Rarity

With limited annotation budgets, choosing which images to label determines how much a model improves. Data-selection methods that use features from a separately trained model, or scene descriptions written by vision-language models, have been successful, but those signals do not directly capture changes in the model being improved. The target model's own internal features reflect what it has learned so far and change with retraining, making them a natural cue for choosing the next training data. However, feature rarity alone does not reveal the errors that matter for performance. Here we link internal features to prediction errors and their expected impact on performance and select images for labeling and retraining without using labels for candidate images. We evaluated the method with an object detector on two datasets and two pairs of random seeds. Adding internal features improved the identification of prediction errors in 15 of 16 conditions. When performance was averaged over successive labeling rounds, the method outperformed selection based only on feature rarity in all four evaluation settings and ranked among the top two of six methods. With other conditions held fixed, performance after retraining was again higher than with rarity-based selection, even though the latter collected more errors. With longer retraining, the proposed method ranked first among six methods. These results suggest that linking a model's internal features to its errors and their effects on performance may help select training images that improve performance, thereby allowing the model's current state to guide which images are labeled next.

We introduce RareTrap, a framework for estimating the probability of severe behaviors in black box large language models (LLMs). A key challenge for probability estimation is defining a tractable distribution over the input space. To accomplish that, RareTrap uses a surrogate LLM and constructs a geometry-aware mapping from a lower-dimensional latent reference space into its token-embedding space to induce an explicit and reproducible distribution over input prompts. A response-level performance function is utilized on the response to quantify behavior severity. This enables sequential rare event simulation that concentrates evaluations on progressively more severe behaviors while preserving probability under the induced prompt distribution, which would otherwise be prohibitive to measure. Across 10 open-weight and two frontier models (GPT-5.4 and Claude Sonnet 4.6), we find that RareTrap successfully induces severe resource consumption behaviors and computes their probability with as few as 200 evaluations. RareTrap provides model developers a principled approach for evaluating language models under a common distribution, and prioritizing alignment effort to improve safety and mitigate risks.

Text-to-image retrieval with frozen dual encoders degrades when the query names a small, visually subordinate object in a cluttered scene: a single global image embedding underrepresents the localized visual evidence. We present MINER, a training-free inference framework that augments a frozen dual encoder's global image embedding with a small bank of region-level embeddings and a hubness-correcting similarity rescoring, recovering visual evidence that global pooling underweights. To evaluate this setting, we introduce ROCS, a benchmark built from high-clutter subsets of Flickr30K and MS COCO whose images are re-captioned to name a single low-salience object. Experiments on CLIP, SigLIP, and SigLIP 2 show that MINER improves retrieval on every backbone, on ROCS and on the standard splits. Analyses show that these gains come primarily from broader spatial coverage rather than precise crop placement, revealing a simple and general way to recover localized evidence from frozen representations. Code: https://github.com/aalquwayfili/MINER. Dataset: https://huggingface.co/datasets/aalquwayfili/ROCS.

Density-Ratio Rescoring (DRR) augments a classifier trained at the original class prior with a survey-raking dual score. Raking reweights the majority sample to match minority feature moments within a tolerance. DRR marginally standardizes the dual and base scores and combines them with a fixed weight of one half, using the fitted dual directly for prediction without resampling or refitting the base classifier. Under exact population matching and a correctly specified log-linear tilt model, the dual equals the log density ratio up to an additive constant. A class-separation analysis characterizes the signal strength and correlation conditions under which fusion improves separation under common within-class covariance. On 24 tabular benchmarks, evaluated over 30 trials and five base learners, DRR at the D=128 random-feature setting improves average precision over the standardized base on every dataset, with a mean gain of 0.034. It exceeds the shared-dual raking-and-relabeling resampler on 22 of 24 datasets, with a mean gain of $0.092$, and on all eight one-versus-rest tasks of a shared gene-expression cohort. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of using raking duals as reusable scores for improving rare-class ranking while retaining classifiers trained at the original prior.

