Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction

Predicting the interaction between pedestrian and vehicle is essential for autonomous driving safety in unstructured and semi-structured scenarios; however, this task is severely hindered by the scarcity of public datasets that feature dense pedestrian-vehicle interactions. Most current studies rely on structured road data, leaving the complex, heterogeneous interactions found in unstructured environments insufficiently represented and researched. In this paper, we propose a dataset annotation framework based on video data from uncalibrated surveillance cameras and present PINNS (Pedestrian-vehicle Interaction dataset from uNcalibrated cameras in uNstructured Scenes). The dataset covers multiple countries and regions, includes diverse typical traffic scenarios, and considers variations in seasons, lighting conditions, and weather. It focuses on complex scenes with dense pedestrian-vehicle interactions and is designed to be easily extensible. The dataset is constructed and annotated according to the standard issued by the Chinese Association of Automation, providing both trajectory data and corresponding scene-level information. Furthermore, this paper analyzes current challenges and research directions in heterogeneous agent trajectory prediction, shows the necessity and usefulness of the proposed dataset. We hope our framework and dataset will facilitate research on trajectory prediction and autonomous driving in complex mixed traffic scenarios. PINNS is publicly available at https://github.com/Songan-Lab.

Trajectory prediction methods have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in capturing complex motion patterns. However, existing methods rely on global state assumptions, suffer from insufficient belief inference under partial observability, and lack cognitive behavioral constraints in prediction. These limitations severely compromise both deployment feasibility and physical plausibility in real-world settings. In this work, we propose FEP-Diff, an agent-centric trajectory prediction framework grounded in the Free Energy Principle, aimed at achieving cognitively plausible predictions under realistic constraints. Specifically, a dual-branch spatiotemporal encoder extracts ego-motion dynamics and social interaction cues from local observations. Building upon this, a goal-conditioned belief learner infers multimodal latent belief distributions optimized via a free-energy objective, with a social consistency constraint on the local neighborhood graph to promote cognitive alignment among neighboring agents. Finally, a residual diffusion trajectory generator is conditioned on the learned belief representations with token-level proxy conditioning, producing precise and diverse future predictions. Extensive experiments on five public benchmarks demonstrate that FEP-Diff consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods under restricted observability. Code: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/FEP-Diff-8876.

Deepgenerative models havebecomeapromisingapproach for human motion prediction due to their ability to capture multimodal distributions and represent diverse human be haviors. However, generating predictions that are both di verse and jointly consistent among interacting agents re mains challenging. In addition, most existing approaches are primarily evaluated using single-agent (marginal) met rics, which fail to fully reflect the joint dynamics of multi agent interactions. We propose a diffusion-based frame work that improves multi-agent motion prediction by lever aging rich contextual information from historical trajecto ries. This information is incorporated through a guidance mechanism to enhance the diversity and expressiveness of predicted motions. To further enforce interaction consis tency, we introduce an energy-based formulation that re fines the joint trajectory distribution while preserving the plausibility of individual trajectories. Extensive experi ments on four benchmark datasets demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms existing methods. No tably, our approach substantially improves both marginal (ADE/FDE) and joint (JADE/JFDE) metrics on ETH/UCY over strong marginal baselines. Compared with prior joint prediction methods, it delivers significant gains in marginal metrics while maintaining competitive joint performance.

Accurate pedestrian trajectory prediction is crucial for autonomous systems operating in complex environments, such as modular buses and delivery robots in suburban or semi-structured areas. Social Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Neural Networks (Social-STGCNN) have shown strong performance by modeling social interactions; however, producing diverse and well-calibrated future trajectories remains challenging. In this work, we build on a Social-STGCNN backbone and introduce a Conditional Variational Autoencoder (CVAE)-based probabilistic formulation to explicitly model multimodal future trajectories. We evaluate the method on the ETH and UCY pedestrian trajectory datasets as well as on a real-world pedestrian dataset collected by a mobile robot. Results show moderate gains on public benchmarks, but more consistent endpoint accuracy and improved trajectory diversity across different crowd configurations. Evaluation on robot-collected data further demonstrates the approach's effectiveness beyond curated benchmarks and supports its applicability in practical deployments.

