Decentralized Finance

Ethereum decentralized finance (DeFi) provides a public, time-stamped record of transaction-level event streams, but the same public symbols can create strong machine-learning shortcuts. We introduce ETH-TraceBench, a benchmark for evaluating Ethereum DeFi representations under temporal, protocol, pool/infrastructure, and symbolic shift. The raw event universe covers January 2021-December 2025 and contains 1.35 billion transactions with logs and 5.01 billion raw log rows. Model evaluation uses a fixed 911,267-instance supervised sample, training on 2021-2024, selecting models on 2025H1, and testing on 2025H2. Simple models perform strongly on the aggregate temporal test: TraceStats-GB reaches 0.953 macro-F1 and TopicEmitterHashMLP 0.959 on the canonical DEX test set. Performance drops sharply under protocol novelty, with macro-F1 of 0.794, 0.743, and 0.766 for TraceStats-GB, TopicEmitterTrace-SGD, and TopicEmitterHashMLP, while strict unseen-pool scores remain 0.927, 0.897, and 0.935. Uniswap v4 and Ekubo v1, both absent from supervised training, are materially harder than the full test. Jointly masking emitter and topic identity reduces DEX macro-F1 to 0.916 and liquidation macro-F1 to 0.774 for TopicEmitterTrace-SGD. A standard Transformer over log-index-ordered events provides no consistent advantage over a deterministic shuffle of the same events, indicating that high aggregate scores can arise without sophisticated chronological modeling. A natural-prevalence audit estimates 2025H2 DEX prevalence among logged Ethereum transactions at about 22.5%, and a deterministic 400-transaction audit finds complete agreement with task label sources and independently re-queried raw-log counts. ETH-TraceBench therefore treats difficult transfer and controlled-input conditions, rather than a single aggregate score, as the main evaluation target.

We introduce Crypto Accounting Bench (CAB), a benchmark for assessing whether frontier and open-weight language models can reconstruct the complete journal entry that an organization actually posted for a crypto-asset transaction. CAB contains 118 evaluation tasks drawn from 7 pseudonymized organizations. Each task combines transaction mechanics, asset quantities and base-currency values, wallet and legal-entity context, counterparty evidence, related transaction legs, recurrence, tax-lot evidence, and the organization's complete chart of accounts. The target is a balanced structured entry with every required account, side, amount, currency, and full-precision asset quantity. We evaluate 12 models spanning proprietary frontier systems and open-weight releases over 3 independent attempts per task, producing 4,248 trajectories. We report 3 metrics: Mean Score, Best@3, and Pass@3. Pass@3 is the fraction of tasks with at least 1 of 3 attempts that satisfies every rubric criterion and required gate. The leading model reaches 77.43% Mean Score, while the best Pass@3 is 56.78%. Deterministic diagnostics, read from each task's best of 3 attempts and macro-averaged across the 12 models, show higher base-amount agreement (97.8%) than deciding-account accuracy (56.3%). Together with the failure analysis, these results identify account selection and complete-entry composition as the main remaining challenges on CAB.

Cryptocurrency forecasting presents a distinctive combination of extreme cross-asset scale heterogeneity, non-stationary dynamics, and structural dependencies among Open, High, Low, and Close (OHLC) variables. We present CryptoL, a unified framework designed to address these challenges within multivariate time-series forecasting. CryptoL evaluates forecasting error in context-normalized coordinates within the RevIN pipeline, preventing inverse normalization from introducing an additional squared-scale weighting into the MSE objective. We formally characterize this effect through the empirical risk and parameter-gradient geometry, establishing the conditions under which large-scale assets can disproportionately influence shared-model optimization. Beyond loss-space normalization, CryptoL examines channel-independent and channel-dependent normalization for OHLC data, showing that a shared channel-dependent affine transformation preserves candle-order relations that independent channel transformations need not preserve. The framework further incorporates scale-adaptive numerical stabilization to reduce distortions caused by a fixed normalization constant across assets spanning many orders of magnitude, together with a soft feasibility loss that penalizes violations of the defining OHLC inequalities. Experiments across heterogeneous cryptocurrency assets evaluate these components through controlled ablations and demonstrate improvements in forecasting accuracy, training stability, and the frequency of financially valid OHLC predictions relative to the considered baselines. CryptoL therefore provides an integrated approach to scale-balanced optimization, structure-preserving normalization, numerical stabilization, and constraint-aware cryptocurrency forecasting.

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) has emerged as a rapidly growing blockchain-based financial service, where market transaction dynamics and underlying smart contract logic are intricately intertwined. This autonomous interplay, while eliminating centralized intermediaries, significantly expands the vulnerability surface of DeFi protocols to Price Manipulation Attacks (PMAs), which have already inflicted catastrophic financial losses. Despite their gravity, existing detection paradigms suffer from fundamental limitations. Transaction-centric methods lack awareness of contract execution semantics, making them prone to false positives under legitimate market volatility, while static contract analyses ignore real transaction behaviors and frequently report vulnerabilities that are infeasible to exploit in practice. We present DeFiFusion, a dual-modal PMA detection framework that closes this gap by jointly modeling transaction events and smart contract semantics within a unified pipeline. Our core insight is that PMA maliciousness emerges only from the interaction between transaction behaviors and the contract logic they exploit; neither signal suffices in isolation. Accordingly, we derive price-manipulation-aware event encoding for extracting fine-grained temporal and economic features tailored to manipulation patterns. We further introduce LLM-based contract semantic extraction to supply the execution-logic context that prior behavioral methods lack. To fuse these modalities, we propose a Dual-Modal Projection-Fusion Transformer with T5-style relative positional encoding, capturing the cyclic multi-stage execution structures that distinguish PMAs from benign market activity. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DeFiFusion consistently achieves state-of-the-art detection performance, effectively recalling 222 of the 225 PMA cases while maintaining a precision of 96.10%.

