Multi-Quantile Regression

This work proposes deep nonparametric Instrumental variable quantile regression (IVQR), a two-stage estimator that combines conditional diffusion modeling with a kernel-smoothed conditional moment formulation. In the first stage, we estimate the joint conditional distribution of the outcome and endogenous covariates given the instrument using a variance-preserving conditional diffusion model. In the second stage, we approximate the conditional moment operator through Monte Carlo sampling and a kernel-smoothed surrogate for the indicator function, and then estimate the structural quantile function by empirical risk minimization over deep neural networks. We establish an excess-risk bound for the proposed estimator and derive end-to-end total variation guarantees for the conditional diffusion model under unbounded support, explicitly accounting for score estimation, early stopping, and discretization errors. Our theory is developed under a polynomial-tail envelope on the data distribution and degenerates continuously to the exponential setting: as the tail index grows, the obtained excess-risk rate converges to the minimax-optimal rate of nonparametric regression, thus our heavy-tailed theory covers the classical light-tailed nonparametric guarantees as a limiting case. Simulation studies and a real-data application demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms existing nonparametric IVQR approaches, with gains that become increasingly pronounced as the dimensionality of the covariates and instruments increases.

Prediction intervals for multi-modal regression with tabular variables, text, images, or other input sources are difficult to calibrate when those sources disagree or one is missing. A single global quantile averages these regimes together instead of calibrating to the modality pattern observed at test time. We address this through a modality-aware conformal calibration layer. The layer trains or reuses one predictor per modality, computes a disagreement score from their predictions, and uses that score in split conformal calibration under a strict split protocol. We use the score in two complementary ways. First, a continuous disagreement-scaled method reallocates interval width across examples while preserving the usual marginal split-conformal guarantee. Second, a Mondrian (stratified) method calibrates within groups defined by disagreement or modality availability fixed before calibration, giving group guarantees under joint exchangeability of the calibration and test examples. Across four multi-modal datasets, the disagreement-scaled layer matches or improves the marginal conformal baseline in 59 of 60 paired runs for interval continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and in 52 of 60 for interval width, while keeping empirical coverage near the 95% target. In stress tests with missing modalities, mask-matched recalibration recovers up to 19.5 percentage points of coverage in the hardest fixed-mask regime. The result is a simple, model-agnostic reliability layer for multi-modal regression systems. A project page is available at https://unco3892.github.io/modality-aware-conformal.

Accurate measurement of ECG intervals, including PR, QRS duration, and QT/QTc, is central to cardiac diagnosis, yet the published ECG delineation literature evaluates performance almost exclusively as fiducial-point timing errors on small curated databases, rather than as clinical interval accuracy on large unselected cohorts. We bridge this gap by evaluating a complete end-to-end pipeline on 10,646 clinical 12-lead ECGs and reporting the first large-scale interval measurement accuracy study with full statistical characterisation, including bias, 95% limits of agreement (Bland-Altman), bootstrap confidence intervals, and rhythm-stratified error analysis. The underlying delineation is performed by a Fast Fourier Convolution ResNet (FFCResNet), adapting local temporal convolutions with global spectral processing via FFT and augmented with register tokens for contextual feature learning. Three per-wave models (P, QRS, and T) are trained on six public databases with ECG-specific augmentation. On 10,646 ECGs, the system achieves a QT MAE of 17.5 ms [95% CI: 16.9-18.2], with a Bland-Altman bias of +8.5 ms (LoA: -68.5 to +85.5 ms); a QRS duration MAE of 14.8 ms [95% CI: 14.6-15.0], with a bias of +12.6 ms (LoA: -12.3 to +37.6 ms); and a ventricular rate MAE of 0.8 beats/min. All biases are statistically significant by the Wilcoxon signed-rank test (p < 0.001) but remain within or near published inter-observer variability bounds for sinus rhythms. Rhythm-stratified analysis reveals substantially higher QT errors for supraventricular tachycardias (SVT MAE: 75.0 ms; AVRT MAE: 85.3 ms) than for sinus bradycardia (SB MAE: 9.3 ms) and sinus rhythm (SR MAE: 8.9 ms), providing an honest characterisation of the deployment scope. Wave segmentation achieves internal Dice scores of 95.5%, 98.2%, and 96.1% for P, QRS, and T waves, respectively, and cross-database Dice scores of 78.1%, 85.5%, and 74.2%.

