Stratification

Offline multi-agent payoff models are estimated under a logging distribution but used on distributions induced by learned solutions and unilateral deviations. Standard held-out loss can therefore favor an interaction class that predicts logged play well while distorting strategic incentives. We introduce Selective Interaction-Rank Validation (SIRV) for finite games with known logging distributions. A training split fits nested payoff models and constructs a common union of all candidate deployment and unilateral-replacement distributions; an independent calibration split evaluates every candidate on this same union. SIRV returns the smallest rank whose simultaneous upper worst-target risk is within tolerance of the best upper score, and abstains when a declared target is unsupported or too imprecisely estimated. A common coverage event yields a finite-candidate target-risk bound and a candidate-specific coarse correlated equilibrium (CCE) gap certificate. We also isolate an exact two-point off-support non-identifiability result. In a controlled factorial study with 2,048 independent games per family, empirical-Bernstein bounds reduce the median CCE-gap certificate by 42.5% relative to Hoeffding bounds on common returns, with a 1.36-point reduction in supported return. Under paired rank misspecification and in a separately generated congestion family, the SIRV-EB fallback rule lowers mean true candidate-selection CCE regret relative to ID-Mean, while retaining game-level losses. Across 384 games at $N=3,5,8$, ID-Mean-relative mean CCE-regret effects stay positive while certified return falls sharply under weak coverage. These results separate certifiable model selection from universal strategic improvement.

While Reinforcement Learning (RL) effectively incentivizes reasoning in Large Language Models, current pipelines are hindered by training instability and rapid entropy collapse. These limitations often stem from "Rollout Silencing" and low-quality gradient signals in standard sampling procedures. In this work, we propose a robust, data-centric framework to stabilize RL training. We first introduce Potential-Aware Query Mining (PAQM), which filters data dynamically to focus on the "Distillation Zone"---samples with high potential for capability elicitation. Furthermore, we present Hybrid Stratified Replay (HSR), a novel mechanism that restructures batches by stratifying rollouts based on Path Entropy, a rollout-level confidence proxy, and outcome reward. Within each optimization step, HSR reuses current-policy "Stability Anchors" and "Hard Negatives" to construct high-contrast optimization groups, then clears its buffers before the next step. This approach mitigates entropy collapse while improving the utilization of learning signals under limited compute. Our method outperforms strong baselines on complex reasoning tasks, offering a principled solution for stable and efficient RL fine-tuning.

Trained transformer models develop privileged bases: coordinate axes whose statistics differ from the rest of the residual stream. But what kind of direction does such a basis select? We investigate the prediction direction, the unembedding direction of the token a model currently predicts, and find that it functions as a content-defined privileged anchor. Measured with respect to this anchor, residual-stream variation is geometrically and behaviorally stratified by proximity to the prediction. The stratification holds in all eighteen models tested (dense and mixture-of-experts, 7B-120B, base and instruction-tuned). A narrow, scale-invariant prediction interface concentrates readout-relevant structure, while the vast prediction-distal complement expands with model scale. Because the prediction direction sits nearly orthogonal to the principal variance axes, variance-based analyses recover this organization only partly, and the shortfall grows with prompt heterogeneity. Anchoring reveals a steep geometric gradient: prediction-proximal regions are highly structured and cluster related prompts, while the complement is flatter and anti-discriminates among prompt groups. The interface is a narrow slice but functionally decisive. Disrupting the variance directions closest to the prediction causes immediate divergence and frequent task-frame shifts; disrupting the next level down delays divergence and preserves framing. The complement is weakly readout-aligned per direction yet causally and temporally load-bearing, and behavior is driven by direction rather than magnitude. These results establish the prediction direction as a privileged anchor distinct from previously described coordinate axes, and give a geometric account of how high-dimensional computation coexists with linear readout.

Rigorous dataset partitioning is a foundational, yet frequently overlooked, prerequisite for reliable deep learning in longitudinal medical imaging. Naively shuffling small clinical cohorts routinely introduces covariate shifts and temporal sampling imbalances across training, validation, and test subsets, exposing downstream models to out-of-distribution evaluation. We address this vulnerability with an auditable Tripartite Dataset Analytics Framework that systematically characterizes spatial grid integrity, multi-parametric intensity fingerprints, and longitudinal temporal trajectories, quantifying the heavy-tailed feature dispersion and irregular, episodic sampling intervals typical of real-world clinical cohorts. Building on this characterization, we formalize an unsupervised spatio-temporal cohort-balancing standard operating procedure (SOP) that combines elbow-optimized K-means clustering over a standardized, six-dimensional joint intensity-temporal feature space with intra-cluster proportionate stratified sampling. On a longitudinal, contrast-enhanced $T1$-weighted brain MRI cohort (N=149), the protocol reduces the maximum cross-subset intensity bias from 34.1% under conventional random shuffling to under 2.1%, while aligning longitudinal follow-up intervals closely around the population mean. Monte Carlo stress testing across ten random seeds and three split configurations confirms that this alignment remains tightly bounded, in clear contrast to the substantial variability of random partitioning. The resulting protocol offers a reproducible, generalizable procedure for cohort engineering in variable-length longitudinal clinical imaging workflows.