Cross-vehicle federated learning enables vehicles to collaboratively improve perception models while keeping locally collected driving data private. However, vehicle participation is transient, and a vehicle may depart before training converges while permanently taking its local data. When this departing vehicle holds most samples of a target class, the class becomes rare in the remaining FL network, and its recognition can silently degrade as the shared backbone continues to evolve. Recovering the class is difficult since the few remaining samples provide a noisy prototype estimate, while FL privacy constraints prevent centralized access to raw data or per-sample features. This paper presents MPT, a cross-vehicle FL framework that maintains rare-class recognition by reconstructing its prototype at every round from privacy-preserving class-level statistics. MPT combines a barycentric decomposition that tracks drift shared with remaining-class prototypes, a covariance-based residual prediction that estimates out-of-span drift, and an adaptive calibration that weighs the remaining rare-class samples according to their reliability. We evaluate MPT on three vehicle classification tasks and four backbones against representative calibration and drift-compensation baselines. MPT outperforms all baselines in rare class F1, reaching 0.516 on the nuImages dataset with only 1% of rare-class samples remaining, without raw data, per-sample features, or retraining.

Multimodal entity linking grounds entity mentions in text and images to knowledge-base entries. These systems degrade on rare entities, but prior work measures rarity primarily through popularity-based metrics such as pageviews. We broaden this view using knowledge-graph structural metrics that capture how well an entity is documented and connected. These metrics identify many rare entities that popularity metrics miss. Across the resulting rare-entity slices, state-of-the-art accuracy drops by 15.4-39.9%, showing that different rarity definitions expose different failure modes. To address these failures, we introduce a simple, training-free framework in which a reasoning-capable vision-language model iteratively searches and reasons over Wikipedia, gathering evidence dynamically. Controlled experiments show that reasoning and retrieval are complementary. Reasoning alone does not significantly improve accuracy on rare entities. Retrieval without reasoning improves rare-entity accuracy but can hurt overall accuracy. Their combination performs best. On MERLIN, a multilingual multimodal entity linking benchmark over five languages (Hindi, Indonesian, Japanese, Tamil, Vietnamese), our best system improves over the state of the art by 6.9% overall and by up to 23.3% on rare-entity slices. We release MERLIN-Rare, rare-entity test slices for targeted evaluation, with our framework.

AI-assisted facial phenotyping supports rare genetic disorder prioritization by retrieving visually similar diagnosed cases from facial image reference databases such as the GestaltMatcher Database (GMDB). Existing GestaltMatcher-based retrieval frameworks compare each test image with individual gallery images in a facial phenotype embedding space. However, this pointwise formulation does not fully exploit available evidence, because patients may have multiple images and disorders may be represented by multiple diagnosed gallery patients. We propose an inference-time multi-level evidence aggregation framework that improves facial phenotype retrieval without modifying the underlying GestaltMatcher-Arc encoder. The framework combines embedding-level patient aggregation of multiple images from the same individual, patient-weighted disorder centroids, and hybrid individual-centroid scoring to integrate test-patient observations, disorder-level gallery evidence, and local nearest-neighbor evidence. We evaluated the approach on GMDB v1.1.4 across disorders represented during training (GMDB-Freq), unseen disorders (GMDB-Rare), and multi-image patient subsets, using a unified gallery containing both GMDB-Freq and GMDB-Rare disorders. Multi-level evidence aggregation improved mean per-disorder top-$N$ retrieval accuracy across all evaluation subsets. Top-1 accuracy increased from 38.52% to 48.82% on GMDB-Freq and from 19.38% to 23.79% on GMDB-Rare. On multi-image subsets, top-1 accuracy increased from 46.12% to 60.94% on GMDB-Multi-Freq and from 18.54% to 26.71% on GMDB-Multi-Rare. These findings show that inference-time aggregation can improve next-generation facial phenotype retrieval without retraining the encoder, supporting a shift from isolated single-image matching toward multi-level aggregation of patient and disorder evidence for rare-disorder prioritization.

