Tabular ML

ML: Machine Learning

Overview

Tabular machine learning studies prediction, discovery, and explanation from structured data with numerical, categorical, text, and missing values. Common approaches include gradient-boosted decision trees, neural networks with feature embeddings and attention, pretrained or in-context models, and automated feature engineering. Benchmarks compare these methods on classification, regression, anomaly detection, and specialized tasks, but no model family consistently leads across dataset sizes, feature types, and settings. A central challenge is making results generalize beyond clean IID benchmarks while balancing accuracy with robustness, interpretability, computational cost, and careful evaluation.

Latest papers

116 papers17 papers in the last four weeks, up 143% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

Apr 16, 2026

Benchmarking Optimizers for MLPs in Tabular Deep Learning

MLP is a heavily used backbone in modern deep learning (DL) architectures for supervised learning on tabular data, and AdamW is the go-to optimizer used to train tabular DL models. Unlike architecture design, however, the choice of optimizer for tabular DL has not been examined systematically, despite new optimizers showing promise in other domains. To fill this gap, we benchmark 15 optimizers on 17 tabular datasets for training MLP-based models in the standard supervised learning setting under a shared experiment protocol. Our main finding is that the Muon optimizer consistently outperforms AdamW, and thus should be considered a strong and practical choice for practitioners and researchers, if the associated training efficiency overhead is affordable. Additionally, we find exponential moving average of model weights to be a simple yet effective technique that improves AdamW on vanilla MLPs, though its effect is less consistent across model variants.
Apr 14, 2026

Analog Optical Inference on Million-Record Mortgage Data

Analog optical computers promise large efficiency gains for machine learning inference, yet no demonstration has moved beyond small-scale image benchmarks. We benchmark the analog optical computer (AOC) digital twin on mortgage approval classification from 5.84 million U.S. HMDA records and separate three sources of accuracy loss. On the original 19 features, the AOC reaches 94.6% balanced accuracy with 5,126 parameters (1,024 optical), compared with 97.9% for XGBoost; the 3.3 percentage-point gap narrows by only 0.5pp when the optical core is widened from 16 to 48 channels, suggesting an architectural rather than hardware limitation. Restricting all models to a shared 127-bit binary encoding drops every model to 89.4--89.6%, with an encoding cost of 8pp for digital models and 5pp for the AOC. Seven calibrated hardware non-idealities impose no measurable penalty. The three resulting layers of limitation (encoding, architecture, hardware fidelity) locate where accuracy is lost and what to improve next.
Apr 11, 2026

Integrating SAINT with Tree-Based Models: A Case Study in Employee Attrition Prediction

Employee attrition presents a major challenge for organizations, increasing costs and reducing productivity. Predicting attrition accurately enables proactive retention strategies, but existing machine learning models often struggle to capture complex feature interactions in tabular HR datasets. While tree-based models such as XGBoost and LightGBM perform well on structured data, traditional encoding techniques like one-hot encoding can introduce sparsity and fail to preserve semantic relationships between categorical features. This study explores a hybrid approach by integrating SAINT (Self-Attention and Intersample Attention Transformer)-generated embeddings with tree-based models to enhance employee attrition prediction. SAINT leverages self-attention mechanisms to model intricate feature interactions. In this study, we explore SAINT both as a standalone classifier and as a feature extractor for tree-based models. We evaluate the performance, generalizability, and interpretability of standalone models (SAINT, XGBoost, LightGBM) and hybrid models that combine SAINT embeddings with tree-based classifiers. Experimental results show that standalone tree-based models outperform both the standalone SAINT model and the hybrid approaches in predictive accuracy and generalization. Contrary to expectations, the hybrid models did not improve performance. One possible explanation is that tree-based models struggle to utilize dense, high-dimensional embeddings effectively. Additionally, the hybrid approach significantly reduced interpretability, making model decisions harder to explain. These findings suggest that transformer-based embeddings, while capturing feature relationships, do not necessarily enhance tree-based classifiers. Future research should explore alternative fusion strategies for integrating deep learning with structured data.
Apr 8, 2026

