Distribution Shift Robustness

Uncertainty quantification is essential for deploying machine learning models in high-stakes domains such as scientific discovery and healthcare. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides finite-sample coverage guarantees under exchangeability, an assumption often violated in practice due to distribution shift. Under covariate shift, restoring validity requires importance weighting, yet accurate density-ratio estimation becomes unstable when training and test distributions exhibit limited support overlap. We propose KMM-CP, a conformal prediction framework based on Kernel Mean Matching (KMM) for covariate-shift correction. We show that KMM directly controls the bias-variance components governing conformal coverage error by minimizing RKHS moment discrepancy under explicit weight constraints, and establish asymptotic coverage guarantees under mild conditions. We then introduce a selective extension that identifies regions of reliable support overlap and restricts conformal correction to this subset, further improving stability in low-overlap regimes. Experiments on molecular property prediction benchmarks with realistic distribution shifts show that KMM-CP reduces coverage gap by over 50% compared to existing approaches. The code is available at https://github.com/siddharthal/KMM-CP.

Foundation models excel in stable environments, yet often fail where reliability matters most: medicine, finance, and policy. This Fidelity Paradox is not just a data problem; it is structural. In domains where rules change over time, extra model capacity amplifies noise rather than capturing signal. We introduce Epistemic Compression: the principle that robustness emerges from matching model complexity to the shelf life of the data, not from scaling parameters. Unlike classical regularization, which penalizes weights post hoc, Epistemic Compression enforces parsimony through architecture: the model structure itself is designed to reduce overfitting by making it architecturally costly to represent variance that exceeds the evidence in the data. We operationalize this with a Regime Index that separates Shifting Regime (unstable, data-poor; simplicity wins) from Stable Regime (invariant, data-rich; complexity viable). In an exploratory synthesis of 15 high-stakes domains, this index was concordant with the empirically superior modeling strategy in 86.7% of cases (13/15). High-stakes AI demands a shift from scaling for its own sake to principled parsimony.

Standard conformal anomaly detection provides marginal finite-sample guarantees under the assumption of exchangeability . However, real-world data often exhibit distribution shifts, necessitating a weighted conformal approach to adapt to local non-stationarity. We show that this adaptation induces a critical trade-off between the minimum attainable p-value and its stability. As importance weights localize to relevant calibration instances, the effective sample size decreases. This can render standard conformal p-values overly conservative for effective error control, while the smoothing technique used to mitigate this issue introduces conditional variance, potentially masking anomalies. We propose a continuous inference relaxation that resolves this dilemma by decoupling local adaptation from tail resolution via continuous weighted kernel density estimation. While relaxing finite-sample exactness to asymptotic validity, our method eliminates Monte Carlo variability and recovers the statistical power lost to discretization. Empirical evaluations confirm that our approach not only restores detection capabilities where discrete baselines yield zero discoveries, but outperforms standard methods in statistical power while maintaining valid marginal error control in practice.

The accelerating pace of climate change introduces profound non-stationarities that challenge the ability of Machine Learning based climate emulators to generalize beyond their training distributions. While these emulators offer computationally efficient alternatives to traditional Earth System Models, their reliability remains a potential bottleneck under "no-analog" future climate states, which we define here as regimes where external forcing drives the system into conditions outside the empirical range of the historical training data. A fundamental challenge in evaluating this reliability is data contamination; because many models are trained on simulations that already encompass future scenarios, true out-of-distribution (OOD) performance is often masked. To address this, we benchmark the OOD robustness of three state-of-the-art architectures: U-Net, ConvLSTM, and the ClimaX foundation model specifically restricted to a historical-only training regime (1850-2014). We evaluate these models using two complementary strategies: (i) temporal extrapolation to the recent climate (2015-2023) and (ii) cross-scenario forcing shifts across divergent emission pathways. Our analysis within this experimental setup reveals an accuracy vs. stability trade-off: while the ClimaX foundation model achieves the lowest absolute error, it exhibits higher relative performance changes under distribution shifts, with precipitation errors increasing by up to 8.44% under extreme forcing scenarios. These findings suggest that when restricted to historical training dynamics, even high-capacity foundation models are sensitive to external forcing trajectories. Our results underscore the necessity of scenario-aware training and rigorous OOD evaluation protocols to ensure the robustness of climate emulators under a changing climate.