Similarity search over sparse set-valued data is often dominated by frequent background attributes because classical measures such as Jaccard, cosine, and Hamming compare objects through atomic overlap. IDF (Inverse document frequency) weighting partially reduces this effect but remains atom-wise and cannot explicitly represent informative higher-order co-occurrences. We introduce RareSense, a rarity-aware similarity framework for sparse transactional anomaly data. RareSense mines minimal rare itemsets as intermediate structures, derives reliable rare association rules, maps objects into sparse rare-rule profiles, and compares them using weighted Jaccard similarity. Rule weights combine inverse support, confidence, lift, structural complexity, and stability, so that neighborhoods are determined by shared rare evidence rather than uniform feature overlap. We show that IDF-weighted Jaccard is a restricted singleton case of RareSense, and that the induced distance is a pseudometric on the original objects and a metric over equivalence classes defined by identical rule profiles. Experiments across four benchmark families spanning cybersecurity and general categorical domains show that RareSense attains the highest observed macro-average query-conditioned retrieval performance among the evaluated similarity measures. The statistical analysis indicates significant overall differences, with corrected paired comparisons favoring RareSense over the atomic baselines. The gains remain workload-dependent and are strongest when anomalies share repeatable rare higher-order structure. For global anomaly ranking, RareSense achieves the highest observed macro-average performance while remaining statistically comparable to several strong dedicated detectors.

We study imbalanced crowdsourcing with a focus on class-dependent annotator accuracy, a setting that, to the best of our knowledge, remains relatively underexplored despite its importance in real-world inspection systems where the labels of greatest operational importance are also the rarest ones. In this setting, annotators may be reliable on both classes, unreliable on both classes, majority-class specialists, or minority-class specialists. Existing models only partially address this problem: they either capture class-dependent errors but ignore item difficulty, or they model item difficulty without capturing class-dependent errors. To fill this gap for imbalanced datasets in crowdsourcing, we introduce a generative aggregation model combining item difficulty with class-dependent annotator competence. The model allows both annotator abilities and item difficulties to vary across classes. We then revisit Condorcet's Jury Theorem in the class-imbalanced setting. We also show that majority voting asymptotically preserves the underlying class proportion. We evaluate our model on $33$ real-world crowdsourcing datasets, covering multiclass tasks such as images and text, as well as two large-scale regimes: large-scale annotation datasets, with many annotations per item, and large-scale item datasets, with a large number of annotated instances. Across these diverse settings, our model consistently achieves the highest minority recall while remaining competitive in balanced accuracy, making it particularly relevant when rare-label recovery is the primary objective.

Safety-critical perception systems must reliably detect rare object classes within small label spaces, a setting that long-tailed detection methods, designed for hundreds of classes with dense annotation, fundamentally do not address. Open-vocabulary detectors offer a promising alternative, as they use natural language queries at inference time, making prompt quality a first-class lever for detection performance. We exploit this property to address class imbalance: rather than retraining models or collecting additional annotations, we ask whether iteratively refining the language prompts, fed to frozen detectors, can improve minority class detection. We introduce C-GAP Caption-Guided Augmentation and Prompting), a detector-agnostic, annotation-free framework that operates in two phases. First, we establish a composite caption baseline combining per-image scene descriptions with class-quantity context, which we show outperforms scene-description only or class-quantity-only prompts across multiple open-vocabulary architectures and benchmarks. Second, an LLM iteratively refines each image's caption individually, with trials triaged into accept, tentative, or regenerate buckets based on minority-class AP@0.5 against a dynamic threshold derived from the composite baseline. Refinement terminates early once sufficient AP@0.5 gain is achieved. No detector weights are updated at any stage. Our experiments shows that C-GAP improves minority-class average precision up to 53% over the baselines. On COCO, C-GAP improves minority-class AP@0.5 by ~81% relative over the composite baseline (17.69 -> 32.09). Experiments confirm that composite captions provide the critical foundation for effective refinement: using scene-description-only or class-quantity-only prompts as the refinement starting point yields diminishing returns, supporting both stages of C-GAP as necessary contributions.