Explainable AI (XAI) is used to assess whether artificial intelligence models rely on meaningful patterns, yet explanations that appear plausible for individual predictions may systematically misrepresent model behavior. This is particularly problematic in medicine, where models may rely on irrelevant signal characteristics rather than disease-specific patterns without being recognizable. We address this challenge using electrocardiogram (ECG) data, for which clinical guidelines provide explicit knowledge about diagnostically relevant signal regions. We introduce a global, guideline-grounded framework that aggregates explanations across heartbeats to evaluate them against clinically defined regions of interest. Using four binary classifiers trained on PTB-XL, we assess 13 gradient-based methods across two categories of patterns: low-amplitude segments and high-amplitude QRS morphology. Our results reveal a systematic failure of methods transferred from computer vision. Their explanations often follow signal amplitude rather than clinical relevance, with mean Spearman correlations up to 0.69, leading them to overlook diagnostically decisive low-amplitude regions. For ischemia, LRP-$ε$ assigns only 4.6% of relevance to the ST segment, compared with 63.8% for LRP-SIGN. Nine of 13 methods fall below chance for at least one condition, indicating inconsistent reliability across patterns. These findings show that global, domain-grounded evaluation can uncover systematic explanation failures not obvious from sample-level heatmaps.

Boosting is one of the most successful learning techniques for standard classification and regression tasks. Its extension to multi-output prediction problems has found an increasing number of applications in recent years. Among them is the prediction of entire conditional distributions rather than single functionals, which can often be framed as a multi-output regression problem, for example multiple quantile regression. Addressing such problems with classical implementations of boosting is computationally challenging, because usually one base model is trained for each target at every iteration. More efficient variants of boosting have been proposed to speed up training, but they tend to be tied to specific loss functions and classes of base learners, usually decision trees. In this work, we study a modification of the gradient boosting algorithm, which we call parallel gradient boosting, designed to circumvent all these limitations. The core idea is to use a common descent direction for all training observations. By doing so, only one base model is needed at each iteration, regardless of the number of targets, which allows for considerable performance gains. We establish sufficient conditions for the convergence of the algorithm, whose practical use is introduced via the multiple quantile regression setting. We show that in such a setting, it provides predictions of similar quality to state-of-the-art boosting libraries such as XGBoost, while being faster by several orders of magnitude. Then, we evaluate the properties of the resulting conditional distribution estimator, which is shown empirically to outperform other nonparametric and semiparametric estimators, especially in high-dimensional settings and in the presence of mixed and/or missing covariates.

Quantile regression provides a powerful tool for summarizing the conditional distribution of a real valued random variable (r.v.) of interest $Y$ as a function of covariates $Z$ in cases where it shows a large dispersion with high probability, going beyond the situation where standard least square regression is informative/predictive. This article aims to extend this methodology to the pairwise case, when the variable to be explained takes the form of a similarity function between two independent observations, such as pixelated ID photos, as input data of biometric systems) and the explanatory variables take the form of a pair of covariates of the observations, such as the age or the hair color. We establish theoretical guarantees for solutions of this statistical learning problem, considered here as empirical minimizers of a pairwise version of the pinball loss. Leveraging sharp concentration results for $U$-processes, we prove generalization bounds and identify mild conditions under which fast learning rates can be achieved. Confirming the probabilistic analysis, experiments based on simulation data also provide solid empirical evidence of the validity of the methodology promoted here for pairwise quantile regression. Finally, its usefulness from an application perspective is demonstrated by a detailed study aimed at analyzing errors in similarity scoring for facial recognition.

Online high-dimensional regression requires algorithms that can update sequentially while preserving structural sparsity. We propose \textit{Adaptive Iterative Hard Thresholding (AIHT)}, an online sparse-regression framework that alternates stochastic subgradient updates with adaptively scheduled hard-thresholding steps. The key idea is to separate support discovery from local refinement: early in the learning process, AIHT delays thresholding so that weak but informative coordinates have time to accumulate signal, while later it increases the projection frequency to stabilize the sparse estimator and exploit local curvature. We develop the theory for high-dimensional online quantile regression, a challenging setting in which the loss is nonsmooth and the data may exhibit heterogeneity or heavy-tailed noise. Under restricted curvature and gradient-leakage conditions, AIHT remains in an inflated sparse cone, exhibits a two-phase convergence behavior, and attains logarithmic regret for the sliding-window objective. Simulations for online quantile regression, together with threshold-scheduling ablations, support the proposed mechanism and illustrate its advantage over standard online sparse-learning baselines.