Feature selection is fundamental to robust data-centric AI, but most existing methods optimize predictive performance under a single data distribution. This often selects spurious features that fail under distribution shifts. Motivated by principles from causal invariance, we study feature selection from a stability perspective and introduce Causally-Guided Diffusion for Stable Feature Selection (CGDFS). In CGDFS, we formalized feature selection as approximate posterior inference over feature subsets, whose posterior mass favors low prediction error and low cross-environment variance. Our framework combines three key insights: First, we formulate feature selection as stability-aware posterior sampling. Here, causal invariance serves as a soft inductive bias rather than explicit causal discovery. Second, we train a diffusion model as a learned prior over plausible continuous selection masks, combined with a stability-aware likelihood that rewards invariance across environments. This diffusion prior captures structural dependencies among features and enables scalable exploration of the combinatorially large selection space. Third, we perform guided annealed Langevin sampling that combines the diffusion prior with the stability objective, which yields a tractable, uncertainty-aware posterior inference that avoids discrete optimization and produces robust feature selections. We evaluate CGDFS on open-source real-world datasets exhibiting distribution shifts. Across both classification and regression tasks, CGDFS consistently selects more stable and transferable feature subsets, which leads to improved out-of-distribution performance and greater selection robustness compared to sparsity-based, tree-based, and stability-selection baselines.

Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting in edge-enabled grids requires balancing forecasting accuracy, robustness under weather-driven distribution shifts, and strict latency constraints. Existing models work well under normal conditions but often struggle with rare ramp events and unexpected weather changes. Relying solely on cloud-based large models often leads to significant communication delays, which can hinder timely and efficient forecasting in practical grid environments. To address these issues, we propose a condition-adaptive cloud-edge collaborative framework CAPE for PV forecasting. CAPE consists of three main modules: a site-specific expert model for routine predictions, a lightweight edge-side model for enhanced local inference, and a cloud-based large retrieval model that provides relevant historical cases when needed. These modules are coordinated by a screening module that evaluates uncertainty, out-of-distribution risk, weather mutations, and model disagreement. Furthermore, we employ a Lyapunov-guided routing strategy to dynamically determine when to escalate inference to more powerful models under long-term system constraints. The final forecast is produced through adaptive fusion of the selected model outputs. Experiments on two real-world PV datasets demonstrate that CAPE achieves superior performance in terms of forecasting accuracy, robustness, routing quality, and system efficiency.

Uncertainty quantification for image data is dominated by complex deep learning methods, yet the field lacks an interpretable, mathematically grounded baseline. We propose Bayesian scattering to fill this gap, serving as a first-step baseline akin to the role of Bayesian linear regression for tabular data. Our method couples the wavelet scattering transform-a deep, non-learned feature extractor-with a simple probabilistic head. Because scattering features are derived from geometric principles rather than learned, they avoid overfitting the training distribution. This helps provide sensible uncertainty estimates even under significant distribution shifts. We validate this on diverse tasks, including medical imaging under institution shift, wealth mapping under country-to-country shift, and Bayesian optimization of molecular properties. Our results suggest that Bayesian scattering is a solid baseline for complex uncertainty quantification methods.