Sharp et al. (2025) introduce "agentic inequality" as a framework for analyzing disparities in access to AI agents across three dimensions: availability, quality, and quantity. These person- and organization-level dimensions characterize who can access agents and at what capability, but do not address a structurally important divide operating at a finer level: the individual interaction. Two users with nominally equivalent agent access may experience qualitatively different AI utility depending on whether the system can autonomously retrieve context from the user's knowledge corpus (Dynamic Context Retrieval) or requires the user to manually identify and attach relevant documents at each query (Manual Attachment). We term this the Context Access Divide (CAD). For knowledge-intensive workers whose intellectual capital spans tens of thousands of files, the CAD constitutes a qualitative threshold in AI usefulness: below it, the cognitive burden of context curation falls on the human, reproducing the inefficiencies AI is meant to eliminate. We propose contextuality -- the degree to which an AI system autonomously accesses a user's accumulated knowledge capital -- as a dimension of AI-mediated inequality that complements, but is not reducible to, the Sharp et al. framework. We formalize the CAD with a probabilistic model grounded in the fan effect literature in cognitive psychology, demonstrating that manual context attachment leads to a combinatorial collapse in task-success probability as corpus size and task conjunctivity grow, while dynamic retrieval architectures are structurally insulated from this collapse. We analyze the technical basis of this divide in the Model Context Protocol (MCP) and retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) architectures, and examine its implications for knowledge-work stratification and AI platform governance.

Fei Xiaotong's Differential Order Pattern characterizes rural society as egocentric and relationally graded, with cooperation attenuating over social distance. Although often treated as culturally specific, its mechanistic basis remains under-operationalized, and prior LLM-based simulations have mainly addressed short-term coordination rather than long-horizon social structure. We propose CAREB-MAS, a multi-agent framework grounded in Affect Control Theory, Social Identity Theory, and Durkheimian collective affect. Agents reason through an emotion-ethics-belief chain and maintain dynamically evolving egocentric identities, while the macro environment specifies only individual production, preference-based allocation, and minimal interaction protocols. Across long-horizon simulations, agents spontaneously reproduce five core Differential Order phenomena: stable labor specialization, guanxi-based economic ethics, relational decay of cooperation, emergent relational authority, and clan-based center-periphery stratification. These patterns shift with production structure from kin-centered integration toward greater functional interdependence. Extensive experiment results support interpreting Differential Order as a structure-sensitive emergent outcome of general social mechanisms, with LLM-based multi-agent simulation providing an interdisciplinary framework for studying social structure and change.

Attention sinks, representation collapse, and norm stratification are treated as transformer-specific pathologies. We show they are not specific to attention: they are what content-based routing does under a fixed similarity metric. We give a reframing identity: softmax attention is Boltzmann-weighted aggregation over Euclidean distances with constant key norms, so its score omits a $-\|k\|^2$ term and is blind to key magnitude. This predicts that any router whose metric is ill-matched to its representations should compensate, by concentrating its routing and collapsing the routed representations. We test it on routers that score and aggregate over different axes: softmax attention over tokens (nine pretrained transformers), graph attention over nodes, a selective state-space model and a recurrent mixer over time, and learned residuals over depth. All develop the same signature, and two within-model ablations show it is caused by the routing mechanism rather than by incidental dynamics. The form is contingent, set by the strength of the positional brake each router carries alongside its content score; we sweep that brake and move the onset across its whole range. The mechanism is not contingent, and it does not require norm stratification: a router with norm-normalized keys concentrates just the same. We do not claim these models implement Riemannian geometry; the geometric view is a diagnostic that names the inadequacy of the flat, norm-blind metric.

