Markov

Causal-discovery algorithms return a directed graph, yet provide no principled means of distinguishing edge directions identified by the data from those assigned without an identifying assumption. Under the standard Markov and faithfulness conditions, the observational distribution identifies only a Markov equivalence class; orientations within that class are not determined by the joint distribution and cannot be recovered from additional samples alone, but require either a functional restriction or an intervention. We introduce a protocol for observational causal discovery on continuous data that attaches to each candidate edge a discrete impossibility certificate: a RESOLVED code records the identifiability theorem under which the direction was committed, while an IMPOSSIBLE code records the failure mode together with the specific question a domain expert must answer to resolve it. The bivariate cascade is extended with five gated identifiability tiers LSNM, IGCI, Stein, MDL, and PEIT that abstain when their precondition test rejects. Two oracle primitives, the meta-hub query and the node-children query, jointly establish an upper bound of $1+K$ expert interactions sufficient to recover any DAG, where $K$ denotes the number of non-leaf vertices. Under an ideal-oracle assumption, the bound is met exactly on the asia, sachs, child, and alarm benchmarks.

Many sequence computations are easier to study as movement through internal states than as isolated local circuits. We introduce Markovian Circuit Tracing (MCT), a diagnostic pipeline for testing whether transformer activations contain coarse state-transition structure. The benchmark uses synthetic Hidden Markov Model (HMM) tasks where latent states, transition matrices, Bayesian belief vectors, Bayes-optimal predictions, and forced-state counterfactual targets are known exactly. Across six HMM families and three seeds per family, tiny causal transformers learn near-Bayes next-token predictors, with mean excess loss over Bayes of 0.0138. Residual activations contain partial Bayesian belief information in this controlled synthetic benchmark. State abstractions extracted from these activations recover coarse transition signal, strongest in persistent and lower-state regimes, and weaker in ambiguous-emission and six-state regimes. The clearest result comes from state forcing. Patching a recovered-state centroid reduces KL to the exact HMM counterfactual target from 0.1957 in the unpatched model to 0.0532 on average, beating wrong-state, mean-activation, random-activation, and shuffled-label controls. The contribution is a controlled benchmark and evaluation framework for transformer state-dynamics interpretability, with MCT as a simple reference pipeline

Heavy-tailed distributions are prevalent in performance evaluation, network traffic, and risk modeling. This behavior poses a fundamental challenge for modern deep generative models. Standard Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) employ Gaussian decoder likelihoods and Lipschitz-constrained neural networks, a combination that is structurally incapable of producing heavy-tailed outputs: the Gaussian tail decays exponentially, and Lipschitz continuity prevents the decoder from amplifying rare events from the latent space input to sufficiently overcome this decay. We provide both a theoretical characterization of this limitation and a controlled empirical demonstration using synthetic Pareto data across a grid of tail indices $α$ $\in$ {2, 3, 5, 30} and dimensions d $\in$ {1, 5, 10}. As a solution, we replace the Gaussian decoder with a Phase-Type (PH) distribution based on Markov chains, while keeping the encoder, latent space, and training procedure identical. PH distributions allow for arbitrarily precise approximations of any positive-valued distributions, including heavy-tailed families. Experiments showed that the PH-based model reduces tail Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance by up to x6 and extreme quantile error by up to x10 compared to the Gaussian baseline for heavy-tailed data. These results demonstrate that integrating Markov chain-based distributions into the decoder of a generative model institutes a principled and practically effective solution to the heavy-tail generation problem.

In this paper, we derive rates of convergence in the high-dimensional central limit theorem for Polyak--Ruppert averaged iterates generated by entropy-regularized asynchronous Q-learning with linear function approximation and a polynomial stepsize $k^{-ω}$, $ω\in (1/2,1)$. Assuming that the sequence of observed triples $(s_k,a_k,s_{k+1})_{k \geq 0}$ forms a uniformly geometrically ergodic Markov chain, and under suitable regularity conditions for the projected soft Bellman equation, we establish a Gaussian approximation bound in the convex distance with rate of order $n^{-1/4}$, up to polylogarithmic factors in $n$, where $n$ is the number of samples used by the algorithm. To obtain this result, we combine a linearization of the soft Bellman recursion with a Gaussian approximation for the leading martingale term. Finally, we derive high-order moment bounds for the algorithm's last iterate, which might be of independent interest.

We propose MATE, a simple yet effective memory architecture for solving Contextual Markov Decision Processes (CMDPs), a family of MDPs parameterized by an unobserved context. In CMDPs, an optimal agent can adapt online by maintaining the posterior belief over contexts. MATE replaces this intractable posterior with a sum-aggregated memory, leveraging the posterior's permutation invariance to retain provably sufficient expressiveness. Compared to prior memory architectures, MATE avoids the growing per-step rollout cost of Transformers and the gradient issues commonly associated with Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs). Extensive evaluations across diverse benchmarks demonstrate that MATE provides clear computational advantages while achieving performance comparable to standard sequence-model baselines.

