DRO studies how to make predictions and decisions reliable when the distribution at deployment may differ from the observed data. Methods define ambiguity sets using tools such as Wasserstein distance, statistical divergences, or group-based reweighting, then solve the resulting worst-case optimization with dual formulations, gradient methods, or saddle-point algorithms. Applications include machine learning under subgroup and domain shifts, reinforcement learning, control, and decisions in areas such as healthcare and energy. A central challenge is balancing protection against distribution shift with computational cost and excessive conservatism, while choosing ambiguity sets that reflect real uncertainty and still support useful guarantees.
We propose a Stein variational distributionally robust controller for nonlinear dynamical systems with latent parametric uncertainty. The method is an alternative to conservative worst-case ambiguity-set optimization with a deterministic particle-based approximation of a task-dependent uncertainty distribution, enabling the controller to concentrate on parameter sensitivities that most strongly affect closed-loop performance. Our method yields a controller that is robust to latent parameter uncertainty by coupling optimal control with Stein variational inference, and avoiding restrictive parametric assumptions on the uncertainty model while preserving computational parallelism. In contrast to classical DRO, which can sacrifice nominal performance through worst-case design, we find our approach achieves robustness by shaping the control law around relevant uncertainty that are most critical to the task objective. The proposed framework therefore reconciles robust control and variational inference in a single decision-theoretic formulation for broad classes of control systems with parameter uncertainty. We demonstrate our approach on representative control problems that empirically illustrate improved performance-robustness tradeoffs over nominal, ensemble, and classical distributionally robust baselines.
Hrishikesh Sathyanarayan, Ian Abraham
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Yale University, USA · Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Sydney, Australia
We study finite-sample statistical performance guarantees for distributionally robust optimization (DRO) with optimal transport (OT) and OT-regularized divergence model neighborhoods. Specifically, we derive concentration inequalities for supervised learning via DRO-based adversarial training, as commonly employed to enhance the adversarial robustness of machine learning models. Our results apply to a wide range of OT cost functions, beyond the p-Wasserstein case studied by previous authors. In particular, our results are the first to: 1) cover soft-constraint norm-ball OT cost functions; soft-constraint costs have been shown empirically to enhance robustness when used in adversarial training, 2) apply to the combination of adversarial sample generation and adversarial reweighting that is induced by using OT-regularized f-divergence model neighborhoods; the added reweighting mechanism has also been shown empirically to further improve performance. In addition, even in the p-Wasserstein case, our bounds exhibit better behavior as a function of the DRO neighborhood size than previous results when applied to the adversarial setting.
Jeremiah Birrell, Xiaoxi Shen
Department of Mathematics Texas State University San Marcos, TX, USA
Precision mental health requires treatment decisions that account for heterogeneous symptoms reflecting multiple clinical domains. However, existing methods for estimating individualized treatment effects (ITE) rely on a single summary outcome or a specific set of observed symptoms or measures, which are sensitive to symptom selection and limit generalizability to unmeasured yet clinically relevant domains. We propose DRIFT, a new maximin framework for estimating robust ITEs from high-dimensional item-level data by leveraging latent factor representations and adversarial learning. DRIFT learns latent constructs via generalized factor analysis, then constructs an anchored on-target uncertainty set that extrapolates beyond the observed measures to approximate the broader hyper-population of potential outcomes. By optimizing worst-case performance over this uncertainty set, DRIFT yields ITEs that are robust to underrepresented or unmeasured domains. We further show that DRIFT is invariant to admissible reparameterizations of the latent factors and admits a closed-form maximin solution, with theoretical guarantees for identification and convergence. In analyses of a randomized controlled trial for major depressive disorder (EMBARC), DRIFT demonstrates superior performance and improved generalizability to external multi-domain outcomes, including side effects and self-reported symptoms not used during training.
Yuying Lu, Wenbo Fei, Yuanjia Wang +1
Department of Biostatistics, Columbia Mailman School of Public Health. · Department of Biostatistics, Peking University Health Science Center. · Beijing International Center for Mathematical Research, Peking University.
