Few-shot label acquisition lacks a label-free signal for when additional labels cease to improve accuracy: existing stopping criteria either require a held-out validation set (violating the few-shot premise) or rely on theoretically ungrounded heuristics, so we introduce the spectral saturation index
S(K)=erank(Σ^W(K))/K, the exponential spectral entropy of the pooled within-class covariance normalized by per-class support size
K, which measures the exploration rate per label and falls below a fixed threshold
τ=0.02 once the explored spectral subspace saturates and marginal accuracy gains vanish; across 49 real tasks (binary, 5-way, 10-way) and three frozen backbones (PCA-50, CLIP ViT-B/32, DINOv2 ViT-S/14),
S(K) correlates strongly with the marginal gain on doubling the support set (
ρpool=0.6366,
p=2.9×10−57, cluster-bootstrap 95% CI
[0.551,0.720]), a fixed
τ=0.02 classifies stop/continue decisions with cluster-bootstrap
AUC=0.787 (95% CI
[0.713,0.860]) with high recall on meaningful gains (
ΔA>1%), and a partial correlation controlling for
logK yields
ρpartial=0.324 (
p=1.65×10−13), confirming
S(K) carries spectral information beyond shared
K-dependence; theory predicts this from first principles, since the population effective rank sets the saturation scale
Ksat≈erank(ΣW)/τ,
τ=0.02 sits at the boundary between the first and second descent (Nakkiran et al., 2021), and
O(1/K) bias in the sample effective rank explains the small-
K hump in
S(K); for unregularized linear probes (
C=∞), practitioners should halt when
S(K)<0.02 (PCA-50, hard stop) or monitor
S(K) dropping from
∼0.3→0.05 (foundation models, diminishing-returns signal), with computation costing
∼1 ms at
d=50.