A structurally valid DeFi workflow can still authorize a costly trade. We introduce DeFiFlowBench, a benchmark of 207 team-authored prompts for natural-language DeFi workflow synthesis. It measures graph coverage, configuration completeness, and declared safety predicates, then tests supported trade configurations on a local EVM. Direct, constrained, and few-shot prompting produce 14-19 unsafe held-out executions per configuration under a fixed 5% price-impact cap. A slippage bound derived from a quote does not prevent the price impact of the order itself. We propose Koan-Safe, which combines a prompt-only intent parser, a replaceable generator, and structural repair with default safety parameters. On 75 held-out workflow prompts, its hybrid variant scores 0.67 on the static safety proxy, compared with 0.33 for the best baseline. Koan-Safe records no unsafe executions on the saved benchmark outputs. A matched-candidate ablation produces 14-17 unsafe executions when enforcement is disabled. Additional tests expose the limits of default injection: permissive existing thresholds can still authorize unsafe trades. A separately evaluated policy cap addresses this failure on a 36-case diagnostic grid. These results support explicit trade protections and execution-based evaluation, while distinguishing declared safety from a general guarantee.

Wallet reputation scores decide who receives an airdrop, who can borrow, and who enters an allowlist across decentralised finance. They almost always begin as hand-written formulas: compositions of clamped logarithmic, linear and square-root transforms over behavioural features, with every threshold and point award set by hand. Such a formula is readable and deterministic, but it is piecewise and non-differentiable, it cannot improve as data accumulates, and it cannot distinguish a feature that is genuinely zero from one its pipeline failed to capture. We present zScore-N, the neural network that replaced ours in production. The formula served as its teacher: calibrated against 5,208,952 wallets sampled across 2019-2024 and verified to reproduce production output to within 2.3e-13, it supplies unlimited labelled training data at zero label noise. The trained network reproduces it to 0.58 points RMSE on the 1000-point scale (R^2 = 0.99997), against 2.25 for gradient-boosted trees and 28.04 for linear regression on identical features and splits. Trained with missing-value masks against uncorrupted targets, it halves the error that incomplete data introduces: at 10% feature-level missingness the formula drifts 51.4 points from its own complete-data output with a systematic -12.5 point bias, while the network drifts 17.9. The network carries the score at production scale, across a population of millions of wallets spanning six orders of magnitude in size and activity.

Machine learning has shown its largest gains in the band below 10 ms inside a 3GPP new radio (NR) 5G distributed unit (DU): link adaptation, per-slot scheduling, channel estimation, and the receiver itself. No open platform has let independently built software run there. Prior dApp frameworks reached the band only as external observers of an export stream. This paper is a guided introduction to the OCUDU dApp platform, an open runtime and E3 interface under which signed AI-RAN applications execute inside a production DU under three timing contracts: resident on the GPU receive chain (Class A), inside the scheduler's 100 us admitted deadline (Class B), or as never-blocking observers whose results the scheduler consumes (Class C). The conventional path is never displaced, and every authority is typed, validated, and operator-bounded. The paper explains how the runtime, the embedded E3 agent, and the three public repositories fit together; shows a dApp's source, its signed package, and its lifecycle state machine; defines the contracts a module is written against; and shows how one management surface serves a Python script, an operator's console, and an LLM agent. On a GB10 gNB with attached handsets, dApps of all three classes, including an out-of-tree neural equalizer, ran together on a live cell without a single fallback, and equalizer variants were compared over the air by lifecycle operations alone. Every measured checkpoint is reported with its conditions and its gaps. Platform, SDK, and a zero-hardware quickstart are public under BSD-3-Clause-Clear as a preview release of the OCUDU AI-RAN Working Group 2, inviting feedback, new use cases, and independent vetting ahead of upstreaming into the OCUDU mainline.

Price extraction from websites is a key task for market monitoring, price comparison, and business analytics in e-commerce. Existing approaches can be broadly divided into four groups, and understanding their trade-offs in accuracy and scalability is essential for selecting suitable extraction strategies. Classical methods rely on manually written wrappers and rule induction from labeled pages, offering high accuracy but adapting poorly to structural changes and requiring considerable maintenance effort. Browser-based methods, using tools such as Selenium and Puppeteer, handle dynamic JavaScript content but consume large computational resources and scale poorly. Browserless approaches retrieve HTML directly via HTTP requests, offering significant gains in speed and cost, but rely on rules calibrated for specific sites. Methods based on machine learning and large language models offer adaptability but require training data and substantial computation. Our main contribution is an adaptive browserless price extraction system that improves robustness to structural differences between websites. We implemented a baseline architecture combining HTML page fragmentation with syntactic, semantic, and frequency rules, and extended it in two ways: a Bayesian approach that dynamically updates rule weights, and a genetic algorithm that optimizes the system's global parameters. This hybrid scheme increased precision from 77.2% to 87.3% and reduced average per-page processing time by approximately 14% relative to the baseline, confirming it as a competitive alternative to manually tuned browserless solutions and to more resource-intensive browser- or LLM-based methods, offering high extraction accuracy at low computational cost.