Large Language Models (LLMs) tend to respond correctly to prompts that align well with the data they were trained and fine-tuned on. Yet, small shifts in wording, format, or language can trigger surprisingly large failures, especially on multi-step reasoning problems. To address this problem, we propose a Distributionally Robust Token Optimization (DRTO) approach, which combines token-level Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) with Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO). DRTO constructs f-divergence ambiguity sets over span-level actor losses, providing a principled way to emphasize difficult response segments during policy optimization. Empirically, DRTO enhances consistency under distribution shifts in multiple reasoning benchmarks among different tasks, achieving +4.4 percentage points on MATH-500 and +2.7 percentage points on LiveCodeBench over standard RTO.
Yeping Jin, Jiaming Hu, Ioannis Ch. Paschalidis
Department of System Engineering Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, USA · Department of Math & Statistics Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, USA
In practical machine learning, the environments encountered during the model development and deployment phases often differ, especially when a model is used by many users in diverse settings. Learning models that maintain reliable performance across plausible deployment environments is known as distributionally robust (DR) learning. In this work, we study the problem of distributionally robust feature selection (DRFS), with a particular focus on sparse sensing applications motivated by industrial needs. In practical multi-sensor systems, a shared subset of sensors is typically selected prior to deployment based on performance evaluations using many available sensors. At deployment, individual users may further adapt or fine-tune models to their specific environments. When deployment environments differ from those anticipated during development, this strategy can result in systems lacking sensors required for optimal performance. To address this issue, we propose safe-DRFS, a novel approach that extends safe screening from conventional sparse modeling settings to a DR setting under covariate shift. Our method identifies a feature subset that encompasses all subsets that may become optimal across a specified range of input distribution shifts, with finite-sample theoretical guarantees of no false feature elimination.
Automated diagnosis from chest computed tomography (CT) scans faces two persistent challenges in clinical deployment: distribution shift across acquisition sites and performance disparity across demographic subgroups. We address both simultaneously across two complementary tasks: binary COVID-19 classification from multi-site CT volumes (Task 1) and four-class lung pathology recognition with gender-based fairness constraints (Task 2). Our framework combines a lightweight MobileViT-XXS slice encoder with a two-layer SliceTransformer aggregator for volumetric reasoning, and trains with a KL-regularised Group Distributionally Robust Optimisation (Group DRO) objective that adaptively upweights underperforming acquisition centres and demographic subgroups. Unlike standard Group DRO, the KL penalty prevents group weight collapse, providing a stable balance between worst-case protection and average performance. For Task 2, we define groups at the granularity of gender class, directly targeting severely underrepresented combinations such as female Squamous cell carcinoma. On Task 1, our best configuration achieves a challenge F1 of 0.835, surpassing the best published challenge entry by +5.9. On Task 2, Group DRO with α = 0.5 achieves a mean per-gender macro F1 of 0.815, outperforming the best challenge entry by +11.1 pp and improving Female Squamous F1 by +17.4 over the Focal Loss baseline.
Samuel Johnny, Blessed Guda, Goodness Obasi +2
Carnegie Mellon University Africa, Kigali, Rwanda · Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, USA
Real-world data in health, economics, and environmental sciences are often collected across heterogeneous domains (such as hospitals, regions, or time periods). In such settings, distributional shifts can make standard PCA unreliable, in that, for example, the leading principal components may explain substantially less variance in unseen domains than in the training domains. Existing approaches (such as FairPCA) have proposed to consider worst-case (rather than average) performance across multiple domains. This work develops a unified framework, called wcPCA, applies it to other objectives (resulting in the novel estimators such as norm-minPCA and norm-maxregret, which are better suited for applications with heterogeneous total variance) and analyzes their relationship. We prove that for all objectives, the estimators are worst-case optimal not only over the observed source domains but also over all target domains whose covariance lies in the convex hull of the (possibly normalized) source covariances. We establish consistency and asymptotic worst-case guarantees of empirical estimators. We extend our methodology to matrix completion, another problem that makes use of low-rank approximations, and prove approximate worst-case optimality for inductive matrix completion. Simulations and two real-world applications on ecosystem-atmosphere fluxes demonstrate marked improvements in worst-case performance, with only minor losses in average performance.
