Conformal Prediction

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55 papers in the last four weeks, up 57% on the four weeks before. 0.3% of all new papers.

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  1. CS-WCP: Robust Conformal Sets for LLM-Judge Traffic Shifts with Uncertain Group Proportions

    Aug 23, 2026Ibne Farabi Shihab, Fariya AfrinConformal PredictionWeighted Conformal Prediction

    Department of Computer Science, Iowa State University · Department of Computer Science, Kalinga Institute of Industrial Technology

  2. Reaching the Tail: Calibration Diversity Drives Conformal Coverage under Data Scarcity

    Aug 21, 2026Donald AadithiyanConformal PredictionAdaptive Conformal Inference

    Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Moratuwa, Moratuwa, Sri Lanka

  3. SPARC: Single-Pass Scaling for Motion Forecasting with Conformal Bayesian Last Layers

    Aug 21, 2026Sakif Hossain, Julian Teusch, Jörg P. MüllerHuman Motion PredictionUncertainty Calibration

    Clausthal University of Technology (TU Clausthal)

  4. CAS: Conformalized Agentic Search via Adaptive Retrieval and Policy Weighting

    Aug 21, 2026Zixi Zhu, Jiayuan Su, Jian Zhang +2Agentic SearchLLM Agent Reliability

    ZJU-UIUC Institute, Zhejiang University. · Tencent Inc. · State Key Laboratory of CAD&CG, Zhejiang University.

  5. Does Marginal Coverage Guarantee Class-Conditional Safety for Zero-Shot VLMs Under Shift?

    Aug 19, 2026Jai Kumar Sharma, Amartya DuttaConformal PredictionVLM Evaluation

    Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA

  6. When Clean Signals Are Not Enough: Detecting Structural Ambiguity for Safe Wearable Stress Classification

    Aug 19, 2026Saba A. Farahani, Hung Cao, Amir M. RahmaniWearable Health MonitoringSelective Prediction

    University of California, Irvine Irvine, CA, USA

  7. Conformal Prediction for Molecular Properties under Label Shift

    Aug 18, 2026Hyeonsu Lee, Juyeon Kim, Erkhembayar Jadamba +2Conformal PredictionLabel Shift

    Mogam Institute for Biomedical Research · Intellicode

  8. SPACE: Sample-cloud Predictive Adaptive Conformal Ellipsoids for Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting

    Aug 18, 2026Baishi Li, Kelvin J. L. Koa, Ke-Wei HuangConformal PredictionMultivariate Time Series Forecasting

    Department of Information Systems and Analytics, National University of Singapore · Asian Institute of Digital Finance, National University of Singapore

  9. Temporal Graph Prototype-conditioned Conformal Prediction for Fraud Detection

    Aug 16, 2026Xudong Chen, Shengbo Gong, Lu Cheng +1Conformal PredictionFinancial Fraud Detection

    Emory University Atlanta, USA · University of Illinois at Chicago Chicago, IL, USA

  10. SCORE: Shape-Conforming Regions for Flight in Enclosed, Degraded Environments

    Aug 15, 2026Eric Minwoo Kim, Jong-Kook KimUAV NavigationRobotics

    School of Electrical Engineering, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea

  11. Confidence Calibration of Deep Learning Systems

    Aug 12, 2026Coby PensoUnsupervised Domain AdaptationConformal Prediction

    The Faculty of Engineering, Bar-Ilan University, Ramat Gan, Israel

  12. Retrieval-Corrected Conformal Prediction for Time Series

    Aug 11, 2026Sangjin Jin, Kangmin Kim, Junhyeong Lee +1Time Series ForecastingConformal Prediction

    Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology Ulsan, Republic of Korea

  13. Particle-Based Conformal Prediction for Contact-Aware Uncertainty Calibration in Stratified Configuration Spaces

    Aug 10, 2026Luís Marques, Kristian Popov, Dmitry BerensonContact-Rich Robotic ManipulationConformal Prediction

    Department of Robotics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109, USA · Department of Aerospace Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109, USA

  14. ARC: Augmented-Rank Conformalization for Changepoint Localization --- Finite-Sample Validity and Distribution-Robust Efficiency

    Aug 9, 2026Chenchen Peng, Mixia Wu, Qijing Yan +2Confidence Region EstimationConformal Prediction

    School of Mathematics, Statistics and Mechanics, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China · College of Computing and Data Science, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798, Singapore

  15. CoCoNav: Conformal Control for Safe Robot Navigation in Crowds

    Aug 7, 2026Cheng Guo, Mingzhe Ni, Zheng Liang +5Constrained Motion PlanningConformal Prediction

    Department of Computer Science, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK. · Human-Robot Interfaces and Interaction Laboratory, Italian Institute of Technology, Genoa, Italy. · Genisom AI, Shanghai, China. +3

