Counterfactuals

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Counterfactual Reasoning

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Counterfactual Explanation

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Counterfactual Learning

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Counterfactual Rollouts

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PragReST: Self-Reinforcing Counterfactual Reasoning for Pragmatic Language Understanding
Jun 17, 2026Jihyung Park, Minchao Huang, Leqi Liu +1Large Language Model Reasoning Counterfactual Reasoning
P $^2$ CE: Model-Agnostic Plausible Pareto-Optimal Counterfactual Explanations
Jun 16, 2026Arthur Hendricks Mendes de Oliveira, Giovani Valdrighi, Marcos Medeiros RaimundoCounterfactual Explanation Outliers
ConTex: Reformulating Counterfactual Generation For Time Series Forecasting
Jun 16, 2026Jan Voets, Hasan Tercan, Tobias Meisen +1Counterfactual Reasoning Time Series
Counterfactual Optimization of Baseball Pitch Sequences and Estimation of Its Impact on Season-Level Statistics
Jun 15, 2026Ryota Takamido, Hiroki NakamotoCounterfactual Rollouts Pivotal Statistics
We Need Explanation Cards to Connect Explanation Algorithms to the Real World
Jun 15, 2026Eric Günther, Balázs Szabados, Kristof Meding +3Explainability Counterfactual Explanation
RecourseBench: A Modular Framework for Reproducible Algorithmic Recourse Evaluation
Jun 15, 2026Zahra Khotanlou, Hashir Ahmed, Chenghao Tan +2Reproducibility Counterfactual Explanation
Faithful Action-unit Causal Reasoning for Counterfactually Faithful Emotion Explanations
Jun 14, 2026Van Thong Huynh, Hong Hai Nguyen, Thuy Pham +2Counterfactual Reasoning Causal Reasoning
CoCoGEC: Counterfactual Generation for Robust Grammatical Error Correction
Jun 13, 2026Qianyu Wang, Xiaoman Wang, Yuanyuan Liang +2Grammatical Error Correction Counterfactual Learning
A Definition of Good Explanations and the Challenges Explaining LLM Outputs
Jun 12, 2026Louis Mahon, Elliot Ford, Callum HackettExplainability Counterfactual Explanation
Knowledge-Based Zero-Replay Debugging of Multi-Agent LLM Traces
Jun 11, 2026Dong Ho Kang, Hyeonjeong Cha, Daein WeonMulti-Agent Large Language Model Counterfactual Reasoning
Capability Minimization as a Safety Primitive: Risk-Aware Causal Gating for Least-Privilege LLM Agents
Jun 11, 2026Laxmipriya Ganesh Iyer, Rahul Suresh BabuArtificial Intelligence Safety Agent Decisions
NetCause: Counterfactual Learning for Root Cause Analysis in Large-Scale Networks
Jun 11, 2026Fabien Chraim, Jian Zhang, Dominik Janzing +3Root Cause Analysis Causal Graph
Flow Matching with In-Context Priors for Out-of-Distribution Brain Dynamics
Jun 10, 2026Sam Gijsen, Michał Łukomski, Marc-André Schulz +1Generative Models Human Brain Networks
WorldReasoner: Evaluating Whether Language Model Agents Forecast Events with Valid Reasoning
Jun 10, 2026Yizhou Chi, Eric Chamoun, Zifeng Ding +1Load Forecasting Counterfactual Reasoning
Monte Carlo Pass Search: Using Trajectory Generation for 3D Counterfactual Pass Evaluation in Football
Jun 9, 2026Andrew Kang, Priya NarasimhanCounterfactual Reasoning World Models
WorldKernel: A World Model is the Coupling Kernel of Admissible Possible Worlds
Jun 9, 2026Fabio RovaiStructural Causal Model Counterfactual Reasoning
Self-Supervised Relevance Modelling in Autonomous Driving via Counterfactual Analysis
Jun 9, 2026Luca Lusvarghi, Javier Gozalvez, Pablo Urbano HidalgoAutonomous Driving Relevance
Decoupling Thought from Speech: Knowledge-Grounded Counterfactual Reasoning for Resilient Multi-Agent Argumentation
Jun 9, 2026Jakub Masłowski, Jarosław A. ChudziakMulti-Agent Debate Counterfactual Reasoning
Computational Identifiability
Jun 8, 2026Lucius E. J. Bynum, Rajesh Ranganath, Kyunghyun ChoIdentifiability Counterfactual Reasoning
Counterfactual Reasoning for Fine-Grained Evidence Disentanglement in VideoQA
Jun 8, 2026Zhou Du, Hamid Krim, Xiao Wu +3Video Question Answering Counterfactual Reasoning
DynaCF: Mitigating Shortcut Learning in Reward Models via Dynamic Counterfactual Sensitivity
Jun 8, 2026Fengyuan Liu, Yongliang Miao, Zirui He +3Process Reward Modeling Counterfactual Rollouts
How Many Counterfactuals Does It Take? Probing VLM Hallucinations Through Circuits and Causal Effects
Jun 7, 2026Abhivansh Gupta, Simardeep Singh, Advika Sinha +2Hallucinations Counterfactual Reasoning
Agentic Search for Counterfactual Recourse under Fixed LLM Budgets
Jun 7, 2026Yasuo TabeiCounterfactual Reasoning Agentic Search
DriveReward: A Comprehensive Dataset and Generative Vision-Language Reward Model for Autonomous Driving
Jun 7, 2026Qimao Chen, Fang Li, Yuechen Luo +11Naturalistic Driving Data Autonomous Driving
Querying Counterfactuals on Tissue Graphs with Supervised Disentanglement
Jun 7, 2026Abdul Moeed, Stefan Schrod, Martin Rohbeck +4Single-Cell Perturbation Prediction Counterfactual Reasoning
Causal Agent Replay: Counterfactual Attribution for LLM-Agent Failures
Jun 6, 2026Jaineet ShahLarge Language Model Agents Counterfactual Reasoning
Post-Rejection Follow-up Sampling: A Methodology for Counterfactual Outcome Measurement in Algorithmic DEX Trading
Jun 6, 2026Arati Uday KamatDecentralized Finance Rejection
Automatic, Debiased, and Invariant Counterfactual Generation under General Interventions
Jun 5, 2026Raphael C Kim, Jingsen Zhu, Ramin Zabih +1Counterfactual Reasoning Subspace Intervention Framework
VeriDrive: Verifiable Counterfactual Supervision for Cost-Efficient Vision-Language Planning
Jun 5, 2026Zikai Zhang, Hubert P. H. Shum, Toby P. BreckonLarge Vision Language Models Counterfactual Learning
