Distributionally-Robust Optimization

Schrödinger bridge (SB) learns stochastic transport between prescribed initial and target distributions. When the initial distribution shifts at test time, the learned dynamics can fail to recover the target distribution. We introduce the Distributionally Robust Schrödinger Bridge (DRSB), which learns a single controller that accounts for uncertainty in the initial distribution. The DRSB objective consists of control energy and a KL penalty between the resulting terminal distribution and the target distribution. DRSB seeks a single controller that minimizes the worst-case value of this objective as the initial distribution varies within an ambiguity set around the nominal distribution. We derive an exact variational formulation of this objective and connect its fixed-terminal-cost subproblem to stochastic optimal control and distributionally robust optimization. This formulation motivates an alternating algorithm that updates the adversarial initial distribution, estimates the terminal log-density ratio, and trains the controller. We develop Wasserstein and Sinkhorn variants using stochastic control optimality conditions to approximate the gradients required for adversarial updates. Experiments on two-dimensional transport tasks and image-to-image translation show improved robustness to input perturbations relative to standard SB, with a tradeoff in nominal performance. On Gaussian mixture transport, Sinkhorn DRSB also achieves lower mean sliced Wasserstein distance than fixed-level noise augmentation at both tested unseen noise levels.

Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) studies parameter estimation under uncertainty in the underlying probability distribution and has emerged as a principled framework for analyzing robustness and generalization. In particular, Wasserstein DRO, with distributional uncertainty induced by the Wasserstein distance, generalizes several popular regularizers. This paper studies Wasserstein DRO linear regression, unifying square-root Lasso and adversarial linear regression as important special cases. We prove that many properties of these two special cases carry over to this general method. In particular, we show (i) deterministic and non-asymptotic in-sample error bounds $O(n^{-1/2})$ in general and $O(n^{-1})$ under design matrix and sparsity conditions; (ii) insensitivity to the noise level, also known as the pivotal property; and (iii) solution equivalences for small and large ambiguity sets. The key proof step is to recast the method into a quadratic form, mimicking adversarial linear regression. We also show that the method can be solved efficiently, and we validate our findings through numerical simulations.

We propose a distributionally robust learning framework where parameters defining the robustness mechanism are learned from held-out data instead of extensively tuned. Using bilevel optimization with both upper and lower level minimax problems, we create two instances of our framework to tackle setups with and without group labels in the training set. Theoretically, we provide sample complexity analysis for our robustness mechanism learning paradigm, showing that it achieves generalization guarantees comparable to exhaustive grid search while being more computationally efficient. Empirically, we evaluate our framework under a challenging setup when both intra-group and inter-group test distribution shifts occur at the same time, thereby demonstrating the efficacy and scalability of our method.

Federated learning trains a shared model from private client data. In practice, data-generating distributions may differ, and the true mixture across clients is often unknown, making the underlying group distribution difficult to specify. Existing approaches address cross-client mixture uncertainty by optimizing against the worst-case mixture, yet assume accurate client-wise distribution estimates. However, these estimates can be unreliable when based on finite samples. To handle both cross-client mixture uncertainty and within-client distributional ambiguity, we construct a global ambiguity set as the union of admissible mixtures of local ambiguity sets. The construction allows client-specific ambiguity radii and admits a client-wise separable reformulation. Leveraging this structure, we establish a high-probability out-of-sample performance guarantee. We further develop a federated algorithm for a penalty-based reformulation and prove its convergence under milder regularity conditions. Simulations validate the algorithm's effectiveness.

In this paper, we investigate the generalization performance of distributed gradient descent algorithms in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space under a robust loss function $l_σ$. By exploiting the spectral characterization of gradient descent together with the intrinsic properties of robust loss functions, we establish optimal learning rates for the distributed kernel-based robust gradient descent (DKRGD) algorithm with an appropriately chosen scale parameter $σ$. The proposed parameter choice of $σ$ simultaneously alleviates the saturation phenomenon and guarantees statistical robustness. A key technical contribution is a novel error analysis that provides substantially sharper bounds for products of operators, thereby significantly relaxing existing restrictions on the maximum number of local machines while retaining optimal learning rates. Finally, we develop a communication-efficient strategy that further improves the convergence performance of DKRGD.

Directly robustifying small-signal stability in AC optimal power flow is challenging since the stability boundary in the original uncertainty space is implicit, highly nonconvex, and changes with the operating decision. This paper exploits an alternative geometry. For a fixed model-specific stability certificate admitting suitable physical lifts, the small-signal stability requirement becomes an affine positive semidefinite constraint in the lifted variables, thereby defining a convex certified safe region. Instead of approximating the nonlinear instability boundary itself, we optimize a sample-wise safe radius in the original uncertainty space and certify, in the lifted space, that the entire power-flow image of the corresponding uncertainty ball is contained in the convex stability region. To this end, a componentwise Perron certificate guarantees existence, uniqueness, and Jacobian regularity of the target AC power-flow branch throughout each ball. An adjoint elimination then provides an exact affine-quadratic representation of the stability-relevant quantities, while rigorous matrix remainder bounds convert their nonlinear variation into finite robust PSD constraints. The resulting radii are certified lower bounds on the distances from empirical samples to failure and can therefore be coupled directly to the distance-based reformulation of a Wasserstein distributionally robust chance constraint, without directly approximating the instability boundary. Numerical studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

