Traffic Accident Anticipation

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Sep 8, 2026cs.CV

Observe Before You Alert: Adaptive Driver Alerting with Vision-Language Models

Driver alerting from dashcam video requires sequential decision-making under partial observability: a system must decide not only whether a scene is risky, but also when the evidence is sufficient to warn. Most existing accident anticipation models output a binary risk score, leaving ambiguous scenes to be handled by thresholding. We propose VLAlert, a vision-language alerting framework that casts warning generation as a tri-action policy over SILENT, OBSERVE, and ALERT. The OBSERVE action acts as an internal evidence-gathering decision that delays uncertain warnings and changes the next observation window, creating a lightweight perception-action loop for adaptive alerting. VLAlert uses Qwen3-VL-4B as a safety-evidence generator and pools hidden states from structured belief spans to form compact representations for danger estimation and policy prediction. We evaluate VLAlert on VLAlert-Bench, a unified per-tick benchmark from four real-world dashcam alert datasets, and further test transfer to held-out naturalistic ADAS takeover clips. On VLAlert-Bench validation, VLAlert achieves the highest deployment-oriented utility among tested baselines, with DAUS 0.4878 compared with 0.4752 for Open-BADAS, and improves AUROC, AP_tick, F1_t, and balanced accuracy from 0.610, 0.176, 0.276, and 0.581 to 0.689, 0.195, 0.297, and 0.648, respectively. On 221 held-out ADAS-TO-Critic clips, VLAlert improves R@5s from 74.2% to 88.7% and F1 from 0.585 to 0.686. These results indicate that adaptive observation and safety-focused VLM representations provide measurable gains for driver-facing alert decisions.

Yuhang Wang, Lingyao Li, Hao Zhou

Department of Civil Engineering University of South Florida United States · School of Information University of South Florida United States

Active PerceptionVLMs for Autonomous DrivingTraffic Accident AnticipationDriver Monitoring
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Aug 30, 2026cs.CV

SynCrash: A Multi-Stage Pipeline for Zero-Shot Accident Detection and Localization in Traffic Surveillance Video

We present SynCrash, a multi-stage pipeline for zero-shot accident detection, spatial localization, and collision-type classification in fixed-view CCTV surveillance video. Our approach addresses the ACCIDENT at CVPR 2026 Challenge, which requires predicting when an accident occurs, where in the frame the impact happens, and what type of collision it is, all without access to labeled real-world training data. The pipeline operates in three decoupled stages: (1) Temporal localization via a VideoMAEv2-giant backbone fine-tuned on CARLA-based synthetic clips with metadata-aware embeddings and dense sliding-window inference; (2) Spatial localization using YOLO for object detection combined with a physics-informed hybrid heuristic that leverages bounding-box overlap and trajectory-based reasoning to predict the impact point; and (3) Collision-type classification using a lightweight rule-based strategy derived from the number and configuration of detected vehicles. The key insight is that temporal understanding benefits from supervised fine-tuning on synthetic data, whereas spatial understanding is better served by pretrained object detectors and physics priors that transfer naturally across domains.

Arkya Jyoti Bagchi, Ritul Jangir, Varun Raskar

Indian Institute of Technology Jodhpur, India

Traffic Accident AnticipationAnomaly LocalizationVideo Anomaly DetectionTemporal Action DetectionZero-Shot Anomaly Detection
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Jul 27, 2026cs.LG

Forecasting the Emergence and Evolution of Crash Hotspots: A Unified Deep Learning Framework for Proactive Traffic Safety