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) guides large language models (LLMs) to generate recommendations aligned with user historical behavior distributions by minimizing preference alignment loss. However, our systematic empirical research and theoretical analysis reveal that DPO tends to amplify spurious correlations caused by environmental confounders during the alignment process, significantly undermining the generalization capability of LLM-based generative recommendation methods in out of distribution (OOD) scenarios. To mitigate this issue, we propose CausalDPO, an extension of DPO that incorporates a causal invariance learning mechanism. This method introduces a backdoor adjustment strategy during the preference alignment phase to eliminate interference from environmental confounders, explicitly models the latent environmental distribution using a soft clustering approach, and enhances robust consistency across diverse environments through invariance constraints. Theoretical analysis demonstrates that CausalDPO can effectively capture users stable preference structures across multiple environments, thereby improving the OOD generalization performance of LLM-based recommendation models. We conduct extensive experiments under four representative distribution shift settings to validate the effectiveness of CausalDPO, achieving an average performance improvement of 17.17% across four evaluation metrics.

Deep learning models often struggle under natural distribution shifts, a common challenge in real-world deployments. Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) addresses this by adapting models during inference without labeled source data. We present the first evaluation of TTA methods for FER under natural domain shifts, performing cross-dataset experiments with widely used FER datasets. This moves beyond synthetic corruptions to examine real-world shifts caused by differing collection protocols, annotation standards, and demographics. Results show TTA can boost FER performance under natural shifts by up to 11.34%. Entropy minimization methods such as TENT and SAR perform best when the target distribution is clean. In contrast, prototype adjustment methods like T3A excel under larger distributional distance scenarios. Finally, feature alignment methods such as SHOT deliver the largest gains when the target distribution is noisier than our source. Our cross-dataset analysis shows that TTA effectiveness is governed by the distributional distance and the severity of the natural shift across domains.

Recent work has shown that Transformers can perform in-context learning for linear regression under restrictive assumptions, including i.i.d. data, Gaussian noise, and Gaussian regression coefficients. However, real-world data often violate these assumptions: the distributions of inputs, noise, and coefficients are typically unknown, non-Gaussian, and may exhibit dependency across the prompt. This raises a fundamental question: can Transformers learn effectively in-context under realistic distributional uncertainty? We study in-context learning for noisy linear regression under a broad range of distributional shifts, including non-Gaussian coefficients, heavy-tailed noise, and non-i.i.d. prompts. We compare Transformers against classical baselines that are optimal or suboptimal under the corresponding maximum-likelihood criteria. Across all settings, Transformers consistently match or outperform these baselines, demonstrating robust in-context adaptation beyond classical estimators.

In this paper, we develop a stochastic set-valued optimization (SVO) framework tailored for robust machine learning. In the SVO setting, each decision variable is mapped to a set of objective values, and optimality is defined via set relations. We focus on SVO problems with hyperbox sets, which can be reformulated as multi-objective optimization (MOO) problems with finitely many objectives and serve as a foundation for representing or approximating more general mapped sets. Two special cases of hyperbox-valued optimization (HVO) are interval-valued (IVO) and rectangle-valued (RVO) optimization. We construct stochastic IVO/RVO formulations that incorporate subquantiles and superquantiles into the objective functions of the MOO reformulations, providing a new characterization for subquantiles. These formulations provide interpretable trade-offs by capturing both lower- and upper-tail behaviors of loss distributions, thereby going beyond standard empirical risk minimization and classical robust models. To solve the resulting multi-objective problems, we adopt stochastic multi-gradient algorithms and select a Pareto knee solution. In numerical experiments, the proposed algorithms with this selection strategy exhibit improved robustness and reduced variability across test replications under distributional shift compared with empirical risk minimization, while maintaining competitive accuracy.

