Overview

Predictive maintenance studies how to use sensor readings, operating conditions, and maintenance records to detect faults, track equipment health, and estimate remaining useful life before failure. Common approaches include signal processing and statistical models, machine-learning classifiers, recurrent and Transformer-based sequence models, and physics-informed or survival models; newer work also explores self-supervision, foundation models, and federated learning when labels or shared data are limited. These forecasts can feed maintenance scheduling, risk assessment, and digital-twin or edge-monitoring systems, where uncertainty and decision costs matter alongside predictive accuracy. A central challenge is whether models and benchmarks remain reliable across machines, sites, failure modes, and noisy operating conditions, especially when data are scarce and evaluation protocols can hide leakage or poor calibration.

Latest papers

120 papers9 papers in the last four weeks, down 25% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

Aug 8, 2026

Failure-Mechanism Transferability of Cumulative-Damage Features for Health State Estimation of SiC Power Modules

Data-driven health-state estimators for SiC (Silica-Carbide) power modules typically report their performance on a single accelerated-aging campaign, and how that performance transfers to a different failure mechanism is rarely tested. We benchmark five reference methods from the prognostics and condition-monitoring literature against a physics-informed NODE (Neural Ordinary Differential Equation) on two SiC power-cycling campaigns driven by structurally different failure mechanisms, solder-layer fatigue and wire-bond lift-off, under a per-module kk-fold protocol. The NODE is evaluated under two input regimes that share the rest of the pipeline: the baseline electrical precursors and a set of cumulative thermoelectric features. Every reference method degrades on the wire-bond campaign, with average errors growing and precision decreasing with respect to their performance on the soldered campaign. The NODE fed with the cumulative features keeps its soldered-campaign metrics on both mechanisms, with differences inside the fold-to-fold variance, while the same architecture fed with the baseline precursors falls back to the reference-method cluster. The input representation contributes at least as much as the architecture to failure-mechanism transferability of a health-state estimator.
Aug 8, 2026

Physics-Informed Condition Monitoring of SiC Power Modules

Silicon carbide (SiC) power modules are increasingly deployed in automotive traction inverters, where condition monitoring is essential to prevent in-service failures. Despite extensive qualification under AQG 324, no consolidated approach exists for in-field health state estimation: physics-of-failure lifetime models lack real-time applicability, purely data-driven architectures require large labeled datasets and generalize poorly, and physics-informed frameworks remain too demanding for embedded deployment. We address SiC MOSFET modules assembled with sintered packaging, which suppresses solder degradation and produces aging behavior distinct from previously studied devices. Instead of the smooth quasi-exponential drift of solder-based modules, the forward voltage drop VDSV_{DS} exhibits multi-regime profiles, with wirebond liftoff events introducing abrupt, non-monotonic perturbations. We propose a condition monitoring framework combining three elements. First, physics-informed features replace raw sensor signals with cumulative damage indicators derived from junction temperature swing, mean junction temperature and a Miner rule accumulator, encoding degradation history in an interpretable form. Second, a monotonicity constraint enforced by gradient penalty regularization embeds the expected degradation direction as a physics-guided prior. Third, a heavy-tailed output distribution replaces the point estimate, giving calibrated uncertainty robust to the out-of-distribution variance introduced by liftoff. On an industrial power cycling dataset from Infineon Technologies, several neural architectures are compared under a strict cross-validation protocol. The full configuration reduces mean absolute error by approximately 70% over purely data-driven baselines and stays stable across all folds, while remaining lightweight enough for embedded deployment.
Aug 7, 2026

PHOENIX: Fine-Tuned SLM-Powered Autonomous Satellite Lifetime Extension via Predictive Self-Healing and Multi-Agent AI Recovery

Most CubeSats, small and low-cost satellites roughly the size of a shoebox, do not survive as long as they were designed to: a study of 178 missions found that only 48-65% remain operational after two years, against a designed lifetime of 2-5 years. The deeper issue is that a CubeSat in low Earth orbit (LEO) is physically unreachable from the ground for roughly 85 minutes out of every 96-minute orbit, so faults that start during that window go unnoticed until the next contact pass, by which point recovery may no longer be possible. We propose PHOENIX (Predictive Health On-orbit Edge Neural Intelligence eXtension) to give the satellite its own fault reasoning capability. A fine-tuned Small Language Model (SLM) compact enough to run on embedded hardware is deployed onboard the CubeSat, running on the flight-proven Aethero NxN-ECM computer, monitoring all sensor readings continuously, and resolving recurring faults using a memory system that stores past repairs so the same inference does not need to run twice. Once per orbit it sends a short structured health report to the ground instead of a raw data dump; six specialized AI agents on the ground read that report and generate validated satellite commands within the 5-10 minute contact window. A generative diffusion model (DDPM) creates synthetic training data because real fault examples make up only 0.57-1.80% of the dataset. We report preliminary results on the ESA Anomaly Detection Benchmark (14 years, 76 channels, 118 labeled faults).
Aug 7, 2026

A Transferable Autologistic Model for Predicting Rare Failures in Heterogeneous Equipment

