OOD Generalization
OOD: Out-of-Distribution
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29 papers in the last four weeks, up 263% on the four weeks before. 0.3% of all new papers.
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Accurate traffic prediction is essential for optimizing transportation systems, enhancing resource allocation, and improving overall urban administration. Spatio-temporal graph neural networks (GNNs) have achieved state-of-the-art performance and have been widely used in various spatio-temporal prediction scenarios. However, these prediction methods often exhibit low generalization ability, struggling with distribution shifts caused by spatio-temporal dynamics. To address this challenge, we propose an approach to enhance the generalization and adaptation of spatio-temporal GNNs through efficient prompting. Specifically, we introduce a lightweight and model-agnostic prompt tuning framework for spatio-temporal GNNs, named SimpleST. It facilitates adapting pre-trained spatio-temporal GNNs to novel distributions while keeping the model parameters fixed. This prompt mechanism reduces the overhead and complexity of adaptation, enabling efficient utilization of pre-trained models for out-of-distribution generalization. Extensive experiments conducted on five real-world urban spatio-temporal datasets demonstrate the superiority of our approach in terms of prediction accuracy and computational efficiency.
On the Safety of Graph Representation Learning
Graph representation learning (GRL) has evolved from topology-only graph embeddings to task-specific supervised GNNs, and more recently to reusable representations and graph foundation models (GFMs). However, existing evaluations mainly measure clean transfer, adaptation, and task coverage. It remains unclear whether GRL methods stay reliable when deployment stresses affect graph signals, graph contexts, label support, structural groups, or predictive evidence. We introduce GRL-Safety, a multi-axis safety evaluation benchmark for GRL. GRL-Safety evaluates twelve representative methods, spanning topology-only embedding methods, supervised GNNs, self-supervised graph models, and GFMs, on twenty-five graph datasets under standardized evaluation conditions while preserving method-native adaptation. The evaluation covers five safety axes: corruption robustness, OOD generalization, class imbalance, fairness, and interpretation, with per-axis and sub-condition reporting rather than a single aggregate score. Our analysis yields three cross-axis insights that can inspire future research. First, safety behavior is shaped by the interaction between representation design and the stressed graph factor, rather than by method family alone. Second, foundation-era methods show axis-specific strengths rather than broad safety dominance. Third, several deployment regimes remain difficult even for the best evaluated method, revealing capability gaps that require new robustness, adaptation, or training objectives beyond model selection. The benchmark, evaluation protocols, and code are available at: https://github.com/GXG-CS/GRL-Safety.
Agentic AIs Are the Missing Paradigm for Out-of-Distribution Generalization in Foundation Models
Foundation models (FMs) are increasingly deployed in open-world settings where distribution shift is the rule rather than the exception. The out-of-distribution (OOD) phenomena they face -- knowledge boundaries, capability ceilings, compositional shifts, and open-ended task variation -- differ in kind from the settings that have shaped prior OOD research, and are further complicated because the pretraining and post-training distributions of modern FMs are often only partially observed. Our position is that OOD for foundation models is a structurally distinct problem that cannot be solved within the prevailing model-centric paradigm, and that agentic systems constitute the missing paradigm required to address it. We defend this claim through four steps. First, we give a stage-aware formalization of OOD that accommodates partially observed multi-stage training distributions. Second, we prove a parameter coverage ceiling: there exist practically relevant inputs that no model-centric method (training-time or test-time) can handle within tolerance , for reasons intrinsic to parameter-based representation. Third, we characterize agentic OOD systems by four structural properties -- perception, strategy selection, external action, and closed-loop verification -- and show that they strictly extend the reachable set beyond the ceiling. Fourth, we respond to seven counterarguments, conceding two, and outline a research agenda. We do not claim that agentic methods subsume model-centric ones; we argue that the two are complementary, and that progress on FM-OOD requires explicit recognition of the agentic paradigm as a first-class research direction.
