Preliminary Study
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6 papers in the last four weeks, with none the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.
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Adapting large language model agents during deployment requires not only retaining past experience, but also turning new observations into timely guidance. Many test-time learning methods, however, acquire knowledge from completed episodes. Feedback from an ongoing interaction may therefore not be distilled into knowledge soon enough to help the next decision. Acquiring knowledge at the granularity of individual transitions could reduce this delay, but raises a separate challenge: a rule that is useful within one episode may not be reliable enough to guide future episodes. Waiting for validation can forfeit immediate benefits, whereas unrestricted reuse can propagate accidental or misattributed guidance. We introduce StepLearn, a nonparametric framework that separates immediate use from persistent trust. It turns informative transitions into hypotheses that can guide the next step, while requiring prospective validation before reuse across episodes. Their predicted effects are checked against subsequent observations outside the source episodes, and only sufficiently supported hypotheses become available for persistent guidance. This process updates external knowledge while keeping all model parameters fixed. Over five rounds on WebArena-Lite and ALFWorld, StepLearn achieves average success rates of 59.9% and 84.0% with GPT-5-mini, and 57.8% and 88.1% with Qwen3.5-35B-A3B, respectively. It outperforms EvoTest, the strongest baseline, by 2.2-12.7 percentage points across the four settings. Learning dynamics further shows that these gains are not restricted to the final repetition, with advantages already present on first task attempts in most settings.
Jev in Medicine: A Benchmark Evaluation
Jev is a non-generative "System One" model that assigns probabilities to predefined answer options and cannot answer outside them. Its accuracy and calibration on medical question-answering and case-based diagnostic-reasoning tasks are unknown. We evaluated Jev 1.13 on four medical benchmarks: MetaMedQA, PubMedQA, DiagnosisArena-MCQ and the NEJM Case Challenges. GPT-6 Sol, with (medium) and without reasoning, was the reference. The primary outcome was top-1 accuracy; key secondary outcomes were calibration, selective prediction and recognition of unanswerable questions. All 8,469 requests returned a valid answer. Jev's accuracy was similar to that of GPT-6 Sol with medium reasoning on PubMedQA (78.4% vs 78.2%;), lower on MetaMedQA (74.8% vs 82.7%) and much lower on DiagnosisArena-MCQ (59.8% vs 82.4%;) and the NEJM cases (61.8% vs 82.4%). On MetaMedQA, Jev's probabilities were the best calibrated (expected calibration error 0.063 vs 0.146), and its answers with a probability of at least 0.9 (52.9% of questions) were 93.4% accurate, but GPT-6 Sol was as accurate when it accepted a similar proportion of questions. On DiagnosisArena-MCQ, Jev's probabilities discriminated poorly (AUROC 0.645 vs 0.768). Of the 162 questions whose correct answer was "I don't know or cannot answer", Jev chose that option for 10.5% (GPT-6 Sol, 8.6%). Median latency was 0.27-0.31 s; all 2,823 items cost USD 0.08. Jev was fast and inexpensive, and its accuracy was similar to that of a frontier LLM on research abstracts but lower on examination questions and much lower on complex diagnostic cases. Task-specific validation is required before clinical use.
Predicting Emerging Topics from Outliers: A Prospective Study of Weak Signals in Embedding Space
Some documents that embedding-based topic models initially classify as noise later become founding members of emerging topics. At publication time, however, they appear as scattered points in embedding space and are difficult to distinguish from ordinary noise without the benefit of hindsight. We study whether such anticipatory outliers can be predicted prospectively, using only information available when a document first appears. We derive labels from the subsequent trajectories of outlier documents, distinguishing those that anticipate new topics from those that reinforce existing topics or remain isolated, and estimate label confidence through agreement across multiple embedding models. On two French news corpora, anticipatory outliers prove predictable at publication time. Under cross-validation, rises from about 0.77 over the full eligible population to above 0.90 on high-consensus subsets, and remains at 0.76-0.80 under a strictly chronological evaluation. Predictive performance is driven mainly by geometric features capturing each outlier's position in embedding space.
