Distribution Shift Robustness

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26 papers in the last four weeks, up 225% on the four weeks before. 0.3% of all new papers.

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Latest papers 197

Sep 10, 2026stat.ML

CHOIR: heterogeneity-aware conformal prediction for crash injury severity across driver safety strata

Transportation agencies increasingly predict crash-injury severity with statistical and machine-learning models, but these models do not state how often their output contains the recorded injury level or for which groups of drivers it fails, a gap that matters most for motorcyclists and unrestrained drivers. This study develops and evaluates a certification layer that gives any fitted severity model a finite-sample, distribution-free coverage guarantee within prespecified safety strata. The layer, CHOIR (Conformal Heterogeneity-aware Ordinal Inference with Risk control), combines groupwise and weighted conformal prediction with conformal risk control to return contiguous KABCO intervals, and adds a declared sensitivity analysis for medically assessed injury and bounds on fatal omission. It is evaluated on 4.04 million Texas crashes from 2017-2023, one sampled driver per crash, with seven base models from the ordered logit to a tabular foundation model, and on held-out counties and later years. Under one pooled threshold every model reaches 0.90 coverage overall but covers motorcyclists or unrestrained drivers at 0.868 or lower, and class-balanced gradient boosting covers unrestrained drivers at only 0.374. Calibration within four safety strata places all 28 model-by-stratum estimates between 0.898 and 0.907, at the cost of sets spanning 3.6 to 4.6 of five categories for these groups, and the certified ordered logit is within 0.03 categories of the narrowest model. Injury-model coverage should therefore be certified within safety groups rather than on average, calibration rather than model complexity determines validity, and a statewide threshold should not be applied to small rural counties without local calibration data.

Amir Rafe, Subasish Das

Civil Engineering, Texas State University, 601 University Drive, San Marcos, 78666 TX, USA

Distribution Shift Robustness Group-Conditional Conformal Prediction Conformal Prediction

Sep 7, 2026cs.CV

Are Image Generators Zero-Shot Perceivers? A Rigorous Evaluation

Recent work, such as Vision Banana, shows that lightweight instruction tuning can enable an image generator to achieve state-of-the-art performance across multiple visual perception tasks. Motivated by this perspective, we ask how far image generators can go on public visual perception benchmarks in a zero-shot setting. We introduce ProbeGen, a benchmark for zero-shot generative perception that casts monocular depth estimation, referring/reasoning segmentation, and object counting as conditional generation tasks specified through text prompts, and compares 20 models in total---including proprietary and open-weight image generators, specialist perception models, and MLLMs---across 11 published benchmarks. We observe that pretrained image generators show measurable zero-shot perceptual competence, but with a clear trade-off: specialist models remain stronger for in-distribution accuracy and efficiency, while generative models are often more robust under distribution shift and better at compositional semantic reasoning. We hope this study helps establish zero-shot generative perception as a meaningful research direction and provides a useful foundation for future work at the intersection of visual generation and understanding.

Shangzhe Di, Zhaokai Wang, Weidi Xie

Shanghai Jiao Tong University, China

Distribution Shift Robustness Zero-Shot Learning Conditional Image Generation Monocular Depth Estimation Image Generation Evaluation

Sep 3, 2026cs.LG

RobustSeiz: An Open-Source Framework for Benchmarking the Robustness of EEG Seizure Detection Models

Despite strong performance on held-out electroencephalography (EEG) data, seizure detectors may fail under real-world acquisition variability, artifacts, and adversarial inputs. We introduce RobustSeiz, an open-source, model-agnostic framework that provides a standardized, reproducible protocol for stress-testing and comparing seizure detectors under controlled, clinically motivated distribution shifts before deployment. We standardize four public scalp-EEG corpora (CHB-MIT, TUSZ, Siena, and SeizeIT1) into BIDS-EEG trees and evaluate subject-independent detectors on held-out splits. Environment, noise, and adversarial transforms are swept over predefined hyperparameter grids. Each run reports sample- and event-level sensitivity, precision, F1, false positives per 24 h, Lead and Lag onset timing, and Monte Carlo dropout predictive agreement. RobustSeiz includes a Dockerized GPU pipeline, experiment registry, and full-evaluation and research-subset modes. We demonstrate the framework with a contemporary seizure detector on TUSZ across the complete implemented shift grid; an AWGN analysis illustrates how perturbation severity changes detection quality, onset timing, and predictive agreement. RobustSeiz provides a shared benchmarking standard for evaluating seizure-detector robustness under realistic clinical stressors, extending pre-deployment assessment beyond clean-data accuracy.

Mohammad Mohammadi, Alireza Zarei

Department of Mathematical Sciences, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

Distribution Shift Robustness EEG Seizure Detection Adversarial Robustness

Sep 3, 2026cs.LG

Mind the Gap: Robustness Risks in PII Detection Systems

Personally Identifiable Information (PII) detection is a foundational component of data protection infrastructure where missed entities constitute direct privacy and security risks. Although modern PII systems report strong performance on standard benchmarks, we show that these evaluations mask substantial robustness failures under realistic distribution shifts encountered in deployment. Rather than comparing state-of-the-art accuracy, we study how different PII detection paradigms fail under noisy, unstructured, and informal inputs. We construct a stress test benchmark spanning seven categories of natural distribution shift and evaluate representative systems from three widely deployed architectural families: encoder-based NER (SpaCy), rule-based hybrid detection (Presidio), and generative LLM extraction (Qwen2.5-3B). All three exhibit significant degradation on out-of-distribution inputs, but with distinct and complementary failure modes. Encoder models primarily fail on unseen surface forms and boundary detection, rule-based systems fail on non-standard formats, and LLMs exhibit entity-type confusion and generation instability. These results show that aggregate benchmark scores obscure deployment-critical weaknesses and that no single architecture is uniformly reliable across PII categories. Motivated by these findings, we propose a hybrid detection pipeline with a QA-driven feedback loop for iterative risk mitigation, and release our benchmark to support OOD-aware evaluation of PII systems.

