Stochastic Systems

Generative Marginalization Models (MaMs) have been recently introduced as efficient neural sampling models for any-order autoregressive modelling of discrete distributions. By learning both the marginal and conditional probabilities of a persistent-block Gibbs sampler, MaMs enable fast posterior evaluation with a single neural network forward pass. While prior work has considered MaMs to be distinct from Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets), a well-established paradigm for inference in discrete stochastic models, we show that they are equivalent. Then, we also extend MaMs' sampling strategy to non-autoregressive generative processes. In particular, we describe an automatic criterion for full-state rejuvenation of the Gibbs sampler, derived from the Gelman-Rubin statistic, which plays a key role in speeding up learning convergence. Our experiments show that our method, called Particle GFlowNets, markedly accelerates training in large combinatorial spaces.

Leading benchmarks for formal theorem proving with large language models are small collections drawn from competition math, such as the IMO and Putnam, that poorly represent field-specific applications. We introduce StochBench, a Lean 4 benchmark of 450 graduate stochastic-processes problems at varying abstraction levels, each paired with its natural-language source. Addressing a field underrepresented in Mathlib, it covers finite and countable Markov chains, renewal processes, random walks, martingales, stopping times, queues, Brownian motion, stochastic calculus, weak convergence, and Poisson and continuous-time Markov processes. Our Opus 4.8-based agent achieves a 34.9% proof rate (157/450) under a 15-minute per-problem limit. StochBench better represents domain-specific applied mathematics while remaining challenging for advanced provers.

Machine learning procedures are commonly evaluated in terms of predictive accuracy and computational efficiency. However, their achievable performance is fundamentally constrained by structural properties of the underlying data-generating process, which are formalized in terms of informational bounds. In this work we examine intrinsic limits of data-driven decision systems from an information-theoretic and interaction-based perspective. We analyze minimal achievable error in classification through Fano-type bounds and precision limits in parametric estimation via the Cramér-Rao inequality, emphasizing that such limits depend on the underlying model rather than on algorithmic sophistication alone. We further discuss how implicit assumptions, such as independence, ergodicity, and distributional stability, affect the validity of inferential procedures. Building on interaction-based modeling principles, we review typical frameworks such as Markov Random Fields and potential based representations for encoding dependence mechanisms. We also describe decision systems, including LLM-integrated agent architectures, as feedback-driven stochastic processes where state-dependent dynamics may induce emergent macroscopic behavior. This perspective highlights the importance of having adequate models for the data as a prerequi- site for expanding predictive capability, and situates algorithmic learning within the informational limits imposed by the models.

Streaming video generation holds strong potential for world modeling, where future frames must be inferred online sequentially to form a continuous video stream. However, streaming video diffusion models introduce a fundamental train-inference mismatch: inference follows a specialized denoising order, whereas advanced training strategies typically require diverse noise-level configurations. To address this trade-off between train-inference consistency and training coverage, we reformulate the video diffusion sampling as a frame-indexed stochastic process over noise levels. Within this stochastic process space, we construct a continuous training trajectory along which the sampling schedule progressively evolves from independent sampling to inference-consistent sampling. We further introduce a joint calibration algorithm and a temporal correlative sampling algorithm to ensure trajectory smoothness and cross-frame correlation. Building on these designs, we propose Stream Forcing, a unified training framework for streaming video generation that balances training sufficiency and inference efficiency. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Stream Forcing significantly improves generation quality with a 36.6% FVD improvement on the UCF-101 benchmark. Furthermore, our method facilitates robust zero-shot extrapolation to long-horizon video generation with a 27.9% FVD improvement on the UCF-101 benchmark.

