Decision-Making under Uncertainty

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18 papers in the last four weeks, up 200% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

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  1. Finite Reliability Representations: Noise-Calibrated Belief-Space Covers for Reliable Decision-Making

    Jul 4, 2026Hyung-Jin Yoon, Hunmin KimBelief-Space PlanningPartially Observable Markov Decision Processes

  2. Prediction Sets for Counterfactual Decisions: Coverage, Optimality, and Conformal Prediction

    Jul 2, 2026Yurui Zheng, Ying JinSet PredictionConformal Prediction

    School of Mathematical Sciences, Peking University · Department of Statistics and Data Science, University of Pennsylvania

  3. Uncertainty-Aware Generation and Decision-Making Under Ambiguity

    Jun 29, 2026Nico Daheim, Iryna GurevychIntelligent Tutoring SystemsLLM Decision-Making

    Ubiquitous Knowledge Processing Lab (UKP Lab), Department of Computer Science, Technical University of Darmstadt · National Research Center for Applied Cybersecurity ATHENE, Germany

  4. Robust Strategic Classification under Decision-Dependent Cost Uncertainty

    Jun 29, 2026Sura Alhanouti, Güzin Bayraksan, Parinaz NaghizadehStrategic ClassificationRobust Optimization

    Department of Integrated Systems Engineering, The Ohio State University, Ohio, USA · Department of Industrial Engineering, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of California, San Diego, USA

  5. Value of Information under Imprecise Probabilities: Decision-Rule-Specific Values and Fixed-Measure Envelopes on a Credal Set

    Jun 26, 2026Rowan IskandarValue of InformationDecision-Making under Uncertainty

    Medtronic Trading Sàrl, Tolochenaz, VD, Switzerland · Center for Evidence Synthesis in Health, Brown University School of Public Health, Providence, RI, USA

  6. Decision-Aligned Evaluation of Uncertainty Quantification

    Jun 25, 2026Annika Schneider, Tommy Rochussen, Joshua Stiller +1Uncertainty QuantificationProper Scoring Rules

    1Technical University of Munich · 2Helmholtz AI · 3MCML +3

  7. Action-BED: Task-Driven Bayesian Experimental Design with Singly Intractable Objectives

    Jun 22, 2026Tom Rossa, Angus Phillips, Tom RainforthBayesian Decision TheoryBayesian Experimental Design

    Department of Statistics University of Oxford

  8. Against Proxy Optimization

    Jun 22, 2026Sven NethPreference OptimizationDecision-Making under Uncertainty

    University of Pittsburgh

  9. Minimax Quantile Lower Bounds for Interactive Statistical Decision Making with Privacy

    Jun 22, 2026Raghav Bongole, Amirreza Zamani, Tobias J. Oechtering +1Multi-Armed BanditsDecision-Making under Uncertainty

    Department of Information Science and Engineering (ISE) KTH Royal Institute of Technology

  10. YUKTI: From Natural-Language Situations to Robust, Verifiable Decisions An Uncertainty-Typed Proposition IR, Assumption-Robust Pareto Frontiers, and a Regret Certificate

    Jun 22, 2026Suyash MishraLarge Language Model-Guided OptimizationRobust Optimization

    AI Researcher

  11. Decision-Focused Learning: When and Why Traditional Prediction Models Fail

    Jun 19, 2026Mo LiuPredict-Then-OptimizeDecision-Focused Learning

    Department of Statistics and Operations Research, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

  12. Evidential Fusion Network for Multimodal Survival Prediction under Missing Modalities

    Jun 18, 2026Yucheng Xing, Hailan Mo, Zi Wang +2Missing-Modality LearningUncertainty Quantification

    National University of Singapore, Singapore · Imperial College London, London, UK

  13. Matching Markets meet Cumulative Prospect Theory: Towards Optimal and Adversarially Robust Learning

    Jun 18, 2026Ananya Kunisetty, Avishek GhoshMulti-Armed BanditsDecision-Making under Uncertainty

    Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai 400076, India

  14. Decision-Driven Geosteering Under Uncertainty: A Unified Framework for Sequential Decision Optimization

    Jun 15, 2026Hibat Errahmen Djecta, Sergey Alyaev, Kristian Fossum +3RL ControlReinforcement Learning

    NORCE Research Centre, Bergen, Norway · University of Stavanger, Stavanger, Norway · Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA

  15. Posterior Twins: Distributional Behavioral Simulation for Enterprise Decisions

    Jun 15, 2026Ankit DasHuman Behavior SimulationDigital Twins

    Twinning Labs · Twinning Labs, Inc.