Human trajectory forecasting is crucial for safe navigation in crowded environments, requiring models that balance accuracy with computational efficiency. Efficiently modeling social interactions is key to performance in dense crowds. Yet, most recent methods rely on attention mechanisms, which are effective at capturing complex dependencies, but incur quadratic computational costs that scale poorly with the growing number of neighbors. Recently, Selective State-Space Models have provided a linear-time alternative; however, their inherently sequential design is misaligned with the unstructured and dynamic nature of social interactions. To address this challenge, we propose Social-Mamba, a forecasting architecture that reformulates social interactions as structured sequential processes. At its core is the Cycle Mamba block, a novel module that enables continuous bidirectional information flow. Social-Mamba organizes agents on an egocentric grid and introduces social triplet factorization, which decomposes interactions into temporal, egocentric, and goal-centric scans. These are dynamically integrated through a learnable social gate and global scan to generate accurate and efficient trajectory predictions. Extensive experiments on five trajectory forecasting benchmarks show that Social-Mamba achieves state-of-the-art accuracy while offering superior parameter efficiency and computational scalability. Furthermore, embedding Social-Mamba into a flow-matching framework further enhances both accuracy and efficiency, establishing it as a flexible and robust foundation for future trajectory forecasting research. The code is publicly available: https://github.com/vita-epfl/Social-Mamba

Forecasting within signal processing pipelines is crucial for mitigating delays, particularly in predicting the dynamic movements of objects such as NBA players. This task poses significant challenges due to the inherently interactive and unpredictable nature of sports, where abrupt changes in velocity and direction are prevalent. Traditional approaches, including (S)ARIMA(X), Kalman filters (KF), and Particle filters (PF), often struggle to model the non-linear dynamics present in such scenarios. Machine learning (ML) methods, such as long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, graph neural networks (GNNs), and Transformers, offer greater flexibility and accuracy but frequently fail to explicitly capture the interplay between temporal dependencies and contextual interactions, which are critical in chaotic sports environments. In this paper, we evaluate these models and assess their strengths and weaknesses. Experimental results reveal key performance trade-offs across input history length, generalizability, and the ability to incorporate contextual information. ML-based methods demonstrated substantial improvements over linear models across forecast horizons of up to 2s. Among the tested architectures, our hybrid LSTM augmented with contextual information achieved the lowest final displacement error (FDE) of 1.51m, outperforming temporal convolutional neural network (TCNN), graph attention network (GAT), and Transformers, while also requiring less data and training time compared to GAT and Transformers. Our findings indicate that no single architecture excels across all metrics, emphasizing the need for task-specific considerations in trajectory prediction for fast-paced, dynamic environments such as NBA gameplay.

End-to-end autonomous driving, which bypasses traditional modular pipelines by directly predicting future trajectories from sensor inputs, has recently achieved substantial progress. However, existing methods often overlook the causal inter-dependencies in ego-vehicle planning, ignoring the reciprocal relations between the ego vehicle and surrounding agents. This causal oversight leads to inconsistent and unreliable trajectory predictions, especially in interaction-critical scenarios where ego decisions and neighboring agent behaviors must be reasoned about jointly. To address this limitation, we propose CaAD, a Causality-aware end-to-end Autonomous Driving framework that captures these dependencies within a shared latent scene representation. First, we propose an ego-centric joint-causal modeling module that builds on the marginal prediction branch, and learns causal dependencies between the ego vehicle and interaction-relevant agents. Second, we employ a causality-aware policy alignment stage implemented with joint-mode embeddings to align the stochastic ego policy with planning-oriented closed-loop feedback computed from surrounding traffic and map context. On the Bench2Drive and NAVSIM benchmarks, CaAD demonstrates strong closed-loop planning performance, achieving a Driving Score of 87.53 and Success Rate of 71.81 on Bench2Drive, and a PDMS of 91.1 on NAVSIM. The project page is available at https://moonseokha.github.io/CaAD/.

