Spatiotemporal Forecasting

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39 papers in the last four weeks, up 290% on the four weeks before. 0.4% of all new papers.

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Latest papers 279

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HClimRep-Ocean: A Global Ocean Emulator on an Unstructured Mesh
Sep 23, 2026Kacper Nowak, Aleksei Koldunov, Nikolay Koldunov +7Neural Surrogate Modeling Climate Modeling
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany · Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Jülich Supercomputing Center, Jülich, Germany · Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany +3
Disentangling Heterogeneous Traffic Dynamics for Multi-Step Traffic Forecasting via Adaptive Spectral Decomposition
Sep 22, 2026Zijun Huang, Chenrui Fu, Wenhao Wang +3Time Series Decomposition Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Beijing Normal-Hong Kong Baptist University · Dalian Maritime University · National Chung Hsing University
Spatiotemporal Kronecker Covariance Neural Networks
Sep 21, 2026Andrea Cavallo, Athanasios Georgoutsos, Elvin IsufiMultivariate Time Series Forecasting Temporal GNNs
Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands
Taking a Second Look: Correcting Sea Ice Forecasts with Sparse Observations
Sep 21, 2026Tianshuo Zhang, Xianglei Xing, Aowen Yang +4Data Assimilation Spatiotemporal Forecasting
College of Intelligent Systems Science and Engineering, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, China
WPBench: A Comprehensive Benchmark for Wind Power Forecasting
Sep 21, 2026Yuhan Zhu, Jilin Hu, Xinying Cai +7Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Benchmark Design
School of Data Science & Engineering, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China · College of Computer Science and Technology, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China · Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co., Ltd., Hangzhou, China
MGRD: Compact morphology-gated residual diffusion for variance-aware cross-domain neurite forecasting
Sep 21, 2026Tsung Yeh Hsieh, Cosmin Anitescu, Chunghwan Kim +2Surrogate Modeling Uncertainty Quantification
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA · Department of Biomedical Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA · Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA
Hapi: A Multivariable Land-Surface Transformer for Medium-Range Hydrological Forecasting at Continental Scale
Sep 19, 2026Hong Zhang, John K. Hutchison, Rao Kotamarthi +7Time Series Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont, IL 60439, USA
FedeRICo: Federated Region-Influenced Coupling for Traffic Flow Prediction
Sep 17, 2026Fermin Orozco, Man Luo, Johan WahlströmFederated Graph Learning Spatiotemporal Forecasting
University of Exeter Exeter, United Kingdom
OceanMoE: Structured Conditional Sparse Computation for Long-Horizon Multivariate Ocean Forecasting
Sep 17, 2026Yishun Zhu, Jian WangMultivariate Time Series Forecasting Long-Term Time Series Forecasting
Hangzhou Institute for Advanced Study, University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Zhejiang, China · Computer Network Information Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing, China
TERN: A Delta-rule Memory with a Seasonal Reference and Online Adaptation for Epidemic Forecasting
Sep 16, 2026Shunya Nagashima, Yuta FunayamaEpidemic Forecasting Time Series Forecasting
LTS, Inc., Japan
Modular Deep Learning Mechanisms for Auditable Next-Day Wildfire Spread Prediction
Sep 15, 2026Miguel Esparza, Aydin Ayanzadeh Ahmad Mousavi, Ali MostafaviWildfire Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Urban Resilience.AI Lab, Zachry Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA · Department of Information Systems, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD 21250, USA · Department of Mathematics and Statistics, American University, Washington, D.C. 20016, USA
Stable by Construction: Variational Latent Markov Operators for Long-Horizon PDE Prediction
Sep 15, 2026Junyi Liao, Johann Guilleminot, Vahid TarokhVariational Autoencoders Latent Dynamics Modeling
†Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Duke University · ‡Department of Mechanical Engineering and Materials Science, Duke University
AsyncCouple-Flow: Asynchronous Cross-Modal Coupling and Flow Matching for Spatio-Temporal Forecasting
Sep 15, 2026Zhixiang Wu, Yining Liu, Bo Zhao +4Missing-Modality Learning Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China · Emory University, USA · University of California, Berkeley, USA +3
Drift Field Net: Learning Ocean Lagrangian advection fields from in-situ and satellite observations
Sep 14, 2026Théo Archambault, Pierre Garcia, Mattia Romero +2Physics-Informed ML Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Amphitrite, Paris, France · Sorbonne Université, LIP6, Pequan, Paris, France · The Ocean Cleanup, Rotterdam, Netherlands +1
Data-driven Prediction of Satellite-observed Avalanche Activity from Snowpack Simulations
Sep 14, 2026Jakob Grahn, Filippo Maria Bianchi, Bert Kruyt +1Spatiotemporal Forecasting