Anya Fries, Markus Reichstein, David Blei +1
Seminar for Statistics, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland · Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany · Department of Computer Science and Department of Statistics, Columbia University, New York, USA
We consider Markov decision processes (MDPs) with unknown disturbance distribution and address this problem using the robust Markov decision process (RMDP) approach. We construct the empirical distribution of the unknown disturbance distribution and characterize our ambiguity set of distributions as the sublevel set of a nonnegative distance function from the empirical distribution. By connecting the weak convergence of distributions to convergence with respect to the distance function, we prove that the robust optimal value function and the out-of-sample value function converge to the true optimal value function with increasing sample-sizes. We establish that, for finite sample-sizes, the robust optimal value function serves as a high probability upper bound on the out-of-sample value function. We also obtain probabilistic convergence rates, sample complexity bounds, and out-of-distribution performance bounds. The finite sample performance guarantees rely on the distance function satisfying a certain concentration type inequality. Several well-studied distances in the literature meet the requirements imposed on the distance function. We also analyze the data-driven properties of empirical MDPs and demonstrate that, unlike our data-driven RMDPs, empirical MDPs fail to satisfy some of the finite sample performance guarantees.
Sivaramakrishnan Ramani
Department of Computational Applied Mathematics and Operations Research, Rice University, Houston, USA.
Preference-based alignment methods (e.g., RLHF, DPO) typically optimize a single scalar objective, implicitly averaging over heterogeneous human preferences. In practice, systematic annotator and user-group disagreement makes mean-reward maximization brittle and susceptible to proxy over-optimization. We propose Disagreement-Aware Alignment via Risk-Constrained Decoding (DARC), a retraining-free inference-time method that frames response selection as distributionally robust, risk-sensitive decision making. Given multiple preference samples or scalable disagreement proxies, DARC reranks candidates by maximizing a KL-robust (entropic) satisfaction objective, and provides simple deployment controls that cap or penalize the corresponding entropic risk premium relative to the mean, enabling explicit risk budgets without retraining. We provide theoretical characterization linking this decoding rule to principled pessimism and KL-based distributionally robust optimization. Experiments on alignment benchmarks show that DARC reduces disagreement and tail risk while maintaining competitive average quality under noisy, heterogeneous feedback.
Mingxi Zou, Jiaxiang Chen, Junfan Li +4
Fudan University, Shanghai, China · Independent Researcher · Meta AI +1
Robust Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) address environmental shift through distributionally robust optimization (DRO) by finding an optimal worst-case policy within an uncertainty set of transition kernels. However, standard DRO approaches require enlarging the uncertainty set under large shifts, which leads to overly conservative and pessimistic policies. In this paper, we propose a framework for transfer under environment shift that derives a robust target-domain policy via estimate-centered uncertainty sets, constructed through constrained estimation that integrates limited target samples with side information about the source-target dynamics. The side information includes bounds on feature moments, distributional distances, and density ratios, yielding improved kernel estimates and tighter uncertainty sets. The side information includes bounds on feature moments, distributional distances, and density ratios, yielding improved kernel estimates and tighter uncertainty sets. Error bounds and convergence results are established for both robust and non-robust value functions. Moreover, we provide a finite-sample guarantee on the learned robust policy and analyze the robust sub-optimality gap. Under mild low-dimensional structure on the transition model, the side information reduces this gap and improves sample efficiency. We assess the performance of our approach across OpenAI Gym environments and classic control problems, consistently demonstrating superior target-domain performance over state-of-the-art robust and non-robust baselines.
Akram S. Awad, Shihab Ahmed, Yue Wang +1
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Central Florida, USA · Department of Computer Science, University of Central Florida, USA
Integrative analysis of multiple datasets for estimating optimal individualized treatment rules (ITRs) can enhance decision efficiency. A central challenge is posterior shift, wherein the conditional distribution of potential outcomes given covariates differs between source and target populations. We propose a prior information-based distributionally robust ITR (PDRO-ITR) that maximizes the worst-case policy value over a covariate-dependent distributional uncertainty set, ensuring robust performance under posterior shift. The uncertainty set is constructed as an individualized combination of source distributions, with weights combining prior source-membership probabilities and deviation terms constrained to the probability simplex to accommodate posterior shift. We derive a closed-form solution for the PDRO-ITR and develop an adaptive procedure to tune the uncertainty level. We establish risk bounds for the PDRO-ITR estimator, which guarantees robust performance under the worst case. Extensive simulations and two real-data applications demonstrate that the proposed method achieves superior performance compared to existing approaches.