Cryptocurrency markets generate high-frequency, multi-source data that is expensive to work with unless a team already has commercial-grade streaming and warehousing infrastructure in place. This paper describes a fully open-source pipeline that reproduces the behavior of a cloud-native, event-driven system -- file arrival triggering a message, a message triggering compute -- entirely on commodity hardware, using Apache Kafka and a filesystem-watching poller in place of managed cloud triggers. The pipeline partitions historical Gemini exchange data into hourly and minutely files, ingests them asynchronously through two independently grouped Kafka consumers (one for audit logging, one for Spark-triggered ETL), and lands cleaned output in a PostgreSQL warehouse with historical and aggregated schemas plus asset-specific data marts. We use the resulting Bitcoin data mart to compare a seasonal ARIMA model against a single-layer LSTM network for price forecasting, and separately apply Random Forest and Gradient Boosting classifiers, with additional engineered features, to the public Ethereum fraud detection benchmark introduced by Farrugia et al. We report the architecture, the modeling methodology, and the resulting metrics, and we are explicit about the limitations of comparing forecasts issued at different horizons and of evaluating fraud detection on a static, already-labeled dataset.

Talking-video character replacement requires coordinated transfer of appearance and voice while preserving the source motion, scene, linguistic content, and audio-video timing. Existing methods use separately optimized models for the two modalities, making audio-visual consistency difficult to enforce. We present UniSwap, the first framework for streaming joint audio-visual identity replacement in talking videos. Given a source video, a reference image, and a reference voice clip, UniSwap transfers the reference appearance and vocal timbre within a single audio-visual diffusion transformer while preserving the source content and dynamics. To address the scarcity of aligned cross-identity training pairs, we introduce a swap-and-reconstruct pipeline that removes visual and vocal identity from real clips and uses the original clips as reconstruction targets. Starting from a bidirectional backbone, we progressively adapt the model through In-context Pretraining for joint replacement, Conditional Streaming Adaptation for block-causal KV-cached generation, and Efficient Self-forcing DMD for mitigating exposure bias and reducing sampling from 30 to 3 denoising steps per block. Efficient Multi-LoRA Switching enables the three DMD roles to share a single frozen backbone. Feature-RoPE Decomposition keeps cached positions within the training range, supporting stable long-form inference. Experiments demonstrate strong audio-visual synchronization, competitive identity preservation, efficient streaming, and stable long-form generation.

Incentive programs are central to user acquisition in decentralized finance, but many reward systems rely on raw volume, transaction count, and wallet count, making them vulnerable to bots and sybil operations. We present ZAPs, a reward attribution framework that combines economic contribution scoring with adversarial robustness. A composite activity score uses protocol-specific percentile normalization to limit whale dominance while preserving differentiation among users. A two-layer weighting mechanism combines protocol share within sector and sector share within the ecosystem, which reduces the profitability of farming small protocols. We show that the maximum reward obtainable from any protocol is bounded by that protocol's global volume share. ZAPs also introduces a four-layer defense stack consisting of transaction-level integrity checks, a parallel anomaly ensemble, post-distribution behavioral memory, and graph-based sybil clustering. The anomaly ensemble combines a one-class reconstruction model with an isolation forest and applies graduated rather than binary penalties. On 1,073 labeled malicious wallets covering 124,638 transactions, the ensemble achieves 0.923 +/- 0.013 ROC-AUC, compared with 0.891 +/- 0.016 for the reconstruction model alone, when the isolation forest is trained on benign wallets. Training it on the pooled population reverses its polarity and removes the ensemble gain. Controlled simulations reduce adversarial reward capture by 30-90 percent while legitimate-user scenarios change by 1-8 percent. Live campaigns recorded a 56 percent reduction in sybil allocation, a 49 percent increase in quality-wallet participation, and a 50 percent reduction in sell pressure.

Bitcoin price prediction on sub-daily timescales is a hard open problem in computational finance. Bitcoin exhibits fat-tailed returns, non-stationary dynamics, and a price discovery process influenced by social discourse on Reddit and Twitter. Conventional approaches fuse OHLCV technical features with sentiment via static concatenation, applying identical fusion weights regardless of market state. This is inconsistent with the behavioural finance literature, which shows that retail sentiment is most predictive during volatile periods and noisy during calm ones. This paper proposes Regime-Aware Multi-Modal Learning (RAML), which conditions fusion of sentiment and price features on a dynamically detected binary market regime. Rolling 24-hour volatility partitions observations into stable and volatile regimes; a learnable sigmoid gate adjusts the weight of the sentiment embedding relative to the price embedding, trusting sentiment more during volatility and price dynamics more during stable phases. The system is evaluated on 3,491 hourly observations (July 2024-September 2025), combining Bitcoin OHLCV data with Reddit /r/Bitcoin FinBERT sentiment. Four models are compared - price-only BiLSTM, sentiment-only classifier, static-concatenation BiLSTM, and RAML - across 3-hour and 6-hour horizons, with an ablation study isolating the sentiment branch, regime detection, and adaptive fusion. RAML achieves macro-F1 of 0.5474 (3h) and 0.5513 (6h), with the highest AUC at 3 hours (0.5084), indicating better calibration. Ablation confirms every component is necessary, and replacing adaptive weighting with concatenation causes recall collapse at 6 hours (F1: 0.14). These results establish regime-conditioned adaptive fusion as a necessary design principle for multi-modal financial forecasting.