Survival prediction plays a central role for healthcare providers and clinical researchers. Accurate risk stratification enables early intervention and improved patient management. Most existing deep survival models learn one common feature representation for all patients, which may hide important differences between patient subgroups. In contrast, a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) framework allows different parts of the model to focus on different patient patterns, leading to more individualized representations. Therefore, in this work, we propose a mixture-of-experts enhanced adaptive deep clustering survival framework (AdaCSM) for modeling such heterogeneous survival patterns. We introduce a routing-based expert mechanism that enables conditional specialization within a parametric survival modeling framework. The proposed architecture allocates patients to specialized risk predictors dynamically while preserving the patient survival and subtype clustering objectives. We compare our method with state-of-the-art survival and deep clustering models on multiple real-world longitudinal clinical cohorts spanning diverse disease domains. The proposed method demonstrates improved predictive performance and leads to interpretable results in survival analysis.

In the era of Explainable Artificial Intelligence, there is a renewed focus on single trees for their ease of interpretation. This paper introduces Simultaneous Latent Budget Trees, a probabilistic machine learning framework for classification trees in the presence of a stratification factor such as a temporal, spatial, or demographic variable, acting as a control variable or potential confounder. Standard tree growth procedures are not designed to optimize a conditional split rule. A model-based split rule is proposed in which child nodes are interpreted as latent components of a simultaneous mixture model, such as the Simultaneous Latent Budget Model and its constrained versions, fitted to the parent node. Mixing parameters drive the observations, differently for each group, to the child nodes whereas latent budgets parameters update the response classes profile of each level of the control variable. Parameters are estimated by least squares considering a neural network perspective of the model. An informative tree structure can be interactively visualized with interpretation aids on the node and the paths, including visual pruning and decision tree selection procedure. Suitable measures are proposed to handle an unbalanced response class distribution. The proposed methodology is applied to investigate gender-related differences in disease progression of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis. The SLBT library with the various tree-based algorithms is available in the linked GitHub repository.

Cancer treatment planning requires decisions across multiple clinical dimensions at once. Clinicians must determine whether a patient should receive targeted molecular therapy, radiation therapy, and whether they are likely to survive beyond six months. Existing pathway-informed deep learning models have been developed and tested in isolation, making fair comparison across architectures impossible. We present the first unified benchmark for pathway-guided therapy response modeling, evaluating three biologically informed architectures, BINN, GraphPath, and PATH, across five cancer cohorts drawn from The Cancer Genome Atlas, representing 2,622 patients encoded using Reactome pathway activity scores. Each model is trained jointly on all three clinical outcomes under identical data and evaluation conditions, the first study to treat pathway-structured deep learning as a combined therapy and survival prediction problem. Our results show that no single architecture wins across all tasks: PATH performs best for targeted molecular therapy prediction overall, BINN is most reliable for survival prediction, and no model produces useful predictions for radiation therapy, as the key drivers of that decision are clinical variables not captured in gene expression data. Most strikingly, GraphPath achieves an AUROC of 0.92 on prostate targeted molecular therapy prediction, the highest score in the entire benchmark, demonstrating that lateral co-regulation structure produces exceptional discriminative power when matched to a cohort with a narrow targetable driver programme, even under conditions of extreme class imbalance at only 11% positive prevalence.

Online evaluation of ranking and retrieval systems often relies on downstream monetization metrics such as app revenue or creator earnings. These metrics are typically heavy-tailed, with a small fraction of users dominating both mean and variance, leading to low statistical power and unreliable conclusions in A/B experiments -- especially under limited traffic. We present a practical framework for variance reduction in online experiments by combining post-stratification with CUPED. Our approach leverages pre-experiment covariates to improve the sensitivity of monetization experiments without requiring additional traffic. Deployed at ShareChat across ranking-driven monetization experiments, the method substantially reduces variance and improves decision stability, achieving equivalent statistical confidence with ~45% less traffic than standard metrics. We further discuss practical design choices, guardrails, and limitations, providing guidance on when post-stratification is appropriate for real-world information retrieval and Recommendation systems.

Medical image analysis models can exhibit performance disparities across patient subgroups, threatening clinical safety and fairness. Existing methods typically address this issue by optimizing accuracy and fairness metrics for visible demographic attributes (e.g., sex or age) considered in isolation. This strategy not only overlooks potentially more informative latent stratifications, which may reveal deeper sources of model error and inequity, but also fails to scale when multiple demographic attributes are considered simultaneously due to the resulting sparsity of training data within each subgroup. We deal with these issues by introducing the label-free hidden-cohort fairness (LHCF) training paradigm that instead of maximizing fairness over visible demographic attributes, it optimizes fairness across latent subpopulations discovered from image appearance. By clustering images into K appearance-based cohorts and applying fairness optimization over them, LHCF uncovers underlying sources of model error and avoids the combinatorial sparsity of multi-demographic attributes, reducing disparities across both single and multiple demographic attributes. We demonstrate on our proposed fairness benchmark, HIDFairBench, that LHCF provides state-of-the-art fairness results on single and multiple demographic attributes, despite never using demographic labels for training. Our results position hidden-cohort fairness as a practical, scalable, and robust alternative to demographic-based fairness optimization for trustworthy medical image analysis.

