Predictability

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2 papers in the last four weeks, down 33% on the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

Jul 6Week of Sep 21

Latest papers 29

Sep 28, 2026cs.AI

Jailbreak Context Lingers: Divergent Safety Routing and Its Cross-Task Predictability in Tool Agents

As large language models increasingly operate as tool-using agents, post-jailbreak safety feedback is often assumed to serve as a reliable safeguard; however, how lingering jailbreak context shapes subsequent agent behavior remains largely unexplored. To systematically examine this dynamic, we introduce a paired continuation framework across 192 parent tasks spanning 42 domains, evaluating 12,148 analyzed continuation pairs (curated from a 12,288-pair initially design) across eight diverse agents. We find that identical safety feedback induces sharply model-dependent behavioral routing rather than uniform protection: redirecting unsafe trajectories toward legitimate completion (\emph{rescue}), sustaining unauthorized execution (\emph{persistent unsafe}), or triggering over-refusal on benign tasks (\emph{collateral loss}). Through layer-wise activation patching, we discover a shared \emph{late-commit pattern} where causal intervention effects surge sharply near the final layers (relative depths of 0.958--0.984) despite an over 30-fold variation in peak magnitude across architectures. Crucially, critical-layer representations correlate with macroscopic routing outcomes, and intervening at these layers causally alters concrete next-step tool actions. Building on this causal foundation, we test whether localized intervention-derived features can serve as predictive proxies for full-trajectory routing outcomes on unseen parent tasks under leave-one-parent-task-out evaluation, finding that they provide viable predictive signals in responsive agents with peak ROC AUCs reaching 0.675 for \emph{rescue}, 0.777 for \emph{collateral loss}, and 0.702 for \emph{persistent unsafe}. These findings establish a mechanistic lens and a predictive baseline for anticipating the safety and utility trade-offs of post-jailbreak feedback in autonomous agents.

Xi Wang, Songlei Jian, Yiming Zhang +5

National University of Defense Technology

Jailbreaks Predictability

Sep 28, 2026cs.CL

Reciprocal Guidance: Orchestrating Draft and Verify Budgets for Advancing the Diffusion-AR Self-Speculation Frontier

Diffusion drafting with autoregressive (AR) verification has emerged as a promising paradigm for efficient speculative decoding. Recent self-speculation models, represented by Nemotron-Labs-Diffusion, further simplify the speculative pipeline by unifying drafting and verification within a shared backbone, while enabling longer acceptance lengths. However, the Pareto frontier between aggregate and per-request throughput remains underexplored. At low concurrency, sequential draft-verify execution requires two model forward passes per round, limiting the effective tokens per forward (TPF). By contrast, at high concurrency, longer drafts incur increasingly expensive computation, forcing individual requests to operate under constrained speculation budgets and preventing full exploitation of the full-backbone drafter. Our key observation indicates that drafting and verification exhibit reciprocal predictability. Draft logits can anticipate likely verification mismatches, while recent verification outcomes predict future drafting utility and suitable block sizes. Building on this observation, we introduce Reciprocal Guidance (RecGuide), a runtime draft-verify orchestration framework that adapts speculative decoding to varying serving loads. RecGuide exploits spare compute capacity through verification-overlapped drafting at low concurrency, while dynamically allocating request-specific draft block sizes as the workload becomes increasingly compute-intensive. Experiments across a wide range of concurrency levels demonstrate consistent throughput improvements over vanilla self-speculation, achieving up to

1.8\times

speedup.

Linye Wei, Shutian Zheng, Haoyu Zeng +1

Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Peking University · School of Integrated Circuits, Peking University · College of Engineering, Peking University +2

Block-Diffusion Drafter Speculative Decoding Drafter Drafts Token Budget Allocation Orchestration+2

Sep 27, 2026math.ST

Identifying the Predictable Drift of a Semimartingale from Marginal Laws

A special semimartingale admits a unique decomposition

X=X_0+M+A

into a local martingale

M

and a predictable finite-variation part

A

. We consider the identification of

A

when

X

is observed only through repeated cross-sections. The estimand is then the projection of the sampled predictable compensator onto the observable feature filtration, namely the current state together with whatever randomness is shared across the population, so that at a fixed diffusion coefficient the marginal flow identifies the drift only up to a Markovian projection. If the drift is an affine functional of an observed lag window, the joint problem is a convex quadratic programme whose solution is the pseudo-panel regression of econometrics. Our principal concern is the case, which we believe not to have been treated before, in which the drift is the output of a hidden linear dynamical system whose dynamics are themselves to be identified from the marginals. The joint problem is then a bilinear quadratically constrained programme, which we solve to certified global optimality by spatial branch and bound; with unpenalised state disturbances and a drift basis growing with the grid it is NP-hard already in latent dimension one, by reduction from

\ell^1

rank-one matrix approximation, whereas the complexity of the deterministic system at fixed latent dimension remains open. A block-coordinate decomposition offers a cheaper alternative. For the estimator itself, we obtain rates at a fixed mesh, separated into Monte-Carlo, estimation and grid contributions.

