Decision-Focused Learning

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4 papers in the last four weeks, against 1 the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

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Latest papers 38

Oct 6, 2026cs.LG

FedRSPO+: A Heterogeneity-aware Algorithm for Decision-focused Federated Learning

Decision-focused learning (DFL) trains predictive models for downstream optimization, but existing methods largely assume centralized data. In cross-silo settings, federated learning offers a natural alternative, yet standard federated methods optimize prediction over decision quality and do not address heterogeneity in downstream objectives or feasible sets. This heterogeneity is especially challenging for DFL because small perturbations in polyhedral problems can cause discontinuous changes in optimal decisions, destabilizing client updates and aggregation. We propose FedRSPO+, a heterogeneity-aware framework for decision-focused federated learning, built on RSPO+, a regularized predict-then-optimize surrogate that smooths the decision map through projection. We show that RSPO+ upper bounds decision error and regret for the regularized decision and, under exact regularization and consistent LP solution selection, for the original LP decision. We further derive cross-client heterogeneity bounds that depend on both objective and feasible-set heterogeneity, vanish at homogeneity, and require no strong convexity. FedRSPO+ uses an annealed, modular training procedure compatible with standard federated personalization and aggregation methods. Experiments on synthetic knapsack, shortest-path, and real-world energy pricing tasks compare against prediction-only federated learning and DFL baselines under varying heterogeneity and communication budgets. Results suggest that smoothing is a useful ingredient for stable collaborative decision learning and provide a heterogeneity-aware foundation for federated DFL.

Konstantinos Ziliaskopoulos, Alexander Vinel, Jiaqi Wang

Auburn University

Decision-Focused Learning Federated Learning Predict-Then-Optimize Heterogeneous Federated Learning

Oct 6, 2026cs.LG

Decision-Focused Learning in MDPs: An Occupancy Measure Approach

In this work, we consider decision-focused learning (DFL) for a Markov decision process (MDP), where existing methods differentiate through the KKT conditions of the Bellman equation and require solving a linear system over all state-action pairs, limiting its scalability. We address this by reformulating the MDP as an occupancy measure-based linear program (LP), whose feasible region is induced by predicted dynamics, and we derive a closed-form gradient by identifying the active constraints in the feasible polyhedron via the pivoting algorithm. This occupancy measure-based LP layer raises two challenges: (1) LP's solution gradient is discontinuous when active constraints change, and (2) the LP backward cost still scales with the state size, which is costly for large or continuous state spaces. We address the challenges with an augmented Lagrangian surrogate and smooth the boundary jumps by random row sketching of the constraints, and a learnable soft state-aggregation layer and its function-approximation generalization that scales the LP to large finite and continuous-state MDPs. Across multiple tasks, our methods reach lower regret than KKT-based DFL and two-stage baselines with significantly lower computation cost. The source code for all experiments is available at https://github.com/A-Eshragh/State_Aggregation_Project.

Zihao Zhao, Ashwath K. Karunakaram, Ali Eshragh +2

Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA · Johns Hopkins Carey Business School, Washington, DC · International Computer Science Institute, Berkeley, CA

Markov Decision Processes Decision-Focused Learning Differentiable Optimization

Oct 1, 2026cs.LG

The Curvature of Regret in Contextual Linear Optimization

Decision-focused learning for linear optimization is complicated by the discontinuity of the optimizer, where small cost errors may leave the decision unchanged or move it to a different vertex. We show that this non-smooth pointwise behavior becomes locally quadratic after averaging over the data distribution, and we derive the curvature in closed form, specifically, a matrix-valued measure supported on the walls of the normal fan. This measure depends only on the feasible set, with the data distribution entering only as a weight. We then offer a tractable approximation for this curvature, computable with just one projection to the feasible set. We prove that the approximation weakly converges to the true population curvature. We offer one application of our findings, a decision-aware scenario generation method for expected-cost linear optimization. Our experiments test the quadratic and weak convergence laws and show a 30.8% regret improvement over uniform allocation on battery arbitrage.

Konstantinos Ziliaskopoulos, Alexander Vinel, Alice E. Smith

Auburn University Auburn, AL, USA · University of Alabama Tuscaloosa, AL, USA

Decision-Focused Learning Regret Minimization Linear Programming

Sep 30, 2026cs.LG

Jacobian Rank Collapse in Decision-Focused Learning

Decision-focused learning (DFL) trains predictors through downstream objectives, but a different loss need not provide an independent parameter-update direction. We characterize this restriction through the predictor Jacobian, using sparse index tracking to distinguish the covariance entries read by the optimizer from the parameter directions available to learning. Rank-one Jacobians make nonzero per-example gradients collinear; a conditional spectral bound describes near-collinearity. A batch-subspace characterization and counterexamples show why these local statements imply neither common minimizers nor collinear batch updates. Experiments examine when geometry translates into decision quality. Across 38 one-parameter equity configurations, DFL gains over MSE remain below 1.8%; a 385-parameter conditional predictor also has pointwise rank one. In validation-tuned shortest-path and knapsack experiments, full-capacity SPO+ reduces mean regret by 11.6% and 10.6%, respectively; only knapsack survives correction across eight comparisons. The capacity contrast persists on fresh datasets across batch orders and training budgets. Holding expressivity fixed, invertible coordinate scaling lowers spectral effective rank and ordinary SGD gains; compensating for the scaling restores the original trajectories. Financial forward-target controls separate forecast accuracy from decision quality; a matched neural comparison finds no aggregate DFL advantage in the tested architecture. These findings distinguish local rank restrictions, coordinate-dependent optimization and predictive accuracy. Predictor geometry helps explain available learning directions, while held-out decision quality remains the test of practical benefit.