Learning beyond Site Bias for OOD Generalization in Brain Networks
Graph-based learning from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) has shown strong potential for brain network analysis. However, existing methods often degrade under cross-site out-of-distribution (OOD) settings, as site-dependent confounder effects can obscure disease-related connectivity patterns and static functional connectivity (FC) does not explicitly capture informative within-scan variations. In this paper, we propose Cross-site OOD Robust brain nEtwork (CORE), a unified framework for brain network learning across unseen sites. First, CORE estimates site-specific confounder effects and aggregates the resulting deconfounders by cross-source reliability for unseen-site correction, while extracting a population scaffold of reproducible label-associated connections from site-wise residualized FC. It then summarizes temporal variations on scaffold edges into compact descriptors for line-graph modeling. Finally, prior-guided subject-adaptive gating modulates message passing, balancing population priors with individual variability. Extensive leave-one-site-out experiments on ABIDE, REST-meta-MDD, SRPBS, and ABCD demonstrate that CORE consistently outperforms competitive baselines, with up to a 10.3% relative improvement in accuracy. These gains also persist across different brain parcellation schemes on ABIDE.
EGA: Adapting Frozen Encoders for Vector Search with Bounded Out-of-Distribution Degradation
Vector search systems built on frozen vision encoders face queries from unseen classes at deployment, yet existing adapter training collapses under this shift: high-capacity adapters with global contrastive losses silently reassign unseen-class samples to wrong seen-class clusters, dropping worst-case Label Precision by over 40 points below the frozen baseline in our tests. We propose Euclidean Geodesic Alignment (EGA), a residual adapter that couples three principles: zero initialization, local triplet loss, and hypersphere projection. These collectively induce a self-limiting dynamic: triplets that already satisfy a small margin stop producing gradients, so the adapter automatically stops updating where the local geometry is already correct. Our experiments show that at convergence of triplets are gradient-free, leaving unseen-class regions largely untouched while still enabling full-capacity refinement of seen classes. Across five diverse out-of-distribution (OOD) benchmarks, EGA achieves the highest worst-case Label Precision on the four primary splits and a consistent improvement on the fifth. The design also transfers to stronger backbones in addition to CLIP, and we provide an analytical justification linking gradient sparsity to bounded OOD perturbation.
CPCANet: Deep Unfolding Common Principal Component Analysis for Domain Generalization
Domain Generalization (DG) aims to learn representations that remain robust under out-of-distribution (OOD) shifts and generalize effectively to unseen target domains. While recent invariant learning strategies and architectural advances have achieved strong performance, explicitly discovering a structured domain-invariant subspace through second-order statistics remains underexplored. In this work, we propose CPCANet, a novel framework grounded in Common Principal Component Analysis (CPCA), which unrolls the iterative Flury-Gautschi (FG) algorithm into fully differentiable neural layers. This approach integrates the statistical properties of CPCA into an end-to-end trainable framework, enforcing the discovery of a shared subspace across diverse domains while preserving interpretability. Experiments on four standard DG benchmarks demonstrate that CPCANet achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance in zero-shot transfer. Moreover, CPCANet is architecture-agnostic and requires no dataset-specific tuning, providing a simple and efficient approach to learning robust representations under distribution shift. Code is available at https://github.com/wish44165/CPCANet.
Replay-Based Continual Learning for Physics-Informed Neural Operators
Neural operators generally demonstrate strong predictive performance on in-distribution (ID) problems. However, a critical limitation of existing methods is their significant performance degradation when encountering out-of-distribution (OOD) data. To address this issue, this work introduces continual learning into physics-informed neural operators, with particular emphasis on neural operators built upon the Transolver architecture, and proposes a simple yet effective replay-based continual learning strategy. The proposed method is fully physics-informed and does not require labeled data, relying solely on input fields together with physical constraints for training. When new OOD data become available, a small number of past data are incorporated through a distillation-based constraint to preserve previously acquired knowledge and alleviate catastrophic forgetting. Meanwhile, a transfer learning LoRA is employed to enable rapid adaptation to the new data. The proposed framework is systematically validated on three representative physical problems, including the Darcy flow problem in fluid mechanics, a two-dimensional hyperelastic brain tumor problem in biomechanics, and a three-dimensional linear elastic Triply Periodic Minimal Surfaces problem in solid mechanics. The results demonstrate that the proposed method effectively mitigates catastrophic forgetting on previously learned data while maintaining fast adaptability to new data. Compared with conventional joint training strategies, the proposed method significantly improves training efficiency while reducing additional memory usage and computational cost.