Forecasting multivariate hidden Markov processes is challenging due to nonlinear and nonstationary observations, latent state transitions, and cross-sequence dependencies. While deep learning methods achieve strong predictive accuracy, they typically lack explicit state modeling, whereas Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) provide interpretable latent states but struggle with complex nonlinear emissions and scalability. To address these limitations, we propose DRL-STAF, a Deep Reinforcement Learning based STate-Aware Forecasting framework that jointly predicts next-step observations and estimates the corresponding hidden states for complex multivariate hidden Markov processes. Specifically, DRL-STAF models complex nonlinear emissions using deep neural networks and estimates discrete hidden states using reinforcement learning, reducing the reliance on predefined transition structures and enabling flexible adaptation to diverse temporal dynamics. In particular, DRL-STAF mitigates the state-space explosion encountered by typical multivariate HMM-based methods. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DRL-STAF outperforms HMM variants, standalone deep learning models, and existing DL-HMM hybrids in most cases, while also providing reliable hidden-state estimates.

MeanFlow enables one-step generation in continuous spaces by learning an average velocity over a time interval rather than the instantaneous velocity field of flow matching. However, discrete state spaces do not have smooth trajectories or spatial derivatives, so the continuous formulation does not directly apply. We introduce Discrete MeanFlow, which replaces the motion of a point with the transport of probability mass over finite states. Our key object is the conditional transition kernel of a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC), from which we define a mean discrete rate that measures the average change in transition probability over a time interval. We prove a Discrete MeanFlow identity that relates this finite-interval rate to the instantaneous CTMC generator at the endpoint, with the Kolmogorov forward equation replacing the spatial chain rule of continuous MeanFlow. Based on this identity, we parameterize the transition kernel directly using a boundary-by-construction design that guarantees valid probability outputs and exact boundary conditions without auxiliary losses. Since the learned kernel is itself a probability distribution, generation reduces to a single forward pass followed by one categorical draw meaning no iterative denoising, ODE integration, or multi-step refinement is required. We validate the framework on exact finite-state Markov chains, where the learned kernel recovers the analytical ground truth to high precision, and on factorized synthetic sequence generation tasks with varying alphabet sizes and sequence lengths.

We propose and analyze a model-based bootstrap for transition kernels in finite controlled Markov chains (CMCs) with possibly nonstationary or history-dependent control policies, a setting that arises naturally in offline reinforcement learning (RL) when the behavior policy generating the data is unknown. We establish distributional consistency of the bootstrap transition estimator in both a single long-chain regime and the episodic offline RL regime. The key technical tools are a novel bootstrap law of large numbers (LLN) for the visitation counts and a novel use of the martingale central limit theorem (CLT) for the bootstrap transition increments. We extend bootstrap distributional consistency to the downstream targets of offline policy evaluation (OPE) and optimal policy recovery (OPR) via the delta method by verifying Hadamard differentiability of the Bellman operators, yielding asymptotically valid confidence intervals for value and $Q$-functions. Experiments on the RiverSwim problem show that the proposed bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs), especially the percentile CIs, outperform the episodic bootstrap and plug-in CLT CIs, and are often close to nominal ($50\%$, $90\%$, $95\%$) coverage, while the baselines are poorly calibrated at small sample sizes and short episode lengths.

Many reinforcement learning (RL) tasks have discrete action spaces, but most generative policy methods based on diffusion and flow matching are designed for continuous control. Meanwhile, generative policies usually rely heavily on offline datasets and offline-to-online RL is itself challenging, as the policy must improve from new interaction without losing useful behavior learned from static data. To address those challenges, we introduce DRIFT, an online fine-tuning method that updates an offline pretrained continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) policy with an advantage-weighted discrete flow matching loss. To preserve useful pretrained knowledge, we add a path-space penalty that regularizes the full CTMC trajectory distribution, rather than only the final action distribution. For large discrete action spaces, we introduce a candidate-set approximation that updates the actor over a small subset of actions sampled from reference-policy rollouts and uniform exploration. Our theoretical analysis shows that the candidate-set error is controlled by missing target probability mass, and the induced CTMC generator error decreases as the candidate set covers more high-probability actions. Experiments on prevailing discrete action RL task show that our method provides stable offline-to-online improvement across all tasks, achieving the highest average score on Jericho with a simple GRU encoder while outperforming methods that use pretrained language models. Controlled experiments further confirm that the path-space penalty remains bounded during fine-tuning and that the CTMC generator adapts to shifted rewards faster than deterministic baselines. The candidate-set mechanism is supported by a stability analysis showing that the generator error decreases exponentially with candidate coverage.

We consider anonymous multi-agent path finding (MAPF) where a set of robots is tasked to travel to a set of targets on a finite, connected graph. We show that MAPF can be cast as a special class of multi-marginal optimal transport (MMOT) problems with an underlying Markovian structure, under which the exponentially large MMOT collapses to a linear program (LP) polynomial in size. Focusing on the anonymous setting, we establish conditions under which the corresponding LP is feasible, totally unimodular, and consequently, yields min-cost, integral $(\{0,1\})$ transports that do not overlap in both space and time. To adapt the approach to large-scale problems, we cast the MAPF-MMOT in a probabilistic framework via Schrödinger bridges. Under standard assumptions, we show that the Schrödinger bridge formulation reduces to an entropic regularization of the corresponding MMOT that admits an iterative Sinkhorn-type solution. The Schrödinger bridge, being a probabilistic framework, provides a shadow (fractional) transport that we use as a template to solve a reduced LP and demonstrate that it results in near-optimal, integral transports at a significant reduction in complexity. Extensive experiments highlight the optimality and scalability of the proposed approaches.