Control policies optimized in simulation can perform poorly in the real system when the parameters $x$ of the simulator are estimated from limited data but the resulting parameter uncertainty is not represented inside the simulation. A common way to incorporate such ambiguity is to simulate each trajectory of the system under a randomly drawn value for $x$. Since the policy cannot observe the drawn value, it must initially choose controls that perform well across many possible parameter values. However, if the policy progressively observes the system, it can often gradually infer the value of $x$, so that ambiguity vanishes. Over time, the policy then specializes to its estimate of $x$ and loses its robustness. This is undesirable in many real systems, where latent factors are expected to shift. In financial markets, for example, a policy hedging a derivative payoff should remain robust to changes in the volatility regime. To induce such continual robustness, we propose training policies in simulators where ambiguity varies with the system's state but does not systematically decay over time. We formalize this requirement as stationary ambiguity: the simulator should induce a stationary filter process over the latent state. We show how to construct such simulators and demonstrate, on hedging problems, that policies trained under stationary ambiguity preserve robustness to latent factors over time, leading to strong performance on real market data. As a modeling principle, stationary ambiguity informs many simulator design decisions: which models make realistic simulators, how their parameters should be randomized, and how simulator and policy should be initialized. While our experiments focus on hedging, stationary ambiguity may also be useful for other sequential control problems driven by exogenous stochastic processes with shifting latent structure.

Volatility forecasting is dominated by persistence and measurement noise, leaving limited residual structure for nonlinear models to exploit. We introduce Susceptible Architectures (SUSA), a reservoir-design principle for volatility forecasting, and its two concrete implementations, based on complex-valued open-chain and periodic reservoirs and regime-conditioned experts to interpret reservoir features across calm, onset, recovery, and persistent-stress states. We also implement open-system $q$-qubit counterparts in Qiskit while retaining a common AR-Ridge anchor and a bounded residual correction trained under QLIKE. We evaluate models on 16 U.S. equity and exchange-traded-fund series using three disjoint chronological training, validation, and test folds, a 12-observation input window, and a five-observation forecast horizon. The proposed models perform competitively with GARCH, achieving statistically significant QLIKE improvements for specific assets (IWM, XLP). Also models' forecasts complement HARQ-style predictions: a stacked ensemble improves mean QLIKE by 0.0116 over its strongest constituent and wins in 75% of test scenarios.

Gaussian graphical model selection is usually studied under independent sampling, but in many applications the data arise as a single trajectory of a dependent stochastic process. We study exact recovery of the graph from one trajectory of random-scan Gaussian Glauber dynamics. Existing techniques for this problem either inherit the mixing time of the chain, which can be super-polynomial in the dimension $p$ without strong assumptions, or are suboptimal in the minimum normalized edge strength $κ$. We propose two algorithms that are mixing-free and attain the $κ^{-2}$ dependence of the information-theoretic lower bounds. Both instantiate a shared dueling-neighborhood search meta-algorithm with a local statistic built directly from the update sequence. For every fixed precision matrix and deterministic initialization, the first algorithm fits a least-squares regression at the updates of each node and has pointwise recovery horizon $\widetilde O(pd^{2}/κ^{2})$, where $d$ is the maximum degree. Its horizon depends logarithmically on a local conditioning quantity and on the initialization potential. The second algorithm is based on counting occurences of a specific update pattern and requires $\widetilde O(pd^{4}/κ^{2})$ updates, with no dependence on any condition number. The central technical challenge is that both statistics are built from dependent, non-stationary observations. Our analysis tackles this by demonstrating how to extract fresh Gaussian innovations from the update sequence, which yields mixing-free control of appropriate quantities. Neither the algorithms nor their analyses invoke stationarity, a spectral gap, or mixing conditions.