Efficient uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for trustworthy large-scale learning. Existing UQ methods for regression tasks mainly operate under the assumption that the conditional label marginal satisfies single-peak parametric models, e.g., Gaussians, where the negative log-likelihood function simplifies to the mean square error. However, such single-peak assumptions fail in regression tasks featuring multi-modal distributions. On the other hand, semi-parametric methods which achieve strong regression performance for multi-modal distributions often lack efficient quantification on their prediction variances. In this work, we extend UQ techniques based on Variational Bayesian Inference (VBI) to two widely used semi-parametric regression models that yield histogram-like reconstructions of the conditional label densities: Quantile Regression (QR) and Classification Restoration (CR). Our approach introduces a unified, distribution-agnostic framework that simultaneously achieves accurate estimation of complex conditional distributions and highly efficient UQ. Theoretically, our method is grounded in novel formulations of QR and CR within the VBI framework, yielding analytic Evidence Lower Bounds (ELBO) to streamline training and a closed-form or analytically approximated predictive density for efficient inference. Empirically, we evaluate our methods on three large-scale regression benchmarks with multi-modal label distributions. Our framework outperforms state-of-the-art multi-modal regression baselines, and even matches predictive performance of computationally expensive ensemble models. Furthermore, by leveraging epistemic uncertainty estimation, our approach enables highly data-efficient active learning strategies.

Symbolic regression (SR) is a class of methods that systematically explore the space of mathematical functions to discover models that accurately capture the underlying relationships in a dataset. Despite recent advances in the field, a lack of support for uncertainty quantification (UQ) limits its adoption in real-world decision processes. In regression analysis, UQ provides important information about the model reliability, which can both help to avoid overfitting by accounting for uncertainty in the data, and provide insights for decision-making. This survey is the first to clearly address this issue, with the objective of introducing essential UQ concepts and reviewing the current literature on UQ in SR, which can be broadly organized into three research directions: frequentist, Bayesian, and model selection. Despite its importance, UQ in SR is still underexplored, which motivates further research into reliable UQ methods for SR.

Recent advances in large language models and agentic AI systems have enabled significant progress in mathematical discovery, from solving competition problems to tackling research-level conjectures. However, open problems in computational mathematics have received comparatively less attention: research in this area often requires not only proofs but also numerical experimentation, adversarial constructions, and algorithm design. In this paper, we introduce an agentic research system, Iteris, designed for open problems in computational mathematics. We apply Iteris to two open problems from a recent Simons Workshop collection (arXiv:2602.05394). In these case studies, Iteris generated numerical evidence, constructions, and proof drafts that led, after expert review and correction, to verified results. The first result is a phase diagram for the asymptotic comparison between conjugate gradient and randomized coordinate descent on power-law spectra; the second is a counterexample showing that QR factorization with column pivoting can fail to select well-conditioned submatrices even under low coherence. These case studies suggest that agentic AI systems can participate meaningfully in research workflows for open problems in computational mathematics, while human validation remains essential.

We study quantile regression in an extrapolation regime where the covariate takes unusually large values. Under regular variation assumptions, extreme observations can be effectively characterized through their angular components, enabling learning strategies that focus on the angle of the most extreme observations. This approach is formalized through the minimization of an asymptotic conditional risk that localizes learning in the tail of the covariate distribution. We propose a novel Support Vector Machine (SVM) framework for extreme quantile regression, leveraging reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces to handle high-dimensional and nonlinear settings. Our method also accommodates unbounded response variables and avoids restrictive transformations. We establish finite-sample learning guarantees under mild regularity assumptions. The proposed framework unifies ideas from statistical learning and multivariate extremes, providing a tractable and theoretically grounded approach to extrapolation. We complement our theoretical findings with an empirical study on river flow data from the Danube, demonstrating the practical relevance of our methods.