Adeel Zafar, Slawomir Nowaczyk

Center for Applied Intelligent Systems Research, Halmstad University, Sweden

Distribution Shift Robustness PII Detection

Sep 1, 2026cs.LG

SAGE: Subpopulation-Aware Generative Enhancement for Mitigating Spurious Correlations

Spurious correlations pose a significant challenge to the robustness of modern machine learning. The inherent imbalance in dataset distributions often leads traditional Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) models to rely on majority spurious attributes for classification, resulting in poor performance on minority groups. This problem becomes particularly challenging when the spurious attributes are unavailable. Existing group-label-free methods often upsample minority groups or misclassified real training examples; repeating the same instances can reduce effective diversity and encourage overfitting. To mitigate these spurious correlations from a data-centric perspective in the absence of prior knowledge, we introduce Subpopulation-Aware Generative Enhancement (SAGE), a two-stage generative augmentation framework. Using cluster-derived sub-labels and class labels, we fine-tune a conditional generative model and text encoder, generating targeted synthetic data to fill underrepresented regions in the training set and construct a balanced validation set for last-layer reweighting. We experimentally show that SAGE achieves 89.5%, 85.7%, and 79.1% worst-group accuracy on Waterbirds, CelebA, and MetaShift, respectively, outperforming the best group-label-free baselines by up to 7.7 percentage points.

Yiming Luo, Rongqiang Zhao, Jie Liu

1Harbin Institute of Technology · 2State Key Laboratory of Smart Farm Technologies and Systems

Distribution Shift Robustness Synthetic Data Augmentation Spurious Correlation Robustness

Aug 30, 2026cs.CV

Continual Test-Time Adaptation via Entropy Sensitivity-Guidance in Strict Online Setting

Test-time adaptation (TTA) promises robustness under distribution shift by updating a pretrained model on unlabeled test data, but strict online TTA with batch size one and no access to source data is especially prone to drift or collapse. We introduce Sensitivity-Guided Erasing Adaptation (SEGA), a method for strict online continual TTA (CTTA) on corruption-style streams. SEGA uses a small number of structured erasures to probe how predictive entropy changes as information is removed, and uses the resulting per-sample sensitivity trajectories to coordinate recovery and sample selection rather than relying on raw entropy or batch statistics. This yields a practical feedback signal for long-horizon batch-size-one adaptation without periodic resets or model reservoirs. In experiments on ImageNet-C, CIFAR10/100-C, and corruption-generated aquaculture streams treated as controlled corruption-style proxies, SEGA yields consistent robustness and stability gains over strong CTTA baselines while reducing backward passes through sensitivity-based gating.

Chandler Timm C. Doloriel, Yunbei Zhang, Muhammad Salman Siddiqui +4

Faculty of Science and Technology (REALTEK), Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU) · Tulane University

Distribution Shift Robustness Test-Time Adaptation Continual Test-Time Adaptation Corruption Robustness Image Classification

Aug 30, 2026math.OC

A Unified Perspective on Conformal Prediction and Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization for Uncertainty Quantification

Uncertainty quantification from finite data is central to machine learning, optimization, and automation systems, where decisions must remain reliable under limited samples and test-time distribution shift. Conformal prediction (CP) and distributionally robust optimization (DRO) offer two complementary approaches: CP constructs data-dependent prediction sets with distribution-free finite-sample validity under exchangeability, while DRO optimizes worst-case performance over an ambiguity set around an empirical distribution. We develop a unified probabilistic perspective on CP and DRO by viewing both as ways to turn finite calibration data into a data-dependent quantile estimator that a test score falls below with high probability. From this perspective, CP and DRO correct the empirical quantile along two coordinates of the same family of estimators: CP inflates the quantile level, whereas DRO shifts the quantile value through an ambiguity radius. Both methods provide the same calibration-conditional guarantee for the true distribution, requiring the target coverage to hold with high probability over the calibration sample. Their constructions differ, however: CP uses a closed-form, distribution-free level correction, while DRO uses a value-space correction whose certified radius depends on properties of the unknown distribution and additionally guarantees coverage uniformly over the ambiguity set. This distinction emerges in the tails of the score distribution. Because CP relies on sparse upper-tail order statistics of the calibration samples, its level inflation barely moves the estimator when those samples are dense near the target quantile but overshoots when they are sparse, whereas a well-chosen DRO radius corrects in value space and may avoid this overshoot.

Kehan Long, Yiqi Zhao, Pol Mestres +3

Contextual Robotics Institute, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA · Thomas Lord Department of Computer Science, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA · Department of Mechanical and Civil Engineering, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA +1

Distribution Shift Robustness Uncertainty Quantification Conformal Prediction Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization

Aug 29, 2026cs.CV

GramLoop: Training-Free Gram-Gated Replay for Robust Dense Prediction

We aim to improve frozen DINOv3 dense-prediction models under distribution shift by adding inference computation inside the visual backbone, without changing model weights, task adapters, or prediction heads. The challenge is that repeated transformer-block computation must refine dense features without disrupting the pairwise patch relations that DINOv3 uses to preserve spatial structure. We introduce GramLoop, a training-free framework that replays a short transformer window and controls each replay through final-layer cosine-Gram consistency. Each proposal is propagated through the frozen suffix, measured against the standard DINOv3 trajectory, and accepted through a patchwise gate at the replay-window endpoint. Across object detection and semantic segmentation under corruptions, perturbations, and natural shifts, GramLoop improves all five shifted benchmarks over the paired DINOv3 baseline. On COCO-O, it improves mAP by +0.252 and Effective Robustness by +0.250, while preserving clean ADE20K performance. Code will be released at https://github.com/cheyan9/GramLoop.