Predicting failures before they occur remains a major challenge in predictive maintenance, particularly when failures are rare, when equipment of the same family differ in sensor configurations, and when the goal is anticipation rather than diagnosis of an already observed fault. This paper proposes a common-to-target probabilistic model that learns shared failure-related patterns across a family of heterogeneous equipment and adapts parsimoniously to target equipment. The model explicitly accounts for sensor heterogeneity, operating context, and degradation dynamics to produce calibrated failureprobability estimates suitable for maintenance planning. Its performance is evaluated on a synthetic refrigerator dataset comprising 27 simulated refrigerators with varying sensor configurations, operating conditions, and failure types, providing a controlle
Aug 5, 2026

A System for Train Condition Monitoring and Structural Health Assessment of Rail Vehicles

The ongoing digitalization of rail systems and the increasing use of artificial intelligence (AI) are fundamentally transforming the design, operation, and maintenance of rail vehicles. While fully automated operation at Grade of Automation 4 (GoA4) is well established in metro systems, its deployment in mainline rail remains limited. This is primarily due to stringent safety requirements and the complexity of open operational environments. Current perception systems based on cameras, radar, and lidar are effective in detecting objects but provide limited capability for reliably identifying impacts, collisions, and driving-over events. This paper presents a novel approach for real-time vehicle condition monitoring and impact detection that integrates structural sensor technologies with AI-based data analysis. The proposed framework addresses three key applications: (1) automated detection of impacts, structural damage, and driving-over events, (2) condition-based maintenance enabled by continuous monitoring, and (3) long-term data analytics to support vehicle design optimization. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and highlight its potential to enhance operational safety, enable predictive maintenance strategies, and support the transition toward fully automated operation in mainline rail systems
Aug 5, 2026

Predictive Failure Detection in Network Hardware Using Thermal Imaging and Deep Learning with Sensor Fusion

Unplanned network hardware malfunctions can interrupt services and result in expensive downtime in data centers. A deep learning-based predictive maintenance strategy is presented that utilizes thermal imaging and power sensor data to detect early indicators of equipment breakdown in routers, switches, and servers. A simulated dataset was generated comprising annotated thermal pictures and power readings indicative of three operating states: Normal, Warning, and Critical. Three ImageNet-pretrained convolutional neural network (CNN) models ResNet-50, InceptionV3, and VGG16 were assessed together with a multi-modal CNN-LSTM fusion model that integrates visual and sensor time-series information. Experiments were performed with and without pre-processing procedures, including region-of-interest (ROI) extraction and normalization. In the absence of pre-processing, CNNs attained moderate accuracy (e.g., ResNet-50 at 52%), but ROI-based pre-processing significantly enhanced performance (ResNet-50 accuracy reaching 91%). The CNN-LSTM model attained the greatest accuracy of 94%, with precision and recall approaching 95%, illustrating the effectiveness of multi-modal fusion. The results validate that domain-specific pre-processing and sensor fusion substantially improve early failure prediction, providing a potential foundation for proactive maintenance of network hardware through non-intrusive monitoring.
Aug 3, 2026

Predictive Maintenance: Deep Learning-Based Remaining Useful Life Prediction for Combat Aircraft Engines

To improve the operational readiness of combat aircraft engines and reduce unplanned maintenance costs, accurately estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) is critical. Traditional maintenance often proves insufficient under dynamic mission profiles. In this study, a deep learning-based predictive maintenance model capable of autonomously extracting features from multivariate sensor data was developed. Using the NASA C-MAPSS FD001 and FD004 datasets, data were converted into sequential blocks via 50- and 30-step sliding windows, respectively. The model's architectural superiority in autonomously extracting temporal degradation features was validated against RF, CNN-LSTM, and BiLSTM baselines. On FD001, it achieved an R-squared (R2) of 0.8901, a 13.28 RMSE, and a 320.34 NASA risk score, demonstrating generalizability on the multi-regime FD004 dataset with a 15.71 RMSE. The proposed maintenance protocol achieved a 0.9973 AUC at the critical 30-cycle threshold, ensuring high reliability. Additionally, a decision-support simulator has been developed to validate this protocol under aggressive combat flight profiles.
Aug 3, 2026

Evaluating Forecasting Techniques for Hardware Errors on a Large-scale HPC System

Hardware error logs in high-performance computing (HPC) systems provide early signals of abnormal behavior, yet there remain challenges in effectively forecasting these errors using modern predictive methods. This work investigates the boundaries of applying time series forecasting to HPC hardware error dynamics. We use seven years of production logs from the Theta supercomputer to evaluate the predictive efficacy of classical statistical and deep learning models. Our results show that forecasting effectiveness depends strongly on the temporal structure of the error series: regularly occurring and structurally stable errors can be modeled accurately, particularly by LSTM and Transformer architectures with temporal features, while sparse and burst-dominated errors remain difficult to predict. Rather than proposing a deployment-ready failure prediction framework, this study provides empirical guidance on when forecasting is effective and highlights potential directions for improving forecasting accuracy in HPC hardware error analysis.
Jul 30, 2026