Learning and representing the subjectivities of agents has become a challenging but crucial problem in the trajectory prediction task. Such subjectivities not only present specific spatial or temporal structures, but also are anisotropic for all interaction participants. Despite great efforts, it remains difficult to explicitly learn and forecast these subjectivities, let alone further modulate models' predictions through a specific ego's subjectivity. Inspired by prefactual thoughts in psychology and relevant theatrical concepts, we interpret such subjectivities in future trajectories as the continuous process from rehearsal to encore. In the rehearsal phase, the proposed ego predictor focuses on how each ego agent learns to derive and direct a set of explicitly biased rehearsal trajectories for all participants in the scene from the short-term observations. Then, these rehearsal trajectories serve as immediate controls to condition final predictions, providing direct yet distinct ego biases for the prediction network to simulate agents' various subjectivities. Experiments across datasets not only demonstrate a consistent improvement in the performance of the proposed \emph{Encore} trajectory prediction model but also provide clear interpretability regarding subjectivities as biased ego rehearsals.

Stochastic Human Trajectory Prediction (HTP) using generative modeling has emerged as a significant area of research. Although state-of-the-art models excel in optimizing the accuracy of individual agents, they often struggle to generate predictions that are collectively compliant, leading to output trajectories marred by social collisions and environmental violations, thus rendering them impractical for real-world applications. To bridge this gap, we present JACoP: Joint Alignment for Compliant Multi-Agent Prediction, an innovative multi-stage framework that ensures scene-level plausibility. JACoP incorporates an Anchor-Based Agent-Centric Profiler for effective initial compliance filtering and employs a Markov Random Field (MRF) based aligner to formalize the joint selection for scene predictions. By representing inter-agent spatial and social costs as MRF energy potentials, we successfully infer and sample from the joint trajectory distribution, achieving prediction with optimal scene compliance. Comprehensive experiments show that JACoP not only achieves competitive accuracy, but also sets a new standard in reducing both environmental violations and social collisions, thereby confirming its ability to produce collectively feasible and practically applicable trajectory predictions.

Multi-agent trajectory modeling traditionally focuses on forecasting, often neglecting more general tasks like trajectory completion, which is essential for real-world applications such as correcting tracking data. Existing methods also generally predict agents' states without offering any state-wise measure of heteroscedastic uncertainty. Moreover, popular multi-modal sampling methods lack error probability estimates for each generated scene under the same prior observations, which makes it difficult to rank the predictions at inference time. We introduce U2Diffine, a unified diffusion model built to perform trajectory completion while simultaneously offering state-wise heteroscedastic uncertainty estimates. This is achieved by augmenting the standard denoising loss with the negative log-likelihood of the predicted noise, and then propagating the latent space uncertainty to the real state space using a first-order Taylor approximation. We also propose U2Diff, a faster baseline that avoids gradient computation during sampling. This approach significantly increases inference speed, making it as efficient as a standard generative-only diffusion model. For post-processing, we integrate a Rank Neural Network (RankNN) that enables error probability estimation for each generated mode, demonstrating strong correlation with ground truth errors. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art solutions in both trajectory completion and forecasting across four challenging sports datasets (NBA, Basketball-U, Football-U, Soccer-U), underscoring the effectiveness of our uncertainty and error probability estimation.

Diffusion models for multi-agent trajectory prediction are limited by iterative denoising, which causes inference latency that hinders their use in time-critical settings like autonomous driving. Fast-sampling variants using DDIM and informed initial noise distributions partially alleviate this issue, but they either fail to achieve true single-step generation or are constrained by the chosen noise distribution. Consistency Models (CMs) offer high-quality one-step generation by mapping noise directly to data, but are difficult to train from scratch. We propose ECTraj, an enhanced CM pipeline with improved training and conditional generation for trajectory prediction. Our framework extends the student-teacher consistency training scheme: the student produces standard outputs, while the teacher explicitly fuses its predictions with parts of the ground truth to give stronger supervision. We also exploit CMs' direct denoising for top-K multi-shot generation during training. Combining conditional generation with this enhanced consistency objective yields faster inference and improved prediction accuracy, establishing competitive new benchmarks on the large-scale Argoverse 2 dataset.

