Maritime Transportation

Accurate long-term trajectory prediction for maritime vessels is essential for safety and logistical efficiency. While deep learning models, particularly Transformers, have shown promise in processing Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, they often struggle with the quadratic computational complexity of self-attention and the loss of accuracy over extended forecasting horizons. This study proposes TempTPI, a novel prediction framework that integrates an Informer-based encoder with a multi-channel temporal encoding mechanism. The Informer architecture leverages a ProbSparse self-attention mechanism to reduce computational overhead and focus on the most significant dependencies, while the temporal encoder utilizes Fourier-like frequency expansions to capture cyclic patterns (hourly, daily, and seasonal) in vessel behavior. We evaluate our model against the state-of-the-art TPTrans architecture using AIS data from Danish waters. Experimental results demonstrate that TempTPI consistently outperforms existing methods across prediction windows of 1 to 5 hours. Notably, at a 5-hour horizon, the proposed model achieves a 55% improvement in Mean Squared Error (MSE), offering a robust solution for long-range maritime situational awareness.

Ship fuel consumption (SFC) prediction supports vessel operation optimisation, emissions estimation, and decision support systems (DSS) for sustainable maritime transportation. Numerous data-driven fuel models have been developed over the past two decades, but a critical and often overlooked limitation lies in their validation practices: most studies evaluate performance using random train--test splits, which, applied to high-frequency records, admit temporal leakage and yield optimistic results that do not reflect deployment conditions. This paper examines that gap using time-aware evaluation, specifically Time Series Cross-Validation (TSCV) and Blocked TSCV (BTSCV). Using the Canadian Coast Guard Ship (CCGS) Sir Wilfrid Laurier as a case study, six regression models and a physics baseline are tuned under three time-aware schemes and three feature configurations, then evaluated on a common chronological hold-out set drawn from approximately 3.88 million steady-state 1,Hz records.

Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown considerable capability for situational understanding, reasoning, and decision making in different domains, most notable in the automotive sector. Therefore, we explore current state-of-the-art LLMs as a tool for maritime navigation, which includes both codified rules in the Collision Regulations (COLREGs) and uncodified best practices summarized in the concept of ``Good Seamanship''. We construct a dataset consisting of 50 diverse, real-world navigation scenarios from AIS data, label scenarios with applicable COLREG rules, recommended actions, and the reasoning for the action. We explore a variety of different LLM architectures and sizes to determine their understanding of maritime navigation tasks as well as evaluate their reasoning capabilities in this domain. The results obtained indicate that the maritime navigation task remains difficult to solve without fine-tuning, even for larger online models.

This paper presents a trajectory prediction method for marine vessels based on optimal planning. Crude initial trajectories respecting static obstacles are first generated using A*-search to provide a feasible warm start. In the second step, a numerical optimizer is used to ensure COLREG compliance. The prediction problem is posed as sequential trajectory planning from the perspective of each surrounding vessel, requiring only their current positions, velocities, and intended destinations as input. As the latter is included in AIS messages, this enables faster predictions than learning-based methods that typically require longer data histories. The proposed method is validated using real-world scenarios constructed from AIS data.

We present an ML-based vessel detection and localization system, trained with weak supervision from imperfect AIS labels, that achieves a 97.8% detection rate at 1.98% false-trigger rate, successfully identifies dark-vessel events from unlabeled data.

Vessel trajectory prediction is important for intelligent shipping, maritime surveillance, and navigation safety. However, existing public maritime AIS resources are often limited by inconsistent forecasting protocols, uneven data quality, and the lack of benchmark-ready contextual annotations, which hinder fair comparison and context-aware modeling. To address this gap, we present EnvShip-Bench, a unified benchmark for short-term vessel trajectory prediction built from large-scale raw AIS data from the Danish Maritime Authority (DMA) and NOAA through a common processing pipeline. EnvShip-Bench adopts a standardized forecasting protocol with 10 minutes of observation, 10 minutes of prediction, and 20-second sampling in vessel-centric local metric coordinates. Beyond the large-scale core benchmark, it provides a quality-first compact subset for efficient and reproducible experimentation, together with synchronized environmental and nearby-vessel context extensions. As a result, EnvShip-Bench supports trajectory-only, environment-aware, and interaction-aware forecasting under a unified evaluation framework. Extensive benchmark statistics and analysis demonstrate that EnvShip-Bench offers a standardized, extensible, and context-aware foundation for maritime trajectory forecasting research.