Uncertainty quantification from finite data is central to machine learning, optimization, and automation systems, where decisions must remain reliable under limited samples and test-time distribution shift. Conformal prediction (CP) and distributionally robust optimization (DRO) offer two complementary approaches: CP constructs data-dependent prediction sets with distribution-free finite-sample validity under exchangeability, while DRO optimizes worst-case performance over an ambiguity set around an empirical distribution. We develop a unified probabilistic perspective on CP and DRO by viewing both as ways to turn finite calibration data into a data-dependent quantile estimator that a test score falls below with high probability. From this perspective, CP and DRO correct the empirical quantile along two coordinates of the same family of estimators: CP inflates the quantile level, whereas DRO shifts the quantile value through an ambiguity radius. Both methods provide the same calibration-conditional guarantee for the true distribution, requiring the target coverage to hold with high probability over the calibration sample. Their constructions differ, however: CP uses a closed-form, distribution-free level correction, while DRO uses a value-space correction whose certified radius depends on properties of the unknown distribution and additionally guarantees coverage uniformly over the ambiguity set. This distinction emerges in the tails of the score distribution. Because CP relies on sparse upper-tail order statistics of the calibration samples, its level inflation barely moves the estimator when those samples are dense near the target quantile but overshoots when they are sparse, whereas a well-chosen DRO radius corrects in value space and may avoid this overshoot.

Distributional shifts arise when the target deployment environment differs from the source environment that generated the training data. Robust learning frameworks such as Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) and Robust Satisficing (RS) aim to address this challenge, yet their finite-sample guarantees under such shifts, and their systematic comparison, remain underexplored: existing analyses typically establish guarantees either in the source environment or for adversarial worst-case performance over an ambiguity set. This paper instead studies generalization error in the target environment---the excess loss under the shifted target distribution. Our contributions are threefold. First, we derive finite-sample generalization error bounds in the shifted target environment for both DRO and RS. These bounds explicitly characterize the trade-off between reduced sensitivity to shift and the regularization penalty induced by each method's robustness hyperparameter, and they avoid the curse of dimensionality associated with Wasserstein empirical concentration. Second, when partial shift information such as shift magnitude or direction is available, we propose information-directed hyperparameter calibrations and compare the two methods given the same information. Under these calibrations, and in the partial-information regimes we study, DRO and RS exhibit complementary theoretical and empirical behavior. Finally, we apply the framework to a network lot-sizing problem, using it to interpret how robust policies respond to positive shifts in the demand distribution. Together, these results fill a gap in understanding the statistical properties of robust learning methods under distributional shifts and provide a principled basis for comparing DRO and RS.

Conformal changepoint localization turns any score into a confidence set for the changepoint with finite-sample coverage. Coverage is universal; efficiency is not. The oracle score is a likelihood ratio, so practical scores estimate density ratios, and set length deteriorates under heavy tails, skewness, and distribution shift, where no length guarantee applies. We propose ARC (Augmented-Rank Conformalization), a family of scores depending on the data only through within-segment ranks: rank-CUSUM location and scale channels, their fixed combinations, and a lightweight neural score frozen after synthetic training. Every ARC score inherits finite-sample coverage for every frozen weight configuration, including random initialization and mistraining. The main result is an efficiency transfer theorem: the entire ARC confidence set is almost surely invariant under strictly increasing marginal transforms, so the set length distribution depends on the data pair only through its rank structure, and lengths certified once hold verbatim across its monotone orbit, whereas a plug-in score's length changes with every re-expression. Across different rank structures lengths do change, and are reported as such. Classical rank-test theory positions ARC as targeting the optimal invariant score at bounded cost. Simulations confirm nominal coverage for all scores, including sabotaged networks, identical sets under monotone transforms where plug-in scores inflate, and smooth degradation where plug-in sets become vacuous; on the well-log benchmark ARC localizes annotated shifts to three to five candidates and flags misfit by an empty set. Two boundaries are stated rather than hidden: serial dependence destroys exactness, and trend-type alternatives lie outside the piecewise-exchangeable model.

We study distributionally robust PAC learning for the $0$--$1$-loss, where adversarial perturbations of the data distribution are constrained by a Cressie--Read divergence of order $k>1$ and radius $ρ\geq 0$. For hypothesis classes with VC dimension $d$, we establish realizable and agnostic sample-complexity bounds tight up to constant and logarithmic factors, respectively; ordinary empirical risk minimization attains both rates up to logarithmic factors. For target accuracy $\varepsilon\in(0,1)$ and confidence $δ\in(0,1)$, their respective orders are $$\max\!\left\{\frac{1}{\varepsilon}, \frac{ρ^{\frac 1{k-1}}}{\varepsilon^{k_\star}} \right\}\cdot(d+\log δ^{-1}) \qquad\text{and}\qquad \max\!\left\{\frac{1}{\varepsilon^2}, \frac{ρ^{\frac1{k-1}}}{\varepsilon^{k_\star\vee 2}} \right\}\cdot(d+\log δ^{-1}),$$ where $k_\star={k}/{(k-1)}$. For every fixed $ρ>0$, robustness changes the realizable $\varepsilon$-dependence from $\varepsilon^{-1}$ to $\varepsilon^{-k_\star}$ as $\varepsilon\downarrow0$. In the agnostic case, for $1<k<2$, robustness changes the $\varepsilon$-dependence from $\varepsilon^{-2}$ to $\varepsilon^{-k_\star}$, whereas for $k\geq2$ the exponent remains the classical $2$, with nontrivial $ρ$-dependence. Building on the known scalar reduction of robust $0$--$1$ risk to ordinary classification error, our analysis reveals a scale-sensitive interaction between the statistical estimation of classification error and its amplification by robustness, sharply explaining the transition in the agnostic rate. We extend the previously studied $χ^2$-divergence case to every Cressie--Read order $k>1$, close its upper--lower gaps, and recover standard PAC learning rates as $ρ\to0$, unlike previous bounds that fail to interpolate correctly in this limit.