Road crashes remain among the gravest threats to public safety, and preventing them is a defining task of transportation systems worldwide. Much of that harm concentrates at hotspots, yet a hotspot is less a place than an episode; it emerges quietly at an intersection or along an arterial, intensifies for weeks, then subsides, only to reappear elsewhere. Enforcement guided by maps of past crashes inevitably trails this cycle, patrolling yesterday's hotspots while tomorrow's form unwatched. Breaking that lag requires three capabilities at once: detecting hotspots as they are born, forecasting where they will sit next week, and following each one through its life. We introduce HERALD (Hotspot Emergence, Risk Anticipation, and Life-cycle Dynamics), a unified deep learning framework that provides all three from a single statewide model. HERALD distills each county's recent crash history into weekly risk maps and forecasts the next with a CNN--Transformer, whose mixture-of-experts lets one model serve dense urban cores and sparse rural corridors alike. Each forecast is anchored in the county's long-run crash geography, sharpened by the self-exciting effect of recent crashes, and paired with explicit warnings of where new hotspots are about to appear. Followed over time, every hotspot acquires a legible life story, from birth through growth and stability to decline and death. Across six heterogeneous Wisconsin counties, HERALD forecasts more accurately than five identically trained baselines, locates hotspots most precisely, and flags emerging risks before they take hold. A single adjustable setting trades accuracy for extra sensitivity where deployment demands it. The result shifts hotspot management from mapping the past to anticipating the future.

Jingwen Zhu, Keshu Wu, Pei Li +3

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI, United States · Zachry Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, United States · Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY, United States

Intelligent Transportation SystemsTraffic Accident AnticipationSpatiotemporal Forecasting
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Jul 24, 2026cs.MM

CARA: Concept-Aware Risk Attention for Interpretable Collision Anticipation

Collision anticipation in autonomous driving requires not only accurate early warnings but also interpretable reasoning about what risk factors are being tracked and how risk evolves over time. Existing methods fall short in this regard: feature-driven models are opaque, post-hoc explanations often lack fidelity, and concept-based methods are mostly designed for static recognition rather than dynamic driving scenes. We propose CARA (Concept-Aware Risk Attention), an intrinsically interpretable spatio-temporal framework for collision anticipation. CARA derives domain-grounded risk concepts from accident narratives, aligns them with video frames via vision-language similarity, and organizes them into evolving concept trajectories. These trajectories provide explicit risk evidence that guides spatial attention, temporal attention, and anticipation, allowing semantic concepts to directly influence both where the model attends and how it predicts risk over time. By treating semantic risk factors as dynamic intermediate evidence rather than auxiliary post-hoc explanations, CARA tightly couples interpretability with the predictive process. Extensive experiments on three benchmarks show that CARA consistently improves anticipation accuracy and warning earliness over strong baselines, while providing sparse and semantically grounded concept evidence.

Zhishan Tao, Ruoyu Wang, Yucheng Wu +6

Shanghai Jiao Tong University · The University of Hong Kong · Fudan University +3

Autonomous DrivingTraffic Accident AnticipationConcept-Based ExplanationsMultimodal Model Interpretability
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Jul 20, 2026cs.LG

MambaLSTM: A Spatio-Temporal Framework for Enhanced Traffic Accident Risk Prediction

In traffic accident risk prediction, most studies overlook the extra noise that could be incorporated when fusing temporal features into spatial features, and some models struggle to capture global correlations among spatial regions. To address these challenges, we propose a novel traffic accident risk prediction framework named MambaLSTM. First, we develop a squeeze-and-excitation temporal feature fusion module to integrate temporal information without compromising spatio-temporal integrity. Second, we introduce a new patch embedding module for effectively capturing semantic relationships among spatially adjacent regions. Additionally, we introduce a Mamba block based on state-space models to model global spatial semantics in urban regions. Finally, we propose a MambaLSTM unit to efficiently capture long- and short-term temporal dependencies for identifying dynamic risk patterns. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the proposed model's superiority over state-of-the-art methods. The code is released at https://github.com/Zhenzovo/MambaLSTM.