Designing and Analysing Argument Mining Pipelines: Towards a Comprehensive Assessment
Argument Mining (AM) transforms natural language into its underlying argument structures. This transformation is typically realized through a sequence of AM tasks that form an end-to-end AM pipeline. However, AM approaches often differ in how they conceptualize these tasks, making direct comparisons between them difficult and opaque. This calls for a more nuanced, task-level analysis of AM approaches to enable clearer comparison and assessment. This work presents a preliminary meta-study that systematically reviews several state-of-the-art end-to-end AM works and analyzes their pipelines through a triple-perspective framework---a linguistic, computational and domain perspective---to understand how the pipelines model arguments as structures, computes them, and integrates domain knowledge. We further propose a general design to the linguistic and computational perspectives, illustrating how key AM tasks are designed for modeling and computation of argument structures. Our proposed framework lays the groundwork for methodology-centered descriptions across AM approaches, facilitating deeper understanding and more systematic comparisons in future research.
Are LLMs Good Financial User Simulators? A Preliminary Study
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as user simulators, but their ability to reproduce evolving individual financial decisions remains unclear. We present a preliminary study in a controlled paper-trading environment with 120 volunteers. Participants used non-redeemable virtual funds under real-time market conditions; no real brokerage accounts, real-money positions, or real transaction records were accessed. Given only information available before a prediction cutoff, a simulator predicts the participant's next-trading-day action, traded security, and transaction quantity. We evaluate temporally aligned rolling predictions and compare settings with and without point-in-time market information. Market context improves action and ticker prediction in the controlled ablation, while transaction sizing remains difficult. We also observe systematic behavioral compression: models overproduce hold actions, underpredict sell decisions, and simplify multi-security transactions. These results provide an initial empirical characterization and motivate larger-scale evaluation of individual, temporal, and portfolio-level behavioral fidelity.
Information Specialization and Constrained Synthesis in Multi-Agent LLM Forecasting: A Prospective Live-Study of the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Large language models are being organized into multi-agent systems with specialized roles, but whether such specialization produces distinct forecasts and whether subsequent synthesis improves utility remains unclear. In this study, we carried out a live, prospective evaluation over the final 56 matches of the information-dense 2026 FIFA World Cup, keeping a frontier foundation model constant while assigning two primary forecasting agents contrasting specialist roles: a quantitative specialist focusing on structured performance statistics and a news specialist focusing on current injuries, tactics and information from press conferences. Their forecasts were then reviewed by a separate critic before being combined by a meta-agent, resulting in a sequential four-agent model. Forecasts from the betting market served as an external benchmark. The news specialist obtained the highest mean probability-weighted Top-3 utility and matched the betting market in Top-3 exact-score hits. Nevertheless, the two specialist forecasters agreed on at least two of the three scorelines in 50 out of 56 matches, and the meta-agent never generated more than one scoreline outside the specialists' forecast set. These findings show that rapidly changing, unstructured information can provide a valuable forecasting signal alongside structured statistics, whereas adding critic and meta-agent stages does not necessarily create complementary information or improve on the strongest specialist.
Can LLMs Extract Architectural Design Decisions from Source Code Commits? - A Preliminary Exploratory Study
Context: Architectural Design Decisions (ADDs) capture the rationale behind the structure and evolution of software systems but are rarely documented explicitly, and are often hidden inside source code commits. Recovering them is important for Architectural Knowledge Management (AKM). Problem: Extracting ADDs from commits is challenging due to their implicit and unstructured nature. Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown strong capabilities in understanding code and text, yet their effectiveness for this task remains underexplored. Study: We present a preliminary study using four LLMs (Gemini 3 Pro, DeepSeek R1, Kimi K2, Qwen3) with zeroshot and fewshot prompting on 30 developer-written ADDs from open-source projects. We score outputs with ROUGE-L, BLEU, METEOR, and BERTScore, and one author manually reviews the Gemini outputs. Results: All models reach a BERT-F1 above 0.81, and fewshot prompting improves alignment (Gemini BERT-F1: 0.828 to 0.847). However, the generated ADDs are often too long, implementation-focused, and miss the rationale behind the decision. This highlights opportunities for architecture-aware LLM systems and automated AKM.