We derive finite-sample generalization bounds for Transformers trained with dynamic programming recursions. Building on the doubly lifted, measure-valued formulation of Transformer dynamics, we view data sets as probability laws on pairs of empirical input-output measures, allowing us to interpret the training problem as a finite-horizon Markovian control problem. We then analyze a quantized model, derived by quantizing the state, action, and measure-state spaces, and derive explicit finite-sample generalization bounds using concentration inequalities for empirical laws on finite metric spaces together with a Lipschitz stability estimate for the value function. These bounds are transferred to the base model at the cost of an explicit approximation error. Finally, we show that the same machinery yields a distributionally robust control formulation of the training problem, connecting Transformer generalization to Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization.

Local differential privacy (LDP) protocols are vulnerable to poisoning attacks. Existing research have proposed efficient defense strategies for single-item users. However, in practice, a user may possess multiple items. The defense against poisoning attacks for multi-item users is challenging, because due to larger output spaces, the adversary can conduct more powerful attacks without being detected. In this paper, we address the robust sparse vector mean estimation problem, in which each user has a vector with $m$ nonzero coordinates. We propose Randomized Projection with Clipping (RPC). Firstly, the server sends a random binary vector to each user. The user then projects its local data on the vector, and clip the value to restrict the attacker's capability. To handle clipping bias, we propose a correction method based on a careful analysis that gives an exact expression of the bias. As a result, bias-variance tradeoff is no longer needed, thus the clipping threshold can be further reduced to shrink the output space and enhance robustness. We provide a rigorous theoretical guarantee of the estimation error under all possible attacks. Numerical experiments show that under trusted environments, our new method achieves comparable or better performance than existing methods, indicating that our method is already an efficient estimator in its own right. Under untrusted environments, our method is also significantly more robust to poisoning attacks.

Generative models are increasingly adopted in distributionally robust optimization (DRO), but existing approaches trade off model compatibility and adversarial structure: methods that accept arbitrary samplers do not restrict worst-case laws to a generator family, while generator-parameterized adversaries rely on model-specific access such as likelihoods, scores, or training data. We propose Generative Distributionally Robust Optimization (GDRO), a principled framework that accepts any sampleable conditional generator as the nominal model and restricts worst-case laws to a chosen conditional generator family. The key is the sampler-Sinkhorn pairing: samplers represent the conditional laws exactly, while Sinkhorn divergence compares their induced distributions without likelihood access and can be estimated from samples alone. The resulting population problem admits a direct finite-sample approximation and differentiable primal-dual implementation at the active decision context. For Lipschitz losses, the population Sinkhorn radius bounds downstream degradation. Across explicit and implicit generators, our method reduces rare-context inventory regret by 60% and SocialGAN navigation collisions by 50% relative to nominal decisions.

We study distributionally robust linear chance-constrained problems in which uncertainty is modeled by a Gaussian mixture model (GMM). Finite-support distributionally robust (FDR) formulations, widely used in data-driven robust optimization, robustify over empirical mixture support points and therefore primarily stress-test the fitted nominal mixture. This can be insufficient when service reliability depends on structural misspecification of the nominal mixture-support parameters. To address this limitation, we describe the ambiguity set of distributions by developing a novel formulation of a Wasserstein-2 metric that uses the Bures-Wasserstein (BW) metric over probability measures with finite second moments. Unlike FDR, which generally sets finitely many empirical support points a priori, the proposed ambiguity set allows the worst-case distribution to endogenously determine both how many mixture components receive mass and where their means and covariances lie within a continuous support. For the resulting ambiguity set, under mild regularity conditions, we prove strong duality for the inner worst-case chance-constraint problem and derive its semi-infinite reformulation. We then develop an adaptive cutting-surface algorithm, which endogenously determines the locations of mixture components receiving mass, and the mean and covariances of the Gaussian distributions at these locations. The algorithm attains any prescribed optimality gap in finitely many iterations, while a block-alternating local search identifies new components. A case study using the electric-vehicle charging-station energy-allocation problem demonstrates the framework's practical value in achieving any reliability targets. CDR also induces structural changes in energy allocations, unlike FDR, whose allocations remain close to the nominal solution.