Jakub Marecek, Enrico Biffis, Abigail Langbridge +1

Department of Computer Science, Czech Technical University in Prague, Czechia · Department of Finance, Imperial College London, UK · Dyson School of Design Engineering, Imperial College London, UK

Conformal Test Martingales Stochastic Differential Equations Markov Predictability

Sep 27, 2026cs.LG

MultiEcho: An Experimental Science of Learned Worlds

World models can be studied as experimental systems with response laws of their own. We introduce MultiEcho, a framework for estimating these laws through controlled counterfactual interventions, delimiting their applicability, and separately testing their physical correspondence. Across nine simulated physical systems and seven frozen model configurations, three-reference estimators predict complete intervention responses and recover intervention parameters. Estimator selection uses discovery data only; frozen fits are evaluated on validation and confirmation contexts. The experiments distinguish response predictability, intervention readability and physical accuracy. Responses can be locally describable yet poorly match physical effects in the same target coordinates. Event-window, visibility and camera interventions reveal conditional applicability, and paired generator configurations show reduced readability under a scene prompt with stronger guidance. Magnitude sweeps expose small image errors alongside large relative effect errors. An exact-reset material experiment separates registered visible-response success from fixed-readout failure on material-dependent futures at matched positions and velocities. Exact finite-scale identities resolve odd and even response errors; first-order remainder bounds specify when refined calibration converges. MultiEcho provides an experimental basis for studying learned-world laws independently of, and in relation to, physical laws.

Meng Zhu, Airui Zhang

SHIHAO XINRUI Group

World Models Predictability

Aug 24, 2026cs.LG

The Axiomatic Trader: Latent Regularity, Information Budgets, and the Canonical Form of a Quantitative Investment System

Systematic trading rests on one article of faith: that regularities found in the past persist. This paper does three things. First, it states that faith as five axioms, each a commonplace practitioners already accept: (A1) a decision may use only what was known when it was made; (A2) what looks like the market changing its rules is the market changing its unobserved state, the machinery being the same in every era; (A3) the future may replay stretches of the past, though not in history's proportions; (A4) states persist for a while; (A5) whatever predictability exists is slight, even for a rule that knows the state. What turns these into axioms is quantification, and the quantities are declared rather than estimated: an invariance defect

\varepsilon_0

, a recurrence bound

Λ

at a block scale

b

(one declaration in two parts), coherence times

\ell_i

, a signal ceiling

ρ

and an invariance ratio

κ

. These five declarations are the whole of the premises' empirical content. Second, it proves that the axioms force a five-stage canonical form for a quantitative investment system -- a declared representation, a predictor within a capacity ceiling, contiguous purged block evaluation aggregated by

\mathrm{CVaR}_{1/Λ}

, a budgeted and deflated search, robust sizing at a fraction of the estimate that the budget bounds -- each stage necessary: a procedure omitting it does strictly worse under a law the axioms admit. Third, it tests the axioms where they are falsifiable, each only at its declared constants, on real market series: no axiom is so far overturned.

Jiayu Li

Algorithmic Trading Axiom Regularity Predictability Token Budget Allocation Persistence

Aug 4, 2026q-fin.MF

From Financial Sentiment Classification to Return Predictability: A QLoRA Benchmark of Large Language Models

Financial sentiment classifiers are commonly evaluated against human labels, but strong linguistic performance does not necessarily imply economically useful return predictability. This study separates these questions through two experiments. First, we construct a unified three-class benchmark from five financial text datasets and compare TF--IDF Naive Bayes, off-the-shelf FinBERT and Financial-RoBERTa encoders, zero-shot Qwen2.5-7B, and QLoRA-adapted Qwen2.5-7B, LLaMA3-8B, and Mistral-7B models. Mistral-7B achieves the best test accuracy (0.8840) and macro-F1 (0.8771), while QLoRA raises Qwen2.5's macro-F1 from 0.7274 to 0.8615. An inverse-frequency class-weighted loss does not improve Qwen2.5. Second, we evaluate economic validity on a temporally separate 2019 Benzinga sample containing 10,637 unique headlines and 13,115 headline--stock observations for a fixed S&P~100 universe. Model probabilities are converted into continuous sentiment scores, aggregated by stock and signal date, and aligned with next-session returns over one-, two-, three-, and five-day horizons. All seven downstream models produce positive but small mean rank information coefficients at the one-day horizon; the largest is 0.0143 for FinBERT. None of the 28 model--horizon tests remains significant after Newey--West inference and false-discovery-rate correction. Portfolio results likewise fail to establish a robust advantage for the best-performing classifiers. The findings show that QLoRA is effective for financial sentiment adaptation, while also documenting a clear gap between classification accuracy and tradable cross-sectional signals.

Fusheng Luo

Johns Hopkins University Baltimore, Maryland, USA

Financial Sentiment Analysis Legal Natural Language Processing Benchmarks Large Language Model Forecasting Predictability Multi-Turn Benchmark

Aug 3, 2026cs.LG

Secrets Everywhere: Auditing Memorization in Mobility Prediction Models

Human mobility prediction models, which forecast the next location in a user's trajectory, are increasingly deployed in urban analytics, navigation, and personalized services. Yet, little is known about their potential to memorize and expose sensitive user trajectories from training data. While memorization has been extensively studied in language models, mobility prediction poses unique challenges: training sequences encode human behavior at various spatial and temporal scales, creating privacy risks at different granularities. In this paper, we conduct the first systematic audit of memorization in mobility prediction models. While prior work has shown that privacy leaks can arise from such models, we systematically assess and quantify memorization risks at scale. We identify key challenges, including the lack of a randomness space, the multi-scale structure of trajectories, and user-specific behavioral diversity. To address these challenges, we introduce a framework to quantify mobility memorization at different levels of granularity: individual locations, anchor pairs, and subtrajectory segments. We also develop user-grounded reference sets to assess how likely a model is to prefer training data over realistic alternatives. Our evaluation across multiple models and datasets reveals pervasive memorization patterns that correlate with user regularity and increase the risk of data extraction at inference time. Our findings call for mandatory privacy auditing in mobility prediction models.