Critical Windows of Complexity Control: When Transformers Decide to Reason or Memorize
Recent work has shown that Transformers' compositional generalization is governed by \emph{complexity control}, initialization scale and weight decay, which steers training toward low-complexity reasoning solutions rather than high-complexity memorization. Existing analyses, however, treat complexity control as a single static hyperparameter choice, leaving open \emph{when} during training this control is actually decisive. We show that the memorization-versus-reasoning fate of a Transformer is determined within a sharp, identifiable window of training. On a controlled compositional task we find that (i)~weight decay applied for a single 25%-of-training window matches full-training weight decay in out-of-distribution (OOD) accuracy ( vs ); (ii)~holding total regularization budget constant, placing it in the middle of training yields higher OOD accuracy than placing it early; (iii)~the boundary of the critical window is remarkably sharp, window onset shifted by as little as optimization steps causes mean OOD to jump from chance () to reasoning-regime (); (iv)~the window's position depends systematically on initialization scale, but the basin of attraction for reasoning solutions \emph{shrinks} at small initialization, contradicting the prevailing recommendation that smaller initialization is uniformly better. We further show that the critical-window phenomenon is task-specific: it does not appear on grokking with modular arithmetic, where properly tuned constant weight decay matches scheduled weight decay.
Perturbation is All You Need for Extrapolating Language Models
We introduce a simple yet powerful framework for training large language models. In contrast to the standard autoregressive next-token prediction based on an exact prefix, we propose a perturbation-based procedure that first transforms the prefix into a semantic neighbor and then conditions on this perturbed variant for next-token prediction. This yields a hierarchical model with a pre-post-additive noise structure. Within this framework, we develop a rigorous theory of extrapolability, namely, the capacity of a model class to make reliable predictions for token sequences that lie outside the empirical support of the training corpus. We evaluate the finite-sample performance of the proposed procedure using both synthetic and real-world language data. Results show that the proposed method consistently improves out-of-support prediction while maintaining competitive in-support performance, demonstrating that perturbation offers a practical route to language modeling.
Task Vector Geometry Underlies Dual Modes of Task Inference in Transformers
Transformers are effective at inferring the latent task from context via two inference modes: recognizing a task seen during training, and adapting to a novel one. Recent interpretability studies have identified from middle-layer representations task-specific directions, or task vectors, that steer model behavior. However, a lack of rigorous foundations hinders connecting internal representations to external model behavior: existing work fails to explain how task-vector geometry is shaped by the training distribution, and what geometry enables out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization. In this paper, we study these questions in a controlled synthetic setting by training small transformers from scratch on latent-task sequence distributions, which allows a principled mathematical characterization. We show that two inference modes can coexist within a single model. In-distribution behavior is governed by Bayesian task retrieval, implemented internally through convex combinations of learned task vectors. OOD behavior, by contrast, arises through extrapolative task learning, whose representations occupy a subspace nearly orthogonal to the task-vector subspace. Taken together, our results suggest that task-vector geometry, training distributions, and generalization behaviors are closely related.
RFPrompt: Prompt-Based Expert Adaptation of the Large Wireless Model for Modulation Classification
Automatic modulation classification (AMC) in real-world deployments demands robustness to distribution shifts arising from hardware impairments, unseen propagation environments, and recording conditions never encountered during training. Although wireless foundation models offer a promising starting point for robust RF representation learning, an important open question is how to adapt them efficiently to out-of-distribution (OOD) downstream tasks without overwriting the structure learned during large-scale pre-training. In this paper, we investigate prompt-based adaptation as a general mechanism for OOD transfer in wireless foundation models. We propose RFPrompt, a parameter-efficient framework that introduces learnable deep prompt tokens while keeping the pretrained backbone frozen, enabling task-specific adaptation with minimal trainable parameters. We instantiate and evaluate this approach on the Large Wireless Model (LWM), a mixture-of-experts wireless foundation model, and study its behavior under both standard and OOD modulation-classification settings. Results show that prompt-based adaptation consistently improves robustness under distribution shift and limited supervision, particularly on real-world over-the-air IQ data, while preserving strong parameter efficiency. These findings suggest that prompt learning is a practical and effective strategy for adapting wireless foundation models to challenging downstream RF environments.
