Conformal Prediction

Follow this topic Ask about this topic

Latest papers 334

55 papers in the last four weeks, up 57% on the four weeks before. 0.3% of all new papers.

All topics

When Does Trimming Help Conformal Prediction? A Retained-Law Diagnostic under Calibration Contamination
May 7, 2026Congye WangConformal Prediction Data Contamination
Newcastle University
Online Localized Conformal Prediction
May 6, 2026Yuheng Lai, Garvesh RaskuttiConformal Prediction
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Delving into Non-Exchangeability for Conformal Prediction in Graph-Structured Multivariate Time Series
May 6, 2026Ruichao Guo, Xingyao Han, Luo Wenshui +3Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Conformal Prediction
School of Automation and Intelligent Sensing, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
Multimodal Learning on Low-Quality Data with Conformal Predictive Self-Calibration
May 5, 2026Xun Jiang, Yufan Gu, Disen Hu +5Multimodal Robustness Modality Imbalance
School of Computer Science and Technology, Tongji University · School of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China · Independent Researcher +1
Training-Free Probabilistic Time-Series Forecasting with Conformal Seasonal Pools
May 5, 2026Valery ManokhinTime Series Forecasting Conformal Prediction
Independent researcher.
Conformalized Percentile Interval: Finite Sample Validity and Improved Conditional Performance
May 4, 2026Ran Zou, Wanrong Zhu, Bin NanProbability Calibration Group-Conditional Conformal Prediction
Department of Statistics, University of California, Irvine
Weight Clipping for Robust Conformal Inference under Unbounded Covariate Shifts
May 3, 2026James Wang, Surbhi GoelDistribution Shift Robustness Weighted Conformal Prediction
Department of Computer and Information Science, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA.
Robust Conditional Conformal Prediction via Branched Normalizing Flow
May 3, 2026Rui Xu, Xingyuan Chen, Wenxing Huang +4Distribution Shift Robustness Normalizing Flows
Information Hub, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou) · The Second Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University
Stable Localized Conformal Prediction via Transduction
May 2, 2026Yinjie Min, Liuhua Peng, Changliang ZouConformal Prediction
School of Statistics and Data Science, Nankai University, Tianjin, China · School of Mathematics & Statistics, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
Optimal Spatio-Temporal Decoupling for Bayesian Conformal Prediction
May 1, 2026Yu-Hsueh Fang, Chia-Yen LeeConformal Prediction Temporal Distribution Shift
Department of Information Management, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt Rd., Da’an Dist., Taipei, 106216, Taiwan.
Adaptive Geodesic Conformal Prediction for Egocentric Camera Pose Estimation
Apr 30, 2026Aishani Pathak, Hasti SeifiUncertainty Quantification Camera Pose Estimation
Arizona State University
Geometry-Calibrated Conformal Abstention for Language Models
Apr 30, 2026Rui Xu, Yi Chen, Sihong Xie +1Uncertainty Quantification Selective Prediction
Information Hub, AI Thrust Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou) Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
ConformaDecompose: Explaining Uncertainty via Calibration Localization
Apr 29, 2026Fatima Rabia Yapicioglu, Meltem Aksoy, Alberto Rigenti +4Uncertainty Quantification Conformal Prediction
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Bologna, Italy · Marketing and Sales, Automobili Lamborghini S.p.A, Sant’Agata Bolognese, Italy · RCT Data Science and Security, Technical University Dortmund, Germany +4
VLM Judges Can Rank but Cannot Score: Task-Dependent Uncertainty in Multimodal Evaluation
Apr 28, 2026Divake Kumar, Sina Tayebati, Devashri Naik +2VLM Evaluation Vision-Language Models
University of Illinois at Chicago · 2AI Labs at Capital One
Continual Calibration: Coverage Can Collapse Before Accuracy in Lifelong LLM Fine-Tuning
Apr 27, 2026Ibne Farabi Shihab, Sanjeda Akter, Anuj SharmaContinual Learning for LLMs Conformal Prediction
Department of Computer Science, Iowa State University · Department of Civil, Construction & Environmental Engineering, Iowa State University
Conformalized Super Learner
Apr 24, 2026Zhanli Wu, Fabrizio Leisen, Miguel-Angel Luque-Fernandez +1Ensemble Learning Conformal Prediction
Department of Mathematics King’s College London London, UK · Department of Statistics and Operations Research University of Granada Granada, Spain · Department of Statistical Science University College London London, UK
A Kernel Nonconformity Score for Multivariate Conformal Prediction
Apr 23, 2026Louis Meyer, Wenkai XuConformal Prediction Kernel Methods
University of Warwick
Adaptive Conformal Anomaly Detection with Time Series Foundation Models for Signal Monitoring
Apr 22, 2026Natalia Martinez Gil, Fearghal O'Donncha, Wesley M. Gifford +3Interpretable Anomaly Detection Industrial Anomaly Detection