Preliminary Guidelines for Using and Evaluating GenAI Tools to Support Systematic Literature Reviews
Context: Generative AI (GenAI) and Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used for academic tasks in software engineering and beyond, including systematic literature reviews (SLRs). However, while capable of summarizing text, there is no guarantee they can meet the rigour, reliability, and transparency that SLRs require. Objectives: To support researchers intending to conduct SLRs using GenAI or those conducting empirical studies evaluating how well GenAI supports SLR tasks. Methods: First, we conducted a rapid review to identify studies that propose guidelines for evaluating and using GenAI and LLMs to support SLRs. Second, we drew on thought experiments, relevant guidance from the literature, and our own experience conducting SLRs and evaluating tools to develop recommendations for how to use and assess GenAI in the context of SLRs. Results: We discuss the problems researchers face when evaluating GenAI for SLRs. We identify and explain process issues to consider when planning, conducting, and reporting both SLRs using GenAI and evaluations of GenAI tools. Finally, we summarize our results as a set of process recommendations, which we name GUEST (GenAI Use and Evaluation in SLR Tasks). Conclusion: We argue that GenAI requires human oversight and is not currently capable of unsupervised systematic studies. However, it offers the prospect of cost-effective assistance for some repetitive tasks and for additional validation of some complex tasks. Our GUEST recommendations should help software engineering researchers both to conduct and report trustworthy SLRs using GenAI and to provide rigorous independent evaluation studies.
Towards Reducing Foreign Language Anxiety Using Level-Appropriate Embodied Conversational Agents
Foreign language anxiety (FLA) can be a major barrier to second language acquisition (SLA), especially in conversational contexts. With the proliferation of large language models (LLMs) throughout all areas of life, recent work suggests that interacting with LLM agents can be instrumental within the field of SLA and foreign language education, especially for reducing FLA. Related work also suggests that linguistic demands and task complexity can be predictors of FLA, implying that the use of demanding, complex language could lead to learners experiencing higher FLA. In this paper, we propose a novel multi-agent embodied conversational system that generates level-appropriate dialogue for English language learners. These levels are based on those defined by the Common European Framework of Reference for Languages (CEFR) to describe non-native listener and speaker proficiency. Using a "generate-evaluate-regenerate" loop with multiple LLM agents and a level classifier, it achieves a desired simplicity that is adaptive to the user's proficiency level. We also share the results of a preliminary small-sample pilot study that tested this system with Japanese university students, to see whether it would yield lower FLA levels than an unsimplified embodied conversational agent. Analysis of conversational output showed that 87.4% of dialogue sentences generated by the proposed multi-agent system fell within one predicted CEFR level of the learner's self-assessed proficiency, compared to 54.1% for the unsimplified agent. This suggests that the novel system is better able to produce output at an appropriate level for the learner. Though this study did not yield statistically significant evidence that the system reduces FLA levels in Japanese learners of English, likely due to a small sample size, it provides usability findings and culturally-informed design insights that will inform future study.
Committed Before Reasoning: Behavioral Reproduction and Preliminary Activation-Level Evidence of Answer Pre-Commitment in an Open-Weight LLM
Chat models sometimes commit to an answer and then produce reasoning that justifies it rather than deriving it -- even when the answer contradicts a task premise. We study a minimal probe: "I want to wash my car. The car wash is 100 meters away. Should I walk or drive?" Only drive works (the car must be at the car wash), yet models overwhelmingly recommend walking. (1) Behavioral reproduction: on Qwen3-8B across five system-prompt conditions (210 rollouts), the wrong commitment occurs in 85-100% of sampled rollouts per condition and 100% of greedy rollouts, in both thinking and non-thinking modes; a 4,096-token thinking budget does not repair it. (2) Preliminary activation-level evidence: probing hidden states with a pretrained, training-free activation oracle (no task-specific probe training) at positions before the answer text is emitted, "walk" read-outs exceed a neutral-context baseline (68% vs. 17%; walk-committing rollouts p=.005, drive-committing rollouts p=.005, Fisher exact) -- notably, rollouts that eventually answer drive also read as walk-leaning before commitment (5/6). The oracle's default on unrelated content is "drive" (83%), so the read-outs are not lexical bias; stratifying by literal walk/drive occurrence shows they are not text recovery either (spans containing "drive" still read out walk; in balanced lexical fields, per-rollout walk-majorities beat a per-prompt neutral baseline 15/22 vs. 1/8, p=.01; drive-committing rollouts 6/6, p=.002). Samples are small and the within-rollout positional gradient is not significant (p=.34); we frame these results as preliminary. (3) Methodological: with fixed oracle, activations, and positions, question wording alone moves a positive control from 2/16 (open question) to 11/16 (closed); negative oracle results are uninterpretable without per-wording positive controls.
