Conformal Risk Control

Follow this topic Ask about this topic

Latest papers 57

6 papers in the last four weeks, level with the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

All topics

Conformal Certification of Reasoning Trace Prefixes
May 28, 2026Matt Y. Cheung, Ashok Veeraraghavan, Hanjie Chen +1Conformal Prediction Language Model Calibration
Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering, Rice University · Department of Computer Science, Rice University
Conf-Gen: Conformal Uncertainty Quantification for Generative Models
May 27, 2026Gabriel Loaiza-Ganem, Kevin Zhang, Wei Cui +2Uncertainty Quantification Conformal Prediction
Layer 6 AI, Toronto, Canada
SAFEVPR: Patch-Based Conformal Verification for Safe Cross-Condition Sequence Visual Place Recognition
May 27, 2026Ha Sier, Jiaqiang Zhang, Zhuo Zou +2Distribution Shift Visual Place Recognition
Turku Intelligent Embedded and Robotic Systems (TIERS) Lab, University of Turku, Turku, Finland · School of Information Science and Technology, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
MiRD: Reliable Set-Valued Prediction for Open-Ended Question Answering via Miscoverage Risk Decomposition
May 25, 2026Anqi Hu, Zhiyuan Wang, Zijun Jia +1LLM Hallucination Mitigation Set Prediction
University of Electronic Science and Technology of China · Beihang University
CausalGuard: Conformal Inference under Graph Uncertainty
May 21, 2026Vikash Singh, Weicong Chen, Debargha Ganguly +12Causal Effect Estimation Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation
1Case Western Reserve University
A Deployment Audit of Release-Side Risk in Conformal Triage under Prevalence Shift
May 20, 2026Chengze Li, Xiao Liu, Hanrong Zhang +7Distribution Shift Algorithmic Auditing
University of Illinois Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA · Manteia Technologies Co., Ltd, Xiamen, China · University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL, USA +1
Provable Joint Decontamination for Benchmarking Multiple Large Language Models
May 20, 2026Zhenlong Liu, Hao Zeng, Hongxin WeiLLM Evaluation Benchmark Contamination
Department of Statistics and Data Science, Southern University of Science and Technology · Shanghai Innovation Institute
Explainable Wastewater Digital Twins: Adaptive Context-Conditioned Structured Simulators with Self-Falsifying Decision Support
May 19, 2026Gary Simethy, Daniel Ortiz Arroyo, Petar DurdevicSurrogate Modeling Safety-Critical Control
Department of Energy, Aalborg University, Niels Bohrs Vej 8, Esbjerg, 6700, Denmark
Conformal Selective Acting: Anytime-Valid Risk Control for RLVR-Trained LLMs
May 18, 2026Hamed Khosravi, Xiaoming HuoSelective Prediction Anytime-Valid Inference
Georgia Institute of Technology
Pause and Reflect: Conformal Aggregation for Chain-of-Thought Reasoning
May 13, 2026Yu Gu, Zijun Yu, Vahid Partovi Nia +1Selective Prediction Self-Consistency Decoding
Department of Mathematics and Statistics McGill University Montréal, QC, Canada · Department of Mathematics and Industrial Engineering Polytechnique de Montréal Montréal, QC, Canada
CR^2: Cost-Aware Risk-Controlled Routing for Wireless Device-Edge LLM Inference
May 12, 2026Nan Xue, Shengkang Chen, Zhiyong Chen +4On-Device Language Model Inference LLM Inference
Cooperative Medianet Innovation Center, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China · Department of Broadband Communication, Pengcheng Laboratory, Shenzhen 518000, China · Future Network of Intelligent Institute (FNii), the Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen), Shenzhen 518172, China +1
CRC-Screen: Certified DNA-Synthesis Hazard Screening Under Taxonomic Shift
Apr 30, 2026Najmul HasanDistribution Shift Toxicity Detection
University of North Carolina at Pembroke.
Beyond Surface Statistics: Robust Conformal Prediction for LLMs via Internal Representations
Apr 17, 2026Yanli Wang, Peng Kuang, Xiaoyu Han +2Confidence Estimation in Language Models Conformal Prediction
Imperial College London · Zhejiang University · University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign +1
Hybrid Decision Making via Conformal VLM-generated Guidance
Apr 16, 2026Debodeep Banerjee, Burcu Sayin, Stefano Teso +1Conformal Risk Control Human-AI Decision Making
DI, University of Pisa · DISI, University of Trento · CIMeC, university of Trento
PAC-CF: Calibrating Irreversible Frontier Pruning in LLM-Guided Search
Apr 15, 2026Tianhao Qian, Jiayu Chen, Zhenyu Sun +1LLM Inference Efficiency Inference-Time Search
The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen · The University of Hong Kong · TikTok
Confidence under Visual Token Pruning: Removed Evidence and Risk-Controlled Token Budgets for MLLMs
Apr 13, 2026Kaizhen Tan, Yang Feng, Heqing Du +3VLM Evaluation Confidence Estimation in Language Models
Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA · Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
Weighted Bayesian Conformal Prediction
Apr 7, 2026Xiayin Lou, Peng LuoConformal Prediction Weighted Conformal Prediction
Technical University of Munich · Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Conformal Risk Control under Non-Monotone Losses: Theory and Finite-Sample Guarantees
Apr 2, 2026Tareq Aldirawi, Yun Li, Wenge GuoConformal Risk Control Statistical Learning Theory
Department of Mathematical Sciences, New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, NJ, USA
With a Little Help From My Friends: Collective Manipulation in Risk-Controlling Recommender Systems
Mar 30, 2026Giovanni De Toni, Cristian Consonni, Erasmo Purificato +2Recommender Systems Adversarial Attacks
Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Italy · European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Conformal Selective Prediction with General Risk Control
Mar 25, 2026Tian Bai, Ying JinSelective Prediction Conformal Risk Control
Department of Statistics, Stanford University · Department of Statistics and Data Science, University of Pennsylvania
Uncertainty-Aware Vision-based Risk Object Identification via Conformal Risk Tube Prediction
Mar 25, 2026Kai-Yu Fu, Yi-Ting ChenAutonomous Driving Perception Autonomous Driving
National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University
Conformal Risk Control for Safety-Critical Wildfire Evacuation Mapping: A Comparative Study of Tabular, Spatial, and Graph-Based Models
Mar 20, 2026Baljinnyam DayanWildfire Forecasting Conformal Risk Control
Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Proactive Routing to Interpretable Surrogates with Distribution-Free Safety Guarantees
Mar 15, 2026Iqtedar Uddin, Mazin Khider, André BauerAdaptive Model Routing Conformal Risk Control
Illinois Institute of Technology
Safe Probabilistic Planning for Human-Robot Interaction using Conformal Risk Control
Mar 11, 2026Jake Gonzales, Kazuki Mizuta, Karen Leung +1Human-Robot Interaction Safe Robot Navigation
University of Washington, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering · University of Washington, Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics
Conformal Policy Control
Mar 2, 2026Drew Prinster, Clara Fannjiang, Ji Won Park +4Constrained RL RL Exploration
Prescient Design, Genentech, U.S.A. · Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, U.S.A. · New York University, NYC, U.S.A. +1
Conformal Risk Control for Non-Monotonic Losses
Feb 23, 2026Anastasios N. AngelopoulosConformal Risk Control
Arena
Optimal Conformal Prediction under Epistemic Uncertainty
May 25, 2025Alireza Javanmardi, Soroush H. Zargarbashi, Santo M. A. R. Thies +3Conformal Prediction Conformal Risk Control
1LMU Munich · 2MCML · 3CISPA +3