Masked language models (MLMs) define local conditional distributions over tokens but do not, in general, correspond to any consistent joint distribution over sequences. This raises a fundamental question: what global distributional behavior is induced when such conditionals are used iteratively for generation? We address this question by modeling iterative masked-token resampling as a Glauber dynamics Markov chain on the discrete space of token sequences. We first show that MLM conditionals are intrinsically incompatible: we introduce a rectangle test that certifies this incompatibility and empirically verify its prevalence across modern MLMs. We then provide a theoretical analysis of the induced Markov chain. Under bounded cross-token influence, we establish a high-temperature contraction result implying $O(n\log n)$ mixing time where $n$ is the sequence length. In contrast, we prove that under a uniform local margin condition, the chain exhibits metastability, with exponentially slow escape from semantic basins at low temperatures. Empirically, we demonstrate a phase transition in mixing behavior as a function of temperature and sequence length, consistent with the theoretical predictions. We further characterize the induced stationary behavior through semantic trajectories, identifying persistent structures such as long-lived traps and recurrent semantic basins, with political content serving as a measurable case study.

We introduce the concept of weighted rules under the stable model semantics following the log-linear models of Markov Logic. This provides versatile methods to overcome the deterministic nature of the stable model semantics, such as resolving inconsistencies in answer set programs, ranking stable models, associating probability to stable models, and applying statistical inference to computing weighted stable models. We also present formal comparisons with related formalisms, such as answer set programs, Markov Logic, ProbLog, and P-log.

Flow Matching has recently emerged as a popular class of generative models for simulating a target distribution $μ_1$ from samples drawn from a source distribution $μ_0$. This framework relies on a fixed coupling between $μ_0$ and $μ_1$, and on a deterministic or stochastic bridge to define an interpolating process between the two distributions. The time marginals of this process can then be approximately sampled by estimating the transition rates, or more generally the generator, of its Markovian projection. This framework has recently been extended to the case of discrete source and target distributions, under the name Discrete Flow Matching (DFM). However, theoretical guarantees for such models remain scarce. In this paper, we study two DFM models on $\mathbb{Z}_m^d = \{0,\ldots,m-1\}^d$, sampled through time discretization, and derive non-asymptotic associated bounds for both of them. In contrast to previous work, we establish non-asymptotic bounds in Kullback--Leibler divergence for the early-stopped version of the target distribution. We also derive explicit convergence guarantees in total variation distance with respect to the true target distribution. Importantly, these bounds rely only on an approximation error assumption, relaxing standard score assumptions used in earlier works, while also yielding improved dependence on the vocabulary size $m$ and the dimension $d$.

Variable-order Markov models generate sequences over a finite alphabet by conditioning each symbol on the longest available suffix of the generated history. Regular constraints, by contrast, describe finite-horizon control requirements by an automaton: fixed positions, forced endings, metrical patterns, and forbidden copied fragments are all special cases. Existing exact methods already handle regular constraints with belief propagation for first-order Markov chains. The contribution here is the variable-order extension: identifying the state space on which the existing BP-regular machinery must be run when the generator is a variable-order/backoff model. A first-order constraint layer can enforce useful support conditions, but it computes future mass after merging histories that a variable-order generator deliberately keeps distinct. We formalize this mismatch and give the sparse construction obtained by replacing the first-order Markov state with the observed context state, then taking the standard product with the regular constraint automaton. For a fixed trained context graph and automaton, inference is linear in the sequence horizon; in general it is polynomial in the number of reachable product edges. This gives the correct variable-order distribution conditioned on regular constraints without expanding to all K-tuples. The same finite-source interface supports reversible data augmentation by inverse count lookup, matching materialized transposition augmentation without storing transformed corpora. We also separate exact BP inference from generation-time backoff policies, such as singleton avoidance, whose stochastic semantics must be made explicit if exactness is claimed.

We investigate interactive trajectory planning subject to uncertainty in the decisions of surrounding agents. To control the ego-agent, we aim to first learn the decision distribution and solve a Stochastic Model Predictive Control (SMPC) problem. To account for errors in the learned distribution, we show that it is possible to utilize Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) learning in combination with Distributionally Robust (DR) optimization to obtain a solution which accounts for the errors induced by the learning model. The results indicate that our PAC learning-based DR-MPC framework provides a method to interpolate between a robust MPC and an omnipotent SMPC, based on the available number of samples.

Online reinforcement learning (RL) relies on the Markov property for guaranteed performance, but real-world applications often lack well-defined states given raw observed variables. While causal RL has attracted growing interest, existing work typically assumes Markovian states are provided and focuses on using causality to accelerate learning, leaving a fundamental gap: \emph{given a longitudinal causal graph over observed variables, how does one construct MDP states that provably satisfy the Markov property?} We address this by providing a procedure that constructs a provably minimal state representation. In deep RL, we observe that the minimal representation alone empirically fails to improve performance, indicating that neural networks cannot directly exploit Markovian minimality. To address this, we propose \textbf{MOSE} (Multi-Order State Exposure), which feeds multi-order historical state constructions into the same $Q$-function. MOSE consistently outperforms both the minimal state construction and single-window policies on common benchmarks and synthetic datasets. Including the minimal representation alongside MOSE can further improve performance. Our results establish a core principle for causal deep RL: minimal sufficiency is not enough, and \emph{controlled redundancy} is necessary to unlock the benefit of causal state information.