OmniTabBench: Mapping the Empirical Frontiers of GBDTs, Neural Networks, and Foundation Models for Tabular Data at Scale

While traditional tree-based ensemble methods have long dominated tabular tasks, deep neural networks and emerging foundation models have challenged this primacy, yet no consensus exists on a universally superior paradigm. Existing benchmarks typically contain fewer than 100 datasets, raising concerns about evaluation sufficiency and potential selection biases. To address these limitations, we introduce OmniTabBench, the largest tabular benchmark to date, comprising 3030 datasets spanning diverse tasks that are comprehensively collected from diverse sources and categorized by industry using large language models. We conduct an unprecedented large-scale empirical evaluation of state-of-the-art models from all model families on OmniTabBench, confirming the absence of a dominant winner. Furthermore, through a decoupled metafeature analysis, which examines individual properties such as dataset size, feature types, feature and target skewness/kurtosis, we elucidate conditions favoring specific model categories, providing clearer, more actionable guidance than prior compound-metric studies.
Apr 6, 2026

Noise Immunity in In-Context Tabular Learning: An Empirical Robustness Analysis of TabPFN's Attention Mechanisms

Tabular foundation models (TFMs) such as TabPFN (Tabular Prior-Data Fitted Network) are designed to generalize across heterogeneous tabular datasets through in-context learning (ICL). They perform prediction in a single forward pass conditioned on labeled examples without dataset-specific parameter updates. This paradigm is particularly attractive in industrial domains (e.g., finance and healthcare) where tabular prediction is pervasive. Retraining a bespoke model for each new table can be costly or infeasible in these settings, while data quality issues such as irrelevant predictors, correlated feature groups, and label noise are common. In this paper, we provide strong empirical evidence that TabPFN is highly robust under these sub-optimal conditions. We study TabPFN and its attention mechanisms for binary classification problems with controlled synthetic perturbations that vary: (i) dataset width by injecting random uncorrelated features and by introducing nonlinearly correlated features, (ii) dataset size by increasing the number of training rows, and (iii) label quality by increasing the fraction of mislabeled targets. Beyond predictive performance, we analyze internal signals including attention concentration and attention-based feature ranking metrics. Across these parametric tests, TabPFN is remarkably resilient: ROC-AUC remains high, attention stays structured and sharp, and informative features are highly ranked by attention-based metrics. Qualitative visualizations with attention heatmaps, feature-token embeddings, and SHAP plots further support a consistent pattern across layers in which TabPFN increasingly concentrates on useful features while separating their signals from noise. Together, these findings suggest that TabPFN is a robust TFM capable of maintaining both predictive performance and coherent internal behavior under various scenarios of data imperfections.
Apr 5, 2026

Which Leakage Types Matter? A Quantitative Landscape Across 2,047 Benchmark Datasets

Twenty-eight within-subject counterfactual experiments across 2,047 iid tabular datasets, plus a boundary experiment on 129 temporal datasets, measure the severity of four data leakage classes in machine learning. Class I (estimation: fitting scalers on full data) is negligible: all nine conditions produce ∣ΔAUC∣≤0.005|ΔAUC| \leq 0.005. Class II (selection: peeking, seed cherry-picking) is substantial: the measured effect is consistent with about 90% noise exploitation inflating reported scores. Class III (memorization) scales with model capacity: dzd_z = 0.37 (Naive Bayes) to 1.11 (Decision Tree) at 10% duplication. Class IV (boundary) is invisible under random cross-validation. Within this iid tabular regime, the textbook emphasis is inverted: normalization leakage matters least; selection leakage at practical dataset sizes matters most.
Apr 1, 2026

Cooperative Coevolution versus Monolithic Evolutionary Search for Semi-Supervised Tabular Classification