Motion forecasting often requires trading interpretability for predictive accuracy. Standard anchor-based architectures rely on opaque latent queries that are highly prone to latent collapse, or naive trajectory sampling that limits multi-modal diversity. We propose an end-to-end differentiable framework that grounds predictions in a comprehensive "motion bank", a structured embedding space of physically realizable trajectories constructed via contrastive learning. Rather than regressing paths from a blank slate, our architecture dynamically retrieves explicit motion priors using a novel Anchor Retrieval Layer. This module adapts orthogonally initialized queries via a Dual-Level Gated Cross-Attention mechanism and executes discrete trajectory selection using a Straight-Through Gumbel-Softmax estimator to preserve continuous gradient flow. The retrieved semantically grounded anchors are then geometrically refined by a DETR-style decoder, optimized jointly with a Winner-Takes-All (WTA) kinematic Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), a latent diversity penalty, and a soft-min weighted endpoint loss. By strictly conditioning the decoding phase on diverse, interpretable motion primitives, our approach eliminates the "black box" of standard latent queries while achieving competitive multi-modal accuracy on the Argoverse 2 and Waymo Open Motion datasets. Code is available at: https://github.com/abviv/recall2predict

Generative motion prediction must satisfy three simultaneous requirements for real-world autonomy: high accuracy, diverse multimodal futures, and strictly bounded latency. Diffusion models meet the first two but violate the third, requiring tens to hundreds of denoising steps. We identify a conditioning strategy that resolves this tension: \textit{single-step integration is accurate when the underlying transport problem is local}. A model that must both discover the correct behavioral mode and traverse a long displacement in one step accumulates large discretization errors; conditioning the base distribution to lie near plausible futures reduces the problem to short-range refinement, the regime where a single Euler step suffices. We instantiate this \emph{local transport conditioning} in FlowS, a conditional flow matching framework with two mechanisms. First, an online, scene-conditioned learned prior emits $K$ calibrated anchor trajectories per agent, each already near a plausible future, converting mode discovery into local correction. Second, a step-consistent displacement field enforces semigroup self-consistency, guaranteeing that a single step inherits multi-step accuracy. Crucially, anchoring this field at learned priors along straight-line paths yields a {stable, low-variance} training target, unlike prior self-consistency methods that suffer from {high-variance bootstrap} signals on curved diffusion paths. On the Waymo Open Motion Dataset, FlowS achieves state-of-the-art Soft mAP {(0.4804) and mAP (0.4703) with ensemble at 75,FPS} with single-step inference, demonstrating that local transport conditioning makes one-step generative motion prediction practical for safety-critical autonomy. Code and pretrained models will be released upon acceptance.

Accurate trajectory prediction is fundamentally challenging due to high scene heterogeneity - the severe variance in motion velocity, spatial density, and interaction patterns across different real-world environments. However, most existing approaches typically train a single unified model, expecting a fixed-capacity architecture to generalize universally across all possible scenarios. This conventional model-centric paradigm is fundamentally flawed when confronting such extreme heterogeneity, inevitably leading to a severe generalization gap, degraded accuracy, and massive computational waste. To overcome this bottleneck, rather than refining restricted model-centric architectures, we propose selective learning, a novel scene-centric paradigm. It explicitly analyzes the characteristics of the underlying scene to dynamically route inputs to the most appropriate expert models. As a concrete implementation of this paradigm, we introduce SceneSelect. Specifically, SceneSelect utilizes unsupervised clustering on interpretable geometric and kinematic features to discover a latent scene taxonomy. A highly decoupled classification module is then trained to assign real-time inputs to these scene categories, and a highly extensible, plug-and-play scheduling policy automatically dispatches the trajectory sequence to the optimal expert predictor. Crucially, this decoupled design ensures excellent generalization capabilities, allowing seamless integration with different off-the-shelf models and robust adaptation across new datasets without requiring computationally expensive joint retraining. Extensive experiments on three public benchmarks (ETH-UCY, SDD, and NBA) demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms strong single-model and ensemble baselines, achieving an average improvement of 10.5%, showcasing the effectiveness of scene-aware selective learning.