Quantum machine learning models define probabilistic input--output maps through coherent quantum evolution and measurement. While such models can exhibit computational advantages, their internal functioning and decision making generally resists interpretation in terms of stochastic trajectories through intermediate configurations. In contrast to classical (Markovian) stochastic processes, quantum dynamics generically violates the Chapman--Kolmogorov divisibility condition, preventing a decomposition into probabilistically meaningful intermediate transitions. We develop a probabilistic framework for representing quantum learning models as stochastic processes over configuration spaces where the dynamics are modeled as linear maps on probability distributions. Starting from a fixed POVM, arbitrary quantum channels induce transition kernels on the associated probability representation. For informationally complete POVMs, and in particular SIC-POVMs, these kernels are Markovian but generally quasi-stochastic, with non-classicality appearing as negativity. By contrast, projective spaces admit positive stochastic kernels but generally require non-Markovian dynamics due to the failure of Chapman--Kolmogorov divisibility. This yields a trade-off between negativity and dependence on past configurations, i.e. quantum dynamics can be represented either by Markovian quasi-stochastic maps or by positive stochastic processes with higher Markov order. We discuss how such representations of quantum dynamics can be interpreted as stochastic walks through a memory space in the spirit of Projective Simulation, a model of learning and agency in which decisions arise from random walks over an episodic memory network. We further outline how finite-order stochastic kernels can approximate such quantum deliberation processes and show in what regimes the classical machine learning model is recovered.

To address the escalating energy and latency demands of machine-learning workloads, we introduce a blueprint for an energy-efficient and fast thermodynamic computing stack that leverages stochastic analog processes in physical hardware. In this work, we focus on energy-based thermodynamic computing where the stochastic process is well described by Langevin dynamics with tunable energy potentials. The implementation of such potentials in physical hardware enables us to generate and sample from basic parameterized energy-based models. We demonstrate how to construct and train popular classes of machine learning models based on these hardware-native energy-based models, using the framework of probabilistic graphical models. We analyze the runtime and energy consumption of different models in this thermodynamic paradigm based on theoretical considerations and numerical studies. As a preliminary experimental realization of such hardware, we present our stochastic analog superconducting circuits driven by thermal noise. Together, these results outline a path toward energy-efficient thermodynamic hardware for probabilistic machine learning.

The stochastic fundamental diagram (SFD) provides a probabilistic description of the relationship between traffic density and flow or speed, enabling uncertainty-aware traffic modeling. However, existing stochastic models frequently struggle to accommodate rigorous physical constraints while retaining sufficient flexibility to capture complex nonlinear patterns. To address this, we propose a novel semiparametric SFD modeling framework by leveraging specially designed functional forms. These functions intrinsically satisfy physical constraints defined on the moments of the conditional flow distribution given traffic density while incorporating neural-network-based structures to capture complex empirical patterns. We derive a system of moment-matching equations to convert physical constraints into the parameterization of the conditional distribution, proving that a unique solution exists for the location-scale family of distributions, thereby guaranteeing model well-posedness. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the framework can be extended to non-location-scale distributions, including those requiring additional boundary constraints. Empirical evaluations on a real-world dataset reveal that our approach consistently outperforms representative baselines, delivering superior probabilistic accuracy and robust uncertainty quantification, particularly in congested regimes. Overall, the proposed framework provides a theoretically grounded and flexible foundation for stochastic traffic flow modeling.

We address fundamental challenges in representing and computing $\mathbb{R}^{d}$-valued predictable square-integrable processes over $[0,T]$, collected in the space $\mathcal{H}^2_T(\mathbb{R}^{d})$. These processes are central to continuous-time stochastic control, reinforcement learning, and mathematical finance. Although Wiener-chaos expansions offer strong theoretical tools, traditional computational methods are hindered by the need for large chaos dictionaries and high-order iterated integrals. To overcome these obstacles, we introduce NeuralChaos -- a neural operator architecture that produces elements of $\mathcal{H}^2_T(\mathbb{R}^{d})$ using only finitely many evaluations of the driving Brownian motion, while preserving predictability and square-integrability. We prove that NeuralChaos is dense in $\mathcal{H}^2_T(\mathbb{R}^{d})$ and achieves the best $N$-term chaoslet approximation rates for compressible and Malliavin--Sobolev regular processes. Moreover, compressibility is shown to be typical for processes from $\mathcal{H}^2_T(\mathbb{R}^{d})$ under non-degenerate sub-Gaussian sampling. In contrast, we show that finite-dimensional Markovian neural SDE models constitute a meagre and Gaussian-null subset in $\mathcal{H}^2_T(\mathbb{R}^{d})$, regardless of discretization, whereas compressible processes are generic. Numerical experiments on a stochastic optimal control problem and dynamic hedging highlight the practical effectiveness of our approach. Our results enable more efficient and expressive modelling in stochastic analysis and mathematical finance.