In-the-wild expression recognition persistently fails on a few rare emotions, and the standard explanation is class imbalance. Through a controlled multi-task study on two benchmarks, we show the failure is instead a property of affect geometry: the rare classes are degenerate on Russell's circumplex, and that degeneracy bounds what any loss or cost can achieve. Our instrument is a circumplex-cost optimal-transport term that prices expression confusions by their valence-arousal distance. The term improves the official score and expression macro-F1, but a control most studies omit shows the gain is not geometric: a uniform cost, equivalent to a generic confidence penalty, matches it on Aff-Wild2 (p=0.625) and significantly exceeds it on AffectNet (+0.057 over base, larger than the circumplex). What the geometry reshapes is the structure of the errors, making them affectively nearer the truth on Aff-Wild2 (p=0.031 against the uniform control), an effect that does not survive on AffectNet, where a visual confound at the far corner of the circumplex overwhelms it. The rare-class failure, by contrast, is stable across both datasets we examine: the degenerate pairs (anger-fear on Aff-Wild2, anger-contempt on AffectNet) resist frequency-based interventions, the transport term, and an action-unit-augmented cost built specifically to separate them. We conclude that progress on rare expressions requires representations that distinguish the classes, not supervision that reprices their confusions, and we provide the controls and metrics needed to tell the two apart.

Active learning is now standard practice in labeling ecological data, enabling ecologists to quickly process large volumes of field data to understand and monitor natural environments. Current practices evaluate active learning inductively, estimating predictive performance on a held-out test set. We argue that this evaluation is misaligned with most ecological tasks, where the goal is to transductively label an entire pool of data as efficiently as possible. We demonstrate that ignoring the human-in-the-loop underestimates the importance of continuing to label, particularly for classes in the long tail which may be of disproportionate ecological importance (rare species, uncommon behaviors, etc.). Our analysis shows that, for this long tail, the transductive objective shifts importance from prediction to discovery: the true challenge becomes finding "needles in the haystack," examples of rare classes that are embedded within dense regions of abundant classes in the latent geometry, which we quantify with a novel metric of sampling difficulty. Finally, to translate these insights to practical ecological workflows, we propose a conservative hybrid stopping criterion inspired by ecological rarefaction curves, and show that combining predictive performance with discovery criteria reduces premature stopping on long-tailed pools, improving rare-class recovery when discovery, not classification, is the limiting factor.

Class imbalance is a fundamental challenge in medical image segmentation, where frequent classes typically dominate training at the expense of rare classes. Loss-based approaches mitigate imbalance by reweighting the per-pixel loss within the batch, while sampling strategies control which images enter the batch. Yet neither explicitly controls which classes appear within the batch, leaving rare-class exposure only partially rebalanced. In this work, we adopt episodic sampling from few-shot learning to promote class-balanced batch construction in a fully supervised setting. We decouple episodic sampling from its conventional metric-learning context and evaluate it in body composition segmentation in CT. We compare episodic sampling against random and weighted sampling on nine muscle and adipose tissues, derived from 210 scans of the public SAROS dataset. Training is performed under full- and low-data regimes, with additional comparisons under matched training iteration budgets. Under full-data training, all three strategies performed comparably (mean Dice 0.882 for episodic, 0.878 for random and weighted). Under low-data training, episodic sampling outperformed random and weighted (0.787 vs. 0.758 and 0.762), driven by a 12-fold difference in training iterations. Under matched training budgets, random and weighted overfit earlier, while episodic improved for approximately three times more iterations before plateauing. Our findings identify the training iteration budget as under-recognized confound in sampling strategies, motivating iteration-aware evaluation protocols for small datasets. Furthermore, the residual advantage of episodic sampling is consistent with an implicit regularization effect of class-balanced batches, offering a low-cost, model-agnostic strategy for class-imbalanced medical image segmentation. Code is available at https://github.com/iasonsky/episodic-sampling.

Cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of death worldwide, and early detection of arrhythmias through continuous ECG monitoring on wearable devices can prevent life-threatening events. Federated Learning (FL) enables privacy-preserving collaborative training by keeping raw ECG data on device, yet standard FL incurs prohibitive communication overhead and standard deep learning models cannot fit on ultra-low-power microcontrollers. We propose Family-Grouped Hierarchical Federated Learning (Family-FL), a three-tier architecture that uses the family as a natural privacy boundary for intra-family aggregation before global synchronization. We further design a hardware-constrained Tiny CNN-LSTM architecture with only 669 parameters, INT8-quantized to occupy merely 4.65KB Flash and 2.95KB RAM, meeting the constraints of STC32G12K128-class microcontrollers. Experiments on the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia Database (mean of 5 independent runs with different seeds) demonstrate that Family-FL reduces communication volume by 76.7% compared to FedAvg while maintaining comparable accuracy. Family-FL-Tiny achieves 91.9 +/- 1.2% accuracy with macro-F1 of 0.483 +/- 0.031, reducing total communication to 0.31% of FedAvg. The model achieves reliable ventricular arrhythmia detection (per-class F1 = 0.80), the most clinically critical abnormality for home-based preliminary screening. These results demonstrate the technical feasibility of privacy-preserving federated learning on ultra-resource-constrained microcontrollers through simulation-based evaluation. We honestly discuss limitations: no hardware deployment, single-dataset validation (MIT-BIH, 47 subjects), reduced rare-class sensitivity, and absence of formal differential privacy guarantees.

Class imbalance is a persistent challenge in visual recognition, particularly in safety-critical domains where collecting positive examples is expensive and rare events are inherently underrepresented. We propose a lightweight synthetic data augmentation pipeline that fine-tunes a LoRA adapter on as few as 20-50 real images of a rare class and uses a pretrained diffusion model to generate synthetic samples for training. We systematically vary the synthetic-to-real ratio and evaluate the approach across two structurally different domains: chest X-ray pathology classification (NIH ChestX-ray14) and industrial surface crack detection (Magnetic Tile Defect dataset). All evaluations are performed on held-out sets of real images only. Across both domains, synthetic augmentation consistently improves rare-class recall and F1 compared to training with real data alone. Performance improves with moderate synthetic augmentation and shows diminishing returns as the synthetic ratio increases. These results suggest that LoRA-adapted diffusion models provide a simple and scalable mechanism for augmenting rare classes, enabling effective learning in data-scarce scenarios across heterogeneous visual domains.

Recent advances in uncertainty quantification for time series forecasting show that conformal prediction can provide reliable prediction intervals, yet standard conformal methods are often inefficient under temporal dependence, drift, and heterogeneous error behavior. Existing methods typically either update miscoverage rates over time or learn unconstrained calibration weights, without explicitly separating two central sources of nonstationarity: smoothly drifting error distributions and co-existing distinct error regimes. We introduce RareCP, a regime-aware retrieval method for adaptive conformal time series prediction. RareCP learns local calibration representations through a mixture of cosine-attention experts that each capture distinct error regimes, while a compact hypernetwork adapts the kernel parameters to track temporal drift. Given a new forecasting context, RareCP retrieves the top-k most relevant calibration examples, assigns similarity weights, and forms a weighted conformal quantile over their signed residuals, yielding asymmetric prediction intervals. The adaptive kernel is trained using a smooth interval score objective, with a parameter-space anchor to a lightweight teacher kernel to preserve stable local representations. On the GIFT-Eval benchmark, RareCP improves interval efficiency over recent conformal baselines and foundation model uncertainty estimates while maintaining empirical coverage. Ablations confirm that regime-specific experts, drift-adaptive kernels, sparse retrieval, and teacher anchoring each contribute to the final performance.

Contrastive Representation Learning (CRL) has achieved strong empirical success in multiple machine learning disciplines, yet its theoretical sample complexity remains poorly understood. Existing analyses usually assume that input tuples are identically and independently distributed, an assumption violated in most practical settings where contrastive tuples are constructed from a finite pool of labeled data, inducing dependencies among tuples. While one recent work analyzed this learning setting using U-Statistics to estimate the population risk, the techniques used therein require the risk of each class to concentrate uniformly, making excess risk bounds scale in the order of $ρ_{\min}^{-{1}/{2}}$ where $ρ_{\min}$ denotes the probability of the rarest class. Such a dependency can be overly pessimistic in the extreme multiclass settings where there are many tail classes which contribute minimally to the overall population risk. Our contributions are two-fold. Firstly, we improve upon the previous work and prove a bound with a sample complexity of the same order as the number of classes $R$, regardless of the distribution over classes. Furthermore, we formulate a different estimator that captures the concentration of the risk \textit{across classes}, enabling sharper bounds in extreme multi-class learning scenarios, especially where class distributions are long-tailed. Under mild assumptions on the class distributions, the resulting sample complexity is $\mathcal{O}(k)$ where $k$ is the number of samples per tuple.