Extrapolation in Statistical Learning with Extreme Value Theory
Extreme value theory provides rigorous theory and statistical tools for extrapolation in machine learning, particularly in settings where traditional methods struggle due to data scarcity in the tails. A broad range of tasks benefit from these advances, including regression and classification beyond the training data, extreme quantile regression, supervised and unsupervised dimension reduction, generative artificial intelligence and anomaly detection. This review synthesizes recent developments in these fields at the intersection of statistical learning and extreme value theory, with a focus on principled methods based on asymptotically motivated representations of the tail of univariate and multivariate distributions. We consider different theoretical frameworks for both asymptotically dependent and independent data and discuss how they translate into efficient statistical methods for extrapolation to extreme regions. By addressing both theoretical and practical aspects, we offer a comprehensive overview of the state-of-the-art in this quickly evolving field, and identify promising directions for future research.
Omni-Fake: Benchmarking Unified Multimodal Social Media Deepfake Detection
Multimodal deepfakes are proliferating on social media and threaten authenticity, information integrity, and digital forensics. Existing benchmarks are constrained by their single-modality scope, simplified manipulations, or unrealistic distributions, which limit their ability to assess real-world robustness. To address these limitations, we present Omni-Fake, a unified omni-dataset for comprehensive multimodal deepfake detection in social-media settings. It comprises Omni-Fake-Set, a large-scale, high-quality dataset with 1M+ samples, and Omni-Fake-OOD, an out-of-distribution benchmark with 200k+ samples intentionally excluded from training to evaluate generalization. Omni-Fake spans four modalities (image, audio, video, and audio-video talking head) and supports a joint detection-localization-explanation protocol. On top of Omni-Fake, we further propose Omni-Fake-R1, a reinforcement-learning-driven multimodal detector that adaptively integrates visual and auditory cues and outputs structured decisions, localization, and natural-language explanations. Extensive experiments show significant gains in detection accuracy, cross-modal generalization, and explainability over state-of-the-art baselines. Project page: https://tianxiao1201.github.io/omni-fake-project-page/
Perturb and Correct: Post-Hoc Ensembles using Affine Redundancy
Models that are nearly indistinguishable on in-distribution data can behave very differently under distribution shift. We introduce Perturb-and-Correct (P&C), a post-hoc method for constructing epistemically diverse predictors from a single pretrained network. P&C applies random hidden-layer perturbations with a least-squares correction in the following affine layer, producing predictors that agree on calibration data while remaining free to disagree away from it. We analyze this mechanism through the post-correction residual that remains in the activation of the layer corrected using calibration data, yielding a leverage-based preservation bound and a covariance interpretation of ensemble disagreement. Empirically, P&C achieves a strong ID/OOD tradeoff across MuJoCo dynamics prediction and CIFAR-10 OOD detection, and scales to a pretrained ViT-B/16 on ImageNet-1K. In matched comparisons with Deep Ensembles, P&C substantially reduces construction and storage cost. Our findings highlight the potential in further exploiting overparameterization as a strength of deep learning models.
Beyond the Training Distribution: Mapping Generalization Boundaries in Neural Program Synthesis
Large-scale transformers achieve impressive results on program synthesis benchmarks, yet their true generalization capabilities remain obscured by data contamination and opaque training corpora. To rigorously assess whether models are truly generalizing or merely retrieving memorized templates, we introduce a strictly controlled program synthesis environment based on a domain-specific arithmetic grammar. By systematically enumerating and evaluating millions of unique programs, we construct interpretable syntactic and semantic metric spaces. This allows us to precisely map data distributions and sample train and test splits that isolate specific distributional shifts. Our experiments demonstrate that optimizing density generalization -- through diverse sampling over both semantic and syntactic spaces -- induces robust out-of-distribution generalization. Conversely, evaluating support generalization reveals that transformers severely struggle with extrapolation, experiencing a performance drop of over 30% when forced to generate syntactically novel programs. While steadily scaling up compute improves generalization, the gains follow a strictly log-linear relationship. We conclude that robust generalization requires maximizing training diversity across multiple manifolds, and our findings indicate the necessity for novel search-based approaches to break through current log-linear scaling bottlenecks.