Ordinal Regression (OR) aims to predict target values with inherent order, underpinning critical applications across diverse domains, from recommender systems to computer vision. Though having evolved from naive regression to discretization-based classification and generation, existing paradigms remain fundamentally constrained by quantization artifacts and the lack of global ordinal topological perception. These methods typically enforce rigid boundary delineations, failing to capture the non-stationary semantic transitions inherent to ordinal data. In this paper, we propose a novel paradigm where OR is formulated as a Continuous Generative Ordinal Regression task. Under the novel paradigm, we introduce DiffOR, a unified framework that leverages diffusion models to recover continuous ordinal values via iterative denoising, thereby enabling the dynamic learning of soft semantic transitions. To explicitly preserve ordinal topology, we devise a Dual-Decoupling Strategy: Spatially, Multi-scale Increment Aggregation decomposes targets into hierarchical continuous increments; Temporally, Dynamic Denoising Perception synchronizes denoising steps with feature frequencies, ensuring robust coarse-to-fine refinement. Theoretically, we show that the proposed method can significantly enhance both representation capability and mechanistic interpretability. Extensive experiments on 12 benchmarks across four domains validate DiffOR's consistent superiority over state-of-the-art methods, establishing a new standard that demonstrates strong potential as a general-purpose solution for universal ordinal regression.

Deep-learning precipitation nowcasting models are often optimized using pointwise losses such as mean squared error or mean absolute error, which can lead to overly smooth forecasts and poor representation of heavy rainfall. This study investigates whether the predictive performance of an established deterministic nowcasting architecture can be improved by reformulating training as a multi-quantile regression problem. Using SmaAt-UNet as a core model, we compare MSE, MAE, and multi-quantile pinball-loss training on radar precipitation nowcasting over the Netherlands. The results show that multi-quantile training improves the central deterministic forecast, decreasing test-set MSE by 8.6% compared to a model trained using MSE, while also producing upper-quantile outputs that are useful for risk-sensitive prediction of heavy precipitation. These findings suggest that quantile regression provides a simple alternative to standard pointwise losses without requiring a new architecture or generative sampling procedure. The implementation of our models and training setup is available on \href{https://github.com/gijsvn/Multi-Quantile-Precipitation-Nowcasting}{GitHub}.

Shampoo-based methods, such as KL-Shampoo and SOAP, have demonstrated strong performance in training neural networks and rely on QR decomposition. Because existing QR implementations require single-precision (FP32) arithmetic and remain computationally expensive, these methods become time- and memory-intensive when their preconditioning matrices are large. Moreover, using BFloat16 (BFP16) storage to reduce memory usage can degrade the performance of Shampoo-based methods. We propose a reparametrization of the preconditioner that supports BFP16 storage and forms a complete basis by combining updated basis vectors with unchanged ones. By updating only part of the basis through QR decomposition in a subspace, our approach reduces computational overhead while mitigating the performance degradation caused by BFP16 storage. Our approach applies broadly to Shampoo-based methods that employ QR decomposition, including KL-Shampoo, SOAP, and KL-SOAP. In particular, it improves the performance of SOAP and KL-SOAP under BFP16 storage, enabling KL-SOAP to match or exceed KL-Shampoo. Overall, our approach makes Shampoo-based methods more memory- and time-efficient.

Deep super-resolution networks for precipitation downscaling achieve strong bulk skill yet systematically under-predict the heavy-tail events that drive flood risk. We demonstrate that the primary obstacle is the loss function, not the data: under intensity-weighted MAE, real and synthetic labels at the same input are simply averaged, meaning data augmentation shifts the predicted mean rather than the conditional distribution. We resolve this with Q-SRDRN, a multi-quantile super-resolution network trained with pinball loss at tau in 0.50, 0.95, 0.99, 0.999. Two CNN-specific design choices make this practical: IncrementBound enforces monotonicity while preserving each quantile channel's gradient identity, and separate per-quantile output heads provide independent filter banks for bulk and tail detection. Under this design, data augmentation via cVAE becomes complementary: the median head absorbs synthetic patterns without contaminating upper quantiles. Empirically, on Florida (convective/tropical-cyclone dominated), the un-augmented Q-SRDRN P999 head detects 1,598 of 2,111 events at 200 mm/day versus 88 for the deterministic baseline--an 18x detection-rate gain (4.2% to 75.7%)--with 63% lower KL divergence and 3.9% lower RMSE. Adding cVAE-generated samples lifts the P50 channel from 14 to 1,038 hits at 200 mm/day. On California (atmospheric-river dominated), the architecture reaches near-perfect detection (P999 SEDI >= 0.996 through 300 mm/day). On Texas, the baseline catches only 2 of 10,720 events at 200 mm/day while the P999 head catches 8,776 (81.9%). While the cVAE does not transfer across regions, multi-quantile regression captures extremes wherever the large-scale signal is strong, while augmentation rescues the median where it is not.