Stochastic-process models are, as a rule, far easier to simulate than to condition. Non-linear observations, non-Gaussian likelihoods, black-box information, and global constraints all induce intractable conditional laws, requiring bespoke, model-specific constructions. We introduce LatentFlow, a single framework for conditioning stochastic processes, with no learned neural approximations and no training. Our starting point is to write the stochastic process as the deterministic image of a tractable latent innovation, $f_0 = T_{\vartheta}(ξ_0)$, with $ξ_0$ sampled from a simple reference distribution. This reduces process-level conditioning to latent-space inference: pull the likelihood back through $T_{\vartheta}$, sample the resulting latent law with a tractable guided probability flow, and push the samples forward. This construction is provably exact at the level of the target law; in practice, approximation enters only through finite terminal noising, Monte Carlo guidance, and time discretisation of the continuous-time dynamics, each of which is explicit and systematically reducible. As LatentFlow is training-free, conditioning reduces to solving a single reverse-time SDE. This enables conditional sampling in seconds on a single desktop CPU across model classes that have never shared a scalable method: classical spatial priors, nonlinear stochastic dynamics, mechanistic models from the physical and life sciences, stochastic PDEs, heavy-tails and extremes, point and discrete-state processes, and neural or simulator-defined processes.

We consider sparse multivariate stochastic systems that evolve in continuous time according to a causal mechanism and present methodology to recover the system's time-infinitesimal transition mechanism from mere cross-sectional data. This observational paradigm is motivated by applications such as gene expression analysis, where destructive experimental techniques may only allow recording data once over a cell's lifetime. Precisely, we assume the system follows a time-homogeneous diffusion process that has reached an equilibrium distribution at observation time. Further, we assume the causal mechanism is fully described by the diffusion drift, is acyclic, and its causal structure graph is known. In this setting, we prove that the full causal mechanism, i.e., the drift function, can be non-parametrically identified under a weak non-explosion criterion. We derive a non-parametric kernel estimator for this challenging inverse problem and prove its consistency. Moreover, we propose a cross-validation scheme for hyperparameter tuning, illustrate the behavior of our estimator in simulations, and we discuss connections with irreversible generative diffusion models and low-frequency sampled data.

Autonomous robots operating in uncertain environments must satisfy complex temporal and safety specifications despite stochastic dynamics and sensing noise. While Signal Temporal Logic (STL) offers robustness measures for gradient-based optimization, existing extensions either lack differentiability or ignore belief-space uncertainty. We introduce pdSTL (probabilistic differentiable Signal Temporal Logic), a framework that unifies probabilistic semantics with differentiable robustness over belief trajectories. pdSTL employs interval-valued probabilistic semantics to compute conservative satisfaction bounds, propagated compositionally through the STL syntax tree. We formulate the temporal robustness evaluation as a recurrent, LSTM-style unfolding of STL operators, enabling linear-time, differentiable monitoring suitable for end-to-end trajectory optimization. We validate pdSTL on simulated obstacle avoidance, lane-change maneuvers, and real-world Crazyflie quadcopter flight experiments under aerodynamic disturbances. Results demonstrate that pdSTL achieves efficient optimization with formal probabilistic guarantees, significantly outperforming deterministic differentiable STL in maintaining safety margins under real-world uncertainty.