Anne Josiane Kouam, Hristo Boyadzhiev, Konrad Rieck

Inria & TU Berlin Palaiseau, France · BIFOLD & TU Berlin Berlin, Germany

Mobility Privacy Memorization Predictability Readmission Prediction Inference-Time

Aug 2, 2026cs.LG

An Identifiability Theory of Masked Prediction: Mode Blindness and Mask Schedules

Masked prediction learns by inferring missing variables from visible context. When does optimizing this conditional task recover the true joint data distribution? We study this question using an

\varepsilon

-identifiability modulus, which measures the worst-case joint-distribution error permitted by excess risk at most

\varepsilon

. For distributions with separated global modes, schedules retaining large visible contexts can permit substantial mode-weight errors at exponentially small excess risk. An exact information decomposition explains why: for a fixed mask, the loss penalizes only the mode-weight mismatch that remains unresolved by the visible context. For small mode-weight perturbations, the objective's sensitivity is proportional to residual mode uncertainty averaged over masks. Under joint masked-block log loss, low-visibility masks that retain mode uncertainty restore this sensitivity, while positive full-mask probability bounds joint-distribution error in terms of excess risk. We empirically validate these predictions through exact calculations and controlled stochastic optimization.

Yichao Cai, Javen Qinfeng Shi

Australian Institute for Machine Learning, Adelaide University · Responsible AI Research Centre

Identifiability Predictability Spatial Blindness Joint Search

Jul 19, 2026cs.FL

Stringological sequence prediction II: Right-to-left automaticity and related complexity measures

In a previous paper, we began the study of sequence prediction algorithms adapted to stringological word complexity measures. One measure we considered was left-to-right (most-significant-digit-first) automaticity. Here, we show a statistically and computationally efficient algorithm adapted to the

dual'' right-to-left (least-significant-digit-first) automaticity, which turns out to be substantially different for our purpose. We also demonstrate a prediction algorithm for a more expressive measure that we call

arithmetic repetition complexity''. In particular, the latter can be used for predicting the so-called mix-automatic sequences.

Vanessa Kosoy

Faculty of Mathematics, Technion, Haifa, Israel · Computational Rational Agents Laboratory, Delaware, USA

Sequence Modeling Predictability Auto Research Efficient Sequence Mixers

Jul 18, 2026cs.LG

First-Order Predictable but Pairwise Fragile: Local Task Adaptation in Trained Transformers

Task arithmetic, sequential fine-tuning, activation steering, and first-order random search all operate through relatively small perturbations around an already trained checkpoint, and they rely on different local approximations: individual perturbations should be first-order predictable, task updates should compose with controlled interference, useful tangent structure should be stable and possible to estimate, and weight edits should have counterparts in representation space. We measure 8 such properties with the same harness around a multitask LoRA operating point, on 9 transformers (82M-7B), with a prospectively registered property list, thresholds, and test split. We find a shared one-direction validity window up to the tested scale

10^{-2}

, but no universal radius for pairwise composition or update ordering. Along individual directions, changes of the probe loss remain first-order predictable throughout the grid: a perturbation's effect on the loss is essentially its projection onto the gradient, which is also what makes local random search work. Pairwise structure, however, proves to be far more fragile: on over a third of the measured (model, task pair) combinations, two-update order sensitivity sets in strictly inside that window; task-gradient subspaces rotate within tens of steps; additivity under our fixed activation probe fails at full task-vector scale on several models, including both held-out 7B models; and no model median passes the registered global mean-vector weight-to-steering correspondence bar. For two sequential task-gradient steps, the leading order-dependent term is the Lie bracket

H_B\textbf{g}_A-H_A\textbf{g}_B

; its normalized prediction

c(η)=ηκ+O(η^2)

tracks the measured defect at median ratio 1.002, while the onset scale

η^\dagger\approx0.10/κ

spans three orders of magnitude across models and task pairs.

Irina Piontkovskaia, Sergey Nikolenko

1DAIMLD, Moscow, Russia · 2St. Petersburg Department of the Steklov Institute of Mathematics, St. Petersburg, Russia · 3St. Petersburg State University

Transformer Architectures Efficient Task Adaptation Fragility Predictability

Jul 17, 2026cs.CL

Decoding EEG Signals to Explore Next-Word Predictability in the Human Brain

Humans invented reading and have passed down this complex skill across generations through language. This study provides empirical evidence of the neural mechanisms underlying bottom-up (related to high-order linguistic structure) and top-down (related to next-word predictability) processes, which interact to guide comprehension during reading. While previous studies have focused on either the N400 effects of predictability or lexical categories, research on how predictability influences N400 responses across different lexical categories is limited, mainly due to constraints in publicly available datasets. Here, we examine how predictability influences brain responses, recorded at millisecond resolution using electroencephalography (EEG), with a focus on the N400 time window (300-500 ms post-stimulus) across different lexical and grammatical categories. Our results indicate that significant differences in N400 responses between high and low cloze probability levels were more pronounced for content words than function words. Among the two primary content categories, verbs exhibited greater N400 differences than nouns, while nouns carried more distinct information about their predictability than verbs. Moreover, we demonstrate that the decoding technique is more effective than the event-related potential (ERP) traditional analysis in capturing more detailed and distinct representations of cognitive processes over time.