ConMem: Contribution-Aware Memory for Long-Horizon Manufacturing Inspection Logs

Long-horizon steel-equipment inspection requires reasoning over heterogeneous records accumulated across repeated inspection cycles. Existing retrieval-augmented generation systems treat historical logs as a static corpus and retain records without estimating their diagnostic value, failing to report early risk. To this end, we propose ConMem, a contribution-aware memory framework for LLM-assisted equipment inspection, supporting a human-in-the-loop early-risk screening system. Specifically, our ConMem first segments inspection logs into functional evidence units, then estimates each memory unit's contribution to downstream diagnosis through a Shapley-style estimation, and finally retains high-value evidence under a constrained memory budget. In experiments, we evaluate ConMem on real-world dataset and ConMem achieves 76.0% QA accuracy, exceeding the strongest directly comparable baseline. Relative to the naive 8K-context LLM baselines, it reduces the average number of input tokens by 88.2% and response time by 86.6%. Ablation studies also show that the functional-role-aware segmentation and contribution-based valuation are helping prioritize weak degradation signals for targeted field inspection. Practical deployments further confirm that ConMem retains the weak early signal across three inspection cycles, providing an early-stage seal-wear alert targeted for on-site inspectors.
Jul 28, 2026

Collaborative System Failure Prognostics via Federated Longitudinal-Survival Modeling

Time-to-event modeling provides a systematic framework for estimating time-dependent failure risk, reliability, and remaining useful life (RUL) from longitudinal condition monitoring data. However, applying these models to distributed prognostics remains challenging because sensor trajectories and failure-time records are often stored across organizations or operational sites and cannot be centrally pooled due to privacy or proprietary constraints. Moreover, the classical Cox proportional hazards model relies on a nonseparable partial likelihood involving global risk sets, making direct optimization difficult under standard federated learning protocols. This paper presents a federated longitudinal-survival modeling framework for collaborative system failure prognostics. The proposed framework combines longitudinal sensor representation learning with a client-separable discrete-time hazard objective, enabling multiple clients to collaboratively train a prognostic model without sharing raw sensor measurements or individual failure records. Time-dependent representations extracted from multivariate sensor histories are used to estimate interval-specific failure hazards, reliability curves, and system RUL. Experiments on the four C-MAPSS turbofan engine degradation subsets under simulated decentralized settings demonstrate that the proposed framework consistently improves prognostic performance over isolated local training while maintaining performance comparable to centralized training across heterogeneous operating conditions and failure modes. These results demonstrate the potential of federated longitudinal-survival modeling for collaborative, data-aware condition monitoring and system failure prognostics.
Jul 25, 2026

Label-free Industrial Fault Detection via Adversarial Inverse Reinforcement Learning: A System for Run-to-Failure Prognostics

Machinery fault detection (MFD) remains heavily reliant on supervised learning, which struggles with the scarcity of fault labels in real-world settings. While reinforcement learning (RL) offers a framework to model the sequential nature of degradation, current ``RL-based'' MFD methods reduce the problem to a static contextual bandit (CB) formulation: by ignoring state transitions and discarding the temporal discount factor, they collapse to standard supervised classification. We propose an adversarial inverse reinforcement learning (AIRL) framework that treats MFD as an offline IRL problem. Unlike reconstruction-based approaches that rely on static error margins, or CBs that ignore dynamics, our method recovers an intrinsic "health" reward directly from observational state transitions, requiring neither manual reward engineering nor fault labels. On three run-to-failure benchmarks (HUMS2023, IMS, XJTU-SY), AIRL is the only method achieving non-saturated post-detection consistency across all datasets, while CB baselines fail to detect gradual degradation and reconstruction models collapse into always-anomalous states. Code and data: https://github.com/dhirajneupane/AIRL-MFD-DN.
Jul 24, 2026

A Multi-level Information Integration Framework for Physically Verifiable Fault Diagnosis of Rotating Machinery

Integrating multi-level information, from physical models through data-driven diagnostics to natural language reasoning, into verifiable decision chains is a growing need in intelligent manufacturing. In bearing fault diagnosis, taken here as a representative testbed, the standard output is a class label and a confidence score derived from the classifier's own distribution, offering limited means of comparison against independent physical knowledge. Meanwhile, language models increasingly used for maintenance communication may introduce unsupported content. This work addresses both limitations from the output side. The proposed Diagnostic Evidence Network (DENet) is an encoder-agnostic multi-task framework that extends the output to a structured evidence record: the classification, a predicted characteristic frequency comparable against the theoretical value determined by bearing geometry and shaft speed, and a temporal localization of transient impulses inspectable on the raw waveform. Across four encoders and three public datasets, this evidence incurs no statistically significant accuracy cost, with a frequency error of about 6 Hz on 1,024-point segments. The deviation between predicted and theoretical frequency constitutes a label-free, inference-time validation signal. It detects misclassifications with AUROC of 0.970 and 0.871, and retains separation within the high-confidence subset. Finally, a QLoRA-adapted language model renders DENet's evidence into traceable maintenance reports without contributing diagnostic decisions, reducing unsupported-claim rates from 10-12% to 2% with no fabricated quantities observed.
Jul 24, 2026