IBM Research
Differentiable Conformal Training for LLM Reasoning Factuality
Apr 22, 2026Nathan Hittesdorf, Marco Salzetta, Lu ChengLLM Hallucination Mitigation Conformal Prediction
Department of Computer Science, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, United States · Department of Physics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, United States
Safe Control using Learned Safety Filters and Adaptive Conformal Inference
Apr 20, 2026Sacha Huriot, Ihab Tabbara, Hussein SibaiSafety-Critical Control Conformal Prediction
Computer Science & Engineering Washington University in St. Louis
Conformal Robust Set Estimation
Apr 20, 2026Alejandro Cholaquidis, Emilien Joly, Leonardo MorenoConformal Prediction Robust Estimation
*Centro de Matem´atica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la Rep´ublica, Uruguay · †Centro de Investigaci´on en Matem´aticas (CIMAT), M´exico · ‡Departamento de M´etodos Cuantitativos, Facultad de Ciencias Econ´omicas y de Administraci´on, Universidad de la Rep´ublica, Uruguay
Online Conformal Prediction with Adversarial Semi-bandit Feedback via Regret Minimization
Apr 20, 2026Junyoung Yang, Kyungmin Kim, Sangdon ParkUncertainty Quantification Conformal Prediction
GSAI POSTECH · GSAI & CSE POSTECH
ReconVLA: An Uncertainty-Guided and Failure-Aware Vision-Language-Action Framework for Robotic Control
Apr 17, 2026Lingling Chen, Zongyao Lyu, William J. BeksiUncertainty Estimation for VLA Models Robot Failure Detection
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, The University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX, USA
Beyond Surface Statistics: Robust Conformal Prediction for LLMs via Internal Representations
Apr 17, 2026Yanli Wang, Peng Kuang, Xiaoyu Han +2Confidence Estimation in Language Models Conformal Prediction
Imperial College London · Zhejiang University · University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign +1
Vision-Based Safe Human-Robot Collaboration with Uncertainty Guarantees
Apr 16, 2026Jakob Thumm, Marian Frei, Tianle Ni +2Conformal Prediction Robot Safety
Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Stanford University · Chair of Imaging and Computer Vision, RWTH Aachen University · School of Artificial Intelligence, Shanghai Jiao Tong University +1
Differentially Private Conformal Prediction
Apr 16, 2026Jiamei Wu, Ce Zhang, Zhipeng Cai +4Conformal Prediction Differential Privacy
School of Mathematics and Statistics Beijing Jiaotong University Beijing, Beijing 100044, China · Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences University of Alberta Edmonton, AB T6G 2G1, Canada
PAC-CF: Calibrating Irreversible Frontier Pruning in LLM-Guided Search
Apr 15, 2026Tianhao Qian, Jiayu Chen, Zhenyu Sun +1LLM Inference Efficiency Inference-Time Search
The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen · The University of Hong Kong · TikTok
Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Improving Factuality of Generations by Large Language Models
Apr 15, 2026Aleksandr Rubashevskii, Dzianis Piatrashyn, Preslav Nakov +1Conformal Prediction Language Model Calibration
Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence (MBZUAI), Abu Dhabi, UAE
Quantifying and Understanding Uncertainty in Large Reasoning Models
Apr 15, 2026Yangyi Li, Chenxu Zhao, Mengdi HuaiLLM Uncertainty Estimation Large Reasoning Models
Department of Computer Science, Iowa State University
Bias-Corrected Adaptive Conformal Inference for Multi-Horizon Time Series Forecasting
Apr 14, 2026Ankit Lade, Sai Krishna J., Indar KumarAdaptive Conformal Inference Time Series Forecasting

May 7, 2026J/K move · Enter open · S save

When Does Trimming Help Conformal Prediction? A Retained-Law Diagnostic under Calibration Contamination

Congye Wang

Newcastle University

Conformal Prediction Data Contamination

Open paper AskPDF arXiv

Trimming suspicious calibration points is a common response to contamination in conformal prediction. Its effect on clean-target coverage, however, is governed by the retained law induced by trimming, not by the contamination level alone. We analyse fixed-threshold trimming as conditioning rather than purification. It replaces the contaminated calibration law with a retained law, reducing clean-target coverage to a one-dimensional score-CDF transfer problem with an exact finite-sample identity. A componentwise bound on the transfer gap gives a population-level diagnostic. This separates a clean-side covariance cost from a retained-contamination cost, governed by the dirty-to-clean retention ratio. Trimming helps when the anomaly score separates retention probabilities while remaining score-neutral on the clean population. Otherwise, it cannot substantially reduce contamination through the retained mixture coefficient. We also give finite-sample certificate templates that provide numerical guarantees under independent audit.