Aojie Yuan, Haiyue Zhang, Zijian Su

University of Southern California · University of Michigan

Decision-Focused Learning

Sep 27, 2026cs.LG

Geometric Identification in Predict-Then-Optimize Learning

Decision-focused surrogates can recover downstream decisions without identifying the quotient report. We characterize the equality set of the convex Smart Predict-then-Optimize surrogate (SPO+) population risk. Under central symmetry, the centered mean class is the unique Bayes minimizer exactly when every nonzero effective displacement makes the old optimizer leave the shifted optimal face with positive probability. This condition separates face crossing from selected-oracle disagreement and gives quantitative local coercivity. Without symmetry, strict crossing alone need not identify the mean; selection balance with reflected crossing restores quotient-report identification, and conditional versions extend the result to measurable predictors. These are population statements, without finite-sample report-recovery or generic transfer-regret guarantees. Closed-form mechanisms reproduce the analytic identities and rates. Portfolio, complete-matrix KuaiRec, and Energy/Storage studies measure predictive fidelity, shifted regret, and fitted-report geometry. A known data-generating process (DGP) companion retains their application geometries while isolating conditional-mean recovery and crossing, without testing the original observational assumptions.

Jiaxiao Xu, Changhong Mou, Keji Liu +2

Shanghai University of Finance and Economics · Utah State University

Predict-Then-Optimize Decision-Focused Learning Statistical Learning Theory

Sep 14, 2026cs.LG

Optimizing for the decision not the prediction: an exploration of Smooth Net Benefit as a training objective

Objective Prediction models are commonly trained using objectives such as Bernoulli negative log-likelihood (NLL), although downstream clinical decisions may depend on specific risk thresholds. We introduce Smooth Net Benefit (

\sigma

NB), a differentiable approximation of Net Benefit designed to align model training with threshold-specific clinical utility. Materials and Methods We evaluated

\sigma

NB as a training objective for logistic regression, generalized additive models (GAMs), and XGBoost with three Hessian implementations. Experiments used the Framingham cardiovascular risk dataset and 44 TabZilla datasets comprising 72 dataset-threshold combinations. Results

\sigma

NB training did not consistently improve Net Benefit in Framingham. Across the TabZilla benchmark, mean standardized Net Benefit for logistic regression increased from 0.5669 with NLL to 0.5765 with

\sigma

NB (mean difference 0.0096, 95% CI -0.0001 to 0.0193). For GAMs, mean standardized Net Benefit decreased from 0.5921 to 0.5625 (mean difference -0.0296, 95% CI -0.0721 to 0.0129). For XGBoost, NLL achieved 0.6745 compared with 0.6723--0.6735 across

\sigma

NB implementations. In logistic regression,

\sigma

NB gains were positively associated with the performance advantage of XGBoost over NLL-trained logistic regression. Discussion The effect of

\sigma

NB was context dependent, with modest gains concentrated in logistic regression and little benefit for more flexible model classes. This suggests that decision-focused optimization may be most useful when limited model flexibility leaves greater scope for improvement. Conclusion Our results do not support

\sigma

NB as a general replacement for NLL training, but support further investigation of decision-focused objectives in settings where conventional likelihood-based training may not adequately capture decision-relevant structure.

Koen M. F. Gorgels, Lasai Barreñada, Maarten van Smeden +3

Department of Data Science and Biostatistics, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands · Coo peratie VGZ, Arnhem, the Netherlands · Department of Development and Regeneration, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium

Predict-Then-Optimize Decision-Focused Learning Clinical Decision-Making Clinical Risk Prediction

Aug 10, 2026cs.GT

Decision-Focused Learning in Network Interdiction Games

We study decision-focused learning (DFL) in shortest-path network interdiction (SPNI) games, a Stackelberg game where an interdictor (leader) strengthens the networks' arcs against attacks, while an evader (follower) who is uncertain about costs of attacking network arcs relies on a machine-learned predictor to identify the shortest path. While DFL is highly effective as an end-to-end optimization framework, we show that it faces a fundamental structural failure when employed in this game setting: its training objective admits a broad decision-equivalence class of cost estimators that achieve zero nominal loss yet fail under interdiction, reversing DFL's usual advantage over a naive prediction-focused learning (PFL) approach. To address this, we propose Adversarial DFL (A-DFL), which replaces nominal training samples with interdicted scenarios to collapse the harmful equivalence class. Experiments on synthetic and real-world networks confirm that A-DFL restores DFL's advantage in this game setting, enabling effective end-to-end optimization.