Long-horizon maritime trajectory prediction is important for shipping management, logistics planning, and maritime risk analysis, yet month-level forecasting remains insufficiently studied. Existing deep learning methods mainly focus on short- and mid-term coordinate extrapolation and often struggle to preserve route feasibility and destination correctness over extended horizons. This paper investigates joint long-horizon vessel trajectory and destination forecasting with reasoning-capable large language models, and develops a Maritime LLM post-training framework based on Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Reward (RLVR). An AIS-based benchmark is constructed with 60-day historical trajectories and 30-day forecasting horizons, where trajectories are converted into semantic textual representations for RL prompt construction. RLVR aligns LLMs with maritime forecasting objectives by enforcing physical validity, providing early-weighted trajectory supervision, and evaluating destination correctness through hierarchical matching and curriculum learning. Experimental results show that RLVR-trained LLMs substantially improve over zero-shot LLMs and representative deep learning baselines, especially on destination-related metrics. Among the evaluated RLVR-trained variants, 4B LLMs achieve the best overall performance, suggesting that reward-compatible optimization and task-specific capacity matching are more important than simply using larger 8B or 14B LLMs. The results also show that LSTM remains a strong deep learning baseline under limited fine-tuning data, while Transformer-style spatio-temporal models typically require larger datasets and richer structured inputs. Overall, this work advances semantic, verifier-aligned maritime forecasting for operational decision support.

Accurate vessel traffic flow prediction is crucial for smart port operations and navigational safety. However, maritime traffic flow data are often highly sparse with intermittent bursts, making robust forecasting challenging. Under such conditions, conventional spatio-temporal graph neural networks (ST-GNNs) can degrade toward conservative near-zero predictions and fail to capture non-zero activity. Although zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models partially address excess zeros, their two-part formulation can still remain conservative around abrupt transitions. To address these issues, we propose a model-agnostic learnable Tweedie head that can be attached as a plug-and-play output module to arbitrary ST-GNN backbones. Instead of likelihood-based Tweedie training, which typically requires surrogate objectives, our approach optimizes the closed-form Tweedie unit deviance and predicts the mean for point forecasting while learning a node-level variance power to capture heterogeneous variability across port areas. Experiments on a maritime traffic graph constructed from real-world AIS data in the Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach show that the proposed head consistently improves RMSE across multiple ST-GNN backbones, especially on non-zero events, leading to more reliable forecasts for practical maritime traffic control.

The development on robust perception systems for Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS) is heavily constrained by the scarcity of diverse training data, particularly for adverse weather and low-light conditions. Because collecting paired images in dynamic maritime environments is physically impossible, synthetic data generation via unpaired image-to-image translation offers a critical solution. However, existing generative models suffer from failing to preserve the fine structural details of small navigational objects due to latent compression bottlenecks. In this paper, we introduce a framework for generating synthetic maritime data using CycleGAN-turbo, a one-step unpaired translation architecture. By incorporating zero-convolution skip connections to bypass the Variational Autoencoder (VAE) bottleneck, our approach explicitly preserves small object details (e.g., distant vessels and sea marks) during translation. We compiled a dataset of 7,000 maritime images to train and evaluate models for Day-to-Foggy, Day-to-Sunset, and Day-to-Night domain translations. Qualitative evaluations and variable-strength inference studies demonstrate that our method effectively synthesizes realistic atmospheric conditions while maintaining the underlying semantic structure of the scene. The Day-to-Foggy and Day-to-Sunset models exhibit great structural retention, whereas the Day-to-Night model highlights the challenge of semantic hallucination, such as generating artificial coastal lights, induced by unbalanced training distributions. Ultimately, this work establishes an efficient, structure-aware data synthesis pipeline that directly addresses the data scarcity bottleneck in autonomous maritime navigation.