Conformal prediction provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification with finite-sample coverage guarantees. While recent work has extended conformal prediction to online and sequential settings, existing methods typically focus on a single coverage level and do not ensure consistency across multiple confidence levels. In many real-world applications, such as weather forecasting, macroeconomic prediction, and risk management, different users operate under heterogeneous risk tolerances and require calibrated uncertainty estimates across a range of coverage levels. In such settings, it is desirable to produce prediction sets corresponding to different coverage levels that are nested and valid simultaneously. In this paper, we propose two novel online conformal prediction methods that output \emph{nested prediction sets} across a range of coverage levels, enabling simultaneous uncertainty quantification across the entire risk spectrum. Beyond interpretability, jointly estimating multiple coverage levels is known to improve statistical efficiency in classical quantile regression by enforcing non-crossing constraints and sharing information across quantiles. Our approaches leverage an online optimization perspective with small regret that translates to quantile estimation error control while enforcing nestedness of prediction sets. Empirical results on synthetic and real-world datasets, including applications in forecasting tasks with heterogeneous risk requirements, demonstrate that our method achieves stable coverage across all levels, strictly nested prediction sets, and improved efficiency compared to existing online conformal baselines.

Quantile regression is a fundamental tool for distributional learning but poses significant optimization challenges for deep models due to the non-smoothness of the pinball loss. We propose ConquerNet, a class of \textbf{con}volution-smoothed \textbf{qu}antil\textbf{e} \textbf{R}eLU neural \textbf{net}works, which yield smooth objectives while preserving the underlying quantile structure. We establish general nonasymptotic risk bounds for ConquerNet under mild conditions, providing minimax guarantees over Besov function classes. In numerical studies, we demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms standard quantile neural networks at multiple quantile levels, showing improved estimation accuracy and training efficiency across the board, with particularly pronounced advantages at high and low quantiles.

Extreme value theory provides rigorous theory and statistical tools for extrapolation in machine learning, particularly in settings where traditional methods struggle due to data scarcity in the tails. A broad range of tasks benefit from these advances, including regression and classification beyond the training data, extreme quantile regression, supervised and unsupervised dimension reduction, generative artificial intelligence and anomaly detection. This review synthesizes recent developments in these fields at the intersection of statistical learning and extreme value theory, with a focus on principled methods based on asymptotically motivated representations of the tail of univariate and multivariate distributions. We consider different theoretical frameworks for both asymptotically dependent and independent data and discuss how they translate into efficient statistical methods for extrapolation to extreme regions. By addressing both theoretical and practical aspects, we offer a comprehensive overview of the state-of-the-art in this quickly evolving field, and identify promising directions for future research.

The field of machine learning is subject to an increasing interest in models that are not only accurate but also interpretable and robust, thus allowing their end users to understand and trust AI systems. This paper presents a novel method for learning a set of optimal quantile regression trees. The advantages of this method are that (1) it provides predictions about the complete conditional distribution of a target variable without prior assumptions on this distribution; (2) it provides predictions that are interpretable; (3) it learns a set of optimal quantile regression trees without compromising algorithmic efficiency compared to learning a single tree.

Many applications of LLM-based text regression require predicting a full conditional distribution rather than a single point value. We study distributional regression under empirical-quantile supervision, where each input is paired with multiple observed quantile outcomes, and the target distribution is represented by a dense grid of quantiles. We address two key limitations of current approaches: the lack of local grounding for distribution estimates, and the reliance on shared representations that create an indirect bottleneck between inputs and quantile outputs. In this paper, we introduce Quantile Token Regression, which, to our knowledge, is the first work to insert dedicated quantile tokens into the input sequence, enabling direct input-output pathways for each quantile through self-attention. We further augment these quantile tokens with retrieval, incorporating semantically similar neighbor instances and their empirical distributions to ground predictions with local evidence from similar instances. We also provide the first theoretical analysis of loss functions for quantile regression, clarifying which distributional objectives each optimizes. Experiments on the Inside Airbnb and StackSample benchmark datasets with LLMs ranging from 1.7B to 14B parameters show that quantile tokens with neighbors consistently outperform baselines (~4 points lower MAPE and 2x narrower prediction intervals), with especially large gains on smaller and more challenging datasets where quantile tokens produce substantially sharper and more accurate distributions.