Unsupervised learning methods -- topic modeling, partition-based and density-based clustering -- produce data groupings without human guidance, yet choosing and evaluating those groupings should not itself be unsupervised. We present \emph{SmartIterator}(SI), a visual analytics approach that treats the full sequence of grouping results across a parameter sweep as a first-class analytical object. For each method family, SI provides a structured six-phase workflow that guides the analyst through systematic exploration of grouping results -- from quality-metric overview through transition-stability assessment, membership-confidence evaluation, content and context inspection, and recurrent-archetype verification to an informed decision -- building cumulative understanding of data structure along the way. The workflows are operationalized through \emph{IteraScope}(IS), a coordinated visual display combining quality-metric charts with semantic color encoding, a 1D group embedding with Sankey-style transition flows and violin plots of membership confidence, a 2D group embedding with HDBSCAN-detected recurrent archetypes that highlights iterations capturing all persistent patterns, and domain-specific linked views for contextualized interpretation. We demonstrate the three workflows on: (1)~simulated social-media messages from the VAST Challenge 2011 (density-based clustering, validated against ground truth), (2)~EU population statistics across ${\sim}1\,500$ NUTS-3 regions (partition-based clustering), and (3)~30 years of IEEE VIS papers (NMF topic modeling). The workflows constitute the main contribution: they provide actionable, method-specific guidance for navigating parameter spaces, studying how data structure evolves across configurations, and grounding analytical understanding in domain context -- yielding knowledge about the data that no single ``best'' result can provide.

Instruction tuning has optimized the specialized capabilities of large language models (LLMs), but it often requires extensive datasets and prolonged training times. The challenge lies in developing specific capabilities by identifying useful data and efficiently fine-tuning. High-quality and diverse pruned data can help models achieve lossless performance at a lower cost. In this paper, we propose \textbf{SLAP}, a novel batch-aware data selection framework that evaluates the learnability of entire batch compositions rather than individual. SLAP ensures comprehensive data distribution coverage through distribution-aware stratified sampling while maximizing intra-batch diversity through relative distance optimization. By leveraging Hessian-approximated gradient information for dynamic batch selection, SLAP significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods across multiple model architectures (LLaMA, ChatGLM) and diverse downstream tasks including multi-turn dialogue, multilingual translation, and question answering. Most notably, SLAP achieves superior performance with 20-40% less training data compared to full dataset training, substantially reducing computational costs while maintaining or improving model capabilities. These results establish SLAP as a powerful approach for efficient and effective instruction tuning of large language models.

Automated sleep stage classification typically employs a single population-agnostic model, disregarding established demographic variations in sleep architecture. Sleep patterns, however, differ substantially across gender, age, and obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) severity, indicating that a onesize-fits all approach may be suboptimal for diverse clinical populations. In this paper, we propose a two stage training strategy based on demographic stratification and transfer learning framework. We first pretrains a convolutional recurrent model on the full population and then fine tunes it independently for demographic subgroups defined by gender, age, and Apnea-Hypopnea Index (AHI) severity according to the AASM clinical standard. Using the DREAMT dataset comprising 100 clinical subjects and 7 PSG channels, we evaluate 37 fine-tuned configurations across single-axis and two-way demographic combinations. Results demonstrate that 35 of the 37 fine-tuned models outperform the baseline, with Cohen's kappa improvements ranging from 0.9 to 12.9%. These findings indicate that stratified fine tuning tailored to specific patient demographics yields substantially more accurate sleep staging than a single generalized model, offering a practical and clinically grounded paradigm for personalized sleep assessment.

Retrieval quality is the primary bottleneck for accuracy and robustness in retrieval-augmented generation (RAG). Current evaluation relies on heuristically constructed query sets, which introduce a hidden intrinsic bias. We formalize retrieval evaluation as a statistical estimation problem, showing that metric reliability is fundamentally limited by the evaluation-set construction. We further introduce \emph{semantic stratification}, which grounds evaluation in corpus structure by organizing documents into an interpretable global space of entity-based clusters and systematically generating queries for missing strata. This yields (1) formal semantic coverage guarantees across retrieval regimes and (2) interpretable visibility into retrieval failure modes. Experiments across multiple benchmarks and retrieval methods validate our framework. The results expose systematic coverage gaps, identify structural signals that explain variance in retrieval performance, and show that stratified evaluation yields more stable and transparent assessments while supporting more trustworthy decision-making than aggregate metrics.