We study finite-horizon queue peaks in generalized switches, a standard stochastic-network model in which many queues share constrained service resources. Arrivals may be dependent, nonstationary, and responsive to the system history; the only load condition is uniform interior slack, meaning the conditional mean arrival vector stays in a fixed contraction of the capacity region. We show that this slack reshapes the finite-time peak law for drift-minimizing scheduling policies such as MaxWeight. The square-root envelope that is sharp without slack persists only up to a geometry-dependent threshold; beyond that threshold, the running maximum grows only logarithmically with the horizon, both with high probability and in expectation. The mechanism is self-normalization: in the current queue direction, the projected fluctuation scale is normalized by the stabilizing drift scale. This removes capacity geometry from the logarithmic coefficient, while geometry remains in the threshold. Matching lower bounds show that both the logarithmic term and a geometric threshold are unavoidable. When finite-time state-space collapse is available, the threshold can be sharpened using local bottleneck geometry. For generalized input-queued switches, we obtain finite-time peak bounds with tight logarithmic coefficients. Simulations illustrate the two-phase envelope, local geometric refinements, and variance-sensitive improvements predicted by the theory.

Digital twin modeling, including control and data assimilation under model uncertainty, often faces an open-ended fidelity problem: adding variables, data streams, and time scales can indefinitely increase model complexity, ultimately producing systems that are difficult to maintain, validate, interpret, and use for stress or safety testing. As an alternative, one can seek parsimonious stochastic surrogate models built only on the variables needed to describe the relevant quantities of interest. We introduce a framework for discovering such variables from observational data by identifying which candidate inputs influence the full conditional law of a target quantity, rather than only its conditional mean. This distinction is essential in stochastic, coarse-grained, or partially observed systems, where dependencies may appear through changes in variability, tail behavior, multimodality, or uncertainty rather than through deterministic functional relationships. The framework couples conditional generative modeling, which learns the conditional distribution of the target given candidate inputs, with Gaussian-process-based analysis of variance (through kernel mode decomposition), which enables iterative pruning of non-influential inputs and interpretable structure discovery. In control settings, the resulting surrogate can be interpreted as a learned Markov decision process: the method identifies not only a transition model, but also the state, action, and memory variables needed to make the learned dynamics effectively Markovian. Across examples involving stochastic dynamical systems, missing variables, PDE control, reinforcement learning, and economic data, the discovered structures yield interpretable stochastic surrogates whose downstream performance is comparable to models trained on the full variable set.

In recent years, emerging research at the intersection of quantum physics and sound synthesis has opened new conceptual and technical possibilities for instrument design and sonic exploration. This study investigates the potential of formal analogies between quantum systems and classically non-deterministic systems for the generation of tangible acoustic phenomena. Specifically, it explores how quantum mechanical concepts can serve not only as metaphors but as operative frameworks in the design of new musical tools. Building on recent theoretical work on stochastic string excitation, we present the design, fabrication, and spectral characterization of a custom-built noise-driven electroacoustic string instrument. The system implements open-loop stochastic electromagnetic actuation without feedback or pitch stabilization. We show that this excitation strategy produces a dense and uniformly distributed spectral regime that differs from conventional deterministic string excitation. This work contributes to a growing field of quantum music creation by offering a hybrid artistic-scientific platform with potential applications in live performance, experimental composition, and science education.

We introduce First-Order Trajectory Matching (FTM), a surrogate-modeling method that learns the first-order local transport of probability mass from trajectories of stochastic systems. By matching the symmetric first-order motion of trajectories, FTM learns the probability current velocity, whose flow preserves time marginals to match ensemble averages, while also capturing current-like trajectory quantities such as fluxes, circulations, and barrier-crossing currents. FTM learns the current velocity directly from trajectories, avoiding drift, diffusion, and score estimation. Our stability analysis separates discretization error from sampling variance and shows that the one-step simulation-free FTM loss is stable when temporal resolution and sample size are properly balanced. Across stochastic dynamical systems and PDE examples, we empirically demonstrate that FTM provides trajectory-aware ensemble predictions at low, deterministic-rollout cost.