General Value Functions for Remaining Useful Life and Failure-Mode Prediction

Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction and failure-mode classification are central tasks in predictive maintenance. Many data-driven pipelines use fixed-window supervised learning with complete terminal labels; such routes do not naturally encode the temporal recursion linking successive degradation-state predictions when observations are partial or unit identities are unavailable. We formulate prognostics as vector General Value Function (GVF) prediction on an absorbing degradation process, treating RUL and failure-mode probabilities as temporally consistent targets rather than independent window-level labels, and estimate them with a multi-step temporal-difference estimator, TD(n,λn,λ). Supporting theory identifies the Bellman fixed point of the vector GVFs, characterizes the linear projected-TD limit and its relation to complete-return Monte Carlo regression under realizability, and explains when bootstrapped TD targets are less variable than Monte Carlo returns. On an event-triggered multimode simulation and NASA C-MAPSS label-scarce stitch data, TD improves RUL and failure-mode prediction relative to a supervised same-backbone Monte Carlo control, especially under scarce complete labels. Practically, fragmented, identity-free degradation records can contribute local Bellman transitions instead of being discarded until complete run-to-failure labels are available.
Jul 24, 2026

Multi-Agent System-driven Digital Twins for predictive maintenance: architectures, technologies and open research challenges

Digital twins have emerged as a foundational technology within the context of Industry 4.0, offering a paradigm for the real-time virtual representation of physical systems. However, managing their growing complexity, particularly in distributed industrial environments, requires intelligent architectures capable of autonomous decision-making, dynamic adaptability, and inter-agent coordination. This systematic review explores the intersection between Multi-Agent Systems and Digital Twins, with a particular focus on predictive maintenance applications in resource-constrained contexts. Through a critical analysis of over 547 papers published in high-impact journals (IEEE Transactions, Nature, Elsevier, MDPI), we establish a taxonomy of existing hybrid architectures, identify persistent technological bottlenecks, and formulate three open research questions concerning: (i) the deployment of artificial intelligence on resource-constrained microcontrollers, (ii) distributed multi-node coordination via lightweight communication protocols, and (iii) the hierarchical orchestration of Digital Twins toward smart factory control integrating residual life estimation and explainable Artificial Intelligence. The results of this analysis reveal that, despite significant progress, no existing system offers an integrated embedded-distributed hierarchical solution that simultaneously meets the requirements of Industry 5.0.
Jul 23, 2026

Climate-resilient electric vehicle charging infrastructure for sustainable cities: An interpretable causal-ensemble framework for preventive maintenance and low-carbon mobility

Reliable electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure is a cornerstone of sustainable, low-carbon cities, yet urban climate stress such as extreme heat, heavy precipitation, and humidity increasingly raises equipment fault risk and undermines the resilience of urban energy and mobility services. Shifting operation from reactive repair to preventive maintenance depends on accurate, forward-looking fault-risk prediction, a task complicated by the heterogeneous time scales of physical, behavioral, contextual, and historical signals and by forecasting over a multi-week horizon. We develop FGDSE, a feature-governed dynamic stacking ensemble that forms an interpretable decision-support system for climate-resilient charging-asset management. It partitions heterogeneous signals into four feature families, assigns each to a domain expert whose inductive bias matches the data, and adds two deep temporal experts for short-term pulses and long-term degradation; a horizon-wise gating mechanism then learns adaptive weights to forecast daily fault risk over 1 to 30 days. SHAP attribution and an X-learner extend the probabilistic output into causal decision support with post-level treatment effects. On 25 months of data from 13 stations, FGDSE surpasses twelve baselines beyond the ten-day horizon, sustains about 85% macro-recall at 30 days with an AUC decay of only 3.2 points, and reveals a shift of dominance from fault history toward climate stress. It identifies extreme heat as the sole exposure whose causal effect amplifies over time, flagging roughly 30% of posts as heat-sensitive and yielding quantitative thresholds for climate-adaptive maintenance that strengthens urban mobility resilience and sustains low-carbon travel.
Jul 21, 2026

Breaking the Homogeneity Assumption: Specialized Multi-Generator Adversarial Learning for Rare Failure Detection in Predictive Maintenance

Supervised learning models in the predictive maintenance field are regularly trained on highly imbalanced industrial datasets: machine failures occur rarely but have a disproportionate effect on operations. In addition to the clear class disparity, failure data are typically non-homogeneous, with different failure modes arising from distinct physical processes and exhibiting a multimodal distribution across minorities and classes. Traditional imbalance-management methods, e.g., undersampling, SMOTE-based interpolation, or cost-sensitive learning, typically assume that the minority population is homogeneous. This means their effectiveness is severely limited in the multifaceted conditions encountered in industrial practice. This paper determines the possibility of a failure-type-conscious generative augmentation program to improve the identification of infrequent failures in predictive maintenance systems. An experimental design that is leakage-safe is used to compare five imbalance-handling methods: cost-sensitive learning, random undersampling, SMOTE oversampling, single-generator GAN augmentation, and a specialized multi-generator GAN architecture that has independent generators that are asked to learn individual failure subtypes. Precision/Recall-oriented measures are used to quantify model performance; the main evaluation measure is the PR-AUC. Experiments conducted on the AI4I 2020 predictive maintenance dataset indicate that the proposed multi-generator GAN framework produces more realistic minority samples, yielding higher PR-AUC and recall scores compared to traditional resampling methods and individual-generator GAN augmentation.
Jul 21, 2026