Internal noise in deep networks is usually inherited from heuristics such as dropout, hard masking, or additive perturbation. We ask two questions: what correlation geometry should internal noise have, and is the implemented perturbation compatible with the representations it acts on? We answer these questions through Variational Kernel Design (VKD), a framework in which a noise mechanism is specified by a law family, a correlation kernel, and an injection operator, and is derived from learning desiderata. In a solved spatial subfamily, a quadratic maximum-entropy principle over latent log-fields yields a Gaussian optimizer with precision given by the Dirichlet Laplacian, so the induced geometry is the Dirichlet Green kernel. Wick normalization then gives a canonical positive mean-one gate, Gaussian Chaos Noise (GCh). For the sample-wise gate used in practice, we prove exact Gaussian control of pairwise log-ratio deformation, margin-sensitive ranking stability, and an exact expected intrinsic roughness budget; hard binary masks instead induce singular or coherence-amplified distortions on positive coherent representations. On ImageNet and ImageNet-C, GCh consistently improves calibration and under shift also improves NLL at competitive accuracy.

The growing use of Machine Learning (ML) tools comes with critical challenges, such as limited model explainability. We propose a global explainability framework that leverages Optimal Transport and Distributionally Robust Optimization to analyze how ML algorithms respond to constrained data perturbations. Our approach enforces constraints on feature-level statistics (e.g., brightness, age distribution), generating realistic perturbations that preserve semantic structure. We provide a model-agnostic diagnostic bench that applies to both tabular and image domains with solid theoretical guarantees. We validate the approach on real-world datasets providing interpretable robustness diagnostics that complement standard evaluation and fairness auditing tools.

Addressing the domain adaptation problem becomes more challenging when distribution shifts across domains stem from latent confounders that affect both covariates and outcomes. Existing proxy-based approaches that address latent shift rely on a strong completeness assumption to uniquely determine (point-identify) a robust predictor. Completeness requires that proxies have sufficient information about variations in latent confounders. For imperfect proxies the mapping from confounders to the space of proxy distributions is non-injective, and multiple latent confounder values can generate the same proxy distribution. This breaks the completeness assumption and observed data are consistent with multiple potential predictors (set-identified). To address this, we introduce latent equivalent classes (LECs). LECs are defined as groups of latent confounders that induce the same conditional proxy distribution. We show that point-identification for the robust predictor remains achievable as long as multiple domains differ sufficiently in how they mix proxy-induced LECs to form the robust predictor. This domain diversity condition is formalized as a cross-domain rank condition on the mixture weights, which is substantially weaker assumption than completeness. We introduce the Proximal Quasi-Bayesian Active learning (PQAL) framework, which actively queries a small, targeted set of diverse domains that satisfy this rank condition. PQAL can recover the point-identified predictor, demonstrates robustness to varying degrees of shift and outperforms previous methods on synthetic data and semi-synthetic dSprites, IHDP, ACS Folktables datasets.

Developing predictive models that perform reliably across diverse patient populations and heterogeneous environments is a core aim of medical research. However, generalization is only possible if the learned model is robust to statistical differences between data used for training and data seen at the time and place of deployment. Domain generalization methods provide strategies to address data shifts, but each method comes with its own set of assumptions and trade-offs. To apply these methods in healthcare, we must understand how domain shifts arise, what assumptions we prefer to make, and what our design constraints are. This article proposes a causal framework for the design of predictive models to improve generalization. Causality provides a powerful language to characterize and understand diverse domain shifts, regardless of data modality. This allows us to pinpoint why models fail to generalize, leading to more principled strategies to prepare for and adapt to shifts. We recommend general mitigation strategies, discussing trade-offs and highlighting existing work. Our causality-based perspective offers a critical foundation for developing robust, interpretable, and clinically relevant AI solutions in healthcare, paving the way for reliable real-world deployment.

