Spatiotemporal Forecasting

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39 papers in the last four weeks, up 290% on the four weeks before. 0.4% of all new papers.

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AirCast-SR: A Foundation Model for Kilometer-Scale Atmospheric Super-Resolution via Latent Consistency Diffusion
May 20, 2026Somnath Luitel, Manmeet Singh, Joshua Durkee +11Geospatial Foundation Models Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Department of Earth, Environmental, and Atmospheric Sciences, Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, KY, USA · NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA · The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA +3
HaorFloodAlert: A 72-Hour Machine Learning Early Warning System for Flash Floods in Bangladesh's Haor Wetlands
May 19, 2026Salma Hoque Talukdar Koli, Fahima Haque Talukder Jely, Md. Samiul Alim +1Spatiotemporal Forecasting Flood Forecasting
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, RTM Al-Kabir Technical University, Sylhet-3100, Bangladesh · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, North East University Bangladesh, Sylhet, Bangladesh · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Dhaka University of Engineering & Technology, Gazipur, Bangladesh
FLUXtrapolation: A benchmark on extrapolating ecosystem fluxes
May 19, 2026Anya Fries, Jacob A Nelson, Martin Jung +2Distribution Shift Robustness OOD Generalization
Seminar for Statistics, ETH Zürich Zürich, Switzerland · Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry Jena, Germany
Accurate, Efficient, and Explainable Deep Learning Approaches for Environmental Science Problems
May 19, 2026Jimeng ShiRetrieval-Augmented Generation Explainable Artificial Intelligence
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY Miami, Florida
Bridge: Retrieval-Augmented Spatiotemporal Modeling for Urban Delivery Demand
May 18, 2026Yihong Tang, Tong Nie, Junlin He +3Time Series Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting
McGill University · The Hong Kong Polytechnic University · University of Toronto +1
4DLidarOpen: An Open 4D FMCW Lidar Dataset for Motion-Aware Autonomous Driving
May 18, 2026Kane Qian, Xin Zhao, Yining Shi +7Autonomous Driving Datasets Autonomous Driving
1Tsinghua University. · 2Hesai Technology Co., Ltd.
Improving Spatio-Temporal Residual Error Propagation by Mitigating Over-Squashing
May 18, 2026Seyed Mohamad Moghadas, Esther Rodrigo Bonet, Bruno Cornelis +1Graph Rewiring Over-Squashing
ETRO Department, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium · imec Kapeldreef 75, B-3001 Leuven, Belgium
Learning Displacement-Robust Representations for Landslide Early Warning under Rainfall Forecast Uncertainty
May 17, 2026Ren Ozeki, Hamada Rizk, Hirozumi YamaguchiDistribution Shift Robustness Contrastive Learning
Osaka University, Suita, Japan · Japan Meteorological Agency · RIKEN Center for Computational Science, Kobe, Japan +1
Mechanism Learning: Prototype-Anchored Mechanism Inference for Scientific Forecasting
May 16, 2026Qian Jiang, Liping SunPrototype-Based Learning Non-Stationary Time Series Forecasting
School of Computing · The Australian National University · Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia +3
A Global-Local Graph Attention Network for Traffic Forecasting
May 16, 2026Tianchi ZhangIntelligent Transportation Systems Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Prospective multi-pathogen disease forecasting using autonomous LLM-guided tree search
May 15, 2026Sarah Martinson, Michael P. Brenner, Martyna Plomecka +3Epidemic Forecasting Large Language Model-Guided Optimization
Google Research · School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University · Google Deepmind +1
Nested Spatio-Temporal Time Series Forecasting
May 15, 2026Yinghao Ai, Yukai Zhou, Ruoxi Jiang +8Non-Stationary Time Series Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting
National Key Laboratory for Novel Software Technology, Nanjing University, China · Shanghai Academy of AI for Science, Shanghai · Department of Computer Science and Technology, Nanjing University +3
Njord: A Probabilistic Graph Neural Network for Ensemble Ocean Forecasting
May 14, 2026Daniel Holmberg, Joel Oskarsson, Erik Wikingsson +2Graph Neural Networks Uncertainty Quantification
University of Helsinki · ETH AI Center · Linköping University
GPU-Accelerated Deep Learning for Heatwave Prediction and Urban Heat Risk Assessment
May 14, 2026Adis AlihodžićConvolutional LSTM Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Department of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Sarajevo, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina.
QuChaTeR: A Hybrid Quantum-Chaotic Temporal Framework for Earthquake Prediction
May 14, 2026Emir Kaan ÖzdemirHybrid Quantum-Classical ML Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Istanbul Erkek High School Ministry of National Education Istanbul, Türkiye · Ministry of National Education
MambaRain: Multi-Scale Mamba-Attention Framework for 0-3 Hour Precipitation Nowcasting
May 14, 2026Chunlei Shi, Cui Wu, Xiang Xu +10Mamba Precipitation Forecasting
School of Automation, Southeast University · Nanjing XinDa Institute of Meteorological Science and Technology · Beijing Leninainfo Technology Co., Ltd. +5
Does Your Wildfire Prediction Model Actually Work, or Just Score Well?
May 14, 2026Yangshuang Xu, Yuyang Dai, Liling Chang +2Geospatial Foundation Models Wildfire Forecasting
Florida State University · Northeastern University
Toward AI-Driven Digital Twins for Metropolitan Floods: A Conditional Latent Dynamics Network Surrogate of the Shallow Water Equations
May 13, 2026Phillip Si, Yuan Qiu, Omar Sallam +4Neural Surrogate Modeling PDE Surrogate Modeling
School of Computational Science and Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 756 West Peachtree Street Northwest, Atlanta, 30308, GA, USA · Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 S Cass Ave, Lemont, 60439, IL, USA
Spatiotemporal downscaling and nowcasting of urban land surface temperatures with deep neural networks
May 13, 2026Solomiia Kurchaba, Angela MeyerU-Net Convolutional LSTM
Department of Geoscience and Remote Sensing · School of Engineering and Computer Science, Bern University of Applied Sciences
Stable Attention Response for Reliable Precipitation Nowcasting
May 13, 2026Penghui Wen, Zexin Hu, Sen Zhang +6Precipitation Forecasting Attention Head Analysis
School of Computer Science, The University of Sydney Australia · Independent Researcher Australia · School of Life and Environmental Science, The University of Sydney Australia +3
SpikeProphecy: A Large-Scale Benchmark for Autoregressive Neural Population Forecasting
May 13, 2026John R. Minnick, Jinghui Geng, Kamran Hussain +6Neural Processes Time Series Forecasting
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, USA · UC Santa Cruz Genomics Institute, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, USA · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, USA +2
OceanCBM: A Concept Bottleneck Model for Mechanistic Interpretability in Ocean Forecasting
May 12, 2026Sanah Suri, Kieran Ringel, Maike SonnewaldConcept Bottleneck Models Mechanistic Interpretability
Department of Computer Science University of California, Davis Davis, CA 95616 · University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA. · NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA.
PyroAdapt: Adapting Wildfire Prediction under Spatial Heterogeneity and Temporal Shift
May 12, 2026Enyi Jiang, Wu SunLearning to Rank Domain Adaptation
Siebel School of Computing and Data Science, University of Illiois at Urbana-Champaign · Computer Science, Stanford University · Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science
U-STS-LLM A Unified Spatio-Temporal Steered Large Language Model for Traffic Prediction and Imputation
May 12, 2026Yichen Zhang, Jun LiLong-Term Time Series Forecasting Time Series Imputation
School of Information Science and Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing, 210096, CHINA.
EpiCastBench: Datasets and Benchmarks for Multivariate Epidemic Forecasting
May 12, 2026Madhurima Panja, Danny D'Agostino, Huitao Li +2Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Epidemic Forecasting
Sorbonne University Abu Dhabi · Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore
AxiomOcean: Forecasting the Three-Dimensional Structure of the Upper Ocean
May 11, 2026Sensen Wu, Yifan Chen, Guantao Pu +9Spatiotemporal Forecasting
School of Earth Sciences & Zhejiang Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China · State Key Laboratory of Ocean Sensing, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China · The State Key Lab of Brain-Machine Intelligence, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China +1
Set Prediction for Next-Day Active Fire Forecasting
May 11, 2026Yuchen Bai, Georgios Athanasiou, Xin Yu +4Wildfire Forecasting Set Prediction
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany · Orion Lab, National Technical University of Athens · University of Utah, Salt Lake City, USA +4
Stable Long-Horizon PDE Forecasting via Latent Structured Spectral Propagators
May 11, 2026Xiaoxiao Lu, Ye Yuan, Jiahao ShiLatent Dynamics Modeling PDE Surrogate Modeling
School of AIA, Huazhong University of Science and Technology
Dimensional Balance Improves Large Scale Spatiotemporal Prediction Performance
May 11, 2026Jing Chen, Shixiang Pan, Yujie Fan +3Long-Term Time Series Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting
School of Computer Science and Technology, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou, 310018, China · Key Laboratory of New Industrial Internet Control Technology, Hangzhou, 310018, China · College of Economics, China Jiliang University, Hangzhou, 314423, China
PixelFlowCast: Latent-Free Precipitation Nowcasting via Pixel Mean Flows
May 11, 2026Yufeng Zhu, Chunlei Shi, Yongchao Feng +1Precipitation Forecasting Efficient Inference