Marine Engine Fault Dataset: Open-Access Data under Controlled Reference and Fault Scenario Conditions

Open-access datasets for marine-engine predictive maintenance remain scarce, particularly those from controlled fault experiments with documented operating conditions, subsystem-level interventions and system-level measurements. This work presents the Marine Engine Fault Dataset, an openly available dataset from a turbocharged, intercooled three-cylinder marine diesel engine operated on a testbed under both reference and fault-scenario conditions. The experimental campaign combined a reference-performance program across the 30-90% load range with scenario-based tests in which abnormal conditions were introduced after stabilized fault-free operation, enabling controlled comparison between baseline and fault-affected behaviour. Five anomaly classes were implemented through physical interventions affecting major engine subsystems: cooling-water pump cavitation, compressor air-filter clogging, air-cooler fouling, injection-valve nozzle clogging and turbine degradation induced through increased exhaust-side restriction. The released data comprise multi-sensor time-series of operating, thermal, pressure, flow and combustion-related variables, with a separate reference-performance record and metadata for structured reuse. Technical validation shows that the reference measurements remain physically coherent across the operating range and that the imposed anomalies produce interpretable response patterns consistent with the affected subsystems, including progressively distinguishable behaviour where different severities were implemented. By combining controlled fault realization, multi-load operation and system-level measurements within a real marine-engine platform, the dataset provides a well-documented benchmark for anomaly detection, fault diagnosis, degradation modelling and related condition-monitoring studies in maritime machinery.
Jul 19, 2026

Dynamic Loss Balancing for Joint SOH and RUL Prediction of Lithium-Ion Batteries via a Rotary SOH-Injected Prior Battery Transformer

The deployment of reliable lithium-ion battery management systems is crucial for accelerating electrification, yet the joint prognosis of State of Health (SOH) and Remaining Useful Life (RUL) remains severely hindered by task heteroscedasticity. Conventional multi-task learning frameworks fail to balance the bounded, low-variance noise of SOH estimation with the unbounded, nonlinearly expanding uncertainty of long-term RUL predictions. Here, we present the Rotary SOH-Injected Prior Battery Transformer (RoSIP-Batt), a unified co-estimation framework that resolves these optimization conflicts. By formulating joint prediction as a Bayesian multi-task objective, RoSIP-Batt introduces a homoscedastic uncertainty weighting mechanism to dynamically scale task-specific gradients based on learned residual noise levels. The architecture leverages decoupled dual classification tokens and a per-dimension gated fusion mechanism, secured by a gradient-detachment operator to prevent high-variance RUL updates from corrupting the stable SOH representation space. To capture electrochemical degradation patterns without relying on absolute cycle steps, Rotary Position Embedding (RoPE) is incorporated into a shared Transformer backbone to model translation-invariant relative temporal profiles. Crucially, the intermediate SOH estimate is directly injected into the RUL regression head as a physical degradation prior. Evaluations across the NASA, MIT-Stanford, and HUST datasets show that RoSIP-Batt significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, reducing SOH estimation error to 1.994% MAE on NASA and restricting RUL prediction error to 62.85 cycles on Stanford. These findings establish RoSIP-Batt as a highly generalizable, computationally efficient solution suitable for real-time embedded BMS deployment.
Jul 18, 2026

SurvCF(t): Counterfactual Explanations for Survival Analysis in Predictive Maintenance Multivariate Time Series Data

Predictive maintenance relies on accurate Remaining Useful Life estimation, often formulated using survival analysis over multivariate time-series data. While modern deep survival models achieve strong predictive performance, their black-box nature limits their use in safety-critical settings where actionable insight is required. In this work, we introduce SurvCF(t), the first framework for generating counterfactual explanations for survival models operating on time-series data. SurvCF(t) identifies minimal, plausible, and temporally consistent changes to an asset's operational history that increase its predicted life time, framing explanation as a constrained optimization problem combining validity, proximity, sparsity, and plausibility. We evaluate the method on multiple benchmarks, including C-MAPSS, N-CMAPSS, and a real-world case study of the Scania Component_X dataset, demonstrating its ability to produce actionable and interpretable interventions. Our results show that SurvCF(t) bridges the gap between survival prediction and prescriptive maintenance, enabling explainable and decision-oriented AI for maintenance strategies.
Jul 17, 2026

Leakage-Robust Evaluation and Data-Scale Sensitivity of Attention-Enhanced Multi-Task Learning for Joint Fault Diagnosis and Remaining Useful Life Estimation