Covariance steering provides an efficient framework for designing linear stochastic feedback policies, but its extension to nonlinear systems relies on a Gaussian surrogate obtained through local linearization. Because this surrogate may differ substantially from the true nonlinear state distribution, risk-sensitive quantities such as collision probability and mean-squared error may be inaccurately estimated. This work develops a distributionally robust covariance-steering framework based on the relative entropy, also known as the Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD), to account for ambiguity in the propagated probability density function. Using a variational representation of exponential integrals, we derive computable upper bounds on risk-sensitive quantities over a KLD ambiguity set. We then formulate an upper bound on the time rate of change of the KLD between the true nonlinear distribution and a Gaussian reference surrogate. Under some assumptions, this bound is controlled by decision variables within a covariance-steering formulation. The resulting constraints are incorporated into a sequential convex programming algorithm to design stochastic guidance policies that keep the true distribution close to its Gaussian surrogate while enforcing bounds on risk-sensitive performance measures. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a challenging nonlinear spacecraft transfer between two near-rectilinear halo orbits.

Predict-then-optimize systems usually compress uncertainty into a point forecast and then solve a downstream optimization problem as if the forecast were reliable. Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) offers protection against misspecification, but the ambiguity set is often centered at historical samples and uses a fixed radius. We propose \emph{learned predictive ambiguity sets} (LPAS): a deep contextual model outputs a finite nominal scenario distribution, a state-dependent Wasserstein radius, and optionally an anisotropic ground metric. These outputs define a contextual ambiguity set that feeds a DRO decision layer. The radius is trained by a combination of conditional quantile calibration, size regularization, and downstream decision loss, so that robustness is adaptive rather than globally fixed. We derive the finite dual form used by the decision layer, present a staged training algorithm, and evaluate the method on distributionally robust portfolio optimization with 20 S&P 500 constituents from 2018--2026. The proposed method substantially improves over equal-weight, predict-then-optimize, and historical Wasserstein DRO baselines, achieving 26.28% annualized return, Sharpe ratio 1.30, final wealth 1.61, and lower tail loss than a deep fixed-radius DRO baseline while using a smaller average radius. The results show that learned ambiguity radii can recover most of the performance of strong fixed-radius DRO while reducing unnecessary conservatism and improving regime adaptivity.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) can model complex joint distributions while supporting exact and efficient computation of many inference queries. However, standard likelihood-based PC learning is vulnerable to overfitting and fragile generalization when confronted with data noise, small sample sizes, or distribution shifts. This can be mitigated using distributionally-robust optimization which consider worst-case distributions within a Wasserstein ball of the empirical distribution, but current methods are limited to training a model from scratch in this framework. Instead, we propose PeTeR: a novel, data-free post-training framework designed to robustify pre-trained PCs against distribution shifts without retraining from scratch. Empirical evaluations across multiple density estimation benchmarks demonstrate that PeTeR effectively robustifies baseline models against both random and adversarial perturbations, achieving competitive or superior performance to data-dependent robust learning baselines.

Performance evaluation in AI systems commonly assumes that random dataset splits produce independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) subsets. We show that this assumption often breaks down in spatiotemporally correlated domains such as aerial surveillance, precision agriculture, and medical imaging, leading to two systematic failures: data leakage, where correlated samples span training and validation splits and inflate performance estimates, and hidden stratification, where errors on minority subpopulations are obscured by aggregate metrics. To address these issues, we propose a unified evaluation and training framework for spatially correlated data. We introduce Structure-Aware Stratified Partitioning (SASP), which constructs validation splits that reduce spatiotemporal leakage while preserving meaningful class balance, and Curriculum Distributionally Robust Optimization (CDRO), a curriculum-based relaxation of distributionally robust training that stabilizes optimization under these stricter splits. Across multiple benchmarks, this combination yields consistently improved generalization, more reliable confidence calibration, and exposes failure modes that remain hidden under conventional random-split evaluation.

We present an algorithm for the group distributionally robust (GDR) least squares problem. Given $m$ groups, a parameter vector in $\mathbb{R}^d$, and stacked design matrices and responses $\mathbf{A}$ and $\mathbf{b}$, our algorithm obtains a $(1+\varepsilon)$-multiplicative optimal solution using $\widetilde{O}(\min\{\mathsf{rank}(\mathbf{A}),m\}^{1/3}\varepsilon^{-2/3})$ linear-system-solves of matrices of the form $\mathbf{A}^{\top}\mathbf{B}\mathbf{A}$ for block-diagonal $\mathbf{B}$. Our technical methods follow from a recent geometric construction, block Lewis weights, that relates the empirical GDR problem to a carefully chosen least squares problem and an application of accelerated proximal methods. Our algorithm improves over known interior point methods for moderate accuracy regimes and matches the state-of-the-art guarantees for the special case of $\ell_{\infty}$ regression. We also give algorithms that smoothly interpolate between minimizing the average least squares loss and the distributionally robust loss.

This paper presents a distribution-agnostic robust trajectory-optimization framework based on chance-constrained reinforcement learning. The uncertainty is represented here through initial conditions and process noise, with the only requirement being that it can be sampled. A deterministic nominal trajectory is first computed offline, and reinforcement learning is then used only to robustify that baseline through a structured affine closed-loop correction law comprising a feedforward control adjustment and time-varying feedback gains. Probabilistic feasibility is enforced empirically through rollout-based upper-tail quantiles, while terminal dispersion is regulated through covariance-feasibility penalties. The framework is assessed on two materially different trajectory design problems. The flagship case study is a three-dimensional multi-impulse Earth-Mars transfer, where the learned policy is benchmarked against a recent robust trajectory-optimization reference under Gaussian uncertainty and then evaluated under bounded uniform uncertainty and under process disturbances not seen during training. The second case study is a stochastic atmospheric pinpoint rocket landing problem, used to assess portability to a short-horizon continuous-thrust setting with drag, mass depletion, and glide-slope constraints. The results show that the proposed framework can remain competitive in upper-tail fuel cost while preserving probabilistic feasibility, and that the same robustification scaffold can be carried across heterogeneous spacecraft trajectory planning problems without redesign of its core stochastic-control structure.

