multi-rater evaluation, each CA-generated and clinician-authored response was independently rated by 3 clinicians on 6 quality dimensions. Safety flags and perceived source labels were also recorded. Primary analyses used linear mixed-effects models. A total of 288 unique responses (144 CA and 144 clinician) generated 864 ratings. The CA received higher quality scores than clinician responses (mean 4.37 vs 3.58), with an estimated mean difference of 0.782 points (95% CI 0.692-0.872; P<.001). The largest differences were for empathy (1.062, 95% CI 0.948-1.177) and actionability (0.992, 95% CI 0.877-1.106). Safety flag distributions were similar, with major concerns rare in both groups (3/432, 0.7% each). Retrieval-grounded LLM systems may have value as adjunct tools for CGM review, patient education, and preconsultation preparation. However, these findings do not support autonomous therapeutic decision-making or unsupervised real-world use.
Zhijun Guo, Alvina Lai, Emmanouil Korakas +6
Jul 18, 2025cs.AI

Glucose-ML: A collection of longitudinal diabetes datasets for development of robust AI solutions

Artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms are a critical part of state-of-the-art digital health technology for diabetes management. Yet, access to large high-quality datasets is creating barriers that impede development of robust AI solutions. To accelerate development of transparent, reproducible, and robust AI solutions, we present Glucose-ML, a collection of 10 publicly available diabetes datasets, released within the last 7 years (i.e., 2018 - 2025). The Glucose-ML collection comprises over 300,000 days of continuous glucose monitor (CGM) data with a total of 38 million glucose samples collected from 2500+ people across 4 countries. Participants include persons living with type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes, prediabetes, and no diabetes. To support researchers and innovators with using this rich collection of diabetes datasets, we present a comparative analysis to guide algorithm developers with data selection. Additionally, we conduct a case study for the task of blood glucose prediction - one of the most common AI tasks within the field. Through this case study, we provide a benchmark for short-term blood glucose prediction across all 10 publicly available diabetes datasets within the Glucose-ML collection. We show that the same algorithm can have significantly different prediction results when developed/evaluated with different datasets. Findings from this study are then used to inform recommendations for developing robust AI solutions within the diabetes or broader health domain. We provide direct links to each longitudinal diabetes dataset and openly provide our code.
Temiloluwa Prioleau, Baiying Lu, Yanjun Cui