Multi-task deep learning models that jointly perform fault classification and remaining useful life (RUL) regression are increasingly used in predictive maintenance, yet reported performance can be strongly affected by how sliding-window sequences are split into training and test sets. We investigate this issue using AMTLNet, an attention-enhanced multi-task architecture, on three public benchmarks: NASA C-MAPSS, NASA IMS, and the UCI Hydraulic System dataset. We show that naive splitting can inflate classification accuracy from a genuine 20-60 percent to 99.9 percent, or reduce it to 0 percent through degenerate class representation. To address this, we introduce a chunk-based, leakage-audited splitting protocol and evaluate all models using five seeds, one-way ANOVA, and Tukey HSD tests. On C-MAPSS, with 19,976 leakage-free training windows, AMTLNet matches a single-task CNN-LSTM baseline in classification, achieving 84.12 +/- 0.96 percent accuracy with Tukey p = 1.0, and reaches an R2 of 0.86 +/- 0.01 while significantly outperforming a naive multi-task baseline. On the smaller Bearing and Hydraulic datasets, multi-task training is unstable, but the failure mode differs: classification degrades for Bearing, whereas regression degrades for Hydraulic. We relate this asymmetry to label provenance and propose a practical framework for deciding when joint training is appropriate under data scarcity. Ablation results show that the multi-head attention branch is the main contributor to regression stability. Removing it reduces R2 from 0.861 to 0.766 and more than doubles classification variance, whereas the convolutional branch contributes little to regression despite using about one-third of the parameters. This study contributes a reusable leakage-audit protocol, seed-transparent evaluation, and evidence that task-specific stability depends more on label provenance than on task type.
Jul 16, 2026

VLT: A Vision-Language-Time Series Multimodal Foundation Model for Industrial Intelligence

Industrial time series serve as the foundation for Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) to ensure the reliability and safety of industrial equipment such as aero-engines. However, existing approaches are typically limited to single-modality modeling, which restricts their generalization in complex scenarios. Although recent advances in large language models (LLMs) provide new opportunities for multimodal learning, bridging continuous time-series signals and discrete textual semantics remains an open challenge. To this end, we propose VLT, a multimodal foundation model that jointly models time-series, frequency-spectrum visual representations, and textual knowledge. A key insight is to utilize the frequency spectrum as a visual bridge to connect continuous temporal signals with discrete semantics. Specifically, a Time-aware Mixture-of-Experts (Time-MoE) is designed to capture heterogeneous temporal dynamics, while a Frequency-Text Augmented Learner enables joint modeling of spectral and semantic features within a shared representation space. Furthermore, a time-centric gradient alignment mechanism is introduced to mitigate cross-modal optimization conflicts via gradient normalization and reliability-aware dynamic reweighting. Extensive experiments on multiple industrial datasets demonstrate that VLT outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving superior robustness and generalization under few-shot, noisy, and incomplete-modality settings.
Jul 6, 2026

An Exploration of Agentic Information Fusion for Test Maintenance Prediction

Test maintenance is a critical, yet costly, activity - particularly as codebases rapidly evolve. To assist, we present MAST, a multi-agent framework that predicts which test cases require maintenance following changes to the production code. This identification task is necessary as a precondition to any subsequent maintenance activities, but remains challenging due to the complex relationships between production and test code. MAST advances the state-of-the-art by integrating multiple analyses -- including static, lexical, and semantic analyses - through an intelligent fusion and post-check procedure and by focusing on a realistic use and evaluation setting - i.e., standardized input formats, repository-level analyses, and the ability to infer relations between test and production artifacts rather than assuming a pre-existing mapping. We evaluated MAST on 21 industrial Java repositories from Ericsson AB, considering situations where test maintenance both was and was not required in the ground truth. MAST yielded superior precision to a state-of-the-art baseline - resulting in a higher accuracy, F1, and F2 score - with only some loss in recall. Our ablation study demonstrates the value of each analysis in producing the final recommendations. MAST illustrates the potential of multi-agent systems that can fuse multiple information sources when performing software testing tasks.
Jul 3, 2026

Modular Foundation Models for Time-Series Perception in Digital Twins

Engineering Digital Twins and Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) systems rely on robust perception modules to extract actionable information from heterogeneous and non-stationary time-series data. However, most existing approaches remain task-specific, data-hungry, and difficult to integrate into scalable monitoring and decision-making pipelines. Moreover, purely data-driven models often lack robustness and transferability across varying operating conditions. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a modular foundation model for time-series perception based on a collection of pretrained representation encoders. The framework leverages self-supervised learning on heterogeneous datasets to learn transferable and task-agnostic representations, which can be reused across multiple PHM tasks. A gating mechanism is introduced to dynamically select relevant encoders for a given target dataset, enabling conditional computation and adaptive model composition. The selected representations are projected into a shared latent space and aggregated using a Transformer-based self-attention module that explicitly models cross-encoder interactions. The resulting architecture supports multiple downstream tasks, including imputation, long-term forecasting, and few-shot learning, through lightweight task-specific heads, while keeping pretrained encoders frozen during adaptation. Extensive ablation studies demonstrate the complementary roles of self-supervised pretraining, encoder selection, representation alignment, and adaptive aggregation. Experimental results on the ETT benchmark show competitive performance across tasks, while a real-world industrial case study on virtual sensing for hydro-generator rotor temperature highlights the practical relevance of the approach.
Jul 2, 2026