  16. Conformal Coverage Guarantees for Any Video Temporal Grounder

    Aug 7, 2026Aseel Mohamed, Rasul Khanbayov, Erchin Serpedin +1Temporal Video GroundingUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Texas A&M University at Qatar, Doha, Qatar · College of Science and Engineering, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Doha, Qatar · Department of Computer and Electrical Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA

  17. Conformal Fusion Under Missing Modalities

    Aug 7, 2026Alireza MoayedikiaMissing-Modality LearningGroup-Conditional Conformal Prediction

    Department of Business Technology and Entrepreneurship Swinburne University of Technology Hawthorn, VIC 3122, Australia

  18. Online Conformal Prediction Beyond Feedback

    Aug 7, 2026Joar Skalse, Edoardo Pona, Osvaldo Simeone +1Uncertainty QuantificationConformal Prediction

    King’s College London · Northeastern University London

  19. CertBind from Multimodal Connectivity to Certifiable Retrieval Decisions

    Aug 6, 2026Shuheng Cao, Zhenhao Zhang, Ruiqi Chen +7Selective PredictionConformal Prediction

    University of California, San Diego · ShanghaiTech University · Tsinghua University +5

  20. Beyond Marginal Validity: Finite-Sample Guarantees for Localized Conformal Prediction

    Aug 6, 2026Anton Conrad, Rustam Isaev, Denis Belomestny +2Conformal PredictionStatistical Learning Theory

    Laboratoire de Recherche d’EPITA, 14–16 rue Voltaire, 94276 Le Kremlin-Bicêtre CEDEX, France · Faculty of Computer Science, HSE University, 11 Pokrovsky Boulevard, Moscow 109028, Russia · Faculty of Computational Mathematics and Cybernetics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, 1 Leninskie Gory, Building 52, Moscow 119991, Russia +2

  21. Hybrid Probabilistic Zonotopes for Identifiable and Refinable Predictive Uncertainty

    Aug 5, 2026Zhen Zhang, Amr AlanwarUncertainty QuantificationProbabilistic Forecasting

    School of Computation, Information and Technology, Technical University of Munich, Germany

  22. Distribution-Free Conformal Prediction for Steel Fatigue Strength: Marginal Validity Is Not Enough

    Aug 5, 2026Irene BoruahConformal PredictionMaterials Property Prediction

    Department of Mechanical Engineering, Dibrugarh University Institute of Engineering and Technology, Dibrugarh, 786004, Assam, India.

  23. Post-Hoc Trajectory-Risk Certification for Modular LLM-Based Security Agents

    Aug 4, 2026Zhenpeng LiIoT Intrusion DetectionCybersecurity

    Guangzhou Health Science College, No. 248 Guangyuan Middle Road, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510405, China

  24. Conformalized Large Language Models under Configuration Shift

    Aug 2, 2026Yuqicheng Zhu, Jialin Yu, Lin Li +7Conformal PredictionLanguage Model Calibration

    University of Stuttgart · Robert Bosch GmbH · University of Oxford +4

  25. Who Wins Where? Conformal Model Comparison for Local Superiority

    Jul 31, 2026Yi Zhou, Baishi Li, Xuan Yao +1Model SelectionSelective Prediction

    Asian Institute of Digital Finance, National University of Singapore

  26. Mitigating Class-Tail Undercoverage in Medical Vision-Language Models under Clinical Shift

    Jul 30, 2026Mushir Akhtar, M. TanveerGroup-Conditional Conformal PredictionConformal Prediction

    Department of Mathematics, Indian Institute of Technology Indore, India

  27. Cost-Sensitive Conformal Prediction and Human-in-the-Loop Abstention for Imbalanced High-Stakes Decision Support: A Multi-Domain Benchmark

    Jul 29, 2026Manpreet Singh, Akshatha Srikantha, Shyamal LakhanpalClass-Imbalanced LearningCost-Sensitive Learning

  28. Simultaneous Coverage and Efficiency Guarantee in Online Conformal Prediction

    Jul 29, 2026Rahul VazeSet PredictionConformal Prediction

    Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, Mumbai

  29. Conformal Changepoint Localization and Root Cause Analysis with Corrupted Observations

    Jul 29, 2026Seunghun Yu, Meiyi Zhu, Petar Popovski +2Conformal PredictionChange-Point Detection

    Department of Electrical Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon 34141, South Korea · Department of Engineering, King’s College London, WC2R 2LS, London, U.K. · Department of Electronic Systems, Aalborg University, 9220 Aalborg, Denmark +2

  30. HeAD-CP: Heterophily-Aware Diffused Conformal Prediction Sets for Graph Neural Networks

    Jul 28, 2026Phan Binh Nguyen Lam, Nguyen Thai AnhGraph Neural NetworksConformal Prediction

    Faculty of Information Technology, University of Science, Vietnam National University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam · Faculty of Information Technology, Van Lang School of Technology, Van Lang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam