Conformal Risk Control

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Conformal risk control calibrates a model’s decisions on held-out examples so that future errors, losses, or safety violations stay within a chosen risk budget under assumptions such as exchangeability. Methods include threshold and prediction-set calibration, learn-then-test procedures, e-value tests, and extensions for non-monotone losses, groups, and multiple risk measures. Applications range from selective prediction and language-model abstention to medical triage, robotics, and control, where guarantees can make deployment trade-offs explicit. A central challenge is that marginal guarantees may not protect subgroups or survive distribution shift, while stronger guarantees and limited calibration data can reduce coverage or make systems overly cautious.

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64 papers6 papers in the last four weeks, up 20% on the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

Region-aware error triage for medical image segmentation with groupwise conformal risk control
Nov 6, 2026Nishi Kanta Paul, Md Shihabul Islam Shovo, Hoileong LeeMedical Image Segmentation Conformal Risk Control
NIMISHES Lab, Dhaka, Bangladesh · Faculty of Electronic Engineering and Technology, Universiti Malaysia Perlis, 02600 Arau, Perlis, Malaysia
When Does Risk-Controlled Throughput Forecasting Actually Control Risk? A Reproduction Study on LEO Satellite Link
Nov 4, 2026Mayan Sharma, Kriti Saini, Devansh Behl +2Conformal Risk Control Conformal Prediction
School of Computer Science and Engineering, Vellore Institute of Technology, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India · Nelco Network Products Ltd., India
CARM: Conformal Adaptive Risk Masking for Reliable Scientific Super-Resolution
Nov 4, 2026Guangtao Zhang, Haonan Wu, Junxuan Gao +5Adaptive Conformal Inference Conformal Risk Control
SandGold AI Research, China · The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou), China · Nanyang Technological University, Singapore +1
Risk Control Certifies Rates, Not Magnitudes: An Audit of Selective Fetal Biometry
Nov 4, 2026Zhengshuai Yang, Linna Jiang, Changyun Li +1Selective Prediction Ultrasound Imaging
College of Information and Intelligent Science and Technology, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha 410128, China · National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Disorders, Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha 410008, China
Weather Adaptive Autonomous Driving
Nov 3, 2026Nicholas Taylor, Alexander Picon, Sudip DhakalAutonomous Driving Object Detection
Dept. of Computing and Software Engineering, Florida Gulf Coast University, Fort Myers, FL, USA
Efficient Conformal Calibration for Paired Recommendation Decisions
Oct 31, 2026Xinyu Qiao, Yichen Lin, Zhewen Chen +2Conformal Risk Control Post-Hoc Calibration
Antai College of Economics and Management Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China · Meta
Macro Mondrian Conformal Risk Control
Oct 26, 2026Julien Combes, Jean-Francois Coeurjolly, Alexandre Dervill{é}Conformal Risk Control Conformal Prediction
SVH, Michelin · SVH · Michelin
Calibration and Risk-Budgeted Decisions with System One Models
Oct 14, 2026Soundouss Messoudi, Youness MansarLLM Decision-Making Selective Prediction
Heudiasyc - UMR CNRS 7253 Université de Technologie de Compiègne · Independent Researcher France
Adaptive Computation with Conformal Certification
Oct 13, 2026Shehtab Zaman, Aneesh Rangnekar, Nancy Lee +1Adaptive Computation Conformal Risk Control
Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA · Department of Radiation Oncology, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA
CALM-5G: Event-Level Conformal Risk Control for Predictive Service-Assurance Alarms
Oct 13, 2026Ömer Faruk İşcanlı, Yağmur Sabucu SandalOnline Calibration Conformal Risk Control
Siemens A.¸S., Istanbul, Türkiye
Valid Stopping in Adaptive Generator-Verifier Loops
Oct 5, 2026Mahmoud Hegazy, Michael I. Jordan, Aymeric DieuleveutFDR Control E-Values
CMAP, École polytechnique, IP Paris, France · Inria Paris, France · EECS, UC Berkeley, USA
G-CARB: Graph-Localized Conformal Agent Risk Budget for Compositional Harm
Oct 4, 2026Zijun Yu, Yu Gu, Vahid Partovi Nia +1AI Agent Safety Conformal Risk Control
Department of Mathematics and Statistics McGill University Montréal, QC, Canada · Department of Mathematics and Industrial Engineering Polytechnique de Montréal Montréal, QC, Canada
ReCIRC: Rectified Conformal Risk Control
Sep 29, 2026Bruno Marcondes e Resende, Helton Graziadei, Thiago Rodrigo Ramos +1Conformal Prediction Conformal Risk Control
Department of Statistics, Federal University of São Carlos
Adaptive Safety Filtering for Frozen ACC Policies via Conformal Residual Calibration
Sep 28, 2026Zhiruo Zhou, Rigaudiere Z. Li, Chen Xiwen +3Safety-Critical Control Autonomous Driving Safety Evaluation
Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen, China · Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China · Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
Faster Block-Diffusion Serving with Distribution-Free Risk Guarantees
Sep 27, 2026Jungseob Lee, Dongyub Jude Lee, Chanjun Park +2Diffusion Language Model Inference LLM Inference Acceleration
Korea University · Zoom Communications · Soongsil University +1
Certified Against Which Oracle? Execution Labels Set the Reported Risk of Conformal Abstention for Text-to-SQL
Sep 22, 2026Jiamiao Liu, Dewen Qiao, Yu Zhang +1Probability Calibration Benchmark Auditing
Department of Information, Xinqiao Hospital Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University) Chongqing 400037, China
Occupancy-based Quantile Risk Control
Sep 2, 2026Zihao Shi, Huajun Xi, Bingyi Jing +1Conformal Risk Control Statistical Learning Theory
Southern University of Science and Technology · Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence · The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen +1
Safety Screening for Voltage Control in Active Distribution Grids via Distributionally Robust Conformal Screening
Aug 31, 2026Sarra Bouchkati, Petros Ellinas, Adriana Geisler +4Safety-Critical Control Conformal Risk Control
IAEW at RWTH Aachen University, Aachen, Germany · Department of Wind and Energy Systems, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark
Conformal Risk-Averse Decision Making with Optimized Certainty Equivalent Risk Control
Aug 28, 2026Amirmohammad Farzaneh, Osvaldo SimeoneRisky Decision-Making Decision-Making under Uncertainty
Institute for Intelligent Networked Systems (INSI), Northeastern University London, London, UK
TRACE-CRC: Trajectory-Adaptive Conformal Risk Control for Multi-Step Channel State Information Prediction
Aug 27, 2026Kiarash Rezaei, Mehdi Sattari, Javad Aliakbari +3Channel State Prediction Uncertainty Quantification
Department of Electrical Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden
Multi-Expert Conformal Risk Control for Pairwise LLM Judging in Open-Ended Dialogue
Aug 27, 2026Ming Cheng, Yusheng Dai, Qiuhong Ke +2LLM-as-a-Judge Conformal Risk Control
Monash University
Bound-Aware Per-Organ Recall Risk Control for Multi-Organ CT Segmentation under Clinical Domain Shift
Aug 18, 2026Souraj Adhikary, Negar Chabi, Andre MastmeyerMulti-Organ Segmentation Medical Image Segmentation
Department of Engineering Sciences, Jade Hochschule Wilhelmshaven, Germany
TRIAGE: Risk-Controlled Pseudo-Label Admission for Annotation-Efficient Semi-Supervised Retinal OCT Classification
Aug 14, 2026Md Ashraful Hossen Akash, Shyla Afroge, Abdullah Al Mamun +2Medical Image Classification Retinal Disease Classification
Department of Computer Science & Engineering, Rajshahi University of Engineering & Technology, Rajshahi-6204, Bangladesh · Elite Research Lab LLC, New York, USA · Faculty of Information Science and Technology, Multimedia University, Melaka, Malaysia +1
Conformal risk control for model-form uncertainty in parametric non-intrusive reduced-order models
Aug 4, 2026Edgar Jaber, Rémy Vallot, Thibault Dairay +1Uncertainty Quantification PDE Surrogate Modeling
CB, ENS Paris Saclay · Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, ENS Paris-Saclay, Centre Borelli, Gif-sur-Yvette, 91190, France · CB, Michelin +3
Hierarchical Group-Conditional Conformal Risk Control for Selective Prediction in Language Models
Jul 27, 2026Murilo Salem, Luísa Böhm, Daniel Pontes +1Selective Prediction Group-Conditional Conformal Prediction
CDTec (Centro de Desenvolvimento Tecnológico) Universidade Federal de Pelotas Pelotas, RS, Brasil
Beyond Aggregate Risk: Role-Stratified Conformal Risk Control for LLM Tool Calls
Jul 27, 2026Md Ashikur Rahman, Md Arifur Rahman, Niamul Hassan Samin +4Conformal Risk Control LLM Agent Safety
When Can Conformal Risk Control Certify LLM Outputs? Bounds, Impossibility, and Adaptation for Structured Generation
Jun 27, 2026Varun KotteConformal Prediction LLM Reliability
Independent Researcher
Conformal Recovery-Deadline Certificates for Runtime Assurance of Adapting Controllers
Jun 24, 2026Alireza ShojaeiSafety-Critical Control Conformal Prediction
Myers-Lawson School of Construction, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061 USA
When Calibration Fails the Vulnerable Hospital: Federated Conformal Risk Control via Risk-Curve Shrinkage
Jun 18, 2026Nafis Fuad ShahidFederated Conformal Prediction Conformal Prediction
Dhaka, Bangladesh
ToolChain-CRC: Conformal Risk Control for Agentic AI Under Retrieval and Tool-Use Drift
Jun 16, 2026Jeffery Opoku, David BanaheneAI Agent Reliability Distribution Shift
The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Edinburg, TX, USA · Florida International University, Miami, FL, USA