Yang Chen, Canyu Shen, Xinzhe Rao +5

Huazhong University of Science and Technology · Tongji University · King Abdullah University of Science and Technology +2

Distribution Shift Robustness Test-Time Adaptation Vision Foundation Model Adaptation Object Detection Dense Prediction Semantic Segmentation

Aug 13, 2026cs.LG

ProME: Prototype-Margin Environments with Repair-Aware Selection for Group-Robust Learning

Group-robust learning is crucial for maintaining accuracy on rare subpopulations when training-group labels are unavailable. However, existing methods often infer environments from a separate reference model and select representations before fitting the classifier used at deployment, leaving both decisions misaligned with the deployed predictor. In this work, we formulate group robustness without training-group labels as the endogenous environments with repair-aware selection (ERAS) problem, and propose ProME (Prototype-Margin Environments) to align both decisions with the deployed predictor. ProME splits prototype margins at their median to construct approximately balanced environments along the training trajectory, and fits a group-balanced linear head on group-annotated validation data to rank the resulting predictors by validation worst-group accuracy. We theoretically bound the worst risk across the inferred environments for a fixed predictor and partition, showing that this bound transfers to the oracle groups under an explicit alignment condition. Extensive experiments show that prototype margins enrich shortcut-conflicting examples, classifier repair reshapes candidate evaluation, and ProME achieves the highest average worst-group accuracy among the compared methods with the same group-label access.

Qianqian Wang, Yunshan Li, Dawei Huang +2

aShenzhen Key Laboratory of Safety and Security for Next Generation of Industrial Internet, Shenzhen, China · bDepartment of Statistics and Data Science, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China

Distribution Shift Robustness Spurious Correlation Robustness

Aug 13, 2026stat.ML

Statistical Properties of Robust Learning under Distributional Shifts

Distributional shifts arise when the target deployment environment differs from the source environment that generated the training data. Robust learning frameworks such as Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) and Robust Satisficing (RS) aim to address this challenge, yet their finite-sample guarantees under such shifts, and their systematic comparison, remain underexplored: existing analyses typically establish guarantees either in the source environment or for adversarial worst-case performance over an ambiguity set. This paper instead studies generalization error in the target environment---the excess loss under the shifted target distribution. Our contributions are threefold. First, we derive finite-sample generalization error bounds in the shifted target environment for both DRO and RS. These bounds explicitly characterize the trade-off between reduced sensitivity to shift and the regularization penalty induced by each method's robustness hyperparameter, and they avoid the curse of dimensionality associated with Wasserstein empirical concentration. Second, when partial shift information such as shift magnitude or direction is available, we propose information-directed hyperparameter calibrations and compare the two methods given the same information. Under these calibrations, and in the partial-information regimes we study, DRO and RS exhibit complementary theoretical and empirical behavior. Finally, we apply the framework to a network lot-sizing problem, using it to interpret how robust policies respond to positive shifts in the demand distribution. Together, these results fill a gap in understanding the statistical properties of robust learning methods under distributional shifts and provide a principled basis for comparing DRO and RS.

Zhiyi Li, Xiaojie Mao, Yunbei Xu +1

National University of Singapore · Tsinghua University · University College London

Distribution Shift Robustness Distributionally Robust Optimization Robust Optimization Statistical Learning Theory

Aug 8, 2026cs.LG

From Uncertainty to Failure Attribution: Self-Diagnosing Models for Failure Attribution under Distribution Shift

Distribution shift poses a significant challenge to the robustness of machine learning models, but the current solutions only aim to detect out-of-distribution (OOD) samples and predict uncertainty levels. We introduce a problem setting for failure attribution under distribution shift, which enables the models not only to detect OOD samples, but also to find out the reason for their failure. The solution we propose is called self-diagnosing models, which are capable of jointly learning predictive output, predictive uncertainty, and a failure attribution signal. In particular, we use the failure attribution vector, produced by a neural network, which provides a structured representation of predictive unreliability by distinguishing four different types of failures: covariance shift, semantic shift, noise corruption, and adversarial perturbation. In other words, we move from scalar uncertainty towards failure identification. For training the model, we introduce a consistency regularizer that encourages consistency between uncertainty and failure attribution predictions. Moreover, to be able to evaluate the model on its ability to find the reasons for failure, we construct several distribution shift benchmarks with predefined mechanisms for generating distribution shifts.

Yiyao Yang

Columbia University

Distribution Shift Robustness Uncertainty Quantification OOD Detection

Aug 6, 2026cs.LG

Target-Weighted Neyman Allocation: Experimental Design for Heterogeneous Treatment Effects under Population Shift

Randomized experiments are often run in one population to guide decisions in another. Allocating by experimental proportions wastes budget on groups that rarely appear in deployment, whereas allocating by deployment proportions under-samples groups that are hard to measure precisely. We propose \textbf{TWNA} (Target-Weighted Neyman Allocation), a two-stage stratified design that uses pilot estimates of group--arm outcome variances to allocate final-stage sample sizes and treatment probabilities for target-weighted group average treatment effect (GATE) precision. The oracle rule has a closed form and balances deployment importance with statistical difficulty; the plug-in rule recovers it as pilot variance estimates stabilize. We also extend TWNA to handle uncertainty about deployment composition, remaining robust whether the target mix is roughly known or entirely unknown. Finally, we distinguish this weight robustness from a pilot-robust variant for skewed, rare-event, or contaminated outcomes. Simulations and real-covariate benchmarks show the largest gains when groups are both deployment-important and difficult to measure.