Luca M. Hartmann, Parinaz Naghizadeh

ECE Department, UC San Diego

Adversarial Training Stackelberg Games Combinatorial Optimization Decision-Focused Learning

Aug 2, 2026cs.LG

When Do Surrogate Updates Improve Decisions? A Local Theory of Trajectory-Wise Transfer

A broad range of models face the mismatch where they are updated through trajectory losses but are evaluated by downstream task reward. Here, a trajectory is a training instance that induces a surrogate loss whose reduction might not track the model's decision utility update. Theoretically, we ask when one step of trajectory training reduces both population surrogate loss and decision risk, and how transfer accumulates along repeated updates. To formalize this, we first fix a checkpoint and a restricted update space, and define the reductions in population surrogate risk and decision risk induced by a trajectory as its learnability and decision utility, respectively. On this basis, our theory yields four main results. First, a one-step transfer bound separates their discrepancy into first-order gradient misalignment after nonnegative calibration and second-order curvature; and a pathwise extension accumulates the same terms over repeated updates. Second, when the accessible surrogate gradient is nonzero, universal first-order transfer over every accessible direction holds exactly when the accessible surrogate and decision gradients are positively collinear. Third, the calibration gap bounds the decision regret of learnability-based trajectory selection, while a candidate-difference refinement tightens this guarantee by retaining only directions that affect pairwise rankings. Finally, we establish an approximation--calibration trade-off across nested update spaces. Controlled gridworld and LLM post-training experiments yield results consistent with our predictions.

Yuyang Shen

The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen

Surrogate Modeling Decision-Focused Learning Gradient Descent Dynamics Gradient Alignment

Jul 31, 2026cs.LG

End-to-End Fairness Optimization with Fair Decision-Focused Learning

Many real-world systems rely on predictive models to inform decisions, and fairness concerns arise in both the prediction and decision stages. We introduce end-to-end fairness optimization (E2EFO) as a unifying framework that integrates fairness across the prediction-to-decision pipeline. We focus on resource allocation with group-based fairness: the prediction task estimates allocation impacts while limiting accuracy disparity across groups, and the decision task distributes those impacts equitably by optimizing a group-based alpha-fairness measure. Within this framework, we propose fair decision-focused learning (FDFL), a training paradigm that jointly accounts for prediction accuracy, prediction fairness, and decision regret -- the loss in decision fairness due to imperfect predictions. FDFL trains the predictor by gradient descent, combining the objective gradients through multi-task learning techniques. The core computational challenge is the decision Jacobian with respect to the predictor parameters: we derive exact closed-form formulas for a tractable class of fair allocation and apply a differentiable optimization layer in the general case. We further establish a finite-sample generalization bound for the scalarized FDFL objective. Numerical experiments on a healthcare-based single resource allocation and a synthetic multiple resource allocation illustrate the value of jointly accounting for prediction fairness and decision fairness in prediction-informed decision-making.

Yu Wang, Violet Xinying Chen

School of Business Stevens Institute of Technology

Fair Resource Allocation Algorithmic Fairness Decision-Focused Learning Group Fairness

Jul 29, 2026cs.LG

Scores Are Not Decisions: Cost-Aware Stopping for Tool Acquisition in LLM Agents

As LLM agents increasingly depend on diverse external services such as search engines, databases, and connectors, agent harnesses face a fundamental tool-selection challenge: acquiring too few tools leaves the task under-informed, while too many adds cost, context load, and privacy exposure. Routers and retrievers can rank candidate tools by relevance, but a ranking alone does not determine how many are worth selecting. Existing approaches leave acquisition under heterogeneous costs unaddressed. We formulate this decision as cost-aware marginal decision-focused stopping (CAM-DF) over ranked tool prefixes, with CAM-DF-lite as a compact interpretable variant. We train directly on the offline gap between stopping now and the best continuation: its sign labels the decision, its magnitude weights each error by the payoff at stake. We prove this objective is Bayes-aligned with the stopping target and that score-only rules are suboptimal under heterogeneous costs. We evaluate on 1,343 tasks across five tool-use domains. On

τ

-bench Retail, CAM-DF attains the highest payoff among deployable methods, with gains over a predict-then-threshold baseline across all five ranking sources and two cost regimes. Our approach is state-of-the-art under heterogeneous costs and high cost pressure, with larger gains under weaker rankings. In live execution, CAM-DF exposes the agent to 37% fewer tools than full access while maintaining comparable task success. The CAM-DF family is a lightweight pre-execution plugin that turns existing tool rankings into lower-cost acquisition decisions without fine-tuning the underlying LLM.

Yicheng Feng, Yan Zhang, Yan Cheng +1

School of Advanced Manufacturing and Robotics, Peking University · Desautels Faculty of Management, McGill University · Business School, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics +1

Decision-Focused Learning Tool-Using Agents LLM Decision-Making Tool-Using Language Agents

Jul 27, 2026math.OC

Smooth Learning with Hard Constraints via Legendre-Regularized Policies

We revisit contextual optimization from the perspective of policy class design. A desirable policy class should be expressive enough to learn rich context-decision relationships, should enforce hard feasibility constraints rather than soft penalty terms, and should remain smooth enough for gradient-based training on downstream decision losses. Existing approaches usually emphasize only part of these requirements. We propose Legendre-regularized policies, which parameterize decisions as solutions of regularized optimization problems over the original feasible region. This construction yields policies that are feasible by construction and differentiable with respect to learned latent parameters. We prove that the associated optimizer map is single-valued, maps onto the relative interior of the feasible set, admits an explicit Jacobian, is Lipschitz continuous, and can be made arbitrarily smooth. We also establish a universal approximation result showing that the proposed class can approximate any continuous feasible policy on compact context sets. The framework unifies explicitly regularized optimizers and implicit perturbation-based smooth optimizers. Experiments on contextual newsvendor and resource allocation problems show that our approach improves prescriptive performance relative to the benchmark methods.