Annotation pipelines in Natural Language Processing (NLP) commonly assume a single latent ground truth per instance and resolve disagreement through label aggregation. Perspectivist approaches challenge this view by treating disagreement as potentially informative rather than erroneous. We present a large-scale analysis of graded health-literacy annotations from 6,323 open-ended COVID-19 responses collected in Ecuador and Peru. Each response was independently labeled by multiple annotators using proportional correctness scores, reflecting the degree to which responses align with normative public-health guidelines, allowing us to analyze the full distribution of judgments rather than aggregated labels. Variance decomposition shows that question-level conceptual difficulty accounts for substantially more variance than annotator identity, indicating that disagreement is structured by the task itself rather than driven by individual raters. Agreement-stratified analyses further reveal that key social-scientific effects, including country, education, and urban-rural differences, vary in magnitude and in some cases reverse direction across levels of inter-annotator agreement. These findings suggest that graded health-literacy evaluation contains both epistemically stable and unstable components, and that aggregating across them can obscure important inferential differences. We therefore argue that strong perspectivist modeling is not only conceptually justified but statistically necessary for valid inference in graded interpretive tasks.

Weakly supervised learning has emerged as a practical alternative to fully supervised learning when complete and accurate labels are costly or infeasible to acquire. However, many existing methods are tailored to specific supervision patterns -- such as positive-unlabeled (PU), unlabeled-unlabeled (UU), complementary-label (CLL), partial-label (PLL), or similarity-unlabeled annotations -- and rely on post-hoc corrections to mitigate instability induced by indirect supervision. We propose a principled, unified framework that bypasses such post-hoc adjustments by directly formulating a stable surrogate risk grounded in the structure of weakly supervised data. The formulation naturally subsumes diverse settings -- including PU, UU, CLL, PLL, multi-class unlabeled, and tuple-based learning -- under a single optimization objective. We further establish a non-asymptotic generalization bound via Rademacher complexity that clarifies how supervision structure, model capacity, and sample size jointly govern performance. Beyond this, we analyze the effect of class-prior misspecification on the bound, deriving explicit terms that quantify its impact, and we study identifiability, giving sufficient conditions -- most notably via supervision stratification across groups -- under which the target risk is recoverable. Extensive experiments show consistent gains across class priors, dataset scales, and class counts -- without heuristic stabilization -- while exhibiting robustness to overfitting.

Public datasets of Chest X-Rays (CXRs) have long been a popular benchmark for developing machine learning (ML) computer vision models in healthcare. However, the reported strong average-case performance of these models do not necessarily reflect their actual utility when used in heterogeneous clinical settings, potentially masking weaker performance in medically significant scenarios. In this work we use clinical context to provide a more holistic evaluation of models for CXR diagnosis. In particular, we use discharge summaries, recorded prior to each CXR, to derive a ``pre-CXR'' probability of each CXR label, as a proxy for existing contextual knowledge available to clinicians when interpreting CXRs. We use this measure to probe model performance along two dimensions: First, using a stratified analysis, we show that models tend to have lower performance (as measured by AUROC and other metrics) among individuals with higher pre-CXR probability. Second, by controlling for pre-CXR probability via matching and re-weighting, we demonstrate that performance degrades when the correlation is broken between prior context and the current CXR label, suggesting that model performance is highly sensitive to the underlying distribution of clinical context. Specifically, cases with high pre-test probabilities present a fundamentally more difficult visual classification task, highlighting a gap in clinical utility when models are applied to high-risk cohorts.

Early and accurate glaucoma detection is critical to prevent irreversible vision loss, yet existing AI methods often rely on unimodal inputs and lack interpretability. We present GlaBoost, a multimodal gradient boosting framework that unifies three complementary signals for glaucoma risk prediction: fundus image embeddings from a pretrained convolutional encoder,free-text neuroretinal rim assessments encoded by a transformer-based language model, and structured ophthalmic biomarkers. These modalities are fused into a single representation and classified by an enhanced XGBoost model.On two real-world annotated datasets, GlaBoost consistently outperforms unimodal and generic multimodal baselines. Feature importance analysis highlights the cup-to-disc ratio, rim thinning, and the ISNT rule as the dominant predictors, yielding clinically consistent and interpretable decisions. GlaBoost offers a transparent and scalable foundation for multimodal decision support in ophthalmology.