Wenhai Cui, Wen Su, Xingqiu Zhao
Department of Applied Mathematics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University · Department of Biostatistics, City University of Hong Kong
We study distributionally robust online learning, where a risk-averse learner updates decisions sequentially to guard against worst-case distributions drawn from a Wasserstein ambiguity set centered at past observations. While this paradigm is well understood in the offline setting through Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO), its online extension poses significant challenges in convergence. In this paper, we formulate the problem as an online saddle-point stochastic game between a decision maker and an adversary selecting worst-case distributions, and propose a general framework that converges to a robust Nash equilibrium coinciding with the solution of the corresponding offline Wasserstein DRO problem.
Real-world deployments routinely face distribution shifts, group imbalances, and adversarial perturbations, under which the traditional Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) framework can degrade severely. Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) addresses this issue by optimizing the worst-case expected loss over an uncertainty set of distributions, offering a principled approach to robustness. Meanwhile, as training data in DRO always involves sensitive information, safeguarding it against leakage under Differential Privacy (DP) is essential. In contrast to classical DP-ERM, DP-DRO has received much less attention due to its minimax optimization structure with uncertainty constraint. To bridge the gap, we provide a comprehensive study of DP-(finite-sum)-DRO with ψ-divergence and non-convex loss. First, we study DRO with general ψ-divergence by reformulating it as a minimization problem, and develop a novel (ε,δ)-DP optimization method, called DP Double-Spider, tailored to this structure. Under mild assumptions, we show that it achieves a utility bound of O(n1+(nεdlog(1/δ))2/3) in terms of the gradient norm, where n denotes the data size and d denotes the model dimension. We further improve the utility rate for specific divergences. In particular, for DP-DRO with KL-divergence, by transforming the problem into a compositional finite-sum optimization problem, we develop a DP Recursive-Spider method and show that it achieves a utility bound of O((nεdlog(1/δ))2/3), matching the best-known result for non-convex DP-ERM. Experimentally, we demonstrate that our proposed methods outperform existing approaches for DP minimax optimization.
Difei Xu, Meng Ding, Zebin Ma +4
Provable Responsible AI and Data Analytics (PRADA) Lab · King Abdullah University of Science and Technology · State University of New York at Buffalo +1
We propose a framework for contextual distributionally robust optimization (DRO) that considers the causal and continuous structure of the underlying distribution, and we develop an interpretable and tractable decision rule. We first introduce the causal Sinkhorn discrepancy (CSD), an entropy-regularized causal Wasserstein distance that encourages continuous transport plans while preserving causal consistency. We then formulate a contextual DRO model with a CSD-based ambiguity set, termed Causal Sinkhorn DRO (Causal-SDRO), and derive its strong dual reformulation, where the worst-case distribution is characterized as a mixture of Gibbs distributions. To obtain an (infinite-dimensional) optimal policy, we propose a soft regression forest (SRF) decision rule: it preserves the interpretability of classical decision trees while being fully parametric, differentiable, and Lipschitz-smooth, enabling intrinsic interpretation from both global and local perspectives. To solve the Causal-SDRO with parametric decision rules, we develop an efficient stochastic compositional gradient algorithm that converges to an ε-stationary point at a rate of O(ε−4), matching that of standard stochastic gradient descent. Finally, we validate our method through numerical experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets, demonstrating its superior performance and interpretability.
Fenglin Zhang, Jie Wang
School of Artificial Intelligence The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen Shenzhen, 518172, China · School of Artificial Intelligence, School of Data Science The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen Shenzhen, 518172, China
As Large Language Models (LLMs) increasingly shape online content, removing targeted information from well-trained LLMs (also known as LLM unlearning) has become critical for web governance. A key challenge lies in sample-wise imbalance within the forget set: different samples exhibit widely varying unlearning difficulty, leading to asynchronous forgetting where some knowledge remains insufficiently erased while others become over-forgotten. To address this, we propose BalDRO, a novel and efficient framework for balanced LLM unlearning. BalDRO formulates unlearning as a min-sup process: an inner step identifies a worst-case data distribution that emphasizes hard-to-unlearn samples, while an outer step updates model parameters under this distribution. We instantiate BalDRO via two efficient variants: BalDRO-G, a discrete GroupDRO-based approximation focusing on high-loss subsets, and BalDRO-DV, a continuous Donsker-Varadhan dual method enabling smooth adaptive weighting within standard training pipelines. Experiments on TOFU and MUSE show that BalDRO significantly improves both forgetting quality and model utility over existing methods, and we release code for reproducibility.