Liquid Latent State Dynamics for Interpretable Turbofan Degradation Modeling

Multivariate time-series models for prognostics are often evaluated by point prediction accuracy, yet their internal states rarely expose a coherent degradation process. We study liquid neural networks as latent dynamics models for aircraft engine health monitoring on the C-MAPSS benchmark. The proposed model encodes a history window into a latent state, evolves that state with a liquid transition model, and decodes future sensor observations. To separate health evolution from operating-condition variation, the latent state is factorized into degradation and condition components. Remaining useful life, monotonic risk, and latent-consistency losses supervise the degradation component, while condition prediction and decorrelation losses discourage operating-condition leakage. Across FD001--FD004, the full disentangled model improves overall sensor forecasting RMSE from 0.2438 for a GRU baseline to 0.2266, with the largest gains on the multi-condition subsets FD002 and FD004. The learned degradation state also forms a clearer temporal degradation axis, reaching an average state-speed Spearman correlation of 0.5960. Direct remaining-useful-life regression remains stronger for the GRU baseline, indicating that the proposed representation is currently more effective as an interpretable world model for degradation dynamics than as a calibrated lifetime regressor. These results suggest that liquid latent dynamics can bridge predictive maintenance forecasting and inspectable health-state modeling.
Jun 26, 2026

An Agentic AI Pipeline for Appliance-Level Energy Anomaly Detection and LLM-Driven Recommendations

Appliance-level energy monitoring in office buildings produces noisy alerts that non-expert facility managers struggle to use. This paper proposes an end-to-end agentic pipeline that combines deep time-series forecasting, variational anomaly detection, and LLM-based reasoning to generate prioritized, actionable maintenance recommendations. The system tracks seven office appliances using a hybrid Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) forecasting model, and applies a per-appliance LSTM Variational Autoencoder (VAE) with attention to flag abnormal daily consumption episodes. A three-stage LangChain pipeline begins with a Context Agent that always retrieves three core RAG sources (model reliability, hourly baseline, and expert knowledge) and conditionally adds up to three more (forecast context, anomaly history, global baseline) based on event characteristics, capped at eight reasoning steps. A Diagnosis Agent converts the evidence into a structured JSON diagnosis, and a Report Agent renders a human-readable narrative. A reflective memory layer incorporates operator feedback. The dashboard shows real-time 30-minute forecasts, intraday consumption, the previous day anomaly report, and a feedback form. We evaluate the forecasting model, anomaly detector with appliance-specific thresholds, and LLM reasoning on a 16-scenario benchmark including sustained and transient spikes, unexpected shutdowns, and systemic events, comparing five LLM backends under static vs. dynamic retrieval. Dynamic retrieval matches full static retrieval across all backends while cutting average context from six to three-six sources per event. The best backend scores 90.4/100 with a 100% pass rate at a 70-point threshold, and a fully local 7B-parameter model passes all 16 scenarios.
Jun 24, 2026

Parametric Generalized Adaptive Moment Features (PG-AMF) for Bearing Fault Diagnosis and Machine Health Monitoring

Accurate fault diagnosis of rolling element bearings in rotating machinery is considered essential for ensuring industrial safety and enabling predictive maintenance. Conventional statistical feature-based methods rely on predefined descriptors, whose diagnostic sensitivity is constrained by fixed configurations and limited adaptability across varying fault conditions. Although deep learning approaches offer strong representational capacity, their effectiveness is often restricted by high data requirements and reduced interpretability. In this work, a parametric adaptive feature extraction framework is proposed, in which feature characteristics are learned directly from data rather than being manually specified. Multiple complementary representations are extracted from vibration signals, including absolute features capturing signal energy distribution, signed moment features reflecting waveform asymmetry, and AC-coupled moment features emphasizing dynamic fluctuations, while interactions between multiple sensor channels are modeled through a structured fusion mechanism to enhance fault representation. The proposed approach is evaluated on a benchmark gearbox bearing dataset comprising five health conditions, including normal operation and multiple fault types. Improved classification performance is observed compared to conventional methods, with consistent results under cross-validation, indicating strong generalization capability. Additionally, enhanced feature separability is demonstrated through clearer clustering patterns in low-dimensional projections. The learned representations effectively capture a wide range of signal characteristics, supporting both improved diagnostic performance and practical applicability in industrial monitoring systems.
Jun 23, 2026

An LLM-based Two-Stage Transformer Framework for Cross-Domain Bearing Fault Diagnosis with Limited Data