This paper studies semi-supervised tabular classification in the extreme low-label regime using lightweight base learners. The paper proposes a cooperative coevolutionary method (CC-SSL) that evolves (i) two feature-subset views and (ii) a pseudo-labeling policy, and compares it to a matched monolithic evolutionary baseline (EA-SSL) and three lightweight SSL baselines. Experiments on 25 OpenML datasets with labeled fractions {1%,5%,10%} evaluate test MacroF1 and accuracy, together with evolutionary and pseudo-label diagnostics. CC-SSL and EA-SSL achieve higher median test MacroF1 than the lightweight baselines, with the largest separations at 1% labeled data. Most CC-SSL vs. EA-SSL comparisons are statistical draws on final test performance. EA-SSL shows higher best-so-far fitness and higher diversity during search, while time-to-target is comparable and generations-to-target favors EA-SSL in several multiclass settings. Pseudo-label volume, ProbeDrop, and validation optimism show no significant differences between CC-SSL and EA-SSL under the shared protocol.
Mar 22, 2026

Fuel Consumption Prediction: A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Paradigms

The automotive industry is under growing pressure to reduce its environmental impact, requiring accurate predictive modeling to support sustainable engineering design. This study examines the factors that determine vehicle fuel consumption from the seminal Motor Trend dataset, identifying the governing physical factors of efficiency through rigorous quantitative analysis. Methodologically, the research uses data sanitization, statistical outlier elimination, and in-depth Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) to curb the occurrence of multicollinearity between powertrain features. A comparative analysis of machine learning paradigms including Multiple Linear Regression, Support Vector Machines (SVM), and Logistic Regression was carried out to assess predictive efficacy. Findings indicate that SVM Regression is most accurate on continuous prediction (R-squared = 0.889, RMSE = 0.326), and is effective in capturing the non-linear relationships between vehicle mass and engine displacement. In parallel, Logistic Regression proved superior for classification (Accuracy = 90.8%) and showed exceptional recall (0.957) when identifying low-efficiency vehicles. These results challenge the current trend toward black-box deep learning architectures for static physical datasets, providing validation of robust performance by interpretable and well-tuned classical models. The research finds that intrinsic vehicle efficiency is fundamentally determined by physical design parameters, weight and displacement, offering a data-driven framework for how manufacturers should focus on lightweighting and engine downsizing to achieve stringent global sustainability goals.
Mar 21, 2026

Enhancing LIME using Neural Decision Trees

Interpreting complex machine learning models is a critical challenge, especially for tabular data where model transparency is paramount. Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME) has been a very popular framework for interpretable machine learning, also inspiring many extensions. While traditional surrogate models used in LIME variants (e.g. linear regression and decision trees) offer a degree of stability, they can struggle to faithfully capture the complex non-linear decision boundaries that are inherent in many sophisticated black-box models. This work contributes toward bridging the gap between high predictive performance and interpretable decision-making. Specifically, we propose the NDT-LIME variant that integrates Neural Decision Trees (NDTs) as surrogate models. By leveraging the structured, hierarchical nature of NDTs, our approach aims at providing more accurate and meaningful local explanations. We evaluate its effectiveness on several benchmark tabular datasets, showing consistent improvements in explanation fidelity over traditional LIME surrogates.
Mar 21, 2026

LassoFlexNet: Flexible Neural Architecture for Tabular Data

Despite their dominance in vision and language, deep neural networks often underperform relative to tree-based models on tabular data. To bridge this gap, we incorporate five key inductive biases into deep learning: robustness to irrelevant features, axis alignment, localized irregularities, feature heterogeneity, and training stability. We propose LassoFlexNet, an architecture that evaluates the linear and nonlinear marginal contribution of each input via Per-Feature Embeddings, and sparsely selects relevant variables using a Tied Group Lasso mechanism. Because these components introduce optimization challenges that destabilize standard proximal methods, we develop a Sequential Hierarchical Proximal Adaptive Gradient optimizer with exponential moving averages (EMA) to ensure stable convergence. Across 5252 datasets from three benchmarks, LassoFlexNet matches or outperforms leading tree-based models, achieving up to a 1010% relative gain, while maintaining Lasso-like interpretability. We substantiate these empirical results with ablation studies and theoretical proofs confirming the architecture's enhanced expressivity and structural breaking of undesired rotational invariance.
Mar 18, 2026