GRASP: Geometry-aware Residual Alignment for Scalable Pretraining Data Attribution
Jun 5, 2026Yue Min, Ruining Chen, Yujun LiTraining Data Attribution Model Pretraining
CRAFT: A Unified Counterfactual Reasoning Framework for Tabular Question Answering and Fact Verification
Jun 5, 2026Chenshuo Pan, Yu Zhao, Jie Zhang +7Table Reasoning Datasets Counterfactual Reasoning
Revising Context, Shifting Simulated Stance: Auditing LLM-Based Stance Simulation in Online Discussions
Jun 4, 2026Xinnong Zhang, Wanting Shan, Hanjia Lyu +2Opinion Dynamics Reddit
Maximising the Set-Piece Return: Optimising Football Corner Tactics with Graph Reinforcement Learning
Jun 4, 2026Sean Groom, Michael Groom, Francisco Belo +4Deep Reinforcement Learning Counterfactual Reasoning
Quantifying the Privacy of Counterfactuals by Leveraging Membership Inference Attacks Against Synthetic Data
Jun 4, 2026Maryam Babaei, Yingke Wang, Hadrien Lautraite +3Membership Inference Attacks Counterfactual Reasoning
LLM Explainability with Counterfactual Chains and Causal Graphs
Jun 4, 2026Nirit Nussbaum-Hoffer, Nitay Calderon, Liat Ein-Dor +1Causal Graph Explainability
Forgive or forget: Understanding the context of hate in audio retrieval systems
Jun 4, 2026Arghya Pal, Sailaja Rajanala, Raphael C. -W. Phan +1Harmful Content Audio Representation
Causal Longitudinal Prior-Fitted Networks for Counterfactual Outcome Prediction
Jun 4, 2026Amirhossein Zare, Amirhessam Zare, Herlock Rahimi +2Causal Inferences Counterfactual Reasoning
Benchmarking Counterfactual Prediction in Epidemic Time Series with Time-Varying Interventions
Jun 4, 2026Wenhao Mu, Facundo Yan, Anik Mumssen +2Epidemic Forecasting Causal Inferences
Policy-Conditioned Counterfactual Credit for Verifiable Reinforcement Learning of Long-Horizon Language Agents
Jun 3, 2026Renwei MengReinforcement Learning With Verifiable Reward Verifiable Rewards
A Geometric View of Counterfactual Behavior: Interaction of Boundary Proximity and Local Support
Jun 2, 2026Ioanna Gemou, Matteo Gamba, Randall Balestriero +1Counterfactual Reasoning Boundaries
Adaptive Causal Alignment for High-Confidence Adversarial Training
Jun 2, 2026Zhiming Luo, Kejia Zhang, Yingxin Lai +3Adversarial Transferability Counterfactual Learning
Disentangling Visual and Factual Correctness in LVLMs' Visualization Literacy
Jun 2, 2026Soohyun Lee, Jaeyoung Kim, Seokhyeon Park +5Large Vision Language Models Visual Reasoning
Outsmarting the Chameleon: Counterfactual Decoupling for Tactical OOD Shifts in Live Streaming Risk Assessment
Jun 1, 2026Yiran Qiao, Jing Chen, Jiaqi Xu +3Streaming Video Distribution Shifts
RoboTrustBench: Benchmarking the Trustworthiness of Video World Models for Robotic Manipulation
Jun 1, 2026Huiqiong Li, Jiayu Wang, Zhiting Mei +3Video World Models Counterfactual Reasoning
Scalable Counterfactual Risk Estimation for Rare Events in Longitudinal Data
Jun 1, 2026Xiaohui Yin, Avijit Mitra, Ying Zhou +2Survival Analysis Causal Inferences
Brain-Atlas-Guided Generative Counterfactual Attention for Explainable Cognitive Decline Diagnosis Using Multimodal Connectomes
May 31, 2026Xiongri Shen, Jiaqi Wang, Zhenxi Song +5Mild Cognitive Impairment Functional Networks
Not All Explanations Simulate Equally: Comparing Verbalized Feature Attributions and Self-Generated Rationales
May 31, 2026Pingjun Hong, Benjamin RothRationales Verbalization
Ask4VG: Risk-Aware Question Selection for Reducing Prior-Driven Answers in Medical VQA
May 31, 2026Xiaorong Zhu, Qiang Li, Zibo Xu +2Medical Visual Question Answering Hallucinations
COPF: An Online Framework for Deployment-Stable Counterfactual Fairness in Evolving Graphs
May 30, 2026Sheng'en Li, Dongmian ZouCounterfactual Reasoning Zero-Shot Link Prediction
TabChange: Precise Attribute Changes in Tabular Data
May 30, 2026Arjun Dahal, Yu Lei, Raghu N. Kacker +1Synthetic Tabular Data Counterfactual Learning
Counterfactual Explanations for Deep Two-Sample Testing
May 29, 2026Wei-Cheng Lai, Marco Simnacher, Christoph LippertTwo-Sample Testing Counterfactual Explanation
Density-Guided Robust Counterfactual Explanations on Tabular Data under Model Multiplicity
May 29, 2026Jun Tan, Qing Guo, Zicheng Xu +3Counterfactual Explanation Density Ratio Estimation
Universal Decision Learners
May 29, 2026Sridhar MahadevanDecisions Counterfactual Rollouts
Counterfactual Graph for Multi-Agent LLM Calibration
May 28, 2026Jiatan Huang, Mingchen Li, Ziming Li +3Multi-Agent Large Language Model Systems Consensus
Counterfactual Evaluation Reveals Hidden Capability Profiles in Clinical LLMs and Agents
May 28, 2026Matt TurkArtificial Intelligence Evaluation Counterfactual Reasoning
CFCamo: A Counterfactual Detect-or-Abstain Framework for Camouflaged Object Detection
May 28, 2026Suhang Li, Osamu Yoshie, Yuya IeiriCamouflaged Object Detection Object Detection
ExDBSCAN: Explaining DBSCAN with Counterfactual Reasoning -- Additional Material
May 28, 2026Pernille Matthews, Lena Krieger, Tommaso Amico +3Image Clustering Counterfactual Explanation
DMC-CF: Dynamic Multimodal CounterFactual QA benchmark for Causal Reasoning
May 28, 2026Junzhe Zhang, Huixuan Zhang, Guirong Wang +5Multimodal Reasoning Benchmarks Counterfactual Reasoning
The Illusion of Opting in AI-Mediated Consequential Decisions
May 27, 2026Eugene Yu JiArtificial Intelligence Governance Counterfactual Reasoning
Generative Spatiotemporal Intent Sequence Recommendation via Implicit Reasoning in Amap
May 27, 2026Sicong Wang, Ruiting Dong, Yue Liu +7Large Language Model Planning Large-Scale Recommendation Systems