We develop a new, differentially private mean estimator called the balloon mean. The main features of the balloon mean are that it is computationally tractable and enjoys robustness to outlying observations. It is based on an iterative clipping procedure over expanding Mahalanobis balls, or ``balloons.'' The method satisfies zero-concentrated differential privacy and depends on a small number of interpretable tuning parameters. We provide theoretical guarantees under heavy-tailed and contaminated elliptical models, characterizing its statistical performance and robustness to outliers. Extensive simulations demonstrate that the balloon mean is robust to heavy-tailed and contaminated data, and outperforms existing differentially private mean estimators in contaminated settings.

A small Wasserstein distance does not certify that a transformation is admissible. In evidence-constrained, semantic, causal, physical, monotone, or risk-sensitive learning, one must ask not only how far two probability laws are, but whether mass has moved in a direction allowed by available information. We introduce conditional random ordered transport spaces (CROTS), a class of $L^0$-valued spaces of random probability measures equipped with a Wasserstein ambient metric, a closed stochastic order, hard and soft ordered transport discrepancies, and a conditional risk functional for evaluating order violation under an evidence sigma-field. The central object is an order-admissible transport geometry for random measure-valued dynamics, distinct from cone-valued metrics, ordered Kantorovich constructions, random Wasserstein spaces alone, and model-specific residuals for generative paths. We develop the foundations of CROTS as a space theory for reliable distributional learning. The results include well-posedness and duality for hard and soft ordered transport, soft-to-hard variational convergence, measurability and completeness of the random lifted space, reductions to classical Wasserstein and ordered geometries, ordered geodesics, constrained barycenters and projections, conditional risk-transport duality, and separation of order-violating distributions. The main stability theorem shows that random learning dynamics may converge in the ambient Wasserstein metric while its local admissibility leakage follows a separate conditional order-risk recursion. The resulting asymptotic order-risk floor provides a mathematical language for evidence overreach, ordered distribution shift, robustness failure, and admissible distributional dynamics.

We present improved bounds for estimating discrete probability distributions under the $\ell_\infty$ norm. These include minimax bounds in expectation and high-probability tail bounds. We resolve some of the open questions posed in Kontorovich and Painsky (JMLR, 2025) -- including a fully empirical version of the tightest risk bound they presented and identifying the form of the worst-case extremal distribution. Encouraging empirical results are reported as well.

Standard Set Representation Learning methods typically excel on curated data but often overlook the challenge of inference-time element corruption. This refers to scenarios where deployed models encounter element-level degradations, such as outliers or missing components, that may distort set representation and degrade performance. We propose SW-DRSO, a distributionally robust optimization framework tailored for sets. Rather than minimizing loss solely on observed training data, SW-DRSO optimizes a tractable surrogate of the worst-case expected loss over a family of plausible inference-time variations. We introduce a barycentric adversary that approximates the intractable search over corrupted sets by a differentiable training-time optimization over simplex weights. Extensive experiments across four tasks demonstrate that SW-DRSO effectively enhances robustness against corruption while maintaining high overall performance.

Simulation-based inference with neural posterior estimation (NPE) often yields overconfident and unreliable posteriors under limited simulation budgets. To address this, we propose DRO-NPE, a distributionally robust approach that replaces the standard NPE objective with a worst-case loss over a Wasserstein ambiguity set. We introduce KL-based metrics for miscoverage and miscalibration, and use these to show that the DRO-NPE objective controls overfitting and reduces posterior overconfidence. Our method is tractable, parallelisable, and readily integrates with standard normalising flows. Across benchmark SBI tasks, DRO-NPE consistently improves coverage and calibration, while narrowing the gap between empirical and population NPE loss, leading to more reliable inference in low-simulation regimes.

This paper proposes a computationally efficient mechanism for multi-dimensional matching markets where agents report preferences over object features rather than complete utility assessments. We use Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) to identify the principal direction of variation in feature space and match agents to objects along this dimension, reducing a complex multi-dimensional problem to an effectively one-dimensional problem solvable in $O(N \log N)$ time. We show that when data exhibit low effective dimensionality, our mechanism approximately maximizes Nash Social Welfare, satisfies distributional truthfulness, and achieves symmetry. We establish a novel connection between Nash Social Welfare and Geometric Distributionally Robust Optimization, providing robustness guaranties. Numerical experiments demonstrate that our approach achieves 99% optimal welfare while running three orders of magnitude faster than direct optimization. The framework applies naturally to school choice, labor markets, and course allocation, where feature-based elicitation reduces the cognitive burden on agents.

We revisit Byzantine robust distributed estimation for high-dimensional sparse linear models. By combining local $\ell_1$-regularized robust estimation with robust aggregation at the server, the framework applies to pseudo-Huber regression, quantile regression, and sparse SVM. We show that the resulting estimators yield non-asymptotic guarantees and attain near-optimal statistical rates under mild conditions, while remaining communication-efficient. Simulations confirm strong robustness in estimation, support recovery and classification accuracy under various Byzantine attacks.