Detecting is Easy, Adapting is Hard: Local Expert Growth for Visual Model-Based Reinforcement Learning under Distribution Shift
Visual model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) agents can perform well on the training distribution, but often break down once the test environment shifts. In visual MBRL, recognizing that a shift has occurred is often the easier part; the harder part is turning that recognition into useful action-level correction. We study several ways of responding to shift, including planning penalties, direct fine-tuning, global residual correction, and coarse gating. In our experiments, these approaches either do not improve closed-loop control or hurt in-distribution (ID) performance. Based on these negative results, we propose JEPA-Indexed Local Expert Growth. The method uses a frozen JEPA representation only for problem indexing, while cluster-specific residual experts add local action corrections on top of the original controller. The baseline controller itself is not modified. Using paired-bootstrap evaluation, we find that the original naive-preference variant is not stable under stricter testing. In contrast, the harder-pair variant produces statistically significant OOD improvements on all four evaluated shift conditions while preserving ID performance. The learned experts also remain useful when the same shift is encountered again, which supports the view of adaptation as incremental knowledge growth rather than repeated full retraining. We further show that automatic ID rejection can be achieved with simple density models, whereas fine-grained discrimination among OOD sub-families is limited by the representation. Overall, the results indicate that, for visual MBRL under distribution shift, the main challenge is not simply noticing that the environment has changed, but applying the right local action correction after the change has been recognized.
Diffusion Reconstruction towards Generalizable Audio Deepfake Detection
Achieving robust generalization against unseen attacks remains a challenge in Audio Deepfake Detection (ADD), driven by the rapid evolution of generative models. To address this, we propose a framework centered on hard sample classification. The core idea is that a model capable of distinguishing challenging hard samples is inherently equipped to handle simpler cases effectively. We investigate multiple reconstruction paradigms, identifying the diffusion-based method as optimal for generating hard samples. Furthermore, we leverage multi-layer feature aggregation and introduce a Regularization-Assisted Contrastive Learning (RACL) objective to enhance generalizability. Experiments demonstrate the superior generalization of our approach, with our best model achieving a significant reduction in the average Equal Error Rate (EER) compared to the baseline.
SIEVES: Selective Prediction Generalizes through Visual Evidence Scoring
Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) achieve ever-stronger performance on visual-language tasks. Even as traditional visual question answering (VQA) benchmarks approach saturation, reliable deployment requires satisfying low error tolerances in real-world, out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios. Precisely, selective prediction aims to improve coverage, i.e. the share of inputs the system answers, while adhering to a user-defined risk level. This is typically achieved by assigning a confidence score to each answer and abstaining on those that fall below a certain threshold. Existing selective prediction methods estimate implicit confidence scores, relying on model internal signals like logits or hidden representations, which are not available for frontier closed-sourced models. To enable reliable generalization in VQA, we require reasoner models to produce localized visual evidence while answering, and design a selector that explicitly learns to estimate the quality of the localization provided by the reasoner using only model inputs and outputs. We show that SIEVES (Selective Prediction through Visual Evidence Scoring) improves coverage by up to three times on challenging OOD benchmarks (V* Bench, HR-Bench-8k, MME-RealWorld-Lite, VizWiz, and AdVQA), compared to non-grounding baselines. Beyond better generalization to OOD tasks, the design of the SIEVES selector enables transfer to proprietary reasoners without access to their weights or logits, such as o3 and Gemini-3-Pro, providing coverage boosts beyond those attributable to accuracy alone. We highlight that SIEVES generalizes across all tested OOD benchmarks and reasoner models (Pixel-Reasoner, o3, and Gemini-3-Pro), without benchmark- or reasoner-specific training or adaptation. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/hector-gr/SIEVES .