Bearing fault diagnosis faces critical challenges when dataset heterogeneity, operating condition variations, and limited labeled data occur simultaneously in industrial environments. Existing approaches address these issues in isolation and rely on implicit feature alignment, limiting effectiveness under concurrent challenges. This paper proposes a knowledge-guided two-stage transfer learning framework that employs a lightweight GPT-2-style Transformer with causal self-attention for hierarchical feature extraction from vibration signals, establishing explicit pathways where pre-trained encoder weights and fault prototype embeddings serve as knowledge carriers from multi-source pre-training to target adaptation. The framework addresses the dual-shift challenge through multi-source learning for generalizable representations, prototype-based knowledge modulation for target adaptation, and taxonomy-adaptive classification for seamless transfer across heterogeneous fault categories. Experimental validation on four real-world datasets demonstrates 92.61% average accuracy with only 10% labeled target data, outperforming state-of-the-art methods by 17.24 percentage points, establishing a practical pathway toward cost-effective predictive maintenance in Industry 4.0 applications.
Jun 23, 2026

Lightweight Transformer Models for On-Device Fault Detection: A Benchmark Study on Resource-Constrained Deployment

On-device fault detection enables real-time diagnostics without cloud dependency, but deploying machine learning models on resource-constrained hardware demands careful tradeoffs between accuracy, latency, and model size. We present a benchmark comparing traditional ML methods (Random Forest, XGBoost, SVM, Logistic Regression) against lightweight transformer architectures (DistilBERT, TinyBERT-6L, TinyBERT-4L, MobileBERT) for binary fault detection across three public datasets: NASA C-MAPSS turbofan degradation, SECOM semiconductor manufacturing, and UCI AI4I 2020 predictive maintenance. We evaluate classification performance (F1-score, AUC), model size, and CPU inference latency, and further assess INT8 dynamic quantization and a two-stage adaptive inference pipeline. Our results reveal that on well-separated sensor data (C-MAPSS), lightweight transformers match traditional ML at 87.8% F1 but at 100x the model size and 9000x the latency. TinyBERT-4L emerges as the most deployment-friendly transformer at 55 MB and 18 ms CPU latency. INT8 quantization reduces size by 25% while preserving 86.9% F1. Our adaptive pipeline, routing 97.9% of predictions through a quantized triage model and only 2.1% to a larger expert, achieves 87.6% F1 at 19.5 ms average latency. On severely imbalanced datasets (SECOM, UCI-PM), both traditional and transformer methods struggle significantly, highlighting fundamental limitations of current approaches for extreme class imbalance in fault detection. All code is publicly available.
Jun 20, 2026

Learning a Normal World Model for Few-Shot Boundary-Calibrated Abnormality Detection

Abnormality detection in complex systems faces two practical barriers: abnormal labels are scarce, and binary labels do not quantify how far an event has departed from normal behavior. We study a normal-world modeling formulation for this setting. Instead of learning a large and incomplete space of abnormal classes, the model learns the normal world from abundant normal events and uses a few abnormal examples only to calibrate the boundary of normality. We instantiate this idea as a Hypergraph Entropic Normal-World Model. The model represents multivariate sensor windows as context-conditioned hypergraphs, where hyperedges capture high-order relations among groups of variables. It then defines abnormality by an entropy-aware normal-world energy that combines temporal prediction surprise, hypergraph consistency surprise, and latent normal-manifold departure. On the NASA C-MAPSS turbofan degradation benchmark, the proposed full energy achieves strong zero-shot and few-shot performance across all four subsets and reaches AUROC 0.9983 on FD004, the most complex setting with multiple operating conditions and fault modes. Beyond standard detection metrics, we introduce mechanistic validation tests to probe whether the energy encodes normal-world structure rather than a superficial input-output mapping. The learned energy accepts unseen healthy engines, increases along degradation trajectories, and sharply penalizes context-mismatched cross-variable coupling breaks. These results suggest that normal-world energy can serve as an anomaly score, a graded risk measure, and a testable representation of normal system behavior under severe abnormal-label scarcity.
Jun 19, 2026

Predictive Repair Management Using a Multi-Head Attention Transformer and Online Learning

Accurate prediction of repair duration is an important challenge in product maintenance due to its implications for resource allocation, customer satisfaction, and operational performance. This study aims to develop a deep learning framework to help fleet repair shops accurately categorize repair time given product historical data. The study uses an automobile repair and maintenance dataset and creates an end-to-end predictive framework by employing a multi-head attention network designed for tabular data. The developed framework combines categorical information, transformed through embeddings and attention mechanisms, with numerical historical data to facilitate integration and learning from diverse data features. A weighted loss function is introduced to overcome class imbalance issues in large datasets. Moreover, an online learning strategy is used for continuous incremental model updates to maintain predictive accuracy in evolving operational environments. Our empirical findings demonstrate that the multi-head attention mechanism extracts meaningful interactions between vehicle identifiers and repair types compared to a feed-forward neural network and a random forest model. Also, combining historical maintenance data with an online learning strategy facilitates real-time adjustments to changing patterns and increases the model's predictive performance on new data. The model is tested on real-world repair data spanning 2013 to 2020 and achieves an accuracy of 78%, with attention weight analyses illustrating feature interactions.