We present a novel theoretical framework for deep reinforcement learning (RL) in continuous environments by modeling the problem as a continuous-time stochastic process, drawing on insights from stochastic control. Building on previous work, we introduce a viable model of actor-critic algorithm that incorporates both exploration and stochastic transitions. For single-hidden-layer neural networks, we show that the state of the environment can be formulated as a two time scale process: the environment time and the gradient time. Within this formulation, we characterize how the time-dependent random variables that represent the environment's state and estimate of the cumulative discounted return evolve over gradient steps in the infinite width limit of two-layer networks. Using the theory of stochastic differential equations, we derive, for the first time in continuous RL, an equation describing the infinitesimal change in the state distribution at each gradient step, under a vanishingly small learning rate. Overall, our work provides a novel nonparametric formulation for studying overparametrized neural actor-critic algorithms. We empirically corroborate our theoretical result using a toy continuous control task.

The Schrödinger Bridge Problem connects an initial distribution to a terminal one along a minimum-energy stochastic process. Its mean-field extension, the Mean-Field Schrödinger Bridge, governs interacting populations whose dynamics and costs depend on the collective distribution. When these interactions are nonlocal, their direct evaluation scales quadratically with the population size, making large ensembles intractable within FBSDE-based solvers. We replace these terms with neural surrogates in state and time, trained on empirical interaction values along sampled trajectories and embedded in a four-stage alternating scheme that updates the forward and backward potentials and the surrogates in turn, while preserving forward--backward consistency and the prescribed endpoint marginals. We derive Grönwall-type stability bounds quantifying how surrogate errors propagate to the generated trajectories under a small-gain condition. On crowd-navigation and high-dimensional opinion-dynamics benchmarks, the surrogates reproduce the trajectories obtained with exact evaluation at reduced training cost. The advantage is most significant when the interaction is a nonlinear functional of the measure, such as the normalized bounded-confidence drift, for which random-batch subsampling is biased and unstable whereas the learned surrogate remains accurate.

Social systems consist of networks of individuals who influence one another through social interactions. Studying how processes evolve on these networks can help us better understand patterns of social behavior. We study a system that couples online and offline social activity and investigate how to learn effective models directly from data using Weak Form Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (WSINDy), a method for discovering governing equations. We assess learning performance using data generated by a mean-field approximation model of a stochastic interaction process on networks and test how accurately the system can be recovered under different noise levels. Our results show that using more trajectories improves accuracy when noise is high, but only a small number of additional trajectories is needed to gain most of the benefit, with little improvement beyond that. We also learn effective ODE models from averaged stochastic data on networks. When traditional mean-field approximations fail, identifying continuum ODEs directly from stochastic processes yields efficient models that better match the data and provide deeper insight into the underlying dynamics.

Existing work on population dynamics inference often focuses on flows arising from vector fields that are the gradients of scalar potentials. Among all admissible flows that are compatible with the population dynamics, gradient flows are optimal in a specific sense: they minimize kinetic energy. The selection of fields based on different criteria corresponds to a gauge freedom when determining population dynamics, which we leverage in this work. We propose Non-Gradient Inference Flows (NGIF), an algorithm to infer non-gradient population dynamics using a weak formulation of the continuity equation. This allows us to parameterize general vector fields and choose other selection criteria beyond minimal kinetic energy. We demonstrate on a variety of low- and high-dimensional physics problems that this more general approach improves distributional accuracy over gradient-restricted baselines and better captures non-potential transport.

We introduce the Estimated Dynamic Equilibrium Model (EDEM), an agent-based framework that treats supply and demand as a coupled stochastic process driven by heterogeneous, noisy agent valuations. The model's primary technical contribution is the identification of a generative mechanism for persistent disequilibrium: when market-clearing prices are sequentially sampled from the upper tail of noisy bid distributions and recycled as inputs for future valuations, expected prices drift upward despite strictly zero-mean estimation errors. We derive this order-statistic bias in closed form for i.i.d. uniform bids and use simulations to show that compounding this bias across epochs yields exponential price growth without requiring assumptions of investor optimism or irrationality. This framework extends Miller's divergence-of-opinion theory to a dynamic setting, recovering Walrasian equilibrium and Miller's static premium as limiting cases. Through controlled experiments and sensitivity analysis on a simulated real-estate neighborhood, we identify six distinct regimes-ranging from band-stability to runaway bubbles-emerging from a single agent ruleset. These results offer a potential explanation for the contradictory findings in the empirical divergence-of-opinion literature and suggest that machine-learning valuation algorithms may inadvertently amplify this inherent statistical bias.