Zhen Yu, Yachao Yuan, Zixiang Peng +2

School of Future Science and Engineering, Soochow University, Suzhou, Jiangsu, China · Key Laboratory of General Artificial Intelligence and Large Models in Provincial Universities, Soochow University, Suzhou, Jiangsu, China · College of Computing and Intelligent Systems, University of Khorfakkan, Sharjah, UAE

Traffic Accident AnticipationLong Short-Term Memory NetworksSpatiotemporal Forecasting
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Jun 12, 2026cs.CV

FLaRA: Predicting Future Latent Representations for Accident Anticipation

Anticipating traffic accidents from dashcam videos is a critical challenge in intelligent transportation systems. Existing methods typically map visual context directly to a collision probability without explicitly modeling the future evolution of the driving scene. In this paper we propose FLaRA (Predicting Future Latent Representations for Accident Anticipation), a novel predictive architecture that shifts this paradigm by forecasting future latent representations for accident anticipation. Building upon the Video Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (V-JEPA2), our model conditions a predictor network on observed context frames to predict the forthcoming latent features of the scene. A classifier then operates on these predicted future representations rather than only on past observations. To ensure these forecasts remain grounded in realistic future dynamics, we introduce a joint training objective that simultaneously optimizes an auxiliary feature-level reconstruction loss and a cross-entropy classification loss. Extensive evaluations on the Nexar dataset, alongside cross-domain validations on the DAD, DADA-2000, and DoTA benchmarks, demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance while maintaining realistic early warning capabilities.

Lorenzo Caselli, Tomaso Trinci, Tommaso Bianconcini +4

Department of Information Engineering, University of Florence, Italy. · 2Verizon Connect, Florence, Italy.

Autonomous DrivingTraffic Accident AnticipationPredictive Representation Learning
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Jun 8, 2026cs.CV

A VideoMAE-v2 Approach to Zero-Shot Traffic Accident Anticipation

Traffic accident anticipation -- predicting the likelihood of an imminent collision at every frame of a dashcam video -- is safety-critical yet difficult to scale, because collecting in-domain annotated accident footage for every deployment scenario is prohibitively expensive. We study this task under a zero-shot setting where no target-domain training data is available: the model must learn exclusively from a publicly available binary-labelled driving-accident dataset and generalise to unseen dashcam footage. We propose a framework that bridges the gap between the frame-level temporal risk estimation task and coarsely labelled binary accident datasets by coupling a VideoMAE-v2 backbone with a per-frame prediction head under a sliding-window protocol. Our method achieves 2nd place in the 2026 CVPR@AUTOPILOT Zero-Shot Accident Anticipation competition. Code is available at https://github.com/TimeSouth/zero-shot-taa-solution.

Siyuan Li, Xiaoyang Bi, Mengshi Qi

State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology · Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications

Zero-Shot LearningAutonomous DrivingTraffic Accident Anticipation
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Jun 1, 2026cs.CL

PaSBench-Video: A Streaming Video Benchmark for Proactive Safety Warning

Between the first visible sign of danger and the moment an accident occurs, there is often a window where intervention remains possible. Video-capable multimodal large language models (MLLMs) could serve as always-on safety monitors that issue warnings during this window. Yet current benchmarks do not test this ability: they rely on static inputs, ignore timing precision, and omit false-positive measurement on safe scenes. We present PaSBench-Video, a 740-video benchmark with 481 risk and 259 no-risk videos across four domains: driving, healthcare, daily life, and industrial production. Risk videos are annotated with frame-level risk onset and accident boundaries. A model must observe the video causally and produce a warning that is both temporally calibrated and content-correct. Testing 13 MLLMs, we find that no model exceeds 20.0% on our strictest metric, and recall is tightly coupled with false-positive rate, with Pearson correlation 0.64: higher detection comes only at the cost of triggering warnings on the majority of safe clips. Performance splits sharply by domain: models achieve moderate recall at low false-positive rates in daily life, where risks are inherently anomalous, yet fire indiscriminately in driving, where routine and hazardous scenes look alike. These results indicate that current models rely on scene-level activity cues rather than reasoning about emerging harm.