Hoang Dang, Luan Pham, Minh Nguyen

Independent Researcher · University of New South Wales, Australia · Florida Atlantic University, USA

Distribution Shift Robustness Causal Effect Estimation Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation

Aug 5, 2026cs.LG

MGSB: Manifold Gated Signature Branch Pressure-Domain Baseline Architecture for Two-Phase Pipeline Flows Under Distributional Shift

Leak detection models for multiphase pipelines often degrade when deployed under flow regimes that differ from training. Existing evaluations typically assess performance under in-distribution operating conditions, masking failures caused by regime transitions such as bubble-to-slug flow. We propose the Manifold Gated Signature Bias (MGSB), a regime-aware architecture combining regime-conditioned feature fusion, a TT-RoughPath encoder, and Mean-Teacher consistency regularization to improve robustness under distribution shift. Under leave-one-group-out evaluation, MGSB achieves a detection F1 of 0.930 and an OOD F1 of 0.783, substantially outperforming CNN-LSTM and fully connected baselines under severe feature corruption. Ablations show the proposed architecture, not the training procedure, is the primary contributor to OOD robustness, while Mahalanobis-distance analysis confirms the held-out conditions are genuinely out-of-distribution. These results show that explicit regime-aware modelling is a practical path toward robust, sensor-agnostic leak detection in industrial multiphase pipelines.

Issah Suleiman, Sormeh Serpoosh, Nadine Elkholy +3

Distribution Shift Robustness OOD Generalization Industrial Anomaly Detection

Aug 5, 2026cs.LG

Robustness Emerges Early in Training Dynamics, but Is Not Preserved

Robustness to natural corruptions remains a fundamental challenge for deep neural networks. In this paper, we identify a robustness fading phenomenon where shallow layers spontaneously develop robust representations and flat loss landscapes in early training, yet these properties are not preserved during standard convergence. To address this, we propose a framework that performs strategic interventions on training dynamics to stabilize the empirically identified early-emergent robust priors. Our approach includes two parameter-free strategies: Early-Phase Stabilization~(EPS) and Asymmetric Weight Reversion~(AWR), which stabilize or recover robust shallow configurations without modifying the model architecture or introducing learnable parameters. Extensive experiments demonstrate the efficacy of our framework across various benchmarks and architectures, yielding significant gains in downstream transfer, dynamic adaptation, and diverse computer vision applications.

Jiangang Yang, Wenhui Shi, Lu Hu +2

Institute of Microelectronics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China · University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Distribution Shift Robustness Representation Learning Neural Network Robustness Corruption Robustness Neural Network Training Dynamics

Aug 5, 2026cs.LG

When Proxy Prediction Becomes Equation Reconstruction: Diagnostics and Residual Learning for Factor-Derived Proxy Supervision

Scientific machine learning often relies on proxy targets computed from known domain factors when direct observations are limited. When those same factors are used as model inputs, however, high predictive accuracy may reflect reconstruction of the proxy-generating equation rather than robustness to degraded factor information. We study this problem in RUSLE-derived soil-loss proxy prediction under controlled degradation of the soil-erodibility factor

K

. We introduce a diagnostic framework that combines degraded-formula references, classical tree-based baselines, matched direct and formula-feature predictors, contextual ablations, tail-error analysis, and degradation robustness scoring. We then propose RASPL, a formula-preserving residual framework that retains the degraded formula estimate as the prediction anchor and learns an adaptively gated contextual correction. RASPL substantially outperforms matched direct prediction and provides stronger degradation and tail robustness than treating the formula estimate as an ordinary input feature. Within RASPL, a compact statistical encoder achieves the highest macro-averaged

R^2

and lowest computational cost, whereas a convolutional encoder achieves the strongest degradation robustness and lowest Tail95 mean absolute error (MAE). These results establish formula preservation as the central design principle for robust learning from factor-derived proxy targets.

Chayan Lahiri, Ahmed Shafee, Cody Fehringer

Department of Geosciences, Adams State University, Alamosa, Colorado, USA · Department of Computer Science, Adams State University, Alamosa, Colorado, USA · Devils Staircase Wildland Fire Module, Siuslaw National Forest, US Forest Service

Distribution Shift Robustness Residual Learning Scientific ML

Aug 4, 2026cs.CV

Test-Time Augmentation for Tabular-to-Image Classifiers under Distribution Shifts

Tabular-to-image methods that convert tabular data into visual representations have emerged as a novel paradigm for leveraging the high performance of deep learning models. Despite their advantages, the robustness of these methods under distribution shifts remains under explored. Test-Time Augmentation (TTA) is an effective approach in image classification to improve model generalization and robustness, where predictions over multiple transformed views of each input are aggregated. This work evaluates the impact of TTA techniques on predictive performance under Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) for representations generated by tabular-to-image methods. Six tabular-to-image encoding methods were considered: TINTO, IGTD, DeepInsight, BIE, DistanceMatrix, Fotomics. Twenty-five TTA techniques were used, organized into six types: Geometric, Photometric, Structural, Frequency/Encoding, Mixup, and Composite. We employed two datasets from the TableShift benchmark (HELOC and Voting) that provide in-distribution and OOD test subsets designed to evaluate the effect of distribution shifts on tabular data. The results indicate that TTA improves OOD performance, with composite and photometric strategies providing the best trade-off between robustness and variance. In contrast, frequency-domain transformations that alter the encoder's feature-to-intensity mapping consistently degrade performance. These findings highlight TTA as a promising approach for improving the robustness and generalization of classifiers trained on image representations derived from tabular data, particularly under distribution shifts.