Predicting future trajectories of surrounding traffic agents is critical for safe autonomous navigation and collision avoidance. Despite all advances in the trajectory forecasting realm, the prediction models remains vulnerable to uncertainty caused by occlusions, limited sensing range, and perception errors. Collaborative vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) approaches help reduce this uncertainty by sharing complementary information. Existing collaborative trajectory prediction methods typically fuse feature maps at the perception stage to construct a holistic scene view. Further this holistic representation is decoded into the future trajectories. Such design incurs substantial communication overhead due to the exchange of high-dimensional feature representations and often assumes idealized bandwidth and synchronization, limiting practical deployment. We address these limitations by shifting collaboration from perception to the prediction module and introducing a late-fusion framework for shared forecasts. The framework is model-agnostic and treats collaborating vehicles as independent asynchronous agents. We evaluate the approach on the OPV2V, V2V4Real, and DeepAccident datasets, comparing individual and collaborative forecasting. Across all datasets, late fusion consistently reduces miss rate and improves trajectory success rate ($\mathrm{TSR}_{0.5}$), defined as the fraction of ground-truth agents with final displacement error below 0.5 m. On the real-world V2V4Real dataset, collaborative prediction improves the success rate by $1.69\%$ and $1.22\%$ for both intelligent vehicles, respectively, compared with individual forecasting.

Large language models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated strong reasoning capabilities and attracted increasing research attention in the field of autonomous driving (AD). However, safe application of LLMs on AD perception and prediction still requires a thorough understanding of both the dynamic traffic agents and the static road infrastructure. To this end, this study introduces a framework to evaluate the capability of LLMs in understanding the behaviors of dynamic traffic agents and the topology of road networks. The framework leverages frozen LLMs as the reasoning engine, employing a traffic encoder to extract spatial-level scene features from observed trajectories of agents, while a lightweight Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) encodes the local high-definition (HD) maps. To assess the intrinsic reasoning ability of LLMs, the extracted scene features are then transformed into LLM-compatible tokens via a reprogramming adapter. By residing the prediction burden with the LLMs, a simpler linear decoder is applied to output future trajectories. The framework enables a quantitative analysis of the influence of multi-modal information, especially the impact of map semantics on trajectory prediction accuracy, and allows seamless integration of frozen LLMs with minimal adaptation, thereby demonstrating strong generalizability across diverse LLM architectures and providing a unified platform for model evaluation.

Human behavior has the nature of mutual dependencies, which requires human-robot interactive systems to predict surrounding agents trajectories by modeling complex social interactions, avoiding collisions and executing safe path planning. While there exist many trajectory prediction methods, most of them do not incorporate the own motion of the ego agent and only model interactions based on static information. We are inspired by the humans theory of mind during trajectory selection and propose a Cross time domain intention-interactive method for conditional Trajectory prediction(CiT). Our proposed CiT conducts joint analysis of behavior intentions over time, and achieves information complementarity and integration across different time domains. The intention in its own time domain can be corrected by the social interaction information from the other time domain to obtain a more precise intention representation. In addition, CiT is designed to closely integrate with robotic motion planning and control modules, capable of generating a set of optional trajectory prediction results for all surrounding agents based on potential motions of the ego agent. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed CiT significantly outperforms the existing methods, achieving state-of-the-art performance in the benchmarks.

Vehicle trajectory prediction is central to highway perception, but deployment on roadside edge devices necessitates bounded, deterministic end-to-end latency. We present EdgeVTP, an embedded-first trajectory predictor that combines interaction-aware graph modeling with a lightweight transformer backbone and a one-shot curve decoder. By predicting future motion as compact curve parameters (anchored at the last observed position) rather than horizon-scaled autoregressive waypoints, EdgeVTP reduces decoding overhead while producing smooth trajectories. To keep runtime predictable in crowded scenes, we explicitly bound interaction complexity via a locality graph with a hard neighbor cap. Across three highway benchmarks and two Jetson-class platforms, EdgeVTP achieves the lowest measured end-to-end latency under a protocol that includes graph construction and post-processing, while attaining state-of-the-art (SotA) prediction accuracy on two of the three datasets and competitive error on other benchmarks. Our code is available at https://github.com/SeungjinStevenKim/EdgeVTP.