Boi Mai Quach, Binh T. Nguyen, Cathal Gurrin +1

School of Computing, ML-Labs, Department of Computer Science, School of Computing, ADAPT Centre, Dublin City University, Ireland · VNUHCM – University of Science

Electroencephalography Predictability

Jul 11, 2026cs.LG

A Control Theory of Predictability in Latent World Models

Latent world models are trained to predict future states in a learned representation and are then deployed inside a planner that selects actions by simulating them forward. Current practice adopts the prediction error, the single- or multi-step rollout loss on held-out data, as the training and model-selection objective, on the assumption that a lower prediction error yields better control. We show that this assumption is unreliable for a structural reason: a planner does not query the model on the training distribution but on the states that its candidate actions reach, which generally leave the data manifold, so an error averaged over the data cannot by itself govern control. We therefore reframe the objective as the discrepancy between the predicted and the true plan-cost at the plan the planner commits to, and prove that the planner's suboptimality is bounded by twice this discrepancy, whereas the data-averaged prediction error neither bounds nor tracks it. Under a linear-control premise the discrepancy separates into two terms. The first is a small on-manifold residual, on which the predicted and true dynamics agree and which a spectral tax prices through the non-normality of the latent transition operator. The second is an off-manifold divergence, on which an action carries the state off the manifold and the two dynamics diverge; this divergence is the binding term and is bounded by no data-averaged error. Synthetic operators confirm the pricing formulas, and latent model-predictive control experiments confirm the decoupling: across seeds, the single-step validation error is essentially uncorrelated with control success, whereas a fidelity score on the planner-reachable measure tracks it.

Hanzhe You, Yonggang Zhang, Maohao Ran +6

University of Science and Technology of China · The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, HKGAI · Hong Kong Baptist University

Latent World Models Prediction Error Model Predictive Control Predictability Robust Control World+1

Jun 18, 2026cs.LG

Predictability as a Fine-Grained Measure for Privacy

Differential privacy (DP) ensures rigorous individual-level privacy guarantees against even the most knowledgeable attackers, but its worst-case nature can impose a costly privacy-accuracy tradeoff. We introduce privacy via predictability, a fine-grained framework that explicitly incorporates the attacker's core knowledge, a compromised portion of the dataset generated by a stochastic process, and a specified family of queries. Predictability measures privacy leakage as the incremental gain in an attacker's ability to predict sensitive information about unknown individuals after observing the algorithm's output, beyond what can already be inferred from the compromised data. We show that predictability and DP are generally incomparable: each can be small while the other is large. However, in the worst-case regime where all but one individual is compromised, and all binary queries are considered sensitive, predictability implies mutual-information DP. More generally, predictability provides a finer-grained privacy metric tailored to specific sensitive information and specific attacker models. We introduce a general framework, using the generalized method of moments (GMM), to analyze asymptotic predictability when the compromised data is generated by a stationary, ergodic, mixing process. Using this analysis, we derive a predictability-calibrated output perturbation scheme for ERM. Our approach is complementary to DP and can be used alongside DP to provide fine-grained privacy control.

Linda Lu, Karthik Sridharan

Cornell University

Privacy Predictability Indistinguishability

Jun 12, 2026cs.CV

A Qualitative Review of GenAI-Based Methods for Data Generation and Augmentation in Industrial Computer Vision Applications

AI-driven computer vision applications require a profound database to ensure predictable behaviors and performance. Such predictable behaviors are especially important for industrial applications in gaining trust from users. However, such a database is not readily available in industrial applications, and its acquisition is not trivial either. Active learning methods can be applied to ramp up data within a project deployment to iteratively increase the database, and thus the application predictability. Unfortunately, we observe that this often leads to a loss of user trust in the application, which is difficult to regain once lost. This leads to a "chicken-and-egg" dilemma in which neither the database nor the application is developed. In this work, we review state-of-the-art methods and approaches to further boost the database the initial active data ramp-up phase. Here, we focus on recent advancements in GenAI-based data generation and augmentation methods and review their adaptability on an industrial computer vision classification use case. Although we observe a potential for automatic data ramp-up, we also see a domain miss match in between the source (training environment) and target (industrial use-case) - regarding context defined in natural language and object characteristics.

Paul Koch, Paul Hofmann, Ferdinand Waßelewsky +3

Fraunhofer IPK pascalstraße 8-9, Berlin,Germany · Hamburg University of Applied Sciences (HAW Hamburg) Stiftstraße 69, Hamburg, Germany · Technical University Berlin (Tu-Berlin)Jun pascalstraße 8-9, Berlin, Germany

Augmentation Data Generation Computer Vision Active Learning Predictability

Jun 11, 2026cs.LG

Certified World Models: Predictability Across Configuration, Horizon, and Resolution

Scale buys interpolation; structure buys certifiable transfer. A world model's average error does not say whether a particular rollout can be trusted, or for how long. For equivariant latent world models we give a predictability certificate: a computable region spanning configuration, horizon, and resolution. Under exact equivariance, rollout error is invariant over the monoid generated by k primitive symmetries and is certified from the k generators (Theorem A); universal orbit-flatness over equivariant targets characterizes equivariance at the function level (Lemma 2), so an unconstrained architecture cannot certify the property by construction. Approximate orbit-transfer defects propagate by the finite-time Lyapunov spectrum (Theorem B): expanding channels give a logarithmic horizon

T_j(ε)\sim\log(1/ε)/λ_j

, neutral channels accumulate recurrent defect linearly, and contracting channels accumulate a bounded nonzero floor. Exact conserved charge values are certified to all horizons only at zero defect; with one-step defect

η

, charge-value error grows at most as

Tη

. Empirically, on a 40-dimensional learned model a

\mathbb{Z}_N

-equivariant network recovers the full Lyapunov spectrum (

R^2=0.98

-

0.99

) where dense and recurrent baselines fail. A cone/adapted-metric certificate reads an a-priori horizon off the model's own Jacobian, tight on uniformly hyperbolic dynamics and self-abstaining elsewhere; the resulting horizon improves a budgeted re-observation decision. For public non-equivariant world models the tangent spectrum gives a training-free candidate horizon, paired with a held-out divergence cross-check that abstains or corrects when the learned loop over-promises.