Malena Loza, Felipe Grijalva, Eva Milara +3

Colegio de Ciencias e Ingenierías, Universidad San Francisco de Quito (USFQ), Quito, Ecuador · Department of Signal Theory and Communications, Telematics and Computing Systems, Rey Juan Carlos University, Madrid, Spain · Faculty of Experimental Sciences, Universidad Francisco de Vitoria, Madrid, Spain

Distribution Shift Robustness Distribution Shift OOD Generalization Test-Time Augmentation

Aug 3, 2026cs.LG

Population-Robust Feature Selection via Generalized Welfare Optimization

Choosing which features to collect is a deployment decision: the same limited questionnaire, test panel, or sensor set may need to serve several heterogeneous populations. Standard feature-selection methods typically optimize for one large population, while existing robust approaches tend to learn one shared model for every population. We introduce PopFS, a method for learning one shared, deployable feature set that is robust to population differences while letting each pop- ulation train its own model. PopFS uses a tunable welfare objective that lets practitioners balance overall predictive ben- efit against stronger protection of the populations that benefit least. To make this objective practical at scale, PopFS first uses multitask sparse learning to reduce the candidate pool, then searches directly over hard feature sets by ranking promising additions and swaps and fully refitting only a shortlist. Across eight population splits from six prediction tasks drawn from five tabular and public-health datasets, PopFS consistently achieves strong average and worst-population performance while scaling to thousands of candidate features. A 43-state COVID-19 nowcasting study further shows that changing the welfare objective can improve the least-served states with lit- tle change in average performance and yields an interpretable change in the selected symptom signals. Our code is available at https://github.com/Rachel-Lyu/PopFS.

Ruiqi Lyu, Alistair Turcan, Bryan Wilder

Carnegie Mellon University

Distribution Shift Robustness Feature Selection

Aug 3, 2026cs.AI

Trustworthy AI in Digital Health: A Comprehensive Review of Robustness and Explainability

Ensuring trust in AI systems is essential for the safe and ethical integration of machine learning systems into high-stakes domains such as digital health. Key dimensions, including robustness, explainability, fairness, accountability, and privacy, need to be addressed throughout the AI lifecycle, from problem formulation and data collection to model deployment and human interaction. While various contributions address different aspects of trustworthy AI, a focused synthesis on robustness and explainability, especially tailored to the healthcare context, remains limited. This review addresses that need by organizing recent advancements into an accessible framework, highlighting both technical and practical considerations. We present a structured overview of methods, challenges, and solutions, aiming to support researchers and practitioners in developing reliable and explainable AI solutions for digital health. This review article is organized into three main parts. First, we introduce the pillars of trustworthy AI and discuss the technical and ethical challenges, particularly in the context of digital health. Second, we explore application-specific trust considerations across domains such as intensive care, neonatal health, and metabolic health, highlighting how robustness and explainability support trust. Lastly, we present recent advancements in techniques aimed at improving robustness under data scarcity and distributional shifts, as well as explainable AI methods ranging from feature attribution to gradient-based interpretations and counterfactual explanations. This paper is further enriched with detailed discussions of the contributions toward robustness and explainability in digital health, the development of trustworthy AI systems in the era of LLMs, and various evaluation metrics for measuring trust and related parameters such as validity, fidelity, and diversity.

Abdullah Mamun, Shovito Barua Soumma, Hassan Ghasemzadeh

College of Health Solutions, Arizona State University, Phoenix, AZ, USA · School of Computing and Augmented Intelligence, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA

Distribution Shift Robustness Explainable Artificial Intelligence Trust in AI

Aug 2, 2026cs.LG

Subtype Robustness Is Not Just Accuracy: Calibration Under Unseen Subtype Shift

Subtype robustness asks whether a model keeps the correct coarse prediction when test examples come from fine-grained subtypes absent from training but still inside a known coarse category. Prior work studies this almost entirely through accuracy. We ask whether the model also stays calibrated. We present the first systematic study of the question across ImageNet, BREEDS, iNaturalist and CIFAR-100 with five architectures. Calibration breaks down on unseen subtypes, where accuracy drops while confidence barely follows, leaving the model systematically overconfident exactly where it has become less accurate. At matched accuracy loss, generic image corruption causes a much larger drop in confidence, so the effect is not a general consequence of losing accuracy. The model reacts to visible degradation but not to in-taxonomy novelty. Recalibration tuned on seen subtypes narrows the gap but does not close it, and out-of-distribution scores flag the affected inputs only weakly. Subtype robustness should therefore be evaluated through calibration, not accuracy alone.