We study Bayesian Optimisation (BO) in settings where the objective function is influenced by uncontrollable environmental contexts governed by an unknown probability distribution. In practice, the contextual distribution must be estimated from empirical data, a process that inherently introduces distributional mismatch, producing sub-optimal results. While Distributionally Robust Optimisation (DRO) provides a framework to mitigate these risks, existing robust BO methods frequently suffer from high computational complexity, rely on discretisation of continuous context spaces, or impose restrictive assumptions on the structure of the ambiguity set. To overcome these limitations, we propose Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation (EDRBO). Our framework leverages the expressive power of ensemble surrogate models to approximate the black-box function while simultaneously accounting for contextual uncertainty. By utilising Wasserstein ball as ambiguity sets, EDRBO provides a robustified acquisition function that remains computationally tractable and natively handles continuous context spaces. We establish a rigorous theoretical foundation for our approach by proving sublinear cumulative regret guarantees of order $\mathcal{O}(γ_T \sqrt{T})$, where $γ_T$ represents the maximum information gain within the ensemble. Finally, we provide extensive empirical evaluations that corroborate our theory and demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of EDRBO.

We propose a distributionally robust approach to learning hyperparameters for first-order methods in convex optimization. Given a dataset of problem instances, we minimize a Wasserstein distributionally robust version of the performance estimation problem (PEP) over algorithm parameters such as step sizes. Our framework unifies two extremes: as the robustness radius vanishes, we recover classical learning to optimize (L2O); as it grows, we recover worst-case optimal algorithm design via PEP. We solve the resulting problem with stochastic gradient descent, differentiating through the solution of an inner semidefinite program at each step. We prove high-probability bounds showing that the true risk of the learned algorithm is at most the in-sample L2O optimum plus a slack that shrinks with the sample size, and is no worse than the worst-case PEP bound. On unconstrained quadratic minimization, LASSO, and linear programming benchmarks, our learned algorithms achieve strong out-of-sample performance with certifiable robustness, outperforming both worst-case optimal and vanilla L2O baselines.

Multi-objective optimization (MOO) has received growing attention in applications that require learning under multiple criteria. However, the existing MOO formulations do not explicitly account for distributional shifts in the data. We introduce distributionally robust multi-objective optimization (DR-MOO), which minimizes multiple objectives under their respective worst-case distributions. We propose Pareto-type solution concepts for DR-MOO and develop multi-gradient descent algorithms (MGDA) with provable guarantees. Leveraging a Lagrangian dual reformulation, we first design a double-loop MGDA that uses an inner loop to estimate dual variables and achieves a total sample complexity $\mathcal{O}(ε^{-12})$ for reaching an $ε$-Pareto-stationary point. To further improve efficiency, we incorporate gradient clipping to handle generalized-smooth and biased gradient estimates, removing the need for double sampling. This yields a single-loop double-clip MGDA with substantially improved sample complexity $\mathcal{O}(ε^{-4})$. Our theory applies to the nonconvex setting and does not require bounded objectives or gradients. Experiments demonstrate that our methods are competitive with state-of-the-art MGDA baselines.

Optimal transport (OT) is a central framework for modeling distribution shifts. Because OT compares distributions directly in input space, a well-designed ground metric between observations is essential to ensure that the optimizer does not violate the true geometry of change. We propose Displacement-Reshaped Optimal Transport (ReshapeOT), a method that reshapes the ground metric by integrating observed sample displacements as an additional source of knowledge. Technically, ReshapeOT replaces the Euclidean metric with a Mahalanobis distance estimated from displacement second moments. This effectively carves expressways through the input space, inviting transport solutions that better align with observed displacements. Our method is computationally lightweight, integrates seamlessly into any OT solver that operates on a cost matrix, and can be kernelized for further flexibility. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data show that ReshapeOT achieves substantial gains in transport reliability. We further demonstrate our method's usefulness in two practical use cases.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) is a central post-training tool for aligning large language models, but its training reward is only a learned proxy for true human utility. This creates a decision problem under objective misspecification: the policy is optimized against an estimated reward, while deployment performance is governed by an unobserved population preference. The resulting gap leads to reward over-optimization, where proxy reward keeps improving after true quality deteriorates. We propose distributionally robust regret optimization (DRRO) for RLHF with a Wasserstein ambiguity set over reward laws, using promptwise $\ell_p$ distances between reward vectors as transport costs. Unlike standard distributionally robust optimization, which pessimizes worst-case value, DRRO pessimizes worst-case regret relative to the best policy under the same plausible reward perturbation. We show that the expressive-policy problem decomposes into promptwise regret problems. For each prompt, the inner adversary has a dual-norm closed form; under the $\ell_1$ transport cost used by our algorithm, the optimizer has a water-filling structure. These results lead to a practical policy-gradient algorithm that adds a simple sampled bonus to GRPO-style training. Theory and experiments both show that DRRO is less over-pessimistic than standard DRO and mitigates over-optimization more effectively than existing baselines.