Hongbo Wang

Department of Mathematics, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794, USA

Long-Horizon Inference World Models Predictability Horizon Lyapunov Function Near-Earth Objects+1

Jun 9, 2026q-bio.NC

Spatially Masked Regression Reveals Local and Distributed Predictability in Electrophysiological Recordings

Neural recordings are often interpreted as local measurements, yet the signal at any one sensor can also reflect structured activity distributed across the broader network. This raises a basic question: to what extent does an electrode's signal reflect local versus distributed information in the underlying system? More specifically, how much of an electrode's activity is carried by its immediate neighborhood, and how much is embedded more broadly across the array? We address this with a Spatially Masked Regression (SMR) framework that reconstructs each electrode's timeseries from the remaining electrodes while excluding a configurable neighborhood around the target. By progressively increasing this mask, spatial locality becomes an experimental control for quantifying how much predictive information survives after nearby channels are withheld. We apply SMR to intracranial EEG with heterogeneous electrode coverage and to scalp EEG with standardized montages over sensorimotor cortex. Using distance correlation between original and reconstructed signals, we find strong within-subject reconstruction in both modalities, substantial residual predictability even when local neighbors are excluded, and markedly stronger cross-subject transfer in EEG than in iEEG. Masking shows that nearby electrodes contribute strongly to reconstruction but do not account for all of it, indicating that individual channels reflect both local redundancy and broader distributed structure. Surrogates that preserve selected marginal or spectral properties while disrupting phase structure or temporal ordering substantially reduce performance, supporting the conclusion that SMR depends on structured temporal and cross-channel organization rather than on marginal statistics alone. These results position SMR as an interpretable framework for quantifying the balance between local and distributed information in recordings.

Maryam Ostadsharif Memar, Nima Dehghani

Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, IUT. · McGovern Institute for Brain Research, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

Electroencephalography Neural Recordings Signal Reconstruction Predictability

Jun 5, 2026cs.RO

Re-imagining ISO 26262 in the Age of Autonomous Vehicles: Enhancing Controllability through Transferability and Predictability

The ISO 26262 standard defines functional safety for road vehicles through risk assessments based on Severity, Exposure, and Controllability, grounded in a human-driven vehicle paradigm. In the context of autonomous vehicles (AVs), the absence of a human driver necessitates revisiting these principles. This paper decomposes the Controllability placeholder into two auditable evidence dimensions of ISO 26262 by introducing two measurable sub-concepts: Transferability and Predictability. Transferability extends Controllability to capture AV systems' ability to hand off control to dedicated fallback safety mechanisms, while Predictability captures how easily external agents can anticipate AV behavior. Predictability is formally defined from human-robot interaction-inspired principles, and a mathematical framework is provided to quantify it. A designed-versus-achievable gap is introduced to distinguish architectural fallback claims from scene-conditioned achievable fallback capability. The proposed metrics align with ISO 26262 and ISO/PAS 21448 (SOTIF), rendering fallback and interaction claims falsifiable and traceable across ODD slices. These dimensions complement rather than replace existing standards, and the enhancements preserve the structure of ISO 26262 while extending its applicability to driverless automated systems operating at SAE Levels 4 and 5.

Chaitanya Shinde, Hadi Hajieghrary, Paul Schmitt +3

Torc Robotics, Inc., an independent subsidiary of Daimler Truck AG · Reynolds & Moore · Critical Systems Analysis, LLC

Automated Vehicles Controllability Predictability Sparse Autoencoder Features

Jun 5, 2026cs.CL

The Dark Regulome: Disentangling Predictability from Regulation in Genomic Foundation Models

High-grade gliomas integrate into neural circuits through functional synapses with neurons, raising the question of which noncoding elements shape synaptogenic gene expression in tumor cells. The regulatory program written across the dark genome, what we call the

\textit{dark regulome}

, is the natural substrate to probe, and sequence foundation models offer a zero-shot route through in-silico mutagenesis (ISM); yet likelihood-based scoring is tautologically coupled to local sequence predictability, leaving the regulatory interpretation underdetermined. Across three architecturally distinct foundation models (Caduceus-Ph, HyenaDNA, Enformer) and 30,448 dark genome elements at 92 glioma-relevant loci, we introduce a residualization-and-permutation diagnostic that separates predictability-driven from regulation-driven RIS variance. A sharp 10kb proximal-regulatory horizon survives every control we apply, but the LM-derived element-class hierarchy does not: a six-feature linear baseline matches Caduceus top-decile membership at AUC

= 0.985

. Cross-architecture decomposition cleanly separates a sequence-predictability layer (the two language models co-rank long well-predicted transposable elements) from a regulatory-output layer (Enformer alone retains residual cCRE-discriminative signal), with literally zero overlap between the two top-100 lists. Conservation, brain cis-eQTL, and STRING-PPI cross-checks then anchor what biology survives: top-100 elements across all three models are

3.3\times

enriched per model for matching brain eQTLs (

p_\mathrm{emp} < 5\times 10^{-3}

), while a tempting transposable-element regulatory layer and a striking NRXN1+NLGN1 protein-pair convergence both fail proper permutation tests once those tests are constructed. We deliver the diagnostic as a general methodological tool for any ISM-based regulatory study.