Real-world data in health, economics, and environmental sciences are often collected across heterogeneous domains (such as hospitals, regions, or time periods). In such settings, distributional shifts can make standard PCA unreliable, in that, for example, the leading principal components may explain substantially less variance in unseen domains than in the training domains. Existing approaches (such as FairPCA) have proposed to consider worst-case (rather than average) performance across multiple domains. This work develops a unified framework, called wcPCA, applies it to other objectives (resulting in the novel estimators such as norm-minPCA and norm-maxregret, which are better suited for applications with heterogeneous total variance) and analyzes their relationship. We prove that for all objectives, the estimators are worst-case optimal not only over the observed source domains but also over all target domains whose covariance lies in the convex hull of the (possibly normalized) source covariances. We establish consistency and asymptotic worst-case guarantees of empirical estimators. We extend our methodology to matrix completion, another problem that makes use of low-rank approximations, and prove approximate worst-case optimality for inductive matrix completion. Simulations and two real-world applications on ecosystem-atmosphere fluxes demonstrate marked improvements in worst-case performance, with only minor losses in average performance.

Time-series forecasting often faces challenges from non-stationarity, particularly distributional drift, where the data distribution evolves over time. This dynamic behavior can undermine the effectiveness of adaptive optimizers, such as Adam, which are typically designed for stationary objectives. In this paper, we revisit Adam in the context of non-stationary forecasting and identify that its second-order bias correction limits responsiveness to shifting loss landscapes. To address this, we propose TS_Adam, a lightweight variant that removes the second-order correction from the learning rate computation. This simple modification improves adaptability to distributional drift while preserving the optimizer core structure and requiring no additional hyperparameters. TS_Adam integrates easily into existing models and consistently improves performance across long- and short-term forecasting tasks. On the ETT datasets with the MICN model, it achieves an average reduction of 12.8% in MSE and 5.7% in MAE compared to Adam. These results underscore the practicality and versatility of TS_Adam as an effective optimization strategy for real-world forecasting scenarios involving non-stationary data. Code is available at: https://github.com/DD-459-1/TS_Adam.

We consider Markov decision processes (MDPs) with unknown disturbance distribution and address this problem using the robust Markov decision process (RMDP) approach. We construct the empirical distribution of the unknown disturbance distribution and characterize our ambiguity set of distributions as the sublevel set of a nonnegative distance function from the empirical distribution. By connecting the weak convergence of distributions to convergence with respect to the distance function, we prove that the robust optimal value function and the out-of-sample value function converge to the true optimal value function with increasing sample-sizes. We establish that, for finite sample-sizes, the robust optimal value function serves as a high probability upper bound on the out-of-sample value function. We also obtain probabilistic convergence rates, sample complexity bounds, and out-of-distribution performance bounds. The finite sample performance guarantees rely on the distance function satisfying a certain concentration type inequality. Several well-studied distances in the literature meet the requirements imposed on the distance function. We also analyze the data-driven properties of empirical MDPs and demonstrate that, unlike our data-driven RMDPs, empirical MDPs fail to satisfy some of the finite sample performance guarantees.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is a well-known challenge due to deep models often producing overconfident. In this paper, we reveal a key insight that trained classifiers tend to rely on sparse parameter contribution patterns, meaning that only a few dominant parameters drive predictions. This brittleness can be exploited by OOD inputs that anomalously trigger these parameters, resulting in overconfident predictions. To address this issue, we propose a simple yet effective method called Shaping Parameter Contribution Patterns (SPCP), which enhances OOD detection robustness by encouraging the classifier to learn boundary-oriented dense contribution patterns. Specifically, SPCP operates during training by rectifying excessively high parameter contributions based on a dynamically estimated threshold. This mechanism promotes the classifier to rely on a broader set of parameters for decision-making, thereby reducing the risk of overconfident predictions caused by anomalously triggered parameters, while preserving in-distribution (ID) performance. Extensive experiments under various OOD detection setups verify the effectiveness of SPCP.