Hanyu Su, Carlota Julbe i Juanola, Yibo Hu

Illinois Institute of Technology

Distribution Shift Robustness Neural Network Robustness Model Calibration Classification

Aug 1, 2026stat.ME

Augmented Inverse Hybrid Weighting: Robust Inference under Deterministic and Random Distribution Shifts

Reweighting source samples to match a target covariate distribution is a standard response to distribution shift when generalizing evidence from one population to another. This strategy is well suited to deterministic, learnable covariate discrepancies, but can be insufficient when source--target population differences also contain changes beyond covariate shift or when estimation of the density-ratio weights is unstable. To address this challenge, we introduce a new model that allows non-systematic changes between two population laws after systematic shifts are accounted for. Such residual shift is modeled as random perturbations to the probability space that cannot be represented in a learnable way. In this way, we separate systematic shifts, treated as bias and corrected by reweighting, from residual random perturbations, treated as distributional uncertainty and handled through dataset pooling. Under pure random perturbations, this principle yields Augmented Inverse Distance Weighting (AIDW), which uses regression augmentation and variance-optimal dataset-level pooling. For mixed shifts, we develop Augmented Inverse Hybrid Weighting (AIHW), which interpolates between AIDW and standard augmented importance weighting. Both methods trade off sampling uncertainty and distributional uncertainty via a \emph{distributional distance} that describes the strength of random perturbations. We establish asymptotic properties of the methods, together with plug-in guidance for choosing tuning parameters and model diagnostic tools. Experiments on three real-world multi-site datasets demonstrate consistent reductions in mean-squared error compared with standard weighting baselines, along with substantially improved empirical coverage in settings where covariate-shift adjustment alone undercovers, showing the robustness of the proposed methods across diverse distribution shift scenarios.

Ying Jin, Ying Jin, Dominik Rothenhäusler

Inverse Probability Weighting Distribution Shift Robustness Importance Sampling Covariate Shift

Aug 1, 2026cs.LG

Learning the Pareto Frontier of Predictive Models under Distribution Shift

Modern machine learning pipelines increasingly rely on reusing pretrained and foundation models across downstream tasks. These pretrained models can differ not only in performance but also in how they can be used: some only provide black-box predictions, while others may permit white-box access to internal representations that can be probed or fine-tuned. When deployed to the target domain in the presence of distribution shift, no single strategy, including zero-shot application, fine-tuning, or directly training a target-specific model, is uniformly the best. In this work, we propose Frontier Learning, a framework that treats a library of candidate models spanning different training histories and access regimes as complementary sources of information rather than mutually exclusive alternatives. Frontier Learning constructs a unified target-domain feature by concatenating internal representations from white-box candidates as well as prediction outputs from black-box candidates, then fits a lightweight, regularized supervised learner on this concatenated representation using labeled target data. Because the resulting hypothesis class contains predictors obtained by zero-shot reuse, fine-tuning, and direct training as special cases, empirical risk minimization over the frontier learner is guaranteed to be no worse, on the training sample, than any individual baseline. We evaluate the framework in simulations spanning varying degrees of source-target compatibility and in two real-world distribution-shift settings: visual domain adaptation on DomainNet/VisDA and clinical mortality prediction across intensive care unit domains using MIMIC-IV-Notes. Across all settings, Frontier Learning matches or outperforms the strongest individual reuse strategy, with the largest gains arising precisely when no single baseline is reliable across the range of shift considered.

Yiming Dong, Jiwei Zhao, Yang Young Lu

Department of Biostatistics & Medical Informatics, University of Wisconsin–Madison · Department of Statistics, University of Wisconsin–Madison · Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Wisconsin–Madison

Distribution Shift Robustness Vision Foundation Model Adaptation Cross-Domain Transfer Learning

Jul 30, 2026cs.LG

KAISEN: Reproducible Subgroup Fairness Auditing for Clinical Risk Models

Clinical risk models routinely achieve strong aggregate performance while producing materially different error rates across patient subgroups. Audit pipelines have been proposed to catch this, but their components are rarely stress-tested, so it is unclear which parts of an audit can be trusted and under what conditions. We present KAISEN, a five-phase audit pipeline covering subgroup stratification, disparity measurement, mechanism diagnostics, post-hoc mitigation, and drift monitoring, evaluated to the point of failure on a synthetic benchmark of 16 disease tasks, 15 social-determinant axes from Healthy People 2030, and three prespecified intersections. Four findings follow. (i) Significance tracks each axis's gap against its own minimum detectable effect: rank correlation between significance count and raw equalized-odds difference (EOD) across the 15 axes is rho = 0.56, rising to rho = 0.78 once EOD is standardized by that floor. (ii) Per-group threshold optimization reduces EOD in 48 of 48 held-out runs (paired delta = -0.285, 95% CI [-0.313, -0.252]), while group-wise Platt scaling -- the better calibrator -- behaves as a coin flip on EOD (19 of 48 runs improved, 95% CI [0.26, 0.55]) with mean effect near zero, so what an audit should report is the variance, not the average. (iii) The mechanism diagnostic classifies 144 of 144 controlled cases correctly but recovers none of 48 model-driven cases under proxy misspecification, with no signal that it failed. (iv) CUSUM failures and false alarms track cohort realization far more than disease: at the reference threshold, all 27 false alarms and 7 of 8 missed shifts come from different seeds (chi-squared p = 0.002), so a threshold tuned on one cohort fails to transfer. All results are synthetic with known ground truth and do not establish clinical validity. Code, artifacts, and scripts reproducing every number are released.

Sparsh Roy, Samuel Girmachew, Nishita Chavan

Massachusetts Institute of Technology · Hopewell Valley Central High School · East Brunswick High School

Distribution Shift Robustness Algorithmic Fairness Clinical Risk Prediction

Jul 28, 2026cs.LG

Empirical Evaluation of Out-Of-Distribution Performance of Tabular Foundation Models

Tabular Foundation Models (TFMs) have emerged as novel approaches for tabular predictive tasks, demonstrating competitive predictive performance to ensemble tree-based models. Most TFMs are trained and evaluated on independent and identically distributed data, but this assumption changes in real-world scenarios due to distribution shifts, which compromise the robustness of models. Limited research has been conducted of TFMs under distribution shifts. We present an empirical evaluation of Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) performance of nine TFMs, spanning diverse pre-training strategies and architectures: TabPFNv2, TabPFNv2.5, TabPFNv2.6, TabPFNv3, TabICL, TabICLv2, Mitra, LimiX and TabFM. Three real-world datasets from the TableShift study were considered (HELOC, Voting, Childhood Lead), covering label, socioeconomic, and geographic shift types. Our results show that all evaluated TFMs degrade systematically under distribution shift regardless of pre-training strategy, with shift gaps ranging from 0.003 to 0.060 depending on shift type. The relationship between in-distribution and OOD predictive performance documented for classical tabular models extends into TFMs. We also identified a scalability gap, as high-performing models demand significant memory and computational resources beyond what standard deployment infrastructure can support. This study extends existing benchmarks for OOD in tabular data, providing evidence to support their adoption in high-stakes domains characterized by structural distribution shifts.