We audit whether candle-based machine-learning models can turn predictions of cryptocurrency extrema or short-horizon outcomes into positive Binance Spot paper policies after assumed costs. Numerical results come from scripted fixed-seed model runs and deterministic simulators; human-supervised AI agents supported the July 20 evidence-integrity revision through literature retrieval, separately tasked critique, artifact reconciliation, documentation, and source packaging, not trading decisions. The strongest later-period evidence, conditional on extensive predecessor search, is negative: an unchanged ten-pair mandatory-daily selector lost 6.72% over 19 July cycles at an assumed 31-bps completed-cycle cost, with 3 wins and 16 losses. In short model-specific July evaluations, the validation-selected local-minimum policy returned -1.79%, while the local-maximum sell-to-cash/re-entry policy underperformed continuous holding by 2.80%; their gross mean advantages of 11.11 and 12.21 bps were below even the 21-bps stress. A Gurgul-inspired, OHLCV-only daily adaptation attained minimum/maximum ROC AUC of 0.874/0.896 but average precision of only 0.134/0.116 and lost 44.30% over seven cycles, versus -41.20% for buy-and-hold. A forensic audit also downgraded an earlier One4All "30-day holdout": its dates had influenced prior architecture work, its four-hour outcome horizon was not purged at split boundaries, it used same-close entry, and its raw result directories were absent. Across the tested, mostly exploratory protocols, event-ranking performance did not establish positive executable policy value. Every operational decision remains NO_TRADE.

Trader-facing dynamic fees are increasingly proposed for automated market makers (AMMs), but historical data do not identify how order flow would respond: trader-facing fees do not vary, trader types are latent, and a replayed tape is not a sequential decision environment. We therefore construct a minimal closed-loop simulator in which the missing signal exists by construction: two constant-product pools repriced by an equilibrium-inspired dynamic-fee rule, fee-sensitive noise flow, and closed-form CEX--AMM arbitrage. Equilibrium is used as a closure principle, not as an object the trader learns. Against a tuned benchmark ladder of schedule, planning, lookahead, and tabular policies, a small DQN is the only evaluated valid policy whose paired improvement over tuned one-step routing excludes zero. On a reserved final block of 1{,}000 seeds with completion forced to 1.0 for every policy, it reduces implementation shortfall under every tested intra-step ordering, by $13.3\bps$ of order notional under the pre-specified agent-last ordering, and the edge is concentrated in, and learned from, dynamic-fee environments: under constant fees the paired difference is indistinguishable from zero. The result is model-conditioned counterfactual evidence about execution control in AMMs, not evidence about historical traders, equilibrium play, or deployable profit.

Decentralized finance exposes supervisors to fast-moving, networked credit risks. General-purpose LLM agents fit this setting poorly: they over-read weak evidence and recommend high-stakes interventions, while existing evaluations offer no regulator-aligned way to measure the resulting false alarms. We introduce DeXposure-Claw, a forecast-grounded agentic supervision system that routes LLM decisions through structured evidence: (1) DeXposure-FM, a graph time-series foundation model, forecasts future exposure networks; (2) deterministic monitors and stress scenarios then turn those forecasts into typed alerts, attribution signals, and scenario evidence; and (3) data-health and confidence gates constrain escalation before DeXposure-Claw emits auditable supervisory tickets with rationales. We further develop DeXposure-Bench, a six-axis evaluation harness, whose decision axis scores tickets against a regulator-aligned absolute-loss ground truth and an explicit false-intervention rate. Experiments on five years of weekly real data fully support our system. Code is at https://github.com/EVIEHub/DeXposure-Claw.

Recent advances in error-corrected qubits have accelerated the timeline for practical quantum computing. It poses a threat to cryptographic primitives used to secure financial systems, government infrastructure, communication networks, and DeFi (Decentralized Finance) ecosystems. This paper introduces a post-quantum secure federated DeFi framework that enables inter-bank collaboration to improve the inclusivity of individuals underserved by local lenders due to limited financial histories. Multiple banks contribute encrypted information batches to a virtual server, where lattice-based Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE) enables end-to-end homomorphic computation. The server fuses local data-driven probabilistic assessments, expert beliefs, and verifiable evidence generated by the NASA-IBM Prithvi Geospatial Foundation Model (GFM), in encrypted format. Decentralized technologies are employed to ensure tamper-proof evidence and auditable accountability for all encrypted data exchanges between institutions and the server. The framework is tested on agricultural lending decisions for rural borrowers in Virginia.

Algorithmic trading systems on decentralised exchanges (DEXs) reject most candidate tokens they evaluate. The counterfactual outcome of rejected candidates (what would have happened had the system entered) is rarely measured. This paper introduces Post-Rejection Follow-up Sampling (PRFS). A separate tracking subsystem samples each rejected token's price and liquidity at a configurable cadence, over a horizon of up to twenty-four hours. PRFS produces the data needed to evaluate filter precision against actual market outcomes of rejected candidates, not against synthetic backtest reconstructions. The methodology, data architecture, and deposit format are described in Section III. The companion dataset contains 67,000 forward-outcome observation rows across 2,997 rejection events spanning 457 unique mints, collected over a continuous eight-day window (2026-04-10 to 2026-04-19, UTC). Approximately 55 percent of rejection events receive at least one forward observation; coverage at the mint level is complete. The principal binding constraint on downstream classification is per-event horizon density, not event-level coverage. PRFS is dataset-independent. It generalises to any algorithmic decision system in which rejections substantially outnumber executions.

