Uncertainty Quantification

Also known as UQ

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Overview

Uncertainty quantification studies what is unknown in a prediction or inference, where that uncertainty comes from, and how it should affect decisions. Common approaches include Bayesian methods, ensembles and Gaussian processes, which model predictive distributions; conformal prediction, which provides distribution-free coverage guarantees; and calibration methods that adjust confidence or intervals against observed errors. Researchers apply these tools to settings from medical imaging and physical simulations to language models, evaluating calibration, coverage, error detection and performance under distribution shift. A central challenge is that well-calibrated or narrow estimates do not always identify actual failures, so methods must be tested in the conditions and for the decisions where they will be used, while balancing reliability against computational cost.

Latest papers

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663 papers58 papers in the last four weeks, level with the four weeks before. 0.3% of all new papers.

  1. Online Conformal Prediction with Adversarial Semi-bandit Feedback via Regret Minimization

    Apr 20, 2026Junyoung Yang, Kyungmin Kim, Sangdon ParkUncertainty QuantificationConformal Prediction

    GSAI POSTECH · GSAI & CSE POSTECH

  2. Trustworthy deep domain adaptation for wearable photoplethysmography signal analysis with decision-theoretic uncertainty quantification

    Apr 19, 2026Ciaran BenchUncertainty QuantificationDomain Adaptation

    Department of Data Science and AI National Physical Laboratory Teddington, UK

  3. Uncertainty Quantification in PINNs for Turbulent Flows: Bayesian Inference and Repulsive Ensembles

    Apr 18, 2026Khemraj Shukla, Zongren Zou, Theo Kaeufer +2Uncertainty QuantificationDeep Ensembles

    Division of Applied Mathematics, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA · Department of Computing and Mathematical Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA · Department of Mechanical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA

  4. Reference-state System Reliability method for scalable uncertainty quantification of coherent systems

    Apr 18, 2026Ji-Eun Byun, Hyeuk Ryu, Junho SongUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, United Kingdom · Geoscience Australia, Australia · Department of Civil, Urban, and Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University, South Korea

  5. SentryVLA: Uncertainty-Guided Action Selection and State Monitoring for Vision-Language-Action Robotic Control

    Apr 17, 2026Zongyao Lyu, Lingling Chen, William J. BeksiUncertainty Estimation for VLA ModelsRobot Failure Detection

    Department of Computer Science and Engineering, The University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX, USA.

  6. SegWithU: Uncertainty as Perturbation Energy for Single-Forward-Pass Risk-Aware Medical Image Segmentation

    Apr 16, 2026Tianhao Fu, Austin Wang, Charles Chen +2Image SegmentationUncertainty Quantification

    University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada · Vector Institute, Toronto, ON, Canada · Project Neura, Toronto, ON, Canada +4

  7. IUQ: Interrogative Uncertainty Quantification for Long-Form Large Language Model Generation

    Apr 16, 2026Haozhi Fan, Jinhao Duan, Kaidi XuUncertainty QuantificationLanguage Model Generation Evaluation

    University of Pennsylvania · 2UNC Chapel Hill · 3City University of Hong Kong

  8. xFODE+: Explainable Type-2 Fuzzy Additive ODEs for Uncertainty Quantification

    Apr 16, 2026Ertugrul Kececi, Tufan KumbasarUncertainty QuantificationFuzzy Logic

    AI and Intelligent Systems Laboratory, Istanbul Technical University, 34469, Istanbul, Türkiye

  9. FAIR Universe Weak Lensing ML Uncertainty Challenge: Handling Uncertainties and Distribution Shifts for Precision Cosmology

    Apr 15, 2026Biwei Dai, Po-Wen Chang, Wahid Bhimji +15Uncertainty QuantificationDistribution Shift Robustness

    Institute for Advanced Study · Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory · Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS/IN2P3, IJCLab +7

  10. Post-Hoc Uncertainty-Aware Explanations for Deployed Power Quality Disturbance Classifiers via Laplace Approximation

    Apr 15, 2026Yinsong Chen, Samson S. Yu, Kashem M. MuttaqiExplainable Artificial IntelligenceFeature Attribution

    School of Engineering, Deakin University, Melbourne, 3216, VIC, Australia · ARC Training Centre in Energy Technologies for Future Grids, School of Engineering, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, 2522, NSW, Australia

  11. Monte Carlo Stochastic Depth for Uncertainty Estimation in Deep Learning

    Apr 14, 2026Adam T. Müller, Tobias Rögelein, Nicolaj C. StacheUncertainty QuantificationUncertainty Calibration

    Heilbronn University of Applied Sciences, Germany

  12. Information-Theoretic Optimization for Task-Adapted Compressed Sensing Magnetic Resonance Imaging

    Apr 14, 2026Xinyu Peng, Ziyang Zheng, Wenrui Dai +5Magnetic Resonance ImagingCompressed Sensing

    Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China. · Department of Electronic Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China. · Department of Computer Science, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China. +1

  13. Calibrated Confidence Estimation for Tabular Question Answering

    Apr 14, 2026Lukas VossConfidence Estimation in Language ModelsLanguage Model Calibration

    Independent Researcher

  14. A Robust Evaluation of Probe Robustness: Lessons for Reliable OOD Uncertainty Quantification

    Apr 13, 2026Joe Stacey, Hadas Orgad, Kentaro Inui +2LLM EvaluationUncertainty Quantification

    University of Sheffield · Kempner Institute at Harvard University · MBZUAI +2

  15. Uncertainty-quantified Pulse Signal Recovery from Facial Video using Regularized Stochastic Interpolants

    Apr 12, 2026Vineet R. Shenoy, Cheng Peng, Rama Chellappa +1Remote PhotoplethysmographyUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Johns Hopkins University · School of Data Science, University of Virginia

  16. Why Don't You Know? Evaluating the Impact of Uncertainty Sources on Uncertainty Quantification in LLMs

    Apr 12, 2026Maiya Goloburda, Roman Vashurin, Fedor Chernogorskii +4Uncertainty QuantificationLLM Uncertainty Estimation

    Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence

  17. Uncertainty Quantification in CNN Through the Bootstrap of Convex Neural Networks

    Apr 11, 2026Hongfei Du, Emre Barut, Fang JinUncertainty QuantificationConvolutional Neural Networks

    The George Washington University · Amazon.com, Inc.