Trajectory prediction is a key component of autonomous driving systems because future motions directly affect collision checking, behavior planning, and control. The task remains challenging under dense interactions, heterogeneous behaviors, multimodal futures, and limited on-board computation. Existing graph, attention, and generative predictors improve interaction reasoning or uncertainty modeling, but their high-capacity designs are often costly for real-time deployment. Lightweight predictors and conventional distillation reduce inference cost, yet usually rely on static imitation and do not explicitly correct safety-relevant teacher bias. This paper proposes \textbf{MAVEN-T}, a reinforced heterogeneous distillation framework for real-time multi-agent trajectory prediction. A high-capacity teacher models directed local interactions with a surround-aware graph encoder, combines efficient temporal filtering with shifted-window spatial attention, and decodes maneuver-specific futures through a sparse Mixture-of-Experts head. A compact GRU--Squeeze-and-Excitation student with a Low-Rank Adapted policy head is trained by feature-, attention-, and semantic-level distillation. To align prediction with downstream behavior, the student is further refined by Proximal Policy Optimization rewards for collision avoidance, comfort, and progress, while a complexity-aware curriculum and Elastic Weight Consolidation stabilize stage-wise training. Experiments on NGSIM, HighD, MoCAD, Argoverse~2, and the Waymo Open Motion Dataset evaluate accuracy, efficiency, generalization, robustness, and closed-loop safety. The student achieves 6.2$\times$ parameter compression, 3.7$\times$ inference acceleration, and 14.6,ms latency on an NVIDIA Jetson AGX Orin while maintaining competitive accuracy.

Bridging the past to the future, connecting agents both spatially and temporally, lies at the core of the trajectory prediction task. Despite great efforts, it remains challenging to explicitly learn and predict latencies, i.e., response intervals or temporal delays with which agents respond to various trajectory-changing events and adjust their future paths, whether on their own or interactively. Different agents may exhibit distinct latency preferences for noticing, processing, and reacting to a specific trajectory-changing event. The lack of consideration of such latencies may undermine the temporal continuity of forecasting systems, leading to implausible or unintended trajectories. Inspired by reverberation in acoustics, we propose a new reverberation transform and the corresponding Reverberation (Rev for short) trajectory prediction model, which predicts both individual latency preferences and their stochastic variations accordingly, by using two explicit and learnable reverberation kernels, enabling latency-conditioned and controllable trajectory prediction under both non-interactive and social latencies. Experiments on multiple datasets, whether of pedestrians or vehicles, demonstrate that Rev achieves competitive accuracy while revealing interpretable latency dynamics across agents and scenarios. Qualitative analyses further verify the properties of the reverberation transform, highlighting its potential as a general latency modeling approach.

Multi-agent traffic simulation seeks diverse, coordinated, and physically realistic futures from maps and observed history. Long-horizon closed-loop generation must reconcile multiple decision time scales while its context evolves with generated states. Existing methods often unfold long futures from an initial scene and resolve intent, interaction, and motion monolithically, weakening cross-scale consistency and adaptation. Multimodal rollout poses a further consistency problem: independently reselecting modes across agents or commits can stitch together incompatible futures instead of preserving a coherent joint branch. We present Hi-FLoop, a branch-consistent multi-timescale state-feedback framework. Eight scene-level Worlds represent joint hypotheses; all agents share one selected World identity throughout all 16 commits of an 8-second rollout, while Goal, Preview, and Control states adapt within that branch. An 8-second Goal anchors intent, a 2-second Preview coordinates interactions, and 1-second Control produces physical motion. Every 0.5-second commit feeds back only its executed prefix as new facts, while unexecuted hypotheses never enter factual memory. Joint Preview Interaction induces a sparse directed future graph and uses conflict probabilities and signed arrival-time differences to refine interaction-aware motion. For generated-state recovery, a prefix-frozen A-to-B cascade transfers typed physical state and the branch index--but no latent state--from a frozen prefix model to an independently parameterized recovery model. On the full H-D public-validation split of 955 scenarios, the S2.1 cascade obtains an 8-second scene-joint ADE-at-joint-minFDE@8/joint-minFDE@8 of 2.048/6.384 m when one World must explain all evaluated agents. Agent-centric oracle-minADE@8 is 0.526 m at 6 seconds and 0.875 m at 8 seconds.