Pengyang Shao, Naixin Zhai, Lei Chen +4
National University of Singapore Singapore · University of Science and Technology of China Hefei, China · Hefei University of Technology Hefei, China
We propose and study distributionally robust Markov games (DR-MGs) with the average-reward criterion as a crucial framework for multi-agent decision-making under model mismatches and over extended horizons. Under a standard irreducible assumption, we first derive a correspondence between the optimal policies and the solutions of the robust Bellman equation, based on which we further show the existence of a stationary Nash Equilibrium (NE) of the game. We further study DR-MGs under a more general weakly communicating setting. We construct a set-valued map based on the constant-gain optimal robust Bellman operator and show that its value is a subset of the best-response policies. We further prove that this map admits a fixed point, which implies the existence of NE. We then design two algorithms, Robust Nash-Iteration and robust TD Descent, with provably convergent guarantees. Finally, we show that the NE under average-reward can be approximated by the ones for the discounted DR-MGs as the discount factor approaches one. Our studies provide a comprehensive theoretical and algorithmic foundation for decision-making in complex, uncertain, and long-running multi-player environments.
Zachary Roch, Yue Wang
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Central Florida, Orlando, Florida, USA. · Department of Computer Science, University of Central Florida, Orlando, Florida, USA.
In many real-world applications, ensuring the robustness and stability of deep neural networks (DNNs) is crucial, particularly for image classification tasks that encounter various input perturbations. While Mixup-based data augmentation techniques have been widely adopted to enhance the resilience of trained models against such perturbations, our experiments reveal an important corruption robustness-calibration trade-off: stronger Mixup-based augmentation can improve robustness against corrupted data while substantially increasing expected calibration error (ECE). To address this challenge, we introduce DRO-Augment, a framework that integrates Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization (W-DRO) with various Mixup-based data augmentation strategies to mitigate this trade-off. Our method substantially reduces ECE under strong Mixup-based augmentation while largely preserving corruption accuracy across CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, CIFAR-10-C, and CIFAR-100-C. On the theoretical side, we establish novel generalization error bounds for neural networks trained using a variation-regularized loss function with augmented data, closely related to the W-DRO problem. Furthermore, we introduce a refined CIFAR-C benchmark that corrects inconsistencies in corruption intensities, providing a more reliable evaluation for future robustness research.
Jiaming Hu, Yeping Jin, Debarghya Mukherjee +1
Department of Mathematics & Statistics Boston University · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Division of Systems Engineering Department of Biomedical Engineering Faculty of Computing & Data Sciences Boston University
We propose a novel distributionally robust Q-learning algorithm for the non-tabular case accounting for continuous state spaces where the state transition of the underlying Markov decision process is subject to model uncertainty. The uncertainty is taken into account by considering the worst-case transition from a ball around a reference probability measure. To determine the optimal policy under the worst-case state transition, we solve the associated non-linear Bellman equation by dualising and regularising the Bellman operator with the Sinkhorn distance, which is then parameterised with deep neural networks. This approach allows us to modify the Deep Q-Network algorithm to optimise for the worst case state transition. We illustrate the tractability and effectiveness of our approach through several applications, including a portfolio optimisation task based on S&{P}~500 data. We also establish convergence guarantees for exact and approximate robust fitted Q-iteration, decompose the numerical RDQN error into interpretable components, and discuss extensions to compact continuous action sets.
Chung I Lu, Julian Sester, Aijia Zhang
National University of Singapore, Department of Mathematics, 21 Lower Kent Ridge Road, 119077.
When synthesizing multi-source high-dimensional data, a key objective is to extract low-dimensional representations that effectively approximate the original features across different sources. Such representations facilitate the discovery of transferable structures and help mitigate systematic biases such as batch effects. We introduce Stable Principal Component Analysis (StablePCA), a distributionally robust framework for constructing stable latent representations by maximizing the worst-case explained variance over multiple sources. A primary challenge in extending classical PCA to the multi-source setting lies in the nonconvex rank constraint, which renders the StablePCA formulation a nonconvex optimization problem. To overcome this challenge, we conduct a convex relaxation of StablePCA and develop an efficient Mirror-Prox algorithm to solve the relaxed problem, with global convergence guarantees. Since the relaxed problem generally differs from the original formulation, we further introduce a data-dependent certificate to assess how well the algorithm solves the original nonconvex problem and establish the condition under which the relaxation is tight. Finally, we explore alternative distributionally robust formulations of multi-source PCA based on different loss functions.
Zhenyu Wang, Molei Liu, Jing Lei +2
Department of Statistics, Rutgers University · Department of Biostatistics, Peking University Health Science Center; Beijing International Center for Mathematical Research · Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University +2
Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) is widely used for decision-making under uncertainty, but its adversarial focus on worst-case loss can lead to overly conservative policies. To mitigate this, we study ex-ante Distributionally Robust Regret Optimization (DRRO) with Wasserstein ambiguity sets, designed to balance robustness with upside potential. We develop a theory of Wasserstein DRRO (WDRRO) paralleling Wasserstein DRO. Under smoothness and regularity, WDRRO selects among ERM optima by a first-order gradient-discrepancy rule. If the ERM optimizer is unique, first-order sensitivity vanishes and a second-order expansion governs deviations. For convex quadratics ERM and DRRO coincide for any radius. We then study regimes where these assumptions fail: nondifferentiable max-affine losses, discrete references, and larger radii, where WDRRO can differ from ERM and WDRO. We show that computing WDRRO regret is NP-hard even without bilinear terms. Nevertheless, we develop exact algorithms, a tractable convex relaxation with guarantees, and experiments showing tightness and loss-dependent behavior.
Lukas-Benedikt Fiechtner, Jose Blanchet
Institute of Computational and Mathematical Engineering Stanford University · Institute of Computational and Mathematical Engineering Department of Management Science and Engineering Stanford University
We study a class of stochastic nonsmooth optimization problems in which an outer variable minimizes the expectation of a pointwise maximum. This minimization--expectation--maximization (minEmax) problem arises in Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization and adversarially robust training, and it cannot in general be reformulated as a finite-dimensional minimax problem when the underlying distribution is not empirical. We propose a stochastic smoothing proximal gradient method based on log-mean-exp smoothing of the value function. Under compactness and Lipschitz-type assumptions, we present nonasymptotic analysis in terms of Goldstein stationarity and show that every almost-sure cluster point generated by our method is a Clarke stationary point; by Clarke regularity, such a point is also directional stationary for the original problem. Numerical experiments on newsvendor, robust regression, and adversarially robust learning problems show that the proposed method is competitive with existing baselines.
Wei Liu, Muhammad Khan, Gabriel Mancino-Ball +1
Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China · Institute for Math & AI, Wuhan (IMAI), Wuhan university, China · Department of Mathematical Sciences Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY, USA
We study distributionally robust optimization (DRO) for robust inference when the worst-case distribution is continuous, leading to significant computational challenges due to the infinite-dimensional nature of the optimization problem. Unlike traditional discrete DRO approaches, which often suffer from scalability issues, limited generalization, and costly worst-case inference, our framework exploits Brenier's theorem to characterize the least favorable distribution as the pushforward of a transport map from a continuous reference measure. This characterization motivates our study of the minimax problem in Wasserstein space. We propose an iterative algorithmic framework with multiple variants and establish global convergence guarantees under mild assumptions, deriving complexity bounds in terms of subgradient evaluations and inexact Jordan-Kinderlehrer-Otto updates. Numerical results with neural network-based transport maps demonstrate that the proposed method enables both stable training of robust classifiers and effective worst-case inference for classification tasks.