For stochastic process models, parameter inference is often severely bottlenecked by computationally expensive likelihood functions. Simulation-based inference (SBI) bypasses this restriction by constructing amortized surrogate likelihoods, but most SBI methods assume a black-box data generating process. While these surrogates are exact in the limit of infinite training data, practical scenarios force a strict tradeoff between model quality and simulation cost. In this work, we loosen the black-box assumption of SBI to improve this tradeoff for structured stochastic process models. Specifically, for neural network likelihood surrogates trained via probabilistic classification, we propose to augment the standard binary cross-entropy loss with exact score information $\nabla_θ\log p(x \mid θ)$ and adaptive weighting based on loss gradients. We evaluate our approach on case studies involving network dynamics and spatial processes, demonstrating that our method improves surrogate quality at a drastically lower computational cost than generating more training data. Notably, in some cases, our approach achieves downstream inference performance equivalent to a 10x increase in training data with less than a 1.1x increase in training time.

Turbulent dynamical systems are characterized by nonlinear interactions and stochastic effects that generate coupled statistical quantities, such as non-zero higher-order moments, which are difficult to capture from data with accuracy. We propose a two-stage data-driven modeling framework that combines symbolic regression with generative models to jointly identify the governing dynamics and predict their key statistical quantities. In Stage I of the framework, the Finite Expression Method (FEX) is adopted to discover closed-form expressions of the deterministic dynamics, recovering nonlinear interaction terms and external forcing without predefined libraries. In Stage II, generative models are introduced to learn the residual stochastic components as a refined correction to the model error from the Stage I approximation, enabling accurate characterization of higher-order statistics. Theoretical analysis establishes the consistency of the symbolic estimator and quantifies the estimation error in terms of data size and numerical discretization. The model performance is verified through detailed numerical experiments on the stochastic triad models across multiple regimes, demonstrating that the framework successfully recovers interaction terms and forcing expressions, and accurately predicts statistical moments up to order five. These results highlight the potential of integrating interpretable symbolic discovery with data-driven stochastic modeling for complex turbulent systems.

Deep stochastic processes have recently become a central paradigm for image enhancement, with many methods explicitly conditioning the stochastic trajectory on the degraded input. However, the relationship between these conditional processes and standard diffusion models remains unclear. In this work, we introduce a unified perspective on stochastic image enhancement by classifying recent methods into three families of continuous-time processes: unconditional diffusion models, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) processes, and diffusion bridges. We show that all of these approaches arise from a common stochastic differential equation (SDE) formulation. This framework makes explicit that seemingly disparate methods differ primarily in their drift and diffusion terms, terminal distributions, and boundary conditions, while schedulers and samplers constitute orthogonal design choices. Leveraging this unification, we conduct a controlled empirical study across multiple image enhancement tasks using identical architectures and training protocols. Our results reveal no consistently dominant method; instead, we identify and disentangle the specific design choices that most strongly influence performance. Finally, we release ItoVision, a modular PyTorch library that implements the unified framework and enables rapid prototyping and fair comparison of stochastic image enhancement methods.