This paper investigates the off-policy evaluation (OPE) problem from a distributional perspective. Rather than focusing solely on the expectation of the total return, as in most existing OPE methods, we aim to estimate the entire return distribution. To this end, we introduce a quantile-based approach for OPE using deep quantile process regression, presenting a novel algorithm called Deep Quantile Process regression-based Off-Policy Evaluation (DQPOPE). We provide new theoretical insights into the deep quantile process regression technique, extending existing approaches that estimate discrete quantiles to estimate a continuous quantile function. A key contribution of our work is the rigorous sample complexity analysis for distributional OPE with deep neural networks, bridging theoretical analysis with practical algorithmic implementations. We show that DQPOPE achieves statistical advantages by estimating the full return distribution using the same sample size required to estimate a single policy value using conventional methods. Empirical studies further show that DQPOPE provides significantly more precise and robust policy value estimates than standard methods, thereby enhancing the practical applicability and effectiveness of distributional reinforcement learning approaches.

The quantification of uncertainty in prediction models is crucial for reliable decision-making, yet remains a significant challenge. Interval time series forecasting offers a principled solution to this problem by providing prediction intervals (PIs), which indicates the probability that the true value falls within the predicted range. We consider a recently established point forecasts (PFs) method termed Learning-Based Convolution Nuclear Norm Minimization (LbCNNM), which directly generates multi-step ahead forecasts by leveraging the convolutional low-rankness property derived from training data. While theoretically complete and empirically effective, LbCNNM lacks inherent uncertainty estimation capabilities, a limitation shared by many advanced forecasting methods. To resolve the issue, we modify the well-known Quantile Regression (QR) and integrate it into LbCNNM, resulting in a novel interval forecasting method termed LbCNNM with Modified Quantile Regression (LbCNNM-MQR). In addition, we devise interval calibration techniques to further improve the accuracy of PIs. Extensive experiments on over 100,000 real-world time series demonstrate the superior performance of LbCNNM-MQR.

In high-stakes scenarios, such as medical imaging applications, it is critical to equip the predictions of a regression model with reliable confidence intervals. Recently, Conformal Prediction (CP) has emerged as a powerful statistical framework that, based on a labeled calibration set, generates intervals that include the true labels with a pre-specified probability. In this paper, we address the problem of applying CP for regression models when the calibration set contains noisy labels. We begin by establishing a mathematically grounded procedure for estimating the noise-free CP threshold. Then, we turn it into a practical algorithm that overcomes the challenges arising from the continuous nature of the regression problem. We evaluate the proposed method on two medical imaging regression datasets with Gaussian label noise. Our method significantly outperforms the existing alternative, achieving performance close to the clean-label setting.

With the development of big data and machine learning, privacy concerns have become increasingly critical, especially when handling heterogeneous datasets containing sensitive personal information. Differential privacy provides a rigorous framework for safeguarding individual privacy while enabling meaningful statistical analysis. In this paper, we propose a differentially private quantile regression method for high-dimensional data in a distributed setting. Quantile regression is a powerful and robust tool for modeling the relationships between the covariates and responses in the presence of outliers or heavy-tailed distributions. To address the computational challenges due to the non-smoothness of the quantile loss function, we introduce a Newton-type transformation that reformulates the quantile regression task into an ordinary least squares problem. Building on this, we develop a differentially private estimation algorithm with iterative updates, ensuring both near-optimal statistical accuracy and formal privacy guarantees. For inference, we further propose a differentially private debiased estimator, which enables valid confidence interval construction and hypothesis testing. Additionally, we propose a communication-efficient and differentially private bootstrap for simultaneous hypothesis testing in high-dimensional quantile regression, suitable for distributed settings with both small and abundant local data. Extensive simulations demonstrate the robustness and effectiveness of our methods in practical scenarios.

Regression problems with continuous bounded outcomes frequently arise in statistical and machine learning applications, such as the analysis of rates and proportions. A central challenge in this setting is predicting the response at a new covariate value. Most of the existing literature has focused either on point prediction or on interval prediction based on asymptotic approximations. We develop conformal prediction intervals for bounded outcomes within the framework of transformation regression models, encompassing widely used models such as beta regression and logit-normal regression. We construct non-conformity scores based on model-aligned residuals and identify a quantile-residual score that is particularly well suited to bounded outcomes, bridging normalized conformal prediction and distributional conformal prediction. This score accounts for both the heteroscedasticity inherent in such data and the asymmetry that emerges near the boundaries of the response space. We establish marginal validity and asymptotic conditional validity for both full and split conformal prediction, holding under model misspecification. A comprehensive simulation study confirms that both methods empirically attain valid finite-sample coverage, including cases under model misspecification. A real-data application demonstrates their practical performance against bootstrap-based alternatives.