Accurate vessel estimated-time-of-arrival forecasts are critical for port operations and decarbonization, yet global-scale travel-time prediction remains difficult without costly contextual data. Herein, I present a methodology for constructing a historical maritime knowledge graph using only Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. First, segmented trajectories are extracted from noisy AIS data using a Gaussian-mixture-model-based preprocessing pipeline. The graph is then constructed by iteratively processing the trajectories and storing speed distributions stratified by vessel type, time of travel, and direction of travel; the resulting global graph comprises 5,433 geohash-3 nodes and 12,334 edges. The graph can be queried to retrieve travel-time predictions between any two location via a hierarchical, priority-based system that uses historical statistics with principled fallback. On a temporally held-out test set, median RMSE is 22.75 min (segment-level) and 30.90 min (trajectory-level), with 69.1% of trajectories within 20% of actual arrival time. On a second external test set, median RMSE is 27.36 min (segment-level) and 37.46 min (trajectory-level), with 62.1% of trajectories within 20%. These results corroborate the promise of our method, enabling global travel-time prediction and providing a strong foundation for just-in-time arrival planning and emissions reduction.

Accurate multi-step port-of-call sequence prediction is vital for tactical resource orchestration and logistical efficiency. However, existing methods struggle with unreliable voyage schedules and the inability of AIS data to provide visibility beyond the immediate next port. To address this, this study proposes a Connectivity-Constrained and Retrieval-Enhanced (CCRE) deep learning framework. Inspired by Retrieval-Augmented Generation, CCRE introduces a retrieval-enhanced historical encoder that queries a global maritime database for contextually similar navigational precedents. Transforming these scenarios into candidate-level semantic representations compensates for data sparsity in long-tail routes and resolves routing ambiguities. Integrating this with a Transformer-based trajectory encoder, the architecture executes adaptive "middle fusion" via cross-attention. This dynamically shifts predictive reliance from real-time kinematics for short-term accuracy to historical context for long-term strategic stability. To ensure sequence-level coherence, forecasting is formulated as a joint sequence generation problem using an autoregressive Transformer decoder enriched with Scheduled Sampling and Gumbel-Softmax relaxation. This mitigates error accumulation, while topology masks strictly enforce maritime network reachability to eliminate operationally infeasible routes. Evaluated on a global dataset, CCRE achieves a 72.3% first-destination accuracy and a 61.4% average three-step accuracy, outperforming baselines like CatBoost and LSTM by average margins of 12.6% and 11.3%, respectively. Case studies further corroborate the model's scalability and ability to capture complex routing patterns across diverse international trade lanes.

Ship detection for navigation is a fundamental perception task in intelligent waterway transportation systems. However, existing public ship detection datasets remain limited in terms of scale, the proportion of small-object instances, and scene diversity, which hinders the systematic evaluation and generalization study of detection algorithms in complex maritime environments. To this end, we construct WUTDet, a large-scale ship detection dataset. WUTDet contains 100,576 images and 381,378 annotated ship instances, covering diverse operational scenarios such as ports, anchorages, navigation, and berthing, as well as various imaging conditions including fog, glare, low-lightness, and rain, thereby exhibiting substantial diversity and challenge. Based on WUTDet, we systematically evaluate 20 baseline models from three mainstream detection architectures, namely CNN, Transformer, and Mamba. Experimental results show that the Transformer architecture achieves superior overall detection accuracy (AP) and small-object detection performance (APs), demonstrating stronger adaptability to complex maritime scenes; the CNN architecture maintains an advantage in inference efficiency, making it more suitable for real-time applications; and the Mamba architecture achieves a favorable balance between detection accuracy and computational efficiency. Furthermore, we construct a unified cross-dataset test set, Ship-GEN, to evaluate model generalization. Results on Ship-GEN show that models trained on WUTDet exhibit stronger generalization under different data distributions. These findings demonstrate that WUTDet provides effective data support for the research, evaluation, and generalization analysis of ship detection algorithms in complex maritime scenarios. The dataset is publicly available at: https://github.com/MAPGroup/WUTDet.