Credit risk scoring must support high-stakes lending decisions where data distributions change over time, probability estimates must be reliable, and group-level fairness is required. While modern machine learning models improve default prediction accuracy, they often produce poorly calibrated scores under distribution shift and may create unfair outcomes when trained without explicit constraints. This paper proposes Calibrated Credit Intelligence (CCI), a deployment-oriented framework that combines (i) a Bayesian neural risk scorer to capture epistemic uncertainty and reduce overconfident errors, (ii) a fairnessconstrained gradient boosting model to control group disparities while preserving strong tabular performance, and (iii) a shiftaware fusion strategy followed by post-hoc probability calibration to stabilize decision thresholds in later time periods. We evaluate CCI on the Home Credit Credit Risk Model Stability benchmark using a time-consistent split to reflect real-world drift. Compared with strong baselines (LightGBM, XGBoost, CatBoost, TabNet, and a standalone Bayesian neural model), CCI achieves the best overall trade-off between discrimination, calibration, stability, and fairness. In particular, CCI reaches an AUC-ROC of 0.912 and an AUC-PR of 0.438, improves operational performance with Recall@1%FPR = 0.509, and reduces calibration error (Brier score 0.087, ECE 0.015). Under temporal shift, CCI shows a smaller AUC-PR drop from early to late periods (0.017), and it lowers group disparities (demographic parity gap 0.046, equal opportunity gap 0.037) compared to unconstrained boosting. These results indicate that CCI produces risk scores that are accurate, reliable, and more equitable under realistic deployment conditions.

Deep vision classifiers often achieve high accuracy while remaining poorly calibrated and fragile under small distribution shifts. We present Margin and Consistency Supervision (MaCS), a simple, architecture-agnostic regularization framework that jointly enforces logit-space separation and local prediction stability. MaCS augments cross-entropy with (i) a hinge-squared margin penalty that enforces a target logit gap between the correct class and the strongest competitor, and (ii) a consistency regularizer that minimizes the KL divergence between predictions on clean inputs and mildly perturbed views. We provide a unifying theoretical analysis showing that increasing classification margin while reducing local sensitivity formalized via a Lipschitz-type stability proxy yields improved generalization guarantees and a provable robustness radius bound scaling with the margin-to-sensitivity ratio. Across several image classification benchmarks and several backbones spanning CNNs and Vision Transformers, MaCS consistently improves calibration (lower ECE and NLL) and robustness to common corruptions while preserving or improving top-1 accuracy. Our approach requires no additional data, no architectural changes, and negligible inference overhead, making it an effective drop-in replacement for standard training objectives.

Integrative analysis of multiple datasets for estimating optimal individualized treatment rules (ITRs) can enhance decision efficiency. A central challenge is posterior shift, wherein the conditional distribution of potential outcomes given covariates differs between source and target populations. We propose a prior information-based distributionally robust ITR (PDRO-ITR) that maximizes the worst-case policy value over a covariate-dependent distributional uncertainty set, ensuring robust performance under posterior shift. The uncertainty set is constructed as an individualized combination of source distributions, with weights combining prior source-membership probabilities and deviation terms constrained to the probability simplex to accommodate posterior shift. We derive a closed-form solution for the PDRO-ITR and develop an adaptive procedure to tune the uncertainty level. We establish risk bounds for the PDRO-ITR estimator, which guarantees robust performance under the worst case. Extensive simulations and two real-data applications demonstrate that the proposed method achieves superior performance compared to existing approaches.