Zikun Lin, Rui Chen, Yijie Wang

Department of Systems Engineering and Engineering Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China. · School of Data Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China. · School of Economics and Management, Tongji University, Shanghai, China.

Decision-Focused Learning Constrained Optimization Differentiable Optimization

Jul 23, 2026cs.LG

Smart predict-then-robustly-optimize

In this paper, we propose and study a robust variant of the smart predict-then-optimize approach that accounts for prediction shifts due to disturbance in the covariate feature space. While traditional integrated-learning-and-optimization models assume that side information is perfectly revealed, empirical data-driven features are frequently corrupted or noisy at the time of decision-making, leading to fragile operational policies. To bridge this gap, we integrate principles of robust optimization directly into the predictive-prescriptive pipeline via a smart predict-then-robustly optimize loss and establish a computationally tractable convex surrogate, designed to hedge against worst-case feature perturbations. On the theoretical front, we formalize the structural validity of this surrogate by proving its approximation error probability decays exponentially according to a sub-Gaussian concentration profile. Furthermore, we establish that under mild assumptions, the surrogate is Fisher consistent with high probability. We also prove necessary conditions under which our framework outperforms standard smart predict-then-optimize and maintain its superiority even when the standard method is equipped with regularized upstream predictions. Numerical experiments validate that our robust framework consistently yields significant performance improvements over standard methods, both in out-of-sample terms and in training stability.

Aakil Caunhye, Xuefei Lu, Belen Martin-Barragan

Distribution Shift Robustness Predict-Then-Optimize Decision-Focused Learning Robust Optimization Robust Loss Functions Statistical Learning Theory

Jul 20, 2026cs.LG

Weak-to-Strong Learning in Decision Making

Many operational decisions rely on predictive models that estimate uncertain outcomes conditional on observable contexts. Training such models, however, often faces a fundamental data asymmetry: labeled outcomes are scarce or costly to obtain, while contextual covariates are abundant. Motivated by this data asymmetry, we develop a decision-aware weak-to-strong (W2S) framework that leverages both labeled and unlabeled data to improve contextual stochastic optimization. Specifically, we first train a weak model using limited labeled data and then use it to generate predicted outcome distributions on unlabeled contexts. These distributions provide soft supervision for training a strong model. We establish a non-asymptotic upper bound on the excess decision risk of W2S and a complementary lower bound for a strong-only benchmark. Their comparison yields explicit sufficient conditions under which W2S improves downstream decision performance. The key quantity is the correlation dimension between the weak and strong feature representations: when it is small, abundant unlabeled data reduce the effect of teacher errors along non-overlapping directions. A synthetic newsvendor experiment and a comment moderation experiment based on real-world data provide empirical evidence consistent with the theory.

Jingwei Ji, Renyuan Xu

Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University

Stochastic Optimization Decision-Focused Learning Weak-to-Strong Generalization Semi-Supervised Learning Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Jul 10, 2026cs.LG

Learning Predictive Ambiguity Sets for Decision-Focused Distributionally Robust Optimization

Predict-then-optimize systems usually compress uncertainty into a point forecast and then solve a downstream optimization problem as if the forecast were reliable. Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) offers protection against misspecification, but the ambiguity set is often centered at historical samples and uses a fixed radius. We propose \emph{learned predictive ambiguity sets} (LPAS): a deep contextual model outputs a finite nominal scenario distribution, a state-dependent Wasserstein radius, and optionally an anisotropic ground metric. These outputs define a contextual ambiguity set that feeds a DRO decision layer. The radius is trained by a combination of conditional quantile calibration, size regularization, and downstream decision loss, so that robustness is adaptive rather than globally fixed. We derive the finite dual form used by the decision layer, present a staged training algorithm, and evaluate the method on distributionally robust portfolio optimization with 20 S&P 500 constituents from 2018--2026. The proposed method substantially improves over equal-weight, predict-then-optimize, and historical Wasserstein DRO baselines, achieving 26.28% annualized return, Sharpe ratio 1.30, final wealth 1.61, and lower tail loss than a deep fixed-radius DRO baseline while using a smaller average radius. The results show that learned ambiguity radii can recover most of the performance of strong fixed-radius DRO while reducing unnecessary conservatism and improving regime adaptivity.

Junjie Guo

Rutgers University

Distributionally Robust Optimization Decision-Focused Learning Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization Portfolio Optimization

Jul 7, 2026cs.LG

Decision-Focused Scenario Generation and Selection for Efficient and Robust Grid Dispatch

The increasing uncertainty from flexible demand and renewable generation has made distributionally robust optimization (DRO) an important tool for robust power system dispatch. DRO relies on forecast scenarios to construct ambiguity sets, but conventional scenario generation pipelines are often trained in an accuracy-oriented manner and may neglect spatial correlations among uncertainties. This mismatch can produce ambiguity sets that are statistically plausible but suboptimal for downstream operation. This work proposes a decision-focused generative framework for correlated scenario generation in DRO-based dispatch. Instead of training generative models solely to fit the historical uncertainty distribution, the proposed framework optimizes generated scenarios according to their induced downstream operational cost. The proposed framework is tailored to mainstream generative models, including variational autoencoders, generative adversarial networks, and diffusion models, while capturing the joint distribution of uncertainties across buses. To improve computational tractability, we further develop a differentiable scenario selector that selects decision-relevant scenarios from a generated pool and can be trained within the same decision-focused pipeline. Case studies demonstrate that the proposed framework effectively reduces 0.80%-2.02% operational cost across different generative models compared to accuracy-oriented methods.