May 20, 2026, cs.LGJ/K move · Enter open · S save

AirCast-SR: A Foundation Model for Kilometer-Scale Atmospheric Super-Resolution via Latent Consistency Diffusion

Somnath Luitel, Manmeet Singh, Joshua Durkee, Abdullah Al Fahad+10

Department of Earth, Environmental, and Atmospheric Sciences, Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, KY, USA · NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA · The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA+3

Geospatial Foundation Models Spatiotemporal Forecasting Diffusion Models Weather Forecasting

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Operational weather prediction at kilometer scales remains computationally prohibitive for traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, limiting forecast access for applications in energy, agriculture, and disaster management that require fine-grained spatiotemporal detail. Here we introduce AirCast-SR, a foundation model for atmospheric super-resolution that downscales global AI weather forecasts from 0.25 degree (~28 km) to 1 km horizontal resolution at hourly temporal resolution, producing 67-hour forecasts of eight coupled surface variables simultaneously. EarthMind-SR employs a three-dimensional U-Net conditioned within a Latent Consistency Model (LCM) diffusion framework, trained on patch-based samples over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using GraphCast forecasts as input and NOAA's Analysis of Record for Calibration (AORC) as the target. The model achieves near-zero bias across all variables and lead times, and its radial power spectral density analysis demonstrates preservation of fine-scale atmospheric structure at wavelengths of 10 km to 100 km where coarser models lose spectral power. We validate EarthMind-SR across three CONUS case studies spanning winter, summer, and spring seasons, and demonstrate zero-shot global transferability over India and Germany using independent surface station observations without any retraining or fine-tuning. As an open-weights foundation model, EarthMind-SR establishes a new paradigm for kilometer-scale AI weather prediction and provides a platform for regional fine-tuning, distillation, and downstream applications in climate services and hazard forecasting.

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