Yusong Zhao, Yuejin Xie, Youliang Yuan +4

The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen · Tsinghua University

Traffic Accident AnticipationVideo-Language ModelsMultimodal Model EvaluationTemporal Video Understanding
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May 27, 2026cs.RO

SARAD: LLM-Based Safety-Aware Hybrid Reinforcement Learning with Collision Prediction for Autonomous Driving

Ensuring both safety and efficiency in decision-making for autonomous driving systems remains a fundamental challenge. Traditional Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) suffers from unsafe random exploration and slow convergence, while Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate inherent latency in real-time inference operations. To address these limitations, this paper proposes SARAD, a novel safety-aware hybrid framework that synergizes LLMs and DRL for autonomous driving. SARAD substitutes the random exploration of DRL with Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG)-enhanced, LLM-guided decisions sourced from a dynamic expert knowledge repository. An attention discriminator is proposed to integrate the prior knowledge of LLMs into DRL policy optimization. A collision predictor module, fine-tuned with historical collision data, is further designed to improve vehicle safety. Extensive experiments show that SARAD achieves significant performance improvements in the Highway-Env simulator, validating the effectiveness of the proposed model in autonomous driving.

Kangyu Wu, Peng Cui, Guoxi Chen +1

School of Automation, Southeast University, Nanjing, China · Key Laboratory of Measurement and Control of Complex Systems of Engineering, Ministry of Education, Nanjing, China

Autonomous DrivingTraffic Accident AnticipationLLM-Guided RLRL for Autonomous DrivingSafe RL
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May 5, 2026cs.LG

Road Risk Monitor: A Deployable U.S. Road Incident Forecasting System with Live Weather and Road-Level Tiles

Nationwide road-incident forecasting is a systems problem before it is a modeling problem. A usable service must connect historical incident archives, historicalandliveweather,nationalroadgeometry, offline model training, tile generation, web serving and runtime handoff. This paper presents Road Risk Monitor, a U.S.-wide road-safety stack that combines a nationwide H3 baseline trained on FARS fatal-crash data with a road-segment forecasting pipeline trained from TIGER/Line geometry and US-Accidents events, then serves predictions through live APIs, raster tiles, JSON road tiles, and a public web application.

Anton Ivchenko

Intelligent Transportation SystemsTraffic Accident AnticipationSpatiotemporal ForecastingTraffic Forecasting
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Apr 29, 2026cs.CV

Learning from the Unseen: Generative Data Augmentation for Geometric-Semantic Accident Anticipation

Anticipating traffic accidents is a critical yet unresolved problem for autonomous driving, hindered by the inherent complexity of modeling interactions between road users and the limited availability of diverse, large-scale datasets. To address these issues, we propose a dual-path framework. On the one hand, we employ a video synthesis pipeline that, guided by structured prompts, derives feature distributions from existing corpora and produces high-fidelity synthetic driving scenes consistent with the statistical patterns of real data. On the other hand, we design a graph neural network enriched with semantic cues, enabling dynamic reasoning over both spatial and semantic relations among participants. To validate the effectiveness of our approach, we release a new benchmark dataset containing standardized, finely annotated video sequences that cover a broad spectrum of regions, weather, and traffic conditions. Evaluations across existing datasets and our new benchmark confirm notable gains in both accuracy and anticipation lead time, highlighting the capacity of the proposed framework to mitigate current data bottlenecks and enhance the reliability of autonomous driving systems.

Yanchen Guan, Haicheng Liao, Chengyue Wang +4

State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City, University of Macau, Macau SAR, 999078, China. · Department of Civil Engineering, University of Macau, Macau SAR, 999078, China. · Department of Computer and Information Science, University of Macau, Macau SAR, 999078, China. +1

Autonomous Driving DatasetsSynthetic Data AugmentationGraph Neural NetworksAutonomous DrivingTraffic Accident Anticipation
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