Smart shipping operations increasingly depend on collaborative AI, yet the underlying data are generated across vessels with uneven connectivity, limited backhaul, and clear commercial sensitivity. In such settings, server-coordinated FL remains a weak systems assumption, depending on a reachable aggregation point and repeated wide-area synchronization, both of which are difficult to guarantee in maritime networks. A serverless gossip approach therefore represents a more natural approach, but existing methods still treat communication mainly as an optimization bottleneck, rather than as a resource that must be managed jointly with carbon cost, reliability, and long-term participation balance. In this context, this paper presents CARGO, a carbon-aware gossip orchestration framework for smart-shipping. CARGO separates learning into a control and a data plane. The data plane performs local optimization with compressed gossip exchange, while the control plane decides, at each round, which vessels should participate, which communication edges should be activated, how aggressively updates should be compressed, and when recovery actions should be triggered. We evaluate CARGO under a predictive-maintenance scenario using operational bulk-carrier engine data and a trace-driven maritime communication protocol that captures client dropout, partial participation, packet loss, and multiple connectivity regimes, derived from mobility-aware vessel interactions. Across the tested stress settings, CARGO consistently remains in the high-accuracy regime while reducing carbon footprint and communication overheads, compared to accuracy-competitive decentralized baselines. Overall, the conducted performance evaluation demonstrates that CARGO is a feasible and practical solution for reliable and resource-conscious maritime AI deployment.

International shipping produces approximately 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet voyage routing remains dominated by heuristic methods. We present PIER (Physics-Informed, Energy-efficient, Risk-aware routing), an offline reinforcement learning framework that learns fuel-efficient, safety-aware routing policies from physics-calibrated environments grounded in historical vessel tracking data and ocean reanalysis products, requiring no online simulator. Validated on one full year (2023) of AIS data across seven Gulf of Mexico routes (840 episodes per method), PIER reduces mean CO2 emissions by 10% relative to great-circle routing. However, PIER's primary contribution is eliminating catastrophic fuel waste: great-circle routing incurs extreme fuel consumption (>1.5x median) in 4.8% of voyages; PIER reduces this to 0.5%, a 9-fold reduction. Per-voyage fuel variance is 3.5x lower (p<0.001), with bootstrap 95% CI for mean savings [2.9%, 15.7%]. Partial validation against observed AIS vessel behavior confirms consistency with the fastest real transits while exhibiting 23.1x lower variance. Crucially, PIER is forecast-independent: unlike A* path optimization whose wave protection degrades 4.5x under realistic forecast uncertainty, PIER maintains constant performance using only local observations. The framework combines physics-informed state construction, demonstration-augmented offline data, and a decoupled post-hoc safety shield, an architecture that transfers to wildfire evacuation, aircraft trajectory optimization, and autonomous navigation in unmapped terrain.

We address the problem of transforming raw vessel trajectory data collected from AIS into structured and semantically enriched representations interpretable by humans and directly usable by machine reasoning systems. We propose a context-aware trajectory abstraction framework that segments noisy AIS sequences into distinct trips each consisting of clean, mobility-annotated episodes. Each episode is further enriched with multi-source contextual information, such as nearby geographic entities, offshore navigation features, and weather conditions. Crucially, such representations can support generation of controlled natural language descriptions using LLMs. We empirically examine the quality of such descriptions generated using several LLMs over AIS data along with open contextual features. By increasing semantic density and reducing spatiotemporal complexity, this abstraction can facilitate downstream analytics and enable integration with LLMs for higher-level maritime reasoning tasks.