CLeAN: Continual Learning Adaptive Normalization in Dynamic Environments

Artificial intelligence systems predominantly rely on static data distributions, making them ineffective in dynamic real-world environments, such as cybersecurity, autonomous transportation, or finance, where data shifts frequently. Continual learning offers a potential solution by enabling models to learn from sequential data while retaining prior knowledge. However, a critical and underexplored issue in this domain is data normalization. Conventional normalization methods, such as min-max scaling, presuppose access to the entire dataset, which is incongruent with the sequential nature of continual learning. In this paper we introduce Continual Learning Adaptive Normalization (CLeAN), a novel adaptive normalization technique designed for continual learning in tabular data. CLeAN involves the estimation of global feature scales using learnable parameters that are updated via an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) module, enabling the model to adapt to evolving data distributions. Through comprehensive evaluations on two datasets and various continual learning strategies, including Resevoir Experience Replay, A-GEM, and EwC we demonstrate that CLeAN not only improves model performance on new data but also mitigates catastrophic forgetting. The findings underscore the importance of adaptive normalization in enhancing the stability and effectiveness of tabular data, offering a novel perspective on the use of normalization to preserve knowledge in dynamic learning environments.
Mar 17, 2026

Deep Tabular Representation Corrector

Tabular data have been playing a mostly important role in diverse real-world fields, such as healthcare, engineering, finance, etc. The recent success of deep learning has fostered many deep networks (e.g., Transformer, ResNet) based tabular learning methods. Generally, existing deep tabular machine learning methods are along with the two paradigms, i.e., in-learning and pre-learning. In-learning methods need to train networks from scratch or impose extra constraints to regulate the representations which nonetheless train multiple tasks simultaneously and make learning more difficult, while pre-learning methods design several pretext tasks for pre-training and then conduct task-specific fine-tuning, which however need much extra training effort with prior knowledge. In this paper, we introduce a novel deep Tabular Representation Corrector, TRC, to enhance any trained deep tabular model's representations without altering its parameters in a model-agnostic manner. Specifically, targeting the representation shift and representation redundancy that hinder prediction, we propose two tasks, i.e., (i) Tabular Representation Re-estimation, that involves training a shift estimator to calculate the inherent shift of tabular representations to subsequently mitigate it, thereby re-estimating the representations and (ii) Tabular Space Mapping, that transforms the above re-estimated representations into a light-embedding vector space via a coordinate estimator while preserves crucial predictive information to minimize redundancy. The two tasks jointly enhance the representations of deep tabular models without touching on the original models thus enjoying high efficiency. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on state-of-the-art deep tabular machine learning models coupled with TRC on various tabular benchmarks which have shown consistent superiority.
Mar 16, 2026

TabKD: Tabular Knowledge Distillation through Interaction Diversity of Learned Feature Bins

Data-free knowledge distillation enables model compression without original training data, critical for privacy-sensitive tabular domains. However, existing methods does not perform well on tabular data because they do not explicitly address feature interactions, the fundamental way tabular models encode predictive knowledge. We identify interaction diversity, systematic coverage of feature combinations, as an essential requirement for effective tabular distillation. To operationalize this insight, we propose TabKD, which learns adaptive feature bins aligned with teacher decision boundaries, then generates synthetic queries that maximize pairwise interaction coverage. Across 4 benchmark datasets and 4 teacher architectures, TabKD achieves highest student-teacher agreement in 14 out of 16 configurations, outperforming 5 state-of-the-art baselines. We further show that interaction coverage strongly correlates with distillation quality, validating our core hypothesis. Our work establishes interaction-focused exploration as a principled framework for tabular model extraction.
Mar 14, 2026

A Systematic Evaluation Protocol of Graph-Derived Signals for Tabular Machine Learning