Distributional Matching for Vector Quantization: A Unified Theoretical and Empirical Framework
The effectiveness of modern visual representation learning and autoregressive models critically depends on vector quantization (VQ), which discretizes continuous feature representations using a learnable codebook. Despite its widespread use, existing VQ methods often suffer from training instability and codebook collapse, arising from gradient mismatch induced by the straight-through estimator and the under-utilization of code vectors. In this work, we show that both issues can be traced to a fundamental mismatch between the distributions of feature vectors and code vectors, leading to inefficient representation and information loss. Building on this observation, we propose a distributional matching framework for vector quantization. We introduce principled criteria for desirable VQ behavior and demonstrate through theoretical analysis and empirical evaluation that aligning feature and code vector distributions provides a unifying mechanism for mitigating training instability and codebook collapse. We instantiate this framework using a Wasserstein-based objective with an efficient closed-form under a mild Gaussian approximation, and further show that a nonparametric alternative based on maximum mean discrepancy yields comparable performance. Extensive experiments on visual tokenization benchmarks support the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed approach.
Towards Agentic AI Governance: A Preliminary Assessment
Artificial intelligence is rapidly evolving from generative systems to agentic AI capable of autonomously planning and executing tasks. Widely characterized as the Year of Agentic AI, 2025 marked accelerated development and deployment, introducing new ethical and governance challenges. This paper presents a systematic review of the emerging literature on agentic AI governance. Our analysis identifies features that distinguish agentic AI from traditional systems and why it warrants targeted governance attention. We synthesize prevailing governance priorities, proposed mechanisms, and stakeholder roles shaping this evolving domain. As an initial scholarly effort, this review lays the preliminary groundwork for developing a structured roadmap to guide responsible and adaptive agentic AI governance.
A Preliminary Study on Explaining Risk of Code Changes using LLM-Based Prediction Models
Predictions by machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) models are often received skeptically unless they are paired with intelligible explanations. In the context of just-in-time defect prediction, highlighting small portions of a software change (diff) -- beyond rule-based lints -- where risk may be concentrated has not yet been extensively investigated. In this work, we leverage attention weights from an LLM-based Diff Risk Score (DRS) model to highlight parts of a diff that the model focuses on when predicting risk. We aggregate token-level attention into interpretable code units (lines, hunks, and files), and present the top-K units to developers as a lightweight form of guidance during code review. We evaluate our approach using expert-labeled changes that have caused real outages. Results show that the highlighted snippets cover expert-labeled outage-causing change lines 53.85% of the time when highlighting the top-2 hunks, while requiring developers to review 26.28% of the changed lines on average. Because attention is produced during standard model inference, the approach is scalable for large development workflows and can be surfaced in the code review UI with low additional latency.