Chahat Baranwal, Aaditya Baranwal, Lakshya Nitin Tandon

IIT Jodhpur · University of Central Florida · Northeastern University

Genome-Wide Association Study Transcriptomics Regulation Foundation Model Predictability

Jun 2, 2026cs.SI

Forecasting Conceptual Diffusion in Science: The Case of Quantum Computing

Understanding and anticipating scientific change requires models that distinguish between endogenous consolidation and exogenous diffusion of scientific concepts. Using the quantum computing subtree of concepts in OpenAlex, we construct a temporally resolved concept co-occurrence network and track each concept pair through its upstream citation lineage and downstream diffusion. We train LightGBM models on distributional and diversity-aware features to predict four outcomes: endogenous reinforcement, exogenous diffusion, their ratio, and diffusion entropy. After controlling for overall publication growth of the scientific body, endogenous reinforcement proves largely unpredictable in the primary quantum-computing benchmark. In contrast, exogenous diffusion and entropy are strongly predictable (

R^2

up to

0.78à) and are driven by upstream heterogeneity, citation breadth, and distributional dispersion, as shown by SHAP analyses; replications on robotics, advanced materials, and neuro implants confirm that exogenous diffusion remains the top-ranked target across fields (

R^2_test \sim 0.60-0.87$), while endogenous predictability rises markedly in neuro implants (R^2_test = 0.83), indicating that the quantum-computing asymmetry does not generalise uniformly. Case studies reveal that sharp entropy increases coincide with the opening of new conceptual frontiers, while entropy collapses signal technological convergence or paradigm displacement. These results demonstrate that conceptual diffusion is governed by stable structural regularities embedded in semantic and citation environments. By identifying early diversity-based signals of cross-domain uptake, the approach provides a scalable foundation for anticipatory scientometrics, technology foresight, and innovation-oriented policy analysis in rapidly evolving research fields.

Thomas Maillart, Thibaut Chataing, David Dosu +3

Geneva School of Economics and Management, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland · Open Quantum Institute, CERN, Geneva, Switzerland · armasuisse Science + Technology, Switzerland

Predictability Scientific Discovery Openalex Metadata Diffusion Models

May 28, 2026cs.LG

Learning Transferable Predictability Representations

We study the problem of assigning a scalar score to a short trajectory window that reflects its position on an ordered continuum of predictability regimes, spanning structured deterministic dynamics to unstructured stochastic noise. Existing methods address deterministic-versus-stochastic discrimination within a single system and do not produce scores with a consistent numerical interpretation across systems. We formalize this as ordinal estimation over a five-level predictability ladder and identify a structural source of cross-system ambiguity: ranking supervision alone leaves the score coordinate unfixed up to a monotone reparameterization, which we term the gauge freedom of ordinal scoring. We propose the Gauge-Fixed Ordinal Network (GON), a temporal convolutional model trained with an anchor-and-variance objective that pins level-wise score means to shared target coordinates. GON operates on 2-jet features that expose local trajectory geometry, preserved by smooth flows and disrupted by stochastic surrogate procedures. On five held-out dynamical systems, initializing from a pretrained GON checkpoint consistently outperforms training from scratch across all window budgets, with adaptation depth reflecting geometric proximity to the training family. Zero-shot scores retain ordinal structure at the stochastic boundary, where surrogate procedures most strongly disrupt nonlinear geometry, and pretrained initialization consistently beats scratch across all window budgets. Pairwise discrimination and globally coherent ordinal scoring are distinct properties requiring a stable score coordinate for cross-system transfer, with direct implications for predictability assessment, model selection, and early-warning diagnostics across natural and engineered dynamical systems.

Diyali Goswami, Auroop R. Ganguly

Sustainability and Data Sciences Laboratory (SDS Lab), Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA · AI4CaS: AI for Climate and Sustainability, Institute for Experiential AI, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA · Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA, USA

Predictability Discriminative Single Trajectory

May 22, 2026cs.CL

Metadata Predictability Is Not Evidence Dependence: An Intervention-Based Audit for Weak-Label Benchmarks

We study a protocol-level test for weak-label benchmarks: whether benchmark outputs change when the provided evidence is intervened on. Metadata-only shortcut checks answer a different question, namely whether outputs are predictable from metadata priors. We therefore combine a metadata statistic, the Metadata Prior Dominance Score (MPDS), with an evidence-intervention statistic, ΔEvi, measuring sensitivity to evidence identity under cross-item shuffling. Synthetic HotpotQA gives a constructed counterexample to metadata-only screening: MPDS is only moderate (0.643), yet ΔEvi is zero. Stronger-reader reruns show why calibration belongs in the test procedure: SNLI shows a calibration reversal, reconstructed HotpotQA occupies a question-dominant warning region, and FEVER is a strongly evidence-sensitive positive control across four transformers. The practical lesson is simple: benchmark audits should report metadata-only screening, evidence intervention, and reader-strength calibration together.