NORCE Research, Tromsø, Norway · UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway · Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo, Norway
STHMoE: Hypergraph-Enhanced Heterogeneous Dependency Coordination for LLM-Based Urban Traffic Data Forecasting
Sep 14, 2026Jiawen Chen, Qi Shao, Yongjian Chang +3Traffic Flow Estimation LLM-Based Time Series Forecasting
School of Mathematics, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China · School of Cyber Science and Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China · Jiangsu Province Center for Applied Mathematical Sciences, Nanjing 210096, China
Decision-Oriented Uncertainty Quantification for Risk Control in Earth System Spatiotemporal Foundation Models
Sep 13, 2026Ji Lu, Huiran Duan, Bo Zhao +5Uncertainty Quantification Geospatial Foundation Models
Vanderbilt University, United States · City University of New York, United States · Yale University, United States +4
Neptune: An AI model for Global Ocean Subseasonal Prediction
Sep 8, 2026Davide Donno, Italo Epicoco, Massimo Cafaro +8Neural Surrogate Modeling Climate Modeling
Department of Engineering for Innovation, University of Salento, Via per Monteroni, Lecce, Italy · CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Italy · Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA +2
Inferring Urban Mobility Interactions from Aggregated Dynamics
Sep 7, 2026Yi Wang, Jing Li, Jinliang Deng +5Traffic Flow Estimation Probabilistic Forecasting
Institute of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System, School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China · Centre for Frontier AI Research, Institute of High-Performance Computing, Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR), Singapore · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China. +1
Predicting Spatiotemporal Mobile Sensing-Based PM2.5 Concentrations Using Low-Rank Adapted Spatially Attentive Graph Neural Network
Sep 7, 2026Om Chiddarwar, Priyanka Mandal, Praveen Kumar Chandaliya +1Graph Attention Networks Air Quality Prediction
IIITDM Kurnool, Kurnool, Andhra Pradesh 518002, India · Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology Surat, Gujarat 394210, India
GenONet: A Generative operator Network for High-Resolution Precipitation Nowcasting
Sep 1, 2026Mohammad Kian Golkar, Luciano Alves de Oliveira, Mohammad KhanjaniPrecipitation Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign · Sharif University of Technology
Seasonality-Aware Hybrid Convolutional Transformer for Antarctic Sea Ice Concentration Forecasting
Aug 31, 2026Danyang Li, John Taylor, Thang Bui +1Hybrid CNN-Transformer Architectures Time Series Forecasting
School of Computer Science, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia · Yau Mathematical Sciences Center, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
Supraglacial Lake Fate Is Knowable Long Before the Season Ends
Aug 31, 2026Emam Hossain, Md Osman GaniTime Series Classification Climate Science
University of Maryland, Baltimore County Baltimore, Maryland, USA
ButterMamba: Butterworth-Enhanced Spatial-Temporal Mamba for Efficient Traffic Flow Prediction
Aug 30, 2026Limiao Zhang, Yuhui Lu, Jie Gao +3Mamba Intelligent Transportation Systems
State Key Laboratory of Opto-Electronic Information Acquisition and Protection Technology, Anhui University · Institute of Physical Science and Information Technology, Anhui University · School of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Shandong University +1
LLMODE: Aligning ODEs with LLMs via Gated Token Injection for Irregular Spatio-Temporal Forecasting
Aug 30, 2026Di Zhang, Jingyang Zhang, Ziqian Wang +4Irregular Time-Series Modeling Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting
Beihang University Beijing, China
Learning to Transfer Across Modes: Towards Unified Urban Mobility Forecasting
Aug 28, 2026Yixuan Zhao, Man LuoRepresentation Learning Transfer Learning
University of Exeter Department of Computer Science Exeter, United Kingdom
A Critical Audit of Spatiotemporal Forecasting Benchmark Datasets and Models
Aug 21, 2026Kenneth Martin, Simon Heilig, Asja Fischer +3Graph Neural Networks Time Series Forecasting
Ruhr University Bochum Bochum, Germany · Ben-Gurion University of the Negev Beersheba, Israel
StationPDE: Station-Oriented Surface PDE Learning for Multi-Station Multivariate Weather Forecasting
Aug 20, 2026Xiao Wang, Changjian Chen, Rongwen Li +3Multivariate Time Series Forecasting PDE Operator Learning
Hunan University.
General Semantic Knowledge Infusion for Spatio-Temporal Traffic Forecasting
Aug 18, 2026Mattis Thor Straten, Yannick Wolker, Steffen Strohm +3Graph Neural Networks Traffic Flow Estimation
Department of Computer Science, Kiel University, Germany · GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Germany · ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, Kiel, Germany
F2STNet: Fair and Federated Spectral-Temporal Modeling for Graph Forecasting
Aug 10, 2026Jiayi Zhang, Jinfeng Xu, Hewei Wang +7Federated Learning Aggregation Federated Graph Learning
University of Nottingham · The University of Hong Kong · Carnegie Mellon University +1