Yangze Zhou, Yihong Zhou, Thomas Morstyn +1

Distributionally Robust Optimization Decision-Focused Learning Generative Modeling Decision-Making under Uncertainty Power Systems

Jul 1, 2026cs.LG

Decision-Aware Training for Sample-Based Generative Models

Sample-based generative models are increasingly used for probabilistic forecasting in high-stakes decision settings, yet their training objectives are blind to the decision maker's cost structure. These models are commonly trained with strictly proper scoring rules, such as the energy score, which allocate their training signal in proportion to data density, with no awareness of where forecast errors are most costly for downstream decisions. We therefore propose decision-aware training for sample-based generative models, augmenting the energy score objective with a differentiable decision loss that directly penalises the cost incurred by acting on the model's forecast. This combined loss is theoretically grounded, as the decision loss is itself a proper scoring rule. We validate our method on one synthetic and two real-world tasks, showing targeted improvements in cost-sensitive regions while retaining full probabilistic forecasts.

Kornelius Raeth, Nicole Ludwig

T ubingen AI Center, University of T ubingen, Germany · University of Augsburg, Germany

Cost-Sensitive Learning Probabilistic Forecasting Decision-Focused Learning Proper Scoring Rules Generative Modeling

Jul 1, 2026cs.LG

Decision-focused Sparse Tangent Portfolio Optimization

Sparse tangent portfolio optimization aims to learn an interpretable, low-cardinality portfolio in the tangency direction of the mean-variance frontier. However, the associated cardinality-constrained formulation is NP-hard, and standard predict-then-optimize pipelines often misalign forecasting accuracy with downstream portfolio quality. We propose an end-to-end decision-focused learning framework that reformulates Sharpe ratio maximization as a Disciplined Parametrized Programming (DPP)-compliant convex programming layer and replaces discrete selection with a smooth top-

k

operator enforcing an exact cardinality

k

. This enables gradient flow through prediction, asset selection, and re-optimization, allowing the predictive model to directly optimize portfolio performance. Across four major equity markets, our method achieves competitive and often superior out-of-sample Sharpe ratios compared with historical and prediction-focused baselines, with particularly strong gains in larger asset universes. Our code is publicly available.

Haeun Jeon, Seunghoon Choi, Hyunglip Bae +2

Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon, Republic of Korea · Department of Big Data Convergence, and Bigdata Research Lab, Chonnam National University, Gwangju, Republic of Korea · Department of Industrial Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan, Republic of Korea

Decision-Focused Learning Portfolio Optimization Differentiable Optimization Finance

Jun 24, 2026cs.LG

$\text{DT}^2$ : Decision-Targeted Digital Twins

A digital twin (DT) is a virtual model of a real-world system that can assist decision-making by simulating scenarios induced by different policies. However, typical machine learning-based DTs do not optimise for this use case. We prove that, when model capacity is limited, training DTs to minimise one-step transition errors can produce suboptimal models for ranking sets of policies according to a reward function. We further show that this holds empirically, even with expressive model classes. To address this, we introduce

\text{DT}^2

, a decision-targeted DT training paradigm. Firstly,

\text{DT}^2

uses fitted Q-evaluation to estimate values of candidate policies from offline data. A DT is then trained to generate rollouts that preserve pairwise policy rankings derived from these proxy ground-truth values with an architecture-agnostic loss function. We empirically demonstrate the efficacy of our method across a range of settings and architectures.

\text{DT}^2

consistently improves policy ranking and reduces decision regret during policy selection relative to conventional DT training, both for policies used during training and for unseen policies, while maintaining a good level of raw simulation fidelity.

Harry Amad, Mihaela van der Schaar

Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.

Decision-Focused Learning Digital Twins

Jun 19, 2026cs.LG

Decision-Focused Learning: When and Why Traditional Prediction Models Fail

Plugging predictions of unknown parameters into downstream optimization problems, often referred to as the ``predict-then-optimize'' paradigm, has long been a standard approach in decision-making under uncertainty. However, improved predictive accuracy does not, in general, translate into improved decision quality. This disconnect has motivated growing interest in decision-focused learning (DFL) within the operations research community. This tutorial reviews recent developments in DFL and highlights key methodological insights, with a particular focus on stochastic linear programming as the downstream decision-making problem. We discuss why several widely used tools in traditional statistical learning are not directly suited to decision-focused settings and must be rethought, including (i) data collection strategies driven purely by predictive uncertainty and (ii) distributional distance measures such as the Wasserstein distance. We summarize properties of DFL that distinguish it from conventional predictive modeling and provide insights into the development of new decision-focused tools.