Recent non-asymptotic analyses have substantially advanced the theory of distributional policy evaluation, but they largely concern synchronous full-state updates under a generative model, model-based estimators, accelerated variants, or different approximation architectures. Standard categorical temporal-difference learning is typically used in a different regime. It asynchronously performs a single-state update at each iteration and, in online settings, is driven by a Markovian trajectory. This leaves an important gap between existing finite-iteration theory and the categorical recursions most closely aligned with practical distributional temporal-difference implementations. We bridge this gap for two categorical policy-evaluation methods: scalar categorical temporal-difference learning in the Cramér geometry and multivariate signed-categorical temporal-difference learning in the maximum mean discrepancy geometry. After suitable isometric embeddings, both algorithms take the form of asynchronous single-state stochastic-approximation recursions that contract in a statewise supremum norm. This permits finite-iteration guarantees in discounted problems under both i.i.d. and Markovian state sampling, and in undiscounted fixed-horizon problems under i.i.d. episodic sampling.

In routine care, individuals identified a priori as high-risk are usually tested for conditions more frequently. Protected attributes, such as sex or ethnicity may also determine testing frequency. Such heterogeneous detection rates across a population induce label error. This causes systematic model error for specific groups and biases performance metrics during validation. This paper proposes a method to correct for such bias in prediction models due to differential diagnostic delay. We use a causal inference framework to define our target estimand: an individual's diagnosis probability in a counterfactual scenario where their diagnosis rate matches that of a reference group. We model the longitudinal process as a hidden Markov model, in which confirmatory test results are emissions from a latent progressive disease stage. We validate our approach in simulated data and apply it to a case study of chronic kidney disease prediction using electronic health records. In simulations, our method reduces prediction bias and improves calibration-in-the-large, correcting the Observed:Expected ratio in the underdiagnosed group from 1.34 (standard deviation: 0.09) in a model developed without any correction for underdiagnosis bias to 1.02 (0.09). Violations of assumptions in the simulation affected the estimation of model parameters, but the proposed approach nonetheless remained better calibrated than the standard model. In the clinical case study, we identify diabetes as the main driver of observability, with an odds ratio of 10.36 (95% confidence interval, 9.80 - 11.02) in 6-month urine albumin-creatinine ratio testing rate. Using our approach to predict the counterfactual diagnostic rate in patients without diabetes, we improved the Observed:Expected ratio of a developed clinical prediction model from 1.55 (1.51 - 1.59) to 1.01 (0.98 - 1.04).

Despite the growing availability of large datasets, causal structure learning remains computationally prohibitive at scale. We revisit sparsest-permutation learning for linear structural equation models and show that exact Cholesky factorization is unnecessary for structure recovery. This observation motivates a support-level relaxation that searches for sparse triangular factors over a precision-support screening graph. The relaxed formulation can be efficiently evaluated via masked zero-fill incomplete Cholesky factorization, enabling scalable comparison of candidate orderings. At the population level, we establish soundness for Markov equivalence class (MEC) recovery under no-cancellation and sparsest Markov representation assumptions, as well as robustness to ordering misspecification. Motivated by these guarantees, we introduce SCOPE, a sparse-Cholesky pipeline that provides a scalable implementation of the relaxed formulation. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that SCOPE matches the MEC recovery accuracy of substantially slower baselines, while achieving significantly reduced runtime and scaling to 10k variables.

Modeling the dynamics of non-stationary stochastic systems requires balancing the representational power of deep learning with the mathematical transparency of classical models. While classical Markov transition operators provide explicit, theoretically grounded rules for system evolution, their empirical estimation collapses due to severe data sparsity when applied to high-resolution, high-noise environments. We explore this statistical barrier using financial time series as a canonical, real-world testbed. To overcome the degeneracy of empirical counting, we introduce a framework that utilizes neural networks strictly as parameterization engines to generate explicit, time-varying Markov transition matrices. By constraining the neural network to output its predictions as a formal stochastic operator, we maintain complete structural interpretability. We demonstrate that these learned operators successfully capture complex regime shifts: the state-conditioned model achieves mean row heterogeneity $\barρ = 0.0073$ while the state-free ablation collapses to exactly zero, and operator row entropy correlates with realized variance at $r = -0.62$ ($p \approx 10^{-251}$), revealing that high-volatility regimes homogenize transition dynamics rather than diversify them. Furthermore, rather than enforcing the Chapman-Kolmogorov equations as a rigid structural requirement, we repurpose them as a localized diagnostic tool to pinpoint specific temporal windows where first-order memory assumptions break down. Ultimately, this framework demonstrates how neural networks can be constrained to make rigorous, classical operator analysis viable for complex real-world time series.

Continual incorporation of new knowledge is essential for the long-term evolution of large language models (LLMs). Existing approaches typically rely on parameter-update algorithms to mitigate catastrophic forgetting, yet they suffer from fundamental limitations: 1) forgetting is unavoidable as the amount of newly injected knowledge grows; and 2) model updates are often irreversible. As modern LLMs become increasingly expressive, it is natural to question whether large-scale weight updates are necessary for acquiring a small amount of new knowledge. In this work, we propose a principled framework that models autoregressive language generation as a Markov process over tokens, where model memory is represented by a Markov transition matrix. Under this formulation, incorporating new knowledge/tokens corresponds to extending the state space, and preserving existing transitions guarantees retention of previously learned knowledge. We then prove a sample complexity bound for incorporating new tokens via a token-to-dictionary mapping strategy. In particular, for learning the transition behavior of each new token, the required number of samples scales linearly with the number of existing tokens it is mapped to. To realize this mapping, we propose an embedding-tuning algorithm that requires minimal parameter updates and induces zero forgetting. Experimental results further demonstrate the effectiveness of our method and validate our theoretical findings.

