Trajectory Prediction

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Overview

Trajectory prediction estimates future paths from past motion and cues such as maps, goals, other agents, and environmental conditions. Common methods include Transformers, graph neural networks, and state-space models, alongside probabilistic approaches such as variational autoencoders, diffusion, and flow matching that represent multiple possible futures. Physics-based models, retrieval, and language or vision-language models are also used, especially when forecasts must support planning or work across domains. A central challenge is balancing accuracy and efficient inference with calibrated uncertainty, realistic and safe behavior, and reliable performance under distribution shifts; displacement benchmarks alone may not capture success in closed-loop settings.

Latest papers

CardsList

187 papers17 papers in the last four weeks, down 15% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

  1. DynoJEPP: Joint Estimation, Prediction and Planning in Dynamic Environments

    May 13, 2026Mikolaj Kliniewski, Jesse Morris, Yiduo Wang +2Factor Graph OptimizationSafe Robot Navigation

    Australian Centre For Robotics (ACFR), School of Aerospace, Mechanical and Mechatronic Engineering (AMME), University of Sydney, 2006 Sydney, Australia.

  2. AssemblyBench: Physics-Aware Assembly of Complex Industrial Objects

    May 13, 2026Danrui Li, Jiahao Zhang, Bernhard Egger +4Object Pose EstimationRobot Manipulation Benchmarks

    Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, USA · The Australian National University, Australia · Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Germany +1

  3. Encore: Conditioning Trajectory Forecasting via Biased Ego Rehearsals

    May 12, 2026Conghao Wong, Ziqian Zou, Xinge YouMulti-Agent Trajectory PredictionTrajectory Prediction

    Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, Hubei, China.

  4. JACoP: Joint Alignment for Compliant Multi-Agent Prediction

    May 12, 2026Qingze Liu, Alen Mrdovic, Danrui Li +3Pedestrian Trajectory PredictionMarkov Random Fields

    Rutgers University, New Brunswick · The College of New Jersey

  5. Heteroscedastic Diffusion for Multi-Agent Trajectory Modeling

    May 11, 2026Guillem Capellera, Antonio Rubio, Luis Ferraz +1Multi-Agent Trajectory PredictionTrajectory Prediction

    Institut de Rob`otica i Inform`atica Industrial, CSIC-UPC, Barcelona, 08028, Spain · Kognia Sports Intelligence, 08960, Sant Just Desvern, Spain

  6. Temporal Sampling Frequency Matters: A Capacity-Aware Study of End-to-End Driving Trajectory Prediction

    May 11, 2026Yumao Liu, Tao Liu, Xiangyu Li +2Autonomous Driving DatasetsEnd-to-End Autonomous Driving

    The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou)

  7. Real-Time Evaluation of Autonomous Systems under Adversarial Attacks

    May 5, 2026Adithya Mohan, Xujun Xie, Venkatesh Thirugnana Sambandham +1Autonomous Driving Safety EvaluationAdversarial Robustness

    AI Motion Institute, Technische Hochschule Ingolstadt, Germany

  8. Recall to Predict: Grounding Motion Forecasting in Interpretable Motion Bank

    May 2, 2026Abhishek Vivekanandan, Ahmed Abouelazm, J. Marius ZöllnerMulti-Agent Trajectory PredictionMultimodal Trajectory Prediction

    FZI Forschungszentrum Informatik · Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) Karlsruhe, Germany

  9. Dynamic-TD3: A Novel Algorithm for UAV Path Planning with Dynamic Obstacle Trajectory Prediction

    Apr 30, 2026Wentao Chen, Jingtang Chen, Mingjian Fu +4Reinforcement LearningUAV Navigation

  10. SceneSelect: Selective Learning for Trajectory Scene Classification and Expert Scheduling

    Apr 27, 2026Xinrun Wang, Deshun Xia, Yuxi Sun +1Multi-Agent Trajectory PredictionExpert Routing

    School of Computer Science, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan) · School of Information Engineering, Wuhan University of Technology · School of Mathematics and Statistics, Wuhan University of Technology

  11. Frozen LLMs as Map-Aware Spatio-Temporal Reasoners for Vehicle Trajectory Prediction

    Apr 23, 2026Yanjiao Liu, Jiawei Liu, Xun Gong +1Multi-Agent Trajectory PredictionAutonomous Driving

    School of Artificial Intelligence, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, PR China.

  12. Chatting about Conditional Trajectory Prediction

    Apr 20, 2026Yuxiang Zhao, Wei Huang, Haipeng Zeng +2Multi-Agent Trajectory PredictionHuman Behavior Prediction

    Sun Yat-sen University · Alibaba Group

  13. ARMove: Learning to Predict Human Mobility through Agentic Reasoning

    Apr 19, 2026Chuyue Wang, Jie Feng, Yuxi Wu +2Transfer LearningAgentic Reasoning

    Tencent · Zhongguancun Academy · Alibaba Group +1

  14. EdgeVTP: Exploration of Latency-efficient Trajectory Prediction for Edge-based Embedded Vision Applications

    Apr 18, 2026Seungjin Kim, Reza Jafarpourmarzouni, Christopher Neff +2Efficient Neural Network InferenceEdge Inference

    University of Wyoming · University of North Carolina at Charlotte · North Carolina A&T State University

  15. Forecasting the Past: Gradient-Based Distribution Shift Detection in Trajectory Prediction

    Apr 14, 2026Michele De Vita, Julian Wiederer, Vasileios BelagiannisDistribution Shift DetectionOOD Detection

    Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Germany · Mercedes-Benz AG, Germany