Bimanual dexterous tool use remains challenging for robots due to high-dimensional hand configurations and complex hand-tool-object dynamics and contact. Most existing control policies depend on future configuration references provided from demonstrations, while future action-conditioned world models require slow online planning over high-dimensional action sequences. A significant challenge is generating a dynamically consistent future reference trajectory without relying on privileged states from demonstrations or slow counterfactual planning. We propose DexFuture, a hierarchical system that couples a high-level Future-State Visuomotor Target Predictor with a low-level Target-Conditioned Structured Dexterous Policy. Conditioned on egocentric RGB, proprioceptive and geometric history, the high-level predictor constructs structured hand-tool-object visuomotor embeddings and uses a horizon-conditioned transformer to generate a multi-step future target trajectory. Then, the low-level policy tracks them with a target-conditioned per-link transformer. This hierarchy decouples coarse future reference generation from fine-grained action control, and slow long-horizon semantic prediction from high-frequency execution. On OakInk2 bimanual tool-use tasks, DexFuture achieves 90% of the privileged-oracle performance, compared to 7% for a no-reference policy. DexFuture operates at 60 Hz, approximately 250 times faster than DexWM-style Cross-Entropy Method (CEM) planning with a future action-conditioned world model.

This study aims to determine whether the application of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) as a specialized execution overlay can enhance pair trading in highly volatile cryptocurrency markets. Although classical implementations of the strategy have proven successful in traditional equities, they frequently exhibit rigidity and suffer from severe divergence risks when applied to high-variance environments. To address this need, this research introduces novel concepts. To construct a robust system, we developed a hierarchical "Filter-then-Rank" pair selection methodology and a proprietary "Fixed Risk, Adaptive Mean" execution model. The system employs a Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) agent with a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) layer to govern execution decisions within strict deterministic risk management boundaries. Evaluated on 1-hour interval data from the Binance USD-M Futures market, the optimized RL policy achieved an out-of-sample performance that substantially outperformed the heuristic baseline. A stationary circular block bootstrap robustness check confirms that the agent's risk-adjusted outperformance is statistically significant at the 10 percent level. Although falling marginally short of the stricter 5 percent threshold, this result highlights the extreme idiosyncratic variance characteristic of digital assets. Ultimately, this thesis contributes to the quantitative finance literature by introducing a hybrid architecture that combines statistical arbitrage with DRL execution policies. Furthermore, it delivers a novel framework for safe reinforcement learning via deterministic shielding, proving that anchoring a neural policy to statistically robust boundaries successfully mitigates severe divergence risks.

Ultra Reliable and Low Latency Communications (URLLC) was one of the main motivations behind 5G, with 3GPP advertising 1-10 ms latency targets for applications such as industrial automation, Vehicle-To-Everything (V2X), tactical edge networking, and unmanned-system control. Years on, real 5G Time Division Duplexing (TDD) networks still show median Uplink (UL) round-trip times in the 50-70 ms range, largely because of the Scheduling Request (SR) procedure that a User Equipment (UE) must complete before transmitting UL data. Existing remedies, primarily Configured Grant (CG) scheduling, only eliminate this overhead for strictly periodic traffic and require cross-layer synchronization, which has limited their adoption. We propose AUGUSTE (Anticipatory Uplink Grants for URLLC via Self-Adapting Temporal Estimation), a learning-based Medium Access Control (MAC) scheduling framework that embeds online Machine Learning (ML) models in the UL scheduler to predict packet arrivals and proactively allocate resources before an SR is issued. An adaptive state machine alternates between a learning phase that collects unbiased arrival statistics and a confident phase that exploits the learned predictions to schedule only when traffic is expected. We evaluate AUGUSTE on a real 5G testbed running OpenAirInterface across three URLLC traffic patterns (request-response, ML edge inference, and periodic autonomous reporting), and show that it operates at the best achievable point on the latency-overhead trade-off: it matches always-on scheduling's median Round Trip Time (RTT) (around 10 ms, halving the 20 ms SR-based baseline) at roughly one-tenth its resource cost (7-10 percent overhead).

DeFi investment agents, systems that use AI for autonomous on-chain trading, have attained over USD 3 billion in combined token valuations since late 2024. We survey over 1,900 AI-tagged crypto projects, filter to investment-focused agents, and curate 10 representative projects spanning strategy and observability dimensions. We then conduct a deep-dive architectural analysis of two prominent agent frameworks, ElizaOS and Virtuals Protocol, and a quantitative on-chain performance analysis of 11 Solana-based agent treasuries with publicly attributable trading activity, covering 925,323 token holders. We find that current deployments remain early and heterogeneous: (1) in our sample, many projects do not yet provide clear evidence of autonomous trade execution, and developer interviews suggest that many visible deployments remain basic API integrations; (2) agent treasuries retain over USD 30M in paper gains while token holders collectively lost USD 191.7M, with the top 1% of wallets capturing 81.4% of all gains (USD 1.81B); (3) token valuations are weakly connected to treasury fundamentals, with market-cap-to-AUM ratios exceeding 10,000x versus below 1x for established DeFi protocols; and (4) aggregate user gains peaked at USD 2.4B before declining to net losses, with median returns negative on every platform and tokens declining 93% on average from all-time highs. We interpret these outcomes as characteristic of a permissionless, first-generation market in which open infrastructure enables rapid experimentation but also allows naive or speculative agents to launch before robust standards for autonomy, performance, and stakeholder alignment emerge. We therefore propose a maturity framework along three dimensions: autonomous execution, risk-adjusted profitability, and stakeholder alignment, to characterize the gap between current deployments and future investment-grade agent systems.