Ancestral sequence reconstruction (ASR) aims to infer extinct protein sequences at internal nodes of a phylogenetic tree. Classical ASR methods are typically based on continuous-time Markov substitution models, but they treat sites largely independently and handle insertions and deletions only weakly or not at all. We introduce a tree-conditioned edit-flow model for variable-length ASR. Given two descendant sequences and their branch distances to a shared ancestor, the model reconstructs the ancestor through paired bidirectional edit trajectories constrained to agree on a common ancestral state. On a benchmark of experimentally evolved sequences with only context-independent substitutions, the model does not match the accuracy of the best classical method, yet still achieves reasonable performance despite being trained on natural sequences that include insertions, deletions, and substitutions. On a benchmark of natural homologous sequences with abundant insertions and deletions, the model most accurately localizes inferred evolutionary change.

The analysis of Temporal Difference (TD) learning in the average-reward setting faces notable theoretical difficulties because the Bellman operator is not contractive with respect to any norm. This complicates standard analyses of stochastic updates that are effective in discounted settings. Although a considerable body of literature addresses these challenges, existing theoretical approaches come with limitations. We introduce a novel algorithm designed explicitly for policy evaluation in the average-reward setting, utilizing sampling from two Markovian trajectories. Our proposed method overcomes previous limitations by guaranteeing convergence to the unique solution of a properly defined projected Bellman equation. Notably, and in contrast to earlier work, our convergence analysis is uniformly applicable to both linear function approximation and tabular settings and does not involve explicit dimension-dependent terms in its convergence bounds. These results align with what is known to hold in the discounted setting. Furthermore, our algorithm achieves improved dependence on the problem's condition number, reducing the sample complexity from quartic, as in prior literature, to quadratic scaling, and thus matching the efficiency seen in the discounted setting.

Offline goal-conditioned RL (GCRL) learns goal-reaching policies from static datasets, but real-world datasets are often partially observable and history-dependent, exhibiting a mix of Markovian and non-Markovian that violate standard RL assumptions. History-aware sequence models such as Decision Transformer (DT) are a natural fit for long-term dependency modeling, yet pure attention is inefficient and brittle when handling local Markovian structure and long-range context simultaneously. Although recent hybrid architectures (e.g., LSDT) introduce local extractors to improve local dependencies modeling, the fixed-window extraction cannot adapt its effective memory to varying dependency lengths in temporally heterogeneous settings, often truncating long-range context rather than compressing its content adaptively. Moreover, sequential offline GCRL faces a key bottleneck: under sparse rewards, return-to-go (RTG) becomes non-discriminative across sub-trajectories, providing little guidance signal for stitching goal-reaching behaviors from diverse demonstrations. To address these, we propose \textbf{QHyer}, which replaces RTG with a flow-parameterized, state-conditioned goal-reaching Q-estimator to support stitching across demonstrations, and introduces a gated Hybrid Attention-Mamba backbone that performs content-adaptive history compression while preserving local dynamics. Extensive experiments demonstrate that \textbf{QHyer} achieves state-of-the-art performance on both non-Markovian and Markovian datasets, validating its effectiveness for diverse scenarios.

Stabilized regression aims to identify a set of predictors whose conditional relationship with a response variable remains invariant across different environments. Existing graphical characterizations of the stable blanket are mainly developed for structural causal models (SCMs) without hidden variables or causal cycles. However, latent variables and feedback relationships naturally arise in many applications, and they can change both the Markov blanket and the set of predictors that remain stable under interventions. This paper studies stable blankets in graphical causal models with hidden variables, causal cycles, and both features simultaneously. For models with hidden variables, we use acyclic directed mixed graphs (ADMGs) and $m$-separation to characterize the Markov blanket and to construct intervention-stable predictor sets. We introduce the notion of an intervened sub-district and use it to describe how interventions may affect districts connected to the response. For models with cycles, we work with directed graphs (DGs) and directed mixed graphs (DMGs) together with $σ$-separation, treating strongly connected components (SCCs) as the basic graphical units. We then combine these ideas to analyze models with both hidden variables and cycles. The main results give graphical characterizations of Markov blankets, stable frontiers, and stable blankets in these generalized settings. In particular, we identify conditions under which the response is conditionally independent of intervention variables given a suitable predictor set, and we describe when such sets are minimal or unique. These results extend the graphical interpretation of stabilized regression beyond acyclic fully observed models.

Stochastic gradient methods are central to large-scale learning, yet their generalization theory typically relies on independent sampling assumptions. In many practical applications, data are generated by Markov chains and learning is performed in a decentralized manner, which introduces significant analytical challenges. In this work, we investigate the stability and generalization of decentralized stochastic gradient descent (SGD) and stochastic gradient descent ascent (SGDA) under Markov chain sampling. Leveraging a stability-based framework, we characterize how Markovian dependence and decentralized communication jointly influence generalization behavior. Our analysis captures the effects of network topology, Markov chain mixing properties, and primal-dual dynamics. We establish non-asymptotic generalization bounds for both algorithms, extending existing results on Markov stochastic gradient methods to decentralized and minimax settings.