Malena Loza, David Chushig-Muzo, Eva Milara +3

Colegio de Ciencias e Ingenierías, Universidad San Francisco de Quito (USFQ), Quito, Ecuador · Department of Signal Theory and Communications, Telematics and Computing Systems, Rey Juan Carlos University, Madrid, Spain · Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad Latina de Panamá, Ciudad de Panamá, Panamá

Distribution Shift Robustness Tabular Foundation Models Distribution Shift OOD Generalization

Jul 28, 2026cs.CV

A Distributional Robustness Margin For Pathology Foundation Models

Pathology foundation models encode non-biological variation introduced by tissue preparation, staining and scanning, enabling shortcut learning that undermines generalisation across institutions. The Robustness Index (RI} was proposed to assess whether local representation geometry is dominated by biological or non-biological variation. However, its construction suffers from structural limitations that make cross-model comparison unreliable and call for a more principled metric. We introduce the Cross-confounder Robustness Margin (CRoMa), which measures, for each sample, whether biologically matched samples differing in the confounder lie closer in representation space than confounder-matched samples differing in biology. By design, CRoMa recasts robustness as a cohort-wide distribution of sample-level margins. We evaluated frozen representations from 20 tile-level encoders across three benchmarks and 4 slide-level encoders on a fourth. Median CRoMa rankings were broadly consistent across cohorts, yet all encoders contained confounder-dominated subsets whose prevalence and severity varied substantially across models and cohorts. Higher CRoMa margins were associated with smaller shortcut-induced performance drops after supervised adaptation, indicating that CRoMa can be a valuable tool for assessing model robustness on downstream tasks.

Clément Grisi, Jeroen van der Laak, Geert Litjens

Department of Pathology, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, The Netherlands

Distribution Shift Robustness Neural Network Robustness Pathology Foundation Models Shortcut Learning

Jul 23, 2026cs.LG

Smart predict-then-robustly-optimize

In this paper, we propose and study a robust variant of the smart predict-then-optimize approach that accounts for prediction shifts due to disturbance in the covariate feature space. While traditional integrated-learning-and-optimization models assume that side information is perfectly revealed, empirical data-driven features are frequently corrupted or noisy at the time of decision-making, leading to fragile operational policies. To bridge this gap, we integrate principles of robust optimization directly into the predictive-prescriptive pipeline via a smart predict-then-robustly optimize loss and establish a computationally tractable convex surrogate, designed to hedge against worst-case feature perturbations. On the theoretical front, we formalize the structural validity of this surrogate by proving its approximation error probability decays exponentially according to a sub-Gaussian concentration profile. Furthermore, we establish that under mild assumptions, the surrogate is Fisher consistent with high probability. We also prove necessary conditions under which our framework outperforms standard smart predict-then-optimize and maintain its superiority even when the standard method is equipped with regularized upstream predictions. Numerical experiments validate that our robust framework consistently yields significant performance improvements over standard methods, both in out-of-sample terms and in training stability.

Aakil Caunhye, Xuefei Lu, Belen Martin-Barragan

Distribution Shift Robustness Predict-Then-Optimize Decision-Focused Learning Robust Optimization Robust Loss Functions Statistical Learning Theory

Jul 21, 2026cs.CV

Learning Semantic-Robust Change Detection via Semantic-Invariant Self-Distillation

Change detection aims to identify semantic changes between remote sensing images. However, features from models are easily disturbed by non-semantic variations, such as illumination, shadows, and atmospheric changes, leading to false alarms and limited generalization in real-world scenarios. In this paper, we propose \textbf{SCDistill}, a framework for learning semantic-robust change detection via semantic-invariant self-distillation. First, to strengthen semantic consistency, we introduce a semantic-invariant self-distillation strategy that learns semantic robustness from perturbed yet semantically consistent data, empowering the change detector to extract disturbance-resistant features and achieve more reliable and accurate semantic change identification. Second, to expand paired data with non-semantic variations, we design a diffusion-based perturbation simulation pipeline that synthesizes complex environmental changes, enabling the model to explicitly learn to distinguish semantic changes from appearance-level fluctuations and reduce false alarms caused by non-semantic disturbances. These components promote robustness from data and representation perspectives, leading to synergistic performance gains. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SCDistill achieves state-of-the-art performance on multiple semantic change detection benchmarks and exhibits strong generalization to binary change detection and change captioning tasks. Code is accessible at https://github.com/elecreak/SCDistill.