While graph-derived signals are widely used in tabular learning, existing studies typically rely on limited experimental setups and average performance comparisons, leaving the statistical reliability and robustness of observed gains largely unexplored. Consequently, it remains unclear which signals provide consistent and robust improvements. This paper presents a taxonomy-driven empirical analysis of graph-derived signals for tabular machine learning. We propose a unified and reproducible evaluation protocol to systematically assess which categories of graph-derived signals yield statistically significant and robust performance improvements. The protocol provides an extensible setup for the controlled integration of diverse graph-derived signals into tabular learning pipelines. To ensure a fair and rigorous comparison, it incorporates automated hyperparameter optimization, multi-seed statistical evaluation, formal significance testing, and robustness analysis under graph perturbations. We demonstrate the protocol through an extensive case study on a large-scale, imbalanced cryptocurrency fraud detection dataset. The analysis identifies signal categories providing consistently reliable performance gains and offers interpretable insights into which graph-derived signals indicate fraud-discriminative structural patterns. Furthermore, robustness analyses reveal pronounced differences in how various signals handle missing or corrupted relational data. These findings demonstrate practical utility for fraud detection and illustrate how the proposed taxonomy-driven evaluation protocol can be applied in other application domains.
Mar 9, 2026

Where Do Flow Semantics Reside? A Protocol-Native Tabular Pretraining Paradigm for Encrypted Traffic Classification

Self-supervised masked modeling shows promise for encrypted traffic classification by masking and reconstructing raw bytes. Yet recent work reveals these methods fail to reduce reliance on labeled data despite costly pretraining: under frozen encoder evaluation, accuracy drops from greater than 0.9 to less than 0.47. We argue the root cause is inductive bias mismatch: flattening traffic into byte sequences destroys protocol-defined semantics. We identify three specific issues: 1) field unpredictability, random fields like ip.id are unlearnable yet treated as reconstruction targets; 2) embedding confusion, semantically distinct fields collapse into a unified embedding space; 3) metadata loss, capture-time metadata essential for temporal analysis is discarded. To address this, we propose a protocol-native paradigm that treats protocol-defined field semantics as architectural priors, reformulating the task to align with the data's intrinsic tabular modality rather than incrementally adapting sequence-based architectures. Instantiating this paradigm, we introduce FlowSem-MAE, a tabular masked autoencoder built on Flow Semantic Units (FSUs). It features predictability-guided filtering that focuses on learnable FSUs, FSU-specific embeddings to preserve field boundaries, and dual-axis attention to capture intra-packet and temporal patterns. FlowSem-MAE significantly outperforms state-of-the-art across datasets. With only half labeled data, it outperforms most existing methods trained on full data.
Mar 5, 2026

TML-Bench: Benchmark for Data Science Agents on Tabular ML Tasks

Autonomous coding agents can produce strong tabular baselines quickly on Kaggle-style tasks. Practical value depends on end-to-end correctness and reliability under time limits. This paper introduces TML-Bench, a tabular benchmark for data science agents on Kaggle-style tasks. This paper evaluates 10 OSS LLMs on four Kaggle competitions and three time budgets (240s, 600s, and 1200s). Each model is run five times per task and budget. A run is successful if it produces a valid submission and a private-holdout score on hidden labels that are not accessible to the agent. This paper reports median performance, success rates, and run-to-run variability. MiniMax-M2.1 model achieves the best aggregate performance score on all four competitions under the paper's primary aggregation. Average performance improves with larger time budgets. Scaling is noisy for some individual models at the current run count. Code and materials are available at https://github.com/MykolaPinchuk/TML-bench/tree/master.
Mar 5, 2026