We study decentralized online convex optimization when agents communicate over a graph and messages may be compressed. Classical decentralized online methods typically require learning-rate choices that depend on the horizon, comparator scale, or other problem parameters, while compressed communication introduces additional disagreement that must be controlled. We propose DECO-EF (DEcentralized COin-betting with Error Feedback), a decentralized parameter-free online learning algorithm that combines coin-betting predictions with compressed difference-based gossip. Each agent maintains a clean accumulated state and a compressed tracker, and communicates only compressed state differences during gossip steps. The method is parameter-free in the online-learning sense: it does not tune to the horizon, the comparator norm, or the learning rate. We prove expected comparator-adaptive network-regret bounds for DECO-EF under compressed communication. To the best of our knowledge, this gives the first expected sublinear network-regret guarantees for parameter-free decentralized online learning under compressed communication.

This paper investigates whether machine learning forecasts of hourly BTC-USDT returns can be converted into economically meaningful trading performance after transaction costs. Using approximately 70,000 hourly observations from 2018-2026, XGBoost, LSTM, and iTransformer are evaluated in a 27-fold walk-forward protocol. All three models produce positive gross trading performance in selected configurations, but naive sign-based strategies fail once transaction costs of ten basis points are imposed. A cost-aware execution filter, which prevents trades only when the forecast magnitude exceeds a transaction-cost-based threshold, sharply reduces turnover and restores profitability in selected configurations. The strongest long-only XGBoost strategy produces annualised returns above 65% with a Sharpe ratio above one. Additional tests show that technical indicators improve performance in selected cases, EGARCH-derived features do not provide uniformly robust gains, and XGBoost is descriptively stronger than the neural alternatives, although bootstrap evidence does not support formal statistical dominance. Loss-function and model-selection effects are secondary and statistically fragile. The results show that the main obstacle in hourly cryptocurrency trading is not only weak predictability, but also the way forecasts are converted into trades.

Cryptocurrency pump-and-dump schemes coordinated via Telegram threaten market integrity. However, existing research addressing this specific threat has not yet produced solutions that combine reliable results with fast response. This is in part due to the absence of publicly available, message-level labeled data, as well as design choices. In this paper, we address both issues. In particular, we introduce a corpus of over 280,000 Telegram posts from 39 pump-organizing groups, all manually reviewed to identify 2,246 pump announcements and their targeted cryptocurrency and exchange. Leveraging this dataset, we define two tasks: real-time pump-announcement detection and target cryptocurrency/exchange extraction. For detection, we compare two machine-learning models: a lightweight tree-based LightGBM classifier (F1=0.79, latency=9.4 s/sample) and a transformer-based BGE-M3 (F1=0.83, latency=50 ms/sample). With our proposed approach, we show that message analysis can achieve near-instant pump detection at the level of individual Telegram message windows. Unlike prior work that relies purely on market data and typically detects pumps tens of seconds after abnormal trading activity is observed, our method operates directly on the coordination messages themselves and can be evaluated in microseconds per window on commodity hardware. To our knowledge, we also establish the first benchmark for manipulated coin and exchange extraction. We demonstrate that traditional rule-based extraction methods, widely relied upon in prior literature, are ineffective due to ticker ambiguity. In contrast, LLMs achieve the highest accuracy with a score of 0.91.

We introduce LATTICE, a benchmark for evaluating the decision support utility of crypto agents in realistic user-facing scenarios. Prior crypto agent benchmarks mainly focus on reasoning-based or outcome-based evaluation, but do not assess agents' ability to assist user decision-making. LATTICE addresses this gap by: (1) defining six evaluation dimensions that capture key decision support properties; (2) proposing 16 task types that span the end-to-end crypto copilot workflow; and (3) using LLM judges to automatically score agent outputs based on these dimensions and tasks. Crucially, the dimensions and tasks are designed to be evaluable at scale using LLM judges, without relying on ground truth from expert annotators or external data sources. In lieu of these dependencies, LATTICE's LLM judge rubrics can be continually audited and updated given new dimensions, tasks, criteria, and human feedback, thus promoting reliable and extensible evaluation. While other benchmarks often compare foundation models sharing a generic agent framework, we use LATTICE to assess production-level agents used in actual crypto copilot products, reflecting the importance of orchestration and UI/UX design in determining agent quality. In this paper, we evaluate six real-world crypto copilots on 1,200 diverse queries and report breakdowns across dimensions, tasks, and query categories. Our experiments show that most of the tested copilots achieve comparable aggregate scores, but differ more significantly on dimension-level and task-level performance. This pattern suggests meaningful trade-offs in decision support quality: users with different priorities may be better served by different copilots than the aggregate rankings alone would indicate. To support reproducible research, we open-source all LATTICE code and data used in this paper.

Technological advancements in cryptocurrency markets have increased accessibility for investors, but concurrently exposed them to the risks of market manipulations. Existing fraud detection mechanisms typically rely on machine learning methods that treat each financial asset (i.e., token) and its related transactions independently. However, market manipulation strategies are rarely isolated events, but are rather characterized by coordination, repetition, and frequent transfers among related assets. This suggests that relational structure constitutes an integral component of the signal and can be effectively represented through graphical means. In this paper, we propose three graph construction methods that rely on aggregated hourly market data. The proposed graphs are processed by a unified spatio-temporal Graph Neural Network (GNN) architecture that combines attention-based spatial aggregation with temporal Transformer encoding. We evaluate our methodology on a real-world dataset comprised of pump-and-dump schemes in cryptocurrency markets, spanning a period of over three years. Our comparative results showcase that our graph-based models achieve significant improvements over standard machine learning baselines in detecting anomalous events. Our work highlights that learned market connectivity provides substantial gains for detecting coordinated market manipulation schemes.