Kan Shao

Jinglue Technology Development (Nanjing) Co., Ltd., Nanjing, China

Model Auditing Predictability

May 21, 2026cs.IR

LLM Retrieval for Stable and Predictable Ad Recommendations

Traditional ads recommendation systems have primarily focused on optimizing for prediction accuracy of click or conversion events using canonical metrics such as recall or normalized discounted cumulative gain (NDCG). With the hyper-growth of ads inventory and liquidity with generative AI technologies, the prediction stability and predictability is becoming increasingly critical. Intuitively, prediction stability and predictability can be defined to quantify system robustness with respect to minor/noisy input (ads, creatives) perturbations, the lack of which could lead to advertiser perceivable problems such as repeatability, cold start and under-exploration. In this paper, we introduce a new evaluation framework for quantifying stability and predictability of an ads recommender system, and present an online validated semantic candidate generation framework powered by fine-tuned Large Language Models (LLMs) that showed significant improvement along these metrics by fundamentally improving the semantic-awareness of the system. The approach extracts hierarchical semantic attributes from ad creatives to obtain LLM representations, which serve as the foundation for graph-based expansion, ensuring the retrieved candidates encapsulate semantic variants of an ad, guaranteeing that small creative variants from the advertiser yield consistent and explainable delivery results to the user. We tested this LLM ads retrieval framework in a large-scale industrial ads recommendation system, demonstrating significant improvements across offline and online A/B experiments, showcasing gains in both predictability and traditional performance metrics. Although evaluated in the ads stack, this is a general framework that can be applied broadly to any large-scale recommendation and retrieval systems facing similar scaling and predictability challenges.

Vinodh Kumar Sunkara, Satheeshkumar Karuppusamy, Hangjun Xu +13

Meta Platforms, Inc. Menlo Park and New York, USA

Ads Sequential Recommendation Recommendation Predictability

May 17, 2026cs.CL

Temporal Decay of Co-Citation Predictability: A 20-Year Statute Retrieval Benchmark from 396M Ukrainian Court Citations

Co-citation structure is widely assumed to provide stable retrieval signal in legal information systems. We test this assumption longitudinally by constructing UA-StatuteRetrieval, a benchmark that measures co-citation predictability across 20 annual snapshots (2007-2026) of 396 million codex citations from 101 million Ukrainian court decisions. Using a leave-one-out protocol over the full bipartite citation graph, we find that Adamic-Adar MRR declines 33% on a fixed set of articles (from 0.43 to 0.29) and 47% under a train/test temporal split (from 0.51 to 0.27) confirming genuine temporal decay rather than compositional shift or evaluation artifact. The decay is non-uniform: criminal procedure maintains stable co-citation patterns (MRR ~0.40), while civil law degrades from 0.35 to 0.15, coinciding with the 2017 judicial reform. Hub articles (>100K citations) resist decay, but mid-frequency articles (1K-10K) -- the practical retrieval frontier lose half their predictability. A BM25 text baseline decays even faster (31%), and embedding drift analysis with E5-large reveals a 4.3% semantic shift in how articles are cited, providing a mechanistic explanation for the observed decay. The benchmark is released at https://huggingface.co/datasets/overthelex/ua-statute-retrieval.

Volodymyr Ovcharov

LEX AI LLC, Kyiv, Ukraine

Citations Predictability

May 7, 2026cs.LG

Dual-Scale Temporal Fusion Reveals Structured Predictability in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Temperature Prediction

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) temperature forecasts, spanning several weeks to a few months, are critically needed in agriculture practice, energy planning, and extreme-weather induced risk management, yet their reliability varies substantially across seasons and regions. Forecast skill is often attributed primarily to lead time, but this perspective does not fully explain the spatiotemporal patterns of predictability. Here we show that S2S predictability is organized across interacting temporal components, spatial heterogeneity, and large-scale pattern coherence, and that this structure can be explicitly characterized and exploited. We develop a dual-scale learning framework that separates calendar-aligned historical climate context from lead-time matched recent weather evolution, combining them through spatially adaptive fusion to enable stable temperature forecasts across the 30 to 90-day window. The learned fusion weights reveal that the balance between these two temporal scales shifts systematically with season and geography: during winter, interannual context dominates over high latitudes and complex terrain where forecast is the most difficult, while summer predictions reflect a more balanced temporal contribution across the domain. This spatially explicit reorganization of predictability, rather than simple lead-time decay, emerges as the primary determinant of forecast skill within the subseasonal window. Topology-aware structural constraints further improve spatial coherence of predicted temperature fields, stabilizing large-scale pattern organization particularly over complex terrain. These results reframe S2S predictability as a structured, multi-scale phenomenon, providing a more interpretable foundation for improving forecast systems and informing their use in practice.

Elnaz Bashir, Jiali Wang, Lin Yan

Department of Computer Science, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011, USA · Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont, IL 60439, USA

Spatio-Temporal Forecasting Multi-Stream Temporal Fusion Spatiotemporal Predictability Climate

May 7, 2026cs.CL

The Frequency Confound in Language-Model Surprisal and Metaphor Novelty

Language-model (LM) surprisal is widely used as a proxy for contextual predictability and has been reported to correlate with metaphor novelty judgments. However, surprisal is tightly intertwined with lexical frequency. We explore this interaction on metaphor novelty ratings using two different word frequency measures. We analyse surprisal estimates from eight Pythia model sizes and 154 training checkpoints. Across settings, word frequency is a stronger predictor of metaphor novelty than surprisal. Across training stages, the surprisal--novelty association peaks at an early stage and then falls again, mirroring a similarly timed increase in the surprisal--frequency association. These results suggest that the often-reported optimal LM surprisal settings may incorrectly associate contextual predictability with metaphor novelty and processing difficulty, whereas lexical frequency may be the major underlying factor.