An interpretable prototype parts-based neural network for medical tabular data

The ability to interpret machine learning model decisions is critical in such domains as healthcare, where trust in model predictions is as important as their accuracy. Inspired by the development of prototype parts-based deep neural networks in computer vision, we propose a new model for tabular data, specifically tailored to medical records, that requires discretization of diagnostic result norms. Unlike the original vision models that rely on the spatial structure, our method employs trainable patching over features describing a patient, to learn meaningful prototypical parts from structured data. These parts are represented as binary or discretized feature subsets. This allows the model to express prototypes in human-readable terms, enabling alignment with clinical language and case-based reasoning. Our proposed neural network is inherently interpretable and offers interpretable concept-based predictions by comparing the patient's description to learned prototypes in the latent space of the network. In experiments, we demonstrate that the model achieves classification performance competitive to widely used baseline models on medical benchmark datasets, while also offering transparency, bridging the gap between predictive performance and interpretability in clinical decision support.
Mar 4, 2026

SPRINT: Semi-supervised Prototypical Representation for Few-Shot Class-Incremental Tabular Learning

Real-world systems must continuously adapt to novel concepts from limited data without forgetting previously acquired knowledge. While Few-Shot Class-Incremental Learning (FSCIL) is established in computer vision, its application to tabular domains remains largely unexplored. Unlike images, tabular streams (e.g., logs, sensors) offer abundant unlabeled data, a scarcity of expert annotations and negligible storage costs, features ignored by existing vision-based methods that rely on restrictive buffers. We introduce SPRINT, the first FSCIL framework tailored for tabular distributions. SPRINT introduces a mixed episodic training strategy that leverages confidence-based pseudo-labeling to enrich novel class representations and exploits low storage costs to retain base class history. Extensive evaluation across six diverse benchmarks spanning cybersecurity, healthcare, and ecological domains, demonstrates SPRINT's cross-domain robustness. It achieves a state-of-the-art average accuracy of 77.37% (5-shot), outperforming the strongest incremental baseline by 4.45%.
Feb 27, 2026

Vectorized Dynamic Histograms for Sparse Oblique Forests

Sparse oblique (SPO), part of the top-ranked configuration of Google's Yggdrasil Decision Forests (YDF), improve the accuracy while maintaining interpretability of Random Forests (RF) and Gradient Boosted Trees (GBT) by scanning a sparse linear combination of features instead of a single feature. Because projections are sampled at runtime, training is significantly slower, as pre-run optimizations such as presorting cannot be used. We overhaul SPO training in YDF, first by fixing inefficiencies in the released version, achieving 2-5x speedup, then by devising two novel methods, one aimed at GBTs and the other at RFs: (1) Hierarchical AVX2 and AVX-512-vectorized histogram filling speeds up typical GBT-depth trees by up to 1.6x in SPO-GBT and 2x for SPO-RF, and (2) runtime-dynamic histograms between vectorized histograms and exact splits, speeds up deeper, RF depth-typical trees (depths 16 to purity) by up to 1.6x with no detectable effect on accuracy. Our optimizations bring SPO-RF training time on par with YDF's axis-aligned RF. We extensively evaluate on 8 natural and 11 synthetic datasets of up to 10.5 million rows and 1.6 million features, from depth 6 to purity, and open-source the implementation.
Feb 26, 2026

KMLP: A Scalable Hybrid Architecture for Web-Scale Tabular Data Modeling

Predictive modeling on web-scale tabular data with billions of instances and hundreds of heterogeneous numerical features faces significant scalability challenges. These features exhibit anisotropy, heavy-tailed distributions, and non-stationarity, creating bottlenecks for models like Gradient Boosting Decision Trees and requiring laborious manual feature engineering. We introduce KMLP, a hybrid deep architecture integrating a shallow Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN) front-end with a Gated Multilayer Perceptron (gMLP) backbone. The KAN front-end uses learnable activation functions to automatically model complex non-linear transformations for each feature, while the gMLP backbone captures high-order interactions. Experiments on public benchmarks and an industrial dataset with billions of samples show KMLP achieves state-of-the-art performance, with advantages over baselines like GBDTs increasing at larger scales, validating KMLP as a scalable deep learning paradigm for large-scale web tabular data.
Feb 25, 2026