Model Merging (MM) has emerged as a scalable paradigm for multi-task learning (MTL), enabling multiple task-specific models to be integrated without revisiting the original training data. Despite recent progress, the reliability of MM under test-time distribution shift remains insufficiently understood. Most existing MM methods typically assume that test data are clean and distributionally aligned with both the training and auxiliary sources. However, this assumption rarely holds in practice, often resulting in biased predictions with degraded generalization. To address this issue, we present BD-Merging, a bias-aware unsupervised model merging framework that explicitly models uncertainty to achieve adaptive reliability under distribution shift. First, BD-Merging introduces a joint evidential head that learns uncertainty over a unified label space, capturing cross-task semantic dependencies in MM. Second, building upon this evidential foundation, we propose an Adjacency Discrepancy Score (ADS) that quantifies evidential alignment among neighboring samples. Third, guided by ADS, a discrepancy-aware contrastive learning mechanism refines the merged representation by aligning consistent samples and separating conflicting ones. Combined with general unsupervised learning, this process trains a debiased router that adaptively allocates task-specific or layer-specific weights on a per-sample basis, effectively mitigating the adverse effects of distribution shift. Extensive experiments across diverse tasks demonstrate that BD-Merging achieves superior effectiveness and robustness compared to state-of-the-art MM baselines.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved remarkable performance in many tasks, yet they often behave as opaque black boxes. Explanation-guided learning (EGL) methods steer DNNs using human-provided explanations or supervision on model attributions. These approaches improve interpretability but typically assume benign inputs and incur heavy annotation costs. In contrast, both predictions and saliency maps of DNNs could dramatically alter facing imperceptible perturbations or unseen patterns. Adversarial training (AT) can substantially improve robustness, but it does not guarantee that model decisions rely on semantically meaningful features. In response, we propose Explanation-Guided Adversarial Training (EGAT), a unified framework that integrates the strength of AT and EGL to simultaneously improve prediction performance, robustness, and explanation quality. EGAT generates adversarial examples on the fly while imposing explanation-based constraints on the model. By jointly optimizing classification performance, adversarial robustness, and attributional stability, EGAT is not only more resistant to unexpected cases, including adversarial attacks and out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios, but also offer human-interpretable justifications for the decisions. We further formalize EGAT within the Probably Approximately Correct learning framework, demonstrating theoretically that it yields more stable predictions under unexpected situations compared to standard AT. Empirical evaluations on OOD benchmark datasets show that EGAT consistently outperforms competitive baselines in both clean accuracy and adversarial accuracy +37% while producing more semantically meaningful explanations, and requiring only a limited increase +16% in training time.

The widespread adoption of AI in industry is often hampered by its limited robustness when faced with scenarios absent from training data, leading to prediction bias and vulnerabilities. To address this, we propose a novel streaming inference pipeline that enhances data-driven models by explicitly incorporating prior knowledge. This paper presents the work on an industrial AI application that automatically counts excavator workloads from surveillance videos. Our approach integrates an object detection model with a Finite State Machine (FSM), which encodes knowledge of operational scenarios to guide and correct the AI's predictions on streaming data. In experiments on a real-world dataset of over 7,000 images from 12 site videos, encompassing more than 300 excavator workloads, our method demonstrates superior performance and greater robustness compared to the original solution based on manual heuristic rules. We will release the code at https://github.com/thulab/video-streamling-inference-pipeline.

This paper develops a theory of graph classification under domain shift through a random-graph generative lens, where we consider intra-class graphs sharing the same random graph model (RGM) and the domain shift induced by changes in RGM components. While classic domain adaptation (DA) theories have well-underpinned existing techniques to handle graph distribution shift, the information of graph samples, which are itself structured objects, is less explored. The non-Euclidean nature of graphs and specialized architectures for graph learning further complicate a fine-grained analysis of graph distribution shifts. In this paper, we propose a theory that assumes RGM as the data generative process, exploiting its connection to hypothesis complexity in function space perspective for such fine-grained analysis. Building on a vector-valued reproducing kernel Hilbert space (vRKHS) formulation, we derive a generalization bound whose shift penalty admits a factorization into (i) a domain discrepancy term, (ii) a spectral-geometry term summarized by the accessible truncated spectrum, and (iii) an amplitude term that aggregates convergence and construction-stability effects. We empirically verify the insights on these terms in both real data and simulations.