MMLA: Memory-Mediated Learning Architecture for Predictive Dual-State Adaptation
Memory-Mediated Learning Architecture (MMLA) separates slow base parameters theta, a bounded numerical policy carrier Phi, and a bounded authoritative memory M. Predictive Dual-State Adaptation (PDSA) lets feedback update Phi while one problem remains active and lets a trusted lifecycle atomically commit one typed row or exact NULL. Later reasoning may read both states, but their writers, resets, rollback domains, and ledgers remain distinct. Realized futures supervise values only during training; deployment is causal and future-blind. We give conditional theory and falsifiable contracts for reasoning-time updates, completed-segment consolidation, predictive admission, authoritative memory, and dual-state attribution. Assumptions, counterexamples, capacity and cost ledgers, recovery duties, and identifying experiments are explicit; these are not implementation guarantees. Controlled studies show exact lifecycle execution on 300/300 held-out records for each of three seeds, calibrated retrieval gains over frozen-hidden dense and BM25 baselines, and exact typed anchor-filler transport on 240/240 held-out records per seed. These validate restricted components, not natural-language memory management or complete PDSA. Post-training studies retain positive and negative evidence. Later protocols obtain restricted readout progress, but a nine-trajectory comparison finds that matched latent readout, a full-width bridge, and bridge plus frozen text-teacher alignment all fail continuous-event qualification across both task families. A separately adapted text reference and restoration checks pass. At the September 13, 2026 evidence cutoff, no strict policy-only reasoning-time-training effect, predictive-admission oracle margin, learned future-blind admission policy, or policy-by-memory factorial advantage is established.
LLMs as Teaching Assistants for Mathematics Exam Grading: Reliability, and Practical Usability
Open-ended mathematics exams are valuable because they assess reasoning, proof construction, algorithmic thinking, and communication of intermediate steps. They are also difficult to grade at scale because instructors must apply partial-credit rubrics consistently while giving feedback that helps students repair misconceptions. This paper evaluates six contemporary large language model (LLM) configurations, Gemini 3.1 Pro Extended, Gemini 3.5 Flash, ChatGPT 5.5 Pro Extended, ChatGPT 5.5 Thinking, Claude Pro Opus 4.7, and Claude Sonnet 4.6, as grading assistants for an undergraduate discrete mathematics examination. The study compares two grading policies. The BASELINE policy uses a stricter rubric-following prompt that emphasizes explicit evidence and complete justification. The LIBERAL policy was added after preliminary grading showed that the baseline condition sometimes applied harsh point deductions and failed to recognize valid partial reasoning. Agreement with human grading is measured at both the question and exam-total levels using mean absolute error, root mean squared error, normalized root mean squared error, Pearson correlation, and exact agreement. The results show that liberal partial-credit prompting reduces average question-level error for every evaluated model family. ChatGPT 5.5 Thinking (LIBERAL) has the lowest average question-level MAE (1.87) and RMSE (2.53), while Gemini 3.1 Pro Extended (LIBERAL) has the lowest total-score MAE (8.00) and RMSE (10.66). However, the strongest total-score Pearson correlation occurs under Gemini 3.1 Pro Extended (BASELINE) at 0.58, showing that point calibration and rank preservation remain distinct goals. We also report practical usability observations.
A Minimalist Brain-Computer Musical Interface for Real-Time Emotion-Driven Sonification: System Design and Preliminary Evaluation
This paper presents a minimalist brain-computer Musical Interface (BCMI) that functions as a real-time affective sonification system, translating prefrontal EEG activity into adaptive music. Emotional valence is estimated from frontal alpha asymmetry (AF7/AF8) and mapped to musical features such as mode, tempo, rhythmic density, and pitch register through a stochastic generative algorithm. The system integrates wireless EEG acquisition, real-time Python signal processing, and Ableton Live-based music generation synchronized via Lab Streaming Layer. An experiment with 22 participants investigated whether intentional emotional self-induction could modulate the BCMI neurofeedback signal. Linear mixed-effects analyses found no significant effects of target emotion or time, indicating that the frontal alpha asymmetry signal did not reliably distinguish instructed emotional states. Individual differences, including musical training and acting experience, explained more variance than the experimental manipulation, which accounted for only 0.40% of total signal variance. These findings highlight the challenges of using frontal alpha asymmetry as a voluntary control signal for closed-loop emotion regulation and suggest methodological directions for future BCMI research.