Mo Liu

Department of Statistics and Operations Research, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Predict-Then-Optimize Decision-Focused Learning Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Jun 17, 2026stat.ML

A Solver-Free Training Method for Predict-then-Optimize

We propose a scalable method for training prediction (machine learning) models in the predict-then-optimize paradigm, where model outputs serve as coefficients for a subsequent linear optimization task. Directly minimizing the empirical decision regret is intractable for linear programming and combinatorial optimization since the decision mapping is piecewise constant, and the gradients are zero almost everywhere. While existing methods address this by smoothing the differentiation process, they suffer from scalability issues, since a computationally expensive solver call is required for every gradient evaluation. To address this, we propose a decision-focused learning pipeline based on a measure transformation principle, which yields a new surrogate loss that is completely optimization-solver-free during training. We establish theoretical guarantees, including Fisher consistency and excess risk bounds. Empirically, our method achieves decision quality competitive with state-of-the-art methods while reducing training time by orders of magnitude.

Beichen Wan, Mo Liu

Department of Statistics and Operations Research, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, NC, USA.

Predict-Then-Optimize Learning to Optimize Decision-Focused Learning

Jun 17, 2026cs.LG

Forecasting what Matters: Decision-Focused RL for Controlled EV Charging with Unknown Departure Times

The recent growth of EV adoption poses challenges for power systems, including increased peak demand and potential grid instability. Smart control of EV charging -- e.g., based on reinforcement learning (RL) -- can alleviate these issues by learning temporal and contextual patterns from historical data. Yet, in real-world scenarios, key features, such as departure time, often are unavailable. This, in turn, makes it harder for an RL agent to learn and execute an effective charging policy. To mitigate this uncertainty, a trained forecaster can approximate the unknown features from available data. However, since these forecasting models are typically trained for accuracy (rather than their impact on a downstream agent's decision quality), their errors may propagate and hinder the overall performance of a controller that is using the forecasts. To avoid this, we propose a decision-focused RL (DF-RL) framework in which the forecaster is trained end-to-end, i.e., with feedback from the charging policy actions taken by the RL agent. Such joint training of both the forecaster and controller ultimately results in higher-quality actions: our proposed DF-RL method yields superior charging decisions compared to other baselines, achieving up to a 14% improvement in total reward and a 55% reduction of unsupplied energy (i.e., charging that failed to happen because the EV already left), relative to the RL method without departure time forecasting.

Giuseppe Gabriele, Fabio Pavirani, Seyed Soroush Karimi Madahi +1

Ghent University – imec Ghent, Belgium

RL Control Electric Vehicle Charging Decision-Focused Learning

Jun 15, 2026cs.LG

Decision-Weighted Flow Matching for Contextual Stochastic Optimization

Conditional generative models are increasingly used as scenario generators for stochastic optimization, but standard training objectives emphasize uniform distributional fit rather than the downstream decisions induced by generated scenarios. This creates an objective mismatch: errors in statistically common regions may have little effect on decision regret, whereas errors in decision-sensitive regions can substantially change the optimal action. We propose Decision-Weighted Flow Matching (DW-FM), a regret-aligned training framework that preserves the simplicity of standard flow matching while reweighting its velocity-regression objective using decision-sensitive endpoint information. Theoretically, we connect downstream regret to pathwise velocity mismatch through a loss-induced decision discrepancy and an adjoint transport argument, yielding an ideal regret-aligned surrogate and practical endpoint-weighted objectives with regret guarantees. Empirically, we demonstrate the effectiveness of DW-FM on three CVaR-based contextual stochastic optimization benchmarks spanning synthetic portfolio, semi-real financial, and traffic-CVaR tasks, where DW-FM improves downstream regret over standard baselines.

Jize Xie, Haomiao Wu, Qiang Chen +2

Department of Industrial Engineering and Decision Analytics Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

Stochastic Optimization Conditional Flow Matching Decision-Focused Learning Flow-Based Generative Modeling

Jun 7, 2026cs.LG

Scaling Decision-Focused Learning to Large Problems with Lagrangian Decomposition

Decision-focused learning has shown great promise for addressing predict-then-optimize problems, particularly in the presence of under-specified models. However, its practical deployment is often hindered by high computational costs and limited scalability, as it requires solving a constrained optimization problem for each training instance at every iteration. To address these challenges, we propose a novel framework that incorporates Lagrangian decomposition into the decision-focused learning paradigm. Specifically, we introduce a new surrogate objective along with two loss functions for evaluating and training the underlying prediction model. We further propose two variants of our approach, which offer different trade-offs between computational efficiency and solution quality. Our framework can be seamlessly integrated with standard decision-focused learning methods, including Smart Predict-then-Optimize (SPO+) and Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE). Through experiments on two standard benchmarks, the multi-dimensional knapsack problem and quadratic portfolio optimization, we demonstrate that our approach achieves competitive performance while remaining amenable to parallelization. In particular, it consistently outperforms traditional decision-focused learning methods on large-scale instances, involving up to eight times more variables than those typically considered in related work. The implementation is available at https://github.com/corail-research/DFL-LD.