Geometry-free prediction of inertial lift forces in microfluidic devices using deep learning
Inertial microfluidic devices (IMDs) offer low-cost, high-throughput alternative techniques for many traditional particle- (or cell-) manipulation tasks, but simulating them requires being able to predict particle migration, and thus particle lift forces, under a variety of possible channel geometries. Recent work has demonstrated that machine learning models can be used to drastically speed up these numerical simulations, but doing so required training individual models for every unique channel cross-section type (e.g., rectangular, triangular) -- shifting the burden from the simulation step to the training step. In this paper, we develop a novel approach for predicting particle lift forces that contains no explicit geometric parameters. We train a neural network model using a new parameter set and show that while it performs comparably to existing models on channel geometries in the training set, it is able to generalize to unseen channel geometries far more effectively. We show that the lift force model developed herein can be easily transferred to particle tracing simulation software, where it is capable of predicting particle migration patterns consistent with the literature across a variety of channel designs.
Useful nonrobust features are ubiquitous in biomedical images
We study whether deep networks for medical imaging learn useful nonrobust features - predictive input patterns that are not human interpretable and highly susceptible to small adversarial perturbations - and how these features impact test performance. We show that models trained only on nonrobust features achieve well above chance accuracy across five MedMNIST classification tasks, confirming their predictive value in-distribution. Conversely, adversarially trained models that primarily rely on robust features sacrifice in-distribution accuracy but yield markedly better performance under controlled distribution shifts (MedMNIST-C). Overall, nonrobust features boost standard accuracy yet degrade out-of-distribution performance, revealing a practical robustness-accuracy trade-off in medical imaging classification tasks that should be tailored to the requirements of the deployment setting.
Robust Out-of-Distribution Stochastic Optimization
Data-driven decision-making under uncertainty typically presumes the collection of historical data from an unknown target probability distribution. However, one may have no access to any data from the target distribution prior to decision-making. To address this challenge, we propose robust out-of-distribution stochastic optimization, a novel data-driven framework that effectively utilizes relevant data distributions for robust decision-making under unseen distributions. A key feature of our framework is that all data distributions are assumed to be randomly generated from a meta-distribution over distributions. To describe uncertainty in distribution generation, we propose to learn a data-driven uncertainty set in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) from relevant data distributions, with adjustable conservatism. We then incorporate this set into a min-max stochastic program to derive robust decisions. Notably, under randomness of distribution generation, we establish rigorous out-of-distribution generalization guarantees for the uncertainty set as well as the solution. To ease problem-solving in RKHS, an approximate parametrization with a provably bounded suboptimality and a row generation strategy are presented. Extensive numerical experiments on multi-item newsvendor and portfolio optimization demonstrate the superior out-of-distribution performance of our decision-making framework under unseen data distribution, even when only a small or moderate number of relevant sources are available.
Learning Posterior Predictive Distributions for Node Classification from Synthetic Graph Priors
One of the most challenging problems in graph machine learning is generalizing across graphs with diverse properties. Graph neural networks (GNNs) face a fundamental limitation: they require separate training for each new graph, preventing universal generalization across diverse graph datasets. A critical challenge facing GNNs lies in their reliance on labeled training data for each individual graph, a requirement that hinders the capacity for universal node classification due to the heterogeneity inherent in graphs -- differences in homophily levels, community structures, and feature distributions across datasets. Inspired by the success of large language models (LLMs) that achieve in-context learning through massive-scale pre-training on diverse datasets, we introduce NodePFN. This universal node classification method generalizes to arbitrary graphs without graph-specific training. NodePFN learns posterior predictive distributions (PPDs) by training only on thousands of synthetic graphs generated from carefully designed priors. Our synthetic graph generation covers real-world graphs through the use of random networks with controllable homophily levels and structural causal models for complex feature-label relationships. We develop a dual-branch architecture combining context-query attention mechanisms with local message passing to enable graph-aware in-context learning. Extensive evaluation on 23 benchmarks demonstrates that a single pre-trained NodePFN achieves 71.27 average accuracy. These results validate that universal graph learning patterns can be effectively learned from synthetic priors, establishing a new paradigm for generalization in node classification.
