Conformal Prediction

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55 papers in the last four weeks, up 57% on the four weeks before. 0.3% of all new papers.

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  1. Reliable Conformal Prediction for Ordinal Classification Using the Ranked Probability Score

    Jun 23, 2026Stefan Haas, Luca Killmaier, Alireza Javanmardi +1Conformal PredictionOrdinal Regression

    Institute of Informatics, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany · BMW Group, Munich, Germany · Munich Center for Machine Learning (MCML), Munich, Germany +1

  2. Conformal Orbit-Valid Trust Horizons for Equivariant World Models

    Jun 23, 2026Hongbo WangEquivariant Neural NetworksConformal Prediction

    Department of Mathematics, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794, USA

  3. Null-Calibrated Conformal Selection via Target-Membership Scores

    Jun 21, 2026Seungjin ChoiFDR ControlConformal Prediction

    CROID Research and aSSIST University, Korea

  4. SCOPE: Sequential Conformal Probing for Reliable OOD Rejection in LLM Services

    Jun 19, 2026Zhuoyun Li, Boxuan Wang, Changshun Wu +2Conformal PredictionOOD Detection

    School of Computer Science and Informatics, University of Liverpool, United Kingdom

  5. Betting on Moments: Legendre Jumper Martingales for Online Exchangeability Testing

    Jun 18, 2026Johan Hallberg SzabadváryConformal PredictionDistribution Shift Detection

    Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University

  6. When Calibration Fails the Vulnerable Hospital: Federated Conformal Risk Control via Risk-Curve Shrinkage

    Jun 18, 2026Nafis Fuad ShahidConformal PredictionConformal Risk Control

    Dhaka, Bangladesh

  7. Show, Don't Ask: Generative Visual Disambiguation for Composed Image Retrieval with Turn-Valid Coverage

    Jun 17, 2026Amsisan Tran, Baogh Le, Tuan Kiet Pham +1Conformal PredictionVisual Search

    [cs.CV]

  8. Filtered Conformal Ellipsoids for Graph-Native Time Series

    Jun 15, 2026Yannick LimmerConfidence Region EstimationConformal Prediction

    DRW · London, United Kingdom

  9. Look Again Before You Abstain:Budgeted Conformal Evidence Acquisition for Reliable Vision-Language Model

    Jun 15, 2026Jian Xu, Delu Zeng, John Paisley +1Hallucination Detection in VLMsActive Perception

    RIKEN iTHEMS · RIKEN AIP · South China University of Technology +1

  10. Simulation-Augmented Multi-Step Split Conformal Prediction for Aggregated Forecasts

    Jun 15, 2026Andro SabashviliUncertainty QuantificationTime Series Forecasting

  11. PromptShift-CRC: Drift-Aware Conformal Risk Control for Foundation Models Under Prompt and Domain Shift

    Jun 14, 2026Jeffery Opoku, David BanaheneConformal PredictionLanguage Model Calibration

    The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Edinburg, TX, USA · Florida International University, Miami, FL, USA

  12. Spectral Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Structured Non-Exchangeable Data

    Jun 14, 2026Jeffery Opoku, David BanaheneWeighted Conformal PredictionConformal Prediction

    aUniversity of Texas Rio Grande Valley, United States · bFlorida International University, United States

  13. Robust Conformal CBF and CLF Controllers via Iterative Policy Updates

    Jun 13, 2026Omid Mirzaeedodangeh, Eliot Shekhtman, Nikolai Matni +1Distribution Shift RobustnessLyapunov-Based Control

    1Automatic Control Laboratory, ETH Zürich, Switzerland. · 2Computer and Information Science, University of Pennsylvania, USA. · 3Electrical and Systems Engineering, University of Pennsylvania, USA.

  14. Conformal Candidate Certification for Offline Model-Based Optimization

    Jun 13, 2026Seungjin ChoiWeighted Conformal PredictionDistribution Shift

    CROID Research and aSSIST University, Seoul, Korea.