Jun 17, 2026 · cs.CLJ/K move · Enter open · S save

PragReST: Self-Reinforcing Counterfactual Reasoning for Pragmatic Language Understanding

Jihyung Park, Minchao Huang, Leqi Liu, Elias Stengel-Eskin

The University of Texas at Austin

Natural language understanding often depends on meanings that are implied rather than explicitly stated, requiring pragmatic reasoning. Despite strong performance on math and logical reasoning, large language models (LLMs) still struggle with making pragmatic inferences, often choosing literal interpretations. To improve LLM pragmatic reasoning, we introduce PragReST, a self-supervised framework that constructs pragmatic QA data, generates counterfactual reasoning traces, and trains models to internalize them through supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning, without human-labeled training data or distillation from a stronger teacher. Across four pragmatic benchmarks (PragMega, Ludwig, MetoQA, and AltPrag), PragReST improves over backbone models, task-specific pragmatic tuning baselines, and non-counterfactual variants of the same pipeline. On accuracy-based benchmarks, PragReST improves over the instruct backbone by 5.37 and 5.50% (absolute) for Qwen3-8B and Qwen3-14B, respectively. Our error analysis and ablations underscore the importance of counterfactual reasoning: PragReST primarily reduces errors caused by failures to contrast observed utterances with plausible alternatives, and removing counterfactual reasoning substantially reduces performance. Moreover, our training preserves out-of-domain performance on general-knowledge and mathematical reasoning benchmarks.

Large Language Model Reasoning Counterfactual Reasoning Tuning

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