Nov 6, 2026J/K move · Enter open · S save

Region-aware error triage for medical image segmentation with groupwise conformal risk control

Nishi Kanta Paul, Md Shihabul Islam Shovo, Hoileong Lee

NIMISHES Lab, Dhaka, Bangladesh · Faculty of Electronic Engineering and Technology, Universiti Malaysia Perlis, 02600 Arau, Perlis, Malaysia

Medical Image Segmentation Conformal Risk Control

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Segmentation masks are increasingly reviewed rather than redrawn, which requires knowing where a mask is likely wrong. Learned error maps rank pixels by risk, but the number of pixels to warn is chosen ad hoc, and calibrating one warning threshold over all error pixels may leave errors far from the predicted contour under-flagged. We propose RACE-Triage, a post-hoc error triage framework that leaves the segmentation mask unchanged. A risk network is trained on out-of-fold predictions from backbone-independent inputs. The predicted contour partitions each image into a boundary band and a non-boundary region, and conformal risk control is applied separately in each region to bound the expected fraction of missed errors among cases with errors there. On ISIC 2018 dermoscopy and BUSI breast ultrasound (where patient identifiers are unavailable, so independence across images is assumed), pooled control met its overall target but missed on average 31.8% and 36.4% of non-boundary errors. Regional control reduced these fractions to 19.3% and 20.9% and raised the recall of size-filtered false-negative components from 0.722 to 0.818 and from 0.611 to 0.763. The mean warned area grew by 1.6 and 4.9 percentage points, and its 95th percentile reached 23.5% and 38.5%. The effect held across three seeds and a second backbone, and area-matched heuristics did not reproduce it. On the external PH

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set, frozen thresholds exceeded both targets, whereas recalibration with 100 local images brought the mean over repeated splits below them. Regional calibration improves non-boundary error coverage at a measured increase in warned area.