Generating continuous-time, continuous-space stochastic processes (e.g., videos, weather forecasts) conditioned on partial observations (e.g., first and last frames) is a fundamental challenge. Existing approaches, (e.g., diffusion models), suffer from key limitations: (1) noise-to-data evolution fails to capture structural similarity between states close in physical time and has unstable integration in low-step regimes; (2) random noise injected is insensitive to the physical process's time elapsed, resulting in incorrect dynamics; (3) they overlook conditioning on arbitrary subsets of states (e.g., irregularly sampled timesteps, future observations). We propose ABC: Any-Subset Autoregressive Models via Non-Markovian Diffusion Bridges in Continuous Time and Space. Crucially, we model the process with one continual SDE whose time variable and intermediate states track the real time and process states. This has provable advantages: (1) the starting point for generating future states is the already-close previous state, rather than uninformative noise; (2) random noise injection scales with physical time elapsed, encouraging physically plausible dynamics with similar time-adjacent states. We derive SDE dynamics via changes-of-measure on path space, yielding another advantage: (3) path-dependent conditioning on arbitrary subsets of the state history and/or future. To learn these dynamics, we derive a path- and time-dependent extension of denoising score matching. Our experiments show ABC's superiority to competing methods on multiple domains, including video generation and weather forecasting.

Decision makers exploiting photonic chaotic dynamics obtained by semiconductor lasers provide an ultrafast approach to solving multi-armed bandit problems by using a temporal optical signal as the driving source for sequential decisions. In such systems, the sampling interval of the chaotic waveform shapes the temporal correlation of the resulting time series, and experiments have reported that decision accuracy depends strongly on this autocorrelation property. However, it remains unclear whether the benefit of autocorrelation can be explained by a minimal mathematical model. Here, we analyze a stochastic-process model for solving the two-armed bandit problem based on time series, where the threshold and a two-valued Markov signal evolve jointly. Numerical results reveal an environment-dependent structure: negative (positive) autocorrelation is optimal in reward-rich (reward-poor) environments. These findings show that negative autocorrelation of the time series is advantageous when the sum of the winning probabilities is more than one, whereas positive autocorrelation is useful when the sum of the winning probabilities is less than one. Moreover, the performance is independent of autocorrelation if the sum of the winning probabilities equals one, which is mathematically clarified. This study paves the way for solving the two-armed bandit problems for reinforcement learning applications in wireless communications and robotics.

Neural networks are widely used, yet their analysis and verification remain challenging. We present a Lean~4 formalization covering both deterministic and stochastic models. We first formalize Hopfield networks -- recurrent networks that store patterns as stable states -- and prove their convergence, and the correctness of Hebbian learning, the rule that updates parameters to encode patterns. We then turn to stochastic networks, whose probabilistic updates converge to a stationary distribution: we formalize the dynamics and learning of Boltzmann machines and prove their ergodicity -- convergence to a \emph{unique} stationary distribution -- via a new formalization of the Perron--Frobenius theorem.

We propose a framework for generative modeling of continuous-time processes from irregularly and asynchronously recorded data. It is based on the matching of generators and accommodates discontinuous trajectories. Analytical formulas for diffusion and jump bridges yield a family of reference generators that a neural network is trained to match. The key ingredient is that, for our constructed jump bridge, a parametrization of the jump kernel densities by scaled Gaussians admits closed-form expressions for the Kullback-Leibler divergence, allowing simulation-free training.

Diffusion models have proven to be a flexible and effective framework for modelling probability distributions on finite-dimensional spaces. However, many physical modelling problems such as time series are naturally described over function spaces. In this work we apply diffusion models to such stochastic processes. To do so we consider a spectral representation of the data, obtained using a kernel, thereby dissociating the stochastic part of the processes from their space-time structure. As a result, the stochasticity of the processes is entirely encoded in the spectral coefficients, which we truncate and model using standard finite-dimensional diffusion models. By truncating the representation in the spectral domain we ensure our resulting model defines valid stochastic processes, thereby naturally satisfying consistency and exchangeability criteria. Projecting our spectral diffusion models back to the original input space, we show that for any given marginals our approach corresponds to a diffusion model with correlated noise, with explicit covariance matrix given by the kernel. We demonstrate our method's effectiveness for modelling various multimodal datasets as well as conditional sampling by amortising our models with respect to a context set.