Sep 23, 2026, physics.ao-phJ/K move · Enter open · S save

HClimRep-Ocean: A Global Ocean Emulator on an Unstructured Mesh

Kacper Nowak, Aleksei Koldunov, Nikolay Koldunov, Savvas Melidonis+6

Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany · Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Jülich Supercomputing Center, Jülich, Germany · Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany+3

Neural Surrogate Modeling Climate Modeling Spatiotemporal Forecasting

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Machine-learning (ML) emulators for atmospheric processes have advanced rapidly in recent years, transforming weather forecasting. Although early ML ocean forecasting models now exist, they remain less developed than their atmospheric counterparts. Unlike the atmosphere, much of the ocean's kinetic energy resides in mesoscale eddies whose characteristic spatial scales are approximately an order of magnitude smaller than those of comparable atmospheric features. Moreover, complex coastlines, narrow straits, and ice-covered seas make boundary representation a central challenge that atmospheric models do not face. Consequently, numerical ocean simulations commonly use locally refined or even completely unstructured meshes. However, their data-driven counterparts have so far been built around latitude-longitude grids. We present HClimRep-Ocean, an ocean emulator that operates directly on the native unstructured mesh of FESOM2. The emulator is trained on a 209-year AWI-CM3 control integration and is run without atmospheric forcing, receiving the atmospheric state only at initialisation time, which isolates the predictability carried by the ocean state itself. Skill is strongly field-dependent: for currents, HClimRep-Ocean outperforms every reference at 30 day forecast, whereas for temperature and salinity a damped-anomaly persistence forecast remains the more accurate estimator. This behaviour is physically interpretable: current variability is largely geostrophic and internally generated, whereas sea-surface temperature and salinity fluctuations are driven by atmospheric forcing through weather state. Evaluated independently on the OceanBench benchmark, a reanalysis-trained variant of HClimRep-Ocean achieves the lowest RMSE against GLORYS reanalysis among all assessed systems, confirming the competitiveness of the native-mesh approach.

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