Stéphane Eilles-Chan Way, Hugo Percot, Quentin Cappart +2

Polytechnique Montréal, Montreal, Canada · Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France · UCLouvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium +2

Predict-Then-Optimize Learning to Optimize Combinatorial Optimization Decision-Focused Learning

Jun 1, 2026cs.LG

Aligning Data-Driven Predictors with Allocation: A Decision-Focused Approach to Survival Analysis

Machine learning predictors have become essential tools for guiding automated decision making. However, a major misalignment persists: predictive models are typically optimized in terms of standard statistical metrics in isolation from the algorithmic tasks they inform. We highlight this incongruity in the high-stakes domain of organ allocation by demonstrating that any algorithm relying on (even highly accurate) survival predictors optimized for standard metrics -- such as the Concordance index (C-index) -- can yield arbitrarily poor outcomes when used for allocation, failing to guarantee utility better than a uniform random selection. To bridge the gap between survival analysis and policy optimization, we introduce a decision-focused learning approach based on optimizing normalized discounted cumulative gain (NDCG), a mainstay metric in information retrieval. We establish the utility of NDCG in survival analysis by proving that it translates to guarantees on the performance of allocation. Empirically, we propose a bootstrapping approach to optimize the NDCG of existing survival models. Unlike prior work, we also address the challenge of right censorship when evaluating ranking. On historical heart transplant data from the US, our method dramatically boosts the NDCG of baseline models by 50-100%, which translates to tens of thousands of additional life years gained annually when deployed for transplant allocation. We anticipate that our framework will find broader applications in decision making with predictions.

Itai Zilberstein, Ioannis Anagnostides, Tuomas Sandholm

Department of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA · Additional affiliations: Strategy Robot, Inc., Strategic Machine, Inc., Optimized Markets, Inc.

Learning to Rank Survival Analysis Decision-Focused Learning Clinical Decision-Making

May 31, 2026cs.LG

Decision-Focused On-Policy Learning for Contextual Linear Optimization with Partial Feedback

Decision-focused learning (DFL) trains predictive models by optimizing downstream decision quality rather than standalone prediction accuracy. For contextual linear optimization, most existing DFL methods assume offline data and full observations of the objective cost vector. We develop an on-policy learning method for sequential contextual linear optimization under partial feedback, generalizing the standard bandit feedback setting. Our method learns a stochastic predict-then-optimize policy that samples a cost-vector prediction from a conditional distribution and solves the resulting downstream linear optimization problem. To update this distributional model, we introduce a two-component hybrid gradient estimator. The first component is a score function estimator, which provides an unbiased but potentially high-variance policy gradient estimate. The second is a decision-focused plug-in component that uses an auxiliary nuisance estimate of the latent cost vector to exploit the downstream optimization structure, becoming more informative as the estimate improves. We prove an O(T^-1/2) bound on the average squared policy-gradient norm, matching the standard non-convex SGD rate. Experiments on top-k selection, shortest path, combinatorial pricing, and a real-data energy-scheduling benchmark show that, under bandit feedback, the hybrid gradient approach achieves lower mean cumulative regret than the contextual-bandit baselines on all four benchmarks and than linear Thompson sampling on three, and that it also works with richer conditional generative cost models. Code is available at https://github.com/Joeyetinghan/on-policy-bandit-dfl.

Wyame Benslimane, Tinghan Ye, Pascal Van Hentenryck +1

Department of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research University of California, Berkeley · H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology

Predict-Then-Optimize Decision-Focused Learning Policy Gradient Methods Contextual Bandits Policy Learning

May 27, 2026stat.ML

Decision-focused learning for optimal PV-Battery scheduling

The use of residential photovoltaics has increased dramatically in recent years. With battery systems becoming more affordable, the optimal operation of a photovoltaic-battery system can bring significant savings to households. Optimal control requires correct forecasts of underlying parameters, such as photovoltaic power generation, to schedule the battery. While forecasting models have become increasingly accurate due to algorithmic advances and data availability, accuracy is typically measured in generic metrics which might not align with the downstream application. This study proposes a decision-focused learning framework that integrates optimization and prediction by training a Long Short-Term Memory photovoltaic energy forecaster on the downstream optimal scheduling of a battery system. The proposed methodology is compared against a standard two-phase approach. Across a 14-month evaluation period, the decision-focused method reduced average electricity costs across twenty buildings by 3.6% when normalized against performance bounds defined by a perfect forecast and a baseline of no optimization. Critically, this financial improvement was achieved despite the model exhibiting a root mean squared error of 19.9%, significantly higher than the decoupled model's 8.2%. Warm-starting the decision-focused model further improves results, lowering average cost by approximately 8%, while also mitigating the negative impact on statistical accuracy (root mean squared error of 13.7%). The findings are statistically significant at the 0.001 level across the twenty households and for each household individually. These results demonstrate that aligning forecast models with optimization goals is key for achieving cost advantages in PV-battery systems. Future research should replicate these findings on other datasets, alternate forecasting models and alternate optimization algorithms.

Joris Depoortere, Hussain Kazmi, Johan Driesen

ESAT-Electa KU Leuven, Kasteelpark Arenberg 10, Leuven, 3001, Belgium

Sequential Decision Making Time Series Forecasting Decision-Focused Learning Solar Power Forecasting Power Systems

May 18, 2026cs.LG

Scalable Decision-Focused Learning through Cost-Sensitive Regression

Many real-world combinatorial problems involve uncertain parameters, which can be predicted given contextual features and historical data. These predict-then-optimize' or contextual optimization' problems have gained significant attention: end-to-end training methods can now minimize the downstream task cost rather than the predictive error. However, despite their effectiveness, these decision-focused learning (DFL) approaches often rely on repeated solving of the underlying combinatorial optimization problem during training, making them computationally expensive and difficult to scale. We reframe the learning problem as a cost-sensitive multi-output regression problem: multi-output due to the combinatorial problem having multiple uncertain parameters, and cost-sensitive due to the downstream task cost being the real target. Our technical contribution is the formalization of multiple loss function components that follow from this reframing: cost-insensitive normalization, decision-aware asymmetric penalization of over- and underpredictions, and instance-based costs that mimic the true downstream task-based loss locally. These components require zero or one solve per training data instance, while requiring no further solves during training. Experiments show that the combination of loss components achieves comparable downstream task quality to the state of the art, while being significantly more efficient, enabling scaling to problem sizes that have not been tackled before with DFL.