Transformer-based models have achieved remarkable success across a wide range of domains, yet our understanding of their training dynamics remains limited. In this work, we identify a recurrent focus-dilution cycle in attention learning and provide a rigorous explanation in a one-layer Transformer setting for Markovian data via gradient-flow analysis. Using stage-wise linearization around critical points, we show that a single focus-dilution cycle can be decomposed into a sequence of distinct stages. First, embedding and projection rapidly condense to a rank-one structure, while attention parameters remain effectively frozen. Then, the attention parameters begin to increase, inducing a frequency-driven focus toward high-frequency tokens. As attention continues to evolve, it generates next-order perturbations in embeddings, leading to a mass-redistribution mechanism that progressively dilutes this focus. Finally, small asymmetries among low-frequency tokens lift a degenerate critical point, opening new embedding directions and initiating the next cycle. Experiments on synthetic Markovian data as well as WikiText and TinyStories corroborate the predicted stages and cyclical dynamics.

For a risk-averse finite-horizon Markov Decision Problem, we introduce a special class of Markov coherent risk measures, called mini-batch measures. We also define the class of multipattern risk-averse problems that generalizes the class of linear systems. We use both concepts in a feature-based $Q$-learning method with multipattern $Q$-factor approximation and we prove a high-probability regret bound of $\mathcal{O}\big(H^2 N^H \sqrt{ K}\big)$, where $H$ is the horizon, $N$ is the mini-batch size, and $K$ is the number of episodes. We also propose an economical version of the $Q$-learning method that streamlines the policy evaluation (backward) step. The theoretical results are illustrated on a stochastic assignment problem and a short-horizon multi-armed bandit problem.

This study investigates the structural organisation of Dante's Divina Commedia through a symbolic representation based on vowel-consonant (V/C) encoding. Modelling the resulting sequence as a four-state Markov chain yields a parsimonious index of graphemic memory, capturing local persistence and alternation patterns. Across the poem, this index shows a slight but consistent increase from the Inferno to the Paradiso, indicating a directional shift in local dependency structure. Trigram analysis identifies a restricted set of recurrent configurations acting as graphemic probes, linking Markov patterns to lexical environments and orthographic phenomena such as apostrophised forms. A complementary classification analysis identifies cantica-specific lexical anchors, showing that local symbolic dependencies reflect both the separation among the three cantiche and a continuous progression across the poem. The results provide an interpretable framework connecting local symbolic structure with higher-level textual organisation.

This study applies symbolic time series analysis and Markov modeling to explore the phonological structure of Evgenij Onegin-as captured through a graphemic vowel/consonant (V/C) encoding-and one contemporary Italian translation. Using a binary encoding inspired by Markov's original scheme, we construct minimalist probabilistic models that capture both local V/C dependencies and large-scale sequential patterns. A compact four-state Markov chain is shown to be descriptively accurate and generative, reproducing key features of the original sequences such as autocorrelation and memory depth. All findings are exploratory in nature and aim to highlight structural regularities while suggesting hypotheses about underlying narrative dynamics. The analysis reveals a marked asymmetry between the Russian and Italian texts: the original exhibits a gradual decline in memory depth, whereas the translation maintains a more uniform profile. To further investigate this divergence, we introduce phonological probes-short symbolic patterns that link surface structure to narrative-relevant cues. Tracked across the unfolding text, these probes reveal subtle connections between graphemic form and thematic development, particularly in the Russian original. By revisiting Markov's original proposal of applying symbolic analysis to a literary text and pairing it with contemporary tools from computational statistics and data science, this study shows that even minimalist Markov models can support exploratory analysis of complex poetic material. When complemented by a coarse layer of linguistic annotation, such models provide a general framework for comparative poetics and demonstrate that stylized structural patterns remain accessible through simple representations grounded in linguistic form.

Decision makers exploiting photonic chaotic dynamics obtained by semiconductor lasers provide an ultrafast approach to solving multi-armed bandit problems by using a temporal optical signal as the driving source for sequential decisions. In such systems, the sampling interval of the chaotic waveform shapes the temporal correlation of the resulting time series, and experiments have reported that decision accuracy depends strongly on this autocorrelation property. However, it remains unclear whether the benefit of autocorrelation can be explained by a minimal mathematical model. Here, we analyze a stochastic-process model for solving the two-armed bandit problem based on time series, where the threshold and a two-valued Markov signal evolve jointly. Numerical results reveal an environment-dependent structure: negative (positive) autocorrelation is optimal in reward-rich (reward-poor) environments. These findings show that negative autocorrelation of the time series is advantageous when the sum of the winning probabilities is more than one, whereas positive autocorrelation is useful when the sum of the winning probabilities is less than one. Moreover, the performance is independent of autocorrelation if the sum of the winning probabilities equals one, which is mathematically clarified. This study paves the way for solving the two-armed bandit problems for reinforcement learning applications in wireless communications and robotics.

This paper studies simple transformers trained on a high-order Markov chain, where the model must incorporate information from multiple past positions, each with different statistical importance. We show that transformers learn the task incrementally, with each stage corresponding to learning how to copy information from a subset of positions via a sparse attention pattern. Notably, the learning dynamics transition from a competitive phase, where all heads focus on the statistically most important positions, to a cooperative phase, where different heads specialize in different patterns. We model these dynamics with simplified differential equations and prove stage-wise convergence of the resulting system. Functionally, these stages correspond to a sequence of increasingly expressive misspecified models, with the full model class reached only at the end. Overall, we give a theoretical account of how structured attention patterns and head specialization emerge in stages without an explicit curriculum, with implications for generalization in sequential tasks.