  16. EagleVision: A Multi-Task Benchmark for Cross-Domain Perception in High-Speed Autonomous Racing

    Apr 13, 2026Zakhar Yagudin, Murad Mebrahtu, Ren Jin +5Autonomous RacingLidar-Based 3D Object Detection

    Skolkovo Institute of Science, Intelligent Space Robotics Laboratory, Center for Engineering Systems and Sciences · Khalifa University, KUCARS-KU Center for Autonomous Robotic Systems, Department of Computer Science · Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing Key Laboratory of UAV Autonomous Control

  17. MAVEN-T: Reinforced Heterogeneous Distillation for Real-Time Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction

    Apr 11, 2026Wenchang Duan, Zhenguo Gao, Jinguo Xian +1Model CompressionMulti-Agent Trajectory Prediction

    School of Mathematical Sciences, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China · Bio-X Institutes, Key Laboratory for the Genetics of Developmental and Neuropsychiatric Disorders, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030, China · Shanghai Key Laboratory of Psychotic Disorders, and Brain Science and Technology Research Center, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030, China

  18. Envisioning the Future, One Step at a Time

    Apr 10, 2026Stefan Andreas Baumann, Jannik Wiese, Tommaso Martorella +2Trajectory PredictionProbabilistic Trajectory Prediction

    Munich Center for Machine Learning (MCML) · Netflix

  19. PilotBench: A Benchmark for General Aviation Agents with Safety Constraints

    Apr 10, 2026Yalun Wu, Haotian Liu, Zhoujun Li +1AI Agent Safety BenchmarksTrajectory Prediction

    School of Computing, National University of Singapore, China · School of Informatics, Xiamen University, China · CESS, Beihang University, China

  20. RankFormer: A Propose-then-Select Transformer for Multi-Agent Multimodal Trajectory Prediction

    Apr 8, 2026Diyi Liu, Zihan Niu, Tu Xu +2Multi-Agent Trajectory PredictionMultimodal Trajectory Prediction

    College of Metropolitan Transportation, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China · Zhejiang Police College, Zhejiang, China

  21. Modeling Patient Care Trajectories with Transformer Hawkes Processes

    Apr 7, 2026Saumya Pandey, Varun ChandolaTrajectory PredictionLongitudinal EHR Modeling

    Computational and Data-Enabled Sciences, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, USA · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, USA

  22. SAIL: Scene-aware Adaptive Iterative Learning for Long-Tail Trajectory Prediction in Autonomous Vehicles

    Apr 6, 2026Bin Rao, Haicheng Liao, Chengyue Wang +3Trajectory PredictionVehicle Trajectory Prediction

    State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Macau, Macau SAR, China · State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City and Department of Computer and Information Science, University of Macau, Macau SAR, China · Department of Automotive Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China +2

  23. Forecasting Motion in the Wild

    Apr 1, 2026Neerja Thakkar, Shiry Ginosar, Jacob Walker +3Trajectory PredictionMotion Representation Learning

    UC Berkeley · Google DeepMind · Toyota Technological Institute at Chicago

  24. COTTA: Context-Aware Transfer Adaptation for Trajectory Prediction in Autonomous Driving

    Apr 1, 2026Seohyoung Park, Jaeyeol Lim, Seoyoung Ju +3Trajectory PredictionAutonomous Driving

    Ewha Womans University · OUTTA · Seoul National University +2

  25. Uncertainty-Aware Trajectory Prediction: A Unified Framework Harnessing Positional and Semantic Uncertainties

    Mar 31, 2026Jintao Sun, Hu Zhang, Gangyi Ding +1Probabilistic Trajectory PredictionTrajectory Prediction

    School of Computer Science and Technology, Beijing Institute of Technology, China 100081. · CSIRO DATA61, Australia. · Faculty of Science and Technology and Institute of Collaborative Innovation, University of Macau, China 999078.

  26. SHARP: Short-Window Streaming for Accurate and Robust Prediction in Motion Forecasting

    Mar 30, 2026Alexander Prutsch, Christian Fruhwirth-Reisinger, David Schinagl +1Trajectory PredictionVehicle Trajectory Prediction

    Institute of Visual Computing, Graz University of Technology

  27. Predictive Modeling in AUV Navigation: A Perspective from Kalman Filtering

    Mar 28, 2026Zizhan Tang, Yao Liu, Jessica LiuAutonomous Underwater NavigationRobot State Estimation

    Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA · Department of Computer and Information Science, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA

  28. Impact of geophysical fields on Deep Learning-based Lagrangian drift simulations

    Mar 27, 2026Daria Botvynko, Carlos Granero-Belinchon, Simon Van Gennip +2Trajectory Prediction

    Lab-STICC_OSE, IMT Atlantique - MEE, IMT Atlantique · Lab-STICC, UMR CNRS 6285, IMT Atlantique, Odyssey, INRIA, Brest, France · ODYSSEY, IMT Atlantique - MEE, Lab-STICC_OSE +5

  29. TIGFlow-GRPO: Trajectory Forecasting via Interaction-Aware Flow Matching and Reward-Guided Optimization

    Mar 26, 2026Xuepeng Jing, Wenhuan Lu, Hao Meng +2Trajectory PredictionPedestrian Trajectory Prediction

    Tianjin University, Tianjin, China

  30. Goal-Oriented Reactive Simulation for Closed-Loop Trajectory Prediction

    Mar 25, 2026Harsh Yadav, Tobias MeisenTrajectory PredictionAutonomous Driving

    University of Wuppertal, 42119, Germany