Superficial Success vs. Internal Breakdown: An Empirical Study of Generalization in Adaptive Multi-Agent Systems
Adaptive multi-agent systems (MAS) are increasingly adopted to tackle complex problems. However, the narrow task coverage of their optimization raises the question of whether they can function as general-purpose systems. To address this gap, we conduct an extensive empirical study of adaptive MAS, revealing two key findings: (1) topological overfitting -- they fail to generalize across different domains; and (2) illusory coordination -- they achieve reasonable surface-level accuracy while the underlying agent interactions diverge from ideal MAS behavior, raising concerns about their practical utility. These findings highlight the pressing need to prioritize generalization in MAS development and motivate evaluation protocols that extend beyond simple final-answer correctness.
TimeRFT: Stimulating Generalizable Time Series Forecasting for TSFMs via Reinforcement Finetuning
Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) advance generalization and data efficiency in time series forecasting by unified large-scale pretraining. But TSFMs remain lacking when adapting to specific downstream forecasting tasks for two reasons. First, the non-stationary and uncertain nature of time series data lead to inevitable temporal distribution shifts between historical training and future testing data, while current Supervised FineTuning (SFT)-based methods are prone to overfitting and may degrade generalization. Second, training data availability varies across forecasting tasks, requiring TSFMs to generalize well under diverse data regimes. To address these challenges, we introduce the Time series Reinforcement Finetuning (TimeRFT) paradigm for TSFM downstream adaptation, which consists of two task-specific training recipes: i) A forecasting quality-based temporal reward mechanism that conducts a multi-faceted evaluation of the contribution of each prediction step to overall forecasting accuracy. ii) A forecasting difficulty-based data selection strategy to identify time series samples with generalizable predictive patterns and informative training signals. Extensive experiments demonstrate TimeRFT can consistently outperform SFT-based adaptation methods across various real-world forecasting tasks and training data regimes, enhancing prediction accuracy and generalization against unforeseen distribution shifts.
Late Fusion Neural Operators for Extrapolation Across Parameter Space in Partial Differential Equations
Developing neural operators that accurately predict the behavior of systems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) across unseen parameter regimes is crucial for robust generalization in scientific and engineering applications. In practical applications, variations in physical parameters induce distribution shifts between training and prediction regimes, making extrapolation a central challenge. As a result, the way parameters are incorporated into neural operator models plays a key role in their ability to generalize, particularly when state and parameter representations are entangled. In this work, we introduce the Late Fusion Neural Operator, an architecture that disentangles learning state dynamics from parameter effects, improving predictive performance both within and beyond the training distribution. Our approach combines neural operators for learning latent state representations with sparse regression to incorporate parameter information in a structured manner. Across four benchmark PDEs including advection, Burgers, and both 1D and 2D reaction-diffusion equations, the proposed method consistently outperforms Fourier Neural Operator and CAPE-FNO. Late Fusion Neural Operators achieve consistently the best performance in all experiments, with an average RMSE reduction of 72.9% in-domain and 71.8% out-domain compared to the second-best method. These results demonstrate strong generalization across both in-domain and out-domain parameter regimes.
Autonomous Vehicle Collision Avoidance With Racing Parameterized Deep Reinforcement Learning
Road traffic accidents are a leading cause of fatalities worldwide. In the US, human error causes 94% of crashes, resulting in excess of 7,000 pedestrian fatalities and $500 billion in costs annually. Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) with emergency collision avoidance systems that operate at the limits of vehicle dynamics at a high frequency, a dual constraint of nonlinear kinodynamic accuracy and computational efficiency, further enhance safety benefits during adverse weather and cybersecurity breaches, and to evade dangerous human driving when AVs and human drivers share roads. This paper parameterizes a Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) collision avoidance policy Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) utilizing race car overtaking, without explicit geometric mimicry reference trajectory guidance, in simulation, with a physics-informed, simulator exploit-aware reward to encode nonlinear vehicle kinodynamics. Two policies are evaluated, a default uni-direction and a reversed heading variant that navigates in the opposite direction to other cars, which both consistently outperform a Model Predictive Control and Artificial Potential Function (MPC-APF) baseline, with zero-shot transfer to proportionally scaled hardware, across three intersection collision scenarios, at 31x fewer Floating Point Operations (FLOPS) and 64x lower inference latency. The reversed heading policy outperforms the default racing overtaking policy in head-to-head collisions by 30% and the baseline by 50%, and matches the former in side collisions, where both DRL policies evade 10% greater than numerical optimal control.