Data-driven decision-making under uncertainty typically presumes the collection of historical data from an unknown target probability distribution. However, one may have no access to any data from the target distribution prior to decision-making. To address this challenge, we propose robust out-of-distribution stochastic optimization, a novel data-driven framework that effectively utilizes relevant data distributions for robust decision-making under unseen distributions. A key feature of our framework is that all data distributions are assumed to be randomly generated from a meta-distribution over distributions. To describe uncertainty in distribution generation, we propose to learn a data-driven uncertainty set in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) from relevant data distributions, with adjustable conservatism. We then incorporate this set into a min-max stochastic program to derive robust decisions. Notably, under randomness of distribution generation, we establish rigorous out-of-distribution generalization guarantees for the uncertainty set as well as the solution. To ease problem-solving in RKHS, an approximate parametrization with a provably bounded suboptimality and a row generation strategy are presented. Extensive numerical experiments on multi-item newsvendor and portfolio optimization demonstrate the superior out-of-distribution performance of our decision-making framework under unseen data distribution, even when only a small or moderate number of relevant sources are available.

We propose a distributionally robust approach to risk-sensitive estimation of an unknown signal x from an observed signal y. The observation and unknown signal are modeled as random vectors whose joint probability distribution is unknown, but assumed to belong to a given type-2 Wasserstein ball of distributions, termed the ambiguity set. The performance of an estimator is measured according to the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of the squared estimation error. Within this framework, we study the problem of computing affine estimators that minimize the worst-case CVaR over all distributions in the given ambiguity set. As our main result, we show that, when the nominal distribution at the center of the Wasserstein ball is finitely supported, such estimators can be exactly computed by solving a tractable semidefinite program. We evaluate the proposed estimators on a wholesale electricity price forecasting task using real market data and show that they deliver lower out-of-sample CVaR of squared error compared to existing methods.

We propose a framework for contextual distributionally robust optimization (DRO) that considers the causal and continuous structure of the underlying distribution, and we develop an interpretable and tractable decision rule. We first introduce the causal Sinkhorn discrepancy (CSD), an entropy-regularized causal Wasserstein distance that encourages continuous transport plans while preserving causal consistency. We then formulate a contextual DRO model with a CSD-based ambiguity set, termed Causal Sinkhorn DRO (Causal-SDRO), and derive its strong dual reformulation, where the worst-case distribution is characterized as a mixture of Gibbs distributions. To obtain an (infinite-dimensional) optimal policy, we propose a soft regression forest (SRF) decision rule: it preserves the interpretability of classical decision trees while being fully parametric, differentiable, and Lipschitz-smooth, enabling intrinsic interpretation from both global and local perspectives. To solve the Causal-SDRO with parametric decision rules, we develop an efficient stochastic compositional gradient algorithm that converges to an $\varepsilon$-stationary point at a rate of $\mathcal{O}(\varepsilon^{-4})$, matching that of standard stochastic gradient descent. Finally, we validate our method through numerical experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets, demonstrating its superior performance and interpretability.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) increasingly shape online content, removing targeted information from well-trained LLMs (also known as LLM unlearning) has become critical for web governance. A key challenge lies in sample-wise imbalance within the forget set: different samples exhibit widely varying unlearning difficulty, leading to asynchronous forgetting where some knowledge remains insufficiently erased while others become over-forgotten. To address this, we propose BalDRO, a novel and efficient framework for balanced LLM unlearning. BalDRO formulates unlearning as a min-sup process: an inner step identifies a worst-case data distribution that emphasizes hard-to-unlearn samples, while an outer step updates model parameters under this distribution. We instantiate BalDRO via two efficient variants: BalDRO-G, a discrete GroupDRO-based approximation focusing on high-loss subsets, and BalDRO-DV, a continuous Donsker-Varadhan dual method enabling smooth adaptive weighting within standard training pipelines. Experiments on TOFU and MUSE show that BalDRO significantly improves both forgetting quality and model utility over existing methods, and we release code for reproducibility.

In many fairness and distribution robustness problems, one has access to labeled data from multiple source distributions yet the test data may come from an arbitrary member or a mixture of them. We study the problem of constructing a conformal prediction set that is uniformly valid across multiple, heterogeneous distributions, in the sense that no matter which distribution the test point is from, the coverage of the prediction set is guaranteed to exceed a pre-specified level. We first propose a max-p aggregation scheme that delivers finite-sample, multi-distribution coverage given any conformity scores associated with each distribution. Upon studying several efficiency optimization programs subject to uniform coverage, we prove the optimality and tightness of our aggregation scheme, and propose a general algorithm to learn conformity scores that lead to efficient prediction sets after the aggregation under standard conditions. We discuss how our framework relates to group-wise distributionally robust optimization, sub-population shift, fairness, and multi-source learning. In synthetic and real-data experiments, our method delivers valid worst-case coverage across multiple distributions while greatly reducing the set size compared with naively applying max-p aggregation to single-source conformity scores, and can be comparable in size to single-source prediction sets with popular, standard conformity scores.