Jiuhe Qu, Yingping Liang, Ying Fu

Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China

Distribution Shift Robustness Remote Sensing Change Detection Self-Distillation Semantic Change Detection

Jul 20, 2026cs.CV

Recti-Q: Feature-Space Rectification for Out-of-Distribution-Robust Quantized Perception in Edge Robotics

Robotic perception pipelines increasingly rely on large vision backbones deployed on SWaP-constrained edge platforms, making post-training quantization (PTQ) attractive for real-time inference. However, while PTQ often preserves clean in-distribution accuracy, we show that it can substantially degrade reliability under deployment-relevant distribution shifts (e.g., sensor noise, severe weather, and novel operating environments), creating a Quantization-Induced Robustness Gap. Across foundational vision benchmarks (ImageNet-C and PACS), 4-bit PTQ models exhibit pronounced robustness degradation despite negligible ID accuracy loss. To address this, we propose Recti-Q, a lightweight feature-space rectification framework that freezes the quantized backbone and trains a small classifier-head LoRA adapter using only source data. Recti-Q is architecture-agnostic across CNNs and Transformers, supports efficient teacher-free training, and recovers a significant portion of the lost robustness, in some cases matching or exceeding FP32 performance. At less than 1% parameter overhead (as small as 6 KB), Recti-Q preserves over 99% of PTQ memory savings, adds negligible compute, and enables low-bandwidth Over-The-Air (OTA) resilience patching for deployed robotic fleets operating in unpredictable physical environments.

Hamidreza Yaghoubi Araghi, Parastoo Pilevar, Ming C. Lin

University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA

Distribution Shift Robustness Image Corruption Robustness Edge Inference Neural Network Robustness Post-Training Quantization Neural Network Quantization

Jul 20, 2026cs.LG

The Label Complexity of Useful Class-Conditional Prediction Sets under Distribution Shift

Prediction sets can make deployed classifiers safer by returning several plausible labels when a single prediction is uncertain. Their value depends on classwise reliability: average coverage can meet its target while rare or difficult classes fail repeatedly. This concern is sharper after distribution shift, when calibration labels come from a source environment but reliability is needed on the target. We ask what labeled source data and unlabeled target inputs reveal about class-conditional prediction sets, and when target labels are necessary. Under unrestricted joint shift, two target laws can produce the same observable data while requiring different classwise thresholds; any label-free rule covering both must enlarge its sets on one law. We give a labeled target audit that estimates the missing quantiles with a simultaneous guarantee. Probability-scale error is invariant to increasing score transformations, and threshold recovery follows under local regularity. At fixed confidence, achieving threshold tolerance

\varepsilon

with fixed, nonadaptive class-stratified labeled pairs has total complexity

Θ(K\varepsilon^{-2}\log K)

, or

Θ(\varepsilon^{-2}\log K)

labels per class under equal allocation. Class imbalance creates a separate acquisition cost; for foreground class probabilities of order

1/K

, the mixed-stream label complexity is also

Θ(K\varepsilon^{-2}\log K)

at fixed confidence. Experiments on action-recognition and image shifts show that marginal coverage can conceal severe class failures and that source classwise calibration depends on the shift. The results connect the information available at deployment to the target labels needed for useful class-conditional prediction.

Weijia Han, Lisha Qu, Tianxin Zhou +2

University of Washington

Distribution Shift Robustness Conformal Prediction

Jul 20, 2026cs.RO

Does Robust VIO Need More Learning? Geometry-Verified Visual Measurements under Distribution Shift

Learning is increasingly introduced into visual-inertial odometry (VIO), ranging from learned feature front-ends to learning-dominant motion and geometry estimation. However, learning more of the pipeline does not necessarily improve robustness when deployment conditions differ from the training distribution. This work asks whether robust VIO under distribution shift truly requires deeper learned estimation, or whether learning can be confined to visual measurement generation. We propose a minimal-learning stereo VIO framework in which SEA-RAFT is used only to propose dense stereo correspondences and predict their uncertainty, while temporal tracking, geometric verification, and state estimation remain explicit. Dense flow is sampled at sparse feature locations, filtered using predicted uncertainty and stereo epipolar consistency, and incorporated into a sliding-window stereo-inertial estimator through uncertainty-weighted reprojection factors. The same uncertainty is further propagated through stereo triangulation for downstream anisotropic 3D Gaussian mapping. Experiments on EuRoC, VIODE, and 4Seasons demonstrate accurate and stable estimation under motion blur, dynamic scenes, illumination changes, and large indoor-to-outdoor distribution shifts. Ablations show that learned flow alone is insufficient: the gains arise from combining learned correspondence proposals with geometric verification and uncertainty-aware weighting. These results suggest that, for OOD-robust VIO, carefully integrated learned visual measurements can be more effective than learning a larger fraction of the estimation pipeline. Code and configs for the benchmark will be open-source upon acceptance. A supplementary video is available at https://drive.google.com/file/d/1EVRhOkhanmNXHbQS1Vr80FoEIAYOYOV2/view

Yangyang Ning, Shu Liang, Quanbo Ge +3

Department of Control Science and Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China

Distribution Shift Robustness Visual-Inertial Odometry

Jul 15, 2026cs.LG

Distributionally Robust and Safe Imitation Learning

Imitation learning (IL) has achieved remarkable success in complex decision-making tasks. However, its performance is highly sensitive to distribution shifts, which can pose significant safety risks. We propose a distributionally robust and safe IL framework that explicitly addresses both policy-induced and uncertainty-induced distribution shifts. Our approach develops a unified framework leveraging Taylor Series Imitation Learning (TaSIL) to mitigate policy-induced shifts and distributionally robust adaptive control to handle uncertainty-induced shifts. This architecture enables the formulation of an IL problem that optimizes performance under distributional uncertainty while systematically accounting for safety constraints. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach on an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) case study where the UAV performs a task in an uncertain environment while avoiding unsafe regions.

Ahmed Aboudonia, Naira Hovakimyan

University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA · University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA

Distribution Shift Robustness Distributionally Robust Optimization Imitation Learning