Omar Momen, Sina Zarrieß

CRC 1646 – Linguistic Creativity in Communication · Bielefeld University, Germany

Surprisal Implicit Association Test Metaphors Predictability Latent Confounders

Apr 30, 2026cs.CL

On the Proper Treatment of Units in Surprisal Theory

Surprisal theory links human processing effort to the predictability of an upcoming linguistic unit, but empirical work often leaves the notion of a unit underspecified. In practice, experimental stimuli are segmented into linguistically motivated units (e.g., words), while pretrained language models assign probability mass to a fixed token alphabet that typically does not align with those units. As a result, surprisal-based predictors depend implicitly on ad hoc procedures that conflate two distinct modeling choices: the definition of the unit of analysis and the choice of regions of interest over which predictions are evaluated. In this paper, we disentangle these choices and give a unified framework for reasoning about surprisal over arbitrary unit inventories. We argue that surprisal-based analyses should make these choices explicit and treat tokenization as an implementation detail rather than a scientific primitive.

Samuel Kiegeland, Vésteinn Snæbjarnarson, Tim Vieira +1

ETH Zürich · CHI-FRO · University of Copenhagen

Surprisal Predictability Theory Treatment

Nov 30, 2025cs.AI

The 4/ $δ$ Bound: Designing Predictable LLM-Verifier Systems for Formal Method Guarantee

The integration of Formal Verification tools with Large Language Models (LLMs) offers a path to scale software verification beyond manual workflows. However, current methods remain unreliable: without a solid theoretical footing, the refinement process acts as a black box that may oscillate, loop, or diverge. This work bridges this critical gap by developing an LLM-Verifier Convergence Theorem, providing the first formal framework with provable guarantees for termination in multi-stage verification pipelines. We model the interaction not as a generic loop, but as a sequential absorbing Markov Chain comprising four essential engineering stages: \texttt{CodeGen}, \texttt{Compilation}, \texttt{InvariantSynth}, and \texttt{SMTSolving}. We prove that for any non-zero stage success probability (

δ> 0

), the system reaches the \texttt{Verified} state almost surely. Furthermore, because of the sequential nature of the pipeline, we derive a precise latency bound of

\mathbb{E}[n] \leq 4/δ

. We stress-tested this prediction in an extensive empirical campaign comprising over 90,000 trials. The results match the theory with striking consistency: every run reached verification, and the empirical convergence factor clustered tightly around

C_f\approx 1.0

, confirming that the

4/δ

bound accurately mirrors system behavior rather than serving as a loose buffer. Based on this data, we identify three distinct operating zones -- marginal, practical, and high-performance -- and propose a dynamic calibration strategy to handle parameter drift in real-world environments. Together, these contributions replace heuristic guesswork with a rigorous architectural foundation, enabling predictable resource planning and performance budgeting for safety-critical software.

Pierre Dantas, Lucas Cordeiro, Youcheng Sun +1

Dept. of Computer Science, The University of Manchester, UK. · Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Federal University of Amazonas (UFAM), Brazil.

Formal Verification Predictability Convergence

Oct 27, 2025cs.LG

The Benchmarking Epistemology: Validity Theory for Evaluating Machine Learning Models

Predictive benchmarking, evaluating machine learning models based on predictive performance and competitive ranking, is central to machine learning research and scientific inquiry. However, benchmark scores at best measure performance relative to a specific dataset and learning problem. Drawing substantial scientific inferences requires additional assumptions. Adapting ideas from psychological validity theory, we propose validity conditions that make these assumptions explicit. In two case studies---ImageNet and the Fragile Families Challenge---we show how benchmark results can support inferences about research progress and limits of predictability, situating predictive benchmarking as a distinct epistemic practice in machine learning.

Timo Freiesleben, Sebastian Zezulka

LMU Munich, MCMP & MCML · University of Tübingen

Model Evaluation Epistemic State Replication Predictability Validation Scientific Discovery

Date pendingcs.LG

Assessing Predictive Models for Fairness Based on Activity-Space Patterns

Assessing the spatial fairness of predictive models involves establishing whether they are statistically penalizing (favoring) individuals associated with certain geographical locations. Literature on this topic makes the fundamental assumption that each individual is assigned to a single geographical location (e.g., place of residence). However, fairness with respect to the set of regions where one regularly spends time, i.e., the individual's activity space, also matters when fairness is considered. Consequently, we argue that it is necessary to generalize the notion of spatial fairness to also account for such activity-space patterns, leading to the novel problem of assessing predictive models for fairness relative to the movements of individuals. To deal with this problem, we propose an approach that first associates individuals with geographic regions relevant to their activity spaces, considering multiple spatial partitions with different resolutions and alignments, and then employs a suitable spatial scan statistic to assess whether a predictive model is fair based on activity-space patterns. In the experimental evaluation, we study the performance of our approach over thousands of synthetic unfair datasets, showing that it is effective at detecting this new type of unfairness and at retrieving the set of objects treated unfairly, while localization performance exhibits a consistent multi-resolution trade-off.

Francesco Lettich, Mario A. Nascimento, Chiara Pugliese +1

Institute of Information Science and Technologies, National Research Council, Pisa, Italy · Department of Computing Science, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada · Institute of Informatics and Telematics, National Research Council, Pisa, Italy

Algorithmic Fairness Predictability Heterogeneity Localization Synthetic Data Motion