Noah Schutte, Senne Berden, Tias Guns +2

Delft University of Technology · KU Leuven · Independent Researcher

Cost-Sensitive Learning Decision-Focused Learning

May 16, 2026cs.LG

Decision-Aware Proximal Bridge Learning for Optimal Treatment Selection

Individualized treatment selection with continuous actions requires accurate causal response estimation in decision-relevant regions, rather than uniformly over the entire action space. Estimating a global causal response surface and then choosing the treatment that maximizes it can therefore be suboptimal, since standard estimation objectives allocate modeling effort according to the observed treatment distribution rather than the regions that determine the optimal decision. While decision-aware approaches have been studied in unconfounded settings, this problem remains underexplored in proximal causal inference, where proxy variables and bridge functions enable identification under suitable assumptions even in the presence of hidden confounding. Despite recent progress, proximal methods have primarily focused on treatment-effect and potential-outcome estimation rather than treatment selection and optimal decision-making. To bridge this gap, we introduce a policy-targeted weighted bridge loss that emphasizes decision-relevant treatment regions while retaining global stabilization. We prove a regret bound showing that the proposed weighted bridge loss controls treatment-selection regret through a weighted ill-posedness constant. We instantiate the framework in decision-aware variants of several proximal bridge solvers, yielding practical algorithms that alternate between weighted bridge estimation, response-surface projection, policy update, and weight refinement. Empirically, we find that decision-aware weighting reduces regret across several bridge solvers, suggesting improved treatment selection in proximal settings.

Tomàs Garriga, Alejandro Almodóvar, Axel Brando +3

1Novartis · 2Barcelona Supercomputing Center · 3Universidad Politécnica de Madrid

Causal Effect Estimation Decision-Focused Learning Causal Inference

May 12, 2026cs.LG

IGT-OMD: Implicit Gradient Transport for Decision-Focused Learning under Delayed Feedback

Decision-focused learning trains predictive models end-to-end against downstream decision loss, but online settings suffer delayed feedback: outcomes may not arrive for many environment interactions. We identify \emph{staleness amplification}, a failure mode unique to bilevel optimization under delay, in which gradient staleness couples with inner-solver sensitivity to inflate regret beyond single-level delay theory. We prove that any black-box delayed optimizer incurs an irreducible regret cost from inner-solver approximation error, and that gradient staleness contributes a quadratically growing transport error without bilevel-aware correction. Our algorithm, \textbf{IGT-OMD}, applies Implicit Gradient Transport to hypergradients within Online Mirror Descent, re-evaluating stale gradients at the current parameters using stored inner solutions. This method reduces transport error from a quadratic to a linear dependence on delay and achieves the first sublinear regret bound for delayed bilevel optimization with queue-length-adaptive step sizes. Controlled experiments provide a \emph{mechanistic fingerprint}: transport benefit is exactly

0.0\%

(

p=1.00

) at unit delay and grows monotonically to

9.5\%

at fifty rounds (

p<0.001

), isolating the correction's effect. On Linear Quadratic Regulator, Warcraft shortest-path, and Sinkhorn optimal transport, IGT-OMD reduces decision loss by

17

--

55\%

relative to single-level baselines, with phase transitions matching the theory.

Benjamin Amoh, Geoffrey G. Parker, Wesley Marrero

Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College

Predict-Then-Optimize Decision-Focused Learning Online Mirror Descent Bilevel Optimization

May 8, 2026cs.AI

MPD $^2$ -Router: Mask-aware Multi-expert Prior-regularized Dual-head Deferral Router in Glaucoma Screening and Diagnosis

Learning-to-defer (L2D) can make glaucoma screening safer by routing difficult/uncertain cases to humans, yet standard formulations overlook expert availability, heterogeneous readers behavior, workload imbalance, asymmetric diagnostic harm, case difficulty from morphology and deployment shift. We introduce MPD

^2

-Router, a mask-aware multi-expert deferral framework that recasts ophthalmic triage as constrained human--AI routing: whether to defer and to which available expert. It couples a dual-head deferral/allocation policy with mask-aware Gumbel--sigmoid gating that strictly enforces per-sample availability, and fuses uncertainty, morphology, image-quality, and OOD signals. Training uses an asymmetric cost-sensitive objective with an augmented-Lagrangian deferral budget, a group-specific distribution prior, and a rank-majorization JS regularizer that jointly prevent expert collapse without forcing uniform allocation. Across three cross-national glaucoma cohorts (REFUGE, CHAKSU, ORIGA) with a frozen REFUGE-trained backbone, MPD

^2

-Router substantially lowers clinical cost and improves MCC over AI-only at a moderate deferral rate. It is Pareto-optimal in F1--MCC--cost, robust under cross-domain shift, and yields balanced expert utilization.

Wenxin Zhan

Baruch college

AI-Assisted Decision Making Learning to Defer Medical Diagnosis Decision-Focused Learning