  16. Phase-Aware Guidance Injection for Recurrent MAPPO in Assembly-Line Disruption Recovery

    Jun 15, 2026Xin Huang, Yongcai Wang, Fengyi Zhang +3Combinatorial OptimizationLLM-Guided RL

    School of Information, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China · State Key Laboratory of Multimodal Artificial Intelligence Systems, Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China · The Information Science Academy, China Electronics Technology Group Corporation, Beijing 100043, China +2

  17. Multi-Agent Framework for Audit Risk Assessment with Explicit Uncertainty and Evidence Conflict Modeling

    Jun 14, 2026Yuhan Wang, Manqing Wang, Yixuan Lu +2Uncertainty QuantificationDempster-Shafer Theory

    Columbia University New York, USA · Trine University Phoenix, USA · University of Sofia Palo Alto, USA +2

  18. Which Directions Matter? Sparse Design for Affine Robust Optimization

    Jun 12, 2026Pedro Chumpitaz-Flores, My Duong, Juan S. Borrero +1Robust OptimizationDecision-Making under Uncertainty

    University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA

  19. Capability Minimization as a Safety Primitive: Risk-Aware Causal Gating for Least-Privilege LLM Agents

    Jun 11, 2026Laxmipriya Ganesh Iyer, Rahul Suresh BabuSelective PredictionCausal Inference

    Independent Researcher

  20. Toward Proactive RF Charging Scheduling: Generative AI for Decision Support

    Jun 9, 2026Amirhossein Azarbahram, Osmel M. Rosabal, David Ernesto Ruiz-Guirola +3Wireless Resource AllocationDecision-Making under Uncertainty

    Centre for Wireless Communications (CWC), University of Oulu, Finland · School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada · Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong

  21. Decision-Calibrated Conformal Uncertainty for Pacing Decisions in Streaming Advertising

    Jun 8, 2026Prashant Shekhar, Caroline HowardSequential Decision MakingOnline Advertising

    Department of Mathematics Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Daytona Beach, FL, USA

  22. Decision-Making under Combinatorial Risk

    Jun 8, 2026Yifan Hong, Hongmiao Fan, Chen WangCognitive ModelingDecision-Making under Uncertainty

    Department of Industrial Engineering, Tsinghua University

  23. LUNA-AD: Lightweight Uncertainty-Aware Language Model with Lifelong Learning for Autonomous Driving

    Jun 7, 2026Ruoyu Yao, Pei Liu, Ruiguo Zhong +3Continual Learning for LLMsLanguage Model-Based Control

    The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou), China

  24. Accounting for Context: Shaping Moral Credences for Value Alignment

    Jun 5, 2026Jazon Szabo, Sanjay ModgilPluralistic AlignmentDecision-Making under Uncertainty

    King’s College London, UK

  25. Conformal Risk-Averse Decision Making with Action Conditional Guarantee

    Jun 4, 2026Zihan Zhu, Shayan Kiyani, George Pappas +1Group-Conditional Conformal PredictionConformal Prediction

    University of Pennsylvania

  26. Probing Outcome-Level Resemblance and Mechanism-Level Alignment in LLM Risk Decisions: Evidence from the St. Petersburg Game

    Jun 3, 2026Chensong Huang, Changyu Chen, Chenwei Lin +3LLM AlignmentLLM Decision-Making

    Fudan University · University of Rochester

  27. Bridging Predictive Uncertainty and Safe Action: Sample-Conditioned Differentiable Planning for Autonomous Driving

    Jun 2, 2026Chengzhen Meng, Pei Liu, Zhiyu Huang +2Diffusion-Based PlanningSafe Motion Planning

    Robotics and Autonomous Systems Thrust, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Guangzhou, China, and also the Department of Electronic and Computer Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong SAR, China · Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA · School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798

  28. S3TS: Stochastic Scenario-Structured Tree Search for Advanced Planning Under Uncertainty

    Jun 1, 2026Fabio Pavirani, Bert Claessens, Pierre Pinson +1Stochastic OptimizationMonte Carlo Tree Search

    IDLab Ghent university – imec, Technologiepark Zwijnaarde 126, 9052 Gent, Belgium · Beebop.ai, Belgium · Imperial College London, London, UK

  29. Sample Complexity and Decision-Theoretic Guarantees for Bayesian Model Averaging over Decision Trees with Catalan-Exponential Priors

    May 31, 2026Livija Jakaite, Vitaly SchetininSample ComplexityBayesian Inference

    School of Computing and Engineering University of Bedfordshire, Luton, UK

  30. Prospect-Theory Behavior from Bellman Optimality in MDPs with Catastrophic States

    May 31, 2026Yujiao ChenMarkov Decision ProcessesStochastic Optimal Control

    Massachusetts Institute of Technology · Cambridge, MA 02139, USA