  15. Audited Conformal Prediction for Classification under Unknown Distribution Shift

    Jun 12, 2026Yanfei Zhou, Rizal Fathony, Nam H. Nguyen +1Distribution Shift RobustnessUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Data Sciences and Operations University of Southern California Los Angeles, CA 90089 · AI Foundations, Capital One New York, NY 10017 · Department of Data Sciences and Operations Thomas Lord Department of Computer Science University of Southern California Los Angeles, CA 90089

  16. Conformal calibration and look-elsewhere effect in anomaly detection for new-physics searches

    Jun 11, 2026Jack Y. Araz, Michael SpannowskyPost-Hoc CalibrationConformal Prediction

    Department of Physics and Astronomy, University College London, London, WC1E 6B, UK · Department of Engineering, City St. George’s, University of London, London, EC1V 0HB, UK · Institute for Theoretical Physics, Campus Süd, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), D-76128 Karlsruhe, Germany +1

  17. Policy-driven Conformal Prediction for Trustworthy QoT Estimation

    Jun 10, 2026Kiarash Rezaei, Omran Ayoub, Paolo Monti +1Distribution Shift RobustnessConformal Prediction

    Department of Electrical Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology, 412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden · University of Applied Sciences and Arts of Southern Switzerland, 6928 Lugano, Switzerland

  18. Online Shift Detection and Conformal Adaptation for Deployed Safety Classifiers

    Jun 10, 2026Jun Wen LeongDistribution ShiftConformal Prediction

  19. Conformal Bayes under Label Shift: Post-Hoc Calibration vs. In-Training Adaptation

    Jun 10, 2026Seungjin ChoiWeighted Conformal PredictionLabel Shift

    1CROID Research and aSSIST University, Seoul, Korea.

  20. Generalized Conformal Predictive Systems Under Distributional Shifts

    Jun 9, 2026Jef Jonkers, Johanna ZiegelDistribution Shift RobustnessWeighted Conformal Prediction

    IDLab Department of Electronics and Information Systems Ghent University Ghent, Belgium · Seminar for Statistics ETH Zurich Zurich, Switzerland

  21. SPACR: Single-Pass Adaptive Training of Uncertainty-Aware Conformal Regressors

    Jun 9, 2026Soundouss Messoudi, Sylvain Rousseau, Sébastien DesterckeConformal PredictionAdaptive Conformal Inference

    Heudiasyc - UMR CNRS 7253, Université de Technologie de Compiègne

  22. Decision-Calibrated Conformal Uncertainty for Pacing Decisions in Streaming Advertising

    Jun 8, 2026Prashant Shekhar, Caroline HowardSequential Decision MakingOnline Advertising

    Department of Mathematics Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Daytona Beach, FL, USA

  23. Report the Floor: A Training-Free Conformal Interval Is a Mandatory Baseline for Probabilistic Time-Series Forecasting

    Jun 8, 2026Valery ManokhinTime Series ForecastingForecasting Benchmarks

    Independent researcher.

  24. Data augmented bootstrap: Unifying confidence interval construction by approximate invariance

    Jun 8, 2026Kevin Han HuangConfidence Region EstimationUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Statistics, University of Warwick

  25. Inference-Time Conformal Reasoning with Valid Factuality Control for Large Language Models

    Jun 7, 2026Ting Wang, Yuanjie Shi, Yan Yan +1LLM InferenceLLM Reasoning with Graphs

    University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign · School of EECS, Washington State University.

  26. Operator learning for the 2D incompressible Navier-Stokes equations: a conformal prediction approach in the data-scarce regime

    Jun 7, 2026Weinan Wang, Bowen Gang, Hao DengUncertainty QuantificationConformal Prediction

    Department of Mathematics, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA · Department of Statistics and Data Science, School of Management, Fudan University, Shanghai, China

  27. Conformal Prediction for Neural Operators: Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification in Physics Simulation

    Jun 7, 2026Michael ChinUncertainty QuantificationPDE Surrogate Modeling

    Independent Researcher

  28. Beyond Point Estimates: Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification Methods on the AION-1 Astronomical Foundation Model

    Jun 5, 2026Karla Tame-Narvaez, Aleksandra Ćiprijanović, Shubhendu TrivediUncertainty QuantificationAI-Assisted Scientific Research

    Scientific Computing Division Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory Batavia, IL 60510 · Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics University of Chicago Chicago, IL 60637 · Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory Batavia, IL 60510 +1

  29. Conformal Risk-Averse Decision Making with Action Conditional Guarantee

    Jun 4, 2026Zihan Zhu, Shayan Kiyani, George Pappas +1Group-Conditional Conformal PredictionConformal Prediction

    University of Pennsylvania

  30. Conformal Language Modeling via Posterior Sampling

    Jun 2, 2026Nicolas Emmenegger, Theo X. Olausson, Armando Solar-Lezama +1Hallucination in Language ModelsConformal Prediction

    Massachusetts Institute of Technology