Autonomous navigation in congested maritime environments is a critical capability for a wide range of real-world applications. However, it remains an unresolved challenge due to complex vessel interactions and significant environmental uncertainties. Existing methods often fail in practical deployment due to a substantial sim-to-real gap, which stems from imprecise simulation, inadequate situational awareness, and unsafe exploration strategies. To address these, we propose Sim2Sea, a comprehensive framework designed to bridge simulation and real-world execution. Sim2Sea advances in three key aspects. First, we develop a GPU-accelerated parallel simulator for scalable and accurate maritime scenario simulation. Second, we design a dual-stream spatiotemporal policy that handles complex dynamics and multi-modal perception, augmented with a velocity-obstacle-guided action masking mechanism to ensure safe and efficient exploration. Finally, a targeted domain randomization scheme helps bridge the sim-to-real gap. Simulation results demonstrate that our method achieves faster convergence and safer trajectories than established baselines. In addition, our policy trained purely in simulation successfully transfers zero-shot to a 17-ton unmanned vessel operating in real-world congested waters. These results validate the effectiveness of Sim2Sea in achieving reliable sim-to-real transfer for practical autonomous maritime navigation.

Recent advancements in reinforcement fine-tuning have significantly improved the reasoning ability of large language models (LLMs). In particular, methods such as group relative policy optimization (GRPO) have demonstrated strong capabilities across various fields. However, applying LLMs to ship trajectory prediction remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we propose ShipTraj-R1, a novel LLM-based framework that reformulates ship trajectory prediction as a text-to-text generation problem. (1) We design a dynamic prompt containing trajectory information about conflicting ships to guide the model to achieve adaptive chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning. (2) We introduce a comprehensive rule-based reward mechanism to incentivize the reasoning format and prediction accuracy of the model. (3) Our ShipTraj-R1 is reinforced through the GRPO mechanism guided by domain-specific prompts and rewards, and utilizes the Qwen3 as the model backbone. Extensive experimental results on two complex and real-world maritime datasets show that the proposed ShipTraj-R1 achieves the least error compared with state-of-the-art deep learning and LLM-based baselines.

Accurate prediction of shaft rotational speed, shaft power, and fuel consumption is crucial for enhancing operational efficiency and sustainability in maritime transportation. Conventional physics-based models provide interpretability but struggle with real-world variability, while purely data-driven approaches achieve accuracy at the expense of physical plausibility. This paper introduces a Physics-Informed Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (PI-KAN), a hybrid method that integrates interpretable univariate feature transformations with a physics-informed loss function and a leakage-free chained prediction pipeline. Using operational and environmental data from five cargo vessels, PI-KAN consistently outperforms the traditional polynomial method and neural network baselines. The model achieves the lowest mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE), and the highest coefficient of determination (R^2) for shaft power and fuel consumption across all vessels, while maintaining physically consistent behavior. Interpretability analysis reveals rediscovery of domain-consistent dependencies, such as cubic-like speed-power relationships and cosine-like wave and wind effects. These results demonstrate that PI-KAN achieves both predictive accuracy and interpretability, offering a robust tool for vessel performance monitoring and decision support in operational settings.

To reduce carbon emissions and minimize shipping costs, improving the fuel efficiency of ships is crucial. Various measures are taken to reduce the total fuel consumption of ships, including optimizing vessel parameters and selecting routes with the lowest fuel consumption. Different estimation methods are proposed for predicting fuel consumption, while various optimization methods are proposed to minimize fuel oil consumption. This paper provides a comprehensive review of methods for estimating and optimizing fuel oil consumption in maritime transport. Our novel contributions include categorizing fuel oil consumption & estimation methods into physics-based, machine-learning, and hybrid models, exploring their strengths and limitations. Furthermore, we highlight the importance of data fusion techniques, which combine AIS, onboard sensors, and meteorological data to enhance accuracy. We make the first attempt to discuss the emerging role of Explainable AI in enhancing model transparency for decision-making. Uniquely, key challenges, including data quality, availability, and the need for real-time optimization, are identified, and future research directions are proposed to address these gaps, with a focus on hybrid models, real-time optimization, and the standardization of datasets.