  18. Are Independently Estimated View Uncertainties Comparable? Unified Routing for Trusted Multi-View Classification

    Apr 10, 2026Yilin Zhang, Cai Xu, Haishun Chen +2Evidential Deep LearningUncertainty Quantification

    Xidian University, Xi’an, China

  19. Accurate and Reliable Uncertainty Estimates for Deterministic Predictions Extensions to Under and Overpredictions

    Apr 9, 2026Rileigh Bandy, Enrico Camporeale, Andong Hu +2Distributional RegressionUncertainty Quantification

    Optimization and Uncertainty Quantification Department, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM · School of Physical and Chemical Sciences, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK and Space Weather Technology, Research and Education Center, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO · Space Weather Technology, Research and Education Center, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO +2

  20. Every Response Counts: Quantifying Uncertainty of LLM-based Multi-Agent Systems through Tensor Decomposition

    Apr 9, 2026Tiejin Chen, Huaiyuan Yao, Jia Chen +2Uncertainty QuantificationAI Agent Reliability

    Arizona State University · University of California, Riverside

  21. VOLTA: The Surprising Ineffectiveness of Auxiliary Losses for Calibrated Deep Learning

    Apr 9, 2026Rahul D Ray, Utkarsh SrivastavaUncertainty QuantificationUncertainty Calibration

    Department of Electronics & Electrical Engineering BITS Pilani, Hyderabad Campus. · Department of Economics & Finance BITS Pilani, Hyderabad Campus

  22. Evidential Transformation Network: Turning Pretrained Models into Evidential Models for Post-hoc Uncertainty Estimation

    Apr 9, 2026Yongchan Chun, Chanhee Park, Jeongho Yoon +2Uncertainty QuantificationEvidential Deep Learning

    Korea University · Konkuk University

  23. ELC: Evidential Lifelong Classifier for Uncertainty Aware Radar Pulse Classification

    Apr 8, 2026Mohamed Rabie, Chinthana Panagamuwa, Konstantinos G. KyriakopoulosClassificationUncertainty Quantification

    Wolfson School of Mechanical, Electrical and Manufacturing Engineering, Loughborough University, U.K.

  24. AGSC: Adaptive Granularity and Semantic Clustering for Uncertainty Quantification in Long-text Generation

    Apr 8, 2026Guanran Luo, Wentao Qiu, Wanru Zhao +4Semantic ClusteringUncertainty Quantification

    School of Informatics, Xiamen University

  25. Uncertainty Estimation for Deep Reconstruction in Actuatic Disaster Scenarios with Autonomous Vehicles

    Apr 7, 2026Samuel Yanes Luis, Alejandro Casado Pérez, Alejandro Mendoza Barrionuevo +3Uncertainty QuantificationUncertainty Calibration

    Department of Electronic Technology, University of Sevilla, Av. de la Reina Mercedes S/N, 41012, Sevilla, Spain. · Department of Electronic Engineering, University of Sevilla, Av. de los Descubrimientos S/N, 41005, Sevilla, Spain.

  26. A machine learning framework for uncovering stochastic nonlinear dynamics from noisy data

    Apr 7, 2026Matteo Bosso, Giovanni Franzese, Kushal Swamy +3Nonlinear System IdentificationSymbolic Regression

  27. Ensemble-Based Dirichlet Modeling for Predictive Uncertainty and Selective Classification

    Apr 7, 2026Courtney Franzen, Farhad Pourkamali-AnarakiUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Mathematical and Statistical Science, University of Colorado Denver, Denver, 80208, CO, USA,. · Department of Mathematical and Statistical Science, University of Colorado Denver, Denver, 80208, CO, USA.

  28. Handbook of Rough Set Extensions and Uncertainty Models

    Apr 7, 2026Takaaki Fujita, Florentin SmarandacheUncertainty Quantification

    Neutrosophic Science International Association (NSIA) Publishing House Gallup - Guayaquil United States of America – Ecuador

  29. Sparse Gain Radio Map Reconstruction With Geometry Priors and Uncertainty-Guided Measurement Selection

    Apr 7, 2026Zhihan Zeng, Ning Wei, Kaihe Wang +4Radio Propagation ModelingActive Sensing

    National Key Laboratory of Wireless Communications, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China (UESTC), Chengdu 611731, China · University of Electronic Science and Technology of China (UESTC), Chengdu 611731, China · School of Science, Technology and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast, Moreton Bay Campus, Petrie, QLD 4502, Australia +1

  30. Sampling Parallelism for Fast and Efficient Bayesian Learning

    Apr 6, 2026Asena Karolin Özdemir, Lars H. Heyen, Arvid Weyrauch +3Bayesian Neural NetworksMemory-Efficient Training

    Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Karlsruhe, Germany · Helmholtz AI