Conformal prediction (CP) constructs uncertainty sets for model outputs with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Yet ranking scores is straightforward only when they are scalar-valued, limiting CP to real-valued scores or ad-hoc one-dimensional reductions. Vector-valued scores arise naturally in multi-output regression and model aggregation, where each predictor in an ensemble provides its own score. Optimal transport (OT) defines vector ranks and center-outward multivariate quantile regions, though generally with asymptotic coverage guarantees. Applying a fixed transport map learned from calibration data to a new point introduces an uncontrolled approximation error. We restore finite-sample, distribution-free coverage by conformalizing vector-valued OT quantile regions. Each candidate's rank is defined by transporting the calibration scores augmented with that candidate's score, preserving the symmetry needed for validity. This appears to require a continuum of OT problems. However, we prove that the optimal assignment is piecewise constant across a fixed polyhedral partition of score space. This lets us characterize the entire prediction set in $O(n^3)$ time, matching the cost of a single assignment solve. It also addresses a limitation of prediction sets: they indicate which outcomes are plausible, but not their relative likelihood. In one dimension, conformal predictive distributions (CPDs) fill this gap by producing a predictive distribution with finite-sample calibration. Extending CPDs beyond one dimension remained an open problem. We construct, to our knowledge, the first multivariate CPDs with finite-sample calibration: a center-outward predictive distribution whose derived uncertainty regions have conformal coverage. We present both conservative and exact randomized versions; the latter generalizes the classical Dempster-Hill procedure.

Robust distributed learning algorithms aim to maintain reliable performance despite the presence of misbehaving workers. Such misbehaviors are commonly modeled as \textit{Byzantine failures}, allowing arbitrarily corrupted communication, or as \textit{data poisoning}, a weaker form of corruption restricted to local training data. While prior work shows similar optimization guarantees for both models, an important question remains: \textit{How do these threat models impact generalization?} We show, for the first time, a fundamental gap in generalization guarantees between the two threat models: Byzantine failures yield strictly worse rates than those achievable under data poisoning. Our findings are based upon a tight algorithmic stability analysis of robust distributed learning. Specifically, with $f$ out of $n$ workers misbehaving, we prove that: \textit{(i)} under data poisoning, the uniform algorithmic stability of a robust distributed learning algorithm

Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) is widely used for decision-making under uncertainty, but its adversarial focus on worst-case loss can lead to overly conservative policies. To mitigate this, we study ex-ante Distributionally Robust Regret Optimization (DRRO) with Wasserstein ambiguity sets, designed to balance robustness with upside potential. We develop a theory of Wasserstein DRRO (WDRRO) paralleling Wasserstein DRO. Under smoothness and regularity, WDRRO selects among ERM optima by a first-order gradient-discrepancy rule. If the ERM optimizer is unique, first-order sensitivity vanishes and a second-order expansion governs deviations. For convex quadratics ERM and DRRO coincide for any radius. We then study regimes where these assumptions fail: nondifferentiable max-affine losses, discrete references, and larger radii, where WDRRO can differ from ERM and WDRO. We show that computing WDRRO regret is NP-hard even without bilinear terms. Nevertheless, we develop exact algorithms, a tractable convex relaxation with guarantees, and experiments showing tightness and loss-dependent behavior.

We study a class of stochastic nonsmooth optimization problems in which an outer variable minimizes the expectation of a pointwise maximum. This minimization--expectation--maximization (minEmax) problem arises in Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization and adversarially robust training, and it cannot in general be reformulated as a finite-dimensional minimax problem when the underlying distribution is not empirical. We propose a stochastic smoothing proximal gradient method based on log-mean-exp smoothing of the value function. Under compactness and Lipschitz-type assumptions, we present nonasymptotic analysis in terms of Goldstein stationarity and show that every almost-sure cluster point generated by our method is a Clarke stationary point; by Clarke regularity, such a point is also directional stationary for the original problem. Numerical experiments on newsvendor, robust regression, and adversarially robust learning problems show that the proposed method is competitive with existing baselines.

We study distributionally robust optimization (DRO) for robust inference when the worst-case distribution is continuous, leading to significant computational challenges due to the infinite-dimensional nature of the optimization problem. Unlike traditional discrete DRO approaches, which often suffer from scalability issues, limited generalization, and costly worst-case inference, our framework exploits Brenier's theorem to characterize the least favorable distribution as the pushforward of a transport map from a continuous reference measure. This characterization motivates our study of the minimax problem in Wasserstein space. We propose an iterative algorithmic framework with multiple variants and establish global convergence guarantees under mild assumptions, deriving complexity bounds in terms of subgradient evaluations and inexact Jordan-Kinderlehrer-Otto updates. Numerical results with neural network-based transport maps demonstrate that the proposed method enables both stable training of robust classifiers and effective worst-case inference for classification tasks.

Credit scoring has been catalogued by the European Commission and the Executive Office of the US President as a high-risk classification task, in light of the potential harms of making loan approval decisions based on models that would be biased against certain groups. To address this concern, recent credit scoring research has considered a range of fairness-enhancing techniques put forward by the machine learning community to reduce bias and unfair treatment in classification systems. While the definition of fairness or the approach they follow to impose it may vary, most of these techniques, however, disregard the robustness of the results. This can create situations where unfair treatment is effectively corrected in the training set, but when producing out-of-distribution classifications, unfair treatment is incurred again. Instead, in this paper, we will investigate how to apply Distributionally Robust Optimisation (DRO) methods to credit scoring, thereby empirically evaluating how they perform in terms of fairness, ability to classify correctly, and the robustness of the solution against changes in the marginal proportions. In so doing, we find DRO methods to provide a substantial improvement in terms of fairness, with almost no loss in predictive performance. These results thus indicate that DRO can improve fairness in credit scoring, provided that further advances are made in efficiently implementing these systems. In addition, our analysis suggests that many of the commonly used fairness metrics are not ideally suited to the credit scoring setting, as they evaluate performance at a single classification threshold.