Diffusion models over discrete spaces have recently shown striking empirical success, yet their theoretical foundations remain incomplete. In this paper, we study the sampling efficiency of score-based discrete diffusion models under a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) formulation, with a focus on $τ$-leaping-based samplers. We establish sharp convergence guarantees for attaining $\varepsilon$ accuracy in Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence for both uniform and masking noising processes. For uniform discrete diffusion, we show that the $τ$-leaping algorithm achieves an iteration complexity of order $\tilde O(d/\varepsilon)$, with $d$ the ambient dimension of the target distribution, eliminating linear dependence on the vocabulary size $S$ and improving existing bounds by a factor of $d$; moreover, we establish a matching algorithmic lower bound showing that linear dependence on the ambient dimension is unavoidable in general. For masking discrete diffusion, we introduce a modified $τ$-leaping sampler whose convergence rate is governed by an intrinsic information-theoretic quantity, termed the effective total correlation, which is bounded by $d \log S$ but can be sublinear or even constant for structured data. As a consequence, the sampler provably adapts to low-dimensional structure without prior knowledge or algorithmic modification, yielding sublinear convergence rates for various practical examples (such as hidden Markov models, image data, and random graphs). Our analysis requires no boundedness or smoothness assumptions on the score estimator beyond control of the score entropy loss.

An important question in the field of AI is the extent to which successful behaviour requires an internal representation of the world. In this work, we quantify the amount of information an optimal policy provides about the underlying environment. We consider a Controlled Markov Process (CMP) with $n$ states and $m$ actions, assuming a uniform prior over the space of possible transition dynamics. We prove that observing a deterministic policy that is optimal for any non-constant reward function then conveys exactly $n \log m$ bits of information about the environment. Specifically, we show that the mutual information between the environment and the optimal policy is $n \log m$ bits. This bound holds across a broad class of objectives, including finite-horizon, infinite-horizon discounted, and time-averaged reward maximization. These findings provide a precise information-theoretic lower bound on the ``implicit world model'' necessary for optimality.

Diffusion models provide an expressive framework for sampling from complex, unnormalized distributions. In this work, we extend Maximum Entropy Reinforcement Learning (ME-RL) to diffusion-based policies by introducing Diffusion-Augmented Markov Decision Processes (DA-MDPs). DA-MDPs interpret each reverse-diffusion transition as an individual reinforcement-learning decision, while only the final denoised action is executed in the environment. Our DA-MDPs follow from a principled derivation based on the variational-inference formulation of ME-RL. By augmenting policy and target trajectories with intermediate diffusion variables, we obtain a tractable reverse-KL upper bound via the data-processing inequality. This bound decomposes across denoising transitions, yielding diffusion-augmented variants of soft rewards, value functions, and local policy objectives. This provides a general framework for adapting ME-RL algorithms to diffusion policies while differentiating through only one diffusion transition at a time. We instantiate the framework with PPO, REPPO, and a maximum-entropy extension of WPO. Experiments demonstrate improved continuous-control performance, benefits from additional diffusion steps, and memory-efficient training. On the StackCube and PushT manipulation tasks, DA-MDP methods learn alternative successful strategies from the same initial state and achieve higher success rates and generally higher success-weighted mode entropy than the Gaussian ME-RL baseline. We also demonstrate successful training when using action chunking.

While transformer-based language models have driven the AI revolution thus far, their computational complexity has spurred growing interest in viable alternatives, such as structured state space sequence models (SSMs) and Selective SSMs. Among these, Mamba (S6) and its variant Mamba-2 have shown remarkable inference speed-ups over transformers while achieving comparable or superior performance on complex language modeling tasks. However, despite these architectural innovations and empirical successes, the fundamental learning capabilities of Mamba remain poorly understood. In this paper, we address this gap by studying in-context learning (ICL) on Markov chains and uncovering an interesting phenomenon: even a single-layer Mamba efficiently learns the in-context Laplacian smoothing estimator, which is both Bayes and minimax optimal. To explain this, we theoretically characterize the representation capacity of Mamba and reveal the fundamental role of convolution in enabling it to represent the optimal Laplacian smoothing. These theoretical insights align strongly with empirical results and, to the best of our knowledge, represent the first formal connection between Mamba and optimal statistical estimators. Finally, we outline promising research directions inspired by these findings.

Many learning algorithms can be represented as Markov processes, and understanding their generalization error is a central topic in learning theory. For specific continuous-time noisy algorithms, a prominent analysis technique relies on information-theoretic tools and the so-called ``entropy flow'' method. This technique is compatible with a broad range of assumptions and leverages the convergence properties of learning dynamics to produce meaningful generalization bounds, which can also be informative or extend to discrete-time settings. Despite their success, existing entropy flow formulations are limited to specific noise and algorithm structures (\eg, Langevin dynamics). In this work, we exploit new technical tools to extend its applicability to all learning algorithms whose iterative dynamics is governed by a time-homogeneous Markov process. Our approach builds on a principled continuous-time approximation of Markov algorithms and introduces a new, exact entropy flow formula for such processes. Within this unified framework, we establish novel connections to a well-studied family of modified logarithmic Sobolev inequalities, which we use to connect the generalization error to the ergodic properties of Markov processes. Finally, we provide a detailed analysis of all the terms appearing in our theory and demonstrate its effectiveness by deriving new generalization bounds for several concrete algorithms.