Automated Market Makers (AMMs), as a core infrastructure of decentralized finance (DeFi), uniquely drive on-chain asset pricing through a deterministic reserve ratio mechanism. Unlike traditional markets, AMM price dynamics is triggered largely by on-chain events (e.g., swap) that change the reserve ratio, rather than by continuous responses to off-chain information. This makes event-level analysis crucial for understanding price formation mechanisms in AMMs. However, existing research generally neglects the micro-structural dynamics at the AMMs level, lacking both a comprehensive dataset covering multiple protocols with fine-grained event classification and an effective framework for event-aware modeling. To fill this gap, we construct a dataset containing 8.9 million on-chain event records from four representative AMMs protocols: Pendle, Uniswap v3, Aave and Morpho, with precise annotations of transaction type and block height timestamps. Furthermore, we propose an Uncertainty Weighted Mean Squared Error (UWM) loss function, which incorporates the block interval regression term into the traditional Time-Point Process (TPP) objective function by weighting the uncertainty with homoscedasticity. Extensive experiments on eight advanced TPP architectures demonstrate that this loss function reduces the time prediction error by an average of 56.41% while maintaining the accuracy of event type prediction, establishing a robust benchmark for event-aware prediction in the AMMs ecosystem. This work provides the necessary data foundation and methodological framework for modeling the discreteness and event-driven characteristics of on-chain price discovery. All datasets and source code are publicly available. https://github.com/yosen-king/Deep-AMM-Events

Data plays a fundamental role in consolidating markets, services, and products in the digital financial ecosystem. However, the use of real data, especially in the financial context, can lead to privacy risks and access restrictions, affecting institutions, research, and modeling processes. Although not all financial datasets present such limitations, this work proposes the use of deep learning techniques for generating synthetic data applied to cryptocurrency price time series. The approach is based on Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (CGANs), combining an LSTM-type recurrent generator and an MLP discriminator to produce statistically consistent synthetic data. The experiments consider different crypto-assets and demonstrate that the model is capable of reproducing relevant temporal patterns, preserving market trends and dynamics. The generation of synthetic series through GANs is an efficient alternative for simulating financial data, showing potential for applications such as market behavior analysis and anomaly detection, with lower computational cost compared to more complex generative approaches.

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) lending protocols like Aave v3 rely on over-collateralization to secure loans, yet users frequently face liquidation due to volatile market conditions. Existing risk management tools utilize static health-factor thresholds, which are reactive and fail to distinguish between administrative "dust" cleanup and genuine insolvency. In this work, we propose an autonomous agent that leverages time-to-event (survival) analysis and moves beyond prediction to execution. Unlike passive risk signals, this agent perceives risk, simulates counterfactual futures, and executes protocol-faithful interventions to proactively prevent liquidations. We introduce a return period metric derived from a numerically stable XGBoost Cox proportional hazards model to normalize risk across transaction types, coupled with a volatility-adjusted trend score to filter transient market noise. To select optimal interventions, we implement a counterfactual optimization loop that simulates potential user actions to find the minimum capital required to mitigate risk. We validate our approach using a high-fidelity, protocol-faithful Aave v3 simulator on a cohort of 4,882 high-risk user profiles. The results demonstrate the agent's ability to prevent liquidations in imminent-risk scenarios where static rules fail, effectively "saving the unsavable" while maintaining a zero worsening rate, providing a critical safety guarantee often missing in autonomous financial agents. Furthermore, the system successfully differentiates between actionable financial risks and negligible dust events, optimizing capital efficiency where static rules fail.

Smart contracts govern billions of dollars in decentralized finance (DeFi), yet automated vulnerability detection remains challenging because many vulnerabilities are tightly coupled with project-specific business logic. We observe that recurring vulnerabilities across diverse DeFi business models often share the same underlying economic mechanisms, which we term DeFi semantics, and that capturing these shared abstractions can enable more systematic auditing. Building on this insight, we propose Knowdit, a knowledge-driven, agentic workflow for smart contract vulnerability detection. Knowdit first constructs an auditing knowledge graph from historical human audit reports, linking fine-grained DeFi semantics with recurring vulnerability patterns. Given a new project, a multi-agent pipeline leverages this knowledge through an iterative loop of specification generation, Proof-of-Concept (PoC) synthesis, PoC execution, and finding reflection, driven by a shared repository index. We evaluate Knowdit on 11 recent Code4rena projects with 84 ground-truth vulnerabilities. Knowdit detects all 21 high-severity and 90% of medium-severity vulnerabilities without false positives, fully covering eight projects, significantly outperforming all baselines. Applied to seven real-world projects, Knowdit further discovers 9 high- and 36 medium-severity previously unknown vulnerabilities, securing millions in liquidity and proving its outstanding performance.

Credit exposure in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) is often implicit and token-mediated, creating a dense web of inter-protocol dependencies. Thus, a shock to one token may result in significant and uncontrolled contagion effects. As the DeFi ecosystem becomes increasingly linked with traditional financial infrastructure through instruments, such as stablecoins, the risk posed by this dynamic demands more powerful quantification tools. We introduce DeXposure-FM, the first time-series, graph foundation model for measuring and forecasting inter-protocol credit exposure on DeFi networks, to the best of our knowledge. Employing a graph-tabular encoder, with pre-trained weight initialization, and multiple task-specific heads, DeXposure-FM is trained on the DeXposure dataset that has 43.7 million data entries, across 4,300+ protocols on 602 blockchains, covering 24,300+ unique tokens. The training is operationalized for credit-exposure forecasting, predicting the joint dynamics of (1) protocol-level flows, and (2) the topology and weights of credit-exposure links. The DeXposure-FM is empirically validated on two machine learning benchmarks; it consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches, including a graph foundation model and temporal graph neural networks. DeXposure-FM further produces financial economics tools that support macroprudential monitoring and scenario-based DeFi stress testing, by enabling protocol-level systemic-importance scores, sector-level spillover and concentration measures via a forecast-then-measure pipeline. Empirical verification fully supports our financial economics tools. The model and code have been publicly available. Model: https://huggingface.co/EVIEHub/DeXposure-FM. Code: https://github.com/EVIEHub/DeXposure-FM.