Long-tailed class distributions are pervasive in multi-class medical datasets and pose significant challenges for deep learning models which typically underperform on tail classes with limited samples. This limitation is particularly problematic in medical applications, where rare classes often correspond to severe or high-risk diseases and therefore require high diagnostic accuracy. Existing solutions-including specialized architectures, rebalanced loss functions, and handcrafted data augmentation-offer only marginal improvements and struggle to scale due to their limited and largely deterministic variability. To address these challenges, we introduce a diffusion-model-driven synthetic data augmentation pipeline tailored for medical long-tailed classification. Our approach features a novel inpainting diffusion model combined with an Out-of-Distribution (OOD) post-selection mechanism to ensure diverse, realistic, and clinically meaningful synthetic samples. Evaluated on the ISIC2019 skin lesion classification dataset, one of the largest and most imbalanced medical imaging benchmarks, our method yields substantial improvements in overall performance, with particularly pronounced gains on tail classes with more than $28\%$ improvement on the class with the fewest samples. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of diffusion-based augmentation in mitigating long-tail imbalance and enhancing medical classification robustness.

The most technologically consequential materials are often the rarest: they occupy narrow regions of chemical space, obey competing physical constraints, and appear only sparsely in existing databases. High-kappa dielectrics, high-Tc superconductors, and ferromagnetic insulators are to name a few. This scarcity fundamentally limits today's data-driven materials discovery, where machine-learning models excel at interpolation but struggle to generate genuinely new candidates. Here, we introduce DielecMIND, an artificial intelligence framework that reframes materials discovery as a reasoning-driven exploration instead of a database-screening problem. Using high-kappa dielectrics as a data-scarce and technologically stringent test case, DielecMIND combines large-language-model hypothesis generation for the first time with physics validated first-principles calculation to navigate chemical space beyond known compounds. Prior to our work, only 14 experimentally or computationally validated materials with kappa > 150 were known. Our framework discovers and validates 5 new such compounds, expanding this rare-materials class by a remarkable = 35% in a single study. Among them, we find that Ba2TiHfO6 exhibits a dielectric constant of 637, minimal loss at low optical frequencies, and stability up to 800 K. Beyond dielectrics, this work demonstrates a new paradigm for artificial-intelligence-guided discovery: one that generates a small number of physically grounded, experimentally plausible candidates yet measurably expands sparsely populated functional materials spaces. Thus, DielecMIND points toward a general strategy for discovering rare, high-impact functional materials where data scarcity has long constrained progress.

Detecting fraudulent credit card transactions remains a significant challenge, due to the extreme class imbalance in real-world data and the often subtle patterns that separate fraud from legitimate activity. Existing research commonly attempts to address this by generating synthetic samples for the minority class using approaches such as GANs, VAEs (Variational Autoencoders), or hybrid generative models. However, these techniques, particularly when applied only to minority-class data, tend to result in overconfident classifiers and poor latent cluster separation, ultimately limiting real-world detection performance. In this study, we propose the Causal Prototype Attention Classifier (CPAC), an interpretable architecture that promotes class-aware clustering and improved latent space structure through prototype-based attention mechanisms and we couple it with the encoder of a Variational Autoencoder-Generative Adversarial Network (VAE-GAN) in order to achieve improved latent cluster separation moving beyond post-hoc sample augmentation. We compared CPAC-augmented models to traditional oversamplers, such as SMOTE, as well as to state-of-the-art generative models, both with and without CPAC-based latent classifiers. Our results show that classifier-guided latent shaping with CPAC delivers superior performance, achieving an F1-score of 93.74% and recall of 92.85%, along with improved latent cluster separation. Further ablation studies and visualizations provide deeper insight into the benefits and limitations of classifier-driven representation learning for fraud detection. The codebase for this work can be found at the following link: https://github.com/claudiunderthehood/VAEGAN-CPAC.git.