Neural operator (NO) architectures learn nonlinear maps between infinite-dimensional function spaces and are widely used to accelerate simulation and enable data-driven model discovery. While universality results ensure expressivity, they do not address \emph{complexity}: for broad operator classes described only through regularity (e.g.\ uniform continuity or $C^r$-regularity), information-theoretic lower bounds imply that minimax-optimal NO approximation rates scale \emph{exponentially} in the reciprocal accuracy $1/\varepsilon$. This has shifted the focus of NO theory toward identifying additional problem-specific structure, beyond regularity, under which suitably tailored NO architectures can leverage to unlock polynomial scaling in $1/\varepsilon$. We exhibit the first polynomial-scaling regime for NO approximations of solution operators in stochastic analysis; by identifying structured families of \emph{non-Markovian} BSDEs with randomized terminal condition parameterized by the Sobolev-regular terminal condition and by Sobolev-regular additive nonlinear perturbations of the generator. We prove that their solution operator can be approximated (uniformly over the family) by a tailored NO whose number of trainable parameters grows \emph{polynomially} in $1/\varepsilon$. We unlock this polynomial scaling regime by \emph{informing the NO's inductive bias} by factoring out the singular part of the associated semilinear elliptic PDE Green's function and by incorporating the Doléans--Dade exponential of the BSDE's common non-Markovian factor into the NO's decoding layers. As a byproduct, we extend polynomial-scaling guarantees from families of linear elliptic PDEs on regular domains to the semilinear setting.

We study the problem of restricting a Markov equivalence class of maximal ancestral graphs (MAGs) to only those MAGs that contain certain edge marks, which we refer to as expert or orientation knowledge. Such a restriction of the Markov equivalence class can be uniquely represented by a restricted essential ancestral graph. Our contributions are several-fold. First, we prove certain properties for the entire Markov equivalence class including a conjecture from Ali et al. (2009). Second, we present several new sound graphical orientation rules for adding orientation knowledge to an essential ancestral graph. We also show that some orientation rules of Zhang (2008b) are not needed for restricting the Markov equivalence class with orientation knowledge. Third, we provide an algorithm for including this orientation knowledge and show that in certain settings the output of our algorithm is a restricted essential ancestral graph. Finally, outside of the specified settings, we provide an algorithm for checking whether a graph is a restricted essential graph and discuss its runtime. This work can be seen as a generalization of Meek (1995) to settings which allow for latent confounding.

The probabilistic linguistic term has been proposed to deal with probability distributions in provided linguistic evaluations. However, because it has some fundamental defects, it is often difficult for decision-makers to get reasonable information of linguistic evaluations for group decision making. In addition, weight information plays a significant role in dynamic information fusion and decision making process. However, there are few research methods to determine the dynamic attribute weight with time. In this paper, I propose the concept of double fuzzy probability interval linguistic term set (DFPILTS). Firstly, fuzzy semantic integration, DFPILTS definition, its preference relationship, some basic algorithms and aggregation operators are defined. Then, a fuzzy linguistic Markov matrix with its network is developed. Then, a weight determination method based on distance measure and information entropy to reducing the inconsistency of DFPILPR and obtain collective priority vector based on group consensus is developed. Finally, an aggregation-based approach is developed, and an optimal investment case from a financial risk is used to illustrate the application of DFPILTS and decision method in multi-criteria decision making.

This paper develops on algebraic grounds a polynomial time exact linear solution to the hard combinatorial problem of marginal inference in Markov random field (MRF) models under general assumptions. To prove our claim, we first implicitly remodel a MRF joint distribution as the unique solution of some linear identity assuming its clique potential functions (equivalently, its individual conditional distributions) to be specified. Then, by assuming an arbitrary point subset, we relax accordingly such a (global) linear identity for deriving a second linear identity, solely, acting on a polynomial time number of entries (e.g.; local marginals or Fourier frequencies) of a solution. Then, we show, only using linear algebraic techniques, that such an identity enables to capture all the entries necessary for the exact reconstruction of an MRF marginal distribution, thus, allowing to solve for the latter, exactly and in polynomial time, using a standard linear solver. Last, but not least, this paper probably solves, once and for all, the P = NP conjecture.

We study Nash equilibrium learning in partially observable Markov games (POMGs), a multi-agent reinforcement learning framework in which agents cannot fully observe the underlying state. Prior work in this setting relies on centralization or information sharing, and suffers from sample and computational complexity that scales exponentially in the number of players. We focus on a subclass of POMGs with independent state transitions, where agents remain coupled through their rewards, and assume that the underlying fully observed Markov game is a Markov potential game. For this class, we present an independent learning algorithm in which players, observing only their own actions and observations and without communication, jointly converge to an approximate Nash equilibrium. Due to partial observability, optimal policies may in general depend on the full action-observation history. Under a filter stability assumption, we show that policies based on finite history windows provide sufficient approximation guarantees. This enables us to approximate the POMG by a surrogate Markov game that is near-potential, leading to quasi-polynomial sample and computational complexity for independent Nash equilibrium learning in the underlying POMG.