Preliminary Insights in Chronos Frequency Data Understanding and Reconstruction
This paper presents a preliminary analysis of the ability of Chronos foundation model to process and internally represent frequency domain information. Foundation models that process time-series data offer practitioners a unified architecture capable of learning generic temporal representations across diverse tasks and domains, reducing the need for task-specific feature engineering and enabling transfer across signal modalities. Despite their growing adoption, the extent to which such models encode fundamental signal properties remains insufficiently characterised. We address this gap by analysing Chronos under controlled conditions, starting from the simplest class of signals: discrete sinusoids generated at fixed frequencies. Using lightweight online minimum description length probes applied to the decoder architecture, we test for the presence and separability of frequency information in the model's internal representations. The results provide insight into how frequential content is captured across the frequency spectrum and highlight regimes in which representation quality may degrade or require particular care. These findings offer practical guidance for users of Chronos in signal processing and information fusion contexts, and contribute to ongoing efforts to improve the interpretability and evaluation of foundation models for temporal data.
Why Domain Matters: A Preliminary Study of Domain Effects in Underwater Object Detection
Domain shift, where deviations between training and deployment data distributions degrade model performance, is a key challenge in underwater environments. Existing benchmarks testing performance for underwater domain shift simulate variability through synthetic style transfer. This fails to capture intrinsic scene factors such as visibility, illumination, scene composition, or acquisition factors, limiting analysis of real-world effects. We propose a labeling framework that defines underwater domains using measurable image, scene, and acquisition characteristics. Unlike prior benchmarks, it captures physically meaningful factors, enabling semantically consistent image grouping and supporting domain-specific evaluation of detection performance including failure analysis. We validate this on public datasets, showing systematic variations across domain factors and revealing hidden failure modes.
Towards a Data-Parameter Correspondence for LLMs: A Preliminary Discussion
Large language model optimization has historically bifurcated into isolated data-centric and model-centric paradigms: the former manipulates involved samples through selection, augmentation, or poisoning, while the latter tunes model weights via masking, quantization, or low-rank adaptation. This paper establishes a unified \emph{data-parameter correspondence} revealing these seemingly disparate operations as dual manifestations of the same geometric structure on the statistical manifold . Grounded in the Fisher-Rao metric and Legendre duality between natural () and expectation () parameters, we identify three fundamental correspondences spanning the model lifecycle: 1. Geometric correspondence: data pruning and parameter sparsification equivalently reduce manifold volume via dual coordinate constraints; 2. Low-rank correspondence: in-context learning (ICL) and LoRA adaptation explore identical subspaces on the Grassmannian , with -shot samples geometrically equivalent to rank- updates; 3. Security-privacy correspondence: adversarial attacks exhibit cooperative amplification between data poisoning and parameter backdoors, whereas protective mechanisms follow cascading attenuation where data compression multiplicatively enhances parameter privacy. Extending from training through post-training compression to inference, this framework provides mathematical formalization for cross-community methodology transfer, demonstrating that cooperative optimization integrating data and parameter modalities may outperform isolated approaches across efficiency, robustness, and privacy dimensions.
Refusal Beyond a Single Direction: A Preliminary Comparison of Diff-in-Means and INLP
Arditi et al. (2024) has shown that refusal in safety fine-tuned chat models is mediated by a single linear direction in the residual stream, recoverable by a difference-in-means (DiM) of harmful and harmless activations. We compare DiM-based interventions (activation addition and directional ablation) with two interventions derived from Iterative Nullspace Projection (INLP)-nullspace projection and counterfactual flipping-on five open-weight chat models, asking whether INLP can match DiM at steering refusal and whether its richer parameterisation yields more tweakable interventions. INLP counterfactual flipping is competitive with DiM directional ablation on refusal suppression, while nullspace projection is weaker on most models. Applying each method at the layer selected by the other shows that flipping's competitiveness is robust to this change while directional ablation's is not, suggesting that DiM's apparent edge is partly a property of its own selection procedure. Restricting INLP to the leading directions of the extracted subspace preserves most of the suppression effect at near-baseline perplexity, giving a tunable capability. Geometrically, the two INLP interventions land in qualitatively different regions of activation space: nullspace projection collapses transformed activations between the harmful and harmless clusters, while counterfactual flipping moves them into the opposite cluster, suggesting that the model encodes the absence of a concept differently from its opposit--an intriguing distinction that warrants further investigation in future work.