C2^{2}TC: A Training-Free Framework for Efficient Tabular Data Condensation

Tabular data is the primary data format in industrial relational databases, underpinning modern data analytics and decision-making. However, the increasing scale of tabular data poses significant computational and storage challenges to learning-based analytical systems. This highlights the need for data-efficient learning, which enables effective model training and generalization using substantially fewer samples. Dataset condensation (DC) has emerged as a promising data-centric paradigm that synthesizes small yet informative datasets to preserve data utility while reducing storage and training costs. However, existing DC methods are computationally intensive due to reliance on complex gradient-based optimization. Moreover, they often overlook key characteristics of tabular data, such as heterogeneous features and class imbalance. To address these limitations, we introduce C2^{2}TC (Class-Adaptive Clustering for Tabular Condensation), the first training-free tabular dataset condensation framework that jointly optimizes class allocation and feature representation, enabling efficient and scalable condensation. Specifically, we reformulate the dataset condensation objective into a novel class-adaptive cluster allocation problem (CCAP), which eliminates costly training and integrates adaptive label allocation to handle class imbalance. To solve the NP-hard CCAP, we develop HFILS, a heuristic local search that alternates between soft allocation and class-wise clustering to efficiently obtain high-quality solutions. Moreover, a hybrid categorical feature encoding (HCFE) is proposed for semantics-preserving clustering of heterogeneous discrete attributes. Extensive experiments on 10 real-world datasets demonstrate that C2^{2}TC improves efficiency by at least 2 orders of magnitude over state-of-the-art baselines, while achieving superior downstream performance.
Feb 23, 2026

Multilevel Determinants of Overweight and Obesity Among U.S. Children Aged 10-17: Comparative Evaluation of Statistical and Machine Learning Approaches Using the 2021 National Survey of Children's Health

Background: Childhood and adolescent overweight and obesity remain major public health concerns in the United States and are shaped by behavioral, household, and community factors. Their joint predictive structure at the population level remains incompletely characterized. Objectives: The study aims to identify multilevel predictors of overweight and obesity among U.S. adolescents and compare the predictive performance, calibration, and subgroup equity of statistical, machine-learning, and deep-learning models. Data and Methods: We analyze 18,792 children aged 10-17 years from the 2021 National Survey of Children's Health. Overweight/obesity is defined using BMI categories. Predictors included diet, physical activity, sleep, parental stress, socioeconomic conditions, adverse experiences, and neighborhood characteristics. Models include logistic regression, random forest, gradient boosting, XGBoost, LightGBM, multilayer perceptron, and TabNet. Performance is evaluated using AUC, accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and Brier score. Results: Discrimination range from 0.66 to 0.79. Logistic regression, gradient boosting, and MLP showed the most stable balance of discrimination and calibration. Boosting and deep learning modestly improve recall and F1 score. No model was uniformly superior. Performance disparities across race and poverty groups persist across algorithms. Conclusion: Increased model complexity yields limited gains over logistic regression. Predictors consistently span behavioral, household, and neighborhood domains. Persistent subgroup disparities indicate the need for improved data quality and equity-focused surveillance rather than greater algorithmic complexity.
Feb 19, 2026

FAMOSE: A ReAct Approach to Automated Feature Discovery

Feature engineering remains a critical yet challenging bottleneck in machine learning, particularly for tabular data, as identifying optimal features from an exponentially large feature space traditionally demands substantial domain expertise. To address this challenge, we introduce FAMOSE (Feature AugMentation and Optimal Selection agEnt), a novel framework that leverages the ReAct paradigm to autonomously explore, generate, and refine features while integrating feature selection and evaluation tools within an agent architecture. To our knowledge, FAMOSE represents the first application of an agentic ReAct framework to automated feature engineering, especially for both regression and classification tasks. Extensive experiments demonstrate that FAMOSE is at or near the state-of-the-art on classification tasks (especially tasks with more than 10K instances, where ROC-AUC increases 0.23% on average), and achieves the state-of-the-art for regression tasks by reducing RMSE by 2.0% on average, while remaining more robust to errors than other algorithms. We hypothesize that FAMOSE's strong performance is because ReAct allows the LLM context window to record (via iterative feature discovery and evaluation steps) what features did or did not work. This is similar to a few-shot prompt and guides the LLM to invent better, more innovative features. Our work offers evidence that AI agents are remarkably effective in solving problems that require highly inventive solutions, such as feature engineering.
Feb 3, 2026