Spotlights and Blindspots: Evaluating Machine-Generated Text Detection
With the rise of generative language models, machine-generated text detection has become a critical challenge. A wide variety of models is available, but inconsistent datasets, evaluation metrics, and assessment strategies obscure comparisons of model effectiveness. To address this, we evaluate 15 different detection models from six distinct systems, as well as seven trained models, across seven English-language textual test sets and three creative human-written datasets. We provide an empirical analysis of model performance, the influence of training and evaluation data, and the impact of key metrics. We find that no single system excels in all areas and nearly all are effective for certain tasks, and the representation of model performance is critically linked to dataset and metric choices. We find high variance in model ranks based on datasets and metrics, and overall poor performance on novel human-written texts in high-risk domains. Across datasets and metrics, we find that methodological choices that are often assumed or overlooked are essential for clearly and accurately reflecting model performance.
OT on the Map: Quantifying Domain Shifts in Geographic Space
In computer vision and machine learning for geographic data, out-of-domain generalization is a pervasive challenge, arising from uneven global data coverage and distribution shifts across geographic regions. Though models are frequently trained in one region and deployed in another, there is no principled method for determining when this cross-region adaptation will be successful. A well-defined notion of distance between distributions can effectively quantify how different a new target domain is compared to the domains used for model training, which in turn could support model training and deployment decisions. In this paper, we propose a strategy for computing distances between geospatial domains that leverages geographic information with Optimal Transport methods (GeoSpOT). In our experiments, GeoSpOT distances emerge as effective predictors of cross-domain transfer difficulty. We further demonstrate that embeddings from pretrained location encoders provide information comparable to image/text embeddings, despite relying solely on longitude-latitude pairs as input. This allows users to get an approximation of out-of-domain performance for geospatial models, even when the exact downstream task is unknown, or no task-specific data is available. Building on these findings, we show that GeoSpOT distances can preemptively guide data selection and enable predictive tools to analyze regions where a model is likely to underperform.
Exploration of Fast-Slow Latent Recurrence for Train-Short, Test-Long Generalization
We study out of distribution generalization in streaming tasks where models are trained on short sequences but must operate over much longer, unknown horizons under bounded memory. Our focus is on a persistent fast slow recurrent formulation in which a latent state is maintained across observations rather than reset at each stream step. For each incoming observation, the model performs multiple weight-shared latent updates with a recurrent core and then carries the resulting state forward to the next observation. This allows the model to maintain and refine a compact stream-level state without reprocessing a growing context. We evaluate this formulation across symbolic sequence prediction, supervised navigation, and partially observable reinforcement learning tasks. Across these settings, persistent latent recurrence improves OOD generalization over recurrent, state-space, and Transformer baselines. Through recurrent-core ablations, we identify architectural ingredients that are consistently associated with strong OOD performance, including state-dependent transitions and feature-wise nonlinear mixing. Together, these results highlight the value of revisiting persistent recurrence as an architectural bias for more generalizable sequence prediction.
Who Wrote the Book? Detecting and Attributing LLM Ghostwriters
In this paper, we introduce GhostWriteBench, a dataset for LLM authorship attribution. It comprises long-form texts (50K+ words per book) generated by frontier LLMs, and is designed to test generalisation across multiple out-of-distribution (OOD) dimensions, including domain and unseen LLM author. We also propose TRACE -- a novel fingerprinting method that is interpretable and lightweight -- that works for both open- and closed-source models. TRACE creates the fingerprint by capturing token-level transition patterns (e.g., word rank) estimated by another lightweight language model. Experiments on GhostWriteBench demonstrate that TRACE achieves state-of-the-art performance, remains robust in OOD settings, and works well in limited training data scenarios.