Do the functional narratives in cryptocurrency whitepapers correspond to how their tokens behave in markets? We develop a content-verified, contamination-aware pipeline for measuring structural correspondence between project narratives and market structure, and report two results. The first is a cautionary one. An apparent entity-level signal in an earlier version of our corpus -- specialised tokens appearing to align more strongly than broad infrastructure tokens -- was entirely an artifact of corpus contamination: roughly a quarter of the documents were failed-download stubs or wrong-document whitepapers (for example, a "Cosmos" entry that was in fact Binance Smart Chain text), and the apparent ordering does not survive content verification: on the clean corpus no token registers as helping alignment. We therefore report it as a contamination diagnosis, not a finding. The second is an honest null. Combining zero-shot NLP classification of 43 content-verified whitepapers across 10 semantic categories with seven cross-sectional market-structure statistics computed from hourly data (17,543 timestamps, 2023-2024), and aligning the two spaces with Procrustes rotation and Tucker's congruence coefficient ($φ$), we do not detect a significant claims-market alignment in this $n = 43$ sample (dimension-matched $φ= 0.303$, zero-padded $φ= 0.223$; both non-significant). A positive-control and power analysis shows the binding constraint is the low reliability of the text instrument: the minimum detectable effect is $φ\approx 0.66$, well above the observed $\approx 0.22$. This is absence of evidence for alignment, not evidence of its absence -- we can reject strong alignment ($φ\geq 0.70$) but cannot distinguish weak alignment ($φ\approx 0.3$) from none.

Cryptocurrency trading increasingly depends on timely integration of heterogeneous web information and market microstructure signals to support short-horizon decision making under extreme volatility. However, existing trading systems struggle to jointly reason over noisy multi-source web evidence while maintaining robustness to rapid price shocks at sub-second timescales. The first challenge lies in synthesizing unstructured web content, social sentiment, and structured OHLCV signals into coherent and interpretable trading decisions without amplifying spurious correlations, while the second challenge concerns risk control, as slow deliberative reasoning pipelines are ill-suited for handling abrupt market shocks that require immediate defensive responses. To address these challenges, we propose WebCryptoAgent, an agentic trading framework that decomposes web-informed decision making into modality-specific agents and consolidates their outputs into a unified evidence document for confidence-calibrated reasoning. We further introduce a decoupled control architecture that separates strategic hourly reasoning from a real-time second-level risk model, enabling fast shock detection and protective intervention independent of the trading loop. Extensive experiments on real-world cryptocurrency markets demonstrate that WebCryptoAgent improves trading stability, reduces spurious activity, and enhances tail-risk handling compared to existing baselines. Code will be available at https://github.com/AIGeeksGroup/WebCryptoAgent.

The Web3 ecosystem, underpinned by cryptographic primitives and decentralized consensus, represents a high-stakes environment where software vulnerabilities and incentive misalignments translate directly into financial loss. As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into this domain for tasks ranging from smart contract auditing to decentralized finance analytics, ensuring their reliability is paramount. However, general-purpose benchmarks fail to capture the specialized reasoning required for these adversarial and protocol-driven settings. To bridge this gap, we introduce DMind Benchmark, a comprehensive evaluation suite designed to rigorously assess LLM proficiency across the Web3 stack. DMind Benchmark encompasses nine distinct subdomains (spanning infrastructure, smart contracts, token economics, etc.) and combines objective knowledge retrieval with complex open-ended reasoning tasks that emulate real-world operational challenges. We conduct an extensive evaluation of 31 leading proprietary and open-weights models, employing a contamination-aware pipeline and verifying the statistical robustness of our scoring protocol through rigorous cross-judge consistency checks. Our analysis reveals a critical dichotomy: while models demonstrate competence in foundational infrastructure concepts, they exhibit significant vulnerabilities in high-reasoning tasks such as security auditing. Furthermore, we provide a Pareto analysis to guide cost-effective deployment and demonstrate through adversarial experiments that high performance on DMind Benchmark necessitates genuine reasoning rather than superficial memorization. Since its open-source release in April 2025, DMind Benchmark achieved the #1 trending position on Hugging Face for nearly a week and accumulated over 13k downloads by June 2026, establishing itself as a standard for advancing secure and trustworthy AI in Web3.

This paper develops a model-based framework for continuous-time policy evaluation (CTPE) in reinforcement learning, incorporating both Brownian and Lévy noise to model stochastic dynamics influenced by rare and extreme events. Our approach formulates the policy evaluation problem as solving a partial integro-differential equation (PIDE) for the value function with unknown coefficients. A key challenge in this setting is accurately recovering the unknown coefficients in the stochastic dynamics, particularly when driven by Lévy processes with heavy tail effects. To address this, we propose a robust numerical approach that effectively handles both unbiased and censored trajectory datasets. This method combines maximum likelihood estimation with an iterative tail correction mechanism, improving the stability and accuracy of coefficient recovery. Additionally, we establish a theoretical bound for the policy evaluation error based on coefficient recovery error. Through numerical experiments, including a real-data BTC price experiment, we demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of our method in recovering heavy-tailed Lévy dynamics and verify the theoretical error analysis in policy evaluation.