Linglingzhi Zhu, Yunqin Zhu, Yao Xie
1H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology
Credit scoring has been catalogued by the European Commission and the Executive Office of the US President as a high-risk classification task, in light of the potential harms of making loan approval decisions based on models that would be biased against certain groups. To address this concern, recent credit scoring research has considered a range of fairness-enhancing techniques put forward by the machine learning community to reduce bias and unfair treatment in classification systems. While the definition of fairness or the approach they follow to impose it may vary, most of these techniques, however, disregard the robustness of the results. This can create situations where unfair treatment is effectively corrected in the training set, but when producing out-of-distribution classifications, unfair treatment is incurred again. Instead, in this paper, we will investigate how to apply Distributionally Robust Optimisation (DRO) methods to credit scoring, thereby empirically evaluating how they perform in terms of fairness, ability to classify correctly, and the robustness of the solution against changes in the marginal proportions. In so doing, we find DRO methods to provide a substantial improvement in terms of fairness, with almost no loss in predictive performance. These results thus indicate that DRO can improve fairness in credit scoring, provided that further advances are made in efficiently implementing these systems. In addition, our analysis suggests that many of the commonly used fairness metrics are not ideally suited to the credit scoring setting, as they evaluate performance at a single classification threshold.
Pablo Casas, Huan Yu, Christophe Mues
Southampton Business School, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO16 7QF, United Kingdom
Building explainable machine learning models is crucial for human users to be able to interpret the proposed statistical relationship obtained from the training data. Mixed-integer optimization formulations are often used to train such models with explicit sparsity constraints, aiming to strike the right trade-off between sparsity and prediction accuracy. Existing methods to find the right choice of sparsity -- e.g., via cross-validation -- are computationally expensive. For convex model training formulations, recent advances in distributionally robust optimization (DRO) provide strong generalization while sidestepping this computational burden. We describe an extension of such regularization via DRO to mixed-integer sparse programs, providing statistical guarantees as a function of an associated sparsity parameter of the formulation. We illustrate the use of this approach in the case of building explainable binary classification models using sets of feature value rules.
Transfer learning is a critical technique that enables the application of knowledge gained from existing tasks or domains to improve performance on a new one, reducing the need for extensive data and training in each new context. Many existing transfer learning methods rely on leveraging information from source populations closely resembling the target population. However, this approach often overlooks valuable knowledge that may be present in different yet potentially related auxiliary samples. When dealing with a limited amount of target data and multiple source data, we introduce a novel approach, Guided Adversarial Robust Transfer (GART) learning, that breaks free from strict similarity constraints. GART is designed to optimize the most adversarial loss with respect to a collection of source mixture distributions that guarantee excellent prediction performances for the target data. We establish the closed form of the population GART and show that the GART estimator achieves a faster convergence rate than the model fitted with the target data. Our simulation studies suggest that GART outperforms existing transfer learning methods, attaining higher robustness and accuracy. We highlight GART's predictiveness and robustness by applying it to form genetic prediction models of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol using multi-institutional biobank-linked electronic health records data.
Xin Xiong, Zijian Guo, Tianxi Cai
Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA · Center for Data Science, Zhejiang University, Zhejiang, China · Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
The empirical risk minimization approach to data-driven decision making requires access to training data drawn under the same conditions as those that will be faced when the decision rule is deployed. However, in a number of settings, we may be concerned that our training sample is biased in the sense that some groups (characterized by either observable or unobservable attributes) may be under- or over-represented relative to the general population; and in this setting empirical risk minimization over the training set may fail to yield rules that perform well at deployment. We propose a model of sampling bias called conditional Γ-biased sampling, where observed covariates can affect the probability of sample selection arbitrarily much but the amount of unexplained variation in the probability of sample selection is bounded by a constant factor. Applying the distributionally robust optimization framework, we propose a method for learning a decision rule that minimizes the worst-case risk incurred under a family of test distributions that can generate the training distribution under Γ-biased sampling. We apply a result of Rockafellar and Uryasev to show that this problem is equivalent to an augmented convex risk minimization problem. We give statistical guarantees for learning a model that is robust to sampling bias via the method of sieves, and propose a deep learning algorithm whose loss function captures our robust learning target. We empirically validate our proposed method in a case study on prediction of mental health scores from health survey data and a case study on ICU length of stay prediction.