May 28, 2026J/K move · Enter open · S save

Conformal Certification of Reasoning Trace Prefixes

Matt Y. Cheung, Ashok Veeraraghavan, Hanjie Chen, Guha Balakrishnan

Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering, Rice University · Department of Computer Science, Rice University

Conformal Prediction Language Model Calibration Conformal Risk Control LLM Reasoning Reasoning Verification Reasoning Trace Analysis

Open paper AskPDF arXiv

Language model reasoning traces are rarely all-or-nothing; they frequently contain valid intermediate steps before a critical error occurs. Existing uncertainty quantification methods typically certify final answers or entire responses, failing to provide statistical guarantees for the proportion of a sequential trace that can be safely retained. To address this, we introduce CROP (Conformal Reasoning Output Prefixes), a verifier-agnostic calibration procedure for clean-prefix certification. Given any step-level risk proxy, CROP selects a calibrated threshold and returns the longest contiguous prefix whose step risk proxies remain below it, routing the uncertified suffix for downstream review or repair. Assuming exchangeability, CROP rigorously controls the marginal probability that the returned prefix contains an annotated error. Across six process-labeled reasoning datasets, we demonstrate that standard step-level metrics such as AUROC do not fully capture prefix utility, suggesting verifiers should instead be evaluated by certified prefix length. Furthermore, CROP balances over- and under-withholding and improves downstream repair accuracy by preserving valid intermediate reasoning while discarding misleading suffixes. Ultimately, this work positions prefix certification as a rigorous, practical bridge between process supervision, abstention, and repair. Code available at https://github.com/matthewyccheung/crop.