In-context learning (ICL) allows large language models to adapt to new tasks from a few examples without updating their parameters. Existing theories explain ICL by assuming the test task distribution matches pretraining -- an assumption that breaks down under adversarial distribution shifts. We introduce a distributionally robust meta-learning framework that provides worst-case guarantees for ICL under Wasserstein-based distribution shifts. Focusing on linear self-attention Transformers, we derive a non-asymptotic bound connecting adversarial perturbation strength ($ρ$), model capacity ($m$), and the number of in-context examples ($N$). The analysis reveals that the maximum safe perturbation radius scales as $ρ_{\max} \propto \sqrt{m}$, while maintaining performance under adversarial shift requires additional in-context examples with $N_ρ- N_0 \propto ρ^2$. Experiments on synthetic tasks confirm these scaling laws, and experiments on 21 real pretrained models (0.1B--7B parameters, 5 families) provide qualitative evidence consistent with the theory's predictions, while revealing that ICL capability is a prerequisite for robustness. These findings advance the theoretical understanding of ICL under adversarial conditions and formalize the sense in which larger models are safer under distributional shift.

Automated feature engineering (AFE) enables AI systems to autonomously construct high-utility representations from raw tabular data. However, existing AFE methods rely on statistical heuristics, yielding brittle features that fail under distribution shift. We introduce CAFE, a framework that reformulates AFE as a causally-guided sequential decision process, bridging causal discovery with reinforcement learning-driven feature construction. Phase I learns a sparse directed acyclic graph over features and the target to obtain soft causal priors, grouping features as direct, indirect, or other based on their causal influence with respect to the target. Phase II uses a cascading multi-agent deep Q-learning architecture to select causal groups and transformation operators, with hierarchical reward shaping and causal group-level exploration strategies that favor causally plausible transformations while controlling feature complexity. Across 15 public benchmarks (classification with macro-F1; regression with inverse relative absolute error), CAFE achieves statistically significant gains over the strongest AFE baseline (Wilcoxon p<0.001, large effect), reduces episodes-to-convergence, and delivers competitive time-to-target. Under both controlled covariate shifts and naturally occurring distribution shifts (Folktables), CAFE reduces out-of-distribution performance drop by up to 4x relative to a non-causal multi-agent baseline, and produces more compact feature sets with more stable post-hoc attributions. These findings underscore that causal structure, used as a soft inductive prior rather than a rigid constraint, can substantially improve the robustness and efficiency of automated feature engineering.

Conformal prediction (CP) offers distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees under an exchangeability assumption, but these guarantees can fail if the data distribution shifts. We analyze the use of pseudo-calibration as a tool to counter this performance loss under a bounded label-conditional covariate shift model. Using tools from domain adaptation, we derive a lower bound on target coverage in terms of the source-domain loss of the classifier and a Wasserstein measure of the shift. Using this result, we provide a method to design pseudo-calibrated sets that inflate the conformal threshold by a slack parameter to keep target coverage above a prescribed level. Finally, we propose a source-tuned pseudo-calibration algorithm that interpolates between hard pseudo-labels and randomized labels as a function of classifier uncertainty. Numerical experiments show that our bounds qualitatively track pseudo-calibration behavior and that the source-tuned scheme mitigates coverage degradation under distribution shift while maintaining nontrivial prediction set sizes.

Deep learning models trained to optimize average accuracy often exhibit systematic failures on particular subpopulations. In real-world settings like healthcare, the subpopulations most affected by such disparities are frequently unlabeled, partially observed, or not known in advance. Existing group-robust methods typically assume prior knowledge of the relevant subgroups, using group annotations for training, validation, or model selection. We propose Misclassification Aware Rank-Limited Adaptation (MARLA), a parameter-efficient method for improving worst group performance without explicit subgroup annotations. MARLA leverages an ERM-trained model by calculating the model's misclassification probability scores on a held-out adaptation set to identify a low-dimensional subspace where errors concentrate. We then learn a rank-restricted additive correction to the classifier logits within that subspace. Across seven real-world datasets, we evaluate group robustness under three settings: no knowledge of subgroup relevance, partial knowledge of subgroup relevance, and full knowledge of subgroup relevance. MARLA improves worst-group performance while remaining fast and parameter-efficient, with data-guided hyperparameter selection.