Grables: When Graph Structure Helps Tabular Prediction

Simple row-wise predictors that score each row independently remain competitive with far more expressive architectures on tabular benchmarks, which are i.i.d. by construction. They cannot, however, represent natural targets on transactional, temporal, and relational tables, where labels depend on other rows. We show that row-wise prediction provably rules out targets driven by global counts, overlaps, and relational patterns. To make ``using structure'' precise across architectures, we introduce grables: a modular interface that separates how a table is lifted to a graph (constructor) from how predictions are computed on that graph (node predictor), placing gradient-boosted trees, neighbourhood aggregation, transformer-style tabular models, and relational GNNs on a single axis and pinpointing where expressive power comes from. The framework yields a hierarchy that answers when structure is needed: row-local models suffice for extension-invariant targets, lightweight neighbourhood aggregation captures shallow inter-row signals, and explicit graph construction is needed for compositional patterns that fixed aggregations cannot express without exponential feature blow-up. Experiments on synthetic, transactional, and relational data confirm the predicted separations, but also show that benchmark performance is a poor proxy for structural capability: row-local models score well on tasks they provably cannot represent, and a stress-test that suppresses row-local cues is needed to expose the gap. Conversely, access to cross-row context does not imply a model uses it. Feeding explicitly extracted inter-row structure to strong tabular learners yields gains exactly where the hierarchy predicts. The practical recipe is to add structure incrementally, and only where the target is extension-sensitive.
Aug 30, 2025

Integrated Multivariate Segmentation Tree for Heterogeneous Credit Data Analysis in Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises

Traditional decision tree models, which rely exclusively on numerical variables, often face challenges in handling high-dimensional data and are limited in their ability to incorporate textual information effectively. To address these limitations, we propose the integrated multivariate segmentation tree (IMST), a comprehensive framework designed to improve credit evaluation for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) by integrating financial data with textual sources. This method comprises three core stages: (1) transforming textual data into numerical matrices through matrix factorization, (2) selecting salient financial features using Lasso regression, and (3) constructing a multivariate segmentation tree based on either the Gini index or entropy, with weakest-link pruning applied to control model complexity. Experimental results based on a dataset of 1,428 Chinese SMEs demonstrated that IMST achieved an accuracy rate of 88.9%, surpassing both baseline decision trees (87.4%) and conventional models such as support vector machines and neural networks. Furthermore, the proposed model demonstrated superior interpretability and computational efficiency, featuring a more streamlined architecture and improved risk detection capabilities.
May 1, 2025

Predicting Estimated Times of Restoration for Electrical Outages Using Longitudinal Tabular Transformers

Utilities publish Estimated Times of Restoration (ETRs) for customer-facing storm outages, and their accuracy governs whether customers can make sound decisions about food, medical equipment, and relocation. Prior work treats ETR as static tabular regression in which each outage contributes one record, discarding the fact that every development of an outage, from crew assignment through dispatch, suspension, damage assessment and partial restoration, is recorded as a revision. We reformulate ETR prediction as longitudinal tabular regression and introduce a Longitudinal Tabular Transformer (LTT), an axial-attention model that consumes the revisions preceding a prediction and issues a refined estimate at every one. On 242{,}928 storm-attributed outages from a cohort of 526{,}468 filtered events and 10.0 million revisions at six operating companies, LTT reduces customer-weighted asymmetric error at all six, by a median of 36.9,% against the estimates the utilities published during the same storms and 11.3,% against the strongest learned baseline at each. It is the only method improving on the incumbent's satisfaction impact at all six companies while also reducing root mean squared error at all six. Stratification by revision index shows that LTT error is largest at the first revision, where no history is available, and falls monotonically as revisions accumulate.